证 2024 年 08 月 12 日 研 报 告 公 司 研 究 究 持续增加优质储量，油价下行催化公司利润修复 —中国石化（600028.SH）公司动态研究报告 ▌ 投资"深地工程"，增加优质规模储量 2023 年公司多个勘探项目取得重大突破。公司原油探明 储量达到 2003 百万桶，同比增长 2.09%；天然气探明储量达 到 9.3 万亿立方英尺，同比增长 5.73%。公司计划在 2024 年 加强风险勘探，加大"深地工程"、页岩油气等领域勘探力 度，以继续增加优质规模储量。根据公司公告，2024 年公司 资本支出预算保持稳定，总额为人民币 1730 亿元，保持在 1700 亿元以上，其中勘探、炼油、营销、化工支出预计分别 占资本支出预算总额的约 45%、14%、11%和 26%。公司规划 2024 年产量目标为原油 279.06 百万桶，天然气 1.4 万亿立 方英尺。 ▌ 供给端有取消减产压力和需求有衰退预期，双重 压力下油价有高位回调预期，公司盈利能力有望改 善 随着四季度临近，欧佩克取消自愿性减产越来越近，供 给端有可能面临较大压力，近期美国多项就业数据严重偏离 市场预期，引发市场对美国衰退、原油 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking it as the first time this rating has been given [2]. Core Insights - The company has turned a profit in Q2 2024, aided by a rebound in pig prices and improved feed material costs, leading to a significant reduction in losses compared to H1 2023 [2][4]. - The company aims to increase its feed sales volume by 50% in 2024, targeting a total of 102.02 million tons, supported by innovative marketing strategies and an expanded sales team [2][5]. - The company is focused on reducing breeding costs, with expectations that the cost of pig sales will remain below 15.5 yuan per kilogram for the full year 2024, enhancing profitability [2][5]. Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders between -43 million to -39 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit forecasted between -41 million to -37 million yuan [2]. - In Q2 2024, the company expects to achieve a net profit of 9 to 13 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 5 to 9 million yuan [2]. - The company reported a 27.15% year-on-year increase in pig sales revenue for H1 2024, totaling 772 million yuan, with a 10% increase in the number of pigs sold [2][5]. Revenue Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are 51.60 billion yuan for 2024, 61.40 billion yuan for 2025, and 70.49 billion yuan for 2026, with corresponding EPS of 0.21, 0.30, and 0.29 yuan [5][7]. - The company is expected to see a revenue growth rate of 27.7% in 2024, followed by 19.0% in 2025 and 14.8% in 2026 [7]. Capital Structure - The company's debt ratio peaked at 74.06% at the end of 2023 but is expected to decline gradually as profitability improves and pig prices recover [4][5]. - As of Q1 2024, the debt ratio was reported at 73.66%, indicating a positive trend towards financial stability [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 697 million yuan for the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.19%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 44.57 million yuan, up 39.26% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 41.35 million yuan, increasing by 34.92% [2][3] - The significant growth in net profit is attributed to increased foreign exchange gains and a reduction in bad debt provisions, indicating effective risk management [3] - The company holds a leading market share in the domestic vinyl ester resin market, with notable growth in wind power materials, which saw a year-on-year increase of 29% [4] - The company is expanding into new fields such as circular economy materials and low-altitude economy, aligning with national development strategies [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 363 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.9%, and a net profit of 26.12 million yuan, up 41.64% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The forecast for revenue from 2024 to 2026 is projected at 1.57 billion, 1.79 billion, and 2.05 billion yuan respectively, with EPS estimates of 0.20, 0.23, and 0.26 yuan [6] Market Position - The company is a leader in the production of environmentally friendly, high-performance corrosion-resistant materials and materials for wind turbine blades, maintaining a strong market presence [4] - The wind power materials segment is expected to continue its rapid growth, contributing significantly to overall revenue [4] Future Growth Potential - The company is actively developing products for the circular economy and low-altitude economy sectors, with partnerships established for product development and supply agreements [5] - The strategic focus on innovation and expanding product lines is expected to open new growth avenues [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking it as the first time this rating has been given [2]. Core Insights - The company has turned a profit in Q2 2024, aided by a rebound in pig prices and improved feed material costs, leading to a significant reduction in losses compared to the previous year [2][4]. - The company aims to increase its feed sales volume by 50% in 2024, targeting a total of 102.02 million tons, supported by innovative marketing strategies and an expanded sales team [2][5]. - The company is focused on reducing breeding costs, with expectations that the cost of pig sales will remain below 15.5 yuan per kilogram in 2024, contributing to improved profit margins [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders between -43 million to -39 million yuan, with a significant reduction in losses compared to H1 2023 [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 772 million yuan from pig sales in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27.15%, with a total of 598,900 pigs sold, marking a 10% increase [2][5]. Market Position - The company achieved a revenue of 2.6 billion yuan from feed processing in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.78%, with feed sales volume reaching 680,100 tons, up 16.70% [2][5]. - As a pioneer in the early-stage feed market in China, the company has a leading advantage in the niche of feed for piglets, with a comprehensive product matrix covering various growth stages of pigs [2][5]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are projected at 5.16 billion yuan in 2024, 6.14 billion yuan in 2025, and 7.05 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding EPS of 0.21, 0.30, and 0.29 yuan [5][7]. - The company is expected to improve its capital structure, with a gradual decrease in the debt ratio from 74.06% at the end of 2023 to 73.66% in Q1 2024, as profitability improves [4][5].

