科达利（002850.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 26 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：曾彪 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 10,511 | 12,030 | | 15,399 | 18,739 | 22,695 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | 21% | 14% | | 28% | 22% | 21% | | 执业证书编号：S0740522020001 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,201 | 1,472 | | 1,868 | 2,327 | 2,853 | | Email：zengbiao@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | 33% | 23% | | 27% | 25% | 23% | | | | 每股收益（元） | 4.39 | 5.38 | | 6.83 ...

| | | 汽车零部件 执业证书编号：S0740523020004 Email：hejy02@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740525010002 Email：wangyue07@zts.com.cn 分析师：刘欣畅 执业证书编号：S0740522120003 Email：liuxc03@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740523020003 Email：maoyx@zts.com.cn | | | | 总股本(百万股) | 250.06 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 213.68 | | 市价(元) | 34.61 | | 市值(百万元) | 8,654.63 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 7,395.52 | 1、《无锡振华 2024 年报及 2025 年 一季报点评：》2025-04-29 2024-12-11 无锡振华 2025 年中报点评： 下游优质客户齐放量，2Q25 毛利率创单季度新高 无锡振华（605319.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 26 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1][4][7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 76.04 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 0.80%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.76 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.79% year-on-year [5] - The company aims to strengthen product-driven strategies and explore channel potential, focusing on new product development and customized offerings for retail partners [5] - Future revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 157.32 billion, 167.04 billion, and 176.46 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 4%, 6%, and 6% respectively [5] Financial Summary - Total shares outstanding are 333.29 million, with a market price of 77.06 yuan, leading to a market capitalization of 25,683.25 million yuan [2] - The company's revenue forecast for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E is 14,045 million, 15,127 million, 15,732 million, 16,704 million, and 17,646 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 15%, 8%, 4%, 6%, and 6% [4][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years is projected at 1,478 million, 1,485 million, 1,361 million, 1,493 million, and 1,617 million yuan, with growth rates of 34%, 0%, -8%, 10%, and 8% [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [4][8]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit of 5.32 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.51%, despite a revenue decline of 8.57% to 7.66 billion yuan [6]. - The company plans to distribute a mid-term cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 156 million yuan, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [6]. - The company is undergoing expansion projects on the莞深高速 highway, with an investment of 8.63 billion yuan in H1 2025, which is expected to enhance future revenue streams [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 7.66 billion yuan, down 8.57% year-on-year, while net profit rose to 5.32 billion yuan, up 20.51% [6]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities saw a significant increase of 332.74%, reaching 9.31 billion yuan [6]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for H1 2025 was 0.5122 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.45% [6]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.81 billion yuan, 8.93 billion yuan, and 9.31 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.85 yuan, 0.86 yuan, and 0.90 yuan [6][7]. - The report anticipates a decline in revenue for 2024, followed by a slight recovery in subsequent years, with growth rates of -64% in 2024 and modest increases thereafter [4][7]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 13.6X, 13.5X, and 12.9X respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [4][6]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be around 9% in 2025, gradually declining to 8% by 2027 [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [4][11]. Core Views - The company achieved a stable revenue of 2.93 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a slight net profit increase of 0.4% year-on-year [5]. - Strong growth in third-party B-end and overseas markets, with third-party revenue reaching 2.064 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [6]. - The report anticipates a positive trend in third-party business, while the performance of related parties is under pressure due to reduced sales to Hai Di Lao [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 6.156 billion yuan for 2023, with projected revenues of 6.540 billion yuan for 2024 and 6.879 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting growth rates of 0% and 6% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 853 million yuan, with forecasts of 739 million yuan for 2024 and 818 million yuan for 2025, indicating a year-on-year