Group 1 - The new stock market activity has declined, with the first-day gains and opening valuations of new stocks in May decreasing across the main boards [2][12][31] - In the past week, there was only one new stock listed on the market, and 10 stocks recorded positive gains, accounting for 20.83% of the total, down from 26.53% [2][12] - The Science and Technology Innovation Board had no new listings last week, while the ChiNext Board also saw no new stocks listed [2][22] Group 2 - The first-day gain of the newly listed stock on the main board, Guqi Textile Materials, was 148.34%, with an opening valuation of 34.86 times [2][29] - The weekly gain of Zhongli Co., Ltd. exceeded 20%, while Guqi Textile Materials recorded a weekly decline of over 10% [2][29] - The first-day opening valuation for new stocks on the main board in May was 39.90 times, down from 42.27 times in April [31] Group 3 - The first-day gain of new stocks on the ChiNext Board in May was 131.03%, a decrease from 230.33% in April, with an opening valuation of 43.44 times [22][31] - The first-day gain of new stocks on the Science and Technology Innovation Board in May was 115.20%, down from 241.41% in March, with an opening valuation of 50.90 times [18][31] Group 4 - The report highlights key new stocks that have recently been listed, including Shengke Nano, Xidian Co., and Hongjing Optoelectronics, with significant revenue and profit projections for 2024 [50][51] - The report also identifies new stocks awaiting listing, such as Yingshi Innovation, which has a projected revenue growth of over 53% in the coming years [45][46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform-A" for the defense and aerospace industry, specifically highlighting the domestic large aircraft sector [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that China's large aircraft development has faced numerous challenges but has ultimately succeeded with the C919, marking a significant milestone in the country's aviation industry [3]. - It predicts that the demand for large aircraft will shift towards the Asia-Pacific region, with China becoming the largest aviation service market globally within the next two decades [4][50]. - The report identifies China Commercial Aircraft Corporation (COMAC) as the most promising player to disrupt the existing duopoly of Boeing and Airbus in the large aircraft market [5][59]. Summary by Sections 1. Development History of Large Aircraft - The journey of China's large aircraft development began with the Y-10 in the 1970s, which faced numerous setbacks until the successful development of the C919 [20][31]. - The C919 project represents a comprehensive approach to developing a full range of commercial aircraft, including the ARJ21 and the upcoming C929 [36][39]. 2. Global Large Aircraft Market Size and Structure - The report notes that the global demand for large aircraft is increasingly centered around the Asia-Pacific region, driven by robust economic growth and infrastructure development in China [47]. - It forecasts that over the next 20 years, China's airlines will receive 9,323 new aircraft, accounting for 21.3% of global deliveries, with a market value of approximately $1.4 trillion [50]. 3. Domestic Large Aircraft Industry Chain and Recommended Stocks - The report recommends key companies in the large aircraft supply chain, including AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group (000768.SZ), AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (600760.SH), and AVIC High-Tech (600862.SH) [2][8]. - These companies are positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for the C919 and other new aircraft models, as well as the growing domestic aviation market [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the non-bank financial industry [1]. Core Insights - The non-bank financial industry is encouraged to enhance its technology financial services, with a focus on the evaluation of the "Five Major Articles" by the China Securities Association, emphasizing the importance of technology finance [7][14]. - Recent regulatory developments aim to improve corporate governance and enhance the operational mechanisms of enterprises, which is expected to positively impact the capital market ecosystem [15][27]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The evaluation framework for securities firms includes a total score of 100 points, with technology finance accounting for 50 points, highlighting the regulatory emphasis on this sector [14][29]. Market Review - During the week of May 26 to June 1, 2025, the CSI 300 Index and the ChiNext Index experienced declines of 1.08% and 1.40%, respectively, while the non-bank financial index rose by 0.17%, ranking 16th among 31 sectors [16][19]. - The total trading volume in A-shares was 5.47 trillion yuan, with an average daily turnover of 1.09 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 6.77% week-on-week [16][21]. Industry Key Data Tracking 1) Market Performance and Scale: Major indices showed varying degrees of decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.03% [16][21]. 2) Credit Business: As of May 30, 2025, the market had 3,123.03 million shares pledged, accounting for 3.86% of total equity, with a margin balance of 1.80 trillion yuan [21][24]. 3) Fund Issuance: In May 2025, new fund issuance totaled 657.59 billion units, a decrease of 28.90% from the previous month [21][23]. 4) Investment Banking: The equity underwriting scale in May 2025 was 16.795 billion yuan, with IPOs amounting to 3.456 billion yuan [21]. 5) Bond Market: The total price index of bonds decreased by 0.94% since the beginning of the year, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.67%, up by 6.35 basis points [21][27]. Regulatory Policies and Industry Dynamics - The central government has issued opinions to enhance the modern enterprise system, aiming for significant improvements in corporate governance and operational efficiency by 2035 [27][28].

