Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the antimony industry, suggesting a potential phase of price stabilization due to supply constraints and demand fluctuations [1][39]. Core Insights - Antimony prices have surged significantly, with domestic antimony ingot prices nearing 160,000 yuan per ton, reflecting an annual increase of 89% [1][10]. - The supply of antimony is expected to face challenges in the near term, primarily due to reduced domestic production and logistical issues with Russian raw materials [1][39]. - The demand for antimony, particularly in flame retardants, has shown improvement, although short-term demand from the photovoltaic glass sector may be impacted by production cuts [1][29][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Antimony Price Trends - The antimony price has increased significantly, with a reported annual growth of 89%, driven by supply constraints and increased demand [1][10]. - Domestic antimony ore production has declined, while imports from Myanmar have exceeded expectations [12][14]. - The report highlights that the production from Polar Gold has increased significantly, but a decrease is anticipated in 2024 due to higher stripping ratios and reduced high-antimony ore availability [19][20]. 2. Demand Dynamics - The demand for antimony in flame retardants has improved, with production from major companies showing growth [29]. - However, the photovoltaic glass sector has experienced a production slowdown, which may temporarily dampen antimony demand [33]. - The report notes that while the overall demand for antimony remains strong, the recent production cuts in the photovoltaic glass industry could lead to a short-term decline in antimony consumption [29][33]. 3. Supply and Price Outlook - The report suggests that the supply of antimony may strengthen in the second half of the year, but the actual realization of this supply will depend on price dynamics [39]. - The anticipated release of accumulated raw material inventories from Russia is expected to suppress upward price momentum for antimony [39]. - Overall, the report concludes that the antimony market may be at a critical juncture, with insufficient upward price momentum expected for the remainder of the year [39].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The merger between Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities is a significant event in China's capital market, marking the largest A+H dual-market merger in history and setting a precedent for future mergers in the securities industry [9][10] - The policy environment encourages the creation of "aircraft carrier-level" securities firms to enhance China's financial strength and global competitiveness [3][10] - The combined entity of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities will lead the industry in total assets, net assets, number of branches, investment banking net income, and net interest income, positioning it as a flagship securities firm [15][3] Summary by Sections Merger Overview - On September 5, Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities announced a suspension of trading to plan a major asset restructuring, involving a stock swap to absorb Haitong Securities [2][8] - This merger is expected to enhance Guotai Junan's branch network, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta region, and significantly increase trading volumes [15][3] Policy Context - Since 2019, regulatory bodies have encouraged mergers and acquisitions among top securities firms to create competitive financial institutions capable of rivaling global investment banks [10][11] - The merger aligns with national goals to strengthen state-owned enterprises and optimize resource allocation within the financial sector [4][16] Financial Metrics - Post-merger, Guotai Junan's total assets and net assets will reach approximately 1,679.99 billion and 348.18 billion respectively, making it the largest in the industry [15] - The report highlights that while the merger enhances asset management scale and income, it still lags behind CITIC Securities in certain areas [15][3] Future Outlook - The merger is seen as a model for future consolidations in the securities industry, with expectations of increased market concentration and further mergers among firms with shared control [4][16] - The report suggests monitoring mergers among securities firms under the same controlling entity and those that complement each other's business and regional strengths [4][16]

