[Table_RightTitle] 策略研究|策略跟踪报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

[Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2024 年 09 月 09 日 星期一 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 上周五，A 股三大股指全部收跌，上证指数跌 0.81%，报 2765.81 点， 深证成指跌 1.44%，创业板指跌 1.7%。两市 A 股成交额 5424 亿元人 民币，约 4500 股下跌。申万行业方面，仅非银金融和银行行业上涨， 美容护理行业领跌；概念板块方面，网约车、海南自贸区概念涨幅居 前。港股因台风原因休市一天。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收跌， 道指跌 1.01%，标普 500 指数跌 1.73%，纳指跌 2.55%。欧洲股市全 线下跌，亚太股市多数下跌。 【重要新闻】 【证监会发布《证监会系统离职人员入股拟上市企业监管规定（试 行）》】为进一步加强证监会系统离职人员（以下简称离职人员）入股 拟上市企业的管理，维护资本市场的公开、公平、公正，证监会发布 《证监会系统离职人员入股拟上市企业监管规定（试行）》（以下简称 《离职人员监管规定》）。《离职人员监管规定》吸纳了《2 号指引》的 主要内容，并新增三方面规定：一 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 晨会纪要 市场研究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2024 年 09 月 06 日 星期五 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】周四 A 股三大指数齐涨，上证指数涨 0.14%报 2788.31 点，深证成指涨 0.28%，创业板指涨 0.65%。沪深两市成交额 0.53 万 亿元。申万行业方面，传媒、房地产、商贸零售等领涨，煤炭、家用 电器、石油石化等领跌；概念板块方面，数字货币、电子身份证、移 动支付等上涨，中船系、氟化工概念、PVDF 概念等领跌。港股方面， 香港恒生指数收跌 0.07%报 17444.3 点，录得四连跌；恒生科技指数 涨 0.14%；海外方面，美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌 0.54%报 40755.75 点，标普 500 指数跌 0.3%报 5503.41 点，纳指涨 0.25%报 17127.66 点；欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌；亚太主要股指收盘涨跌 不一。 【重要新闻】 【国家主席习近平在中非合作论坛北京峰会开幕式上表示，未来 3 年，中方愿同非方开展中非携手推进现代化十大伙伴行 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.67% to 2784.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.51%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 0.11% [1][5] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 0.56 trillion yuan [1][5] - In the Shenwan industry classification, sectors such as electric equipment, automotive, biomedicine, and textile and apparel saw gains, while non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, and construction decoration led the declines [1][5] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index dropped by 1.1% to 17457.34 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 0.39% [1][5] - Internationally, the Dow Jones increased by 0.09% to 40974.97 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.16% and 0.3% respectively [1][5] Industry Analysis - The social service sector showed significant profit growth in the first half of 2024, with total revenue reaching 68.291 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.70%, ranking second among Shenwan's primary industries [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in the social service sector totaled 4.157 billion yuan, marking a substantial year-on-year growth of 89.08% [6] - The return on equity (ROE) in the sector continued to improve, with a decrease in expense ratios [6] - The tourism and scenic area segment reported revenue and net profit growth of 28.47% and 13.04% respectively, driven by recovering travel demand and supportive policies [6] - The hotel and catering sector saw a significant rebound, with revenue and net profit increasing by 2.60% and 44.95% respectively, as offline leisure and business demand continued to recover [6][7] - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from the recovery in travel and tourism, particularly those in the duty-free and hotel sectors that are enhancing their brand and operational efficiency [7]

[Table_RightTitle] 证券研究报告|食品饮料 [Table_Title] 渠道、产品建设成果斐然，业绩保持高增长 [Table_StockName] ——东鹏饮料（605499）点评报告 [Table_ReportDate] 2024 年 09 月 03 日 [Table_Summary] 报告关键要素: 2024 年 8 月 31 日，公司发布 2024 年半年度报告。2024 年上半年，公 司实现营收 78.73 亿元（同比+44.19%），归母净利润 17.31 亿元（同 比+56.17%），扣非归母净利润 17.07 亿元（同比+72.34%）。其中， 2024Q2 实现营收 43.91 亿元（同比+47.88%），归母净利润 10.67 亿元 （同比+74.62%），扣非归母净利润 10.82 亿元（同比+101.51%）。 证 券 研 究 报 告 公司点评报告 公司研究 3235 投资要点: ⚫ 公司 2024 年上半年营业收入高达 78.73 亿元，2024Q2 业绩增速环比明 显提升。2024 年上半年，公司实现营收 78.73 亿元（同比+44.19%）， 归母净利润 17. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry as of September 4, 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The social services sector experienced significant profit growth in the first half of 2024, with total revenue increasing by 9.70% year-on-year, ranking 6th among Shenwan's primary industries. The net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 89.08%, ranking 2nd among the same industries [6][33]. - The tourism and scenic spots sector saw a revenue increase of 28.47% and a net profit increase of 13.04% in the first half of 2024, driven by recovering demand and supportive policies [33]. - The hotel and catering sector reported a revenue growth of 2.60% and a net profit growth of 44.95%, indicating a recovery in offline leisure and business demand [33]. Summary by Sections 1. Social Services Industry Performance - The social services sector's total revenue reached 682.91 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.70% and a net profit of 41.57 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 89.08% [6][33]. - The sector's return on equity (ROE) improved to 2.65%, with a gross margin of 29.37% and a net margin of 6.75% [8][12]. 2. Subsector Performance 2.1 Tourism and Scenic Spots - The tourism and scenic spots sector achieved a revenue of 155.50 billion yuan, up 28.47% year-on-year, and a net profit of 11.46 billion yuan, up 13.04% [14][15]. - Key players like Zhongxin Tourism and Songcheng Performance showed significant revenue growth, while others like Qujiang Cultural Tourism faced substantial profit declines [14]. 