证 2024 年 08 月 12 日 告 公 司 研 究 究 报 聚烯烃量价齐升，煤制烯烃龙头业绩大幅增长 —宝丰能源（600989.SH）公司事件点评报告 宝丰能源发布半年度报告，2024 年上半年实现营业收入 168.97 亿元，同比增长 29.09%；实现归母净利润 33.05 亿 元，同比增长 46.44%。其中，24Q2 单季度实现营业收入 86.7 亿元，同比增长 36.39%、环比增长 5.39%，实现归母净 利润 18.8 亿元，同比增长 75.8%、环比增长 32.57%。 投资要点 ▌ 聚烯烃量价齐升，盈利能力大幅提升是公司上半 年实现收入和利润大幅增长的主要原因 2024 年上半年受益于 2023 年宁东三期煤制烯烃项目投产， 公司主要产品聚烯烃产量 122.27 万吨，同比增长 87%，同时 上半年主要原料煤炭价格出现回落，以鄂尔多斯市场 5500 大 卡动力煤为例，上半年市场均价 658 元/吨，同比-1.7%，而 且聚烯烃价格受原油价格上涨等成本端支撑出现上涨，聚乙 烯产品以 LLDPE 薄膜料为例，2024 年上半年产品均价 8417 元/吨，同比+2.6%，公司主营产品聚烯烃价 ...

2024 年 08 月 12 日 报 告 研 究 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 (%) 基础化工 沪深300 券 研 究 TDI、苯胺等涨幅居前，建议继续关注轮胎板块 和农化板块 —基础化工行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 ▌苯胺、TDI 等涨幅居前，液氯三氯乙烯等跌幅较大 分析师：张伟保 S1050523110001 zhangwb@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：刘韩 S1050122080022 liuhan@cfsc.com.cn 周环比涨幅较大的产品：苯胺（华东地区，6.94%），TDI （华东，5.64%），天然气（NYMEX 天然气，4.47%），合成 氨（河北金源，4.22%），二氯甲烷（华东地区，3.67%）， 天然橡胶（马来 20 号标胶 SMR20，3.24%），硫磺（温哥华 FOB 合同价，2.78%），黄磷（四川地区，2.71%），环氧氯 丙烷（华东地区，2.60%），PVA（国内聚乙烯醇，2.27%）。 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 基础化工(申万) -6.3 -19.1 -23.9 沪深 300 -4.1 -9.1 -14.2 周环比跌幅 ...

证 2024 年 08 月 12 日 告 行 研 究 享界 S9 上市 3 天大定突破 4800 辆，Figure02 多 方面取得关键突破 —汽车行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：林子健 S1050523090001 linzj@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------|-------|-------| | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 汽车(申万) | -8.1 | -12.1 | -11.3 | | 沪深 300 | -4.1 | -9.1 | -14.2 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《汽车行业动态研究报告：新势 力 7 月销量点评：零跑交付量创历 史新高，理想、鸿蒙智行稳居高端 新势力品牌前二》2024-08-06 2、《汽车行业周报：鸿蒙智行 7 月 交付新车破 4 万，Figure02 将于 8 月 6 日发布》2024-08-05 3、《汽车行业深度报告：中国豪华 车市场分析： 市场持续扩容，自主品牌拾级 而上》2024-08-01 业 -25 - ...

证 券 研 报 公 司 研 2024 年 08 月 12 日 究 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 BASF发布不可抗拒力，关注维生素提价弹性 医药行业周报 报告日期： 推荐 （维持） 投资评级： 2024年08月11日 ◼ 分析师：胡博新 ◼ SAC编号：S1050522120002 医 药 行 业 观 点 1. BASF发布不可抗拒力，维生素E/A提价弹性加大 8月7日，BASF宣布VA、VE和类胡萝卜素以及部分芳香成分遭遇不可抗力，将于8月16日宣布已签合同的执行方案，停产 影响时间将进一步明确，我们预计停产影响供应周期将在6个月左右。不可抗力发布之后，VE和VA生产企业继续报停停签， 经销商也谨慎供货报价。对于原来已经处于提价趋势中的VE，BASF事故加速了提价的节奏，VE国内市场报价已从7月底的 93元/kg，提升至140元/kg，VE欧洲市场成交价格也同步上调，下游库存采购积极，未来VE国内价格有望达到200元/kg。 推动本轮VE等原料药品种涨价的驱动因素主要是供给端龙头企业经营策略转变，其提价的延续性受品种的供应格局影响。 根据医保商会数据，2023年中国原料药出口呈下降的趋势，国内竞争导致价格下滑，化学原料药子行业利润下降。低价竞 争下，部分品种的供应格局 ...

证 2024 年 08 月 11 日 告 行 研 究 究 报 铜杆-线缆链条需求好转，铜价有支撑 —有色金属行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：傅鸿浩 S1050521120004 fuhh@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杜飞 S1050523070001 dufei2@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|-------|-------|-------| | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 有色金属(申万) | -13.0 | -18.6 | -13.1 | | 沪深 300 | -3.9 | -9.1 | -14.2 | 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《有色金属行业周报：美国各项 经济数据均低于预期，黄金价格或 将进入下一轮上涨》2024-08-05 2、《有色金属行业周报：美国 CPI 同比回落，降息预期提升支撑贵金 属》2024-07-15 3、《有色金属行业周报：美国失业 率持续反弹，降息预期再 ...