证 券 2024 年 03 月 31 日 研 究 铜金产量持续提升，主要矿山将进一步扩产 报 告 —紫金矿业（601899.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：傅鸿浩 S1050521120004 紫金矿业发布 2023 年年度报告：公司 2023 年实现营业收入 fuhh@cfsc.com.cn 2934.03 亿元，同比增加 8.54%；归母净利润 211.19 亿元， 分析师：杜飞 S1050523070001 同比增加 5.38%；扣除非经常性损益后的归母净利润 216.17 dufei2@cfsc.com.cn 亿元，同比增加 10.68%。 基本数据 2024-03-29 投资要点 当前股价（元） 16.82 总市值（亿元） 4428 ▌ 产品产量明显增长，矿产铜突破百万吨大关 总股本（百万股） 26326 公司矿产资源丰富，目前保有权益资源量铜约 7500 万吨、黄 流通股本（百万股） 20556 金约 3000 吨、锌（铅）超过 1000 万吨、银约 1.5 万吨，当 52周价格范围（元） 10.52-16.82 量碳酸锂超过 1300 万吨。2023 年公司矿产铜实现历史性重 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - The financing balance has experienced a slight outflow, with changes in financing balance amounting to approximately -1000 million CNY[1] - The proportion of financing transactions has rapidly declined, indicating a shift in market dynamics[1] - The issuance of equity funds has decreased to 6.588 billion CNY, down by 21.41% week-on-week[2] Group 2: Fund Performance - The available cash for equity funds has decreased to 251.507 billion CNY, reflecting a reduction of 68.30 million CNY week-on-week[2] - Northbound capital has seen a net inflow of 5.381 billion CNY, which is an increase of 131.58 million CNY compared to the previous week[7] - The bullish sentiment in overseas markets, as indicated by the iShare China ETF options, has decreased, with a reduction of 44,000 contracts[7] Group 3: Investment Insights - There is a growing divergence between domestic and foreign capital, with both showing interest in the pharmaceutical and non-bank financial sectors while withdrawing from banking and automotive sectors[11] - The central government is currently increasing leverage, with a significant expansion in the broad deficit rate by 0.85 percentage points, indicating a shift in fiscal policy[27] - The current monetary policy environment in China still has room for maneuver, with MLF rates at 2.5% and 7-day reverse repo rates at 1.8%[27]

证 研 司 公司正式迈入华为生态圈。随着新鸿蒙操作系统商业化的逐 步加快，各大商业银行正积极展开鸿蒙操作系统的适配，公 司也已经参与了部分客户的鸿蒙 APP 的适配改造工作，深度 投身金融信创产业建设。公司自主研发并向客户提供服务的 五款产品已经顺利通过华为鲲鹏技术认证。截至 1 月 25 日最 新数据，公司已有 913 人次通过鸿蒙开发资质认证，可以满 足公司当前银行客户大规模鸿蒙版电子渠道建设的需求。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|-------------------------|-------|-------|-------| | 预测指标 | 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E | | | | | 主营收入（百万元） | 606 | 601 | 779 | 1,000 | | 增长率（ %） 43.8% | | -0.8% | 29.5% | 28.5% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 52 | 71 | 91 | 120 | | 增长率（%） | 2.3% | 38.8% | 27.3% | 32.1% ...

报 告 策 究 券 研 究 指数震荡趋稳成交量能收缩，热点题材标的顺势 上涨 —北交所周报 投资要点 ▌ 北证大盘指数概览 指数点位：本周华鑫北证综指报收 731.06 点，周内下跌 2.38%，北证 50 指数报收 845.79 点，周内下跌 1.87%，同期 沪深 300 指数下跌 0.21%。成交额：本周北交所每日成交额 分别为 57.53/49.76/55.59/50.60/47.92 亿元，周内日均成 交额为 52.28 亿元，相比上周日均成交额 63.88 亿元减少 18.16%。估值：截至 3 月 29 日，北证 A 股在剔除负值后得到 共 227 家上市公司样本，样本的 PE 均值为 42.17 倍，PE 中 位数为 24.28 倍，样本整体市盈率分布呈右偏。 本周受益于"低空经济""汽车拆解"等市场热点题材概 念，相关北证标的实现顺势上涨，其中"低空经济"相关标 的恒拓开源本周上涨 9.86%，本周四（3 月 28 日）强势涨 停；"汽车拆解"相关标的德众汽车本周上涨 13.10%，本周 5 个交易日中共录得 4 日上涨。 ▌ 北证行业概览 截至 3 月 29 日，北证共 247 家上市公司 ...