2.2 Hotel and Catering - The hotel and catering sector generated 147.93 billion yuan in revenue, a 2.60% increase, and a net profit of 11.22 billion yuan, a 44.95% increase [16][19]. - Major hotel chains like Jinjiang Hotels and Shoulu Hotels reported profit recoveries, while the sector's gross margin was 33.76% [19]. 2.3 Professional Services - The professional services sector recorded a revenue of 302.51 billion yuan, an 8.57% increase, but the net profit fell by 23.34% to 16.27 billion yuan [20][21]. - The sector's gross margin was 23.22%, indicating a decline in profitability despite revenue growth [20]. 2.4 Education - The education sector's revenue was 63.81 billion yuan, a 5.41% decrease, with a net profit of 2.47 billion yuan, up 3.62% [24][25]. - The sector is undergoing adjustments, with some leading companies reducing losses while others continue to decline [24]. 2.5 Sports - The sports sector showed improvement, with Zhongti Industry's revenue growing by 78.41% and net profit increasing by 146.36% [28][29]. 2.6 Duty-Free - The duty-free sector faced a decline, with China Duty-Free's revenue down 12.81% and net profit down 15.07% [30][31]. - New policies are expected to boost the sector's performance in the future [30]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from the recovery in inbound tourism and new policies in the duty-free sector, as well as those excelling in brand development and operational efficiency in the tourism destination market [33].

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.29% to 2802.98 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.17% and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.26% [2][6] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 0.58 trillion yuan [2][6] - Key sectors leading the market included electric power equipment, computers, home appliances, and automobiles, while oil and petrochemicals, banking, and public utilities lagged behind [2][6] Market Review - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.23% to 17651.49 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.29% [2][6] - U.S. markets saw all three major indices decline, with the Dow Jones down 1.51% to 40936.93 points, the S&P 500 down 2.12% to 5528.93 points, and the Nasdaq down 3.26% to 17136.30 points, marking the largest single-day drop since August 5 [2][6] - European and Asia-Pacific indices also closed lower [2][6] Important News - The Shanghai Municipal Government released a plan to promote the replacement of consumer goods, providing significant support for personal vehicle and home appliance upgrades, including subsidies of 20,000 yuan for qualifying new energy vehicles and 15% subsidies for certain home products [3][6] - The relationship between China and Nigeria was elevated to a comprehensive strategic partnership, with both countries aiming for high-quality cooperation to achieve modernization [3][6] Company Analysis: Dongpeng Beverage (605499) - Dongpeng Beverage reported a revenue of 7.873 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 44.19%, and a net profit of 1.731 billion yuan, up 56.17% [7][8] - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.391 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 47.88%, and a net profit of 1.067 billion yuan, up 74.62% [7][8] - The company continues to implement a full-channel strategy, with significant growth in sales across various regions, particularly in the Southwest and North China regions, which saw increases of 75.57% and 99.14% respectively [8][9] Product Performance - The core product, Dongpeng Special Drink, generated sales of 6.855 billion yuan, a 33.49% increase, while Dongpeng Water saw a remarkable growth of 281.12% to 476 million yuan [8][9] - The company is transitioning from a single product focus to a multi-category beverage group, enhancing brand recognition and market presence [8][9] Financial Metrics - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 44.60%, an increase of 1.50 percentage points, driven by lower raw material costs [8][9] - The net profit margin improved to 21.98%, up 1.69 percentage points, due to effective cost control across various expense categories [8][9] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with revised profit forecasts for 2024-2026 indicating net profits of 3.094 billion, 3.916 billion, and 5.057 billion yuan respectively [8][9] - The recommendation maintains a "Buy" rating based on the company's strong performance and market expansion strategy [8][9]

