英大证券研究所证券研究报告 策 略 晨 报 分析师：郑罡 执业证书编号：S0990511010001 电话：0755-83000291 邮箱：zhenggang@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 金点策略晨报 2025 年 2 月 11 日 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 【A 股大势研判】 周一，沪深两市继续稳步上行行情，成交金额有所回落。全部 A 股共有 4146 家上涨，1109 家下跌，139 家持平。 在申万一级行业中，计算机、传媒、商贸零售、社会服务和通信板块涨幅靠前，电力设备、煤炭、公用事业、家用电 器和交通运输板块表现落后。周一，上证指数报收于 3322.17 点，涨 18.5 点，涨幅 0.56%，成交金额为 6770.38 亿元； 深证成指报收于 10631.25 点，涨 55.25 点，涨幅 0.52%，成交金额为 10537.86 亿元。 周一盘中，DeepSeek 概念股继续活跃上涨行情。根据 iFind 的数据统计，计算机和电子板块全天市场成交分别为 3158 亿元和 2704 亿元，占周一沪深两市成交金额的 17.95%和 15.37%，为周一盘中成交规模最大的两个行业板块 ...

2025 年 2 月 10 日 假期因素带动消费物价回暖 请务必阅读最后一页的免责条款 1 相关报告 1 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.5%，其中，城市同比上涨 0.6%，农村同比上涨 0.3%；食 品价格同比上涨 0.4%，非食品价格同比上涨 0.5%；消费品价格同比上涨 0.1%， 服务价格同比上涨 1.1%。1 月 CPI 环比上涨 0.7，其中，城市环比上涨 0.8%， 农村环比上涨 0.5%；食品价格环比上涨 1.3%，非食品价格环比上涨 0.6%； 消费品价格环比上涨 0.6%，服务价格环比上涨 0.9%。1 月"双节"因素无疑 是拉动国内消费增长的重要原因之一。食品价格方面，猪肉价格同比上涨 13.8%，鲜菜价格同比上涨 2.4%，分别影响 CPI 上涨约 0.17%和 0.05%；服务 方面，飞机票和旅游价格分别上涨 8.9%和 7%，电影及演出票、家政服务分别 上涨 11%和 6.9%，服务价格上涨影响 CPI 同比上涨约 0.42%。耐用消费品价 格竞争压力犹在，燃油小汽车和新能源小汽车价格分别下降 4.6%和 5.8%。特 朗普关税政策引发美国通胀预期不稳，美联储延缓降息，美债压力持续，国 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 策 略 晨 报 分析师：郑罡 执业证书编号：S0990511010001 电话：0755-83000291 邮箱：zhenggang@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 每周投资早参 2025 年 2 月 10 日 观点： 请务必阅读最后一页的免责条款 1 研报内容 总量研究 【A 股大势研判】 上周五，沪深两市呈现震荡上行走势，成交金额继续增长。全部 A 股共有 4169 家上涨，1087 家下跌，139 家持平。 在申万一级行业中，涨幅居前的分别是计算机、综合、电力设备、钢铁和房地产板块，涨幅较少居前分别是银行、公 用事业、农林牧渔、社会服务和国防军工板块。全天上证指数报收于 3303.67 点，涨 33.01 点，涨幅 1.01%，成交金额 为 7576.14 亿元；深证成指报收于 10576 点，涨 182.37 点，涨 1.75%，成交金额为 12026.31 亿元。 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 由于新能源发电具有间歇性和波动性，除了采用储能等备用电源机制调峰调 频之外，仍需要坚强的电网来保障其稳定接入和消纳。主干网与新能源配套发展， 主网投资或维持较高增长，配电网投资或 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 策 略 晨 报 分析师：郑罡 执业证书编号：S0990511010001 电话：0755-83000291 邮箱：zhenggang@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 金点策略晨报 2025 年 2 月 7 日 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 2025 年，不排除国内车企将部分智驾功能安装在更多中低端新能源汽车，便 利消费者日常使用，以争取更好的销量增长势头。投资者可关注近期国内龙头车 企在智驾系统开发布局进程，及其智驾系统功能表现，和对其主要销售车辆的拉 动作用。当然，国内市场仍是全球汽车行业竞争最激烈的区域市场之一，价格战 竞争影响犹在，尤其是中低端汽车消费者对价格敏感度较高，具有成本优势车企 的市场开拓能力较强。投资者仍需关注国内新能源汽车行业主要厂商的营销策略 以及对其盈利的影响。 高耗能高算力人工智能发展模式面临转变，从着重硬件的投入逐步转向软硬 件优化协同发展局面。Deepseek-R1 大模型能够让中小企业能够以较低成本部署 先进的 AI 技术，模型开源使得更多研究者和开发者能够参与到模型的改进和优 化中，加速技术迭代与创新。此外，中国大模型崛起有望带动软件、芯 ...

