上海 [Table_IndustryInfo] 2024 年 12 月 22 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•医药生物 医药行业创新药周报（12.16-12.22） A 股和港股创新药板块及 XBI 指数本周走势 西南证券研究发展中心 本周 A 股创新药板块下跌 0.79%，跑输沪深 300 指数 1.11pp，生物医药下跌 2.04%。近 6 个月 A 股创新药累计上涨 12.03%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.56pp， 生物医药累计上涨 5.85%。 本周 XBI 指数下跌 3.72%，近6 个月 XBI 指数累计下跌 1.26%。 12 月国内 11 款新药获批上市，无新增适应症获批上市；本周国内 2 款新药获批 上市，无新增适应症获批上市。 12 月美国 4 款 NDA 获批上市，3 款 BLA 获批上市。本周美国 2 款 NDA 获批上 市，1款 BLA 获批上市。12月欧洲无创新药获批上市，本周欧洲无新药获批上市。 12 月日本无创新药获批上市，本周日本无新药获批上市。 本周全球共达成 21起重点交易，披露金额的重点交易有 9起。默沙东与翰森制药 签订协议，交易金额为 2012百万 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the automotive sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry over the next six months [73]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing strong retail growth, with passenger car retail sales reaching 1.083 million units from December 1-15, a year-on-year increase of 34% and a month-on-month increase of 14% [50]. - The report highlights the increasing demand for smart vehicles and components, driven by regulatory support and technological advancements in areas such as intelligent driving and low-altitude economy [51]. - Key companies such as GAC Group and Aikodi are noted for their expanding production capacities and accelerating electric vehicle (EV) business [55][56]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Major automotive companies reported significant sales growth in November, with GAC Group selling 199,000 units, a decrease of 12.4% year-on-year but a 7.1% increase month-on-month [41]. - BYD's passenger car sales reached 504,000 units in November, reflecting a 67.2% year-on-year increase [41]. Market Trends - The automotive sector's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio as of December 20 is 24 times, down 0.8% from the previous week, indicating a slight decline in valuation [26]. - The report notes a 1.3% decrease in steel prices and a 4% drop in natural rubber futures, which may impact production costs in the automotive industry [33]. Company Developments - Aikodi is expanding its production capacity and accelerating its EV business, with a projected increase in sales and profitability [55]. - Fuyao Glass is expected to enhance its market share due to its advantages in business focus and profitability [56]. - The report mentions that companies like KOBODA are increasing their market share in traditional lighting while also developing new growth points in domain controllers [59]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several companies as key investment opportunities, including GAC Group, Aikodi, and Fuyao Glass, due to their strong market positions and growth potential in the EV sector [55][56][60].

Domestic Policy Insights - The Chinese government aims to enhance domestic demand comprehensively, focusing on increasing consumer capacity and willingness through fiscal measures and social security improvements[6]. - In 2024, the government plans to allocate 3.9 trillion yuan in new special bonds, with expectations for the limit to exceed 4 trillion yuan, to support local government projects and stimulate economic growth[8]. - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has issued guidelines to improve the market value management of central enterprises, emphasizing quality development and strategic mergers and acquisitions[10]. Economic Indicators - The Markit Composite PMI for the U.S. in December reached 56.6%, the highest since March 2022, indicating strong economic growth but uneven performance between sectors[32]. - The Eurozone's Composite PMI for December was 49.5%, indicating continued contraction in economic activity, particularly in manufacturing, while services showed some resilience[16]. - Japan's exports grew by 3.8% year-on-year in November, while imports fell by 3.8%, resulting in a trade deficit of 117.6 billion yen, better than market expectations[17]. Market Reactions - Following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the market reacted with increased bond yields and a decline in major stock indices, reflecting concerns over future monetary policy tightening[19]. - The Fed's updated projections indicate a potential increase in interest rates in the coming years, with 17 out of 19 officials expecting rates to exceed 3.5% by 2025[19]. Sector-Specific Developments - The real estate market is expected to see a rebalancing of supply and demand due to optimized local government bond management, which will support housing projects and improve market conditions[8]. - The government is focusing on new consumption sectors such as culture, tourism, and digital economy, aiming to foster innovative consumption models[6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the pharmaceutical industry, particularly