Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" [25] Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance announced a comprehensive fiscal plan with a focus on debt resolution, which is expected to significantly alleviate local government debt pressure and free up resources for economic development [24][33] - Short-term focus is recommended on environmental companies with high accounts receivable pressure, such as "Bishuiyuan" and "Mengcao Ecology," while long-term prospects are positive for sectors with clear business models like sanitation services and waste treatment [24][33] - Industrial power generation data for September shows accelerated growth in thermal and wind power generation, with wind power increasing by 31.6% year-on-year [24][33] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - From October 12 to October 18, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.36%, the ChiNext Index increased by 4.49%, while the public utility index fell by 0.76% and the environmental index rose by 4.08% [55] Market Information Tracking - The national carbon emissions trading market saw a total transaction volume of 3.4553 million tons and a total transaction value of 346 million yuan this week [36] - The average transaction price for carbon emissions in Beijing was the highest at 109.68 yuan/ton, while Fujian had the lowest at 26.72 yuan/ton [36] Focused Target Portfolio - Recommended stocks include "China General Nuclear Power," "China Nuclear Power," "Xinj Energy," "Shaanxi Energy," "Lantian Gas," "Fuan Energy," and "Wang Natural Gas" [34][36] Industry News - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment released the 2024 National Environmental Health Management Pilot List, designating 23 regions including Haidian District in Beijing as pilot areas [43] - The People's Bank of China and other departments issued opinions to enhance green finance services for the construction of a beautiful China [43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market" for the computer industry [7][24]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of hard technology in advancing China's modernization, highlighting three key investment opportunities in the computer sector [2][11]. - The semiconductor industry is identified as a focal point in the Sino-US technology competition, with significant progress in domestic computing capabilities and AI computing demand [3][12]. - The report underscores the significance of independent and controllable core software, particularly in databases and operating systems, as essential components of the domestic innovation industry [4][13]. - The evolution of basic tools and hardware is crucial for industrial upgrades, with a focus on reducing product development cycles and costs, indicating substantial growth potential for domestic manufacturers [8][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Perspective - The report discusses the role of hard technology in achieving self-reliance and innovation in the computer industry, as articulated by the Chinese leadership [2][11]. 2. Market Performance Review - The computer industry index increased by 11.15% this week, outperforming both the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index by 8.20% and 6.66%, respectively [15][16]. - The report highlights strong individual stock performances, with notable gains from companies like Renzi Hang (64.62%) and Changliang Technology (43.67%) [19][20]. 3. Industry News Overview - The report outlines government initiatives supporting small and medium enterprises, emphasizing the growth of specialized and innovative companies [21]. - It details the release of the "Action Plan for Trusted Data Space Development (2024-2028)" aimed at promoting data economy and compliance [22]. - The establishment of a dedicated low-altitude economy management bureau is noted, reflecting the government's commitment to developing this sector [23].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.36%, while the ChiNext Index surged by 4.49%, and the Hang Seng Index fell by 2.11%[1] - The average daily trading volume of the A-share market was 1.6679 trillion yuan, a decrease from the previous week[1] - The growth style outperformed the value style, with industries like photoresist and stock trading software leading the gains[1] Policy and Economic Factors - A series of easing policies announced during the Financial Street Forum have boosted market confidence[1] - The industrial enterprise finished goods inventory increased by 5.10% year-on-year as of August 2024, indicating a slow replenishment of inventory[1] - The market is entering a period of policy verification and observation of implementation effects, with the inventory cycle becoming a key focus[1] External Influences - The upcoming U.S. election is expected to increase the impact of external factors on A-share pricing, with the RMB exchange rate becoming a critical factor[1] - Northbound capital holdings increased by 7.395 billion shares, with the market value rising by 496.588 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2024[1] - The RMB exchange rate experienced significant fluctuations, with a sharp appreciation during the National Day holiday followed by depreciation due to a stronger dollar[1] Historical Comparisons - The current market rebound is compared to the 2019 reversal, where the market rose by 30% before entering a consolidation phase[1] - The possibility of replicating the 1999 "519" market surge, which saw a 60% increase in two months, is deemed unrealistic[1] - The market is expected to transition into a "volatile market" phase, with structural opportunities in sectors like semiconductors[1] Sector Performance - The ChiNext and STAR 50 indices have shown strong performance, with the STAR 50 index up by 12.18% since October[1] - Among 124 secondary industries, only 33 have seen positive returns since October, with most concentrated in technology sectors like electronics and semiconductors[1] Risk Factors - Domestic policy implementation may fall short of expectations, and overseas monetary policy changes could exceed expectations[1] - The market faces uncertainties from the U.S. election and potential fluctuations in foreign capital flows[1]

2024 年 10 月 20 日 分歧低点已现，短期或类似于 2020 年 7 月中旬 本期要点：分歧低点已现，短期或类似于 2020 年 7 月中旬 前期提到历次牛市中一般有上涨三部曲的说法，从情绪上看一般对 应着从一致、分歧到再确认的过程。上周五成交金额超过 2 万亿的大 阳线使得当下应该已经基本确认了这波分歧过程中的指数下限，进 而处于从分歧到再确认的胶着状态中。 考虑到前期第一波上涨过程涨速过快以及成交量过大的现象，市场 整体的筹码结构不够稳定，虽然 10 月 9 日以来经过了一定的震荡调 整，但参考历史大涨过程中的量能规律来看，当前的震荡整理时间或 仍然偏短，正常情形下或不足以马上发动一波创新高的上行趋势。 从量能涨跌等角度看，短期或可将当前走势与 2020 年 7 月 20 日前 后的走势进行类比。在这一过程中，或将有不错的结构性行情出现， 但整体指数或难以创新高。所以除非是逻辑以及基本面特别确定的 结构性机会，否则整体操作上或宜以波段操作，快进快出为主。 板块结构上，在分歧到再确认的过程中，由于市场的做多情绪仍有惯 性，风险偏好仍然较高，所以偏科技和成长方向的板块或仍有优势。 具体而言，我们的四 ...