Core Views - The report highlights that external uncertainties are raising investor concerns about domestic economic demand growth, leading to a phase of pullback in certain blue-chip sectors of the A-share market [2][6] - There is an expectation for policy support from the upcoming National People's Congress, particularly in areas of technological innovation and consumer stimulation, which may enhance domestic demand [2][6] - The development of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies is noted as a key area of focus, with potential growth opportunities for related upstream and downstream industries, while also cautioning against risks associated with outdated technologies [2][8] A-share Market Analysis - On the first trading day after the Spring Festival, the A-share market exhibited a mixed performance with 3,433 stocks rising and 1,850 falling, while the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,229.49 points, down 21.11 points, a decrease of 0.65% [5] - The trading volume increased, with the total turnover reaching 521.1 billion yuan in the Shanghai market and 768.4 billion yuan in the Shenzhen market [5] - The report notes that sectors such as computer, media, electronics, non-ferrous metals, and defense showed strong gains, while sectors like comprehensive, coal, building materials, food and beverage, and communications faced significant declines [5] Trade Relations and Economic Impact - The report discusses the impact of new tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Chinese exports, which may accelerate the overseas transfer of some low-end manufacturing industries in China [6] - It emphasizes that the rise of global trade protectionism poses uncertainties and risks to global economic growth, which in turn affects domestic economic demand [6] AI Technology Development - The report highlights the emergence of DeepSeek, a company focused on advanced language models, which has gained attention for its innovative AI technology that significantly enhances performance in various tasks [7][8] - The DeepSeek-R1 model has been recognized for its competitive performance and lower service pricing compared to existing models like OpenAI's GPT-4, indicating a shift in the AI development landscape [8]

Core Views - The A-share market is experiencing short-term adjustments, particularly in the chip and artificial intelligence sectors, due to the performance of DeepSeek's AI model, which is comparable to OpenAI but at a lower cost, leading to potential adjustments in profit expectations for related companies [2][5] - High-dividend stocks such as banks and coal are seeing a rebound, possibly due to a shift in market preferences towards value stocks as growth stocks undergo corrections [5][9] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to gradually improve post-holiday, supported by counter-cyclical policies and the return of long-term capital to the market, enhancing the resilience of the A-share market [3][9] A-share Market Analysis - On the last trading day after the holiday, the A-share market showed a decline, with 1,814 stocks rising and 3,417 falling. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,250.60 points, down 0.06%, with a trading volume of 450.23 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,156.07 points, down 1.33%, with a trading volume of 667.64 billion yuan [4][5] - The manufacturing PMI for January was reported at 49.1%, indicating a decline from the previous month, attributed to the early timing of the Spring Festival and increased external uncertainties [6][9] Sector Insights - The manufacturing sector is facing short-term impacts due to holiday factors, but recovery is anticipated as production resumes and counter-cyclical policies take effect, potentially leading to a rebound in macroeconomic demand [3][6] - The high-tech sector, particularly artificial intelligence, is under scrutiny for its initial development uncertainties and high valuation pressures, necessitating careful evaluation by investors [5][9] Policy Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has issued a plan to promote the high-quality development of index investment in the capital market, aiming to enhance the scale and proportion of index investment and improve the long-term returns for investors [9]

Core Views - The ongoing "Trump effect" may impact the global economic order, leading to potential economic slowdown, with defensive assets like gold remaining favored [2][4][5] - The national team continues to stabilize the market, as reflected in the fourth-quarter fund reports, which show increased holdings in broad-based ETFs like the CSI A500 [7][8] A-Share Market Analysis - On a recent trading day, the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced slight adjustments, with 1,032 stocks rising and 4,261 falling. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,213.62 points, down 29 points, a decline of 0.89%, with a trading volume of 452.31 billion yuan [4] - The real estate sector faced limitations on short-term rebounds due to a downgrade in credit ratings for a leading property company, while the food and beverage sector saw declines primarily due to pressures in the liquor industry [4] - The communication sector showed activity driven by expectations of increased investment in new-generation communication technology infrastructure, alongside the growth of data centers and artificial intelligence [4] Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on active opportunities in gold and other precious metals, as well as low-positioning high-dividend stocks, while trading investors should consider emerging industries like chip design, new-generation communication technology, and artificial intelligence, which are expected to benefit from policy-driven performance growth [2][8] - The recent increase in financing balances in the margin trading business indicates growing investor confidence, despite a recent market adjustment [7]

