证 券 研 究 报 告 策略快评报告 策略研究 策略研究|策略快评报告 [Table_Pagehead] 革。财税改革重点方向为建立权责清晰、财力协调、区域均 衡的中央和地方财政关系。金融体制改革方面，《决定》要 求积极做好金融"五篇大文章"，提出制定金融法，完善金 融监管体系，推动金融高水平开放等核心内容。 ⚫ 深化资本市场改革，更好发挥资本市场功能：《决定》还要 求壮大耐心资本支持新质生产力发展、构建科技金融体制 支持科技创新，加强对国家重大科技任务和科技型中小企 业的金融支持等，更好地发挥资本市场功能推动经济高质 量发展。同时，要求健全投资和融资相协调的资本市场功 能，提高直接融资比重。通过提高资金配置效率，促进产业 结构升级和经济发展方式的转变。市场信心有望得到提振。 ⚫ 风险因素：政策效果未如预期；国内经济表现不及预期；投 资者情绪波动。 [Table_Pagehead] $$start$$ $$end$$ [Table_InudstryRankInfo] 行业投资评级 强于大市：未来6个月内行业指数相对大盘涨幅10％以上； 同步大市：未来6个月内行业指数相对大盘涨幅10％至-10％之间； 弱于大市 ...

[Table_RightTitle] 证券研究报告|银行 证 券 研 究 报 告 行业快评报告 行业研究 3317 [Table_Title] 进一步健全市场化利率调控机制 [Table_IndustryRank] 强于大市(维持) [Table_ReportType] ——银行行业快评报告[Table_ReportDate] 2024 年 07 月 23 日 [事件Table_Summary] : 2024 年 7 月 22 日,1 年期及 5 年期 LPR 分别下调 10bp 至 3.35%/3.85%,7 天逆回购操作利率下调 10bp 至 1.70%。 投资要点: 符合进一步健全市场化利率调控机制的大方向:本次央行以 固定利率、数量招标方式开展的逆回购操作以及 LPR 报价利 率的调整,均符合进一步健全市场化的利率调控方向,即或以 7 天逆回购操作利率作为央行短期操作的主要政策利率,淡化 其他期限货币政策工具的政策利率色彩,逐步理顺由短及长 的传导关系,以及持续改革完善贷款市场报价利率(LPR),针 对部分报价利率显著偏离实际最优惠客户利率的问题,着重 提高 LPR 报价质量,更真实反映贷款市场利率水 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the emphasis on deepening medical and health system reforms, promoting the expansion and balanced distribution of quality medical resources, and enhancing the medical service system [2][3]. - The meeting proposed to support the innovative development of new drugs, medical devices, and traditional Chinese medicine, alongside reforms in medical insurance payment methods and the establishment of a sound social security system [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Reform and Development - The meeting emphasized the need to deepen medical reform, support the innovative development of drugs and medical devices, and improve the mechanisms for the inheritance and innovation of traditional Chinese medicine [3]. - It proposed the promotion of provincial-level coordination in basic medical insurance and the reform of payment methods, as well as enhancing the supervision of medical insurance funds [3]. Resource Allocation and Healthcare System - The report discusses the acceleration of the hierarchical diagnosis and treatment system and the construction of tightly-knit medical alliances, reinforcing grassroots healthcare services [3]. - It also mentions the need for public hospital reforms guided by public welfare, establishing a service-oriented charging mechanism, and improving the salary system [3]. Aging Population and Economic Development - The meeting addressed the development of the silver economy, optimizing basic elderly care services, and encouraging social forces to participate in community elderly care services [3]. - It highlighted the importance of developing a multi-level and multi-pillar pension insurance system and expanding the coverage of the annuity system [3]. Foreign Investment and Market Opening - The report notes the reform of foreign investment management systems, including the expansion of encouraged foreign investment industries and the removal of restrictions on foreign investment in the manufacturing sector [3].

