国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 证 券 研 究 报 告 电力行业 2024 年三季报总结 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|----------------------------|-------------------------| | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 于鸿光 ( 分析师 ) | 孙辉贤 ( 分析师 ) | 汪玥 ( 研究助理 ) | | | 021-38031730 | 021-38038670 | 021-38031030 | | | yuhongguang025906@gtjas.co m | sunhuixian026739@gtjas.com | wangyue028681@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522020001 | S0880524080012 | S0880123070143 | 本报告导读： 3Q24 火电盈利 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the lithium and cobalt industry [4]. Core Insights - The lithium market is experiencing a stable price environment with slight increases in futures prices, while the demand from downstream sectors remains cautious and focused on essential purchases [10]. - Cobalt prices are under pressure due to weak downstream demand, with companies in the cobalt sector extending their operations into the electric new energy manufacturing sector to enhance competitive advantages [10]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Analysis - The report indicates that the lithium carbonate price has stabilized with a slight weekly increase, while the lithium concentrate price is reported at 747 USD/ton, down 4 USD/ton from the previous week [10]. - The report highlights that the overall inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased by 2.12% week-on-week, continuing the trend of inventory reduction [10]. 2. Key Data - The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported to be between 72,300 and 75,400 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.75% increase from the previous week [10]. - The average price for battery-grade lithium hydroxide is between 64,500 and 69,300 CNY/ton, showing a 0.37% decrease from the previous week [10]. 3. Company Performance - Recommended stocks for investment include Yongxing Materials, Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and others, while companies benefiting from the sector include Zhongmin Resources and Tibet Mining [10]. - The report notes that companies in the cobalt sector, such as Huayou Cobalt and Luyuan Cobalt, are extending their operations to create a cost advantage through integrated production [10]. 4. Production and Inventory Trends - The report states that the weekly production of lithium carbonate has decreased by 0.44%, while the inventory has also seen a decline [10][56]. - The report provides insights into the production trends of various lithium and cobalt products, indicating fluctuations in production levels and prices across different materials [11][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 37.40 CNY [3][5]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2024 performance shows steady growth, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 47% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17%, reaching 507 million CNY. The net profit attributable to shareholders is 67 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 8% [3]. - The company has successfully reduced its expense ratios across various categories, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios decreasing by 0.3, 1.0, and 1.1 percentage points respectively [3]. - New production capacities are being gradually implemented, with the first phase of the Chao Lake factory expected to achieve significant output in the near future, enhancing profitability through increased self-manufacturing rates of core materials [3]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.31 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 61%, and a net profit of 191 million CNY, up 63% year-on-year. The gross margin stands at 29.8%, with a net profit margin of 14.6% [4][11]. - The projected financials for 2024 to 2026 indicate a revenue growth trajectory from 1.846 billion CNY in 2024 to 3.030 billion CNY in 2026, with net profits increasing from 301 million CNY to 510 million CNY over the same period [4][11]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from 1.33 CNY in 2024 to 2.25 CNY in 2026, reflecting a strong upward trend in profitability [4][11]. Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of 7.044 billion CNY, with a current share price of 31.14 CNY, indicating potential upside to the target price [6][5]. - The stock has traded within a 52-week range of 22.70 CNY to 35.60 CNY, suggesting volatility but also opportunities for investment [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) [2][11]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 revenue and profit met expectations, with an upward revision of the 2024 data center GPU revenue guidance, driven by strong AI demand [2][11]. - The report highlights the ongoing product iterations in GPU and CPU, enhancing competitiveness, while gaming and embedded segments are expected to gradually recover [2][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview - Q3 FY24 revenue reached $6.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18%, primarily due to sales growth in EPYC and Instinct GPU products [2][11]. - Non-GAAP net profit was approximately $1.5 billion, aligning with expectations [2][11]. 2. Segment Analysis - Data center revenue was $3.5 billion, up 122% year-on-year and 22% quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong growth in Instinct GPU and EPYC CPU [2][11]. - Client segment revenue was $1.9 billion, a 29% increase year-on-year, attributed to robust demand for AMD Ryzen processors [2][11]. - Gaming segment revenue was $462 million, down 69% year-on-year, mainly due to inventory reductions by Microsoft and Sony [2][11]. - Embedded segment revenue was $927 million, down 25% year-on-year, impacted by customer inventory reductions, with expectations for gradual recovery [2][11]. 3. Expenses and Spending - R&D spending growth slowed year-on-year, with a stable GPU chip iteration cycle [10][11]. - R&D expenses increased by 25% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing investment in product development [10][11]. 4. