Investment Rating - The report gives a "Positive" investment rating for the electrical equipment industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report discusses the expected increase in lithium supply by 180,000 tons of LCE in 2025, with a focus on the supply dynamics from Chile, Argentina, and Africa [40]. - It emphasizes that the demand for lithium, particularly from the electric vehicle sector, remains optimistic despite potential uncertainties in policy and market conditions [45][52]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the production and supply chain developments in key lithium-producing regions to gauge future price movements [41][84]. Summary by Sections Supply - It is projected that 180,000 tons of LCE will be added to the lithium supply in 2025, with a significant portion coming from Chile and Argentina [40]. - Chile's lithium production is expected to reach approximately 314,000 tons in 2025, with SQM and ALB being the primary producers [11]. - Argentina's lithium production is anticipated to gradually increase, with total capacity expected to rise to 254,000 tons by 2025 [16]. - In Tibet and Qinghai, new projects are expected to contribute to supply, although progress has been slow due to regulatory and environmental challenges [20]. Demand - The report indicates that the demand for lithium, particularly from the electric vehicle market, is expected to remain strong, driven by policies and consumer preferences [45]. - In China, the "old-for-new" vehicle replacement policy has significantly boosted electric vehicle sales, with a year-on-year increase of over 50% in October 2024 [52]. - The report notes that the penetration of PHEV and EREV models is crucial for further increasing the market share of electric vehicles in China [61]. Supply-Demand Balance - The report suggests that while the lithium market may experience an oversupply in 2025, demand growth is expected to outpace supply growth, potentially leading to price rebounds [79]. - It emphasizes the need to track geopolitical and production conditions in major lithium-producing regions to understand future market dynamics [41][84]. Key Issues to Monitor - The report identifies three critical issues to watch: the continuation of the "old-for-new" policy in China, the introduction of new electric vehicle models in Europe and the U.S., and the production ramp-up of EREV models by Chinese manufacturers [73].

Investment Rating - The report rates the electric equipment industry as "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report discusses the expected increase in lithium supply, predicting an additional 180,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2025, with a focus on the supply dynamics from Chile, Argentina, and Africa [40][41] - Demand for lithium is not expected to decline significantly, with particular attention to the impact of new energy vehicle (NEV) sales in both overseas and Chinese markets [45][52] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply-demand balance and geopolitical factors affecting lithium production [40][41] Summary by Sections Supply - It is anticipated that 180,000 tons of LCE will be added in 2025, with 76% of this supply coming from Chile, Argentina, and Mali [40] - Chile's lithium production is expected to reach 314,000 tons in 2025, with SQM and ALB being the primary producers [11] - Argentina's lithium production is projected to gradually increase, with total capacity expected to rise to 254,000 tons by 2025 [16] - In Tibet and Qinghai, new projects are expected to contribute to supply, although progress has been slow [20] - Australia is expected to maintain its lithium production levels in 2025, with no significant new projects anticipated [28][32] Demand - The report highlights that NEV sales in Europe are facing challenges, while the U.S. market shows slight growth [47] - In China, the "old-for-new" vehicle policy has significantly boosted NEV sales, with a year-on-year increase of over 50% in October [52] - The report suggests that the penetration rate of NEVs in China will continue to rely on PHEV and EREV models, which are gaining popularity among consumers [61] Supply-Demand Balance - The report indicates that the global lithium market may remain in a surplus in 2025, but demand growth is expected to outpace supply growth, potentially leading to price rebounds [79] - It emphasizes the need to track inventory levels and production rates closely, as they will influence market dynamics [79] Key Issues to Monitor - The report identifies three critical issues to watch: the continuation of the "old-for-new" policy in China, the introduction of new NEV models in Europe and the U.S., and the growth of EREV models in the Chinese market [73]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Positive" for the automotive sector, indicating an expected overall sector return that exceeds the benchmark index by more than 10% [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant influence of Trump's election victory on U.S. electric vehicle (EV) policies, with potential moves to abolish tax credits and subsidies for electric vehicles [2]. - It emphasizes that the U.S. EV market is expected to grow by approximately 17% year-on-year by 2025, driven primarily by Tesla's new model releases, despite existing challenges such as cost competitiveness and charging infrastructure [3][8]. - The report notes that while the NEVI plan has made initial progress in charging infrastructure, its full impact on new vehicle sales will take time to materialize [4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The U.S. EV market is projected to face key challenges, including insufficient cost competitiveness compared