国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.10.28 [table_Authors]徐强(分析师) 010-83939805 xuqiang@gtjas.com 登记编号S0880517040002 本报告导读： ——中熔电气 2024 年三季报点评 24Q3 业绩高增长，归母净利提升显著 中熔电气(301031) [Table_Industry] 资本货物/工业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 128.49 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|----------------------------|-------|---------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | ) ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a target price of 43.96 CNY, unchanged from the previous forecast [3][4]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing short-term pressure in the digestive field, but innovative products are expected to offset the impact of centralized procurement. The annual profit is adjusted to a single-digit growth due to declines in key products like Esomeprazole and interest income [4][6]. - The company has actively pursued stock buybacks to enhance investor confidence [4][6]. - Revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 9.082 billion CNY, down 5.9%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.673 billion CNY, up 4.4% [6]. Financial Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.799 billion CNY, a decrease of 5.6%, and a net profit of 502 million CNY, an increase of 7.5% [6]. - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 2.24, 2.45, and 2.78 CNY respectively, down from previous estimates [6]. - The total market capitalization is approximately 34.768 billion CNY, with a total share capital of 927 million shares [6]. Business Segment Performance - The chemical preparation business generated 1.49 billion CNY in revenue for Q3, down 10.9%, with the digestive field contributing 553 million CNY, a decline of 15.4% [6]. - The traditional Chinese medicine segment achieved 296 million CNY in revenue, a slight increase of 1.1% [6]. - The raw materials and intermediates segment reported 760 million CNY in revenue, down 5.6%, while diagnostic reagents and equipment generated 172 million CNY, up 1.2% [6]. Innovation and Development - The company is advancing its innovative drug pipeline, with several products expected to contribute to revenue growth in the near future [4][6]. - The approval of new indications for existing drugs is anticipated to drive future sales, particularly in the hormone therapy and psychiatric medication sectors [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][10]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance shows strong recovery, with revenue nearing the levels seen in Q3 2022, indicating robust growth potential [2][3]. - The company is expected to enter a new development phase in 2025, driven by increased business in Europe and the US, which will provide greater revenue elasticity [3]. - The report forecasts EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 2.17, 3.41, and 4.63 CNY respectively, with a target price set at 58.23 CNY [3][5]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 14,460 million CNY, with a projected decline to 11,485 million CNY in 2023, followed by a slight increase to 11,733 million CNY in 2024 [1]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 1,413 million CNY in 2022, expected to drop to 771 million CNY in 2023, and further decline to 605 million CNY in 2024, before recovering to 950 million CNY in 2025 and 1,290 million CNY in 2026 [1]. - The company’s net profit margin is projected to improve from 4.47% in Q3 2023 to 9.0% in 2026 [3][9]. - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 14,898 million CNY in 2023 to 20,596 million CNY by 2026 [9]. Performance Metrics - The company reported a Q3 revenue of 4,103 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 18.07% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 37.30% [3]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 20.56%, showing a slight increase from previous quarters [3]. - The company’s market capitalization is currently 13,228 million CNY, with a current share price of 47.47 CNY [6][10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched a new equity incentive plan with net profit as the performance target for the years 2025-2027, reflecting a strategic focus on improving profitability [3]. - The agricultural chemical prices are showing signs of bottoming out, with expectations of price recovery in 2024 due to improved supply-demand dynamics [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is experiencing steady revenue growth, with the anesthetics business expected to maintain a high growth trend. Profit margins are improving, and operating cash flow is in good condition. Increased R&D investment is leading to a new product launch cycle [3][4]. - The company achieved revenue of 4.145 billion and net profit of 1.020 billion in Q1-Q3 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 13.39% and 15.18%, respectively [3]. - The anesthetics business is projected to continue its rapid growth, with key products like Remifentanil and Sufentanil entering the market [3]. - The company has increased its R&D expenditure to 436 million in Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.25%, with significant new products expected to contribute to revenue growth [3]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2022A: 4,299 million - 2023A: 5,042 million - 2024E: 6,004 million - 2025E: 7,150 million - 2026E: 8,530 million - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 9.2%, 17.3%, 19.1%, 19.1%, and 19.3% respectively [2]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2022A: 901 million - 2023A: 1,037 million - 2024E: 1,221 million - 2025E: 1,469 million - 2026E: 1,795 million - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 12.9%, 15.1%, 17.7%, 20.3%, and 22.2% respectively [2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 0.89 - 2023A: 1.02 - 2024E: 1.20 - 2025E: 1.45 - 2026E: 1.77 [2]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2022A: 16.0% - 2023A: 16.1% - 2024E: 16.9% - 2025E: 17.9% - 2026E: 19.2% [2]. - **Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)**: - Current: 29.84 - 2024E: 22.02 - 2025E: 18.30 - 2026E: 14.98 [2]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic market for anesthetics, with a stable market structure expected following regulatory changes [3].

