分析师： 研究早观点 2025 年 6 月 30 日 星期一 市场走势 资料来源：最闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,424.23 | -0.70 | | 深证成指 | | 10,378.55 | 0.34 | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,921.76 | -0.61 | | 中小板指 | | 6,472.18 | 0.22 | | 创业板指 | | 2,124.34 | 0.47 | | 科创 50 | | 988.21 | -0.18 | | 资料来源：最闻 | | | | 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【山证宏观】2025 年一季度国内经济回顾及中期展望：稳固基础，波 动改善 【行业评论】太阳能：202506 光伏行业月度报告-5 月光伏新增装机同比增 长 388%，组件、逆变器出口额环比增长 【公司评论】三花智控(002050.SZ)：三花智控：业绩预告靓丽，港股 IPO 顺利发行 2 ...

化学制药 创新药动态更新 领先大市-B(维持) 相关报告： 魏赟 2025 年 6 月 30 日 行业研究/行业快报 化学制药行业近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻 首选股票 评级 BGB-43395≥240 mg 每日两次剂量具有生物活性。BGB-43395 表现出快 速吸收和线性药代动力学特征，平均消除半衰期为 13 小时，与氟维司群或 来曲唑进行联合用药不会影响 BGB-43395 暴露量。氟维司群联合治疗队列 中，≥240mg 每日两次剂量组获得具有临床意义的药效学作用，≥240 mg 每 日两次剂量组观察到早期（C2D1）ctDNA 降低。 邮箱：zhangzhiyong@sxzq.com BGB-43395 是一款百济神州自主研发的 CDK4 抑制剂。BGB-43395 是 CDK4 的高度选择性抑制剂，靶向控制细胞分裂的检查点蛋白以阻止癌细胞 生长。相比 CDK4/6 抑制剂哌柏西利、瑞波西利、阿贝西利及 CDK4 抑制剂 Atirmociclib，BGB-43395 展现出最高的 CDK4 抑制性和选择性。BGB-43395 具有潜在同类最佳血液学安全性特征，在既往接受过多线治疗的 CDK4/6 ...

请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 宏观 稳固基础，波动改善 ——2025 年一季度国内经济回顾及中期展望 2025 年 6 月 27 日 宏观研究/主题报告 投资要点： 展望 2025 年，外部环境面临较大不确定性，我国全力巩固经济基本面， 着力实现"四稳"目标，实际 GDP 增速有望维持在 5%左右，经济或延续 波动改善。5 月中美关税问题边际缓和，短期我国出口或仍保持韧性，不过 未来仍存不确定性。国内政策更加积极，讲求针对性、有效性。在大力提振 消费、促进房地产市场回稳的基础上，以市场化方式深化供给侧结构性改革， 促进价格合理回升。节奏上，"两新""两重"等政策加码，以及"抢出口" 效应下，一季度经济增速已稳中有升，部分经济前瞻指标有所改善；二季度 专项债和特别国债加快发行使用，降准降息落地，政策协调配合加强，外需 压力可控，但内生动能不稳定，经济增速或微幅回落；三季度外部环境仍不 确定，叠加财政、促消费政策效应进入到相对平稳的阶段，届时经济增速可 能放缓较为明显；四季度政策大概率加力对冲，尤其是财政政策加码可能性 更大，对消费和投资的推动效果更为直接。需求结构上，消费、基建首先受 益于政策驱动， ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the solar industry, with specific ratings as follows: - Aiyu Co., Ltd. (600732.SH) - Buy-B - Longi Green Energy (601012.SH) - Buy-B - Flat Glass Group (601865.SH) - Buy-A - Hengdian East Magnetic (002056.SZ) - Buy-A - Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ) - Buy-A - Canadian Solar (688472.SH) - Buy-A - Deye Technology (605117.SH) - Buy-A - Langxin Group (300682.SZ) - Buy-B - Quartz Co., Ltd. (603688.SH) - Buy-A [2] Core Insights - The solar industry is experiencing significant growth, with domestic photovoltaic (PV) installations in May 2025 reaching 92.9 GW, representing a year-on-year increase of 388% and a month-on-month increase of 105.5% [3][13] - Cumulative PV installations from January to May 2025 totaled 197.85 GW, reflecting a 150% year-on-year increase [3][13] - In May 2025, the export value of solar modules was 173.2 billion yuan, down 13.7% year-on-year but up 7.2% month-on-month [4][16] - The export value of inverters in May 2025 was 59.7 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.0% and a month-on-month increase of 2.7% [5][30] - Solar power generation in May 2025 increased by 7.3% year-on-year, contributing to 6.38% of the total industrial power generation in China [6][41] Summary by Sections 1. Installation - Domestic PV installations in May 2025 reached 92.9 GW, with a year-on-year growth of 388% and a month-on-month growth of 105.5% [3][13] - Cumulative installations from January to May 2025 were 197.85 GW, up 150% year-on-year [3][13] 2. Exports - Solar module exports in May 2025 totaled 173.2 billion yuan, down 13.7% year-on-year but up 7.2% month-on-month [4][16] - Cumulative module exports from January to May 2025 were 795.6 billion yuan, down 24.0% year-on-year [4][16] - Inverter exports in May 2025 were valued at 59.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.0% and a month-on-month increase of 2.7% [5][30] - Cumulative inverter exports from January to May 2025 reached 240.0 billion yuan, up 9.5% year-on-year [5][30] 3. Power Generation - Solar power generation in May 2025 was 470.8 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.3% [6][41] - Solar power accounted for 6.38% of the total industrial power generation in China [6][41] 4. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include focusing on new technology directions with companies like Aiyu Co., Ltd. and Longi Green Energy, supply-side improvements with Flat Glass Group, and overseas expansion with Hengdian East Magnetic and Sungrow Power Supply [6][45]