focusing on innovative drugs and their commercialization potential [28][49]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a recovery, with a notable increase in sales and profit margins, driven by policy support for innovative drugs and a growing aging population [4][14][20]. - The report highlights the importance of clinical data and commercialization milestones for investment decisions in innovative drugs [48][49]. - The overall healthcare expenditure in China is on the rise, with total health expenditure projected at 90,578.8 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a 6.2% year-on-year increase [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical sector's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 296.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [53]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 37.09 billion yuan, marking a 9.6% increase [53]. 2. Demographic Trends - China's aging population is significant, with 220 million people aged 65 and above, accounting for 15.4% of the total population, which is expected to peak by mid-century [4]. 3. Government Policy and Support - The government has approved a comprehensive plan to support the development of innovative drugs, which includes optimizing pricing, insurance payments, and regulatory processes [28][66]. - The report notes that 89 out of 117 drugs successfully entered the insurance negotiation process, with an average price reduction of 63% [28]. 4. Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities are identified in leading innovative drug companies such as Heng Rui Medicine, and companies transitioning to innovation like Yi Fan Medicine and En Hua Pharmaceutical [49]. - The report emphasizes the potential for domestic innovative drugs to expand internationally, with significant licensing deals already in progress [29]. 5. Market Dynamics - The report notes a decline in the sales expense ratio for pharmaceutical companies, indicating improved operational efficiency [55]. - The overall research and development expense ratio for the A-share innovative drug sector is reported at 12%, slightly down from the previous year [38]. 6. Subsector Analysis - The report highlights that the chemical preparation sector has become the largest holding in public pharmaceutical funds, with a market share of 19.4% [62]. - The medical device sector has seen a decrease in market share, with a notable decline of 0.13 percentage points [1]. 7. Future Outlook - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, supported by favorable policies and demographic trends, with a focus on innovative drug development and commercialization [28][49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the innovative drug sector, particularly regarding the international expansion of innovative drugs [2][43]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent licensing agreement between Hansoh Pharmaceutical and Merck for the oral GLP-1R agonist HS-10535, which includes an upfront payment of $110 million and potential milestone payments of up to $1.9 billion, indicating strong international collaboration in the innovative drug space [2][43]. - The report notes that the pharmaceutical industry index has underperformed, with a decline of 10.62% year-to-date, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 25.1 percentage points [11][32]. - The current valuation level of the pharmaceutical industry (PE-TTM) is 27.31 times, with a premium of 79.55% relative to the entire A-share market [11][33]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy and Key Stocks - The report recommends a portfolio including companies such as Sino Medical (688108), Enhua Pharmaceutical (002262), and Shanghai Laishi (002252), among others, with a focus on their growth potential and market performance [12][21][34]. Market Performance - The pharmaceutical index experienced a decline of 2.13% in the past week, ranking 14th among industries, while the year-to-date performance shows a significant underperformance compared to the broader market [11][32]. - The report provides insights into the performance of various sub-sectors, noting that traditional Chinese medicine has shown the best relative performance despite a slight decline [11][20]. Hong Kong Stock Portfolio Analysis - The report includes a portfolio of Hong Kong-listed companies such as Rongchang Biopharmaceutical (9995) and Hengrui Medicine (0013), analyzing their recent performance and market expectations [3][44][27]. Innovation and Research Developments - The report emphasizes the importance of ongoing research and development in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in the context of new drug approvals and clinical trials, which are crucial for future growth [11][31].