Investment Rating - The report rates the robotics industry as "Overweight" [3] Core Insights - Tesla's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of $25.2 billion, an 8% year-on-year increase, and a gross margin of 19.8% [5][6] - The energy segment showed strong performance with a 77% year-on-year increase in energy storage installations and a gross margin of 30.5% [5][6] - Tesla plans to launch a more affordable vehicle model in mid-2025 and expects a 20% to 30% increase in vehicle sales next year [5] - The Cybercab is expected to enter mass production in 2026, with a target of producing at least 2 million units annually, potentially reaching 4 million units in the future [5][6] - Domestic company Zhongqing launched the SE01 humanoid robot, featuring advanced capabilities and a target of over 1,000 units sold by 2025 [5][9][10] - Horizon Robotics successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising over HKD 5.4 billion, becoming the fourth largest provider of advanced driver assistance and autonomous driving solutions in China [5][12] Industry News and Company Dynamics - Tesla's Q3 2024 report highlighted a strong performance, with revenue of $25.2 billion and a gross margin of 19.8%, up from 18.0% in the previous quarter [5][6] - Zhongqing's SE01 humanoid robot features 32 degrees of freedom and can perform complex movements, with plans for commercialization by 2025 [5][9][10] - Horizon Robotics raised over HKD 5.4 billion in its IPO, solidifying its position in the autonomous driving market [5][12] - A&K Robotics plans to introduce autonomous robots at airports to enhance operational efficiency [8] - Verdant Robotics launched the Sharpshooter robot, which significantly reduces chemical usage in agriculture [8] Financing Dynamics - Weir Technology completed a multi-million A round financing to expand its agricultural AI robotics [13] - Qianjue Robotics secured several million in angel round financing to develop tactile sensing technology for robots [13] Investment Recommendations - Key components in robotics such as motors, reducers, sensors, and lead screws are recommended for investment focus, with specific companies highlighted for each category [14][15] - Notable companies include: - Motors: Sanhua Intelligent Controls, Top Group, Mingzhi Electric [14] - Reducers: Zhongdali De, Shuanghuan Transmission [14] - Sensors: Donghua Testing, Keli Sensor, and Aobo Zhongguang [14] - Lead Screws: Best, Wuzhou Xinchun, Hengli Hydraulic [14]

股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——九洲药业 2024 年三季报点评 原料药承压，新业务加码推进 九洲药业(603456) [Table_Industry] 医药/必需消费 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|-----------------------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 丁丹 ( 分析师 ) | 吴晗 ( 分析师 ) | | | | | | 0755-23976735 | 010-83939773 | | | | | | dingdan@gtjas.com | wuhan024878@gtjas.com | | | | | 登记编号 | S0880514030001 | S0880523080005 | | | | 本报告导读： 原料药短期承压，制剂布局加快，多肽等新兴业务加码布局，业绩增长可期。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 维持"增持"评级。202 ...

股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 新集能源 2024 年三季报点评 | --- | |---------------------------------| | | | [table_Authors] 黄涛 ( 分析师 ) | | 021-38674879 | | huangtao@gtjas.com | | S0880515090001 | | --- | |-----------------------------| | | | 邓铖琦 ( 分析师 ) | | 010-83939825 | | dengchengqi024452@gtjas.com | | S0880523050003 | 本报告导读： Q3 煤炭成本提升，毛利微降；发电量大增拉动业绩环比提高，煤电一体化持续推进； 发布《"十四五"发展规划(中期调整)纲要》，提质增效可期。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 下调盈利预测，维持目标价和增持评级。2024 前三季度实现营收 91.89 亿元，同比-5.19%；归母净利润 18.24 亿元，同比-5.01%。其 中 Q3 实现收入 32.04 亿元，同比- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, recommending downstream leading companies that benefit from improved domestic demand expectations [4][5]. Core Insights - Recent fiscal policies have led to strong expectations for recovery in chemical products, with signs of improvement in price differentials in certain segments of the olefin and polyester industrial chains, highlighting opportunities in leading downstream enterprises benefiting from domestic demand recovery [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Oil and Gas Price Fluctuations - Oil prices have been volatile due to geopolitical and macroeconomic factors, with Brent crude averaging $83.39, $85.15, and $80.50 per barrel in the first three quarters of 2024 [9]. - As of October 16, Brent crude prices fell from $81.33 to $73.95 per barrel [9]. 2. Refining Price Differentials - Global refined oil crack spreads weakened in August and September 2024, with the U.S. Gulf Coast WTI 3:2:1 crack spread averaging $23.79, $22.15, and $17.28 per barrel in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 24%, 14%, and 49% respectively [12]. - Domestic main refineries maintain a gross profit of 300-500 RMB/ton, slightly strengthening since October, while Shandong independent refineries' profits have dropped to a five-year low of 103 RMB/ton [19]. 3. Olefin Industry Chain Trends - The olefin industry chain shows a positive trend, with ethylene and propylene production rates increasing. As of October 17, 2024, the ethylene operating rate was approximately 84.59% [24][28]. - Propylene production has also been on the rise, with a total output of 69.22 million tons as of October 18, 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.48% [32]. 4. Polyester Industry Chain Recovery - The polyester industry chain is experiencing a recovery, with high operating rates in downstream sectors. As of October 2024, the operating rates for weaving and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were 93% and 86% respectively, higher than previous years [4][39]. - The PX and PTA processing margins have compressed, with the PX to naphtha spread narrowing to 1350 RMB/ton [39]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies, including Satellite Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and Hengli Petrochemical, as key beneficiaries of the expected recovery in domestic demand [4].