to traditional vehicles, inadequate charging infrastructure, and limited product offerings [3]. - The report anticipates that the growth in the U.S. EV market will largely depend on Tesla's new models, particularly the Cybertruck, which is expected to ramp up production significantly by 2025 [8]. Policy Impact - Trump's administration is likely to reverse policies that support electric vehicles, such as the $7,500 tax credit and funding for charging stations, which were established under the Biden administration [2]. - The report suggests that Trump's support for Chinese automakers establishing factories in the U.S. may lead to limited responses from domestic manufacturers due to the long timelines and uncertainties involved [2]. Charging Infrastructure - The NEVI plan has initiated collaboration among major EV manufacturers to enhance charging infrastructure, with Tesla leading the way by opening its charging network [4]. - The report indicates that while there are initial successes in charging infrastructure development, the overall market cooling trend may delay the expected sales boost from these improvements [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Insights - Magnesium alloy has significant potential for growth due to its low density and high specific strength, making it advantageous for lightweight applications in the automotive sector [2][18] - Traditional magnesium alloys have limited applications in vehicles due to poor corrosion resistance, with typical usage around 15 kg per vehicle [3][19] - Recent advancements in new stainless magnesium alloys have greatly improved corrosion resistance and processing capabilities, opening new opportunities for application in the automotive industry [4][31] Summary by Sections 1. Lightweight Advantages of Magnesium Alloys - Magnesium alloys are lighter and have a higher specific strength compared to common materials like aluminum and steel, with a density of approximately 1.74 g/cm³ [18] - The excellent casting performance of magnesium alloys supports their use in complex automotive components [18] 2. Traditional Applications of Magnesium Alloys in Automobiles - The typical usage of magnesium alloys in vehicles is around 15 kg, primarily in non-corrosive areas such as instrument panel supports and seat frames [19][25] - Hyundai has successfully reduced the weight of seat frames by 50% by using magnesium alloys instead of traditional steel [19] 3. Technological Breakthroughs in Magnesium Alloys - Traditional magnesium alloys suffer from poor corrosion resistance and ductility, limiting their widespread application [27][30] - New stainless magnesium alloys developed by Chinalco show corrosion resistance 10 to 50 times better than conventional magnesium alloys, without significantly increasing costs [31] - The new alloys also exhibit improved ductility, enhancing their formability for mass production [35] 4. Potential New Applications for Stainless Magnesium Alloys - The new alloys are expected to be used in electric vehicle components, such as battery and motor housings, which could significantly reduce weight [36][39] - If 10% of the structural components in a vehicle are replaced with magnesium alloys, the potential usage could reach around 40 kg [39] - The overall potential usage of magnesium alloys in vehicles could increase to approximately 145 kg, representing a tenfold increase from traditional applications [42] 5. Market Potential for Magnesium Alloys - The potential market size for magnesium alloys in the automotive sector could reach 2.3 million tons annually, based on the projected increase in usage [42]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - Magnesium alloy has significant potential for growth due to its low density and high specific strength, making it an advantageous lightweight metal in the automotive sector [2] - Traditional magnesium alloys have limited applications in vehicles due to poor corrosion resistance, with an average usage of about 15 kg per vehicle [3][19] - Recent advancements in new stainless magnesium alloys have greatly improved corrosion resistance and reduced costs, opening new opportunities for application in automotive lightweighting [4][26] Summary by Sections 1. Lightweight Advantages of Magnesium Alloys - Magnesium alloys are lighter and have a higher specific strength compared to common materials like aluminum and steel, with a density of approximately 1.74 g/cm³ [18] - The excellent casting performance of magnesium alloys allows for their use in complex structural components in vehicles [18] 2. Traditional Applications of Magnesium Alloys in Automobiles - The primary applications of magnesium alloys in vehicles include components such as steering wheels, instrument panel supports, and seat frames, primarily in non-corrosive environments [19][23] - The estimated usage of magnesium alloys in traditional applications is around 15 kg per vehicle [25] 3. Technological Breakthroughs - Traditional magnesium alloys suffer from poor corrosion resistance and ductility, limiting their widespread use [27][30] - New stainless magnesium alloys have shown corrosion resistance improvements of 10 to 50 times compared to conventional magnesium alloys, achieved without significantly increasing costs [31] - The new alloys also exhibit enhanced ductility, allowing for better forming capabilities, which is crucial for mass production in the automotive industry [35] 4. Potential New Applications for New Stainless Magnesium Alloys - The new alloys are expected to find applications in electric vehicle components, such as battery and motor housings, which could significantly reduce weight [36][39] - The potential single vehicle usage of magnesium alloys could reach