decline of 13% for 2024 but a recovery in subsequent years [4][6]. Revenue Breakdown - Third-party revenue categories include: - Hot pot condiments: 925 million yuan, up 7.5% year-on-year - Chinese mixed seasonings: 451 million yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year - Convenient fast food: 645 million yuan, up 3.5% year-on-year [6]. - The company has established a sales team for B-end products, enhancing its service offerings to B-end clients and distributors [6]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 29.5%, while the net profit margin remained stable at 10.6% [6]. - The report projects net profit growth rates of 11% for 2025 and 13% for 2027, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to reach 0.79 yuan in 2025 and 0.99 yuan in 2027 [4][6]. Valuation Ratios - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 17.1 for 2025 and 15.3 for 2026, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 3.1 in 2024 to 2.7 in 2025 [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [2]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading comprehensive logistics provider, achieving record high performance. It has rapidly transformed from a leading express delivery service provider in China to a global comprehensive logistics service provider through its "1 to N" expansion strategy. The company benefits from steady growth in express delivery, ongoing diversification strategies, improved profitability from new businesses, and significant cost reduction and efficiency gains [6][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company aims to become a global leader in smart logistics solutions, having established a strong market position in China since its inception in 1993. It has undergone three major development phases: focusing on domestic express logistics, diversifying its services, and now positioning itself for global comprehensive logistics [19][21]. 2. Competitive Advantages - The company possesses a unique business model characterized by direct management, comprehensive logistics, and independent third-party services. This model ensures high service quality, significant resource advantages, and substantial growth potential [7][46]. 3. Cost Reduction and Lean Management - The company has implemented a multi-network integration strategy that has led to significant cost reductions, with cumulative savings exceeding 3.8 billion yuan from 2021 to 2024. The operational model has been simplified to enhance efficiency, with automation and unmanned logistics being key components [8][36]. 4. Growth Potential - The express delivery business is expected to grow, driven by consumer and industrial demand. The company anticipates an 11.8% year-on-year increase in express delivery volume in 2024, with significant contributions from e-commerce returns and industrial logistics [9][11]. 5. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 312.49 billion yuan, 339.27 billion yuan, and 370.38 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 11.86 billion yuan, 14.01 billion yuan, and 16.22 billion yuan. The report emphasizes the company's strong competitive advantages and high growth potential, leading to a positive long-term investment outlook [14][18].

创新药产业链多家龙头半年盈喜， "全球新"资产加速奔跑 行业-市场走势对比 迎来产业加速发展期》2025-08-21 2、《创新药械行情持续，细分赛道 景气度提升》2025-08-17 3、《创新药械长牛，把握业绩、技 2025-08-11 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：祝嘉琦 | | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740519040001 | | | 药明生物 | 32.92 | 0.84 | 0.82 | 0.97 | 1.19 | 1.49 | 39. ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the bond market continues to exhibit weakness, with interest rates on the rise and a widening yield spread, particularly between 10-year and 30-year government bonds, which closed at 1.7818% and 2.0775% respectively, reflecting increases of 3.5 basis points and 3.0 basis points from the previous week [4][9] - The "anti-involution" trend that had previously driven market dynamics has weakened, leading to a return to a focus on fundamental pricing, particularly in the commodity market, where prices have reverted to levels seen at the start of the "anti-involution" phase [5][6] - The report suggests that the bond market may struggle to respond positively to potential interest rate cuts, as the current environment favors equities and commodities over bonds, indicating a shift in asset allocation preferences [9][10] Fixed Income Analysis - The bond market has been under pressure due to a tightening liquidity environment, with the 10-year to 1-year yield spread closing at 41.1 basis points, an increase of 3.11 basis points from the previous week [4] - The report highlights a "see-saw" effect between equity and bond markets, where strong equity performance has suppressed bond market activity, leading to a perception of bonds as a "weak asset" [7][8] - The report notes that the bond market's price movements appear to be on a downward trajectory, with significant gaps in price action between equities and bonds, indicating a bearish outlook for bonds [8] Commodity