[Table_Title] 晶盛机电（300316.SZ） 业绩低于预期，材料业务盈利能力回落 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 业绩低于预期，主要系材料毛利率下滑影响。公司发布 2024 年中报， 24H1 公司实现收入 101.5 亿元，同比+20.7%；归母净利润 20.96 亿 元，同比-4.97%；扣非归母净利润 20.94 亿元，同比+1.02%。单 Q2 来看，收入实现 56.4 亿元，同比+17.3%；归母净利润 10.3 亿元，同 比-22.2%；扣非归母净利润 9.92 亿元，同比-17.2%。Q2 整体毛利率 31.8%，行业贝塔的下行已开始从订单传导至业绩。 ⚫ 坩埚价格显著回落，净利率下降至 42%。业绩低于预期主要系材料毛 利率快速下降，24H1 材料毛利率 40.15%，同比下降 14.5pct。根据公 司中报，上半年宁夏鑫晶收入 16.6 亿元，同比+22.1%，净利润 6.9 亿 元，同比+1.5%。由于石英砂供需紧张的格局解除，当前坩埚价格已显 著回落，坩埚净利率 42%，同比下滑 8pct，但仍维持在相对较高水平。 ⚫ 设备毛利率稳中略降，合同负债开始下降。 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|环保 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 环保行业深度跟踪 绿色转型聚焦价格机制，重视固废中报业绩趋势 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 建议关注：（1）固废：瀚蓝环境、光大环境、海螺创业、三峰环境； （2）水务：北控水务集团、洪城环境等；（3）设备类：景津装备、聚 光科技、美埃科技等；（4）再生资源：赛恩斯、朗坤环境等。 ⚫ 加快绿色转型，其中垃圾焚烧、水务价格机制理顺为重点。本周中共中 央、国务院发布《关于加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型的意见》，提出 2030 年 15 万节能环保产业规模的目标。本次政策涉及细分行业、建 设方向等内容众多，其中"完善绿色转型价格政策"是我们认为的环保 政策要点：（1）固废，推动生活垃圾收费方式改革（历史垃圾收费比例 低、征收困难。可参考深圳，通过附加水价征收的方式征收）；（2）水 务，完善居民阶梯水价等。水务、固废板块历史回款依旧可控，未来价 格机制的理顺下回款保障度进一步提高，重点关注历史回款健康，具 备分红提高的固废、水务公司。 ⚫ 重视中报业绩兑现：固废公司回款、涨价亮点频出。本周已有部分公司 发布中报业绩，其中 ...

Xm l [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|商贸零售 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 批零社服行业 7 月社零同增 2.7%，必选表现优于可选 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 2024 年 7 月社零同比增长 2.7%。据国家统计局，2024 年 7 月我国社 零总额 3.78 万亿元/YOY+2.7%，增速较 6 月提升 0.7pct。其中，除汽 车以外的消费品零售总额 3.40 万亿元/YOY+3.6%。分地区看，乡村社 零增速高于城镇，7 月城镇社零总额 3.27 万亿元/YOY+2.4%，乡村社 零总额 0.51 万亿元/YOY+4.6%。分类型看，7 月商品零售 3.34 万亿 元/YOY+2.7%，餐饮收入 0.44 万亿元/YOY+3.0%，增速较 6 月分别 增长 1.2pct、下滑 2.4pct。 ⚫ 分品类看，可选消费品有所承压。粮油食品/饮料零售额 7 月同比增速 分别为+9.9%（增速环降 0.9pct）、+6.1%（增速环升 4.4pct），烟酒零 售额 7 月同比增速-0.1%（增速环降 5.3pct）。可选消费品中，化妆品 和金银珠宝零售额 7 月同比 ...