approximately 145 kg, representing a tenfold increase from current levels [42] - The overall potential market size for magnesium alloys in the automotive sector could exceed 2.3 million tons annually, based on current production levels [42]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The cancellation of export tax rebates for copper and aluminum materials will significantly impact the majority of export products in these categories, with aluminum exports affected by 99% and copper exports by 86% [2][12] - The cancellation of tax rebates is expected to reduce copper demand by approximately 1.4% and aluminum production by around 8% [3][17] - The policy is likely to benefit leading companies by accelerating industry capacity clearance, while midstream processing companies may experience short-term profit suppression but can adjust through repricing and increasing processing ratios [5][25] Summary by Sections Export Tax Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum and copper materials effective December 1, 2024 [1][11] - The affected aluminum products include 24 tax codes, while copper products include 34 tax codes [11] Impact on Export Volumes - In the first nine months of 2024, China's aluminum exports reached 4.6602 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18%, with the affected products accounting for 462 million tons [2][17] - For copper, the export volume was 612,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%, with the affected products making up 524,000 tons [2][12] Demand and Price Dynamics - The cancellation of tax rebates is expected to lead to a 1-2% decrease in copper demand, with a projected drop in copper exports by 210,000 tons in 2025 [3][13] - The aluminum industry, having a production capacity of 63.034 million tons in 2023, will see a significant impact on aluminum foil and aluminum plate exports, which account for 31% and 25% of total production, respectively [3][17] Industry Outlook - The cancellation of export tax rebates may lead to a temporary increase in domestic prices due to reduced export incentives, but long-term recovery in export volumes is anticipated as companies adjust to the new policy [5][26] - The policy may also shift some companies from general trade to processing trade, potentially stabilizing the supply-demand relationship in the industry [26]

证券研究报告|行业周报 2024/11/19 电气设备行业 投资评级 看好 澳矿停产叠加1 2月锂电排产超预期，碳酸锂价格上行 五矿证券研究所 新能源行业 分析师：张斯恺 登记编码：S0950523110002 邮箱：zhangsikai@wkzq.com.cn 联系人：钟林志 邮箱：zhonglinzhi@wkzq.com.cn 分析师：张鹏 登记编码：S0950523070001 邮箱：zhangpeng1@wkzq.com.cn 联系人：顾思捷 邮箱：gusj@wkzq.com.cn 分析师：蔡紫豪 登记编码：S0950523070002 邮箱：caizihao@wkzq.com.cn 分析师：张娜威 登记编码： S0950524070001 邮箱： zhangnawei@wkzq.com.cn Contents 目录 01 新能源产业趋势点评 02 产业动态&数据跟踪 l 能源金属 电池及材料 新能源车 光伏/风电 储能/电网 电力（新能源/传统能源） 03 附录 l 行业指数涨跌幅 细分板块行情回顾 01 新能源产业趋势点评 珍惜有限 创造无限 4 新能源产业趋势点评（2024年11月2日-11月1 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the automotive industry as "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The "Old-for-New" policy has effectively stimulated demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs), leading to a recovery in domestic passenger car retail sales [2][4] - From January to October 2024, domestic passenger car retail sales reached 17.829 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [2] - The retail sales growth rate of domestic passenger cars turned positive in September 2024, following a decline earlier in the year [2][4] Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicle Market - Over 60% of the "Old-for-New" subsidy applications are for NEVs, with retail sales growth of new energy passenger cars surpassing that of 2023 [4] - From January to October 2024, retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 8.331 million units, with a year-on-year growth rate of 39.7%, exceeding the full-year growth rate of 37% in 2023 [4] - The trend towards larger and higher-end vehicles is evident, with B-class and C-class cars accounting for approximately 42% of sales from January to September 2024 [4][6] Market Dynamics - The average transaction price of B-class and C-class vehicles has shown a significant decline due to intense price competition among automakers [7] - The market share of domestic brands has expanded, with the market share of independent brands reaching 59% from January to September 2024 [11] Competitive Landscape - The report highlights that first-tier joint venture brands are facing challenges, with second-tier brands experiencing significant declines in market share [27] - The sales of joint venture brands have accelerated their decline in 2024, with major players like GAC Honda and GAC Toyota seeing cumulative growth rates of -29% and -24% respectively in the first three quarters [28] Infrastructure and Technology - The charging infrastructure is expected to exceed the target of 12 million units by 2025, with approximately 11.776 million charging units in place as of September 2024 [21] - The average battery capacity of new energy passenger vehicles has slightly decreased, impacting the battery installation volume by approximately 11 GWh [14] Future Trends - By 2025, more automakers are expected to launch plug-in hybrid and range-extended models, with a notable shift away from pure electric models [18] - The report anticipates that the proportion of pure electric vehicles will continue to decline, with the share dropping to 57.6% in the first ten months of 2024 [14]

Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the electrical equipment industry as **Positive**, indicating an expectation of overall sector returns outperforming the benchmark index by more than 10% [5] Core Viewpoints - **Perovskite solar cells** are seen as a key direction for future photovoltaic technology due to their higher theoretical conversion efficiency (33% for single-junction and 45% for tandem cells) and lower projected costs (0.5-0.6 RMB/W) compared to crystalline silicon cells [1] - Perovskite technology is still in the early stages of industrialization, with challenges in stability and manufacturing processes needing to be addressed for large-scale production [2] - **Tandem cells** (four-terminal and two-terminal) are highlighted as a significant advancement, with four-terminal tandem cells expected to industrialize faster due to simpler processes, while two-terminal tandem cells are seen as a mid-term solution, and all-perovskite tandem cells as the ultimate goal [3] - Both **non-silicon** and **crystalline silicon** companies are entering the perovskite field, with non-silicon companies pioneering the technology and silicon companies focusing on tandem cell development to enhance their existing silicon-based products [4] Summary by Sections 1. Perovskite Solar Cell Development Potential - Perovskite solar cells are part of the third generation of photovoltaic technologies, offering higher efficiency and lower costs compared to first-generation crystalline silicon and second-generation thin-film technologies [9] - The theoretical efficiency of perovskite single-junction cells is 31%, with tandem cells reaching up to 45%, significantly higher than the 29% limit of crystalline silicon cells [13] - Perovskite production costs are projected to be around 0.5-0.6 RMB/W, nearly half the cost of crystalline silicon cells, with lower investment requirements (5 billion RMB/GW compared to 9-11 billion RMB/GW for silicon) [14][15] 2. Challenges in Perovskite Industrialization - The main obstacles to perovskite industrialization are **material stability** and **large-area manufacturing** [16] - Perovskite cells currently have shorter lifespans compared to crystalline silicon cells, primarily due to degradation caused by light, heat, water, and oxygen [16][18] - Large-area manufacturing is challenging due to difficulties in achieving uniform crystallization, which affects conversion efficiency [19] 3. Efficiency Improvement Pathways - **Tandem cells** are a key strategy for improving efficiency, with four-terminal tandem cells expected to industrialize faster due to simpler processes, while two-terminal tandem cells are more complex but offer structural advantages [3][32] - **Additive engineering**, **interface optimization**, and **optical performance enhancement** are critical for improving the efficiency of single-junction perovskite cells [30] - All-perovskite tandem cells are considered the ultimate solution due to their high theoretical efficiency and low cost, but stability issues with narrow-bandgap perovskites remain a challenge [37] 4. Competitive Landscape and Industry Integration - Non-silicon companies like **GCL Photoelectric**, **Xinneng Photoelectric**, and **CATL** are leading the development of perovskite technology, while traditional silicon companies like **LONGi Green Energy** and **JinkoSolar** are focusing on tandem cell development [4][39][41] - Silicon companies may acquire non-silicon perovskite companies to accelerate industry integration and leverage their technological advancements [4][49] - The collaboration between silicon and non-silicon companies is expected to drive the industrialization of perovskite technology, with four-terminal tandem cells being a common focus [47][48] 5. Market Projections - The perovskite solar cell market is projected to reach **200 GW** by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 191%, corresponding to a market size of **100 billion RMB** [38]

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant economic benefits of the tungsten recycling industry, while also noting that the profitability of recycling operations remains low due to high procurement costs and market price fluctuations [1][2][22] Summary by Sections Section 1: Special Topic on Tungsten Recycling - Recycled tungsten accounts for approximately 35% of global tungsten raw material supply, impacting the supply-demand dynamics and helping to mitigate excessive consumption of tungsten mines [1][22] - The economic value of waste tungsten is primarily determined by its tungsten content, with higher content leading to better economic returns [15] - The recycling rate of tungsten is influenced by the product type and consumption structure, with cutting tools showing the highest recovery rates [17] - The overall recycling rate is dynamic and affected by economic factors, such as the price of tungsten raw materials [18] - There is a mismatch between the industrial benefits of recycled tungsten and the economic benefits for companies, leading to a general trend of low profitability in metal recycling [22] Section 2: Market Updates (November 3 - November 8, 2024) - Precious metals experienced price pressure following the U.S. elections, with gold prices declining by 1.79% and silver by 7.24% [3] - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are expected to maintain high profitability, while lead and zinc prices are fluctuating [3] - Tungsten market prices have seen a slight increase, but the willingness of stockholders to offer discounts remains weak [3] Section 3: Macro Trends and Industry Dynamics - The report discusses macroeconomic trends and industry dynamics affecting the non-ferrous metals sector, including the impact of economic policies and market conditions on metal prices [3][30] Section 4: Metal Prices and Sector Performance - The report provides a detailed analysis of weekly price changes for various metals, indicating fluctuations in both precious and industrial metals [3][30]