[Table_Main] 新材料：凛冬已过春不远 报告要点 2024H1 行业整体业绩延续下降趋势，Q2 业绩环比显著改善，行业经营或已 触底回升，而行业 PE 处于历史低位，可静待花开。 H1 新材料行业营收和归母净利继续下降。2024H1，行业营收同比下降 6.6%， 归母净利同比下降 18.5%，平均毛利率同比保持不变。2024H1，新材料行业 平均 PE 为 37，处于历史的 28%分位。 Q2 新材料行业营收、归母净利环比显著上升。2024Q2，行业营收环比上升 18.5%，同比下降 0.5%；归母净利环比上升 44.2%，同比下降 2.1%；平均毛 利率为环比下降 0.1 个百分点，同比上升 0.5 个百分点。 2024Q2 和 H1 能源汽车结构材料（铝合金、镁合金）行业营收增长最快，股 价涨幅也居前。近年来轻量化合金行业（铝合金、镁合金）受到国家产业政策 的鼓励和支持，汽车轻量化零部件和结构件需求旺盛，行业内公司积极开拓 市场、创新技术、扩大应用，产量增长是收入增长的主要因素。 2024Q2 和 H1 粉体材料及 3D 打印行业盈利表现亮眼。下游半导体和消费电 子行业需求回暖、受 AI 浪潮催 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the high-end manufacturing industry, particularly in sectors like shipbuilding and engineering machinery, which continue to benefit from equipment upgrades [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the export chain as a key direction for future manufacturing, noting that while there is some divergence in performance, the underlying value of export chain companies remains significant [11][12]. - It highlights the opportunities for mining equipment companies due to energy transition, declining ore grades, and overseas expansion, with a notable increase in export value [11][57]. - The report also points out the potential for platform companies to leverage synergies across product lines to navigate economic cycles effectively [11]. Summary by Sections Section: Export Chain Value - The report discusses the recent decline in overseas revenue growth for engineering machinery and forklifts, attributing it to high base effects and trade tensions, but remains optimistic about the export chain's inherent value [11]. - It notes that the Belt and Road Initiative continues to drive strong demand in certain regions [11]. Section: Mining Equipment Opportunities - Mining machinery exports reached $2.898 billion from January to July 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [11][57]. - Major global mining equipment companies reported stable new orders, although some experienced declines in equipment orders [11][57]. Section: Engineering Machinery Performance - In July, engineering machinery exports amounted to $4.39 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [48]. - Excavator sales reached 13,700 units, with domestic sales up by 21.9% and overseas sales slightly down by 0.5% [48]. Section: Forklift Market Insights - Forklift sales in July totaled 103,700 units, with exports increasing by 21.7% [44]. - The report highlights mixed performance among major forklift manufacturers, with some experiencing declines in orders [44]. Section: Industrial Data Tracking - The report tracks various industrial metrics, noting a 4% increase in industrial enterprise profit growth in China for the first seven months of 2024 [21]. - It also mentions a 3.7% increase in inventory growth, indicating a stable industrial environment [21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [5] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of port duty-free sales and the implementation of new policies for city duty-free shops, despite facing challenges in its Hainan operations [7] - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 was 31.265 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.81% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.283 billion yuan, down 15.07% year-on-year [1][2] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with expected net profits of 6.2 billion yuan, 7.2 billion yuan, and 8.6 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to ongoing pressures in the Hainan duty-free business [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company's revenue from Hainan and Shanghai was 16.785 billion yuan and 8.5 billion yuan respectively, with Hainan's revenue down 28.97% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 33.87%, an increase of 1.03 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.83%, a decrease of 2.54 percentage points year-on-year [3] Market Opportunities - The new city duty-free shop policies are expected to enhance the company's growth prospects, with several cities set to establish new duty-free shops [4] - The company is focusing on improving service offerings to capitalize on the anticipated growth in the duty-free market [4] Profitability Outlook - The company has seen improvements in gross profit margins due to a higher proportion of mid-to-high-end product sales, although overall sales performance has pressured net profit margins [3] - The projected earnings per share for 2024 is 2.985 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.44 [9]

单月钢招量创新高，钼价长期看好 事件描述 据亿览网消息，2024 年 8 月国内下游钢厂钼铁招标量达 14600 吨，创年内 新高。 事件点评 钢招维持高景气，单月招标量创年内新高。据亿览网消息，2024 年 8 月国内 下游钢厂钼铁招标量达 14600 吨，创年内新高，2024 年 1-8 月钢招总量为 9.8 万吨，同比增长 19%，8 月属于市场相对淡季但钢招量反而创新高，显示 钼下游需求旺盛。 造船、化工、风电领域需求良好，国内制造业加速转型升级。钼主要用于合金 钢、不锈钢、工具钢和铸铁，是制造业升级重要添加剂，终端需求主要在造 船、油气、汽车、石化、风电等领域。据电力企业联合会数据，24 年 1-7 月 国内风电实现新增装机容量 29.91GW，同比+13.68%，其中 7 月实现风电新 增装机 4.07GW，同比+22.59%。据工信部和统计局数据，今年上半年国内造 船完工量同比增长 18.4%，今年 1-7 月化工行业固定投资同比增长 9.9% ，终 端需求保持高景气。 紫金下调 25 年钼产量指引，钼矿供给维持刚性。