Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage with a target price of 13.13 yuan [43]. Core Insights - The company focuses on the mid-to-high-end large parcel express market, with significant growth potential in the less concentrated LTL (Less Than Truckload) transportation industry. The integration of resources with JD Logistics is expected to enhance business scale and profitability [33][41]. - The company has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.1% in revenue from 2017 to 2023, with a projected revenue of 418.53 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.36% [22][31]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been a leader in the large parcel express industry for over 20 years, with a business structure driven by both express and freight services. It has seen a significant increase in revenue from express services, which grew at a CAGR of 24.6% from 2017 to 2022 [31][62]. Industry Analysis - The LTL transportation market in China is expected to grow significantly, with the overall market size reaching 1.67 trillion yuan in 2023 and projected to increase to 1.80 trillion yuan by 2027. The market is currently characterized by low concentration, providing opportunities for the company to benefit from industry consolidation [39][68]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit of 7.5 billion yuan in 2023, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.3%. The revenue for the same year was 362.8 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 15.6% [64][61]. Growth Strategy - The company is enhancing its operational efficiency through a direct management model and focusing on cost control, which has led to a reduction in management expense ratios from 8.86% in 2021 to 4.19% in early 2024 [40][41]. - The integration with JD Logistics is expected to create synergies that will boost business scale and profitability, leveraging JD's strengths in warehouse and distribution network [33][41]. Profit Forecast - The forecast for the company's revenue from 2024 to 2026 is 418.53 billion yuan, 478.95 billion yuan, and 535.35 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 10.54 billion yuan, 13.90 billion yuan, and 16.50 billion yuan, indicating strong growth potential [22][35].

公 司 报 告│ 公 司 点 评 研 究 石头科技(688169) 2024 年中报业绩预告点评: 业绩延续较快增长,税收优惠增厚利润 事件: 石头科技披露 2024 年中报业绩预告:公司 2024 年上半年预计实现归母净 利润 10.0 至 12.0 亿,同比+35.2%至+62.3%,扣非净利润 8.0 至 9.5 亿, 同比+21.2%至+43.9%;其中 2024 年二季度预计实现归母净利润 6.0 至 8.0 亿,同比+12.3%至+49.7%,扣非净利润 4.6 至 6.1 亿,同比-7.9%至+22.2%。 ➢ 第二曲线表现亮眼,全球份额持续提升 分内外销来看,内销方面,奥维数据显示 618 期间扫地机行业线上销额(含 抖音)同比+16.6%,在此基础上石头销额份额总体平稳,叠加公司洗烘一 体机表现亮眼,奥维数据显示公司当季线上洗衣机销量突破 2.5 万台,综 合看公司当季内销收入同比或达+20%;外销方面,公司属国化以及线上渠 道运营成效可观,渠道覆盖度持续提升,叠加产品价位段进一步完善,我 们认为公司正积极拓展并深入挖掘全球市场份额,境外收入增速快于境内。 ➢ 业绩延续较快增长,税收优惠增厚 ...