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report slightly adjusts the revenue forecast for FY2024E-FY2026E to $25.7 billion, $32.5 billion, and $38.9 billion respectively, with corresponding adjustments to NON-GAAP net profit [2][11]. - The target price for FY2025 is set at $162, based on a P/E ratio of 30x [2][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [3][19]. Core Views - The airline industry is experiencing a recovery in supply and demand, with changes in revenue strategies impacting the company's Q3 performance, which was slightly below expectations. The company is expected to show significant profit elasticity due to its high-quality route network [2][3]. - The company reported a net profit of 1.27 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12%. However, Q3 profit was 780 million yuan, a decrease of 27% compared to Q3 2023, but a 19% increase compared to Q3 2019 [2]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its domestic high-quality route network and is optimistic about its international strategy, with plans to expand its fleet of wide-body aircraft [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s Q3 performance was affected by a decline in ticket prices and a slight decrease in passenger load factor, with unit RPK revenue dropping over 10% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s fleet turnover is recovering, with ASK increasing by 13% year-on-year in Q3 2024, and a 40% increase compared to Q3 2019 [2]. - The net profit forecast for 2024-2026 is maintained at 1.4 billion, 2.2 billion, and 2.9 billion yuan respectively [2]. Market Position - The company is actively optimizing its route network, focusing on high-value slots and enhancing its operational efficiency [2]. - The international strategy is seen as optimistic, with plans to operate 10 B787 aircraft by 2025 and expand routes to cities like Melbourne and Sydney [2]. Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 21.81 yuan, with the current price at 12.72 yuan [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 16.42 CNY, reflecting a strong outlook for growth and profitability [5][6][23]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the coal industry, benefiting from both growth in its core coal business and optimization of its product structure. The new coal mines coming online are expected to enhance growth, while a high proportion of long-term contracts provides revenue stability. Additionally, cost control measures have led to a significant reduction in coal production costs [3][5][14]. - The development of new coal chemical businesses is seen as a strategic move to mitigate cyclical risks, with a focus on clean energy products that align with national industrial transformation goals. This integrated approach is expected to provide cost advantages and stabilize earnings [5][15]. - The company is recognized as a pioneer in state-owned enterprise reform within the coal sector, with expectations for increased efficiency and dividend payouts. The 2024 mid-term dividend and special dividend announcements mark a significant shift in the company's dividend policy, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [5][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the company's strong market position and growth potential, maintaining a "Buy" rating and a target price of 16.42 CNY [5][6][23]. 2. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 187 billion CNY, 189 billion CNY, and 192 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. EPS is expected to be 1.51 CNY, 1.59 CNY, and 1.70 CNY for the same years [18][19]. 3. Coal Business Growth and Product Structure Optimization - The coal business is expected to benefit from new mine production and an optimized product mix, leading to improved profitability and reduced costs. The average coal production cost is projected to decrease to 287 CNY per ton in the first three quarters of 2024, down 2.8% year-on-year [5][14][18]. 4. New Coal Chemical Business Development - The new coal chemical business is positioned to provide stronger resistance to cyclical fluctuations, with a focus on clean energy products that support industrial transformation [15][16]. 5. Group Power Business Expansion - The company is advancing its power business, which has become the sixth-largest state-owned power enterprise, indicating potential for further growth in this sector [5][15]. 6. State-Owned Enterprise Reform Leadership - The company is leading in state-owned enterprise reform within the coal sector, with expectations for enhanced efficiency and increased dividends, marking a significant milestone in its corporate governance [5][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][9]. Core Views - The company achieved a significant year-on-year increase in net profit of 152.63% in Q3 2024, reaching 396 million yuan, driven by a robust order intake and the ramp-up of new products [2][9]. - The company is positioned as a leader in semiconductor etching equipment, with a strong growth outlook supported by new product launches and a saturated order book [9]. Financial Summary - Q3 2024 revenue reached 2.059 billion yuan, up 35.96% year-on-year and 11.77% quarter-on-quarter, with etching equipment revenue contributing 1.715 billion yuan, a 49.41% increase year-on-year [9]. - The gross margin improved to 43.7%, reflecting a 5.5% increase from the previous quarter [9]. - New orders for the first three quarters of 2024 totaled 7.64 billion yuan, a 52.0% increase year-on-year, with etching equipment orders at 6.25 billion yuan, up 54.7% [9]. Product Development - The company is increasing its R&D investment, with expenditures of 914 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, an 81.92% increase year-on-year [9]. - New product developments include MOCVD for silicon carbide and gallium nitride applications, LPCVD equipment with initial sales of 28 million yuan, and EPI equipment entering mass production verification [9]. Valuation - The target price is set at 194.30 yuan, based on a 61.7x PE ratio for 2024, reflecting the company's leadership in the semiconductor etching equipment market and its potential to expand its market coverage [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 11.95 yuan, representing a 9% increase from the previous target of 10.88 yuan [2][3] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024Q3 was slightly below expectations, primarily