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[2024 Table_IndustryInfo 年 06 月 29 日 ] 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•医药生物 医药行业周报(6.24-6.28) 关注医药 Q2 业绩预期 [行情回顾: Table_Summary 本周医药生物指数下跌 ] 3.48%,跑输沪深 300 指数 2.51 个百分 点,行业涨跌幅排名第 28。2024 年初以来至今,医药行业下跌 21.09%,跑 输沪深 300 指数 21.98 个百分点,行业涨跌幅排名第 27。本周医药行业估值 水平(PE-TTM)为 24 倍,相对全部 A 股溢价率为 79.96% (-4.21pp),相对剔 除银行后全部 A 股溢价率为 30.09% (-2.32pp),相对沪深 300 溢价率为 109.17% (-7.37pp)。本周相对表现最好的是血液制品,下跌 0.8%。 "减肥药"产业链公司捷报频发。6 月 25 日,诺和诺德司美格鲁肽减重领域 适应症(产品诺和盈)在国内获批,同时恒瑞医药在 2024 ADA 大会公布 GLP-1R/GIPR 激动剂 HRS9531 治疗不伴糖尿病的肥胖成年患者的 II 期研究 结果,信达生物公 ...

电网设备出海专题报告 海外需求持续高景气,国内企业出海加速 西南证券研究发展中心 电力设备与新能源团队 2024年6月 www.swsc.com.cn 核心观点 海外用电需求持续增长,驱动电网设备市场发展。由于可再生能源发电占比提升以及AI发展带动数据中心建设增长,对电 网建设提出更高要求。IEA预测2050年全球用电需求有望达54万亿千瓦时,较2021年增长一倍。2023-2030年间,全球电 网年均投资额有望提升至约5000-5500亿美元。中国电网基础设施完善,技术设备领先,以"一带一路"沿线国家为基本 盘,积极响应欧美市场需求,电网设备出海规模有望持续增长。 变压器:海外供需紧张,内资出海布局加快。GMI预计全球变压器市场由2023年的588亿美元增长至2032年的1095亿美 元,2024-2032年CAGR为7.2%。需求端:由于欧美新能源、数据中心发展较快,且电网设备老旧严重,因此变压器需求 更盛。供给端:海外本土厂商产能紧缺且扩产较慢,因此变压器交付周期从22年初的75周延长至23年末的120周,短期供 需失衡导致进口变压器量价齐升。中国变压器市场产能过剩,厂商纷纷加速出海,2023年中国变压 ...

关注医药 Q2 业绩预期 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | 表 2: 上周推荐组合表现情况 | | | | 表 3: 上周稳健组合表现情况……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………3 | | | | 表 4: 上周科创板组合表现情况 | | | | 表 5: 上周港股组合表现情况… | | | | 袁 6: 2024/6/24-2024/6/28 医药行业及个股涨跌愉情况. | | | | 表 7: 陆港通 2024/6/2 ...

2024 年 06 月 30 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•机械设备 机器人行业周报(0624-0630) 科大讯飞发布星火 V4.0 模型,安培龙推出机器人力矩传感器 行情回顾: [Table_Summary 本周(6]月 24日-6月 30日)机器人指数跑输大盘。中证机器人指 数下跌 2.0%,跑输上证指数 1.0个百分点,跑输沪深 300指数约 1.0个百分点, 跑赢创业板指约 2.1个百分点;国证机器人指数下跌 2.3%,跑输上证指数 1.2 个百分点,跑输沪深 300指数约 1.3个百分点,跑赢创业板指约 1.9个百分点。 成都人形机器人创新中心发布中国首个基于视觉扩散架构的人形机器人任务 生成式模型。6月 24日,成都人形机器人创新中心发布了中国首个基于视觉扩 散架构的人形机器人任务生成式模型 R-DDPRM,该模型具有同时确定拿起物 体的最佳抓持位姿、移动物体最佳路线、能耗最少最佳等多要素全局规划思维 能力,而且能够在人为破坏任务进程时迅速进行决策修正和调整执行方式,接 续完成任务。 科大讯飞发布星火 V4.0模型,多项测试中排名第一。6月 27日,科大讯飞发 布讯飞星火大模型 ...

新消费迎发展机遇，日元持续贬值引关注 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 的 1 录 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 1 一周大事记 （1）财政收入仍待修复，土地出让金降幅扩大 点评：从收入看，1-5 月，全国税收收入约 8.05 万亿元，同比下降 5.1%，非税收入约 1.65 万亿元，同比增长 10.3%，非税收入增长较快。从主要税种表现来看，大部分税种同比 下降，仅消费税、进口货物增值税等实现正增长。其中，国内增值税同比下降 6.1%，企业 所得税同比下降 1.7%，个人所得税同比下降 6%，证券交易印花税同比下降 50.8%，契税同 比下降 8.7%，而进口货物增值税同比增长 1.5%，国内消费税增长 7.2%。从支出看，除卫 生健康支出、交通运输支出外同比增速均为正增长，其中增长最快的是农林水支出、城乡社 区支出、债务付息支出，分别同比增长 12%、9.5%和 7.3%。5 月单月，交通运输、农林水 事务和社会保障和就业支出在当月增长较快，分别实现 9.5%、9%和 8.3%的同比增速，而 科学技术、教育支出同比由上月上涨转为下降，卫生健康支出同比降幅扩大。从政府性基金 收支来看，1-5 月，全国政府性 ...

