分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 【市场回顾】 证券研究报告 信用业务周报 近期科技金融为何强势反弹？ 2025年6月30日 中泰证券研究所 图表：市场表现回顾 数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所 2 【市场观察】如何看待科技金融强势反弹？ 3 • 一、如何看待科技金融强势反弹？ • 近期A股科技板块强势反弹，背后是宏观风险缓解与市场风险偏好修复的共振结果。一方面，中东局 势超市场预期平息，大幅缓解市场地缘政治担忧，原油价格显著回落，带动通胀预期下降，流动性环 境改善，全球权益资产价格上涨；另一方面，特朗普近期在外交政策上的表态，特别是在以伊问题上 的处理降低了市场对其潜在执政不确定性的担忧，而这一点正是一季度部分资本离开美国避险的主要 原因，故近期美元资产回流，美股强于欧股、黄金走弱、美债收益率回落，形成与一季度全球资产组 合相对的"反向组合"。美债收益率下行和纳斯达克指数走强，不仅从流动性角度为A股提供支撑，也通 过科技股估值和情绪的外溢效应利好A股科技板块。这一逻辑亦与我们此前提示 ...

商保目录首次纳入调整方案，医疗保障法征求意见发布 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 报告摘要 医药板块跟随市场震荡上涨。本周沪深 300 上涨 1.95%，医药生物上涨 1.60%，处于 31 个一级子行业第 23 位，本周所有子板块均上涨，医疗服务、医疗器械、医药商业、 生物制品、中药、化学制药涨幅分别为 2.92%、2.10%、2.08%、1.97%、1.29%、 0.71%。本周医药各个子板块中，化学制药板块涨幅最小，创新药赛道在前期积累了 较大涨幅后，迎来短期阶段性调整，这也有利于产业逻辑的持续演绎。从基本面来看， 创新药仍是当前医药板块中产业趋势最为明确且具备未来成长空间的子行业，我们认 为全年维度创新药作为医药板块的投资主线不会变化，短暂调整后板块有望在分化中 持续上涨，在调整中建议坚守相对主流的优质创新药标的，以及将有 BD 或是数据催 化的公司。同时建议关注有积极变化的 AI 医疗/医药相关公司；Q2 逐步进入尾声，关 注 Q2 业绩较好，或者有望逐步走出困境的细分板块及个股。 相关报告 1、《回调不改创新药主线，政策助 2、《关注 ADA 会议催化，减重增肌 3、《创新行情持续火热，积极围绕 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [9]. Core Views - The company's operating indicators have shown significant improvement, driven by increased product volume and structural optimization, leading to revenue growth [3]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3,788 million in 2023, with a projected growth rate of 13% year-on-year, and is forecasted to reach 7,759 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is anticipated to grow from 109 million in 2023 to 550 million by 2027, with a remarkable growth rate of 213% in 2025 [3]. - The company is benefiting from high downstream demand and capacity release, particularly in gearbox components and wind power castings, which are expected to continue driving performance in the second half of 2025 [6]. - The company is also expanding its presence in the nuclear fusion sector, with successful applications of its products in this field, which may create new growth opportunities [6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 4,003 million in 2024, increasing to 6,107 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 52.6% [8]. - The net profit is expected to rise from 115 million in 2024 to 359 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 213.3% [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.50 in 2024 to 1.56 in 2025 [8]. Market Outlook - The report highlights a strong outlook for the wind power industry, with expectations of continued growth in both onshore and offshore installations, supporting the company's performance [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing demand in the nuclear fusion sector, which may enhance its growth trajectory [6]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 59.7 in 2023 to 11.8 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [3]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 1.8 in 2023 to 1.4 by 2027, reflecting a strengthening financial position [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][10][13] Core Insights - The company has exceeded expectations in its turnaround progress, achieving positive profitability in overseas markets for the first quarter of 2025 [3][4] - The domestic gross margin has significantly improved, and the company is accelerating its international expansion [3][4] - The company has launched three new models (B10, new C10, and new C16) in 2025, all performing well, with the new car cycle still ongoing [6][8] - The company has maintained a strong sales momentum, ranking first among new forces in sales for three consecutive months, with rapid expansion of its distribution network [9][10] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 10.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 187%, with a gross margin of 14.9%, marking a historical high [5] - The gross margin improvement is attributed to strategic partnerships, product mix optimization, and increased sales scale effects [5] - The net loss attributable to shareholders in Q1 2025 was 130 million yuan, a reduction in loss of 820 million yuan year-on-year [5] - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are 16.747 billion, 32.164 billion, 63.021 billion, 80.661 billion, and 96 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 35%, 92%, 96%, 28%, and 19% [3][10][12] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to turn positive in 2025E with 105 million yuan, and increase to 5.065 billion yuan by 2027E [3][10][12] Product Launch and Market Strategy - The B10 model launched on April 10, 2025, priced between 99,800 to 129,800 yuan, has shown strong sales performance [7] - The new C10 model launched on May 15, 2025, features multiple upgrades and a lower starting price, resulting in over 15,500 pre-orders within 24 hours [8] - The new C16 model launched on June 18, 2025, has expanded its customer base with the introduction of a five-seat version, enhancing market demand [8] Sales and Distribution - The company has achieved wholesale volumes of 37,000, 41,000, and 45,000 vehicles from March to May 2025, maintaining its leading position in the new forces sales ranking [9] - Cumulative export volume from January to May 2025 exceeded 17,200 vehicles, ranking first among new forces in cumulative export sales [9]

