农林牧渔 农业行业周报 同步大市-A(维持)) 农林牧渔行业近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻 | 首选股票 | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | 002311.SZ | 海大集团 | 买入-A | | 002299.SZ | 圣农发展 | 买入-B | | 300498.SZ | 温氏股份 | 买入-B | | 301498.SZ | 乖宝宠物 | 增持-A | | 002891.SZ | 中宠股份 | 增持-A | | 002567.SZ | 唐人神 | 增持-B | | 001201.SZ | 东瑞股份 | 增持-B | | 605296.SH | 神农集团 | 增持-B | | 603477.SH | 巨星农牧 | 增持-B | | 000876.SZ | 新希望 | 增持-B | 相关报告： 【山证农林牧渔】4 季度生猪养殖板块 有望继续保持良好盈利-【山证农业】农 业行业周报（2024.12.16-2024.12.22） 2024.12.25 【山证农林牧渔】4 季度生猪养殖板块 有望继续保持良好盈利-【山证农业】农 业行业周报（2024.12.09-2024.12.15） 2 ...

市场走势 资料来源：最闻 【今日要点】 研究早观点 2025 年 1 月 6 日 星期一 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,211.43 | -1.57 | | 深证成指 | | 9,897.12 | -1.89 | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,775.16 | -1.18 | | 中小板指 | | 6,075.61 | -1.52 | | 创业板指 | | 2,015.97 | -2.16 | | 科创 | 50 | 941.82 | -1.41 | 资料来源：最闻 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 【山证煤炭公用】电力月报-11 月用电量增速回落，看好后续需求修复 【固定收益】债市开门红，缘何大涨？ 【今日要点】 【山证煤炭公用】电力月报-11 月用电量增速回落，看好后续需求修复 胡博 hubo1@sxzq.com 【投 ...

研究早观点 2025 年 1 月 3 日 星期五 市场走势 整，降低乙烷等税率 【今日要点】 【行业评论】通信：山西证券通信行业周跟踪：AEC 处于短距 AI 应 用"甜蜜期"，国内 AIDC 建设持续加码 【行业评论】基础化工：行业周报（20241223-1229）-化工进口关税调 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,262.56 | -2.66 | | 深证成指 | | 10,088.06 | -3.14 | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,820.40 | -2.91 | | 中小板指 | | 6,169.08 | -3.34 | | 创业板指 | | 2,060.44 | -3.79 | | 科创 | 50 | 955.33 | -3.40 | 资料来源：最闻 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 资料来源：最闻 研究早观点 ...

电力及公用事业 电力月报 同步大市-A(维持) 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 刘贵军 执业登记编码：S0760519110001 邮箱：liuguijun@sxzq.com 11 月用电量增速回落，看好后续需求修复 2025 年 1 月 3 日 行业研究/行业月度报告 电力及公用事业板块近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻 首选股票 评级 相关报告： 【山证电力及公用事业】10 月用电量增 速回落，看好后续需求修复-【山证煤炭 公用】电力月报 2024.12.18 【山证电力及公用事业】供需两旺，火 电改善超预期-【山证煤炭公用】电力行 业 2024 年三季报综述 2024.11.27 分析师： 投资要点： 电力月度数据： 11 月行情回顾：11 月 CS 电力及公用事业板块下跌 1.77%，沪深 300 指 数上涨 0.66%，电力及公用事业跑输大盘 2.42 个百分点，涨幅位列 24/29。 中信三级行业分类板块中，火电下跌 4.69%，水电下跌 1.26%，燃气上涨 2.82%。 用电端： 1-11 月全社会用电量实现高速增长，11 月增速环比回落。1- ...

基础化工行业近一年市场表现 投资要点 周观点：化工进口关税调整，降低乙烷等税率。国务院关税税则委员会 发布《2025 年关税调整方案》，对 935 项商品实施低于最惠国税率的进口暂 定税率，其中与化工相关的产品涉及 10 种，新增乙烷、环硅酸锆钠、乙烯- 乙烯醇共聚物、环烯烃聚合物，分别降低税率为 1%/2.5%/3.5%/1.5%；删除 煤焦油及其他矿物焦油、车用汽油及航空汽油、柴油、氯乙烯、乙二醛，分 别增加税率为 5%/4%/5%/4.5%/2.5%，5-7 号燃料油改为燃料油，税率增加 2%。 以上涉及调整的化工产品 24 年 1-11 月进口量排序前五分别为 5-7 号燃料油、 乙烷、氯乙烯、煤焦油及其他矿物焦油、环烯烃聚合物，进口量对应为 2180/505/67/21/12 万吨，进口均价分别为 3620/3405/4144/3557/36351 元/吨。 进口关税的调整，利好国内炼油和乙烷行业。提升燃料油、煤焦油、氯乙烯 的进口关税，有利于提升国内炼油和氯碱生产企业的竞争力，减少进口的供 应压力；降低乙烷的进口关税，有利于降低乙烷裂解及加工等行业的进口成 本，提升该领域的竞争力。 石化：欧洲供应 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the electronic industry, indicating an expected price increase exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% [2][82]. Core Insights - The electronic industry has shown mixed performance in the market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.95% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.13%, while the Semiconductor Index declined by 0.60% [20][21]. - Key developments include Hon Hai (Foxconn) entering the R&D phase for NVIDIA's GB300 AI server, and Xiaomi building its own GPU cluster to support AI model development [75][76]. - The U.S. government has initiated a trade investigation into traditional Chinese semiconductors, which may lead to increased tariffs on chips used in everyday products [75][76]. Market Overview - The overall market performance for the week of December 23-27, 2024, showed varied results, with the semiconductor sector underperforming compared to other segments [20][21]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 3.18%, and the Taiwan Semiconductor Index increased by 4.90%, indicating stronger performance in these regions compared to the domestic market [20][21]. Sector Performance - Among sub-sectors, components (+1.32%), other electronics (+0.88%), and digital chip design (+0.63%) were the top performers for the week [20][21]. - Notable individual stock performances included DingTong Technology (+34.19%), ZhaoLong Interconnect (+32.73%), and ShiYiDa (+31.83%) [32][34]. Industry News - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the importance of foundational research and the development of key technologies during a recent visit to Zhejiang, highlighting the need for innovation to drive development [75]. - Xiaomi's initiative to establish a GPU cluster is part of its broader strategy to invest heavily in AI technologies, with a focus on enhancing its capabilities in AI model training [75][76].

Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,407.33 with a gain of 0.21% [3] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,671.16 with a gain of 0.10% [3] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3,999.05 with a gain of 0.45% [3] - The Small and Medium Enterprise Board Index closed at 6,527.71 with a gain of 0.15% [3] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2,206.29 with a gain of 0.06% [3] - The STAR 50 Index closed at 1,020.63 with a gain of 0.20% [3] Coal Industry Insights - The coal market is experiencing a reduction in port inventories, leading to a rebound in downstream coal prices [25][26] - As of December 27, the reference price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim was 766 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of -1.42% [26] - The inventory at northern ports decreased by 3.07% to 24.61 million tons [26] - The average price for metallurgical coal at Tianjin Port was 1,780 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of -2.73% [30] - The coal transportation index decreased by 3.21% to 661.29 points [30] Company-Specific Analysis: China Coal Energy (601898.SH) - China Coal Energy is a leading state-owned enterprise in the coal sector, with a focus on the entire coal industry chain [34] - The company has seen an increase in shareholding by its parent company, China Coal Group, which now holds 57.41% of shares [36] - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, projected at 37.7% for 2023 [36] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 are 1.30, 1.47, and 1.65 CNY, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9.1, 8.0, and 7.2 [38] - The investment rating for China Coal Energy has been upgraded to "Buy-A" based on growth prospects and valuation recovery expectations [38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the new materials sector [5]. Core Insights - The Guangdong Provincial Government has introduced an energy-saving and carbon reduction action plan, which is expected to drive rapid development in the wind power industry chain, benefiting companies like "Times New Materials" and "Meijia Xincai" [2]. - The new materials sector has experienced a decline, with the new materials index falling by 0.97%, underperforming the ChiNext index by 0.75% [2]. - The report highlights the significant potential for growth in the solid-phase synthesis carrier market due to the launch of Eli Lilly's weight loss drug, Tirzepatide, in China, with an expected global market demand reaching 3.53 billion by 2030 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.9% from 2024 to 2030 [6]. Market Performance - The new materials sector has seen a decline in the past week, with the synthetic biology index down 3.29%, semiconductor materials down 1.23%, electronic chemicals down 1.66%, and biodegradable plastics down 2.26%, while industrial gases increased by 0.13% [40]. - The overall market performance for the week (December 23-27, 2024) shows the CSI 300 index increased by 1.36%, and the Shanghai Composite index increased by 0.95% [27]. Price Tracking - The report provides a detailed price tracking of various chemical raw materials, including: - Biodegradable materials: PLA (Injection Grade) at 18,000 CNY/ton, PLA (Blown Film Grade) at 17,000 CNY/ton, PBS at 19,000 CNY/ton, and PBAT at 9,800 CNY/ton [1]. - Vitamins: Vitamin A at 137,500 CNY/ton (-14.60%), Vitamin E at 142,500 CNY/ton (-3.39%), Vitamin D3 at 265,000 CNY/ton (+0.95%) [1]. - Industrial gases: UPSSS grade hydrofluoric acid at 11,000 CNY/ton and EL grade hydrofluoric acid at 5,700 CNY/ton [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from the energy-saving and carbon reduction policies, particularly in the wind power sector [2]. - It also recommends monitoring companies involved in the solid-phase synthesis carrier market due to the anticipated growth driven by the new weight loss drug [6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the companies discussed [2][18]. Core Insights - The new stock market activity has increased, with December seeing a decline in the first-day gains and opening valuations of new stocks across major boards [5][32]. - The report highlights key new stocks that have been listed recently, including 佳驰科技 (Jiachi Technology) and 先锋精科 (Pioneer Precision) [5][59]. - The report indicates that the first-day opening valuations for new stocks have generally decreased, with the overall market showing signs of volatility [5][61]. Summary by Sections Section 1: New Stock Market Activity - In December, the first-day gains and opening valuations of new stocks on the main board decreased, with 17 stocks recording positive gains, accounting for 39.53% of the total [5][15]. - The report notes that the first-day opening valuation for the main board was 33.72 times earnings, a decrease from previous months [5][68]. Section 2: Key New Stocks - The report lists several key new stocks that have been recently issued, including 钧崴电子 (Junwei Electronics) and 思看科技 (Sikan Technology), which are expected to perform well in their respective markets [47][71]. - 钧崴电子 focuses on precision resistors and fuses, with a projected fundraising of 6.44 billion yuan [54][71]. - 思看科技 is a leading player in the industrial-grade 3D visual digitization market, serving numerous high-profile clients [75][78]. Section 3: Market Trends and Valuations - The report indicates that the TTM-PE (trailing twelve months price-to-earnings ratio) for new stocks on the 科创板 (Star Market) increased to 39.09 times in December, while the first-day gains decreased to 433.38% [61][68]. - The report also highlights that the market for 3D visual digitization products is expected to grow significantly, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 26.6% from 2022 to 2027 [56][78].