西南证券研究发展中心 策略团队程睿智 2024年6月 二、全球经济的逆风之下的风险点 宏大叙事主题化 宏观经济系统中通胀状态有三个区间，类似 图中通胀的变化率是通胀读数的三次函数： ③ 通缩正反馈区间II：通缩越强，需求越 美国宏观拐点交易简要回顾 宏大叙事主题化阶段，系统负反馈时滞缩短 一、宏大叙事主题化下的当前市场窘境 1 对于周期拐点的判断不断受挫之时，市场倾向于选择宏大叙事作为炒作逻辑，但宏大叙事短期很难证伪，所以只 能变为主题化炒作，变成"故事很大，行情很短"的状态。 ② 通胀正反馈区间I：通胀越高，需求越强； 通缩-通胀机制转换 2 -40 202 2.10 通胀见顶后加速回落：第一次fed put交易， 美债利率下的同时美股走高； 202 3.9 QRA超预期，叠加经济数据超预期，引领一波 降息预期修正与长端利率修复，以熊陡修复期限利差， 压缩金融机构潜在风险； 202 4.2 通胀下行受阻，降息预期重新收敛，期间联储 和财政部均不再重新引导过于鹰派预期，5月fomc超预 期QT taper，放宽银行资本要求，增加国债需求，减 少长端失控上行风险； 美国经济意外指数vs降息预期（%） -2.3 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Top Group (601689) with a target price of 73.50 CNY over the next six months [1][3]. Core Insights - Top Group is a leading platform-based automotive parts company that has successfully expanded its product lines beyond traditional interior and rubber damping products, which now account for only 55% of its revenue. The company has capitalized on opportunities in the new energy vehicle sector and has seen rapid growth since 2020, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.5% in total revenue and 47.4% in net profit from 2019 to 2021 [2][3][26]. - The company is focusing on three growth curves: lightweight and thermal management systems, which have increased their revenue share to 39%, and automotive electronics and drive actuators, which are expected to significantly boost revenue in the coming years [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1983, Top Group has been a key player in the automotive parts industry for nearly four decades, specializing in NVH damping systems, interior and exterior systems, lightweight components, chassis systems, smart cockpit parts, thermal management systems, air suspension systems, and intelligent driving systems [14][17]. Company Analysis - The company has successfully diversified its product offerings, with traditional damping and interior components now making up 33% and 22% of revenue, respectively, as of 2023. The lightweight chassis system has become the second-largest business segment, contributing 31% of revenue in 2023 [2][28]. - The automotive electronics segment has seen a CAGR of 8.5% from 2019 to 2023, with expectations for substantial growth as new products enter mass production in 2024 [2][3]. Financial Analysis - The company is projected to achieve a CAGR of 26.7% in net profit from 2024 to 2026, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to reach 2.45 CNY in 2024, 3.00 CNY in 2025, and 3.76 CNY in 2026. The corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are 24, 20, and 16, respectively [3][4]. - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at 197.01 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 35.02%, and net profit is expected to be 21.51 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 26.50% [4][26]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report anticipates a target PE of 30 for 2024, leading to a target price of 73.50 CNY for the stock [3][4].

Group 1 - The report discusses Japan's transition from a deflationary to an inflationary environment, highlighting the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) recent monetary policy normalization, which includes raising interest rates and ending negative interest rate policies [67][99][106] - It notes that the proportion of companies in Japan choosing to raise prices has reached a record high, indicating a shift in pricing strategies among businesses [2][105] - The report emphasizes that inflation expectations among households and businesses are at their highest levels historically, suggesting a significant change in the economic landscape [2][105] Group 2 - The normalization of monetary policy is linked to the re-emergence of debt divergence risks within the yen pricing framework, which could impact the exchange rate dynamics [57][99][106] - The report introduces a dual-factor pricing model for USDJPY, indicating that the debt divergence risk index and the yield spread between US and Japanese 10-year bonds are significant explanatory variables for the exchange rate [19][20][99] - It highlights that the relationship between debt divergence risk and the yen has shifted, with higher debt divergence risk now negatively impacting the yen in a normal inflation environment, contrasting with previous periods of prolonged deflation [20][57][99] Group 3 - The report outlines the feedback mechanisms between yen depreciation and rising Japanese government bond yields, suggesting that as bond yields increase, the risk of debt divergence also rises, leading to further yen depreciation and higher imported inflation [35][57][99] - It discusses the implications of Japan's monetary policy adjustments on global financial markets, particularly in the context of emerging markets facing potential capital outflows due to shifts in the global financing currency dynamics [35][99][106] - The report concludes that Japan's monetary policy adjustments are a critical starting point for broader changes in the global credit currency system, potentially deepening existing fractures [67][99][106]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) initiated monetary policy normalization in March 2024, raising the policy rate from -0.1% to a range of 0% to 0.1%[1] - The BOJ ended its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy and ceased purchasing ETFs and J-REITs, marking a significant shift after eight years of negative interest rates[1] - Despite these hawkish measures, the Japanese yen depreciated from 150 to over 157 against the US dollar, indicating market skepticism about the effectiveness of the policy changes[1] Group 2: Inflation Dynamics - Japan's inflation has normalized, with a significant increase in the proportion of companies raising prices, reaching the highest level since 1983[1] - Both household and corporate inflation expectations are at record highs, suggesting a shift in pricing strategies post-pandemic[1] - The cost transmission coefficient has increased, allowing upstream costs to be passed down to consumers more effectively than in the past[1] Group 3: Debt Dynamics and Risks - The normalization of monetary policy reintroduces debt divergence risks into the pricing framework of the yen, as higher interest rates could lead to increased debt sustainability concerns[1] - A dual-factor pricing model for USD/JPY indicates a strong negative relationship with the debt divergence risk index, with a model fit of 75%[1] - Historical analysis shows that during normal inflation periods, higher debt divergence risks negatively impact the yen, contrasting with previous deflationary periods where the relationship was positive[1]