胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 煤炭 煤炭行业信用分析报告 领先大市-A(维持) 煤炭行业信用风险观察与展望 2025 年 12 月 5 日 行业研究/行业分析 煤炭板块近一年市场表现 资料来源：常闻 【山证煤炭】煤炭进口数据拆解：25 年 10 月进口环比收缩 2025.12.1 中长期合同点评：符合预期，港口基准 价维持不变 2025.11.20 体利润、内部亏损面、现金流等有所冲击，"信用一体"或再次走向"信用 分化"。 投资要点： 首选股票 评级 "反内卷"扭转预期？：2025 年反内卷带动政策转向，煤炭价格反弹， 尽管价格上涨超预期，信用市场对反内卷并不敏感。主要因为现阶段煤炭信 用对于煤价变化相对钝化，而且前期跌价时煤炭相关债项并未出现显著风险 释放。从核心宏观目标来说，反内卷主要是为了扭转通缩趋势，因此传导链 条为"通缩→反内卷→盈利提升→通胀"，而通胀水平提升需要各环节维持 合理利润。因此煤炭反内卷政策并非供应单向收缩，而是均衡统筹考虑。对 比供给侧改革和山西查三超，反内卷和前两者底层逻辑不同，供给侧改革是 债务驱动，山西查三超是安全驱动， ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant developments in the commercial aerospace sector, indicating a potential turning point for large-scale growth with the upcoming launch of China's first reusable rocket, Zhuque-3, expected in early December 2025 [6][8] - The solar energy industry is facing challenges, with a notable decline in new installations and fluctuating export figures for solar components and inverters, reflecting a complex market environment [7][9] Industry Commentary: Communication - The commercial aerospace sector is poised for growth with the launch of Zhuque-3, a reusable rocket designed for multiple missions, which could enhance China's capabilities in low Earth orbit satellite internet construction [6] - The establishment of a dedicated regulatory body for commercial aerospace in China aims to ensure safety while unlocking the industry's potential, with over 600 companies currently operating in this space [8] Industry Commentary: Solar Energy - In October 2025, China's new solar installations dropped to 12.6 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 38.3%, although there was a month-on-month increase of 30.4% [9] - Cumulative solar installations from January to October 2025 reached 252.87 GW, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39.5% [9] - The export value of solar components in October was 16.08 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.9% but a month-on-month decline of 19.5% [9][10] Company Commentary: Yongtai Energy - Yongtai Energy's Haizetang coal mine project is ahead of schedule, with significant progress reported in construction and operational readiness, expected to positively impact the company's performance [11][13] - The company has announced a share repurchase plan, aiming to enhance shareholder value and confidence, with a budget of 30 million to 50 million yuan for the buyback [13][14] - Forecasted net profits for Yongtai Energy are projected to be 378 million yuan, 757 million yuan, and 1.66 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the commercial aerospace industry, indicating expected growth exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% [1][37]. Core Insights - The first reusable rocket in China, the Zhuque-3, is expected to launch in early December, marking a significant milestone in commercial aerospace development. This rocket is designed for over 20 reuses and aims to support diverse commercial launch scenarios [1][11]. - The establishment of the Commercial Aerospace Administration by the National Space Administration is anticipated to unlock the potential of China's commercial aerospace industry, which currently has over 600 companies. This regulatory body will focus on ensuring safety while promoting industry growth [5][15]. - The Star Map Control has announced the "Star Eye" space perception constellation plan, which aims to enhance satellite collision avoidance through monitoring and data analysis. The first test satellites are scheduled for launch in the first half of 2026 [4][13]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The Zhuque-3 rocket, developed by Blue Arrow Aerospace, is a large liquid oxygen-methane rocket with a stainless steel structure, designed for high-frequency, low-cost launches. Its landing area is established near the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center [1][11]. - The Long March 12 rocket has also reached the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center for pre-launch testing, with multiple key tests completed, including a vertical takeoff and landing test scheduled for June 2024 [3][12]. Market Overview - The overall market saw an increase during the week of November 24-28, 2025, with the Shenwan Communication Index rising by 8.70%. The top-performing sectors included optical cables and the Internet of Things [6][16]. - Notable individual stock performances included Long光华芯 and 博创科技, with increases of 59.33% and 20.84%, respectively [6][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies within the Google Chain, such as 光库科技 and 中际旭创, as well as those in the domestic super node sector like 寒武纪 and 中兴通讯. Additionally, companies in the commercial aerospace sector, including 航天动力 and 通宇通讯, are highlighted for potential investment [5][16].

