Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [4] Core Insights - The recent results of the national centralized procurement for batches 1-8 have been released, which is expected to benefit leading companies with scale effects, particularly those integrated in raw material and formulation production [6] - The procurement process involved 5.1 million medical institutions and 1,091 domestic and foreign companies, with 4,163 products selected from 1,020 companies, indicating a high participation rate and a stable supply of selected products [6] - The procurement cycle is set to last until the end of 2028, allowing selected companies to secure a three-year national market, which is beneficial for capacity planning and cost optimization [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry comprises 502 listed companies with a total market value of 73,023.15 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 67,026.08 billion yuan [2] Procurement Results - The procurement covers 316 commonly used drugs across 26 therapeutic areas, with a high selection rate of 93% for participating companies [6] - The average number of selected companies per product is 14, ensuring a diverse supply base and rich clinical choices [6] Competitive Landscape - The procurement reflects a shift in policy from "price reduction and expansion" to "price stability and quality assurance," favoring leading companies with compliance capabilities and scale advantages [6] - Companies like Huahai Pharmaceutical and Kelun Pharmaceutical have significant advantages in their respective fields, with high selection rates for major products [6] Future Outlook - The procurement process is expected to stabilize prices and industry expectations, moving the focus from "lowest price competition" to a comprehensive competition based on quality, capacity, compliance, and brand [6] - The new requirements for production experience and compliance are likely to accelerate the exit of smaller, weaker companies from the market [6]

Core Insights - The report discusses the potential for China's export share to increase, highlighting that despite recent challenges, there is room for growth in the global market [3][5] - It emphasizes that the decline in China's export share from its peak in 2021 is primarily due to factors such as export prices and exchange rates, rather than a decrease in competitiveness [3][4] Summary by Sections Export Share Trends - China's export share of global amounts reached a historical high of 14.9% in 2021 but has been below this level from 2022 to 2025 [3] - The analysis indicates that the decline in export share is not reflective of a loss in competitiveness, as the quantity of exports continues to rise [3][4] Factors Influencing Export Prices - Potential trade friction risks may limit the ability to lower prices for certain Chinese export products, while optimized export tax rebate policies could enhance export prices [4] - The report anticipates that the year-on-year decline in China's export prices will narrow, with a possibility of turning positive in certain phases due to a low base effect [4] Currency Exchange Rate Dynamics - Since 2022, there has been a divergence between China's trade surplus and the actual effective exchange rate of the RMB [4] - Increased use of RMB in international trade financing and payments is expected to enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets, potentially leading to RMB appreciation [4] Quantitative Assessment of Export Share - A quantitative assessment suggests that China's export share of global amounts is expected to begin a continuous recovery in 2026, stabilizing around 17% by 2030 [5] - This assessment indicates that there is still over a 2 percentage point potential increase in China's export share compared to current levels, suggesting resilience in future export growth [5]

Export Trends - China's export amount as a share of global exports peaked at 14.9% in 2021 but has been below this level from 2022 to 2025[5] - The share of China's export quantity in global exports is expected to increase from 13.2% in 2019 to 17.0% by the third quarter of 2025[12] - The decline in China's export amount share is attributed to low export prices and currency depreciation, with a cumulative price drop of 10.1% from 2023 to 2025[15] Factors Supporting Export Growth - China's export quantity share is projected to continue rising due to accelerated industrial upgrading and a shift towards high-value-added products[12] - The "Belt and Road" initiative has diversified China's export markets, increasing shares in emerging economies like ASEAN and Africa[17] - Trade friction risks are expected to limit further price declines, with potential for stabilization or slight increases in export prices due to policy adjustments[39] Currency and Economic Outlook - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate gradually, supported by a resilient export sector and a target for GDP growth of 4.5%-5.0% in 2026[61] - The yuan's effective exchange rate has declined by 16.12% since March 2022, but a recovery is anticipated as trade surpluses continue[56] - By 2025, the yuan is projected to appreciate by 4.4% against the dollar, with increased usage in international trade financing and payments[70]

医疗器械 渠道积淀筑底，自研驱动与战略拓展打开成长空间 可孚医疗（301087.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2026 年 02 月 11 日 | 评级： | 买入（首次） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 2,854 | 2,983 | 3,384 | 4,098 | 5,100 | | 分析师：祝嘉琦 | | 增长率 yoy% | -4% | 5% | 13% | 21% | 24% | | 执业证书编号：S0740519040001 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 254 | 312 | 359 | 436 | 551 | | Email：zhujq@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | -16% | 23% | 15% | 22% | 26% | | | | 每股收益（元） | 1.22 | 1.49 | 1.72 | 2.09 | ...

医疗器械 渠道积淀筑底，自研驱动与战略拓展打开成长空间 可孚医疗（301087.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2026 年 02 月 11 日 | 评级： | 买入（首次） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 2,854 | 2,983 | 3,384 | 4,098 | 5,100 | | 分析师：祝嘉琦 | | 增长率 yoy% | -4% | 5% | 13% | 21% | 24% | | 执业证书编号：S0740519040001 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 254 | 312 | 359 | 436 | 551 | | Email：zhujq@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | -16% | 23% | 15% | 22% | 26% | | | | 每股收益（元） | 1.22 | 1.49 | 1.72 | 2.09 | ...

