Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Increase" for the coal industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The coal price rebound is expected to exceed expectations due to continuous improvement in supply and demand margins [1]. - The report highlights strong support for coal prices driven by increased electricity demand during high-temperature weather, with significant historical peaks in power load recorded [7]. - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to create long-term uncertainties in domestic coal supply, while short-term supply is affected by heavy rainfall [6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market value of 17,077.38 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 16,672.70 billion yuan [2]. 2. Price Tracking - The report notes that the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port was 637 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9 yuan/ton [8]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines was 5.642 million tons, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous week [8]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the demand for thermal coal is expected to rise due to increased electricity consumption during the summer heat, with a historical peak load of 2.52 million kilowatts recorded in the southern power grid [7]. - The supply side is constrained by heavy rainfall affecting production capacity, with the utilization rate of coal mines in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions at 80.4% [6]. 4. Company Performance and Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include Yancoal Energy, Guohui Energy, and Shanxi Coal International, which are expected to benefit from the rebound in coal prices [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-elasticity stocks in the coal sector, particularly those related to thermal and coking coal [6][7].

A H 股市场周度观察（7 月第 2 周） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2025 年 07 月 12 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 港股： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 分析师：张文宇 【市场走势】本周市场整体上涨，小市值板块整体涨幅较大。而中大盘价值板块走势 相对承压。指数方面，本周中证 2000 指数上涨 2.32%，创业板指上涨 2.36%，而上 证 50 指数仅上涨 0.60%，涨幅相对较小。成交额方面，本周日均成交额达到 1.50 万 亿，环比增加 3.80%。 相关报告 1、《OBBB 法案通过后，特朗普开始 【深入剖析】本周市场整体上涨，其中地产链板块涨幅较大。房地产本周上涨 6.06%， 钢铁上涨 3.90%，建材上涨 3.07%，建筑上涨 2.71%。近期各大行业发文"反内卷"， 引发市场对于限产的预期，部分周期板块上周强势表现延续至本周。另一方面，近期 市场对于地产与城市更新的政策预期上升，带来地产链板块整体上涨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a new consumption-boosting plan introduced by Beijing, while both new and second-hand housing transactions have shown a month-on-month decline [1][8] - The real estate sector has outperformed the broader market, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index rising by 6.12% compared to a 0.82% increase in the CSI 300 Index, resulting in a relative return of 5.3% [5][13] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index increased by 6.12%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 0.82%, indicating strong sector performance [5][13] 2. Industry Fundamentals - For the week of July 4-10, the total number of new homes sold in 38 key cities was 25,620 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.9% but a month-on-month decline of 36%. The total transaction area was 2.092 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 18% and a month-on-month decrease of 54.2% [6][20] - In the same week, the total number of second-hand homes sold in 16 key cities was 16,990 units, showing a year-on-year decline of 10% and a month-on-month decline of 6.7%. The total transaction area was 1.692 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 5.4% [6][38] - The inventory of commercial housing in 17 key cities was 187.848 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a depletion cycle of 142.6 weeks [6][51] 3. Company News - China Merchants Shekou reported a signed sales area of 695,000 square meters and a sales amount of 21.748 billion yuan in June 2025. For the first half of 2025, the cumulative signed sales area was 3.35 million square meters, with a total sales amount of 88.894 billion yuan [17][19] - Gemdale Group announced a signed area of 262,000 square meters in June 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 41.39%, with a signed amount of 3.1 billion yuan, down 53.24% year-on-year [17][19] - Huaxia Happiness expects a net profit loss of between 5.5 billion and 7.