Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the real estate sector, including Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and China Resources Land [1][1][1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the real estate sector is experiencing pressure on new home sales, with policies being implemented to stimulate demand. The cancellation of the distinction between ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties is expected to support market recovery [1][1][1]. - The report notes that the real estate index increased by 6.86% over the past week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 1.32% [2][2]. - The report emphasizes that while new home transactions remain under pressure, second-hand home sales are performing better, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1][1][1]. Weekly Market Review - The report indicates that the real estate index rose by 6.86%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.32%, resulting in a relative return of 5.54% [2][2]. - The top five performing stocks in the real estate sector included Electronic City and Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, while the bottom five included Zhongdi Investment and Tieling New City [2][2]. Industry News Tracking - Local policies have been introduced to promote stable and healthy development in the real estate market, including increased housing fund loan limits in various cities [3][4][5]. - The report mentions that the Beijing Municipal Committee has implemented measures to enhance the housing system, focusing on affordable housing and optimizing real estate policies [6][6]. Market Fundamentals - The report provides data on new home transactions in 38 key cities, showing a total of 16,240 units sold, with a year-on-year decline of 53.4% and a month-on-month decline of 15.5% [11][20]. - For second-hand homes, 12,287 units were sold in 16 key cities, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 31% and a month-on-month decline of 21.9% [22][22]. Company Announcements - Yuzhou Group announced the results of its offshore debt restructuring plan, which received the necessary support from creditors [7][8]. - Aoyuan Group reported an increase in overdue debts and ongoing legal challenges, indicating financial strain [7][8]. - Jindi Group held a performance briefing, emphasizing cash flow safety amid a challenging market environment [10][10].

、 煤价维持涨势，宏观预期修复 公司持有该股票比例 [Table_Report] 相关报告 煤炭 证券研究报告/行业周报 2024 年 9 月 22 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------|-----------------|-------------|---------------|---------|---------|--------|---------|----------------|-------|-------|-------| | 评级：增持（ 维持 ） \n分析师：杜冲 \n分析师：杜冲 执业证书编号： S0740522040001 | [Table_Finance] 重点公司基本状况 \n简称 | \n股价 ...

、 [重Ta点ble公_F司in基anc本e]状况 简称 股价 (元) EPS PE PEG 评级 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 科达利 74.34 4.45 5.41 6.66 8.11 16.70 13.74 11.16 9.17 0.6 买入 宁德时代 185.60 10.03 11.97 14.75 17.59 18.51 15.51 12.58 10.55 0.8 买入 上能电气 34.89 0.80 1.57 2.35 3.21 43.70 22.22 14.85 10.87 0.2 买入 艾罗能源 58.48 6.65 2.97 5.00 6.84 8.79 19.69 11.70 8.55 -0.4 买入 德业股份 92.21 4.16 5.56 6.95 8.19 22.14 16.58 13.27 11.26 0.5 买入 东方电缆 46.37 1.45 1.84 2.51 3.14 31.89 25.20 18.47 14.77 0.9 买入 备注 ：股价数据取自 2024 年 9 月 20 日收盘价 。评级：增持（ 维持 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sector [1]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is expected to benefit the export chain, particularly in the home furnishing sector, with a focus on the implementation of home improvement subsidies [1][3]. - The report highlights the potential for improved consumer demand in the home furnishing market due to recent subsidy policies aimed at stimulating consumption [3]. - The textile manufacturing sector is showing signs of recovery, with a narrowing decline in clothing exports and an increase in yarn production growth [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - From September 16 to September 20, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.21%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.15%. The light industry manufacturing index rose by 1.72%, ranking 13th among 28 Shenwan industries, and the textile apparel index rose by 1.04%, ranking 18th [6][8]. Key Industry News - The report notes that the cultural paper prices have stabilized, and with the peak season approaching, prices are expected to rebound. Recommendations include companies like Sun Paper and Xianhe Shares, which are positioned well in the market [3][9]. - The report also mentions that the home improvement subsidy policies in various regions are expected to significantly boost consumer demand, particularly benefiting smart home companies and those offering comprehensive home renovation services [3][19]. Key Data Tracking - The report tracks the performance of the home furnishing and textile sectors, noting a significant decline in property sales and new construction, which may impact demand in related industries [19][23]. - For the furniture manufacturing sector, revenue for the first seven months of 2024 reached CNY 364.39 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, while profit totaled CNY 17.79 billion, up 12.4% [32][36]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the smart home sector and those with high renewal demand in the soft furnishings segment, such as Bull Group and Kuka Home [3][36]. - It also highlights companies like Baiya Co., Taihua New Materials, and others as key investment opportunities due to their market positioning and growth prospects [1][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Kevin Education (002659.SZ) with a market price of 3.88 CNY [1]. Core Views - The report highlights the restructuring of voting rights and shareholding relationships, with Haiguo Investment becoming the largest shareholder of Kevin Education, which is expected to facilitate the company's future development [1][2]. - The new national policies are anticipated to provide institutional incentives, prompting attention to the subsequent changes in Kevin Education [1][2]. - The report maintains its profit forecast, projecting a net profit attributable to the parent company of 0.10 billion CNY in 2024, 0.58 billion CNY in 2025, and 1.09 billion CNY in 2026, corresponding to P/E ratios of 235.1, 39.9, and 21.2 respectively [1][2]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2022: 172 million CNY - 2023: 254 million CNY - 2024E: 307 million CNY - 2025E: 385 million CNY - 2026E: 492 million CNY - Year-on-Year Growth: 2023: 48%, 2024E: 21%, 2025E: 26%, 2026E: 28% [1][2]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2022: -97 million CNY - 2023: -50 million CNY - 2024E: 10 million CNY - 2025E: 58 million CNY - 2026E: 109 million CNY - Year-on-Year Growth: 2023: 49%, 2024E: 120%, 2025E: 489%, 2026E: 88% [1][2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024E: -0.16 CNY - 2025E: -0.08 CNY - 2026E: 0.02 CNY, 0.10 CNY, 0.18 CNY [1][2]. - **Cash Flow**: - Operating cash flow for 2024E is projected at 57 million CNY, increasing to 166 million CNY by 2026E [2]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - P/E ratios are projected to improve from -24.0 in 2023 to 21.2 in 2026 [1][2]. Shareholding Changes - The report notes that Haiguo Investment has become the largest shareholder of Kevin Education following the transfer of shares from Baidaochu Holdings, which has reduced its holding to 16% [1][2]. Industry Context - The report emphasizes the potential for Kevin Education to leverage resources from Haiguo Investment for stable business development and the preservation and appreciation of state assets [1][2].