范化解意识形态风险"，未来将持续加强意识形态建设。 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏观快评报告 宏观研究 证券研究报告|宏观报告 [Table_Pagehead] 基准指数 ：沪深300指数 [Table_RiskInfo] 风险提示 我们在此提醒您，不同证券研究机构采用不同的评级术语及评级标准。我们采用的是相对评级体系，表示投资 的相对比重建议；投资者买入或者卖出证券的决定取决于个人的实际情况，比如当前的持仓结构以及其他需要 上海浦东新区世纪大道 1528 号陆家嘴基金大厦 北京西城区平安里西大街 28 号中海国际中心 深圳福田区深南大道 2007 号金地中心 广州天河区珠江东路 11 号高德置地广场 [Table_Pagehead] 证券研究报告|宏观报告 究的权利。 [Table_RightTitle] ⚫ 关注后续各部委表态和重要文件发布。本次大会公告主要 是关于目标的指定和战略发展方向，后续三中全会全文即 将公布，对各个改革领域将做出更加细化的部署。7 月底 的政治局会议有望出台更多货币、地产等相关政策相关细 则。二季度经济增速不及市场预期，后续有望出台更多扶 持政策，来达到年内 5%的经济增速目标。 万 ...

证券研究报告 | 传媒 2024 ChinaJoy 展商名单正式公布,抖音启 动微短刷经营扶持计划 传媒行业周观点(07.15-07.21) 行业核心观点: 上周传媒行业(中方)下映 0. 21%,居市场筹 14 位,跑榆沪深 300 指 数。2024 ChinaJoy 長商名单正式公布。2024 年第二十一品 ChinaJoy 展会议"初心'洋' 在,精彩无限"为主题,将于 7 月 26 日至 7 月 29 日妃期举办。本爲展会汇集了法国、美国、加拿大、德国、英国、日本 等全球 31 个国家积地区的 600 余家和名企业参展, 整体展出面积 13 万 手来,外资企业近两百家,占比 30%。伴随全球业界对于今年 ChinaJoy 展会关注度的不断提升,组委会不断收到来自世界各地观众的咨询,预 期展会期间将会有众多观众入场参观。并肯启动微短刷经营扶持计划. 7 月 18 日,抖音推出微短剧经营扶持计划,投入亿级资源补贴优质内 容,经营扶持计划分为三个方向,具体为剁有潜力计划、启航计划和反 星计划,从微短剧营销、小程序经营、内容创作等方面扶持微短剧制作 方经营,促进行业精品化、高质量发展。 投资美点: 游戏: 1 ...

证券研究报告 | 消费 加快培育完整内需体系,关注消费税改革进 强手大市 (维持) 程 二十爲三中全会消费行业跟踪报告 2024 年 07 月 22 日 事件: 二十届三中全会通过的《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改 革、推进中国式现代化的决定》 于 7 月 21 日全文正式发 布。《决定》在消费领域的改革目标主要聚焦两大方面: 加 快培育完整内宽体系与深化财税体制改革。 投资卖点: 查点方向一: 加快培育完整内需体系。《决定》在构建全国统一 大市场中重中"办快培育完整内宽体系",并在消费领域提出 "充善扩大消费长效机制,减少限制性措施,合理增加公共消 贵,积极推进首发经济"四个要点。我们认为,内宽体系的逐渐 充善有望扩大消费市场规模,推动消费结构升级,促进消费行业 整体增长积转型。①完善扩大消费长效机制:通过稳定居民收入 预期、促进消费持续恢复、推动消费提质升级等各项举措,让居 民能消费、敢消费、恩消费。②减少限制性措施:沿袭今年政府 工作报告相关表述,强调全面稳填评估政策效应,审慎出台收缩 性、抑制性的政策举措。③合理增加公共消费: 公共消费包括教 育、医疗、养老、育幼等公共服务,适当扩大者患性公共服务供 给 ...

[Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_Summary] 核心观点 【重要新闻】 研报精选 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------|----------|---------| | [Table_InnerMarketIndex] 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 收盘 | | 涨跌幅% | | 上证指数 | 2,964.22 | -0.61% | | 深证成指 | 8,869.82 | -0.38% | | 沪深 300 | 3,514.92 | -0.68% | | 科创 50 | 752.00 | 0.34% | | 创业板指 | 1,723.91 | -0.09% | | 上证 50 | 2,432.55 | -0.99% | | 上证 180 | 7,785.72 | -0.69% | | 上证基金 | 5,945.31 | -0.15% | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------|- ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the promotion of large-scale equipment updates and the replacement of consumer goods to support high-quality economic development, with specific targets set for 2027, including a 25% increase in equipment investment in key sectors compared to 2023 [11][25][32] - The report identifies significant market potential in various industries, focusing on reducing energy consumption and emissions while enhancing technological standards, particularly in industrial machinery, construction, transportation, and durable consumer goods [27][31] - The report highlights that 13 out of 20 analyzed industries achieved positive year-on-year growth in net profit for Q1 2024, with notable growth in automotive parts, specialized equipment, and white goods [11][16][17] Group 2 - The report outlines that the average annual potential for replacing household appliances is approximately 240 million units, which could drive consumption exceeding 700 billion yuan [17][27] - The automotive replacement program is expected to generate consumption exceeding 750 billion yuan, with a significant portion of the vehicles eligible for replacement being new energy vehicles [17][27] - Financial and fiscal support measures are expected to increase, including subsidies and preferential loans, to further stimulate demand for equipment updates and consumer goods replacements [17][37] Group 3 - The report indicates that the performance of multiple sub-sectors is improving, with expectations for continued recovery in profitability, particularly in the automotive parts and specialized equipment sectors [11][16][17] - The report notes that inventory turnover rates have improved in 12 industries compared to Q1 2023, indicating a reduction in operational pressure, especially in the shipping ports, small appliances, and white goods sectors [11][16][17] - The report suggests that the manufacturing sector's profit and capacity utilization rates are gradually recovering, which is likely to enhance investment enthusiasm and promote equipment updates [37][50]

Group 1 - As of July 15, 2024, 1,579 A-share companies disclosed their mid-year performance forecasts, with a disclosure rate of 29.46% [7] - Among the disclosed forecasts, 672 companies reported positive performance expectations, accounting for 42.56% of the total [8] - The highest number of positive forecasts were for companies expecting profit increases, totaling 405, which represents 25.65% of the disclosures [8][29] Group 2 - The stable sector has the highest positive forecast ratio at 80.56%, while the financial sector has the lowest at 14.29% [11][30] - The cyclical sector had the most companies with positive forecasts, totaling 229, followed by the growth and consumption sectors with 100 and 71 companies, respectively [30] Group 3 - As of July 19, 2024, 11 primary industries had positive forecast ratios exceeding 50%, with the electronics, utilities, and automotive industries leading [33] - The electronics industry is experiencing a recovery in demand, with several companies optimizing their product structures, leading to improved profitability [37] - The utilities sector is benefiting from cost reductions and price increases, contributing to better financial performance [47] Group 4 - Midstream and downstream industries are expected to see improved profitability, particularly in transportation, electronics, and automotive sectors, driven by increased passenger volumes and overseas demand [39] - The light manufacturing, social services, environmental protection, and agriculture sectors have turned losses into profits, indicating a positive trend in these industries [37] - Net profits in the electronics, automotive, communication, food and beverage, and transportation sectors are projected to grow by over 70% year-on-year [37]

[Table_RightTitle] 证券研究报告|通信 [Table_Title] 发展新质生产力,关注人工智能和卫星互联 网产业链 [Table_ReportType] ——通信行业周观点(07.15-07.21) [Table_ReportDate] 2024 年 07 月 22 日 [行业核心观点: Table_Summary] 上周(7.15-7.19)沪深 300 指数上涨 1.92%,申万通信行业指数下跌 3.30%,在 31 个申万一级行业中排名第 30 位,跑输沪深 300 指数 5.22 个百分点。建议重点关注人工智能、卫星互联网等细分板块投资机会。 投资要点: 证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周观点 行业研究 3301 产业动态:(1)政策:《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革、推进中国 式现代化的决定》明确提出,"健全因地制宜发展新质生产力体制机 制"。(2)云服务:7月18日消息,市场研究公司IDC发布了中国政务云 市场份额系列研究报告。报告指出,2023年政务云整体市场规模为 794.5亿元。其中,政务专属云市场规模达557.6亿元,其中专属云基础 设施406.6亿元,同比增长16.6%; ...