Group 1 - The report highlights the extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo for an additional three months, which is expected to lead to a significant increase in cobalt prices due to supply constraints [5][6][16] - The investment strategy recommends focusing on strategic minor metals such as rare earths and antimony, which are expected to see a revaluation in value due to tight supply conditions [5][6] - Rare earth prices are at a cyclical low, and with import controls on ores, the supply structure is becoming more concentrated, leading to an anticipated upward shift in price levels [5][6] Group 2 - In the lithium market, the report notes a decline in prices, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 60,000 yuan/ton, down 1.07% from the previous period [5][13][44] - The report indicates that the production of new energy vehicles in China saw a significant year-on-year increase, with May production and sales reaching 1.27 million and 1.307 million units, respectively, marking growth of 35% and 36.9% [20][21][27] - The photovoltaic sector also experienced growth, with a total of 104.93 GW of new installations in the first four months of 2025, representing a 75% year-on-year increase [18][19] Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of various metals, noting that the price of MB cobalt (standard grade) decreased by 0.32% to $15.63 per pound, while the price of MB cobalt (alloy grade) fell by 0.39% to $19.10 per pound [16][5] - Antimony prices remained stable, with domestic antimony ingot prices holding at 189,500 yuan/ton [5][6][16] - The report also highlights the ongoing price fluctuations in tin, with SHFE tin prices down 1.19% to 260,600 yuan/ton, amid uncertainties in Myanmar's mining operations [5][6][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gold industry [4][63]. Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve has decided not to cut interest rates, leading to a decline in gold prices. The report emphasizes the need to monitor the geopolitical situation in the Middle East closely. In the medium to long term, persistent inflation in the U.S. suggests that the economy has entered a "stagflation-recession" phase, and the restructuring of the U.S. dollar credit system is becoming a trend, which may lead to a sustained increase in gold prices [4][63]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The precious metals sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 4.82 percentage points. The sector fell by 5.27% week-on-week, lagging behind the CSI 300 index and the Shenwan Nonferrous Metals Index [4][14]. - As of June 20, the COMEX gold settlement price was $3,385.70 per ounce, down 1.94% week-on-week, while the COMEX silver settlement price was $36.02 per ounce, down 0.93% [4][13]. Economic Tracking - U.S. economic demand in May was below expectations, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 48.5, lower than the forecast of 49.2. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% [4][27]. - The U.S. May CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, below the market expectation of 2.5% [4][27]. Gold Investment Trends - As of May 2025, China's official gold reserves increased to 7,383 million ounces, marking the seventh consecutive month of increases. Additionally, gold ETF holdings rose by 11.51 tons to 1,388 tons [4][46][56]. - The current gold-silver ratio is 93.23, reflecting a decrease of 2.00 [4][59]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the gold industry, highlighting the potential for gold prices to rise amid ongoing inflation and geopolitical uncertainties [4][63].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of 5% to 15% over the next 6 to 12 months compared to the benchmark index [8]. Core Views - The company's performance is driven by external sales, with significant growth in revenue and profit expected due to capacity expansion and market recognition of its staple food products [5][6]. - The company is positioned as a quality player in the pet food industry, with a clear long-term growth path supported by ongoing capacity expansion and market development efforts [5][6]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenue for 2023 is 696 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 27%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 1,295 million yuan, with a growth rate of 12% [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 68 million yuan in 2023, growing to 144 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 59% in 2023 and 24% in 2027 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.66 yuan in 2023 to 1.40 yuan in 2027 [3]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve, with a notable increase in the gross margin to 22.87% in 2024, up 3 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Market Dynamics - The company has seen a 17.58% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, driven by growth in external sales and recognition of staple food products in overseas markets [5]. - The company’s inventory reached 130 million yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a 25.49% increase year-on-year, primarily due to increased procurement prepayments and inventory buildup for its Cambodian subsidiary [5]. - The Cambodian subsidiary is currently in a ramp-up phase, which has led to increased costs and short-term profit pressure, but is expected to contribute to future growth [5]. Growth Strategy - The company plans to enhance its domestic revenue share through innovation in product development and brand transformation, while also targeting high-growth markets in Southeast Asia and the U.S. [5][6]. - The domestic staple food revenue is projected to grow by 50.77% year-on-year in 2024, aligning with consumer preferences for high-value products [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the next 6 to 12 months [1]. Core Insights - The overall market of the North Exchange shows an upward trend, with the North 50 Index increasing by 5.62% during the period from June 3 to June 20, 2025, closing at 1347.46 points [4][10]. - The average market capitalization of the 267 listed companies on the North Exchange is 2.934 billion [4][10]. - The top five performing sectors in the A-share market during this period were telecommunications, banking, non-ferrous metals, electronics, and non-bank financials, with respective increases of 