证 券 2024 年 04 月 01 日 研 究 政策持续加码，低空经济催化不断 报 告 —电力设备行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：傅鸿浩 S1050521120004 ▌政策持续加码，低空经济催化不断 fuhh@cfsc.com.cn “低空经济”是以民用有人或无人驾驶航空器为主体，以 分析师：臧天律 S1050522120001 载人、载货等多场景低空飞行活动为牵引，带动相关领域 zangtl@cfsc.com.cn 发展的综合经济形态，产业链条包括航空器制造、低空空 行业相对表现 域飞行、基础设施建设运营、低空服务产业等。3 月 27 日，工业和信息化部、科学技术部、财政部、中国民用航 表现 1M 3M 12M 空局等四部门近日联合印发《通用航空装备创新应用实施 电力设备(申万) 2.7 -4.3 -29.1 沪深300 -0 .0 3.1 -12.7 方案（2024—2030年）》，提出到 2027年，我国通用航空 装备供给能力、产业创新能力显著提升，到 2030 年，以高 市场表现 端化、智能化、绿色化为特征的通用航空产业发展新模式 (%) 电力设备 沪深300 基本建立，支撑和保障“短途 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's earnings are expected to recover, with the new materials platform providing long-term growth potential [2][4] - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 6.778 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 16.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 446 million yuan, down 48.50% year-on-year [2][3] - The decline in revenue and profit is primarily attributed to the pressure on EVA prices and a decrease in demand from key downstream sectors [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 6.778 billion yuan, with EVA sales revenue decreasing by 28.62% [2][3] - The gross margin for EVA fell by 10.1 percentage points to 40.95% due to weak market demand and price competition [2][3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in earnings for 2024, with projected revenues of 9.326 billion yuan, representing a growth rate of 37.6% [4][6] - The company is set to launch multiple new production facilities, which will enhance EVA cost reduction and increase high-margin product categories [3][4] Production Capacity - The company currently has an EVA production capacity of over 150,000 tons per year, with additional capacity of 200,000 tons planned to be operational by 2025 [3] - The company is also developing a 300,000 tons per year POE project, expected to enhance its competitive edge in the photovoltaic sector [3][4] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for 2024-2026 indicates revenues of 9.326 billion yuan, 11.966 billion yuan, and 14.245 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.57 yuan, 0.96 yuan, and 1.36 yuan [4][6] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 28.8, 17.1, and 12.1 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting the company's growth potential [4][6]

证 略 研 报 究 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | 1 、 | 北证软服指数上涨动能强于北证整体，板块波动性较大 ....................................... | 5 | | 2 、 | 北证软服行业整体估值正向全 A 和科创板趋同 ............................................... | 7 | | 3 、 | 上市公司盈利表现有别，重视高增长低估值标的 ............................................. | 9 | | | 3.1 、 乐创技术：点胶控制系统龙头企业 .................................................. | 10 | | | 3.2 、 艾融软件：优质金融 IT 服务商 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd. (000807.SZ) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the decline in aluminum prices has impacted the company's profitability, but it remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of green electricity aluminum prices [2] - The company reported a revenue of 426.69 billion yuan for 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 11.96%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 39.56 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.41% increase [2][4] - The report anticipates a recovery in the company's profitability due to ongoing investments in green electricity projects and rising aluminum prices [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's main revenue for 2023 was 42,669 million yuan, with a growth rate of -12.0% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 3,956 million yuan, with a growth rate of -13.4% [5] - Forecasted main revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 43,692 million yuan, 44,174 million yuan, and 44,656 million yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4,105 million yuan, 4,695 million yuan, and 5,289 million yuan [4][5] Production and Market Conditions - The report notes a decrease in production due to power restrictions in Yunnan, leading to a decline in the output of primary aluminum and alumina [2] - The average price of aluminum in the market was 18,702 yuan per ton in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 4.03% [2] - The report indicates that the company has successfully completed the construction of distributed photovoltaic projects, enhancing its green electricity supply channels with a cumulative installed capacity of 216 megawatts [3] Future Outlook - The report projects that the company's earnings will improve in the coming years, with PE ratios expected to decrease to 9.0 by 2026 [4] - The anticipated increase in aluminum prices and the company's strategic focus on green energy projects are expected to provide a competitive advantage in the long term [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance over the next 12 months [24][32]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the software services sector, focusing on IT solutions for industries such as insurance and banking. It has shown significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 1.687 billion, 2.135 billion, and 2.623 billion yuan for 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 28.2%, 26.6%, and 22.9% [3][24]. - The company has successfully turned around its profitability, with a forecasted net profit of 77 million yuan in 2023, 151 million yuan in 2024, and 192 million yuan in 2025, after a loss of 52 million yuan in 2022 [3][24]. - The introduction of the "New Knowledge Platform" in the AI sector is expected to drive further growth and innovation, enhancing the company's competitive edge and expanding its market share [24][32]. Financial Projections - Main revenue (in million yuan): 2022A: 1,315; 2023E: 1,687; 2024E: 2,135; 2025E: 2,623 [3]. - Growth rates: 2023E: 28.2%; 2024E: 26.6%; 2025E: 22.9% [3]. - Net profit (in million yuan): 2022A: -52; 2023E: 77; 2024E: 151; 2025E: 192 [3]. - EPS (in yuan): 2022A: -0.22; 2023E: 0.30; 2024E: 0.59; 2025E: 0.75 [3]. - ROE (%): 2022A: -3.7%; 2023E: 5.2%; 2024E: 9.6%; 2025E: 11.2% [3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively increasing its investment in AI and cloud computing technologies, which are expected to contribute significantly to its revenue growth and market expansion [24][32]. - The report highlights the company's commitment to digital transformation for its clients, leveraging AI to enhance business processes and operational efficiency [24][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [7][9]. Core Views - The company has shown significant year-on-year growth in performance, primarily due to cost reduction and decreased expenses [5]. - The "Thousand Cities, Ten Thousand Stores" strategy is steadily advancing, indicating a turning point in operational efficiency [6]. - Short-term same-store revenue is slightly pressured by external consumer environment factors, but the company is expected to return to a positive operational trajectory starting in 2024, with rapid store expansion and increasing concentration [7]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company's revenue was 1.921 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 71 million yuan, an increase of 129.1% year-on-year [22]. - The company’s gross margin for 2023 was 29.06%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 3.45%, up 2.46 percentage points year-on-year [22]. - The company’s operating cash flow for 2023 was 218 million yuan, a decrease of 43% [22]. - The number of stores reached 4,497 by the end of 2023, with a mix of 262 direct-operated and 4,235 franchised stores [23]. Earnings Forecast - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 and 2025 are 0.25 yuan and 0.33 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 33 and 25 times [7]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 2.270 billion yuan, representing an 18.2% growth rate, and the net profit is expected to reach 141 million yuan, reflecting a 100.5% growth rate [12].