Market Overview - The A-share major indices mostly closed higher today, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.43% at 3346.72 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.16% to 10749.46 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 17150 billion, a decrease of 1047.9 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, sectors such as computer, pharmaceutical biology, media, telecommunications, automotive, and electric equipment led the gains, while real estate, building materials, comprehensive, retail, steel, and textile sectors experienced declines [1] Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included medical payment reform, medical services, cloud computing, CRO, animal health, big data, domestic software and hardware, cybersecurity, digital government, genetic testing, Huawei Kunpeng, data security, financial and tax digitalization, and medical devices [2]

Fiscal Revenue Growth - In 2024, national general public budget revenue grew by 1.3% year-on-year, while local general public budget revenue increased by 1.7%[1] - The growth rates for fiscal revenue in different regions were: Northeast (6.2%), West (3.2%), Central (1.8%), and East (0.8%)[9] Regional Disparities - Western provinces showed faster fiscal revenue growth compared to Eastern and Central regions, driven by the importance of energy security and the Belt and Road Initiative[2] - In 2024, the top five provinces by fiscal revenue were Guangdong (13,533 billion), Jiangsu (10,038 billion), Zhejiang (8,706 billion), Shanghai (8,374 billion), and Shandong (7,711 billion)[10] Economic Challenges - The slowdown in fiscal revenue growth is attributed to insufficient effective demand, price declines, and tax incentives in the real estate sector[1] - Multiple provinces experienced negative growth in VAT and corporate income tax revenues due to various economic pressures, including declining industrial profits and resource tax revenues[1] Historical Context - Since 1949, China's fiscal revenue has evolved significantly, with major changes occurring post-1978 and 1994 due to reforms in the fiscal system[2] - The fiscal revenue ranking has shifted, with Guangdong maintaining the top position for 34 consecutive years, reaching 1.35 trillion in 2024 despite challenges[7] Future Outlook - A more proactive fiscal policy is anticipated for 2025 to address ongoing economic uncertainties and structural tax reductions[1] - The long-term effects of incremental policy changes are expected to gradually enhance fiscal revenue potential and stabilize local finances[1]

最近一年行业相对走势 资料来源：聚源 -31% -22% -14% -5% 4% 13% 24/01 24/03 24/05 24/07 24/08 医药生物 沪深300 证券研究报告 | 行业月报 2024 年 2 月 11 日 投资要点 分析师：李兴 执业编号：S0300518100001 电话：010-83755576 邮箱：lixing@ykzq.com 研究助理：刘莎 电话：15625156877 邮箱：liusha@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开医药】看好创新升级、并购重组 与产业出海——医药行业 2025 年展望》 2025-01-13 《【粤开医药】整体承压，局部分化—— 医药行业 2024 年回顾》2025-01-12 《【粤开医药】优化商业健康保险对创新 药的支付——医保数据共享是关键》 2024-12-08 医药生物 【粤开医药】从摩根大通医疗健康大 会看生物创新药管线：关注 ADC、 双特异性抗体、细胞与基因治疗 2025 年第四十三届摩根大通医疗健康年会（JPM 大会）盛大召开。国内百济 神州、恒瑞医药、信达生物、康方生物等约 30 家企业参会，分享了多个重 磅品种最新成果，中 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 2025 年 02 月 09 日 投资要点 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 分析师：马家进 执业编号：S0300522110002 电话：13645711472 邮箱：majiajin@ykzq.com 分析师：邓洪波 执业编号：S0300524070001 电话：18612595900 邮箱：denghongbo@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】2025 年地方政府怎么干？ 目标与抓手》2025-02-04 《【粤开宏观】特朗普打响"加征关税 2.0" 第一枪：原因、影响、推演及应对》 2025-02-02 《【粤开证券】"特朗普 2.0"对华加征关税 在不同情景下的影响测算》2025-01-23 《【粤开宏观】《关于推动中长期资金入市 工作的实施方案》有哪些看点？哪些期 待？》2025-01-23 《【粤开宏观】复盘 2024 年中国经济，力 争 2025 年一季度"开门红"》2025-01-19 宏观研究 【粤开宏观】美国制造业回流：效果 和展望 摘要 2008 年 ...