今年 5 月紫金矿业发布公 告，预计 2025 年矿产钼产量为 1 万吨，较今 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the industry, with a rating of "看好" (positive) as of September 5, 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The monthly bidding volume for molybdenum iron from domestic steel mills reached a record high of 14,600 tons in August 2024, indicating strong downstream demand despite being a relatively off-peak season [1][3]. - The total bidding volume for the first eight months of 2024 was 98,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19% [1][3]. - The demand for molybdenum is robust in sectors such as shipbuilding, chemicals, and wind power, driven by the accelerated transformation and upgrading of domestic manufacturing [1][5]. - Molybdenum is primarily used in alloy steel, stainless steel, tool steel, and cast iron, making it a crucial additive for manufacturing upgrades [1][5]. - The price of molybdenum concentrate remains high, with a price of 3,680 yuan per ton as of August 30, 2024, which is 66% of the 2023 peak price of 5,570 yuan per ton, indicating significant price elasticity [1][10]. - The report anticipates that with the arrival of the traditional peak season, the demand for steel bidding will remain strong, and molybdenum prices are expected to maintain high levels [1][10]. Summary by Sections Steel Bidding Volume - In August 2024, the domestic steel mills' bidding volume for molybdenum iron reached 14,600 tons, a new high for the year [1][3]. - The total bidding volume from January to August 2024 was 98,000 tons, up 19% year-on-year [1][3]. Demand in Manufacturing - The demand in high-end manufacturing sectors such as shipbuilding and chemicals is strong, with shipbuilding completion volume increasing by 18.4% year-on-year in the first half of the year [5]. - Fixed investment in the chemical industry grew by 9.9% year-on-year from January to July 2024, indicating sustained high demand [5]. Molybdenum Pricing and Supply - Molybdenum concentrate prices are currently high, with significant price elasticity due to low downstream cost proportions [10]. - The report notes that the supply of molybdenum is expected to remain rigid, with limited global supply growth anticipated [1].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 [Table_Main] 英伟达数据中心业务持续高增，华为 2024 上半年业绩亮眼 报告要点 英伟达 FY2025Q2 财报亮眼，数据中心业务领跑。8 月 29 日，英伟达发布 2025 财年第二财季报告。FY2025Q2，公司实现营收 300.4 亿美元，同比增 长 122%，环比增长 15%；GAAP 净利润 165.99 亿美元，同比增长 168%， 环比增长 12%；非 GAAP 净利润 169.52 亿美元，同比增长 152%，环比增 长 11%。英伟达的数据中心业务是主要驱动力，实现营收 263 亿美元，同比 增长 154%，环比增长 16%，占公司第二财季总营收的 87.5%；游戏收入 29 亿美元，同比增长 16%，环比增长 9%；专业视觉收入 4.54 亿美元，同比增 长 20%，环比增长 6%；汽车和机器人收入 3.46 亿美元，同比增长 37%，环 比增长 5%。英伟达 Blackwell 芯片因生产问题预计在 2024 年 4 季度开始量 产出货。公司预计 FY2025Q3 营收为 325 亿美元（上下浮动 2%）；GAAP 和非 GAAP 毛利率非别为 ...

[Table_Main] 锑系列深度二：供给告别"宽松时代" [Table_Invest] 有色金属 报告要点 全球地壳丰度与资源储量集中格局，共同决定了锑资源目前紧缺前提。全球 锑储采比仅 24 年（中国仅 16 年）。其稀缺度胜过四大战略金属中其它（钨、 锡、稀土）三个品种。储量格局上，全球呈现中、俄、玻三国占据半壁江山的 高集中度特征。我国锑资源则聚集在湖南、广西、贵州、云南四省。 复盘锑供给，一去难复返的"宽松时代"。复盘锑产业的二十年产量趋势，全 球锑产量整体呈现先升后降趋势。全球锑产量从 2004 年 11.3 万吨，攀升到 2008 年 19.7 万吨，随后 2017 产量整体下降到 13.7 万吨。供给周期大幅波 动的背后，是我国锑产业"透支式"生产——2023 年，我国锑储量占全球 29.5%，产量占全球 48.12%，十年分别下降 22.2PCTS /29.78PCTS，侧面 印证我国锑资源优势地位不断下滑。 供给展望，难言乐观： 1） 短期展望：23 年展望中，极地黄金针对奥林匹亚矿山公司 24 年金矿产量 并不乐观，主要因奥林匹亚达加工的矿石品位下滑。其次 23 年的配额为 过往若干年 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the "Belt and Road" initiative and platform enterprises as key investment opportunities in the high-end manufacturing sector [3]. Core Insights - The automation sector shows unexpected stability in gross margins, with a gross margin of 29.9% in Q2 2024, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating resilience despite product structure adjustments [9][13]. - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing performance pressure due to high base effects, but significant improvement is expected in the second half of 2024 as low base effects come into play [9][21]. - The coal machinery sector remains stable, with high growth in overseas spare parts revenue, while the photovoltaic equipment sector is awaiting a turning point despite high revenue growth in Q2 2024 [9][38]. Summary by Sections Automation Sector - In Q2 2024, the automation sector's sample companies achieved a revenue growth of 8% year-on-year, with a net profit decline of 12% year-on-year [13][19]. - Comprehensive enterprises performed best with a revenue increase of 21% year-on-year and a net profit decline of 8% year-on-year [13]. - The sector's overall market size in the first half of 2024 was approximately 147.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year [13]. Engineering Machinery Sector - The engineering machinery sector's revenue in Q2 2024 was 75.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1% but an increase of 11% quarter-on-quarter [21][23]. - The overseas revenue growth for the sector has declined, with a 14% increase noted in the first half of 2024, particularly in Belt and Road countries [9][23]. - The gross margin for the engineering machinery sector in Q2 2024 was reported at 26.0% [23]. Coal Machinery Sector - The coal machinery sector achieved stable performance with a net profit growth of 12% year-on-year in Q2 2024 [27]. - The sector's focus on overseas spare parts has been identified as a high-growth segment [9]. Photovoltaic Equipment Sector - The photovoltaic equipment sector reported a revenue increase of 46% year-on-year in Q2 2024, with a net profit growth of 3% [38]. - Key companies in this sector, such as Maiwei and Jiejia, have seen revenue growth exceeding 50% [38].