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of Nvidia, with Q1 FY26 revenue reaching $44 billion, a 69% year-over-year increase, driven by a 73% increase in data center revenue to $39 billion. Despite a $2.5 billion order loss due to U.S. government policy changes, Nvidia has successfully transitioned from Hopper to Blackwell architecture, improving manufacturing yields and ramping up cabinet shipments to major CSP customers [6][7]. Industry Commentary - Nvidia's focus on edge computing is emphasized, with record gaming revenue of $3.8 billion in Q1, a 48% quarter-over-quarter increase. New products like RTX 5060 are driving a wave of upgrades among gamers. The introduction of tools like DGX Spark and DGX Station aims to support AI developers and research institutions, facilitating the deployment of local intelligent agents [6][7]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has issued the "Computing Power Interconnection Action Plan," aiming to establish a comprehensive standard and rule system for computing power interconnection by 2026. This initiative is expected to enhance the utilization of domestic computing power cards and support the sustainability of computing power leasing businesses [6][7]. Market Trends - The overall market experienced a decline during the week of May 26 to May 30, 2025, with the Shenwan Communications Index rising by 1.53%. Notable stock performances included HaiGe Communication and New Yi Sheng, with increases of 16.34% and 7.03%, respectively. Conversely, Dongtu Technology and Ruikeda saw declines of 4.96% and 3.52% [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry, indicating an expected increase in stock prices exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% [1]. Core Insights - Nvidia's FY26Q1 financial report shows a revenue of $44 billion, a 69% year-over-year increase, with data center revenue reaching $39 billion, up 73% year-over-year. The transition from Hopper to Blackwell has improved production yields significantly, and Nvidia is ramping up the production of GB200 and GB300 [3][14]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "Computing Power Interconnection Action Plan," aiming to establish a comprehensive standard and rule system for computing power interconnection by 2026, which is expected to enhance the utilization of domestic computing power resources [5][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Nvidia's network business achieved $5 billion in revenue for Q1, a 64% quarter-over-quarter increase, driven by the shipment of NVLINK products and strong growth in Scaleout network products like SpectrumX, which has an annualized revenue exceeding $8 billion [3][14]. - The focus on edge computing by Nvidia is expected to drive growth in local intelligent deployments, particularly in sectors like autonomous driving and robotics, as costs for sensors decrease [4][15]. Market Performance - The overall market saw a decline during the week of May 26 to May 30, 2025, with the Shenwan Communication Index rising by 1.53%, while major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index experienced slight declines [7][18]. - The top-performing sectors included wireless RF (+8.17%), satellite communication (+4.82%), and operators (+2.32%) [7][18]. Recommended Companies - Key companies to watch include: - Overseas Computing Power: New Yisheng, Zhongji Xuchuang, Cambridge Technology, Yuanjie Technology, Shijia Photon, Tengjing Technology, Wolong Nuclear Materials, Dingtong Technology, Shenghong Technology [6][18]. - Autonomous Vehicles/Robotics: Guanghetong, Meige Intelligent, Huagong Technology, Tianzhun Technology, Zhongke Chuangda, Chuangyao Technology, Yutai Micro, Suteng Juchuang, Hesai Technology [6][18]. - Computing Power Network: China Mobile, China Telecom, Shengke Communication, Changfei Optical Fiber, Bochuang Technology, Dekeli, Guangxun Technology [6][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating an expected increase in stock prices exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% [1][44]. Core Insights - Nvidia's FY26Q1 revenue reached $44 billion, a 69% year-over-year increase, with data center revenue at $39 billion, up 73% year-over-year. The company faced a $2.5 billion order delivery issue