[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 银行行业 外部流动性环境已改善 ——银行投资观察 20240922 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 板块表现方面：本期（2024/9/16-2024/9/20），Wind 全 A 上涨 1.3%， 银行板块整体（中信一级行业）上涨 1.8%，排在所有行业第 12 位， 跑赢万得全 A。国有大行、股份行、城商行、农商行变动幅度分别为 1.92%、1.65%、1.85%、1.83%。恒生综合指数上涨 4.7%，H 股银行 涨幅 2.9%，跑输恒生综合指数，跑赢 A 股银行。 个股表现方面：Wind 数据显示 A 股银行涨幅前三为沪农商行上涨 4.26%、宁波银行上涨 4.23%、齐鲁银行上涨 3.86%，涨幅后三为无锡 银行下跌 0.20%、郑州银行持平、江苏银行上涨 0.27%。H 股银行涨 幅前三为邮储银行上涨 4.89%、农业银行上涨 4.86%、工商银行上涨 4.03%，跌幅前三为广州农商银行下跌 3.59%、渤海银行下跌 3.19%、 浙商银行下跌 1.04%。 银行转债方面：Wind 数据显示本期银行转债平 ...

Industry Rating - The semiconductor industry is rated as "Buy" [1] Core Views - In June 2024, there were 16 bidding projects, mainly from YanDong, HuaHong, and SMIC, focusing on inspection and metrology equipment [1] - From January to June 2024, there were 259 bidding projects in the sample wafer production lines, with HuaHong Semiconductor, Jita Semiconductor, and YanDong Technology leading in bidding volume [1] - In June 2024, there were 33 winning bids, with gas-liquid systems, testers, and metrology equipment being the most common, and domestic equipment accounting for 52% of the winning bids [1] - From January to June 2024, there were 712 winning bids in the sample wafer production lines, with gas-liquid systems, diffusion, and probe stations being the most common, and domestic equipment accounting for 31% of the winning bids [1] - Domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers, such as YTMC, SMEE, and NAURA, led in winning bids, with YTMC's stripping equipment, SMEE's inspection equipment, and NAURA's furnace equipment having leading winning bid ratios of 85%, 48%, and 25% respectively [1] Industry Overview - Semiconductor equipment is the foundation of the semiconductor industry, driving technological upgrades and application expansion [7] - Global wafer capacity is expanding, with China's expansion speed significantly faster than the global average [8] - In 2023, global wafer capacity was 29.6 million wafers per month (200mm equivalent), with a projected increase to 31.49 million wafers per month in 2024 [8] - China's wafer capacity in 2023 was 7.6 million wafers per month, with a projected increase to 8.6 million wafers per month in 2024 [10] - China's mature process capacity accounted for 29% of the global total in 2023, with a projected increase to 33% by 2027 [11] - Global 300mm wafer fab equipment spending is expected to reach $116.5 billion in 2025, with China's spending expected to remain at a high level of $30 billion [12] Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - Key companies to watch include NAURA, AMEC, Hwatsing, ACM Research, Piotech, Skyverse, Wanye Enterprise, Kingsemi, Huafeng Measurement & Control, Changchuan Technology, Weina, and PNC [1] - These companies are expected to benefit from the expansion of the domestic semiconductor equipment market and the deepening of the domestic substitution process [1] Market Trends and Technological Advancements - Advanced technologies such as FinFET, Nanosheet, and CFET are driving the evolution of semiconductor devices, with TSMC expected to adopt Nanosheet technology for its 2nm process [14][15] - In 3D NAND, manufacturers like Micron and Kioxia are advancing towards 2XX, 3XX, and 4XX layer NAND flash, improving storage density and I/O speed [16] - In DRAM, Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix are advancing towards 1β and 1γ technologies, with Samsung expected to launch 3D DRAM based on vertical channel transistors in 2025 [18] - Advanced packaging technologies like COWOS and HBM are in high demand due to AI applications, with COWOS-S, COWOS-L, and HBM3e technologies being developed [19][20] Domestic Substitution and Market Growth - The domestic substitution of semiconductor equipment is accelerating, driven by industrial support, national strategy, and the need for supply chain security [21] - In 2023, the global semiconductor equipment market size was $106.246 billion, with China's market size at $35.697 billion, a 29.47% year-on-year increase [22][23] - Domestic semiconductor equipment companies are expected to benefit from the expansion of the equipment market and the deepening of the domestic substitution process, with their growth driven by product competitiveness, serviceable market space, and category expansion capabilities [24][25]

[Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2024-09-23 [Table_Title] 房地产行业 24 年 8 月行业月报 量缩持续传导价跌，政策仍待升级 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 政策环境综述：政策环境稳定，一线政策仍有空间。根据我们的模型测 算，截至 24 年 9 月 20 日，全国累计四限政策力度指数从 2304（22 年 1 月）降至 851，累计下降 63%，9 月因海南多地市限购放松微降， 整体无明显变动。9 月北京表态适时取消普宅、非普宅标准，一线城市 目前四限政策仍有一定的调整空间，预期四季度随着量价的进一步出 清，将会有所调整。以旧换新作为今年大规模推进的创新机制，自 4 月 大规模推进以来有所扩围，部分推进收购类以旧换新的城市覆盖范围、 收购房源类型有所放宽，一线城市均开始推进市场化以旧换新，但目前 落地规模仍较小，对市场拉动作用有限。24 年 9 月美国超预期降息 50bp，部分缓解目前中美息差压力，或打开我国房贷利率的下行空间。 ⚫ 成交市场综述：成交量维持低位，价格持续下滑。根据统计局数据，24 年 8 月全国商品房销售金额 6 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives the company a "Buy" rating with a target price of 34.6 yuan per share, based on a 18x PE multiple for 2024 [1][2] Core Views - The company is a successful example of traditional Chinese manufacturing transitioning to overseas markets, evolving from an OEM to an OBM model with OBM revenue accounting for nearly 50% in 2023 [1] - The company has developed four key expansion tools: channel capabilities, R&D and supply chain management, M&A integration, and global layout [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which will stimulate the US housing market and inventory replenishment cycles [1] - The company's net profit is forecasted to grow by 36.6%, 21.9%, and 25.2% from 2024 to 2026, reaching 2.3, 2.8, and 3.5 billion yuan respectively [1] Industry Overview - The global tool market is driven by home renovation investments in Europe and the US, with a stable long-term growth rate of 3-5% CAGR [16][17] - The DIY culture in Europe and the US, driven by high labor costs and historical factors, accounts for over 60% of hand tool demand [17][18] - The industry is characterized by low barriers in manufacturing but high barriers in branding and channels, with OBM and channel players capturing the highest value [20][21] Company Development - The company has transitioned from an OEM to an ODM and then to an OBM model, with significant M&A activities driving its OBM revenue to nearly 50% [12][28] - The company has established a global production layout with 55% of its production capacity located overseas, mitigating risks from US-China trade tensions [53][68] - The company's core competitiveness lies in its channel capabilities, R&D and supply chain management, M&A integration, and global layout [62][63] Financial Performance - The company's revenue and net profit have shown strong growth, with a CAGR of 14.5% and 15.2% respectively from 2010 to 2023 [14] - The company's net profit is expected to grow significantly from 2024 to 2026, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and inventory replenishment cycles [1][5] - The company's ROE has been steadily increasing, reaching 15.3% in 2023, indicating strong profitability [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which will stimulate the US housing market and inventory replenishment cycles [1] - The company's OBM revenue is expected to continue growing, driven by further M&A activities and the expansion of product categories such as power tools [1][57] - The company's global production layout will be further strengthened, with new production bases in Southeast Asia expected to be operational by 2025 [69][70]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the textile and apparel industry, specifically highlighting Haizhu's growth potential in overseas markets [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the successful overseas expansion strategies of Uniqlo in Southeast Asia, which can serve as a reference for Haizhu's international growth [1][2]. - It notes that the Southeast Asian market has been experiencing rapid growth, driven by high economic growth rates and a large young population [1][2]. Summary by Sections Uniqlo's Southeast Asia Development Review - Uniqlo's overseas revenue has surpassed domestic revenue since FY2018, becoming a core growth driver [1]. - The company has successfully expanded in Southeast Asia, benefiting from economic growth and a youthful demographic [1][2]. - Uniqlo's expansion can be divided into three phases: domestic market development (1984-1997), rapid growth (1998-2010), and accelerated overseas expansion (2011-present) [1][10]. Successful Strategies of Uniqlo in Southeast Asia - The expansion strategy is influenced by GDP per capita, population density, and market potential [2]. - Uniqlo adapts its product offerings to local climates and implements localized supply chain strategies to enhance brand image and reduce costs [2]. - The company focuses on opening large flagship stores in key urban areas and enhancing e-commerce marketing to expand its customer base [2]. Haizhu's Growth Potential - Haizhu's overseas business has shown high growth post-pandemic, with performance exceeding domestic operations [2]. - The report suggests that Haizhu has significant growth potential in Southeast Asia, drawing parallels with Uniqlo's successful strategies [2][3]. - Haizhu's expansion strategy considers factors such as population size, income levels, and market environment in target countries [2]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on Haizhu, as it is expected to achieve rapid growth in online and overseas businesses, which can mitigate fluctuations in its domestic operations [3]. - The report draws on Japanese market experiences, indicating that leading apparel brands can perform well even in low-growth economic periods [3].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 9.28 CNY per share based on a 1x PB valuation for 2024 [1][3] Core Views - The company is a pioneer in the "Belt and Road" initiative, primarily engaged in international engineering contracting, with international engineering contributing 53.7% of gross profit in 24H1 [1] - The company has a diversified business layout, including engineering contracting, design consulting, and equipment manufacturing, with significant advantages in medical, logistics, and industrial engineering sectors [1][5] - The company is expanding its investment in environmental protection, energy, and cableway projects, leveraging its integrated capabilities in investment, construction, and operation [1][5] Business Performance and Financials - In 24H1, the company's revenue increased by 6.4% YoY to 5.5 billion CNY, with international engineering contracting revenue growing by 28.8% YoY to 3.61 billion CNY [1][13] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders in 24H1 was 272 million CNY, a slight increase of 0.1% YoY [1][15] - The company's international engineering contracting business signed new contracts worth 1.29 billion USD in 24H1, a 22.3% YoY increase, with a backlog of 9.03 billion USD [1][13] Business Segments International Engineering Contracting - The company's international engineering business covers Asia, Africa, the Americas, and Eastern Europe, focusing on industrial and livelihood projects [1][13] - In 24H1, the international engineering segment contributed 65.71% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 13.9% [1][13] Design Consulting - The company's design consulting business, led by its subsidiary China Zhongyuan, has significant advantages in healthcare, logistics, and scientific facilities [1][13] - In 24H1, the design consulting segment contributed 10.64% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 38.9% [1][13] Equipment Manufacturing - The company's equipment manufacturing business, led by its subsidiary Beijing Crane Research Institute, is a leader in cableway systems, with a domestic market share ranking first and global ranking in the top three [1][13] - In 24H1, the equipment manufacturing segment contributed 12.01% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 22.73% [1][13] Growth Catalysts - The company is deepening its overseas layout, particularly in the "Belt and Road" regions, with a focus on energy and livelihood projects [1][5] - The company is expanding its investment in environmental protection, cableway systems, and clean energy, with a focus on integrated investment, construction, and operation models [1][5] - The company's parent group, Sinomach, is actively promoting state-owned enterprise reforms, which is expected to further enhance the company's competitiveness [1][5] Financial Projections - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders to be 388 million CNY, 432 million CNY, and 477 million CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1][2] - The company's revenue is expected to grow to 13.1 billion CNY, 14.7 billion CNY, and 16.2 billion CNY in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2]

