宏观 锚定高质量发展，深化金融改革开放 ——2025 陆家嘴论坛开幕式主题演讲点评 2025 年 6 月 19 日 宏观研究/事件点评 投资要点： 事件：2025 陆家嘴论坛 6 月 18 日召开，会议主题为"全球经济变局中 的金融开放合作与高质量发展"。开幕式上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜、金 融监管总局局长李云泽、中国证监会主席吴清、国家外汇局局长朱鹤新出席 会议并发表主题演讲。 中国人民银行行长潘功胜的演讲题目是《关于全球金融治理的若干思 考》，强调央行将积极参与完善全球金融治理、不断做好评估和完善货币政 策。今年以来，在美国长期债务问题以及"美国例外论"动摇的情况下，美 元持续走弱，以美元主导的国际货币体系面临前所未有的挑战。报告聚焦国 际货币体系、跨境支付体系、全球金融稳定体系、国际金融组织治理四个问 题，探讨了我国在完善全球金融治理中所坚持的方向。 报告指出，国际主导货币具有全球公共品的属性，由一国主权货币来承 担，与生俱来就存在一些内在的不稳定问题，主要源于主权货币国会更多考 虑自身利益，以及主权货币国的财政和金融监管问题、内部经济结构性矛盾 的不断累积，会以金融风险的形式向全球溢出。未来，国际货币 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating a strong potential for price appreciation in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit in recent quarters, particularly in the automotive and semiconductor sectors [4][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand in the new energy vehicle and semiconductor markets, with projections for continued revenue growth in the coming years [8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported revenue of 585 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, and a net profit of 86 million yuan, up 29.04% [4]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 148 million yuan, reflecting a 22.35% year-on-year growth, and a staggering net profit increase of 2152.47% [4]. - The company’s gross margin improved significantly, reaching 64.91% in Q1 2025, driven by a favorable product mix [4]. Business Segment Analysis - The automotive wire harness connector business is experiencing strong growth, with revenue from ultrasonic equipment for wire harnesses reaching 81.34 million yuan in 2024, a 352.37% increase [5]. - The semiconductor business is also poised for rapid growth, with revenue from ultrasonic equipment reaching 46.93 million yuan in 2024, a 195.66% increase, benefiting from domestic substitution trends [5]. - The accessories and consumables segment saw a revenue increase of 70.45% in 2024, with a gross margin improvement to 75.93% [6]. Future Projections - The company is expected to see continued growth in net profit, with projections of 133 million yuan in 2025, 203 million yuan in 2026, and 289 million yuan in 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 54.9%, 52.9%, and 42.2% respectively [10][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase to 1.15 yuan in 2025, 1.76 yuan in 2026, and 2.50 yuan in 2027 [10][12].

2025 年 6 月 19 日 星期四 市场走势 【今日要点】 【行业评论】【山证电新】20250618 光伏产业链价格跟踪 研究早观点 资料来源：最闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,388.81 | 0.04 | | 深证成指 | | 10,175.59 | 0.24 | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,874.97 | 0.12 | | 中小板指 | | 6,393.77 | 0.63 | | 创业板指 | | 2,054.73 | 0.23 | | 科创 50 | | 968.18 | 0.53 | 资料来源：最闻 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 研究早观点 电池片 价格结构性下降： 182-183.75mm N 型电池片均价为 0.240 元/W（转换效率 25.0%+），较上周 下降 2.0%；182*210mm ...

研究早观点 2025 年 6 月 18 日 星期三 市场走势 资料来源：最闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3,387.40 | -0.04 | | 深证成指 | 10,151.43 | -0.12 | | 沪深 300 | 3,870.38 | -0.09 | | 中小板指 | 6,353.78 | -0.13 | | 创业板指 | 2,049.94 | -0.36 | | 科创 50 | 963.08 | -0.80 | 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 【宏观策略】海外市场周观察（20250609~20250615） 【行业评论】化学原料：新材料周报（250609-0613）-LABUBU 爆火催生 3D 打印新需求，核心耗材 PLA 迎来发展新机 【行业评论】电力设备及新能源：行业周报（20250609-20250615）-两部门 提出开展智能养老服务机器人应用试点，BC 组件溢价显著 【行业评论】基础化工：行业周报（20250609-0615）-钾肥大合同价 ...