中际旭创(300308) 业绩保持高增长,高端产品放量与产能建设齐发力 事件: 7 月 14 日,公司发布 2024 年半年度业绩预告:报告期内预计实现归母净 利润 21.50-25.00 亿元,同比增长 250.30%-307.33%;扣非归母净利润 21.00-24.50 亿元,同比增长 260.13%-320.15%。2024Q2 预计实现归母净利 润 11.41-14.91 亿元,同比增长 213.46%-309.62%,环比增长 13.08%- 47.77%;扣非归母净利润 11.10-14.60 亿元,同比增长 216.24%-315.95%, 环比增长 12.12%-47.47%。扣除股权激励费用的影响,苏州旭创实现净利润 约 22.00-27.00 亿元,较 2023 年同口径净利润增长 190.34%-256.32%。 ➢ 高端产品出货比重增长,1.6T 光模块有望进入客户下单环节 公司业绩预告指出,报告期内得益于 800G/400G 等高端产品出货比重的快 速增长,产品结构持续优化,公司营业收入和净利润同比大幅提升。根据 公司 2024 年 4 月 22 日发布的《中际旭创投资者关系记录表 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Weichai Power Co., Ltd. (000338) [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.46 to 6.24 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 40% to 60% [2] - The sales of natural gas heavy-duty trucks have significantly increased, with a year-on-year growth of 105% in Q2 2024, accounting for 37% of total sales [3] - The company's heavy-duty engine sales reached 53,000 units in Q2 2024, a 10% increase year-on-year, with natural gas engines making up 68.9% of total sales, reflecting a substantial improvement in profit structure [4] - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is projected to be 216.51 billion, 242.76 billion, and 258.50 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 11.54 billion, 13.92 billion, and 15.62 billion yuan, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5] Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of 175.16 billion yuan in 2022, which increased to 213.96 billion yuan in 2023, with a slight expected growth to 216.51 billion yuan in 2024 [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.91 billion yuan in 2022, rising to 9.01 billion yuan in 2023, and is expected to reach 11.54 billion yuan in 2024 [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from 0.56 yuan in 2022 to 1.32 yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.1% over three years [5][6] Market Position - Weichai Power holds a market share of 32.3% in the overall engine market, with a slight year-on-year increase of 1.0 percentage points [4] - The company is positioned as an industry leader with strong product competitiveness, which supports the positive outlook for its stock [5]

Economic Policy Meetings - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China holds regular meetings with non-party members to discuss economic situations and work plans, with a focus on economic policies and suggestions[1] - The State Council holds frequent meetings to address specific economic issues, such as logistics cost reduction, rural revitalization, and market reforms[4][6] Key Economic Reforms - The Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission focuses on major economic reforms, including infrastructure development, regional economic layouts, and technological innovation[31] - The State Council emphasizes the importance of optimizing the business environment and promoting high-quality development in various sectors, including manufacturing and digital economy[6][11] Financial and Market Stability - The State Council Financial Stability and Development Committee holds monthly meetings to analyze economic and financial situations, with a focus on monetary and fiscal policies[26] - The Central Financial Commission, established in 2023, oversees financial stability and reform, integrating responsibilities previously held by the State Council Financial Committee[28] Long-term Economic Goals - The Communist Party of China sets long-term economic goals through its National Congress, with a focus on achieving modernization and high-quality development by 2035[36][58] - The Central Committee's plenary sessions, particularly the Third Plenum, often address comprehensive economic reforms and strategic planning[60][63]

2024 年 07 月 13 日 ——美国经济再观察（二） 财政支出仍是较为确定的经济支持项。由于强制性支出向下调整困难以及 恰逢美国大选年，今年财政仍然会持续高支出。美国国会预算办公室 2024 年 6 月将 2024 年的赤字预测上调到 1.9 万亿美元，赤字率为 7%。惠誉预 测，2024 年一般政府赤字将占 GDP 的 6.6%，2025 年将进一步扩大至 GDP 的 6.9%。 ➢ 超额储蓄持续消耗 美联储这轮周期利率在 2023 年 7 月达到顶点，目前已经持续了 12 个月， 目前已经位于利率平台期的后半段。股市和楼市的增速或下降，并且有回 调的风险。Horstmeyer 等(2023)研究了过去 50 年不同资产类别在美联储 停止加息并维持利率稳定三个月或更长时间的高峰与平台时期的回报，他 们发现在这 50 年期间大部分资产收益实现在利率平台期的前半段。 分析师：樊磊 执业证书编号：S0590521120002 邮箱：fanl@glsc.com.cn 分析师：王博群 执业证书编号：S0590524010002 邮箱：wangboq@glsc.com.cn 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 正文目录 ...