其他家电 三花智控（002050.SZ） 买入-A(首次) 业绩预告靓丽，港股 IPO 顺利发行 2025 年 6 月 27 日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 事件描述 2025 年 6 月 24 日晚，三花智控发布了 2025 年半年度业绩预告，2025H1 实现营收 150.4-177.8 亿，同比增长 10%-30%，归属于上市公司净利润为 18.9-22.7 亿，同比增长 25%-50%。 事件点评 家电零部件高景气度，对业绩贡献度较大。根据奥维云网数据，今年 4-5 月空调零售额线下增速分别是 12.2%、38.7%，今年 4-5 月空调零售额线上增 速分别是 34.8%、46%，6 月份市场大促，再叠加夏季到来，预计空调的需 求仍旧较高，整体而言，在以旧换新背景下，Q2 空调零售数据较为出色， 公司作为龙头显著受益于市场的需求增长，预计增速较高。 汽车零部件受益于标杆客户的示范效应，订单不断拓展。近年来新能源 汽车发展趋势向好，汽车热管理系统的需求持续大幅增长，根据弗若斯特沙 利文的资料，全球新能源汽车销量从 2024 年的 2140 万辆预计到 2029 年增 加到 4720 万辆，复 ...

研究早观点 市场走势 资料来源：最闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,448.45 | -0.22 | | 深证成指 | | 10,343.48 | -0.48 | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,946.02 | -0.35 | | 中小板指 | | 6,457.70 | -0.72 | | 创业板指 | | 2,114.43 | -0.66 | | 科创 | 50 | 989.97 | -0.57 | 资料来源：最闻 2025 年 6 月 27 日 星期五 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【行业评论】通信：山西证券通信行业周跟踪：MWC 上海展示低轨卫 星地面基建新机遇，AMD Helios 机柜或使用更多光模块与铜缆-—— MWC 上海展示低轨卫星地面基建新机遇，AMD Helios 机柜或使用更 多光模块与铜缆 【行业评论】非银行金融：行业周报（20250616-20250622）： ...

非银行金融 行业周报（20250616-20250622） 领先大市-A(维持) 2025 年 6 月 26 日 行业研究/行业周报 非银行金融行业近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻 相关报告： 【山证非银行金融】券商专项评价办法 细化，期货市场再迎新规-行业周报 （20250609-20250615）： 2025.6.16 【山证非银行金融】券商回购释放信心， 行 业 估 值 仍 处 低 位 - 行 业 周 报 （20250602-20250608）： 2025.6.10 新规将"引导证券公司更好发挥功能作用，提升专业能力"写 入总则，突出促进证券公司功能发挥导向，同时，通过减少规模类 指标重复加分，提升净资产收益率、投行等各主要业务加分覆盖面， 增设基金投顾等专项指标的，有利于大型券商发挥综合实力，走资 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 李明阳 执业登记编码：S0760525050002 邮箱：limingyang@sxzq.com 孙田田 执业登记编码：S0760518030001 电话：0351-8686900 邮箱：suntiantian@sxzq.com 刘丽 执业登记编码：S07605110 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the telecommunications industry [1]. Core Insights - The NTN (Non-Terrestrial Network) industry chain is maturing rapidly, with ground infrastructure poised for significant development. The MWC Shanghai 2025 highlighted satellite internet as a key focus, presenting at least three catalysts and investment opportunities for the sector [2][15]. - The next-generation low Earth orbit (LEO) constellation design is nearly mature, with domestic projects like Qianfan, State Grid, Hongyan, and Tianqi starting to form. The NTN architecture is becoming mainstream, benefiting major 5G equipment manufacturers such as Huawei, ZTE, and others [3][16]. - As the trial commercial use of low Earth orbit constellations approaches, ground infrastructure will see accelerated growth. The low Earth satellite communication system in China is expected to enter public testing this year, with consumer-level satellite networking anticipated in the second half of the year [4][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Viewpoint and Investment Suggestions - The NTN industry is expected to benefit from the upcoming commercial trials of low Earth orbit satellites, with significant opportunities in ground infrastructure and satellite payloads [15][17]. - Key companies to watch include: - Low Earth Satellite Payload: Xinke Mobile, Fenghuo Communication, ZTE, Tongyu Communication, Jingxin Communication, and others [20]. - Low Earth Ground Infrastructure: Changjiang Communication, Zhenyou Technology, Xinke Mobile, China Tower, and others [20]. - Super Node Communication: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Wolong Nuclear Materials, and others [20]. 2. Market Overview - The telecommunications index rose by 1.58% during the week of June 16-20, 2025, while major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index saw declines [8][18]. - The top-performing sectors included optical modules (+9.6%), optical cables (+8.2%), and liquid cooling (+3.8%) [8][18]. 3. Company Performance - Notable stock performances included Longfly Fiber (+15.10%), Yuanjie Technology (+12.06%), and others leading in gains, while Zhenyou Technology and others faced significant declines [34][36].