量化投资框架 基于 JumpModel 和 XGBoost 的资产配置框架 2025 年 6 月 17 日 主题报告 黎鹏 执业登记编码：S0760523020001 邮箱：lipeng@sxzq.com 研究助理： 崔豪轩 邮箱：cuihaoxuan@sxzq.com 投资要点： 资产市场状态识别 山证金工团队 分析师： 采用 Jump Model 来识别市场状态。该模型通过对资产收益率的变化进 行分解，区分出平稳变化与跳跃变化，以捕捉市场的结构性变化。其优势在 于能够更精确地识别市场的非连续性变化，从而提供比传统波动率模型更清 晰的市场状态划分。 市场状态预测 使用 XGBoost 作为核心预测模型。XGBoost 通过集成学习方法提高预 测精度，并能够处理高维度、多特征的数据，使其在市场状态预测中表现优 异。模型使用默认参数进行设置，以避免参数交互作用可能导致的一系列问 题。 投资组合构建 基于预测的市场状态信号，采用均值-方差优化进行投资组合调整。在 市场状态发生变化时，该方法能够动态调整资产配置，优化收益与风险的平 衡。策略在使用 7 种资产进行回溯测试中取得 6.37%的年化收益率，同时保 持 0 ...

煤炭行业近一年市场表现 煤炭 煤炭月度供需数据点评 同步大市-A(维持) 2025 年 6 月 17 日 行业研究/行业快报 资料来源：最闻 【山证煤炭】情绪有所好转，二级市场 表 现 回 升 - 【 山 证 煤 炭 】 行 业 周 报 （20250519-20250525）： 2025.5.26 5 月： 供给：1-5 月原煤供给小增。2025 年 1-5 月，原煤累计产量实现 19.85 亿吨，同比增 6.0%，同比增速边际下滑。5 月当月实现 4.03 亿吨，同比增 4.2%。 需求：1-5 月终端需求受制造业和基建支撑，非电走势强于电力。25 年 1-5 月固定资产投资同比增 3.7%，其中制造业投资增 8.5%、基建投资增 5.6%、 房地产投资降 10.7%。25 年 1-5 月火电累计增速实现-3.1%，；焦炭累计增速 实现 3.3%；生铁累计增速实现-0.1%；水泥累计增速实现-4.0%。 4 月进口连续负增 2025.5.26 分析师： 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 刘贵军 执业登记编码：S0760519110001 邮箱：liugui ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the basic chemical industry [1][2]. Core Viewpoints - The 2025 China potash fertilizer sea freight import contract has been finalized at a price of $346 per ton CFR, which is an increase of $73 per ton compared to last year's price of $273 per ton CFR. This price is $3 per ton lower than the new contract price signed by India. The contract signing was in line with market expectations and is expected to enhance supply chain security for potash fertilizer, supporting agricultural stability and national food security [4][12][23]. - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a surge in oil prices, which may affect the supply of certain chemical products imported from Iran. The report suggests monitoring products with significant import volumes from Iran and Israel, such as polyethylene, methanol, and potassium chloride [5][13][23]. Summary by Sections Chemical Market - The report highlights the completion of the potash fertilizer import contract and the impact of the Israel-Iran conflict on oil prices. The contract price for potash fertilizer is set at $346 per ton CFR, reflecting a significant increase from the previous year [4][12]. - The report also provides data on China's chemical imports from Iran and Israel, indicating that polyethylene and methanol are among the top imported products from Iran, while potassium chloride is significant from Israel [5][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on: 1. Sinochem Fertilizer: Potential benefits from policy dividends related to state reserve management. 2. Yara International: Expected to benefit from high prices due to low-cost resources and high certainty in expansion. 3. Products with significant import volumes from Iran and Israel, including polyethylene, methanol, sulfur, potassium chloride, and bromine [6][23]. Market Performance - The report includes performance metrics for various chemical sectors, noting that textile chemical products, compound fertilizers, and inorganic salts have shown the highest weekly increases, while viscose and other chemical raw materials have seen declines [18][19]. - Key companies in the basic chemical sector, such as Sinochem Fertilizer and China Petroleum, have also shown positive market performance, with notable weekly increases [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "A" rating for the home appliance industry, indicating expected performance to lead the market [2][42]. Core Viewpoints - The home appliance sector is experiencing a mixed performance with policy stimuli and recovering sales, particularly in the retail space [4]. - The export growth of home appliances has shifted from explosive replenishment to stable demand support, with a notable decline in May's export volume [20]. - The imposition of a 50% import tariff by the U.S. on various steel home appliances is expected to significantly impact exports, particularly for refrigerators and washing machines [16][12]. Summary by Sections White Goods Production - Production growth rates for household air conditioners and refrigerators are gradually slowing, while washing machine production remains stable. In June, air conditioner production is projected at 20.5 million units, with growth rates of 11.5%, 6.3%, and 2.7% for June to August. Refrigerator production is expected at 7.9 million units, with growth rates of 3.6%, -0.7%, and -5.5% [12][15]. - Domestic air conditioner production is experiencing significant growth, while external sales are declining due to high inventory levels and tariff adjustments [12][15]. Home Appliance Exports - In May, the export volume of home appliances turned negative, with a year-on-year decline of 8.87% in export value, totaling $8.21 billion, and a 5.93% drop in export volume, amounting to 386 million units [20]. - The industry is transitioning to a "new normal" growth rate, focusing on emerging markets and product upgrades amid geopolitical risks [20]. Raw Materials - Prices for raw materials, such as rebar, are stable, with a decrease in rebar prices by 4.14% to 2961 yuan per ton, indicating minimal cost pressure on the home appliance industry [26]. Shipping Costs - Shipping costs have surged due to tight capacity across multiple routes, with the comprehensive index for Chinese export container freight rising by 7.63% to 1243.05 [31]. - The increase in shipping costs is attributed to geopolitical factors and seasonal demand, impacting the overall cost structure for large goods like home appliances [31]. Investment Recommendations - The report outlines four main investment strategies: 1. **Configuration Type**: Focus on white goods with high performance and limited valuation downside, recommending stocks like Midea Group and Gree Electric [37]. 2. **Turning Point Type**: Anticipating a recovery in small appliances and kitchen appliances due to low baselines and stimulus policies, with stocks like XGIMI Technology and Bear Electric [37]. 3. **Prosperity Type**: Emphasizing the competitive advantage of domestic black goods brands amid technological upgrades, recommending stocks like Hisense Visual and TCL Electronics [37]. 4. **Theme Type**: Highlighting opportunities in the humanoid robot supply chain, suggesting stocks like Sanhua Intelligent Control and Dechang Technology [37].

Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed slight increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,388.73, up 0.35% [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,163.55, up 0.41%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.66% to 2,057.32 [4] New Stock Market Activity - The new stock market activity has decreased, with 24 stocks recording positive gains, representing 50% of new listings in the past six months, down from 66.67% [6] - Notable new listings include Ying Shi Innovation on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and Haiyang Technology on the main board, with significant fluctuations in their stock prices [6] Agricultural Sector Insights - The agricultural sector saw a 1.62% increase in the week of June 9-15, with pig farming, animal health, and poultry feed showing strong performance [9] - Pig prices have generally decreased, with average prices in key provinces showing slight declines, while the average pork price fell by 0.98% to 20.26 yuan/kg [9] - The feed industry is expected to recover as raw material prices stabilize, with Hai Da Group identified as a promising investment opportunity [9][10] Non-Bank Financial Sector Developments - The non-bank financial sector is undergoing regulatory changes, with new rules for brokerages and futures markets being introduced [11][14] - The China Securities Association has revised evaluation methods for securities firms, emphasizing support for green development and innovation [13] Textile and Apparel Sector Performance - The textile and apparel sector saw a 6.4% year-on-year increase in retail sales in May, with significant growth in sports and children's clothing [22][26] - The SW textile and apparel index outperformed the market, with specific segments like jewelry and sports apparel showing strong sales growth [23][29] Company-Specific Analysis: Huazhong CNC - Huazhong CNC is positioned as a leader in high-end CNC systems, with a focus on five-axis systems and a strong emphasis on domestic control [28][30] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovering market, with projections indicating a 17% growth in the CNC system market by 2025 [30] - Huazhong CNC's profitability is anticipated to improve, with net profits expected to grow significantly over the next few years [30][31]

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the investment rating to "Accumulate-A" [8] Core Views - The company is a pioneer in China's CNC technology industry and a leader in domestic CNC systems, focusing on high-end CNC system industrialization development [3][16] - The CNC system market is expected to return to high growth, with a projected market size of 15.8 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17% [4][46] - The company has achieved a historical high in gross margin for CNC systems and machine tools, exceeding 41% in 2024, benefiting from high-end product structure [31] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company adheres to a "one core and three armies" development strategy, focusing on high-end CNC system industrialization [3][17] - It has a strong background in technology, originating from Huazhong University of Science and Technology, with over 30 years of technical accumulation [3][16] Market Dynamics - The CNC system market is expected to grow significantly due to policy support and recovering downstream demand, with a projected market size of 15.8 billion yuan in 2025 [4][46] - The demand for high-end CNC systems is urgent, with significant room for domestic substitution, especially in aerospace and new energy vehicles [4][54] Financial Performance - The company forecasts net profits of 14 million yuan, 36 million yuan, and 64 million yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 125%, 164%, and 79% respectively [8] - The gross margin for CNC systems and machine tools reached 41.47% in 2024, an increase of 2.82 percentage points year-on-year [31] Product Development - The company has developed the Huazhong 8 high-end CNC system, achieving international advanced levels and facilitating import substitution [5][65] - The company is focusing on expanding its product structure and enhancing the proportion of high-performance and heavy-load products in its industrial robot business [5][31] Industry Outlook - The five-axis CNC system market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16.6% from 2021 to 2027, outpacing the global market growth rate [4][55] - The domestic five-axis CNC system market is currently under 10% market share, indicating substantial growth potential in the context of increasing demand for high-end manufacturing [64]