due to U.S. government policy changes regarding H20, leading to a potential $8 billion revenue loss in Q2. However, Nvidia has successfully transitioned from Hopper to Blackwell, with improved manufacturing yields and strong cabinet shipments to major CSP customers [2][3][15]. - Nvidia emphasizes edge computing and has introduced tools to support the development of robotics and autonomous driving ecosystems. The gaming revenue hit a record $3.8 billion, growing 48% quarter-over-quarter and 42% year-over-year, driven by new products like RTX 5060. The company is also focusing on local AI deployment through platforms like Omniverse and Isaac [4][16]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "Computing Power Interconnection Action Plan," aiming to establish a comprehensive standard and rule system for computing power interconnection by 2026 and achieve nationwide public computing power standardization by 2028. This initiative is seen as crucial for enhancing the utilization of domestic computing power cards and sustaining government and enterprise computing leasing businesses [5][17]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Nvidia's transition to Blackwell has received positive market feedback, with expectations for continued valuation recovery in supporting sectors like optical modules and power supply units [3][15]. - The edge computing focus is expected to drive growth in sectors such as robotics and autonomous vehicles, with significant opportunities in control systems and sensors [4][16]. Market Performance - The overall market saw a decline during the week of May 26 to May 30, 2025, with the Shenwan Communications Index rising by 1.53%. The top-performing sectors included wireless RF (+8.17%) and satellite communications (+4.82%) [8][19]. - Individual stocks such as Haige Communications and Xinyi Technology led the gains, while companies like Dongtu Technology and Ruikeda experienced notable declines [31][19]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in various sectors, including overseas computing (e.g., Xinyi Technology, Zhongji Xuchuang), robotics and autonomous vehicles (e.g., Guanghetong, Meige Intelligent), and computing networks (e.g., China Mobile, China Telecom) [19][7].

Market Overview - The domestic market indices showed positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,376.20, up by 0.42% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also experienced gains of 0.87% and 1.11% respectively [2] Macro Strategy - The report highlights the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies, with expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September and December [4] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 240,000, indicating a cooling job market, while Q1 GDP was revised to a -0.2% annualized rate, primarily affected by net exports [4] - The report suggests that inflation concerns in the U.S. are limited, with consumer spending showing signs of stability [4] Agricultural Sector Analysis - The agricultural sector, particularly the pig farming industry, is showing signs of recovery with pig prices increasing. As of May 30, the average price for live pigs in key provinces was reported at 14.15, 15.64, and 14.40 CNY/kg, reflecting increases of 0.71%, 1.62%, and 1.05% respectively [6] - The report is optimistic about Haida Group's investment opportunities due to improving feed industry conditions and potential growth in overseas feed business [6] - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the pig farming industry, noting that while profitability is expected to improve, the industry still faces challenges related to debt reduction [6] Robotics Industry Insights - The report identifies 2025 as a pivotal year for the humanoid robot industry, which is expected to experience significant growth supported by favorable policies [8] - A total of 28 convertible bonds related to the humanoid robot supply chain have been identified, with specific recommendations for ten key bonds that are well-positioned in this sector [8][10] Photovoltaic Industry Update - The report tracks the photovoltaic industry, noting that battery prices remain stable while component prices are experiencing structural declines [9] - The average price for N-type