Core Insights - The report projects that China's economy is expected to maintain a reasonable growth rate of around 5% in 2026, supported by improved consumption, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing upgrades [6] - The textile and apparel sector is anticipated to see structural opportunities, particularly in textile manufacturing and home textiles, as the market shows signs of recovery [6][7] - The report highlights the performance of specific companies within the textile sector, recommending investments in leading manufacturers due to their competitive advantages and market positioning [7][8] Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,965.28, reflecting a slight increase of 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.49% [4] - The textile and apparel sector recorded a cumulative increase of 12.02% in 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.08 percentage points [7] Economic Outlook - The report indicates that the economic growth risks have generally decreased, with supportive policies expected to stabilize the real estate market and boost consumer confidence [6] - CPI is projected to improve moderately, driven by rising pork and service prices, while PPI is expected to narrow its decline and potentially recover by Q4 2026 [6] Sector Analysis - The textile manufacturing segment is under pressure due to tariff impacts but is expected to benefit from a recovery in overseas demand and inventory levels [7] - Specific companies such as Yuanyuan Group and Shenzhou International are highlighted for their lower exposure to U.S. markets and strong recovery potential [7][8] Consumer Behavior - Domestic consumer confidence is gradually recovering, with retail sales in various categories showing positive growth, particularly in online channels [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation in product offerings within the home textile sector, with companies like Luolai Life and Mercury Home Textiles showing promising growth in specific product categories [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on companies with strong operational performance and innovative product lines, particularly in women's apparel and home textiles [7][8] - It also highlights the potential for growth in the AI and smart manufacturing sectors, particularly for companies like Ruisheng Intelligent, which is expanding its capabilities in AI computing and robotics [10]

| 潘宁河 | | --- | | 执业登记编码：S0760523110001 | | 邮箱：panninghe@sxzq.com | | 林挺 | | 执业登记编码：S0760524100003 | | 邮箱：linting@sxzq.com | 其他专用机械 瑞晟智能（688215.SH） 增持-A(首次) 智能工厂装备领军者，算力机器人双轮驱动 2025 年 12 月 29 日 公司研究/公司分析 公司近一年市场表现 投资要点： | 市场数据：2025 年 | 12 月 | 29 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元/股）： | | | 68.05 | | 总股本（亿股）： | | | 0.62 | | 流通股本（亿股）： | | | 0.62 | | 流通市值（亿元）： | | | 42.48 | | 基础数据：2025 年 9 月 | 30 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元/股）： | | 7.95 | | 每股资本公积（元/股）： | | 4.40 | | 每股未分配利润（元/ | | 1.99 | | 股）： | | ...

Economic Growth Outlook - China's economy is expected to maintain a reasonable growth rate of around 5% in 2026, with overall economic growth risks decreasing[2] - The decline in real estate investment is anticipated to narrow, supported by proactive policies aimed at stabilizing the housing market[3] - Consumption, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing upgrades are expected to be the main drivers of growth, with these sectors projected to grow faster than in 2025[2] Inflation and Price Trends - CPI is expected to show moderate improvement, driven by rising pork and service prices, while PPI is projected to narrow its decline and potentially rebound by Q4 2026[3] - The overall price level recovery will be gradual, characterized by "moderate recovery and structural differentiation," contributing to further nominal economic growth[3] Policy Environment - The macroeconomic policy will continue to be "proactive and effective," emphasizing coordination and flexibility, with increased counter-cyclical adjustments[2] - Fiscal policy is expected to remain "more proactive," with a projected deficit rate of around 4% and a deficit scale of approximately 5.9 trillion yuan[61] - Monetary policy will maintain an "appropriately loose" stance, with expectations of a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio[67] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include policy underperformance, unstable consumer expectations, escalating US-China strategic tensions, and geopolitical conflicts[4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The textile and apparel sector in 2025 saw a cumulative increase of 12.02%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.08 percentage points, ranking eighteenth among thirty-one Shenwan primary industries [3][17] - The sub-sectors of textile manufacturing, apparel and home textiles, and accessories recorded cumulative increases of 9.65%, 11.31%, and 17.43% respectively [3][17] - The PE-TTM for the textile and apparel sector stands at 20.32 times, which is at the 76.86% percentile of the