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for the company [1] Core Views - Revenue growth remains steady with significant improvement in gross margin [1] - The company is in a rapid growth phase with increasing profitability potential [4] - Product capabilities have been upgraded, supporting the development of the domestic IT ecosystem [4] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 H1 reached 140 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.58% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was -191 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.89% [4] - Gross margin for 2024 H1 was 58.8%, an increase of 7.54% year-on-year [4] Revenue Breakdown - Big data infrastructure software business revenue was 114 million yuan, accounting for 81.77% of total revenue [4] - Application and solution business revenue was 24 million yuan, accounting for 17.05% of total revenue [4] - Financial industry contributed 39.69% of revenue, an increase of 7.31% year-on-year [4] - Government sector contributed 37.87% of revenue, an increase of 6.39% year-on-year [4] Expense Analysis - Sales expense ratio was 86.31%, an increase of 5.15% year-on-year [4] - Management expense ratio was 43.6%, a decrease of 6.07% year-on-year [4] - R&D expense ratio was 78.72%, an increase of 4.29% year-on-year [4] Product Development - TDH9.4 enhanced functionality and usability for large models and AI application scenarios [4] - Added support for Python ecosystem and provided distributed Python engine [4] - Introduced POSIX interface for handling massive AI training data [4] - Released a new generation of digital credit management system solution [4] - Selected as one of China's best domestic database vendors [4] Financial Projections - Revenue forecast for 2024-2026: 601/732/882 million yuan [1][5] - Net profit forecast for 2024-2026: -209/-138/-69 million yuan [1][5] - P/S ratio forecast for 2024-2026: 5/4/4 [5] Market Performance - Current market price: 26.58 yuan [1] - Total market capitalization: 3,212 million yuan [2] - Free float market capitalization: 2,458 million yuan [2] Industry Comparison - Company stock performance compared to CSI 300 index [3]

