A股研究报告|2024年3月19日 引入加盟特许经营模式，公司门店规模有望进一步提升 —海底捞（06862.HK）投资价值分析报告 ⚫ 群众基础良好，预计2024年火锅行业市场规模将超5500亿元 由于强社交属性、食材及口味的多样性，火锅是我国最受欢迎的外出就 公司投资评级 餐选择，在我国餐饮行业中占据较大比重。根据红餐大数据，火锅门店 推荐（首次） 在新一线城市分布最多，占比 23.1%，在二线及以上城市门店数占比达 到 49.1%，近几年随着三线及以下城市消费能力提升，三线及以下城市 火锅门店同步增长。据路过网络数据，2023年以来，受益于出行恢复， 公司深度报告 线下门店客流恢复，以及品牌推出外卖、自提、自热火锅等多种服务， 2023年火锅市场恢复增长，预计市场规模有望超过5000亿元，按5%增 华通证券国际有限公司研究部 幅计算，预计2024年火锅行业市场规模将超5500亿元。 ⚫ 海底捞品牌知名度高，创新产品和服务下公司翻台率有所提升 社会服务行业组 服务是海底捞能够在餐饮市场脱颖而出的关键，近几年，海底捞餐厅多 SFC:AAK004 次以创新服务及创新菜品进入消费者视野，带动餐厅翻台率提升。目前， ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommended (First Time)" investment rating to the company, with a target price of 39.93 CNY per share over the next six months, indicating a potential upside of 30.79% from the current price of 30.53 CNY per share [9][88]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 12.07%, 11.39%, and 11.42% for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, with projected revenues of 1.65 billion, 1.84 billion, and 2.05 billion CNY [5][21]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 379 million, 466 million, and 524 million CNY for the same years, corresponding to EPS of 1.21, 1.49, and 1.67 CNY [5][21]. - The company is benefiting from a stable growth in its main business, China Manufacturing Network, and the introduction of AI-powered services is expected to contribute to new growth points [9][88]. Company Overview - The company operates in the cross-border e-commerce sector, primarily through its platform, China Manufacturing Network, which connects Chinese suppliers with international buyers [20][65]. - The company has over 27 years of experience in providing e-commerce services to export-oriented SMEs, accumulating a significant amount of quality B-class customer resources [20][44]. Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 78.48% and a net margin of 26.25% for the first three quarters of 2023, with total revenue of 1.12 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.44% [39][69]. - The report highlights a continuous improvement in operational efficiency, with a decrease in various expense ratios, including sales, management, and financial expenses [69][100]. Industry Analysis - The cross-border e-commerce industry in China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.4% from 2023 to 2025, driven by economic recovery and increasing international trade [62][58]. - The report notes that China's export market share is expected to remain stable at around 14%, indicating a solid competitive advantage for the manufacturing sector [8][14].