| 市场数据：2025 年 12 | | 月 3 | 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元/股）： | | | | 1.65 | | 年内最高/最低（元/ | | | 2.14/1.25 | | | 股）： | | | | | | 流通 股/总股本（亿 A | | | | 218.18/218.18 | | 股）： | | | | | | 流通 A | 股市值（亿元）： | | | 359.99 | | 总市值（亿元）： | | | | 359.99 | 基础数据：2025 年 9 月 30 日 | 基本每股收益(元/股)： | 0.01 | | --- | --- | | 摊薄每股收益(元/股)： | 0.01 | | 每股净资产(元/股)： | 2.39 | | 净资产收益率(%)： | 0.75 | | 资料来源：常闻 | | 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 炼焦煤 永泰能源（600157.SH） 增持-A(维持) 海则滩煤矿工程进度提前，新回购案有望助推公司价值回归 2025 年 12 月 4 日 公司研究/公司快报 投资要点 事件 1：近日公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the solar energy sector, with specific ratings of "Buy-A" and "Buy-B" assigned to various stocks [1]. Core Insights - In October 2025, the domestic solar photovoltaic (PV) new installed capacity decreased by 38.3% year-on-year, while the cumulative installed capacity from January to October increased by 39.5% year-on-year [2][12]. - The export value of solar modules in October was 16.08 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.9% but a month-on-month decrease of 19.5% [2][15]. - The inverter export value in October was 4.82 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4% but a month-on-month decline of 5.2% [3][25]. - Solar power generation in October increased by 5.9% year-on-year, accounting for 4.77% of the total national power generation [4][38]. Summary by Sections Domestic Solar New Installed Capacity - In October 2025, the new installed capacity was 12.6 GW, down 38.3% year-on-year but up 30.4% month-on-month. The cumulative installed capacity from January to October reached 252.87 GW [2][12]. Export Data - Solar module exports in October totaled 16.08 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 19.5%. Cumulative exports from January to October were 168.26 billion yuan, down 11.8% year-on-year [2][15]. - Inverter exports in October were valued at 4.82 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 5.2%. Cumulative inverter exports from January to October reached 53.31 billion yuan, up 7.2% year-on-year [3][25]. Solar Power Generation - The solar power generation in October was 39.37 billion kWh, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.9% and a slight decrease in its share of total power generation [4][38]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Aishuo Co., Longi Green Energy, and Daqian Energy for new technology and supply-side directions. It also highlights companies like Haibo Sichuang and Sunshine Power for energy storage, and suggests attention to various other companies in the solar sector [4][42].

Core Insights - The report highlights the continuous improvement of regulatory measures in the financial market, which is expected to support the development of the capital market and enhance its quality [6] - The initiation of commercial real estate REITs is noted as a significant step towards diversifying capital market tools and supporting a new model of real estate development [6] - The company, Sifang Optoelectronics, reported a revenue of 722 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.56% [7] Company Analysis - Sifang Optoelectronics achieved a revenue of 214 million yuan in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 6.75%, and a net profit of 23 million yuan, up 14.39% year-on-year [7] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2025 was 42.30%, showing a slight increase compared to the previous year, while the net profit margin was 11.02% [7] - The cold refrigerant leak monitoring sensors have been successfully developed and are expected to become a significant growth driver for the company, contributing over 200 million yuan in incremental revenue [7] - The company is expanding its product offerings in the semiconductor field, with its gas instruments achieving significant orders from major domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers [7] - Sifang Optoelectronics has established subsidiaries in the US and South Korea, with overseas revenue reaching 151 million yuan, accounting for nearly 30% of total revenue [7] Industry Commentary - The report notes a decline in midstream prices within the photovoltaic industry, with specific price points for various components remaining stable or decreasing [10][12] - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape in the sensor market, highlighting the need for continuous innovation to maintain market share [11] - The photovoltaic glass prices have decreased, indicating a potential impact on the overall supply chain dynamics within the solar energy sector [14]

相关报告： 【山证非银行金融】券商并购重组再获 新进展，关注板块投资价值-【山证非银】 行 业 周 报 （ 20251117-20251121 ） 2025.11.26 【山证非银行金融】提升资本市场内在 稳定性，券商基本面持续向好-【山证非 银】行业周报（20251110-20251114）： 2025.11.18 分析师： 彭皓辰 执业登记编码：S0760525060001 邮箱：penghaochen@sxzq.com 刘丽 执业登记编码：S0760511050001 电话：0351--8686985 邮箱：liuli2@sxzq.com 孙田田 执业登记编码：S0760518030001 电话：0351-8686900 2025 年 12 月 3 日 行业研究/行业周报 非银行金融行业近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻 非银行金融 行业周报（20251124-20251130） 领先大市-A(维持)) 监管持续完善，商业不动产 REITs 启动 投资要点 监管持续完善。中国证监会 11 月 28 日宣布，为进一步规范证 券期货市场监督管理措施的实施程序，研究起草了《证券期货市场 监督管理措施实施办法（征求 ...

Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,897.71, down 0.42%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13,056.70, down 0.68% [4]. Industry Commentary: Chemical Raw Materials - The new materials sector saw an increase of 3.23%, although it underperformed compared to the ChiNext Index by 1.31%. The synthetic biology index fell by 1.80%, while electronic chemicals rose by 0.45% [6]. - Key price tracking for amino acids showed valine at 12,500 CNY/ton (-0.40%), arginine at 21,400 CNY/ton (unchanged), and tryptophan at 30,500 CNY/ton (-3.17%) [6]. - The IPO guidance for Yushu Technology has been completed, which is expected to accelerate the development of the humanoid robot industry. The company is on the verge of becoming the first humanoid robot stock in A-shares, potentially leading to a market size of 10 trillion CNY for humanoid robots in China [6][7]. Industry Commentary: Electric Equipment and New Energy - The launch of the Lingxin platform by Zhiyuan Robotics allows users to customize robot interactions easily, marking a significant innovation in the industry [9]. - UBTECH's total order amount for humanoid robots in 2025 has reached 1.3 billion CNY, indicating strong market demand [9]. - The National Development and Reform Commission is addressing issues of price disorder in the market, which could impact competition and pricing strategies [9]. - Recent pricing data shows that polysilicon prices remain stable, with dense material averaging 52.0 CNY/kg and granular silicon at 50.0 CNY/kg [9][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in humanoid robots, particularly those producing core components like electronic skin and dexterous hands. Notable companies include Hanwei Technology and Fule New Materials [6][7]. - In the electric equipment and new energy sector, companies such as Aishuo Co., Longi Green Energy, and Daqo New Energy are highlighted for their potential in new technology and supply-side strategies [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing a growth phase with significant revenue and profit increases, driven by new product launches and market expansion [4][11] - The company has successfully developed a range of refrigerant leak detection sensors, which are expected to become a continuous growth driver [6] - The semiconductor gas instruments sector presents substantial potential for domestic substitution, with the company already securing orders from major domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers [7] - The international market expansion is showing initial success, with overseas revenue increasing significantly [10] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 722 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.56%, and a net profit of 107 million yuan, up 74.20% [4] - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 214 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.75%, and a net profit of 23 million yuan, up 14.39% [5] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 42.30%, with a net profit margin of 11.02% [5] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.098 billion yuan, 1.428 billion yuan, and 1.880 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 25.8%, 30.0%, and 31.7% respectively [11] - Net profit projections for the same period are 157 million yuan, 221 million yuan, and 325 million yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 39.2%, 41.0%, and 46.8% [11] Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its global footprint by establishing subsidiaries in the US and South Korea, contributing to nearly 30% of revenue from overseas markets [10] - The company is focusing on cost control and has seen improvements in expense management, which is expected to stabilize as sales scale up [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Leading Market-B" rating for the new materials sector [2]. Core Insights - The new materials sector index increased by 3.23%, underperforming the ChiNext index by 1.31% over the past week [2]. - The demand for energy storage is surging, particularly benefiting the materials related to humanoid robots, as the industry transitions from a research phase to a scaling phase [5]. - The report highlights the expected domestic demand for humanoid robots to exceed 100 million units, with a market size potentially reaching 10 trillion yuan [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The new materials sector saw a mixed performance with the synthetic biology index down by 1.80%, semiconductor materials down by 0.71%, electronic chemicals up by 0.45%, biodegradable plastics down by 1.26%, industrial gases up by 0.86%, and battery chemicals down by 4.43% [2][18]. - The overall market performance for the week (November 24-28, 2025) showed the CSI 300 index rising by 1.64% and the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.4% [14]. 2. Price Tracking - Amino acids prices showed slight declines: valine at 12,500 yuan/ton (-0.40%), tryptophan at 30,500 yuan/ton (-3.17%), and methionine at 18,900 yuan/ton (-2.83%) [3]. - Prices for biodegradable materials remained stable, with PLA (injection grade) at 17,800 yuan/ton and PBS at 17,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core components for humanoid robots, such as electronic skin and dexterous hand transmission devices, which are expected to benefit from the industry's growth [5]. - Specific stocks to watch include Hanwei Technology, Fule New Materials, and Jinghua New Materials, which are involved in electronic skin technology [5]. 4. Individual Stock Performance - In the new materials sector, 73.03% of stocks achieved positive returns, with notable performers including Yishitong (25.54%) and Tianyue Advanced (15.12%) [24]. - The report notes significant net inflows for stocks like Placo New Materials (319 million yuan) and Anji Technology (253 million yuan) [24].