Market Insights - The report identifies three main reasons for the recent decline in commodity prices: policy signals indicating a correction in the "anti-involution" trend, the approaching delivery month for major contracts affecting pricing dynamics, and the seasonal weakness typically observed in August [5][6] - Despite the recent downturn, there is an expectation that the "anti-involution" trend may still have momentum, particularly in sectors like new energy, where policy support continues to drive market sentiment [6] - The report suggests that the commodity market may experience a shift in trading logic from "selling on highs" to "buying on lows," as the fundamental demand remains stable [8] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The report indicates that the current market sentiment is characterized by a strong risk appetite, with significant inflows into equities as evidenced by rising financing balances [17] - The analysis of historical price and volume data suggests that the current market conditions may resemble previous bullish phases, particularly in 2014 and 2020, indicating potential for continued upward movement in the equity markets [12][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming geopolitical events and domestic policy developments, which could further influence market dynamics and investor sentiment [16][18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for H1 2025 was 12.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.36%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.42% [6] - The company is experiencing a short-term pressure on profits due to the ramp-up of new factories, but it is expected that profitability will gradually improve as production capacity is released [6] - The company is diversifying its customer base, which enhances its resilience against market uncertainties [6] - The forecast for revenue growth is 11% in 2025, 14% in 2026, and 13% in 2027, with net profit expected to be 3.5 billion yuan, 4.3 billion yuan, and 4.96 billion yuan respectively [6][4] Summary by Sections Basic Information - Total shares: 1,167 million - Market price: 54.26 yuan - Market capitalization: 63,321.42 million yuan [1] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecast for 2023A: 20.114 billion yuan, 2024A: 24.006 billion yuan, 2025E: 26.671 billion yuan, 2026E: 30.469 billion yuan, 2027E: 34.497 billion yuan - Net profit forecast for 2023A: 3.2 billion yuan, 2024A: 3.84 billion yuan, 2025E: 3.498 billion yuan, 2026E: 4.346 billion yuan, 2027E: 4.962 billion yuan - P/E ratios: 19.8 for 2023A, 16.5 for 2024A, 18.1 for 2025E, 14.6 for 2026E, 12.8 for 2027E [4][6] Performance Analysis - The company reported a gross margin of 21.85% for H1 2025, down 6.38 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 13.2%, down 3.17 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company is seeing significant growth in European customer revenue, particularly from high-potential clients like Adidas and On [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the development of the AI/AR glasses industry, with multiple new products anticipated to contribute to revenue and profit growth from H2 2025 to 2026 [5][6] - The company's revenue for H1 2025 was 37.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.0%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.42 billion yuan, an increase of 15.7% year-on-year [4][5] - The company has a strong vertical integration capability in the AI/AR glasses sector, with investments aimed at enhancing its core technologies and production capabilities [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A: 98.574 billion yuan, 2024A: 100.954 billion yuan, 2025E: 103.394 billion yuan, 2026E: 131.928 billion yuan, and 2027E: 163.630 billion yuan, with growth rates of -6%, 2%, 2%, 28%, and 24% respectively [2][6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.088 billion yuan in 2023A, 2.665 billion yuan in 2024A, 3.302 billion yuan in 2025E, 4.309 billion yuan in 2026E, and 5.517 billion yuan in 2027E, with growth rates of -38%, 145%, 24%, 31%, and 28% respectively [2][6] - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 13.5%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 3.7%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [4][5] Product and Market Insights - The company reported that its revenue from smart hardware, smart acoustic systems, and precision components for H1 2025 was 20.34 billion yuan, 8.32 billion yuan, and 7.60 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -2.5%, -34.9%, and +20.5% [5] - The company is positioned as a core manufacturer for Meta's upcoming consumer-grade AR glasses, which are expected to launch in September 2025, alongside other products from Xiaomi and Samsung [5][6] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for the company are 95.2 for 2023A, 38.9 for 2024A, 31.4 for 2025E, 24.0 for 2026E, and 18.8 for 2027E [2][6] - The projected P/B ratios are 3.4 for 2023A, 3.1 for 2024A, 2.9 for 2025E, 2.6 for 2026E, and 2.3 for 2027E [2][6]