2024 年票房表现承压，影院维稳运营 [Table_ReportType] ——传媒行业跟踪报告[Table_ReportDate] [投资要点： Table_Summary] ⚫ 2024 年票房有所下滑，主要受观影人次下降影响。从票房来看，由于 档期内影片质量供给不足，表现不及预期，2024 年电影总票房同比下 降 22.6%至 425.0 亿元，较 2023 年存在较大差距。从观影情况来看， 观影人次有所回落，下降至 10.09 亿人次，平均票价相较于 2023 年基 本持平，为 42.1 元。整体来看，2024 年票房回落主要是观影人次下降。 ⚫ 内陆国产电影市场表现明显承压，进口片整体表现优异。2024 年内陆 国产片票房仅达 324.6 亿元，同比下降 29.1%，对整体票房的贡献率为 76.6%。内陆国产影片整体内容创新和吸引力不足，导致大盘承压，尤 其在中高体量及爆款影片的供应上出现明显缺失；进口片表现亮眼，在 中国台湾的《周处除三害》、中国香港的《九龙城寨之围城》、泰国《姥 姥的外孙》等头部作品的推动下，票房达到 99.4 亿元，同比增长 9.7%。 ⚫ 影片供应量有所下降，喜剧片票房显著 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices on Tuesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 2.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 3.77%, and the ChiNext Index up by 4.71%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.35 trillion yuan. The computer, media, and machinery equipment sectors led the gains, while banking, coal, and oil and petrochemical sectors lagged behind [2][7]. Important News - The People's Bank of China released the 2024 financial statistics report, indicating that by the end of December 2024, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 313.53 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.3%. The narrow money supply (M1) was 67.1 trillion yuan, down by 1.4% year-on-year. The currency in circulation (M0) reached 12.82 trillion yuan, up by 13% year-on-year. In total, new RMB loans increased by 18.09 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 2.72 trillion yuan and corporate loans increasing by 14.33 trillion yuan [3][8]. - In 2024, the number of inbound and outbound travelers reached 610 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 43.9%. The issuance of visas to foreigners totaled 2.597 million, up by 52.3% year-on-year. The number of foreign nationals entering the country without a visa reached 20.115 million, a year-on-year increase of 112.3% [9]. Industry Research - The computer industry index underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices in 2024, ranking 14th among 31 first-level industries. The report anticipates that efforts to resolve local debt issues will alleviate pressure on accounts receivable in the computer industry and enhance funding budgets in key areas. The investment focus for 2025 will be on three main lines: trusted computing, digitalization, and intelligence [13]. - The trusted computing line will focus on the demand for centralized procurement and the supply of trusted computing products such as CPUs, operating systems, and databases. The digitalization line will emphasize the development and utilization of data infrastructure and resources. The intelligence line will concentrate on advancements in AI large models and the development of smart driving industries [14][16]. - The report highlights the significant growth in centralized procurement for trusted computing products, with a notable increase in the number of suppliers. The domestic AI model competition is intensifying, with major releases from OpenAI and Google, while domestic firms are also rapidly advancing in this space [15][16].

Policy and Market Confidence - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) held a meeting on January 13, 2025, to summarize 2024's work and outline key tasks for 2025, emphasizing risk prevention and high-quality development[3] - The meeting highlighted the need to stabilize the stock market and enhance dynamic monitoring and regulatory measures, which is expected to boost investor confidence in the A-share market[3] Capital Market Reform and Opening - The CSRC aims to deepen comprehensive reforms in capital market financing, addressing barriers for long-term capital inflow and enhancing the adaptability of policies to support new productive forces[3] - Optimizing the overseas listing filing system is part of the strategy to expand cross-border connectivity in capital markets, which is anticipated to increase the competitiveness and attractiveness of the A-share market[3] Regulatory Efficiency and Investor Protection - The CSRC plans to improve regulatory enforcement effectiveness and investor protection, focusing on enhancing the legal framework and utilizing technology for better precision in regulation[4] - New policies for protecting small and medium investors will be introduced to maintain market fairness and improve the overall market ecosystem[4] Support for Economic Recovery - The meeting called for the implementation of policies to support the financial sector's role in economic recovery, including the execution of specific measures like the "17 Articles for Venture Capital" and "8 Articles for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board"[4] - The securities industry is expected to enhance its service capabilities for both the real economy and wealth management, aligning with national strategic industrial layouts[4] Quality of Listed Companies - The CSRC emphasized the importance of improving the quality of listed companies through effective market value management and enhancing operational performance[4] - Strengthening the delisting mechanism and facilitating diverse exit channels are part of the strategy to stabilize market expectations and attract long-term capital into the A-share market[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include the possibility that policy effects may not meet expectations, significant changes in market conditions, and fluctuations in investor sentiment[4]