battery cells is reported at 0.25 CNY/W, with a slight decrease in component prices due to inventory pressures [9] - The report recommends several companies in the photovoltaic sector, including Aiko Solar and Longi Green Energy, based on their technological advancements and market positioning [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is optimistic about the long - term prospects of the humanoid robot industry and suggests actively seeking structural opportunities in the convertible bond market [2][29] Core Viewpoints - The convertible bond market is expected to remain at a high level. Due to factors such as reduced new bond issuance and increased forced redemptions since 2023, the supply - demand imbalance in the convertible bond market is difficult to change in the short term. With the continuous activity of the stock market, investors should increase their risk appetite and actively seek structural opportunities [1][24] - The humanoid robot industry has broad prospects. Although the concept has been popular for some time, its industrialization is just beginning. In 2025, it is regarded as the mass - production year of humanoid robots, with high growth potential and policy support [3][29] Summary by Directory I. Humanoid Robot - Related Convertible Bond List - There are about 480 convertible bonds in the market, and 28 of them are related to humanoid robots. The report provides detailed information on these bonds, including code, name, market price, conversion premium rate, bond balance, remaining term, rating, and remarks [11][12] II. Expected High - Level Operation of the Convertible Bond Market 1. Convertible Bond Market Price and YTM Have Returned to the Upper Limit of the Reasonable Range - The median market price and YTM of the convertible bond market have returned to the upper limit of the reasonable range, indicating that the market has recovered from the trough [13] 2. Supply - Demand Relationship and Stock Market Conditions Drive the Convertible Bond Market to Remain High - Since 2023, the number of new convertible bonds issued has decreased significantly, and the number of forced - redemption bonds has increased. The total market value of the convertible bond market has dropped from nearly 1.1 trillion yuan in early September 2023 to about 800 billion yuan. Benefiting from the stock market recovery, the median conversion premium rate of the convertible bond market has fallen to the lower limit of the reasonable range, showing a stock - like characteristic. The combination of supply - demand imbalance and active stock market is expected to keep the convertible bond market at a high level [15][24][27] III. Actively Seek Structural Opportunities 1. Optimistic about the Long - Term Prospects of Humanoid Robots - High - end institutions predict that the global humanoid robot market will have significant growth in the future. By 2035, the global humanoid robot shipments will reach 1.4 million units, with a market size of about $38 billion. In China, the market size is expected to grow from about 2.76 billion yuan in 2024 to 75 billion yuan in 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 93.57% [29] 2. Analysis of the Humanoid Robot Industry Chain: Mass - Production Year, Just Beginning - The breakthrough of humanoid robots is mainly concentrated in three aspects: software system integration optimization, core hardware technology breakthrough and low - cost mass production, and top - level policy support and resource integration by large enterprises. The single - unit value of humanoid robots is mainly concentrated in three core fields: precision transmission, drive, and perception systems [32][35] 3. List of Key Convertible Bonds in the Humanoid Robot Industry - After comprehensive consideration of bond terms, underlying stock fundamentals, valuation, and short - term price fluctuations, ten convertible bonds are recommended for key attention, including Hao 24 Convertible Bond, Guansheng Convertible Bond, etc. [36] 3.1 Hao 24 Convertible Bond - The company is a leader in the synchronizer industry and has a growing differential business. It is also actively involved in the humanoid robot core components, with its subsidiary focusing on high - precision planetary reducers and joint drive