Core Views - The report highlights that sectors such as communication, computer, electronics, non-bank financials, and machinery equipment have shown active performance, primarily driven by the AI investment wave and increasing demand for AI infrastructure [2][6] - It is suggested that investors pay attention to leading companies in relevant sub-industries and those with core technologies, as the low-orbit satellite internet system is expected to start testing in 2025 [6] - The brokerage sector has also shown signs of recovery, attributed to the influx of medium to long-term funds, which is expected to enhance the capital market's prosperity [6] A-share Market Analysis - Last week, the A-share market saw a rebound with 3,956 stocks rising, 1,226 falling, and 211 remaining unchanged. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,252.63 points, up 0.70%, with a trading volume of 480.685 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,292.73 points, up 1.15%, with a trading volume of 741.332 billion yuan [5] - The report notes that the sectors experiencing a pullback include oil and petrochemicals, food and beverages, coal, construction materials, and defense industries, primarily due to uncertainties in domestic demand growth [7] Economic Policy Impact - The report anticipates that counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies will positively impact demand in the aforementioned sectors, suggesting that investors should monitor the implementation of related policies for potential growth opportunities [7] - The strengthening of the RMB against the USD is also seen as beneficial for A-share performance, with expectations of a continued upward trend in the market [9][10]

Core Views - The report indicates that favorable policies are expected to attract significant medium- to long-term capital into the A-share market, although the pace and strategy of this capital influx will still depend on market performance and macroeconomic conditions [2][8] - The A-share market is anticipated to shift from a speculative environment characterized by high volatility to a more stable trend focused on long-term value investment [2][8] Market Analysis - On the trading day analyzed, the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced a rise and subsequent fall, with a total of 2,334 A-shares rising and 2,795 falling. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,230.16 points, up 16.54 points (0.51%), with a trading volume of 539.80 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,176.17 points, down 49.70 points (0.49%), with a trading volume of 815.48 billion yuan [4][5] - The report highlights that the policy from six ministries aims to promote medium- to long-term capital entering the market, with specific measures including increasing the actual investment ratio and extending assessment periods for institutional investors [4][5][8] Policy Implications - The implementation plan requires public funds to increase their holdings of A-share market value by at least 10% annually over the next three years, which translates to an increase of at least 70 billion yuan in public fund holdings by 2025 [5][7] - Large state-owned insurance companies are expected to allocate 30% of their new premiums to A-share investments starting in 2025, potentially leading to an annual investment scale exceeding 100 billion yuan [5][7] Long-term Outlook - The report suggests that the domestic economic development is shifting from being driven by real estate to being supported by government investment and wealth-driven capital market prosperity, which is expected to enhance the overall economic resilience and stability of the A-share market [2][8] - If domestic enterprise investment and consumer sentiment improve by mid-2025, it could lead to a significant increase in medium- to long-term capital inflows, further stabilizing and revitalizing the A-share market [2][8]

Core Views - The upcoming second term of Trump as US President introduces uncertainties in US-China relations, which may impact the domestic economy and A-share market [2][10] - The A-share market has shown signs of stabilization, benefiting from positive macroeconomic policy expectations and increased market stabilization measures, with a potential for continued rebound in the future [2][10] A-share Market Analysis - On a recent trading day, the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced narrow fluctuations with a slight increase in trading volume, where 3,613 stocks rose, 1,587 fell, and 186 remained unchanged [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,244.38 points, up 2.56 points (0.08%), with a trading volume of 469.7 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,256.40 points, up 95.07 points (0.94%), with a trading volume of 713.2 billion yuan [4] Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 123 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining the operation rate at 1.5%, to alleviate short-term borrowing rate pressures ahead of the Spring Festival [5] - The domestic GDP growth rate for 2024 is projected at 5%, indicating a stable economic development trend [5] - The loan market quotation rate (LPR) remains unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%, while the domestic interest rate adjustments are still influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [5] Real Estate Market Outlook - The Ministry of Finance plans to promote local special bonds to acquire land and idle properties, which is expected to improve developers' cash flow [10] - The domestic real estate market has shown signs of improvement in sales since Q4 2024, with expectations for continued recovery in 2025 due to anticipated loose monetary policies [10] Sector Performance - The electric power equipment and communication sectors have been active, with significant investments expected in 2025, particularly in optimizing the main grid and supporting high-quality development of renewable energy [8] - The State Grid is expected to invest over 650 billion yuan in 2025, focusing on major projects that enhance infrastructure [8] Corporate Actions and Market Confidence - Over 300 listed companies have announced stock repurchase plans using bank loans, with over 40% of these companies having a market capitalization exceeding 10 billion yuan, indicating a positive effect on market stability and confidence [7] - The recent rise in international oil prices and commodity prices is expected to improve the profitability of state-owned industrial enterprises, potentially supporting stock price recovery [7]