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of 4.849 billion yuan in the same period last year [18][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight", with an expected increase of over 10% compared to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [25] Core Viewpoints - The recent rally in commodity prices is a result of the resonance between supply disruptions and improved expectations, and there are four "suspicious points" in this rally [1] - The divergence between commodity prices and PPI is due to the stickiness of spot prices and the time - lag in price transmission. If the current trend continues, PPI is likely to rebound [1] - For the bond market, the significance of monitoring commodity prices lies in re - inflation and the market's ability to distinguish between supply - side and demand - side factors. There is a risk of adjustment if expectations boost the fundamentals [1] Summary by Directory Suspicious Point 1: Long - lasting and High - amplitude Increase - The commodity rally has lasted for a month, the longest this year, and has recovered nearly 50% of the decline since the tariff announcement. Technically, it seems more like a market reversal than a short - term rebound [1][4] Suspicious Point 2: Driven by Seemingly Random Factors but with a Rising Price Center - The rally can be divided into three stages: the first stage (604 - 612) was a technical rebound after the release of pessimistic sentiment; the second stage (613 - 624) saw prices rise and then fall due to the Israel - Iran war; the third stage (625 onwards) was driven by the "anti - involution" market. After these stages, the industrial product price index rose by 5.6% compared to June 3 [7][8] - The rising price center is due to three reasons: low prices leading to a high probability of upward movement, improved pessimistic expectations after the China - US leaders' call, and the seasonal tendency for prices to rise during the safety inspection and maintenance months of June and July [10][11] Suspicious Point 3: Lack of Demand - side Support for the Price Rebound - From the perspectives of fundamentals and price spreads, the demand side has been weak. The "old economy" related to real estate has not reversed its weakness, and the real estate market shows "weak volume and price" [15] - There is a divergence between futures and spot prices for some commodities, with the price increase mainly reflecting expectations rather than actual demand [17] Suspicious Point 4: The Commodity Rebound Has Not Yet Appeared in PPI - In June, PPI remained weak, with the year - on - year figure dropping by 0.3 percentage points compared to May. The divergence is due to the stickiness of spot prices and the time - lag in price transmission [19] - The weekly production materials price index has rebounded for three consecutive weeks since June. If the current trend continues, PPI is likely to rebound in July [20] Impact on the Bond Market - The significance of monitoring commodity prices for the bond market lies in re - inflation and the market's ability to distinguish between supply - side and demand - side factors [1] - Currently, the risk of a fundamental reversal in commodity prices is low, but the price rebound may be transmitted to inflation. There is a high possibility of improvement in July's PPI [1] - In the long run, commodity prices depend on the relative changes in supply and demand. If expectations boost the fundamentals, there is a risk of adjustment in the bond market [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [3][11]. Core Views - The company is actively expanding into the field of embodied intelligence and AI quality inspection, which are seen as key growth areas. The report highlights the company's efforts in developing a comprehensive system for humanoid robots that integrates perception, decision-making, and execution [4][6]. - The AI quality inspection sector is identified as one of the fastest-growing applications of AI in manufacturing, with the company leading in this area through innovative platforms and technologies [6][8]. - The report adjusts profit forecasts for the company, projecting net profits of 210 million, 265 million, and 327 million yuan for 2025 to 2027, respectively, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 911 million yuan in 2024, 1,103 million yuan in 2025, 1,331 million yuan in 2026, and 1,595 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of -3% in 2024 and 21% in subsequent years [3][9]. - The company's net profit is expected to recover significantly, with a forecasted growth rate of 54% in 2025 and 26% in 2026 [3][9]. Business Development - The company is enhancing its product offerings in the humanoid robot sector, focusing on AI, vision, and motion control technologies. This includes the acquisition of Dongguan Tailai to enter the linear motor market [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI quality inspection in various industries, particularly in the 3C sector, where the company has established multiple successful case studies [7][8]. Market Trends - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing rapid growth, with increasing demand in industrial, medical, and logistics applications. The report suggests that as technology matures, there will be significant opportunities in the consumer market as well [5][6].

证券研究报告/策略专题报告 2025 年 07 月 09 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 科创板全景画像：把握硬科技成长与制度红利双重驱动 ——兴业上证科创板综合价格 ETF 投资价值分析 | 一、政策持续加码,资本市场支持科创再提速 . | | --- | | 1.1 政策持续促进资源向新产业、新业态、新技术领域集聚 . | | 1.2、科创板政策先行:更好发挥科创板改革"试验田"作用 . | | 二、科创板：承载科技强国使命，服务"硬科技"发展………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 4 | | 2.1 中美竞争博弈不断升级、中国科技创新突破重围 | | 2.2 行业分布:科创板"硬科技"浓度高,注重服务"新质生产力"发展 5 | | 2.3 政策利好叠加产业突破,科创板未来可期 . | | 三、科创价格指数: 捕捉全板块红利的策略工具 . | | 3.1、科创价格指数成份股覆盖全面、代表性广 . | | 3.2、科创价格指数收益风 ...