assemblies. The bond is suitable for the high - price and low - premium strategy [40][41] 3.2 Guansheng Convertible Bond - The company's automotive business is stable, and its stock valuation is relatively low. It is exploring the solid - state battery business and has started preliminary business negotiations with humanoid robot manufacturers. The bond has a small balance, a low conversion premium rate, and is suitable for the high - price and low - premium strategy [44][45] 3.3 Huitong Convertible Bond - The company has good performance and low PE valuation. It is one of the few domestic enterprises capable of mass - producing PEEK materials, which are used in the humanoid robot industry. The bond has a small balance, a low conversion premium rate, and is suitable for the high - price and low - premium strategy [47][48] 3.4 Lingyi Convertible Bond - The company is a global leader in consumer electronics precision manufacturing and has long - term experience in robot R & D and production. It is a core hardware supplier for Figure AI. The bond is a new high - rated bond with a small free - floating market value and is expected to benefit from the development of the humanoid robot industry [50][51] 3.5 Sheng 24 Convertible Bond - The company's business has returned to normal after the termination of the controlling - shareholder change plan. Although its performance was poor in 2024, it is expected to improve in the long term. It has strategically布局 the humanoid robot business. The bond has a long remaining term, a relatively low price, and a low conversion premium rate, making it a good balanced convertible bond [53][54] 3.6 Rong 23 Convertible Bond - The company is a component stock of the Yushu Robot Index through indirect investment. Its main business is relatively traditional but has stable performance and low valuation. The bond has a small balance and a low conversion premium rate, making it a good balanced convertible bond [56][57] 3.7 Keli Convertible Bond - The company is a leader in the power lithium - battery structural parts industry. It has chosen the robot business as its second development curve. The bond has a relatively low price, an acceptable conversion premium rate, and is a good balanced convertible bond [59] 3.8 Aidi Convertible Bond - The company is a leader in the hydraulic breaker industry and has forward - lookingly布局 the industrial robot business. It is also exploring the humanoid robot reducer business. The bond has a relatively low price, a small balance, and an acceptable conversion premium rate, making it a good balanced convertible bond [60][61] 3.9 Tai 21 Convertible Bond - The company has a complete industrial chain and high - tech barriers. Its performance has been growing rapidly. The bond has a relatively low price, a small balance, and may be subject to a downward revision in the future. The potential application of PA66 in humanoid robots may boost the stock valuation [63][64] 3.10 Kewuo Convertible Bond - The company is a leader in the service robot industry and benefits from consumer subsidies. It is also considered a humanoid robot concept stock due to its potential technological synergy. The bond has a relatively low price, a high conversion premium rate, and a short remaining term [66][67]

研究早观点 2025 年 6 月 4 日 星期三 市场走势 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 资料来源：最闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,361.98 | 0.43 | | 深证成指 | | 10,057.17 | 0.16 | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,852.01 | 0.31 | | 中小板指 | | 6,316.53 | 0.61 | | 创业板指 | | 2,002.70 | 0.48 | | 科创 | 50 | 981.71 | 0.48 | | 资料来源：最闻 | | | | 分析师： 【行业评论】电力设备及新能源：行业周报（20250526-20250601）- 上海成立具身智能数据联盟，硅料价格下行 【公司评论】隆基绿能(601012.SH)：隆基绿能公司点评-产业链价格下 行拖累业绩，2025 ...

宏观策略 海外市场周观察（20250526~20250601） 2025 年 6 月 4 日 宏观策略/定期报告 投资要点： 美国：关税政策不确定性再升 （1）央行动态 山证宏观策略团队 分析师： 本周虽然初请失业金人数再度冲高，但并未突破 40 万人的警戒水平，4 月美国个人消费支出等硬数据显示美国经济依旧在温和放缓，因此，市场对 于美联储的政策预期变化不大，截止 6 月 3 日，根据 CME FedWatch 工具， 市场预计美联储 9 月将降息 25bp，12 月再降 25bp，较上周基本保持不变。 范鑫 （2）重点数据 执业登记编码：S0760523070002 邮箱：fanxin@sxzq.com 5 月 24 日当周，初请失业金人数冲高至 24 万人，两个月移动平均也显 示出上升趋势，暗示美国就业市场出现降温迹象。25Q1 实际 GDP 环比折年 率-0.2%（上修 0.1 个百分点），其中，净出口拖累 4.9 个百分点，贸易政策 带来的扭曲十分明显，消费者支出从 1.8%下修至 1.2%。亚特兰大联储 5 月 30 日将 25Q2 的 GDP 预测上修至 3.8%（5 月 23 日预测为 2.4 ...