请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 机器人行业周报（1216-1222） [Table_IndustryInfo] 2024 年 12 月 22 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•机械设备 机器人行业周报（1216-1222） 面向证券 目 | --- | --- | |-------|--------------| | | | | | 1 行情回顾 … | | | 2 产业动态 . | | | 3 触黄动态 . | | | 4 风险提示 | 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 机器人行业周报（1216-1222） | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 目 图 | 录 | | | | | | | 图 1: 机器人指数行情回顾 . | | | | 图 2: 智元机器人组装车间 . | | | | 图 3： 智元机器人 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.18 CNY over the next six months, based on the current price of 8.23 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the dual drivers of smart urban rail and low-altitude economy, exploring new opportunities in digital intelligence [1][2]. - The traditional urban rail business is expected to continue benefiting from the renewal and upgrade of urban rail systems, with a significant market potential of 375-560 billion CNY for signal system upgrades by 2030 [7]. - The semiconductor materials capacity expansion is anticipated to benefit from the industry's recovery, with a projected 19.78% year-on-year increase in global semiconductor sales in 2024 [3]. - The low-altitude economy is projected to reach a market size of 6 trillion CNY by 2035, with the company actively developing three major business areas in this sector [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is a leading player in the smart urban rail sector, having established a "1+2+N" development strategy focusing on smart transportation, semiconductor, and digital industry [63][68]. - The company has shifted its focus to smart transportation and semiconductor industries, divesting from energy-saving and environmental protection businesses [64]. 2. Smart Transportation - The smart transportation segment has seen revenue growth from 9.8 billion CNY in 2017 to 25.6 billion CNY in 2021, although it faced challenges in 2022-2023 due to stricter approval requirements for subway projects [71]. - The company achieved a market share increase in urban rail signal systems from 15.2% in 2022 to 20.5% in 2023, with significant new orders in the smart transportation sector [7][71]. 3. Semiconductor Industry - The company is expanding its semiconductor materials production capacity, with projects in Shanxi and Pujiang progressing well, aiming to capitalize on the industry's recovery [3][4]. - The global semiconductor market is expected to see a steady increase in sales, with a projected year-on-year growth of 19.78% in the first three quarters of 2024 [3]. 4. Low-Altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is gaining traction, with government policies supporting its development, and the company has established a presence in this emerging market [8][88]. - The company is developing a comprehensive low-altitude service model, including smart take-off and landing fields and safety control systems, to capture growth in this sector [8][89]. 5. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are estimated at 2.23 billion CNY, 2.85 billion CNY, and 3.23 billion CNY, with net profits projected to grow significantly [12]. - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 12% in revenue and 43% in net profit over the next three years [12].

Economic Performance - Industrial production maintained stability with a year-on-year growth of 5.8% from January to November, consistent with the previous month[1] - In November, the industrial added value increased by 5.4% year-on-year, up 0.1 percentage points from October, marking three consecutive months of growth[1] - Manufacturing value added rose to 6.0%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to October[1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 3.3% year-on-year from January to November, slightly below market expectations[1] - Narrowly defined infrastructure investment increased by 4.2%, while broadly defined infrastructure investment rose by 9.39%, accelerating by approximately 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Real estate development investment decreased by 10.4% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] Consumer Behavior - Social retail sales grew by 3.5% year-on-year from January to November, with November's growth at 3.0%, down 1.8 percentage points from October[5] - The retail sales of building and decoration materials turned positive for the first time in eight months, increasing by 2.9% year-on-year in November[5] - Service retail sales maintained a robust growth rate of 6.4% year-on-year, outpacing goods retail sales by 3.2 percentage points[5] Real Estate Market - The commodity housing sales area and sales amount turned from declines of 1.6% and 1% in October to increases of 3.2% and 1% in November[3] - The National Housing Prosperity Index rose to 92.62 in November, marking a continuous increase for seven months[3] - High-frequency data indicated that the cumulative transaction area of commodity housing in 30 major cities reached approximately 611.19 million square meters by mid-December, surpassing last year's 524.81 million square meters[3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The overall performance of