Group 1: Tariff Actions and Rationale - Trump signed an executive order on February 1, 2025, imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and a 25% tariff on products from Canada and Mexico, effective February 4, 2025[1] - The tariffs are justified under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), citing threats from illegal immigration and drugs[5] - The U.S. imports from China, Canada, and Mexico accounted for over 40% of total U.S. imports in 2023, with trade deficits from these countries being significant[6] Group 2: Economic Impact on China - The 10% tariff on Chinese goods is expected to reduce China's export growth to the U.S. by 12 percentage points in 2025, impacting overall export growth by 1.8 percentage points[16] - Labor-intensive goods such as furniture and toys are particularly vulnerable, with a 1% increase in tariffs leading to a 1.5 percentage point drop in export growth for these categories[17] - The indirect impact from tariffs on Canada and Mexico could further decrease China's exports by 0.06 percentage points due to reduced imports from these countries[19] Group 3: Future Tariff Developments - The current 10% tariff is likely just the beginning, with potential increases to 20%-30% in future tariffs, raising the average tariff rate on Chinese goods to 40%-50%[24][26] - Future tariff actions may involve phased increases based on ongoing negotiations, similar to the previous "301 investigations" approach[27] - Targeted measures may be implemented against Chinese goods, including stricter import scrutiny and tariffs on low-value cross-border e-commerce packages[28]

Economic Growth Targets - The average GDP growth target for 31 provinces in 2025 is set at 5.3%, slightly lower than the 2024 target of 5.4%[2][3][14]. - 29 provinces have set their GDP growth targets between 5% and 6%, with Tibet having the highest target of "over 7%, striving for 8%" and Qinghai the lowest at "around 4.5%"[2][15]. Fiscal Revenue Goals - The average growth target for local general public budget revenue in 2025 is 2.9%, which is 2.5 percentage points lower than the GDP growth target[5][7][22]. - 24 out of 30 provinces have lowered their fiscal revenue growth targets compared to 2024, with the highest target being 10% for both Xinjiang and Tibet, and the lowest at 1.1% for Jiangxi[5][6][28]. Sector-Specific Targets - Industrial production targets have been generally raised, with Guangdong increasing its target from 5% to around 6% and Tibet setting a high target of 16%[8][30]. - Social retail sales growth targets have been significantly lowered, indicating a need to boost consumer demand, with Hubei adjusting from over 9% to around 7%[8][35]. Employment and Price Stability - The urban unemployment rate target is generally maintained at around 5.5% across most provinces, with a total of 16.51 million new urban jobs expected to be created in 2025[9][39]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth target has been adjusted down to around 2% for most provinces, reflecting current low inflation pressures[9][38]. Key Economic Strategies - Provinces are focusing on boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand as a priority for 2025, with initiatives to support major consumption and service sectors[10][43]. - Investment strategies emphasize improving investment efficiency rather than merely increasing investment scale, with a focus on new infrastructure and green transformation projects[10][33].

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on China’s Exports - The "Trump 1.0" tariffs affected approximately $370 billion worth of goods, accounting for 68.7% of U.S. imports from China in 2018[3] - Average tariff rates on Chinese imports rose from 3.1% in early 2018 to 21% by the end of 2019, before slightly decreasing to 19.3% in early 2020[3][4] - Before tariff implementation, Chinese exports to the U.S. saw significant increases, with average growth rates of 21.5%, 31.8%, and 14.6% for different tariff lists, compared to an overall export growth of 11.2%[6] Group 2: Export Trends Post-Tariff Implementation - After tariffs were enacted, exports of goods on the "301 tariff" list dropped by 15.1%, while non-tariff list exports grew by 7.9%[7] - The share of Chinese exports to the U.S. fell from 19.1% in 2017 to 15.0% in 2023, while the U.S. share of imports from China decreased from 17.4% to 11.1%[8][47] - Despite a decline in direct exports to the U.S., China's global export share increased from 12.8% in 2017 to 14.2% in 2023[10][47] Group 3: Future Tariff Scenarios and Economic Impact - A 10% tariff increase could lead to a 12% drop in Chinese exports to the U.S. and a 0.3% decrease in China's GDP growth[11] - A potential 20%-30% tariff increase could result in a 24-36% decline in exports to the U.S. and a 0.7%-1.0% reduction in GDP growth[12] - In an extreme scenario with a 60% tariff, exports to the U.S. could plummet by 49%, leading to a 1.4% decrease in GDP growth[12] Group 4: Strategic Responses and Recommendations - China should implement strong countermeasures against U.S. tariffs and enhance negotiation leverage[15] - Increasing domestic demand and fiscal measures are crucial to offset potential declines in external demand[15] - Expanding trade partnerships, particularly with "Belt and Road" countries, is essential for maintaining export growth[15]