past five years [3][17] Group 2: Domestic Consumption - In 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 45.61 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [4][30] - The consumer confidence index improved from 86.4 at the end of 2024 to 89.4 in October 2025 [4][30] - Retail sales of textiles and apparel, cosmetics, gold and silver jewelry, and sports/entertainment products grew by 3.5%, 4.8%, 13.5%, and 16.4% respectively from January to November 2025 [4][30] Group 3: International Consumption - U.S. apparel sales showed a year-on-year increase of 5.34% as of October 2025, with inventory levels at a low since 2022 [4][34] - European retail sales indices have turned positive since 2024, maintaining steady low single-digit growth in 2025 [4][34] - Vietnam's textile and footwear exports reached 35.91 billion USD in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 6.7% [4][44] Group 4: Textile Manufacturing - The textile manufacturing sector faced revenue growth challenges in 2025, with a year-on-year revenue increase of only 4.3% and a decline in net profit by 5.6% [5][46] - The sector's performance was impacted by U.S.-China tariff pressures, leading to cautious ordering from brands [5][46] - Recommendations include focusing on leading manufacturers like Yuanyuan Group, Shenzhou International, and Huali Group, which have lower exposure to U.S. markets and strong recovery potential [5][67] Group 5: Apparel and Home Textiles - The apparel sector is experiencing a weak recovery, with a focus on consumer performance and innovation in home textiles [8][4] - Companies like Ge Li Si and Jiangnan Buyi are highlighted for their stable performance, with Ge Li Si showing a 40.2% increase in net profit in Q3 2025 [8][4] - The home textiles sector is driven by major products, with companies like Luolai Life and Mercury Home Textiles showing significant revenue growth [8][4]

Core Insights - The report highlights a price increase announced by a leading carbon fiber company, indicating a potential recovery in the industry's bottom line and overall market conditions [4][5] - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the label printing sector, particularly for Jiangtian Technology, which specializes in high-quality label printing services [6][7] Industry Summary Chemical Raw Materials - The new materials sector experienced a slight decline, with the new materials index down by 0.23%, although it outperformed the ChiNext index by 2.03% [4] - Key price movements in the amino acids and biodegradable materials were noted, with valine increasing by 4.98% to 13,700 CNY/ton, while other prices remained stable [4] Carbon Fiber Industry - The carbon fiber market is showing signs of recovery, with a significant increase in demand expected, particularly in wind power and aerospace applications. The actual consumption of carbon fiber in China is projected to reach 96,446 tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 71.89% [5] - Major companies like Toray and Jilin Chemical Fiber have announced price hikes for their carbon fiber products, indicating a strengthening market position for high-performance carbon fiber suppliers [5] Label Printing Sector - Jiangtian Technology is positioned as a leading service provider in the label printing industry, with a focus on non-dry adhesive labels used in various consumer sectors. The company has established stable partnerships with major brands like Unilever and Procter & Gamble [6] - The label printing market in China is expected to grow significantly, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 10.44% from 2023 to 2031, driven by rising disposable incomes and consumption upgrades [6][7] Solar Industry - The report notes stable pricing for polysilicon and an increase in silicon wafer prices, with the average price for 130um N-type silicon wafers rising by 5.9% to 1.25 CNY/piece [8] - Battery cell prices have also increased, with N-type battery cells seeing a 13.3% rise to 0.34 CNY/W, reflecting a tightening supply and increased production costs [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "B" rating for the new materials sector, indicating a stable outlook with potential for recovery in the carbon fiber industry [2]. Core Insights - The carbon fiber industry is experiencing a price increase, confirming a bottoming out of the market and a potential recovery in demand. High-end carbon fiber demand is expected to rise significantly, particularly in wind power and aerospace applications, with actual consumption in China projected to reach 96,446 tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 71.89% [5][7]. - The new materials sector index decreased by 0.23% recently, outperforming the ChiNext index by 2.03%. Key segments such as industrial gases and biodegradable plastics showed positive growth, while semiconductor materials faced a decline [2][19]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Market Performance - The new materials sector index fell by 0.23%, while the ChiNext index dropped by 2.03%. Over the past five trading days, the synthetic biology index rose by 1.76%, industrial gases increased by 3.86%, and battery chemicals decreased by 2.87% [2][19]. 