[Table_Title] 九丰能源（605090.SH） 能服+特气加速成长，稳定分红兼顾成长 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 优化船舶非经常性收益增加，24H1 业绩同比+55.2%。2024 年上半年 实现营业收入 112.67 亿元（同比+2.0%），归母净利润 11.06 亿元（同 比+55.2%），其中 Q1 同比+6.3%、Q2 同比+139.9%。营收方面，清 洁能源业务收入稳定，能服和特种气体业务增长趋势良好，贡献营收增 量。归母净利同比增加 3.93 亿元，主要系二季度处置 1 艘 LNG 运输 船，获利 3.36 亿元计入非经常性收益，上半年扣非归母净利润 7.88 亿 元（同比+1.8%）。24H1 实现经营性现金流 12.20 亿元（同比+72.0%）。 ⚫ 能服+特气加速成长、三大业务稳步向前。清洁能源业务稳中求升，上 半年公司 LNG、LPG 业务销气量提升，海气+陆气"双气源保障下，顺 价能力稳定。能源服务业务 24H1 营收同比+132%，毛利率提升至 26%（23 年约 21%），能源作业聚焦辅助排采和回收，24H1 回收处理 作业量约 18 万吨；能源物流 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Views - Recent market dynamics show a slight decline in domestic thermal coal prices, while international high-calorie coal prices remain strong. The dual coke prices continue to show weakness. As of August 16, the CCI 5500 kcal coal price is reported at 842 RMB/ton, down 9 RMB/ton week-on-week. The annual long-term contract price for 5500 kcal coal at ports is 699 RMB/ton, down 1 RMB/ton [2][9][36] - The mid-term support for coal prices is expected to come from several factors: (1) no significant positive growth in domestic supply; (2) clear support from seasonal demand in the second half of the year; (3) recent inventory levels are decreasing compared to last year [2][38] Market Dynamics - Domestic thermal coal prices have shown a slight decline, with prices in major production areas also decreasing. For instance, Shanxi region prices fell by 6 RMB/ton, while prices in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi decreased by 4-10 RMB/ton and 5 RMB/ton, respectively [9][22] - Internationally, the FOB price for 5500 kcal thermal coal from Newcastle, Australia is reported at 87.25 USD/ton, down 0.3% from the previous week [9] - The coal mining capacity utilization rate as of August 14 is 86.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous week. Coal inventory at 100 sample coal mines is 314,000 tons, up 0.4% week-on-week [13][21] Industry Perspective - The coal industry index has increased by 2.0%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.5 percentage points. Year-to-date, the coal index has risen by 3.8%, also outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.3 percentage points [35] - The report highlights that while thermal coal prices have shown slight fluctuations, they are supported by seasonal demand and low inventory levels. The overall expectation is for coal prices to improve as inventory pressures ease and macroeconomic expectations become more favorable [2][38] Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: 1. China Shenhua (A, H) and Shaanxi Coal & Chemical Industry for stable dividends 2. China Coal Energy (A, H) and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (A, H) for low valuations and long-term growth potential 3. Pingmei Shenma Energy, Huaibei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, and others for mid-term benefits from demand recovery and production restoration [3]

回购微量操作，长债利率波 动加大 [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 银行行业 春江水已暖 ——银行投资观察 20240818 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 板块表现方面：本期（2024/8/12-2024/8/16），Wind 全 A 下跌 0.05%， 银行板块整体（中信一级行业）上涨 2.7%，排在所有行业第 1 位，跑 赢万得全A。国有大行、股份行、城商行、农商行变动幅度分别为 4.30%、 2.32%、1.51%、1.81%。恒生综合指数上涨 1.6%，H 股银行涨幅 3.7%， 跑赢恒生综合指数，跑赢 A 股银行。 个股表现方面：Wind 数据显示 A 股银行普遍上涨，涨幅靠前为交通银 行上涨 5.60%、邮储银行上涨 4.86%。H 股银行涨幅靠前为交通银行 上涨 6.70%、工商银行上涨 5.24%，跌幅前三为渤海银行下跌 2.17%、 江西银行下跌 1.64%、郑州银行下跌 1.33%。 北向资金方面：Wind 数据显示银行业北向资金持股占比为 2.32%，较 上期末增持 2.8bp，板块获增最高为瑞丰银行。 银行转债方面：Win ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to China Software International (00354 HK) with a target price of HKD 5 31 [1] Core Views - The company reported H1 2024 revenue of RMB 7 926 billion (YoY -6 2%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 286 million (YoY -18 6%) due to reduced demand from core clients [1][2] - Gross margin decreased by 0 6 percentage points YoY to 23 1% while sales expenses increased by 1 2% to RMB 426 million [1][2] - Cloud and intelligent business revenue grew by 2 0% YoY to RMB 3 368 billion accounting for 42 5% of total revenue [1][2] - The company is advancing its "1+3" strategic layout focusing on cloud intelligence AIGC HarmonyOS and AIoT applications and enterprise digital transformation services [1][3] - In AIGC the company is developing model factory services and collaborating with leading clients in finance energy and healthcare sectors [3] - In the HarmonyOS ecosystem the company is building an independent IoT platform and expanding into industries like military energy and transportation [3] - The company is strengthening its position in the ERP market targeting state-owned enterprises and leveraging Huawei Cloud partnerships [4][5] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is expected to decline slightly in 2024 but recover with steady growth in 2025-2026 [1][5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 676 million in 2024 and RMB 759 million in 2025 [1][5] - The company's PE ratio for 2024-2025 is estimated at 13 5x and 12 0x respectively [5] Business Segments - Core business revenue in H1 2024 was RMB 4 558 billion (YoY -11 5%) while cloud and intelligent business revenue reached RMB 3 368 billion (YoY +2 0%) [2][5] - The top five clients contributed 60 0% of total service revenue and the top ten clients contributed 68 8% [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is deepening its collaboration with Huawei becoming a comprehensive partner in Huawei Cloud and leading in capability certifications [5] - It is expanding internationally with R&D and delivery centers in Thailand Japan Singapore Saudi Arabia and the UAE [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mingyuan Cloud with a target price of HKD 2.65 per share [1] Core Views - Mingyuan Cloud's 24H1 revenue decreased by 5.5% YoY to RMB 720 million, with a net loss of RMB 115 million and an adjusted net loss of RMB 17 million [1][2] - The company's gross margin improved by 0.4 percentage points YoY to 80.2% [2] - Cloud services revenue declined by 3.6% YoY to RMB 610 million, accounting for 88.5% of total revenue [1][2] - The company has a strong cash position with RMB 4.36 billion in cash and cash equivalents, and no bank financing [2] Business Segments Cloud Services - Customer Relationship Management (CRM) revenue decreased by 6.0% YoY to RMB 440 million, with a 9.1% decline in the number of sales offices [2] - Project Construction revenue increased by 4.9% YoY to RMB 60 million, driven by higher ARPU [3] - Asset Management & Operations revenue grew by 30.5% YoY to RMB 46 million, with a customer retention rate of 94% [3] - Tianji PaaS platform revenue decreased by 12.0% YoY to RMB 62 million, but the platform has been fully adapted for domestic use and integrated with AI capabilities [4] ERP Solutions - Localized deployment software and services revenue declined by 15.1% YoY to RMB 108 million, reflecting cautious IT spending by private residential developers [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on deepening relationships with high-quality state-owned enterprise (SOE) clients and leveraging AI to upgrade products [5] - Mingyuan Cloud is expanding internationally, with initial breakthroughs in Southeast Asia and plans to establish local teams in Malaysia and Hong Kong [5] - The company is implementing cost-saving measures and improving operational efficiency [5] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 1.59 billion, RMB 1.593 billion, and RMB 1.629 billion, respectively [6] - Adjusted net profit is expected to turn positive in 2024 and continue to improve in 2025 and 2026 [6] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to increase as SaaS revenue grows, with further optimization of expense ratios [6] Valuation - The report values Mingyuan Cloud at 3x PS for 2024, based on comparable SaaS companies such as Adobe, Salesforce, Kingdee, and Glodon [6] - The target price of HKD 2.65 per share reflects the company's improving business structure and strong cash position [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 12.0%, PPOP growth of 22.8%, and net profit growth of 19.6% for the first half of 2024, with performance driven by scale growth, non-interest income, and a decrease in the cost-to-income ratio [2]. - The net interest margin for the first half of 2024 was 2.79%, a decrease of 4 basis points from the previous quarter, primarily due to a decline in the yield on interest-earning assets [2]. - Non-interest income saw a significant increase of 52.9%, largely driven by investment gains from trading clients, which rose by 95.96% year-on-year [2]. - The cost-to-income ratio improved to 35.18%, down 5.85 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to a reduction in employee expenses [2]. Performance Metrics - The company’s loan growth rate was 11.3% year-on-year, showing a decline compared to previous periods, with retail loan growth being particularly weak [2]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.76% as of the end of Q2 2024, while the overdue loan ratio increased to 1.54%, up 32 basis points from the previous year [2]. - The provision coverage ratio was 538.81%, slightly down from the previous quarter, indicating a solid overall asset quality and risk absorption capacity [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profit growth rates of 17.36% and 13.36% for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with EPS projected at 1.41 and 1.59 CNY per share [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 4.91X for 2024 and 4.33X for 2025, with a PB ratio of 0.68X for 2024 and 0.59X for 2025 [2]. - The report sets a reasonable value of 10.91 CNY per share for the company, suggesting a PB valuation of approximately 1.1X for 2024 [2].