Group 1: Implementation Plan Highlights - The implementation plan aims to increase the actual investment ratio of long-term funds towards policy limits, with insurance funds currently at 12% and a potential upper limit of 25%[5] - Large state-owned insurance companies are expected to allocate 30% of new premiums to A-shares starting in 2025, potentially adding several hundred billion yuan annually to the market[6] - The plan introduces long-cycle assessments for public funds and insurance companies, with a focus on three to five-year performance metrics, increasing the weight of long-term indicators to at least 60%[7] Group 2: Market Comparison and Challenges - As of the end of 2023, long-term funds in China totaled 44.73 trillion yuan, with only 5.14 trillion yuan (6.6%) invested in the stock market, compared to 14.84 trillion USD (17.3%) in the US[5] - A-share companies have shown an average EPS growth of 2.68% from 2014 to 2023, significantly lower than the GDP growth of 5.75% during the same period, indicating weaker profitability[9] - The average annualized return of the CSI 300 index was 5.42%, lower than the S&P 500's 7.55%, highlighting the need for improved company quality and investment value[9] Group 3: Future Policy Optimization - Future policies may include relaxing investment restrictions for long-term funds and adopting a "prudent person" regulatory approach, moving away from strict quantitative limits[15] - There is potential to increase the overseas investment limits for pension funds and insurance companies, which are currently capped at 20% and 15% respectively[18] - The establishment of automatic enrollment mechanisms in pension plans could enhance participation rates, similar to successful models in the US[21]

Economic Performance - In 2024, China's GDP reached 134.9 trillion yuan, marking a 5% year-on-year growth and surpassing the 130 trillion yuan threshold for the first time[1] - The quarterly GDP growth rates were 5.3%, 4.7%, 4.6%, and 5.4%, indicating a "U-shaped" recovery throughout the year[2] - The nominal GDP growth rate was 4.2%, which was lower than the actual growth rate of 5%, leading to a divergence between macro data and micro perceptions[3] Support and Challenges - Key supports for the economy included a surprising rebound in exports, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, and significant increases in manufacturing investment, which rose by 9.2%[10] - Central government infrastructure investments saw a notable increase, with railway and water management investments growing by 13.5% and 41.7%, respectively[10] - Challenges included sluggish consumer spending, with retail sales growing only 3.5%, and a continued decline in the real estate market, where sales area and investment fell by 12.9% and 10.6% respectively[11] Outlook for 2025 - The report suggests setting a growth target of "double 5" for 2025, aiming for both nominal and actual GDP growth around 5%[3] - Three favorable conditions for Q1 2025 include enhanced policies to boost consumption and investment, accelerated project construction, and signs of stabilization in the real estate market[6] - Risks include unresolved debt and liquidity issues in the real estate sector and potential external shocks from increased tariffs under the new U.S. administration[25]

Group 1: Debt Relief Measures - The central government proposed a "6+4+2" debt relief initiative to resolve 12 trillion yuan of hidden debt with 10 trillion yuan over five years, significantly alleviating local government liquidity risks[6] - The initiative aims to transition local governments from emergency states to normal development, enhancing their economic growth capabilities[6] - The debt relief approach emphasizes accountability, ensuring local governments remain responsible for their hidden debts, thus reinforcing fiscal discipline[8] Group 2: Economic Implications - The debt relief measures reflect a shift from "developing through debt relief" to "debt relief through development," indicating a strategic change in fiscal policy[10] - The initiative is expected to save approximately 600 billion yuan in interest payments over five years by replacing high-cost, short-term hidden debts with lower-cost, long-term bonds[15] - The focus on sustainable economic growth is crucial for fiscal sustainability, as economic viability underpins the effectiveness of fiscal policies[13] Group 3: Long-term Considerations - Three key issues post-debt relief include managing short-term liquidity risks, establishing a long-term debt management mechanism, and ensuring debt supports economic development effectively[16] - The need for deeper fiscal and tax reforms is highlighted, particularly in constructing debt and capital budgets and reallocating responsibilities from local to central governments[19] - The alignment of debt expenditure structures with economic growth objectives is essential, ensuring that debt contributes positively to asset creation and economic benefits[25]