zhougy@essence.com.cn 行业周报 2024 年 10 月 20 日 有色金属 氧化铝价格维持强势，避险情绪高位黄 金续创新高 工业金属：三季度 GDP 平稳增长，海外二次通胀担忧持续 国内方面，国家统计局数据显示 GDP 三季度增长 4.6%，前三季度， 全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.8%，经济运行稳中有进。国新 办新闻发布会，介绍促进房地产市场平稳健康发展有关情况，会上央 行表示会同有关部门正在抓紧研究，允许政策性银行、商业银行向有 条件的企业发放贷款，收购房企存量土地，央行提供必要的专项再贷 款支持。海外方面，欧洲央行宣布年内第三次降息，将三大关键利率 均下调 25 个基点。美联储理事沃勒表示，近期的就业、通胀数据表 明，经济放缓幅度可能没有预期得那么大，后续降息步伐应比 9 月会 议时更为谨慎，以确保不会发生二次通胀。国内支持政策延续，内外 共振利好工业金属。建议关注：洛阳钼业、金诚信、西部矿业、藏格 矿业、河钢资源、江西铜业、铜陵有色、云南铜业、华锡有色、锡业 股份、兴业银锡、神火股份、云铝股份、中国铝业、天山铝业、创新 新材、南山铝业、索通发展等。 铜：下游消费回升但程度有 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the biopharmaceutical sector [6]. Core Insights - Recently, Heng Rui Medicine resubmitted its Biologics License Application (BLA) for Camrelizumab combined with Rivoceranib for the first-line treatment of unresectable or metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma, which has been officially accepted by the FDA [2][20]. - The domestic innovative drug export is thriving, with several innovative drugs already approved by the FDA, including drugs from companies like BeiGene and Legend Biotech, indicating a promising future for these products in the U.S. market [2][20]. - The report highlights that there are multiple biosimilars currently under FDA review, suggesting ongoing opportunities for growth in overseas markets [2][20]. Weekly New Drug Market Review - From October 14 to October 18, 2024, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock performance were: - Lai Kai Medicine (42.26%) - Bei Hai Kang Cheng (25.00%) - Zai Ding Medicine (14.38%) - Ya Sheng Medicine (13.30%) - He Yu Biology (12.87%) - Conversely, the top five companies with the largest declines were: - WuXi AppTec (-16.06%) - Keji Pharmaceutical (-15.58%) - Sheng Nuo Medicine (-14.32%) - Yi Ming Ang Ke (-13.70%) - Teng Sheng Bo Medicine (-10.83%) [1][16]. New Drug Approval & Acceptance Status - This week, five new drugs or new indications were approved for market launch, 49 new drugs received IND approval, 56 new INDs were accepted, and 11 new NDAs were accepted [22][30]. - Notable approvals include: - Heng Rui Medicine's Camrelizumab combined with Rivoceranib for liver cancer received FDA acceptance [3][30]. - Rongchang Biopharmaceutical's new indication for Vidi Xi Tuo monoclonal antibody received acceptance from NMPA [3][30]. - Microchip Biopharmaceutical announced positive results for its Phase II clinical study of sodium siglitazone for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease [3][30]. Industry Performance - The biopharmaceutical sector has shown a relative return of 0.5% over the past month, with an absolute return of 24.2% [5]. - The sector has experienced a decline of 27% from October 2023 to February 2024, indicating volatility in the market [5]. Key Focus Areas in Domestic New Drug Industry - The report emphasizes ongoing developments in the domestic new drug industry, with several companies making significant progress in clinical trials and product approvals, including: - Heng Rui Medicine's multiple new cancer drugs receiving clinical trial approvals [30]. - Rongchang Biopharmaceutical's new indication for its monoclonal antibody [30]. - Microchip Biopharmaceutical's promising clinical results for its new drug [30].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the semiconductor industry is "Outperform the Market - A" [3] Core Insights - TSMC reported strong Q3 2024 earnings with revenue of NT$759.69 billion, a 39% year-on-year increase, and net profit of NT$325.26 billion, up 54.2% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [1] - The global wafer foundry market is expected to grow by 20% in 2025, driven primarily by high-performance computing (HPC) applications, with TSMC leading the growth [3][6] - TSMC's global expansion efforts are showing success, with significant progress in overseas factories in the US, Japan, and Germany [6] Summary by Sections TSMC Performance - TSMC's Q3 2024 revenue was NT$759.69 billion, with a net profit of NT$325.26 billion, both surpassing market forecasts [1] - HPC revenue accounted for 51% of TSMC's total revenue, while smartphone revenue increased to 34% [1] Industry Growth Projections - The global wafer foundry market is projected to grow by 20% in 2025, with TSMC expected to outperform other foundries, which are projected to grow by nearly 12% [3] - The demand for AI applications is driving the need for high-performance computing chips, which is the main growth driver for the advanced process and overall foundry industry [3][6] Market Trends - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant increase in capital expenditure, with TSMC's 2nm process expected to lead to record capital spending [3] - The domestic semiconductor market in China is expected to see a notable increase in mature process capacity by 2027, surpassing Taiwan [3] Investment Recommendations - Suggested stocks for investment include companies in information security, chip design, semiconductor equipment, and the AI industry chain [8]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperforming the Market - A" [2] Core Viewpoints - The upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival is expected to boost domestic demand for home appliances, with e-commerce platforms starting their promotions earlier than last year [2] - Increased price discounts and the combination of government subsidies for replacing old appliances are anticipated to enhance consumer purchasing power [2] Summary by Sections Double Eleven Activities - E-commerce platforms like JD.com and Tmall have initiated their Double Eleven activities earlier this year, with JD.com starting on October 14 and Tmall on the same date [3][6] - JD.com has increased its discount offerings, including a new promotion of 20 yuan off for every 200 yuan spent, compared to last year's 50 yuan off for every 299 yuan spent [3] Company Performance - Gree Electric Appliances is projected to have a revenue growth of 4% in 2024, while Midea Group is expected to grow by 9% [24] - Haier Smart Home anticipates a revenue increase of 6%, and Hisense Visual is expected to grow by 8% [24] - In the U.S. market, iRobot is projected to see a revenue decline of 13%, while Whirlpool expects a decrease of 14% [25] - In the European market, Electrolux is expected to have a revenue decline of 1%, while Cyber is projected to grow by 3% [26] Market Trends - The report highlights a significant increase in home appliance sales during the Double Eleven period, driven by early promotions and enhanced discounts [2] - The overall sentiment in the home appliance industry remains positive, with expectations of growth in both domestic and international markets [2][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company [2][3] Core Views - The company's share buyback plan is expected to enhance shareholder returns and increase investment value by reducing total share capital and improving earnings per share [1] - Domestic demand is anticipated to recover due to government policies, while the company is expected to maintain strong export growth, particularly in emerging markets [1] - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth of 6.8%, 16.5%, and 17.3% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit growth of 14.2%, 35.7%, and 23.3% during the same period [2] Financial Projections - Revenue estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 502.7 billion, 585.6 billion, and 687 billion, respectively [2][9] - Net profit estimates for the same years are 40 billion, 54.3 billion, and 67 billion, respectively [2][9] - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 15.5X, 11.4X, and 9.2X, respectively [2] Market Performance - The company's market capitalization is approximately 58.32 billion, with a circulating market value of about 47.51 billion [3] - The stock price as of October 17, 2024, is 6.72 yuan, with a 12-month price range of 5.75 to 9.35 yuan [3] Business Dynamics - The company is expected to benefit from a solid market share in traditional businesses and growth from emerging sectors such as earthmoving, aerial, agricultural, and mining machinery [2] - The "end-to-end" direct sales model is aiding the company in expanding its international market presence [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 190.6 CNY per share, maintaining the rating [4][5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 11.45 billion CNY for Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.98%, and a net profit of 1.08 billion CNY, up 34.87% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company continues to experience high growth driven by four core growth logic factors: improvement in product structure for all-terrain vehicles, a new product cycle for mid-to-large displacement motorcycles, accelerated overseas expansion of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles, and gradual development of the electric two-wheeler business [5][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.92 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 36.11%, while the gross margin was 31.57%, a decrease of 2.10 percentage points year-on-year [4][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was 373 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 48.95% [4][3]. Growth Drivers - The company has become the market leader in the European ATV sector and is expanding into higher-value UTV and SSV products, with four new models launched in August 2024 [5][4]. - The domestic market for mid-to-large displacement motorcycles is entering a new product cycle, with several potential blockbuster models expected to enhance market share [5][4]. - The company has seen significant growth in overseas sales, with 85,800 units exported in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 45.07% [5][4]. - The electric two-wheeler segment is also gaining traction, with new high-end models launched and a significant increase in domestic and international channel expansion [5][4]. Valuation Metrics - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.43 billion CNY, 1.80 billion CNY, and 2.41 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.7, 12.5, and 9.3 [7][8]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 15.39 billion CNY in 2024 to 23.17 billion CNY in 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [7][8].