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic market indices showed positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,455.97, up by 1.04%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10,393.72, up by 1.72% [4] Group 2: Agricultural Sector Insights - The agricultural sector, particularly the pig farming industry, is experiencing a price increase, with average pig prices in key provinces showing a mixed trend. As of June 20, the average prices were 13.70, 15.54, and 14.38 CNY/kg in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan respectively [6] - The average pork price increased by 0.35% to 20.33 CNY/kg, while the average wholesale price for piglets rose by 3.17% to 28.00 CNY/kg [6] - The report highlights the potential recovery in the feed industry due to declining upstream raw material prices and improving downstream farming conditions, particularly for Haida Group [6] Group 3: Pig Farming Cycle Analysis - The report discusses the "pig cycle," emphasizing that it is fundamentally a capacity cycle rather than just a price cycle. The recovery of production capacity does not necessarily correlate with profitability, which depends on the speed of capacity recovery [6] - The report suggests that the current market may be overly pessimistic regarding the impact of production capacity recovery on profitability, potentially overlooking the positive effects of declining raw material costs and macroeconomic demand recovery in 2025 [6] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several pig farming stocks, including Wens Foodstuffs, Shennong Group, Juxing Agriculture, Tangrenshen, and New Hope, based on the anticipated recovery in profitability [6] - In the poultry sector, the report notes that the performance of Shengnong Development is at a low point in both earnings and price-to-book valuation, indicating good investment potential [6] Group 5: Biopharmaceutical Sector Insights - The report provides an update on the innovative drug Iza-bren, which has shown significant efficacy in treating NSCLC and SCLC patients. The overall response rate (ORR) for NSCLC patients was reported at 52.0%, with a disease control rate (DCR) of 86.7% [8][11] - Iza-bren has demonstrated good safety and anti-tumor activity across various patient groups, including those with EGFR mutations and other driver gene mutations [8][11] Group 6: Photovoltaic Industry Insights - The report indicates that the prices of photovoltaic components have remained stable, with the 182mm TOPCon double-glass component priced at 0.68 CNY/W. However, the market demand is expected to be low in July, leading to potential price pressures [10] - The report notes a significant increase in installed capacity for photovoltaic systems, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 150% in the first five months of the year [10]

生物医药 创新药动态更新 领先大市-B(维持) iza-bren 肺癌更新：EGFR 野生型、EGFR 突变等 NSCLC 疗效突出，SCLC 后线 OS 疗效显著 2025 年 6 月 25 日 行业研究/行业快报 生物医药行业近一年市场表现 药物点评： 首选股票 评级 iza-bren（BL-B01D1）是百利天恒自主研发的 EGFR×HER3 双抗 ADC。 iza-bren 由 EGFR×HER3 双特异性抗体组成，通过可裂解连接子连接至新型 TOP-1 抑制剂 Ed-04。DAR 为 8。iza-bren 与在肿瘤细胞上共表达的 EGFR 及 HER3 结合来缓解抗药性，喜树硷类衍生物 Ed-04 被内化并转运至溶酶体释 放促使细胞凋亡。iza-bren 正在中美进行约 30 项肿瘤临床试验，进行 10 项 III 期临床，并和合作伙伴 BMS 推进美国 III 期临床。iza-bren 在 EGFR 野生 型、EGFR 突变型、经典 EGFR 突变外的驱动基因突变 NSCLC 及 SCLC 患 者中均有良好安全性和抗肿瘤活性。 相关报告： iza-bren 在 EGFR 野生型、EGFR 突变 N ...