2024年03月31日 证券研究报告|宏观研究|宏观点评 制造业产需超季节性修复,PMI 值重回荣枯线之上 2024年 3 月官方制造业 PMI 录得 50.8%,较上月+1.7PCTS,自去年9月以来再 次回到荣枯线之上，显示制造业景气度明显回升。从 PMI 五大分项指数的角度来看, 除供应商配送时间指数之外,其余分项对3月制造业 PMI 贡献均为正,其中,PMI 新 订单指数和 PMI 生产指数分别较上月上行 4.0PCTS 和 2.4PCTS, 带动 3 月制造业上行 1.2PCTS 和 0.6PCTS,显示 3 月制造业景气度回升由产需同步回升支撑,其中需求的 带动作用更大。结合 3 月新出口订单指数较上月+5.0PCTS,显示 3 月制造业需求的回 升是内外需共同作用的结果。 今年３月,非制造业商务活动指数录得53.0%,较上月+1.6PCTS,其中,建筑业 PMI 为 56.2%,较上月+2.7PCTS,服务业 PMI 为 52.4%,较上月+1.4PCTS。3月建 筑业景气度较2月回升,一方面反映出随着气候转暖和节后集中开工,各地建筑工程施 工进度加快, 符合历年规律, 另一方面也反映出两会明确 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase Holding" indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to be higher than that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [25]. Core Viewpoints - The upcoming Qingming and May Day holidays are expected to boost the tourism economy, with domestic travel numbers recovering to 119.1% and 104.1% of 2019 levels for the 2023 May Day and National Day holidays respectively. For 2024, the New Year and Spring Festival travel numbers are projected to reach 109.4% and 119.0% of 2019 levels [14][15]. - Consumer sentiment and travel enthusiasm are anticipated to improve in 2024, benefiting the tourism economy's recovery. Data from Meituan shows a more than 250% week-on-week increase in travel bookings for the Qingming holiday [14]. - The gold market is experiencing upward pressure due to its "safe haven" and "anti-inflation" attributes, with gold prices rising significantly. The price of gold in the domestic market is around 673 RMB per gram, and companies in the gold jewelry sector are expected to benefit from inventory appreciation and increased consumer demand [16]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The social services sector index decreased by 2.76% this week, ranking 27th out of 31 in the Shenwan first-level industry performance [8][9]. - Sub-industry performance showed declines in various sectors, with education down by 8.43% and hotel and catering down by 5.42% [10]. Individual Stock Performance - Top-performing stocks included Shibai Testing (+15.10%) and Dalian Shengya (+15.07%), while the worst performers included Chuan Zhi Education (-12.01%) and Dongfang Fashion (-11.93%) [12]. Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: The upcoming holidays are expected to stimulate the tourism economy, with strong consumer travel intentions likely to drive growth in related sectors. Key companies to watch include Jiuhua Tourism, Jinjiang Hotels, and Haidilao [15]. - Investment Theme 2: The rising gold prices are expected to enhance the performance of gold jewelry companies, with a focus on brands like Lao Feng Xiang and China Gold [16].

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行业报告：先进制造行业周报 2024年3月23日 英伟达官宣新一代Blackwell架构，华为算力 GPU 需求破百万片 行业评级：增持 分析师：邹润芳 证券执业证书号：S0640521040001 ...

◆ 安德利 大湖股份 回盛生物 播恩集团 晨光生物 涨幅前五 33.1% 18.6% 13.3% 10.5% 7.4% 天邦食品 绿康生化 永顺生物 *ST天山 天马科技 跌幅前五 -11.0% -9.5% -8.7% -8.6% -8.3% ◆ ◆ ...

[证券研究报告] 产能扩张不及预期,竞争格局加剧,空悬渗透率不及预期,汽车销量不及预期 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------|---------|--------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | | 单位:面 | | 2021 | 2022 | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E | | | | 收入 | 687.72 | 715.52 | 776.34 | 846.21 | 926.60 | | 气门嘴及配件 | | 增速 | 14.84% | 4.04% | 8.50% | 9.00% | 9.50% | | | | 毛利率 | 42.06% | 38.18% | 38.50% | 39.20% | 39.50% | | | | 收入 | 1164.66 | 1339.49 | 1540.42 | 1732.97 | 1949.59 | | 汽车金属管件 | | 增速 | 20.50% | 15.01% | 15.00% | 12 ...

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Group 1 - The report highlights the strong performance of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) due to stable profits and high dividends, with high dividend indices outperforming the market over the past five years, a trend expected to continue in the short term [2][3] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has adjusted the performance evaluation system for SOEs, emphasizing return on equity (ROE) and market capitalization management, which is expected to enhance the intrinsic value and growth potential of these enterprises [2][3] - The report suggests that the reform of SOEs, particularly the "one enterprise, one policy" approach, will lead to a focus on both common quantitative indicators and individual enterprise differences, making SOEs worthy of attention [2][3] Group 2 - The report notes that the recent wave of technological advancements is expected to favor technology-related SOEs, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [3] - The analysis of the equity market shows that the A-share market indices experienced significant increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 4.97% and the ChiNext Index by 11.38%, driven by factors such as increased net inflows from northbound capital and supportive government policies [27][76] - The report emphasizes the importance of government support in stabilizing the market, with state capital inflows expected to improve liquidity and promote market rebounds [80]