股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 —永艺股份 2024 年三季报点评 | --- | |-----------------------------------| | | | [table_Authors] 刘佳昆 ( 分析师 ) | | 021-38038184 | | liujiakun029641@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 S0880524040004 | | --- | --- | |----------------------------|-------| | | | | 毛宇翔 ( 分析师 ) | | | 021-38038672 | | | maoyuxiang029547@gtjas.com | | | S0880524080013 | | 本报告导读： 公司业绩在内外销双端发力下继续取得亮眼业绩，自身优异的战略落地及执行能力 进一步得到确认。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 维持盈利预期及"增持"评级。公司业绩符合预期，因而我们维持 盈利预期，预计公司 2024-2026 年 EPS 为 1.02/1.26/1.54 元，参考行 业估值水平，给予公司 2024 年 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an **Overweight** rating on the 3C equipment industry, driven by the global expansion of Apple's supply chain and the potential for increased equipment investment [2][3] Core Viewpoints - Apple's supply chain is shifting towards India and Southeast Asia, with plans to increase India's share of production to 25% by 2025, up from 13% in 2024 [3][6] - The shift in production capacity will drive demand for 3C equipment, particularly in SMT (solder paste printing, dispensing, welding), assembly testing, and inspection equipment [3][6] - The automation rate in Apple's production lines, especially in backend assembly and appearance defect detection, is expected to increase, leading to additional equipment purchases [3][6] - If Apple increases India's production share to 38%, it could drive equipment investment of 9.85 billion yuan, representing a 75% elasticity relative to annual equipment renewal demand [3][6] Investment Recommendations and Target Companies - **Backend Assembly**: Recommended companies include **Bozhon Precision Industry Technology**, with **Saiteng Co** as a beneficiary [8] - **Appearance Defect Detection**: Recommended companies include **Opt Machine Vision Tech** and **Quick Intelligent Equipment**, with **Saiteng Co**, **Lingyun Guang**, **Tianzhun Technology**, and **Rongqi Technology** as beneficiaries [8] - **SMT Segment**: Recommended companies include **Quick Intelligent Equipment**, with **Kegong Precision Machinery**, **Anda Intelligent**, and **Zhuozhao Dispensing** as beneficiaries [8] - **Testing Segment**: Beneficiary companies include **Yanmai Technology**, **Zhilifang**, **Bojie Co**, **Juzi Technology**, and **Core Technology** [8] - **CNC Segment**: Recommended companies include **Chuangshi Technology**, with **Yuhuan CNC** as a beneficiary [8] 3C Assembly Capacity: Mainland Dominance with Global Expansion Trends - Mainland China dominates 3C assembly, accounting for 90% of Apple's production capacity in 2023 [6][10] - Apple plans to increase India's production share to 25% by 2025, with major suppliers like **Luxshare Precision** and **Foxconn** actively expanding in India and Southeast Asia [6][10] - **Luxshare Precision** and **Foxconn** are expected to increase their market share in this global expansion, further driving demand for domestic 3C equipment [6][10] 3C Equipment: Domestic Manufacturers Lead, India Relies on Imports from China - Domestic 3C equipment manufacturers have grown rapidly, with companies like **Bozhon Precision Industry Technology** and **Saiteng Co** becoming core suppliers to Apple [10][25] - India's manufacturing sector is relatively underdeveloped, relying heavily on imports of electronic manufacturing equipment from China, which accounts for 40.81% of India's imports in this category [40][43] Apple's Global Production Layout: Reasons and Impact on Equipment Suppliers - **Supply Chain Security**: Apple is reducing reliance on a single country by diversifying production to India, Vietnam, and other regions [41][43] - **Market Potential**: India's growing middle class and high-end smartphone market present significant opportunities for Apple [45][46] - **Cost Considerations**: India offers lower labor and land costs, but challenges remain in infrastructure and power supply [49][50] - **Impact on Equipment Suppliers**: Apple's production shift to India will drive demand for 3C equipment, with domestic suppliers expected to benefit significantly [51][52]