【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】银行戴志锋：专题测算：上市银行的个人经营贷：高风险 占比低 证券研究报告 2024 年 9 月 23 日 [Table_Industry] [T[分Taa析bbl师lee__：TMi戴tlea志]in锋] 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 电话： [b_Suy 今日预览 Email： 今日重点>> 【银行】戴志锋：专题测算：上市银行的个人经营贷：高风险占比低 【政策】杨畅：增值税降幅收窄 研究分享>> 【非银】蒋峤：券商风控指标规定点评：较意见稿修订幅度不大，适度优化 资本空间 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 【固收】肖雨：美联储开启宽松周期——全球大类资产跟踪 20240921 【科技】孙行臻：工信部明确 2027 年改造目标，国产工业软件迎发展良机 晨报内容回顾： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 晨会聚焦 今日重点 ►【银行】戴志锋：专题测算：上市银行的个人经营贷：高风险占比低 戴志锋｜中泰银行业首席 S0740517030004 核心要点：1、概况：过去四年个人经营贷规模翻倍至 24 万亿；样本银行不良率下降 58bp 至 1.26%，但自 2023 下半年以来有抬升趋势，国 ...

、 增值税降幅收窄 ——当前经济与政策思考 证券研究报告/宏观策略专题报告 2024 年 09 月 22 日 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | [Table_Title] 分析师：杨畅 | [ 投资要点 Table_Summary ] | | 执业证书编号： S0740519090004 | ◼ 8 月财政数据：增值税累计同比降幅继续收窄，央地支出相对平稳，土地出让收入延续 | | 电话： 021-20315708 | 回落 | | Email ： yangchang@zts.com.cn | 住户与企业同步少增；存款同比多增 | | | ◼ 8 ...

美联储超预期降息，大宗板块集体走高 行业-市场走势对比 行业评级：增持（维持） 投资要点 ◼ 【本周关键词】：美联储超预期降息 50BP、黄金 ETF 持仓量继续上升 ◼ 投资建议：趋势的延续，维持行业"增持"评级 1）贵金属：本周，美联储超预期降息 50BP，海外黄金 ETF 持仓走高，金价持续刷 新历史新高，中长期看，美国远端国债实际收益率处于 2%左右历史高位，高利率下 美国经济压力逐步显现，随着全球信用格局重塑，贵金属价格将保持长期上行趋势。 2）大宗金属：本周，海外降息落地，流动性宽松叠加旺季带动，主要金属延续去库 趋势，整体价格有所提振。在长期供需格局重塑背景下，大宗金属价格进一步下行的 空间有限，行业有望维持长期高景气，尤其是铜铝更是如此。 ◼ 行情回顾：大宗金属整体回升：1）周内，LME 铜、铝、铅、锌、锡、镍本周涨跌幅 为 2.5%、0.5%、0.0%、-1.1%、1.2%、3.5%，SHFE 铜、铝、铅、锌、锡、镍的涨 跌幅为 2.5%、1.6%、-0.7%、1.4%、1.7%、1.0%；2）COMEX 黄金收于 2646.20 美元/盎司，环比上涨 1.36%，SHFE 黄金收于 590 ...

【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】化工孙颖：2024Q2 收入盈利同比略增，资本开支已连续 3 个季度负增 证券研究报告 2024 年 9 月 22 日 [Table_Industry] [T[分Taa析bbll师ee__：TMi戴tlea志]in锋] 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email： 【固收】肖雨：转债后市怎么看？ 【固收】肖雨：曲线形态如何影响信用组合收益？ 【医药】祝嘉琦：P-CAB：开启抑酸新时代，打造消化创新生态 【化工】孙颖：2024Q2 收入盈利同比略增，资本开支已连续 3 个季度负 增——基础化工行业 2024 年半年报总结 【建材】孙颖：顺周期探底修复，关注药玻等成长性兑现 研究分享>> 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 【宏观】张德礼：财政收入与支出增速双回落——2024 年 8 月财政数据 解读 【固收】肖雨：银行大幅增持，基金减持政金债——8 月中债登、上清所 托管数据点评 【计算机】闻学臣：历史低位，静待基本面拐点 晨报内容回顾： 电话： 今日重点>> [b_Suy 今日预览 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 晨会聚焦 今日重点 ►【固收】肖雨：转债后市怎么看？ 肖雨｜ 中泰固收 ...

中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 1 | 证券研究报告 | 顺周期探底修复，关注药玻等成长性兑现 ——2024年建材行业中报总结 2024 . 9 . 2 2 分析师：孙颖 博士 建材&化工首席 执业证书编号：S0740519070002 Email：sunying@zts.com.cn 分析师 刘铭政 执业证书编号：S0740524070003 Email：liumz01@zts.com.cn 分析师：聂磊 建材&化工联席首席 执业证书编号：S0740521120003 Email：nielei@zts.com.cn 投资观点 24H1地产端进一步承压，季度拆分来看建材各细分板块出现一些结构分化：随着信用减值压力逐步消退以及渠道结构优化等调整， 24Q2品牌建材板块盈利水平季度环比略有改善；水泥板块随着行业错峰力度加大，复价后板块盈利季度环比也有所修复；而对应 竣工端的浮法玻璃随着需求渐进下滑，供需矛盾开始暴露，板块盈利季度环比开始趋弱。玻纤板块量增价跌盈利承压，但随着复价 的推进以及出口景气回升，24Q2板块盈利降幅有所收窄，季度环比改善明显。药玻板块格局优异，在产品 ...