Quantitative Factors and Construction Process - **Factor Name**: Order Size and Duration Factors **Construction Idea**: The factors are constructed by simultaneously analyzing the "size" and "duration" dimensions of stock orders, leveraging Level 2 tick data to identify patterns in large and long-duration orders that may indicate informed trading activity[6][21][22] **Construction Process**: 1. Define "large orders" and "long orders" as those exceeding the mean plus N standard deviations of order size or duration, respectively, based on Gaussian distribution assumptions[22][23] 2. Combine "buy order ID" and "sell order ID" attributes to analyze both buying and selling perspectives[21][22] 3. Construct 16 base factors by combining "large/small" and "long/short" dimensions for both buy and sell orders (e.g., BB_LB_BS_LS for "large buy, long buy, large sell, long sell")[21][22] 4. Apply three standard deviation thresholds (1.0, 1.5, 2.0) and five trading time windows (full day, first 15 minutes, first 30 minutes, last 30 minutes, last 15 minutes) to create 240 factors[23][24] **Evaluation**: The factors effectively capture independent dimensions of order size and duration, as evidenced by low correlation coefficients (-0.19 to 0.19) between size and duration factors[16][19][22] Factor Backtesting Results - **240 Factors**: Over 50 factors achieved RankIC averages above 8%, with 18 factors exceeding 10% during the 2021-2023 backtesting period[24][27][28] Selected Order Factor Portfolio Construction - **Portfolio Construction**: 1. Select top-K stocks based on factor values (e.g., Top-30, Top-50) 2. Buy at t+1 average price and sell at t+21 average price, with 20-day rebalancing and 0.3% transaction fees[56][98] **Evaluation**: The selected portfolios demonstrated strong performance across multiple market segments, achieving significant excess returns compared to benchmark indices[56][98][99] Portfolio Backtesting Results **All Market Segment** - RankIC average: 13.3%, win rate: 78.3% - Top-30 portfolio: Annualized return 31.33%, max drawdown 15.39%, Sharpe ratio 1.86[56][60][98] **Entrepreneurial Board Segment** - RankIC average: 13.7%, win rate: 83.4% - Top-30 portfolio: Annualized return 27.66%, max drawdown 25.45%, Sharpe ratio 1.30[61][65][98] **CSI 300 Segment** - RankIC average: 10.5%, win rate: 64.6% - Top-30 portfolio: Annualized return 10.62%, max drawdown 12.24%, Sharpe ratio 0.70[67][69][98] **CSI 500 Segment** - RankIC average: 11.1%, win rate: 63.9% - Top-30 portfolio: Annualized return 8.79%, max drawdown 14.56%, Sharpe ratio 0.45[72][74][98] **CSI 800 Segment** - RankIC average: 11.3%, win rate: 65.6% - Top-30 portfolio: Annualized return 6.86%, max drawdown 13.96%, Sharpe ratio 0.34[77][78][98] **CSI 1000 Segment** - RankIC average: 10.7%, win rate: 67.4% - Top-30 portfolio: Annualized return 15.39%, max drawdown 16.68%, Sharpe ratio 0.84[83][85][98] **CNI 2000 Segment** - RankIC average: 12.7%, win rate: 76.5% - Top-30 portfolio: Annualized return 25.00%, max drawdown 17.50%, Sharpe ratio 1.44[90][95][98]