due to pressure on leisure tourism under the trend of budget travel [2] - The two key tourism towns (Wuzhen and Gubei Water Town) are still in the process of recovery, with both revenue and profitability yet to fully rebound [2] - The hotel business is expected to accelerate its recovery, contributing to the positive outlook [2] Financial Performance - For 2024Q1-3, the company achieved revenue of 7.048 billion yuan, a 4.65% YoY increase, but gross profit declined by 3.66% to 1.683 billion yuan [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company dropped by 25.77% to 153 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 2.98%, down 0.92 percentage points [2] - In Q3 alone, revenue grew by 5.51% to 2.697 billion yuan, but gross profit fell by 9.18% to 634 million yuan [2] Operational Highlights - Wuzhen received 5.99 million visitors in 2024Q1-3, a 2.7% YoY decrease, with revenue declining by 4.36% to 1.325 billion yuan [2] - Gubei Water Town saw a 10.55% drop in visitors to 1.0025 million, with revenue falling by 21.38% to 429 million yuan [2] - The company's other businesses, including Zhongqing Bolian and Shanshui Hotel, also experienced revenue declines [2] Industry Context - The social services industry, particularly the leisure tourism sector, is facing challenges due to the trend of budget travel [3] - The company's performance is closely tied to the recovery of its key tourism assets, which are still under pressure [2] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 at 0.27 yuan (-29%), 0.33 yuan (-25%), and 0.39 yuan (-17%) respectively [2] - The target price is based on a 31x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting optimism about the hotel business recovery [2] - The company's market capitalization stands at 7.34 billion yuan, with a current stock price of 10.14 yuan [4] Historical Performance - The stock price has fluctuated between 8.86 yuan and 12.14 yuan over the past 52 weeks [4] - Over the past 12 months, the stock has underperformed the market, with a -4% absolute return and -13% relative to the index [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][3] Core Views - The company experienced revenue growth pressure, but the traditional Chinese medicine segment performed relatively well. The Torch project continues to operate steadily, with a sustained increase in gross margin [2][3] - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.29 billion (up 1.18%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 127 million (down 37.32%), which is in line with expectations [3] - Due to slowing revenue growth and rigid expense outlays, the EPS forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised down to 1.09, 1.25, and 1.42 yuan respectively, while the target price has been raised to 21.25 yuan based on a PE of 17X for 2025 [3][5] Revenue Performance - Q3 2024 revenue breakdown: retail/franchise business revenue was 4.29 billion (up 2.2%) and 0.958 billion (down 4.0%) respectively. By product: Chinese and Western medicine revenue was 4.111 billion (down 0.7%), traditional Chinese medicine revenue was 0.498 billion (up 30.4%), and non-medicine revenue was 0.682 billion (down 3.8%) [3] - The slowdown in revenue growth is attributed to factors such as inventory pressure from pandemic-related products, tightening of out-of-hospital insurance policies in some regions, and a decrease in store opening rates [3] Gross Margin and Profitability - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 32.93% (up 0.88 percentage points), continuing to improve throughout 2024 due to the Torch project optimizing gross margins through various initiatives [3] - The company has maintained good expense control, with sales expenses growing only 4.23% year-on-year in Q3 2024, but profit was still pressured due to rigid expenses and slowing revenue growth [3] Store Expansion and Market Strategy - As of Q3 2024, the company had 15,591 stores (10,300 direct and 5,291 franchise), with a slowdown in store growth and a significant reduction in acquisition numbers due to increased competition in the out-of-hospital retail market [3] - The company is focusing on improving operational quality and may increase acquisition numbers in the future as pressures on small and medium-sized pharmacies rise [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with a comprehensive layout in the industrial chain and significant cost advantages in industrial silicon. The company is extending its product range to include polysilicon, photovoltaic glass, battery cells, and modules, with capacity gradually being released [3][4]. - The target price has been raised to 66.30 yuan from the previous 63.35 yuan, based on a projected 30 times PE for 2025 [4][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 20.371 billion yuan and 1.454 billion yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year changes of +2.44% and -33.42%. The revenue for Q3 2024 was 7.099 billion yuan, with a net profit of 476 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -10.68% and +18.42% [4]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 19.61%, up 49.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.61%, an increase of 1.65 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company’s main products saw production volumes of 480,400 tons for industrial silicon and 114,900 tons for 110 raw rubber, with sales volumes of 348,100 tons and 96,200 tons, respectively [4]. - The average price of industrial silicon decreased by 10.02% year-on-year and 7.68% quarter-on-quarter, while costs for key materials like silicon ore and petroleum coke also declined [4]. Industry Position and Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in both organic silicon and industrial silicon, leveraging synergies in the "coal-electricity-silicon" collaborative development model. The production capacity for polysilicon is gradually being released, and the company is entering the core areas of the photovoltaic industry [4][5]. - The company’s projects, including the third phase of organic silicon in Xinjiang and the second phase of industrial silicon in the eastern region, have reached production capacity, enhancing the integrated advantages of the industrial chain [4].