[评Ta级ble：_M增ai持n] （维持） 分析师：孙行臻 执业证书编号：S0740524030002 工信部再发重要设备更新指引文件，明确 2027 年改造目标。2024 年 9 月 20 日， 工信部发布了《工业重点行业领域设备更新和技术改造指南》，明确了工业软件和 工业网络设备的更新目标，旨在增强产业链供应链的韧性和安全性。政策目标为：1） 工业软件：到 2027 年将更新约 200 万套工业软件和 80 万台套工业操作系统，覆盖 石油、化工、航空、船舶等关键行业，提升供应链韧性。2）工业网络设备：将实现 80%规模以上制造企业网络化改造，部署超 100 万台边缘设备，并实施超 2 万个 "5G+工业互联网"项目。 Email：sunxz@zts.com.cn [基Ta本ble状_P况rofit] 上市公司数 332 行业总市值(亿元) 26914.97 行业流通市值(亿元) 14856.90 国家政策频出扶持工业软件更新，多地积极响应，目标逐级细化。2024 年以来，国 家多部委密集出台一系列政策，推动工业软件和设备的更新换代。工信部等 7 部委 发布的方案明确了到 2027 年的目标，包括工业设备 ...

、 [重Ta点ble公_F司in基anc本e]状况 简称 股价 (元) EPS PE PEG 评级 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 科达利 74.34 4.45 5.41 6.66 8.11 16.70 13.74 11.16 9.17 0.6 买入 宁德时代 185.60 10.03 11.97 14.75 17.59 18.51 15.51 12.58 10.55 0.8 买入 上能电气 34.89 0.80 1.57 2.35 3.21 43.70 22.22 14.85 10.87 0.2 买入 艾罗能源 58.48 6.65 2.97 5.00 6.84 8.79 19.69 11.70 8.55 -0.4 买入 德业股份 92.21 4.16 5.56 6.95 8.19 22.14 16.58 13.27 11.26 0.5 买入 东方电缆 46.37 1.45 1.84 2.51 3.14 31.89 25.20 18.47 14.77 0.9 买入 备注 ：股价数据取自 2024 年 9 月 20 日收盘价 。评级：增持（ 维持 ...

、 成交维持低位，北京取消普宅与非普宅认定标准 -行业研究周报 房地产 证券研究报告/行业研究周报 2024 年 9 月 22 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Revenue Analysis - In the first eight months of 2024, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, consistent with the previous value[1] - In August 2024, the national general public budget revenue was 12,113 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of -2.8%, widening from -1.9% in the previous month[1] - Central government revenue in August fell by 3.8% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 2.3% previously; local government revenue decreased by 1.9%, compared to a decline of 1.5% previously[1] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Major tax categories showed declines: consumption tax at -4.6%, personal income tax at -2.9%, and value-added tax at -1.7%, while corporate income tax increased by 20.0%[1] - The decline in value-added tax was less severe than the previous month, attributed to a low base effect from last year[1] - The corporate income tax's increase is likely temporary, influenced by the tax payment cycle, as August is typically a low month for corporate tax payments[1] Expenditure Trends - In August 2024, general public budget expenditure was approximately 18,000 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year decline of 6.7%, significantly below the seasonal average of 5.5%[1] - Infrastructure and livelihood-related expenditures saw notable declines, with infrastructure spending down by 12.8% and livelihood spending down by 7.8% compared to previous values of 12.6% and 1.8% respectively[1] - Debt service expenditures increased, which may limit the government's ability to spend on public services[1] Government Fund Performance - Government fund revenue in August decreased by 34.8% year-on-year, with land use rights transfer income being a major drag, down by 42.1%[1] - Government fund budget expenditure also fell by 14.0% year-on-year, widening from a previous decline of 5.2%[1] - The issuance of special bonds in August reached approximately 7,965 billion CNY, marking the largest monthly issuance in two years, but the cumulative issuance for the first eight months remains below last year's level[1] Overall Fiscal Outlook - The broad fiscal expenditure growth rate in August was -8.8%, a significant drop from July's 3.7%[1] - Cumulative fiscal expenditure for the first eight months was -2.9%, indicating a substantial gap from the annual target, necessitating an acceleration in expenditure to support growth[1] - Short-term fiscal policy is expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing the economy, with a focus on the pace of fiscal spending and consumption-driven policies[1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a bottom-up stock selection approach, suggesting that while the overall market sentiment is pessimistic due to policy disruptions, the pharmaceutical sector remains relatively insulated from macroeconomic impacts [3][5]. - It highlights the potential for structural opportunities within the sector, particularly in segments with strong fundamentals and low valuations, such as GLP-1 related companies and essential medical products [5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The pharmaceutical sector has underperformed, with a year-to-date return of -27.6%, compared to -6.7% for the CSI 300 index, indicating a 20.9% underperformance [3][11]. - Recent market dynamics show a 1.3% increase in the CSI 300 index, while the pharmaceutical sector declined by 0.8%, ranking last among 31 sub-industries [5][11]. Company Performance - Key recommended stocks include China Resources Sanjiu, Kangfang Biotech, Betta Pharmaceuticals, and others, all rated as "Buy" [2][3][17]. - The report notes that the average decline for recommended stocks was 2.27%, underperforming the pharmaceutical sector by 1.48% [3][17]. Valuation Metrics - The current valuation for the pharmaceutical sector is 18.4 times PE based on 2024 earnings forecasts, with a premium of 23.3% over the overall A-share market (excluding financials) [11]. - Using TTM valuation, the sector's PE stands at 22.0, below the historical average of 35.4, indicating potential for valuation recovery [11][14]. Industry Trends - The report discusses the impact of recent awards in the industry, such as the Lasker Awards, which recognize significant contributions in drug development, particularly in GLP-1 and cGAS-STING pathways [6][18]. - It also highlights ongoing developments in targeted drug research for infectious diseases and cancer, suggesting a focus on companies involved in these areas [3][6].