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|传媒 影业、光线传媒、柠萌影视等。 [Table_Contacts] 伦理、内容质量的风险。 证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

业估值修复 [Table_Contacts] [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|证券Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 证券Ⅱ行业 风控指标优化落地，打开高质量发展空间 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 2024 年 9 月 20 日，证监会修订发布《证券公司风险控制指标计算标 准规定》，于 2025 年 1 月 1 日起正式施行。较 2023 年 11 月征求意见 稿进一步优化，对大部分反馈建议充分吸收，未完全吸收的意见主要涉 及放松场外衍生品等创新业务的计算标准。 ⚫ 监管对证券公司所有业务活动纳入风险控制指标约束范围，放松多数 项目的折算比例，同时强化分类监管，拓展优质证券公司资本空间。 （1）强化对证券公司资源配置的"指挥棒"作用。证券公司投资股票、 做市、资管等业务的风险控制指标计算标准予以进一步优化，引导证 券公司充分发挥长期价值投资、服务实体经济融资、服务居民财富管 理等功能。2024 年 9 月的正式稿中，风险资本准备中的指数、股票折 算率下调、流动性覆盖率中优质流动性资产的股票指数转换系数提升， 进一步支持证券公司长期投资与入市、开展做市业务。（2）根据证券公 司风 ...

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