竞争环境改善，缓解行业"内卷"压力 ——从天茂集团无法披露定期报告看当前中小险企经营挑战 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：葛玉翔 执业证书编号：S0740525040002 Email：geyx01@zts.com.cn 分析师：蒋峤 执业证书编号：S0740517090005 Email：jiangqiao@zts.com.cn | 上市公司数 | 6 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 31,413.48 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 31,402.84 | 利板块再迎催化，保险股迎双击》 2025-06-13 保险Ⅱ 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2025 年 07 月 08 日 报告摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 事件：天茂集团原定于 2025 年 4 月 29 日披露 2024 年年度报告和 2025 年第一季度 报告。因公司定期报告涉及的部分信息需要进一步核实、补充完善，公司未能完成 2024 年年报的编制工作，公司无法在法定期限内（2025 年 4 月 30 日）披露上述定期报告。 公司股票已自 2025 年 5 月 6 日开市起停牌，将于 2025 年 7 月 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights investment opportunities in the media sector for the second half of 2025, focusing on AI applications, IP commercialization, cultural exports, and dividend-yielding assets [5][6]. AI Applications - The report emphasizes the continuous iteration of AI technology, particularly in education, film, and gaming, predicting strong commercial prospects in these areas due to enhanced input-output capabilities of large models [8]. - Companies leading in AI applications include DouShen Education, Rongxin Culture, and others, which are expected to benefit from the growing demand for AI-enhanced educational tools and content creation [5][6]. IP Commercialization - The IP industry is identified as a high-growth sector with significant potential for commercialization, particularly in empowering both the digital and real economies [9][10]. - The report notes that the retail sales of licensed products in China are projected to reach 1550.9 billion yuan by 2024, indicating a strong market for IP-related products [15][46]. Cultural Exports - The report points out that China's overseas market infrastructure is well-established, with platforms like TikTok and AliExpress facilitating cultural exports, particularly in short films and IP-based products [19][16]. - The growth of cultural exports is supported by the increasing number of overseas stores and the efficiency of logistics services, which are expected to enhance the pace of cultural content going abroad [19][16]. Dividend-Yielding Assets - In a low-interest-rate environment, the report suggests that assets with strong cash flow and high dividend yields, such as publishing and media companies, are becoming increasingly attractive for investors [20][21]. - Companies like Xinhua Wenhui and others are highlighted as having significant dividend advantages, making them appealing investment opportunities [6][20]. Gaming Industry - The gaming sector is projected to grow significantly, with a total market size of 141.1 billion yuan in early 2025, driven by mobile gaming [70][71]. - Government policies are increasingly supportive of the gaming industry, with initiatives aimed at promoting innovation and easing regulatory processes [71][72]. Short Video Market - The short video market is expected to reach a scale of 504.4 billion yuan by 2024, with a significant user base projected to exceed 6.62 billion [86][87]. - The report indicates that the growth of short video applications is being driven by both domestic and international demand, with notable increases in user engagement and revenue [89][90].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" policy signals the country's high - level attention to the "involution" phenomenon, especially in some over - capacity industries. The capital market has responded positively, but commodities and cyclical stocks are likely to have a "phased, limited - amplitude" rebound rather than a continuous bull market like in 2016 [6][7] - The current market is in a volatile range. Investment hotspots are concentrated in technology, military, and state - owned enterprises and public utilities sectors [7] Summary by Directory Market Observation - **Impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the market**: The Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission's "anti - involution" policy has led to significant rises in relevant sectors. The policy aims to optimize the industrial structure and improve the market environment. However, due to weak demand and limited capacity adjustment space, commodities and cyclical stocks will have a limited - amplitude rebound [6][7] - **Investment suggestions**: - **Technology sector**: In July, technology may be the elastic main line. Reduced Trump policy uncertainty, the "big and beautiful" fiscal bill, and the domestic "15th Five - Year Plan" all support the technology sector [7] - **Military sector**: Driven by NATO's defense budget increase and the expectation of a high - profile military parade in China, military stocks are expected to perform well [7] - **State - owned enterprises and public utilities sectors**: Given the weakening real - estate momentum and other factors, these sectors have good allocation value in the third quarter [7] Market Review - **Market performance**: Most major market indices rose last week, with the ChiNext 50 having the largest increase of 1.93%. Among major industries, the healthcare and financial indices performed well, while the information technology and real - estate indices were weak [10][11][19] - **Trading volume**: The average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A Index last week was 14414.07 billion yuan, down from the previous value, but still at a relatively high historical level [24] - **Valuation tracking**: As of July 4, 2025, the PE_TTM of the Wind All - A Index was 19.97, up 0.25 from last week, and in the 77.30% historical quantile (in the past 5 years). 25 out of 30 Shenwan primary industries saw valuation repairs [30] Economic Calendar - This week, important domestic economic data include China's foreign exchange reserves, CPI, and PPI. Overseas, there are euro - zone retail sales data, the US M2 money supply, and important events such as the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow economic growth forecast and the Fed's FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes [32]

产业趋势已至，持续看好金融 IT 计算机 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2025 年 07 月 07 日 | 评级： 增持（维持） | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：闻学臣 | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740519090007 | 宇信科技 | 28.58 | 0.47 | 0.55 | 0.61 | 0.72 | 0.86 | 60.81 | 51.96 | 46.47 | 39.84 | 33.15 | 买入 | | | 京北方 | 23.30 | 0.79 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.47 | 0.55 | 29 ...