the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) was weak during the week, with the market capitalization closing at 636.94 billion yuan on December 13, 2024, a decrease of 5.7% from the opening on December 9, 2024 [23][15]. - Among the 260 stocks listed on the BSE, 26 stocks increased, 1 remained flat, and 233 stocks decreased, with the best performer, Wuxin Tunnel Equipment, rising by 36.3%, while Kolon New Materials fell by 32.5% [23][28]. - The BSE's trading volume for the week was 118.9 billion yuan, with an average weekly trading amount of 4.6 million yuan and a turnover rate of 40.8%, indicating a decline in liquidity compared to the previous week [15][23]. Group 2: Company Listings and Dynamics - No new stocks were listed on the BSE this week, but two companies are set to update their IPO dynamics next week: Fangzheng Valve will hold a roadshow and issue announcements, while Lintai New Materials will be listed [18][22]. - Fangzheng Valve, operating in the machinery sector, reported a revenue of 680 million yuan and a net profit of 6.06 million yuan for 2023, with an issue price of 3.5 yuan per share and a post-issue P/E ratio of 8.4 times [18][21]. - Lintai New Materials, in the automotive sector, reported a revenue of 210 million yuan and a net profit of 4.92 million yuan for 2023, with an issue price of 19.8 yuan per share and a post-issue P/E ratio of 17.9 times [21][22]. Group 3: Industry Performance - The average market capitalization of BSE companies is 2.45 billion yuan, significantly lower than the average market capitalization of 9.8 billion yuan for the ChiNext and 11.97 billion yuan for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [15][16]. - The median P/E ratio (TTM) for the BSE is 41.0 times, which has decreased by 4.2 times compared to the previous week [15][16]. - The food and beverage sector showed relatively good performance with a median sector return of 2.0%, while the media sector performed poorly with a median return of -14.9% [32][33]. Group 4: Fund Performance - The BSE-related thematic funds performed well this week, with the Huatai-PineBridge BSE Innovation Selected Mixed Fund A showing a return of approximately 3.0%, outperforming the overall fund performance [34][35]. - The BSE index fund products, however, performed poorly, with the Guangfa BSE 50 Index A and C showing a slight decline of about -0.11% [34][35].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong growth potential for the ASIC market, with a projected market size of $42.9 billion by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 45.4% [4][25]. Core Insights - ASICs are tailored for specific algorithms and applications, providing high computational efficiency and energy savings, particularly in AI workloads [5][38]. - The demand for ASICs is driven by the rapid growth of AI applications and the need for optimized computing solutions in data centers [4][25]. - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, with a total of $170.8 billion in 2024, a 56% year-over-year increase, indicating a competitive landscape for AI capabilities [13]. Summary by Sections 1. ASIC Chip Market Outlook - The ASIC market is expected to grow significantly, with a forecasted market size of $42.9 billion by 2028, up from approximately $6.6 billion in 2023, representing a 25% market share of data center accelerated computing chips [25][26]. - The increasing demand for AI computing is expected to enhance the market share of ASICs from 16% in 2023 to 25% by 2028 [25]. 2. Comparison of ASIC and GPU - ASICs are designed for specific tasks, offering superior energy efficiency compared to GPUs, which are more general-purpose [32][38]. - The unit cost of computing power for ASICs is lower than that of GPUs, with Google’s TPU v5 and Amazon’s Trainium 2 costing 70% and 60% of NVIDIA's H100, respectively [39][40]. - ASICs are primarily used in inference scenarios and are beginning to penetrate training applications, while GPUs remain dominant in training due to their flexibility and parallel processing capabilities [46][48]. 3. Self-Developed AI ASICs by Major CSPs - Google’s TPU has evolved through multiple generations, with the latest TPU v6 expected to deliver significant performance improvements [58]. - Amazon's Trainium 2 chip has achieved 430 TFLOPS of FP16/BF16 performance, with a 4x performance increase over its predecessor [76]. - Microsoft’s Maia 100 chip is designed for AI workloads on Azure, boasting 3200 TFLOPS performance and a high memory bandwidth of 1.8 TB/s [88]. - Meta's MTIA v2 chip, released in 2024, has significantly improved performance metrics, with dense and sparse computing capabilities reaching 354 TFLOPS and 708 TFLOPS, respectively [99]. 4. Related Companies - Broadcom is positioned as a leading player in the AI ASIC market, with a target of achieving over $10 billion in revenue from AI chips by 2024, representing 35% of its total revenue [118]. - Marvell is recognized as a top-tier ASIC manufacturer, providing customized computing products for major North American cloud providers [5]. - The report highlights the strategic collaborations between Broadcom and its clients, enabling rapid product development and deployment in the ASIC space [125].