指数震荡调整，可持续发展信披指南修订发布 ——北交所周报（1.26-1.30） 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：冯胜 执业证书编号：S0740519050004 Email：fengsheng@zts.com.cn 分析师：向兰 执业证书编号：S0740525020002 Email：xianglan@zts.com.cn 北交所基本状况 | 上市公司数 | 292 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 9,363.02 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 5,802.61 | 最近一年北证 50 VS 沪深 300 北交所 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 10 日 报告摘要 北交所行情概览： 1）整体行情：截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日，北证成份股 292 个，平均市值 32.07 亿元。 本周（2026 年 1 月 26 日-2026 年 1 月 30 日，下同）北证 50 指数涨跌幅-3.59%，收 盘 1531.55 点；同期沪深 300、创业板指、科创 50 涨跌幅分别为 0.08%、-0.09%、 -2.85%。本周北交所日均成交额为 287.31 亿元 ...

指数震荡调整，可持续发展信披指南修订发布 ——北交所周报（1.26-1.30） 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：冯胜 Email：fengsheng@zts.com.cn 分析师：向兰 执业证书编号：S0740525020002 Email：xianglan@zts.com.cn 北交所基本状况 | 上市公司数 | 292 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 9,363.02 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 5,802.61 | 最近一年北证 50 VS 沪深 300 北交所 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 10 日 执业证书编号：S0740519050004 报告摘要 北交所行情概览： 1）整体行情：截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日，北证成份股 292 个，平均市值 32.07 亿元。 本周（2026 年 1 月 26 日-2026 年 1 月 30 日，下同）北证 50 指数涨跌幅-3.59%，收 盘 1531.55 点；同期沪深 300、创业板指、科创 50 涨跌幅分别为 0.08%、-0.09%、 -2.85%。本周北交所日均成交额为 287.31 亿元 ...

详解 2025 年理财年度报告： 规模稳步增长，增配现金类资产 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：戴志锋 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 分析师：邓美君 执业证书编号：S0740519050002 Email：dengmj@zts.com.cn 分析师：陈程 执业证书编号：S0740525110001 Email：chencheng07@zts.com.cn 基本状况 上市公司数 42 行业总市值(亿元) 146,116.35 行业流通市值(亿元) 139,898.72 报告摘要 相关报告 业绩增速有望稳中向好，资产质量持 续优化》2026-02-08 贷款 5.1-5.25 万亿元，社融增速为 8.3%》2026-02-07 门 红 奠 定 全 年 业 绩 稳 健 基 调 》 2026-01-31 银行 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2026 年 02 月 09 日 风险提示事件：经济下滑超预期，经济恢复不及预期，数据更新不及时。 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 理财产品存续规模为 33.29 万亿元，同比增长 11.2%，全年合计增量为 3.34 万亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical sector, emphasizing the potential for investment in bottom assets within the industry [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in areas such as AI in medicine and innovative drug developments, while noting the recent market performance where the pharmaceutical sector outperformed the broader market [11][26]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring key milestones and data updates from major conferences in 2026, such as AACR and ASCO, which could significantly impact investment decisions [11]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector has shown a return of 3.28% since the beginning of 2026, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.99 percentage points [26]. - Recent weekly performance indicates a slight increase in the pharmaceutical sector by 0.14%, while the broader market declined by 1.33% [11][26]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several key areas for investment, including: - IO plus strategies involving VEGF dual antibodies, which are gaining traction in clinical trials [12]. - ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugates) with a focus on large indications and new indications that could enhance overseas mapping [14]. - The development of new RAS inhibitors and their potential in treating various cancers, highlighting companies like 加科思 and 劲方生物 [15]. - The commercial potential of CDK4/6 inhibitors in HR+ breast cancer, particularly as patents expire [16]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - 药明生物, 泰格医药, 先声药业, 康弘药业, 普洛药业, 美好医疗, 迪安诊断, 和铂医药-B, 药石科技, and 天宇股份, all of which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [8][19]. - It notes that the pharmaceutical sector's current valuation is 22.8 times PE based on 2026 earnings forecasts, indicating a premium over the broader A-share market [30]. Clinical Developments - The report discusses various clinical trials and their implications, such as: - The anticipated data readouts for several ADCs and dual antibodies in 2026, which could significantly influence market dynamics [17][20]. - The ongoing advancements in small nucleic acids and their expected commercialization, which could lead to substantial market growth [19][23]. Regulatory Environment - The report highlights the regulatory landscape, noting that the National Medical Insurance Administration will intensify oversight in 2026, which may impact pharmaceutical companies [22]. Overall Sector Outlook - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical sector, suggesting that despite recent market fluctuations, there are significant opportunities for growth and investment, particularly in innovative therapies and technologies [11][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical sector [5] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a rebound in bottom assets, particularly in traditional Chinese medicine, medical services, and pharmacies, driven by market rotation and price increase expectations in raw materials [7][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on bottom assets that are expected to see turning points and well-adjusted innovative drug sectors, with a positive outlook on growth directions representing the future of the pharmaceutical industry [11] - Key themes include continuous attention to pharmaceutical and medical AI+, as well as significant data updates expected from major conferences in 2026 [11] Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The pharmaceutical sector has outperformed the broader market, with a return of 3.28% compared to the Shanghai Composite's 0.29% since the beginning of 2026 [26] - The report notes that the pharmaceutical sector's valuation is currently at 22.8 times PE, with a premium of 11.7% over the overall A-share market [30] Key Company Performance - Recommended stocks for February include WuXi Biologics, Tigermed, and others, with a focus on companies that have shown significant pipeline progress or business development expectations [8][36] - The report highlights the performance of companies like Guangsheng Tang and Nuo Cheng Jian Hua, which have made notable advancements in their core pipelines [36] Industry Trends - The report discusses the trend of combining IO plus therapies and the development of new targets in the dual antibody space, indicating a growing trend in clinical applications [12][14] - Attention is drawn to the ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) sector, particularly large indication FIC (First-in-Class) products and the potential for new indications to enhance overseas mapping [14][17] - The report also highlights the evolving landscape in blood cancers, with new therapies showing promise in previously underserved areas [20]