证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 12 日 投资建议: 强于大市(维持) 上次建议: 强于大市 风电深度系列(二) 行 业 报 告│ 行 业 深 度 研 究 海内外需求共振,龙头核心受益 需求持续改善,迎接周期新阶段 风电行业需求侧受政策规划影响较强,供给侧过去几年投资热度相对较低, 风电的核心问题是在需求侧,今年海风投资分为三个阶段,1)国内省管海 风需求兑现;2)国内企业出海进程加速;3)深远海规划落地,核心解决风 电需求的阶段性和中长期问题。本篇报告重点分析近期国内海风需求边际 变化,欧洲海风需求/供给变化及国内企业出海机会。 国内海风催化积蓄,景气度有望持续提升 近期江苏、广东重点海上风电项目审批进度稳步推进,存量项目有望于 2024 年下半年开工;且国内海风招标持续回暖,2024Q2 招标规模达 4.5GW,环 比改善明显。在存量项目开工重启、招标持续回暖的背景下,2024-2025 年 国内海风装机需求确定性增强,我们预计今明两年国内新增海风装机有望 达 10/15GW,对应 2023-2025 年 CAGR 达 50%。 海外海风建设有望加速 根据 GWEC 测算,2023-2028 年海外 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported Q2 earnings that exceeded expectations, with projected revenue for H1 2024 between 78.60 billion to 80.80 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.95% to 47.98%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 16.00 billion to 17.30 billion yuan, a growth of 44.39% to 56.12% [2][3]. - The company is focusing on refined channel operations and a diversified product matrix to drive growth, with nearly 4 million active terminal points currently [4]. - A new production base is planned in Yunnan with an investment of 1 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing the company's strategic layout and meeting future sales growth [5]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company expects revenues of 157.79 billion, 201.94 billion, and 245.17 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 40.10%, 27.98%, and 21.40% [6][7]. - The projected net profits for the same years are 28.97 billion, 37.65 billion, and 46.98 billion yuan, with growth rates of 42.02%, 29.97%, and 24.78% respectively [6][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 7.24 yuan, 9.41 yuan, and 11.74 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.06% [6][7].

燕京啤酒(000729) Q2 业绩超预期,改革红利持续释放 事件: 公司发布 2024 年半年度业绩预告,2024H1 预计实现归母净利润 7.19-7.97 亿元,同比增长 40%-55%;扣非净利润 7.00-7.75 亿元,同比增长 60%-77%。 ➢ 业绩超预期,我们预计单 Q2 中枢净利率提升至 15-16% 公司预计 2024H1 归母净利润 7.19-7.97 亿元,同比增长 40%-55%;扣非净 利润 7.00-7.75 亿元,同比增长 60%-77%。我们由此测算单 Q2 归母净利润 6.17-6.94 亿元,同比增长 37.28%-54.44%;扣非净利润 5.97-6.72 亿元, 同比增长 56.56%-76.21%,归母净利润超预期。我们预计公司二季度收入中 个位数增长,对应 2024H1 中枢归母净利率与扣非净利率约在 9%-10%区间, 单 Q2 归母净利率与扣非净利率约在 15%-16%区间。 ➢ 大单品增长带动空白市场与新品实现新突破 我们预计二季度公司有望实现量价齐升。产品端,U8 500ml 产品势能延续, 带动 U8 系列小只、听装等产品增长,公司有望通过不断迭代 ...

证券研究报告 国防军工 2024 年 07 月 14 日 投资建议: 强于大市(维持) 上次建议: 强于大市 产能增加或为中国头部船厂打开利润空间上限 ➢ 24H1 造船数据稳健提升,产能或为本轮周期核心要素 2024 上半年受全球贸易重构导致的运距拉长、地缘政治冲突加剧以及海外 制造业复苏导致的供需失衡使得三大航运指数有涨有跌,三大航运指标 BDI、BDTI、CCFI 分别上涨-6.98%/-15.58%/122.56%。新船市场景气持续, 上半年中国新船造价指数(CNPI)涨幅为 3.9%,同比增加 6.1%;造船市场 景气上行但尾部船厂仍在出清,BRS 数据显示 2023 年全球活跃船厂数量为 307 个,较 2022 年减少 25 个。新签及交付方面,全球船舶新签/交付订单 分别同比 -2.83% 、 +0.13% ;中国船厂新签 / 交付订单分别同比 +11.72%/+22.66%,好于全球平均水平,产能优势已在新签和交付订单数据 上有所展现。 ➢ 2030 年前全球产能扩张有限,中国产能优势明显且持续扩大 2023 年,中国造船完工量、新接订单量、手持订单量以载重吨计分别占世 界总量的 50.2% ...