2. Price Tracking - Key prices include: - Valine: 13,700 CNY/ton (+4.98%) - Arginine: 20,950 CNY/ton (unchanged) - Methionine: 17,850 CNY/ton (-0.56%) - PLA (injection grade): 17,800 CNY/ton (unchanged) [3]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the carbon fiber sector, such as Jilin Chemical Fiber, Zhongfu Shenying, Zhongjian Technology, and Guangwei Composites, as they are expected to benefit from the recovery in high-end carbon fiber demand [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for Jiangtian Technology, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6-12 months [50]. Core Insights - Jiangtian Technology is a leading service provider in the label printing sector, focusing on the research, production, and sales of label printing products, primarily self-adhesive labels made from film and paper, widely used in daily consumer goods [3][12]. - The Chinese label printing market is the largest in Asia, with significant growth potential driven by consumption upgrades and rising disposable income. The market size is expected to grow from 214.34 billion yuan in 2019 to 318.81 billion yuan by 2031, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.44% [4][16]. - Jiangtian Technology has established stable partnerships with renowned brands such as Unilever, Procter & Gamble, and Shell, enhancing its market sensitivity and driving continuous process upgrades [5][21]. Summary by Sections Market Data - The total share capital of Jiangtian Technology is 0.53 billion shares [1]. Financial Data - The company’s revenue for 2022-2024 is projected to grow from 384.13 million yuan to 538.15 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.68%, 32.17%, and 6.00% respectively [6][29]. - The net profit for the same period is expected to increase from 74.45 million yuan to 101.81 million yuan, with growth rates of 21.50%, 29.56%, and 5.55% [6][29]. - The company’s 2024 price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is estimated at 13.76, which is at a discount compared to comparable companies [7][46]. Business Model and Competitive Advantage - Jiangtian Technology leverages five core advantages: premium customer resources, advanced technology, comprehensive solutions, rapid scalable production, and multi-regional operations, positioning it as a leader in the industry [5][21]. - The company has reduced its production loss rate from 16% to below 10% and has optimized its production processes significantly [5][21]. Investment Projects - The company plans to use the raised funds for the construction of an intelligent production line for packaging printing products and a technology research and development center, with total investments of 53,072.19 million yuan [32][37]. Valuation Analysis - Jiangtian Technology's gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 29.97%, which is above the industry average, indicating strong profitability compared to its peers [46][43]. - The report highlights that Jiangtian Technology's business model is more focused on label printing compared to competitors, which diversifies into other packaging areas [46][39].

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant developments in the domestic GPU market, with major players like Moer Technology and Muxi Co. making strides in the capital market, indicating a growing focus on domestic computing power in 2026 [8][9] - The demand for data center optical fibers is expected to surge, with early signs of price increases in the market, driven by the growing need for high-density connections in data centers [11] Industry Commentary - **GPU Market Developments**: - Moer Technology and Muxi Co. have recently entered the STAR Market, while Biran Technology and Tensu Zhixin have passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing, marking a pivotal moment for domestic GPGPU players [8] - Moer Technology's recent developer conference showcased its new architecture "Huagang," which promises significant performance improvements, including a 50% increase in density and a tenfold increase in efficiency [8] - Muxi Co. achieved a market capitalization exceeding 280 billion in its first week on the STAR Market, positioning itself as a strong competitor in the domestic GPGPU sector [8] - Biran Technology and Tensu Zhixin are also gaining traction, with Biran's BR106 series and Tensu's GPU products catering to a wide range of clients across various industries [8] - **Optical Fiber Market Trends**: - The report notes a 15% price increase in the common cable and fiber market, with major manufacturers indicating a robust demand for data center optical fibers [11] - By 2025, data center optical fiber demand is projected to account for 5% of global demand, with North America exceeding 14% [11] - The report anticipates that the global demand for data center optical fibers will surpass 50 million core kilometers by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26% for