6.33%, 2.64%, 2.39%, 2.30%, and 1.07% [4][18]. Summary by Sections North Exchange Market Overview - As of June 22, 2025, the North Exchange comprises 267 constituent stocks, with an average market capitalization of 2.934 billion [4][10]. - The North 50 Index experienced a growth of 5.62% during the specified period, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 0.14%, and the ChiNext Index, which fell by 0.36% [4][10]. Sector Performance - The telecommunications sector led the A-share market with a growth of 6.33%, followed by banking at 2.64%, non-ferrous metals at 2.39%, electronics at 2.30%, and non-bank financials at 1.07% [4][18]. Individual Stock Performance - Out of the 267 stocks listed on the North Exchange, 77 stocks increased in value, while 189 stocks decreased, resulting in an increase ratio of 29% [4][20]. Key News - On June 16, 2025, the North 50 Index underwent a constituent stock update, enhancing its coverage of innovative enterprises aligned with the "specialized, refined, and new" characteristics of the index [4][25]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors expected to perform well in 2025, including data centers, robotics, semiconductors, consumer goods, and military information technology [4][26][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The solid-state battery sector is expected to enter a 2-3 year upward cycle, with potential improvements in performance and valuation [6] - The report highlights the successful delivery of core solid-state battery equipment by leading companies, indicating strong demand and technological advancements in the lithium battery industry [12][13] - The energy storage market is showing signs of recovery, with significant project registrations and increasing confidence in the sector for 2025 [22][25] - The electric power equipment sector is benefiting from rising electricity consumption and green electricity trading, with a notable increase in transaction volumes [23][25] Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Sector - The lithium battery industry is witnessing a positive trend, with companies like Xian Dao Intelligent and Xian Hui Technology successfully delivering solid-state battery equipment [6][12][13] - The report recommends companies such as CATL and Yiwei Lithium Energy for investment, highlighting their strong market positions [6] - The report notes a potential turning point in supply and demand for the lithium battery industry in 2025, suggesting a favorable environment for mid-term investments [6] Energy Storage Sector - In May, Anhui province registered 71 energy storage projects, with a total scale exceeding 2.5GWh, indicating robust growth in the sector [22] - The report discusses the recent adjustments in electricity pricing in Tianjin, enhancing the investment attractiveness of energy storage projects [20][21] - The energy storage market is expected to benefit from recovering demand in Europe and emerging markets, with key companies identified for investment [6] Electric Power Equipment Sector - The report highlights a 4.4% year-on-year increase in national electricity consumption in May, indicating a growing demand for electric power equipment [23][24] - The green electricity trading volume has surpassed 220 billion kWh in the first five months of 2025, reflecting a significant growth of nearly 50% year-on-year [25] - The report suggests focusing on high-voltage transmission companies as they are expected to benefit from increased investments in electric grid infrastructure [6] Photovoltaic Sector - The report notes a decline in silicon material prices and a weak demand for photovoltaic products, suggesting a challenging market environment [27][30] - The procurement results for photovoltaic inverters indicate a decrease in winning bid prices compared to the previous year, reflecting competitive pressures in the market [34] - The report emphasizes the importance of new technologies and leading companies in the photovoltaic sector for future growth [6] Wind Power Sector - The report outlines ongoing project approvals and bidding activities in the offshore wind power sector, indicating a steady pace of development [36][38] - Recent announcements of significant offshore wind power projects in various regions highlight the growing investment opportunities in this sector [40][41] - The report identifies key companies involved in offshore wind projects, suggesting potential investment opportunities [6]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the Israel-Iran conflict may escalate beyond a proxy level, with the potential for increased complexity due to direct U.S. involvement, which could catalyze oil prices [2][8] - The report highlights that the geopolitical tensions are likely to persist longer than previous conflicts, with the possibility of a prolonged standoff influenced by U.S. and Russian interests [3][8] Group 2 - The report notes a divergence within safe-haven assets, where the U.S. dollar strengthened while gold prices declined, attributed to hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and rising concerns over inflation and tariffs [4][12] - It is suggested that as long as the Israel-Iran conflict does not see substantial resolution, oil prices are expected to remain elevated, with potential for a pullback if Iran can quickly restore oil production or if negotiations lead to de-escalation [5][14] Group 3 - The report discusses the abnormal structure of the crude oil market, highlighting the widening term price differentials and the transformation of geopolitical risks into long-term premiums, indicating a new profit paradigm in the oil interest chain [14][16] - The report maintains a view on the U.S. dollar, predicting a short-term rebound but a long-term bearish trend, with many global investors planning to reduce their long-term dollar exposure [18]