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed mixed performance on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.25%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.002% and 0.36% respectively. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 0.97 trillion yuan. The leading sectors included non-ferrous metals, beauty care, and real estate, while household appliances, banks, and textiles lagged behind [2][7]. Important News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a work meeting on January 13, 2025, to summarize 2024's work and plan for 2025. Key focuses include stabilizing the market, accelerating reforms, enhancing regulatory effectiveness, and fostering high-quality listed companies [3][8]. - The State Council issued measures to promote cultural and tourism consumption, outlining 18 specific actions to enhance consumer benefits, meet diverse age group needs, and optimize the consumption environment [3][8]. Industry Analysis - The SW Computer Industry Index underperformed compared to the CSI 300 and ChiNext Index in 2024, ranking 14th among 31 sectors. The focus for 2025 will be on three main investment themes: trusted computing, digitalization, and intelligence [9]. - Investment Theme One: Trusted Computing. Centralized procurement is expected to grow significantly, with a notable increase in the number of suppliers for central processing units (CPUs), operating systems, and databases. The third batch of security assessments has identified 78 products across these categories [9][11]. - Investment Theme Two: Data Elements. Policies are being introduced to regulate the industry and clarify development directions. The focus is on enhancing data infrastructure and maximizing the value of public data resources [12]. - Investment Theme Three: Artificial Intelligence. Competition in large models is intensifying, with significant releases from OpenAI and Google. Domestic firms are also accelerating their development, with a notable reduction in costs for AI model training and application [13]. Investment Recommendations - For trusted computing, attention should be paid to the growth of centralized procurement and the bidding situation in various regions. Key manufacturers of CPUs, operating systems, and databases should be prioritized [14]. - In digitalization, the focus should be on the construction of data infrastructure and the release of public and enterprise data resources [14]. - For intelligence, monitoring the reduction in costs for AI model training and the application of AI products is crucial [14].

披荆斩棘，硕果累累 [Table_ReportList] 相关研究 [Table_ReportType] ——2025 年计算机行业投资策略报告[Table_ReportDate] [行业核心观点： Table_Summary] 回顾 2024 年，SW 计算机行业指数年涨跌幅跑输沪深 300 和创业板指， 在 31 个申万一级行业中排名第 14，表现一般。我国加大力度化解地方 债务问题，有望缓解计算机行业应收压力，提升重点领域的资金预算。 展望 2025 年，综合数字经济产业的发展情况以及我国三中全会、中央 经济工作会议"实现高水平科技自立自强"的政策要求，继续聚焦信创、 数字化和智能化三大投资主线。1）信创主线：主要关注中央集中采购 需求以及中央处理器（CPU）、操作系统和数据库等信创产品的供给情况。 2）数字化主线：主要关注数据产业中数据基础设施、数据要素资源的 开发利用、数据要素的价值释放及应用落地。3）智能化主线：主要关 注国内 AI 大模型的技术升级、AI 大模型的成本降低、AI Agent 为代表 的 AI 产品应用落地和智能驾驶产业的发展进程。 投资要点： 投资主线一：信创。1）采购端：中央集 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up by 0.02%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.54% and 0.98% respectively. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 12,428.19 billion yuan [1][5]. - In terms of sector performance, the household appliances, comprehensive, and machinery equipment sectors led the gains, while non-ferrous metals, steel, and basic chemicals sectors experienced declines [1][5]. - The Hong Kong market also saw declines, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.86% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 1.09%. In the overseas markets, the Dow Jones increased by 0.25%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.16%, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.06% [1][5]. Important News - New measures for the "Two New" policy for 2025 have been announced, expanding the support for equipment updates to include electronic information, safety production, and facility agriculture sectors. Additionally, subsidies for the replacement of new energy city buses and power batteries have been increased. New subsidies for replacing old appliances such as microwaves, water purifiers, dishwashers, rice cookers, and for purchasing new mobile phones, tablets, smartwatches, and wristbands have also been introduced. Furthermore, fuel vehicles meeting the National IV emission standards are now eligible for scrapping and replacement subsidies [1][6]. - The incoming U.S. President Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to provide a legal basis for implementing widespread tariffs on allies and adversaries. The decision is not final, and the Trump team is exploring other legal avenues, including the potential use of Section 338 of U.S. trade law to support the proposed tariff policy during his campaign [2][6].

[Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 01 月 08 日 星期三 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周二 A 股三大指数集体收涨，截止收盘，沪指收涨 0.71%，深成指收 涨 1.14%，创业板指收涨 0.7%。沪深两市成交额 10764.67 亿元。申 万行业方面，电子、综合、通信领涨，医药生物、煤炭、公用事业领 跌；概念板块方面，铜缆高速连接、可控核聚变、光纤概念涨幅居前， 流感、仿制药一致性评价、减肥药跌幅居前。港股方面，恒生指数收 跌 1.22%，恒生科技指数收跌 0.92%；海外方面，美国三大指数集体 收跌，道指收跌 0.42%，标普 500 收跌 1.11%，纳指收跌 1.89%。 【重要新闻】 【英伟达 CEO 黄仁勋在 2025 年全球消费电子展发表重磅演讲，宣布 了一系列重要的技术创新】包括采用 Blackwell 架构的 RTX50 系列 GPU、AI 超级计算机、汽车智驾芯片 Thor 以及新推出的 Cosmos 世界 基础模型等。黄仁勋还公布了英伟达在汽车领域开展合作的厂商，其 中国内车厂包括比亚迪 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry, indicating a positive outlook for 2025 [3]. Core Viewpoints - The communication industry significantly outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices in 2024, ranking third among 31 primary industries [1][15]. - The valuation of the communication industry at the end of 2024 slightly increased compared to the beginning of the year, remaining within a reasonable range despite being slightly above the historical three-year average [19]. - The report identifies two core investment themes for 2025: the AI computing power industry chain and the integration of terrestrial and space systems, emphasizing the importance of technological advancements and policy support [1][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The Shenwan Communication Index rose by 28.82% in 2024, outperforming both the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices by 14.13 percentage points and 15.59 percentage points, respectively [14][15]. - The index experienced significant fluctuations throughout the year, with a notable recovery starting in mid-February due to the rising demand in the AI sector [14]. 2. Communication Industry Overview - The overall economic performance of the communication industry is stable, with telecommunications revenue reaching CNY 15,947 billion in the first 11 months of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [21][25]. - The fixed internet broadband business revenue grew by 5% year-on-year, contributing to the overall telecommunications revenue growth [25]. 3. Investment Themes - **AI Computing Power Industry Chain**: - The demand for intelligent computing is expected to accelerate, driven by advancements in AI and domestic computing infrastructure [2]. - The construction of intelligent computing centers is projected to boost server demand and increase the need for liquid cooling solutions [2]. - The demand for high-speed optical modules and the potential for domestic substitution of high-end optical chips are highlighted as key growth areas [2]. - **Integration of Terrestrial and Space Systems**: - The establishment of the Low Altitude Economy Management Office reflects the government's commitment to developing the low-altitude economy, with significant policy support anticipated [5]. - The deployment of the BeiDou navigation system is expected to accelerate, enhancing its application in various sectors [5]. - The satellite internet market is poised for growth, with significant advancements in low Earth orbit satellite deployment [5]. 4. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the acceleration of 5G applications and the dual core investment themes of AI computing power and terrestrial-space integration [6]. - Specific areas of interest include the construction of intelligent computing centers, the demand for liquid cooling servers, and the growth of the satellite internet industry [6].

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 01 月 07 日 星期二 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周一 A 股三大指数集体收跌，截止收盘，沪指收跌 0.14%，深成指收 跌 0.12%，创业板指收跌 0.09%。沪深两市成交额 10584.79 亿元。申 万行业方面，医药生物、钢铁、银行领涨，商贸零售、食品饮料、社 会服务领跌；概念板块方面，流感、禽流感、仿制药一致性评价涨幅 居前，社区团购、AI 眼镜、智能音箱跌幅居前。 港股方面，恒生指 数收跌 0.36%，恒生科技指数收跌 0.18%；海外方面，美国三大指数 涨跌不一，道指收跌 0.06%，标普 500 收涨 0.55%，纳指收涨 1.24%。 【重要新闻】 【央行明确释放稳汇率信号】接近央行人士称，由于近期海外投资者 对高等级人民币债券需求较为旺盛，央行拟于 1 月在香港新增发行离 岸人民币央行票据，预计发行规模会远超过去单次最大发行规模。中 国《金融时报》也连发两篇文章指出，央行有充足的工具箱、丰富的 经验应对人民币汇率贬值，有能力保持人民币汇率 ...

市 场 研 究 别与 8 家外资机构代表深入交流】座谈会上，与会外资机构积极评价 中国政府推进经济持续稳定发展的政策措施和坚定决心，一致认为 2024 年 9 月 26 日中央政治局会议及中央经济工作会议以来，存量政 策持续发力、增量政策陆续推出，有力稳定社会预期，国际投资者信 心得到提振。 研报精选 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 01 月 06 日 星期一 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 上周五 A 股三大指数集体收跌，截止收盘，沪指收跌 1.57%，深成指 收跌 1.89%，创业板指收跌 2.16%。沪深两市成交额 12675.97 亿元。 申万行业方面，有色金属、煤炭、石油石化领涨，商贸零售、计算机、 社会服务领跌；概念板块方面，青蒿素、仿制药一致性评价、可燃冰 涨幅居前，快手概念、MLOps 概念、社区团购跌幅居前。港股方面， 恒生指数收涨 0.7%，恒生科技指数收涨 1.05%；海外方面，美国三大 指数集体收涨，道指收涨 0.8%，标普 500 收涨 1.26%，纳指收涨 1.77%。 【重要新闻】 【 ...