AI application fibers [11] - The increasing power density of cabinets and the doubling of GPU bandwidth are expected to drive the demand for high-density MPO optical fibers [11] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in upstream components such as copper connections, switching chips, network card chips, and interface IPs, particularly in the context of the rapid development of supernode servers [9] - Key companies to watch in the domestic supernode sector include Unisplendour, ZTE, Inspur, and others, while the commercial aerospace sector features companies like Shanghai Hanxun and Yifeng Communication [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the communication industry [1]. Core Insights - The domestic GPGPU sector is expected to be a focal point in the capital market in 2026, with companies like Moer Thread and Muxi Co. recently entering the market, and Biran Technology and Tian Shu Zhixin passing the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing [5][17]. - The demand for data center optical fibers is anticipated to surge, with early signs of price increases in the market, as domestic and international manufacturers report a 15% price rise in common cable fibers [10][20]. - The report highlights the rapid development of supernode servers as a key beneficiary segment for domestic GPUs, suggesting investment opportunities in upstream components such as copper connections and network interface chips [9][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Moer Thread held its first developer conference, unveiling a new architecture and several products, including the "Huagang" architecture, which supports FP4 to FP64 precision calculations, with a 50% density increase and a 10-fold efficiency improvement [6][17]. - Muxi Co. achieved a market capitalization exceeding 280 billion after its debut on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, positioning itself as a strong competitor in the domestic GPGPU market [7][18]. - Biran Technology has passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing, with its BR100 series achieving peak performance at the PFLOPS level, and it has secured sales agreements valued at 1.24 billion [8][19]. - Tian Shu Zhixin has a broad customer base across various sectors, with GPU shipments reaching 15,700 units in the first half of 2025 and revenues of 324 million [8][19]. Market Overview - The overall market saw a slight decline during the week of December 15-19, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.03% while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.89% and 2.26%, respectively [12][22]. - The top-performing sectors included liquid cooling, optical cables, and satellite communications, with weekly gains of 15.85%, 11.88%, and 10.73% [12][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the following sectors: - Domestic supernodes: Unisplendour, ZTE, Inspur, Huaqin Technology, Huafeng Technology, Xinke Materials, Shengke Communication, and Heshun Petroleum [22]. - Commercial aerospace: Shanghai Hanxun, Xinke Mobile, Fenghuo Communication, Mengsheng Electronics, Haige Communication, and Qian Zhao Optoelectronics [22]. - Optical fibers and cables: Zhongtian Technology, Hengtong Optic-Electric, Changfei Fiber, Yongding Co., Taichen Optoelectronics, Shijia Photonics, and Changxin Bochuang [22].

Core Insights - The report highlights the promising potential of GPRC5D/BCMA/CD3 tri-antibody therapy for relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM), showcasing an overall response rate (ORR) of 100% and a 12-month progression-free survival (PFS) rate of 96.3% [4]. Market Trends - The report notes that multiple myeloma (MM) is the second most common hematological malignancy, with over 300,000 new cases globally each year. Most MM cases progress to RRMM, indicating a significant unmet medical need after standard treatments fail [4]. Industry Commentary - GPRC5D and BCMA are highly expressed on the surface of malignant plasma cells, making them attractive targets for immunotherapy in MM. The JNJ-79635322 tri-antibody is the first to enter Phase III clinical trials for RRMM, targeting BCMA, GPRC5D, and CD3 to precisely modulate immune signaling [4]. - In early clinical trials, JNJ-79635322 demonstrated superior survival benefits, with a 12-month PFS rate of 96.3% in patients who had not previously received BCMA/GPRC5D therapy. The overall response rate (ORR) for the entire population was 73% [4]. - IBI3003, another candidate, showed an ORR of 83.3% in patients who had undergone at least four prior lines of treatment, indicating its efficacy in heavily pre-treated RRMM patients [4]. Clinical Data - JNJ-79635322 exhibited an ORR of 100% in a subgroup of patients who had not received prior BCMA/GPRC5D therapy, with a median follow-up of 15 months. Adverse events included infections (80.6%) and cytokine release syndrome (CRS) [4]. - IBI3003 demonstrated an ORR of 77.8% in patients previously treated with BCMA and/or GPRC5D therapies, with a good safety profile [4].