[Table_InterIndex] 国际市场表现 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2024 年 09 月 03 日 星期二 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】周一A股三大指数低开低走，上证指数跌1.1%报2811.04 点，深证成指跌 2.11%，创业板指跌 2.75%。沪深两市成交额 0.71 万 亿元。申万行业方面，煤炭、银行和公共事业上涨，食饮、军工、美 容护理等领跌；概念板块方面，ST 板块、两轮车、煤炭概念等上涨， 中船系、科创次新股、国家大基金持股等领跌。港股方面，恒生指数 收跌 1.65%报 17691.97 点，恒生科技指数跌 2.08%；海外方面，美国 9 月 2 日休市。欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一，亚太主要股指收盘多数 上涨。 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨会纪要 市场研究 3235 【重要新闻】 【国务院办公厅发布关于以高水平开放推动服务贸易高质量发展的 意见】意见提出，全面实施跨境服务贸易负面清单。提升负面清单管 理能力，加强重点行业监管，优化资金、技术、人员、数据等要素跨 境流动监管。聚焦居民消费升级需求，推动 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry, indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [31]. Core Viewpoints - The communication industry index decreased by 0.50% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.33 percentage points, ranking 26th among 31 first-level industries [1][13]. - Key investment opportunities are identified in the satellite internet, data elements, and intelligent computing center sectors [1][28]. - The industry valuation is currently below historical averages, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18.36, significantly lower than the historical mean of 34.44 [17]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - **Satellite Internet**: China Satellite Network announced a plan to promote the large-scale application of the BeiDou system, focusing on governance and modern industrial capabilities [5]. - **Data Elements**: A new intelligent governance platform for data elements was launched, aiming to enhance the value of data assets through a comprehensive management service [6]. - **Satellite Navigation**: The establishment of a nationwide satellite navigation positioning benchmark network was reported, enhancing high-precision navigation services [7]. - **Terminal Security**: The first national terminal security ecological alliance was formed, indicating a shift towards collaborative efforts in the terminal security industry [9][11]. - **Intelligent Computing Center**: The largest single-cluster intelligent computing center in China was officially put into operation, significantly enhancing computational capabilities [12]. Market Review - The communication industry saw a total trading volume of 123.19 billion yuan last week, with an average daily trading volume of 24.63 billion yuan, reflecting a 14.11% increase from the previous week [19]. - Among 134 stocks in the communication sector, 99 stocks rose, indicating a positive trend with 73.88% of stocks experiencing gains [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the satellite communication industry chain, artificial intelligence computing industry chain, digital applications, and 5G construction [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer industry, indicating a projected relative increase of over 10% compared to the broader market in the next six months [32]. Core Insights - The report highlights the investment opportunities arising from innovations in AI large models, particularly in industry-specific applications. It notes a 2.77% increase in the computer industry, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.94 percentage points, ranking 9th among primary industries [1][13]. - The report emphasizes the growing interest in AI, with significant developments such as the free release of the GLM-4-Flash model by Zhipu AI and the launch of the 330 billion parameter Kunlun model by China National Petroleum, marking a first in the energy and chemical sector [6][7]. - The AI data center chip market is projected to reach $151 billion by 2029, with a current market size of approximately $78 billion [11]. - The report suggests focusing on digitalization, intelligence, and innovation-driven investments, particularly in the context of domestic AI model opportunities and the integration of smart transportation systems [29]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Zhipu AI announced the free release of the GLM-4-Flash model, supporting 26 languages and achieving a generation speed of 72.14 tokens per second [6]. - China National Petroleum launched the 330 billion parameter Kunlun model, the first approved large model in the energy sector, developed in collaboration with major tech companies [7]. - The Qwen2-VL model from Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen team can process images of any resolution without segmentation, enhancing its usability [8]. - The first lunar science multimodal model was released by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Alibaba Cloud, achieving over 80% accuracy in crater age and morphology classification [10]. - Omdia forecasts that the AI data center chip market will grow significantly, reaching $151 billion by 2029, with a slowdown expected post-2026 [11]. - Cerebras Systems introduced the fastest AI inference solution, claiming speeds 20 times faster than Nvidia's offerings [12]. Market Performance - The computer industry saw a 2.77% increase last week, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.17%, indicating strong relative performance [1][13]. - The average daily trading volume in the computer sector increased by 8.72% compared to the previous week, reaching approximately 451.91 billion yuan [18]. - Over 81.69% of stocks in the computer sector rose last week, with 290 out of 355 stocks experiencing gains [18]. Valuation - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the computer industry is 31.83, significantly below the historical average of 47.96 since 2016, indicating potential undervaluation [16]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises focusing on policy guidance and demand-driven investments, particularly in digitalization, intelligence, and innovation [29].