光威复材、航天电器、紫光国微（电子联合覆盖）、菲利华、国睿科 技、中国海防、鸿远电子、铂力特（机械联合覆盖）、东华测试（机械 联合覆盖）、七一二、国博电子（电子联合覆盖）、北方导航、钢研高 纳、海格通信、臻镭科技、湘电股份。 Xml [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|国防军工 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

[Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2024-09-22 [Table_Title] 煤炭行业月报（2024 年 8 月） 煤价预期稳中向好，板块估值和股息优势显著 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 煤炭板块回顾：8 月市场下行煤炭板块跌幅较小，年初以来跑赢大盘 4.1pct。根据 Wind 数据，8 月上证综指下跌 3.3%，沪深 300 下跌 3.5%，煤炭（中信）板块下跌 0.4%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 3.1pct。截至 目前，年初以来煤炭板块累计下跌 2.1%，但仍跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.6 个百分点，排名中信各行业指数 6/30。目前煤炭板块市盈率、市净率 处于历史中等位置，其中市盈率仅高于银行、建筑和石油石化板块。 ⚫ 煤炭市场回顾：8 月用电量延续高增长，火电同比增速转正，供给增量 不大，煤价整体企稳回升。（1）国内煤价：8 月以来，动力煤市场价企 稳回升，炼焦煤价表现弱势，9 月以来有所好转；（2）国际煤价：8 月 以来，澳洲动力煤价较为平稳，峰景矿硬焦煤价跌幅明显；（3）国内需 求：8 月用电量表现超预期（同比+8.9%），火电同比增速 ...

证券研究报告 [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 持有 前次评级 持有 地产成交环比下滑，行业需求一般，等待政策发力 报告日期 2024-09-22 021-38003688 xielu@gf.com.cn [Table_Title] 建筑材料行业 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 目前建材基本面受地产景气影响仍在左侧、基建需求也一般，需等待地 产企稳，但部分优质龙头企业仍表现出较强的经营韧性，如二手房和存 量房翻新需求支撑下零售建材韧性强、周期建材龙头在底部仍有显著 的超额利润。建议积极关注水泥和玻纤龙头底部配置机会，同时继续关 注基本面韧性强的零售建材，和部分结构性景气赛道（出海、药玻等）。 ⚫ 地产仍在寻底，龙头公司经营韧性强；关注地产政策效果。消费建材长 期需求稳定性好、行业集中度持续提升、竞争格局好的优质细分龙头中 长期成长空间仍然很大。下游地产仍在寻底，新开工面积预计已回落至 中期较低水平，等待销售企稳好转；核心龙头公司经营韧性强。看好三 棵树、兔宝宝、北新建材、伟星新材、中国联塑、东鹏控股、东方雨虹， 关注坚朗五金、箭牌家居、蒙娜丽莎、科顺股份、志特新材、王力安防。 ⚫ 水泥： ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in electricity consumption, with August showing a year-on-year growth of 8.9%, driven largely by the tertiary sector and residential usage, which contributed 71% of the new electricity demand [2][14] - The report emphasizes the recovery of thermal power generation, with August thermal power output reaching 614.9 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [2][30] - The report discusses the evolving landscape of the electricity sector, indicating a systemic change influenced by electricity reform policies and a stable demand for electricity, which is expected to support market valuations [2][30] Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption Growth - In August, total electricity consumption increased by 8.9% year-on-year, with contributions from the primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors as well as urban and rural residents [14][17] - The breakdown of electricity consumption for January to August shows that the primary sector consumed 91.4 billion kWh, the secondary sector 4,200.6 billion kWh, the tertiary sector 1,230.1 billion kWh, and urban and rural residents 1,039.8 billion kWh, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 7.0%, 6.3%, 11.0%, and 10.9% [17][30] Policy Review - The report notes recent policies in the energy sector, including a plan by the Fujian Provincial Development and Reform Commission to invest over 30 billion yuan in energy facility upgrades by 2027 [39] Industry Data Tracking - The report tracks high-frequency data, indicating that the recent domestic and international coal prices have stabilized, while coastal power plant loads have shown a mixed trend [8][30] - The report also highlights the performance of various power generation sources, with thermal power generation showing signs of recovery and hydroelectric power generation experiencing a slight decline in growth rate [30][32] Company Focus - The report identifies key companies to watch in the sector, including China Resources Power, Huadian International, Zhejiang Energy, and others, emphasizing their potential for high returns on equity and dividends [2][30]

⚫ 风险提示：板块系统性风险、政策监管风险、游戏公司技术性风险。 [Table_Contacts] Xml [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|传媒 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | [Ta ...

[Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2024-09-22 环保行业深度跟踪:碳交易将扩容至 钢铁/水泥/铝，市场逐步完善 2024-09-17 环保高股息策略（二）:被低估的城 市公用事业 2024-09-11 环保行业深度跟踪:南京水价顺价， 碳市场将扩容至钢铁、水泥、铝 2024-09-08 [Table_Contacts] [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|环保 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 环保行业深度跟踪 SAF 试点启动，重申看好固废、水务 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 建议关注：（1）固废：瀚蓝环境、光大环境、海螺创业、三峰环境； （3）水务：北控水务集团、洪城环境等；（3）成长类：聚光科技、美 埃科技、朗坤环境、赛恩斯和景津装备等。 ⚫ SAF 试点启动，得"废油"者得天下。9 月 18 日，发改委、民航局举 办可持续航空燃料（以下简称"SAF"）应用试点启动仪式，9 月 19 日起，共计 12 个航班将正式加注 SAF，并且 2025 年参加单位将逐步 增加。今年生物柴油产业受欧洲"双反"政策影响，价格、需求大幅下 滑，国内 ...

[Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2024-09-22 Xm l 跟踪分析|房地产 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 房地产及物管行业 24 年第 38 周周报 成交认购回落，美国超预期降息打开政策空间 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 本周政策情况：北京表态将适时优化政策，太原取消限购。中央政策方 面住建部发布数据，2024 年全国计划新开工改造城镇老旧小区 5.4 万 个，1-8 月份，全国新开工改造城镇老旧小区 4.2 万个。地方政策方面， 北京表示将适时取消普通和非普通住宅的标准，优化宅地交易规则，改 革地产开发融资方式和预售制度；浙江推进"拿地即拿证"；太原取消 限购。 本周基本面情况：新房成交热度季节性回落，二手房成交维稳。据 Wind 及克尔瑞，本周 51 城新房成交面积 280.2 万方，环比下降 7.1%，同 比下降 34.7%，新房成交热度低于去年同期，当前新房成交热度季节 性回落。二手房方面，本周 13 城网签口径成交 107.7 万方，环比下降 25.8%，同比下降 25.7%，74 城认购口径日均成交 1669 套，环比下 降 7 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The basic chemical sector saw a slight increase of 0.21% from September 14 to September 20, underperforming the Wind All A Index by 0.27 percentage points. The worst-performing sub-industries included carbon black, compound fertilizers, food and feed additives, and potash, while titanium dioxide, oil and gas extraction, and polyurethane performed better [12][21]. - Chemical prices have generally declined, with 336 tracked products showing 54 rising, 187 stable, and 95 falling, indicating a significant drop in chemical prices overall. The top five products with price increases were liquid chlorine, isooctanol, n-butanol, Asian gasoline, and acetonitrile, while the largest declines were seen in aniline, vitamin H, PBS, CCFI index, and hexafluoropropylene [12][31][44]. - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, reducing rates by 50 basis points in September, the first cut in over four years, which is expected to enhance market liquidity and support domestic demand assets and growth asset valuations [12]. - The 2025 refrigerant quota proposal has been released, indicating a significant reduction in production and usage quotas for HCFCs and HFCs, which will continue to constrain supply in the refrigerant market [12][20]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The basic chemical sector's performance was mixed, with notable declines in several sub-industries and better performance in others. The overall market dynamics are influenced by supply constraints and policy changes [12][21]. Key Sub-Industry Tracking - The sweetener market, particularly for sucralose and aspartame, is experiencing an upward trend in prices due to industry recovery and seasonal demand. Companies are taking measures to optimize supply and pricing strategies [2]. - The report suggests focusing on resource constraints and optimization opportunities in oil and gas, mining, and manufacturing sectors, as well as new technologies and materials that are emerging [2][12]. Data Tracking - The basic chemical sector's performance from September 14 to September 20 showed a 0.21% increase, underperforming the broader market index. The report highlights the significant price fluctuations across various chemical products, with a notable number experiencing price declines [21][31].

[TAblE_G rADE] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2024-09-22 2024-09-17 [TAblE_TitlE] 农林牧渔行业 节后猪价小幅下行，特水料需求有望持续改善 [TAblE_SummAry] 核心观点： 畜禽养殖：据搜猪网，9月20日，全国瘦肉型生猪出栏均价18.60元/公 斤，周环比下跌4.32%，同比上涨19.54%。受节后需求回落、规模场加 快出栏等因素影响，本周猪价延续回落。从出栏均重上来看，据涌益咨 询数据，本周出栏均重约125.48公斤/头，较上月下降约0.5%。考虑2- 7月份新生仔猪出生量同比下滑6.8%（来自农业农村部），按生猪生长 期推算，下半年行业供给偏紧状态仍将延续。行业扩产相对谨慎，后续 产能恢复速度或较为缓慢，景气持续时间有望超出市场预期。当前板块 估值回落至历史相对低位，大型养殖企业重点推荐温氏股份、牧原股份， 关注新希望，中小养殖企业建议关注唐人神、天康生物、华统股份以及 川渝生猪龙头企业。白羽鸡方面，本周商品代毛鸡和鸡苗价格相对比较 平稳，未来行业或有望延续复苏态势，圣农发展、益生股份或将受益。 黄羽鸡方面，当前种鸡存栏持续处于相对低位 ...

[Table_Contacts] Xml [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|家用电器 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------| | | [Table_Title] 家用电器行业 | 行业评级 | 证券研究报告 \n持有 | | | | 前次评级 | 持有 | ...