[Table_Industry] 券商风控指标规定点评：较意见稿修订幅度不大，适度优化资本空间 非银金融 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2024 年 9 月 22 日 [Table_ 评级：Invest 增持（] 维持 ） [Table_ 分析师：蒋峤 Authors] 执业证书编号：S0740517090005 Email：jiangqiao@zts.com.cn 分析师：戴志锋 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@r.qlzq.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 EEmail：daizf@zts.com.cn [Table_Profit] 基本状况 上市公司数 85 行业总市值(百万元) 4524691 行业流通市值(百万元) 1985567 [Table_QuotePic] 行业-市场走势对比 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 非银金融 沪深300 公司持有该股票比例 [Table_Report] 相关报告 《优化券商风控指标体系、再提并 购重组等事件点评》-2023.11.05 [投资要点 Table_S ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an **Overweight** rating for the banking sector [1] Core Views - The personal business loan (PBL) market has doubled in size over the past four years, reaching nearly **24 trillion yuan** by 1H24 [10] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for PBLs in sample banks has decreased by **58 basis points (bp)** to **1.26%** since 2019, but has shown an upward trend since the second half of 2023 [9] - High-risk PBLs, particularly those tied to real estate, are estimated to exceed **2 trillion yuan**, accounting for **9.3%** of the total PBL balance by 1H24 [31] - The impact of high-risk PBLs on bank asset quality and profitability is considered manageable, with potential NPL ratio increases ranging from **2 to 14 basis points** and profit impacts ranging from **-2.2% to -11.1%** [25] Personal Business Loan Overview - **Definition**: PBLs are typically 3-5 years in duration, with a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio generally not exceeding **70%** of the assessed property value [9] - **Market Size**: The national PBL market has doubled from **11.4 trillion yuan** in 2019 to **23.8 trillion yuan** by 1H24, driven by policy support for small and micro-enterprises [10] - **Structure**: Long-term PBLs (over one year) have seen higher growth compared to short-term PBLs, contributing significantly to the overall increase in PBLs [10] - **Listed Banks**: Listed banks account for **50%** of the national PBL market, with state-owned banks leading in expansion, growing over **3 times** in the past four years [11] High-Risk PBLs and Real Estate Linkages - **Real Estate Linkages**: PBLs have been increasingly used for real estate purposes, with a significant negative correlation between PBL growth and residential mortgage loan growth [16] - **High-Risk PBLs**: It is estimated that **2.21 trillion yuan** of PBLs flowed into the real estate market in 2021, with listed banks accounting for **50%** of this amount [25] - **Pressure Test**: If high-risk PBLs experience default rates of **10%-50%**, the overall NPL ratio for listed banks could increase by **2-14 basis points**, with profit impacts ranging from **-2.2% to -11.1%** [25] Mortgage Collateral Risk - **Collateral Value Decline**: The value of collateral for PBLs has declined, with national second-hand home prices falling by **8%-15%** from their peak in 2021 [20] - **Pressure Test**: If collateral values continue to decline by **19.4%-26.7%**, the collateral may fall below the LTV threshold, increasing the risk of defaults [25] Investment Recommendations - **Defensive and High-Dividend Stocks**: The report recommends investing in high-dividend, state-owned banks such as **Agricultural Bank of China**, **Bank of China**, and **Industrial and Commercial Bank of China** [3] - **Quality City and Rural Commercial Banks**: Banks like **Jiangsu Bank**, **Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank**, and **Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank** are highlighted for their strong fundamentals and attractive valuations [3] - **Core Assets**: In the event of a stronger economic recovery, core assets such as **China Merchants Bank** and **Ningbo Bank** are recommended [3]

中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 历史低位，静待基本面拐点 2 0 2 4 . 0 9 . 2 0 分析师：闻学臣 执业证书编号：S0740519090007 分析师：何柄谕 执业证书编号：S0740519090003 分析师：苏仪 执业证书编号：S0740520060001 联系人：刘一哲 联系人：王雪晴 投资要点 ◼ 上半年板块调整幅度大，估值和持仓均处于历史低位。年初时在小微盘股流动性危机下，计算机行业指数在Q1内经历 了暴跌与暴涨式修复。4月以来，计算机板块整体经营基本面持续承压，整体营收与盈利修复表现相对较弱，主动型投 资机构对计算机行业的配置力度持续降低，至24Q2末已创10年来新低配比，计算机（申万）指数也随之持续下探，并 于8月多次创下2018年以来的指数新低，计算机行业估值水平亦一路下探。 ◼ 后周期属性显现，整体基本面增长乏力。2024年以来宏观经济整体延续低迷的景气度，计算机行业作为后周期行业， 其经营情况开始受到经济增长放缓的影响，在24H1内呈现出收入、利润均承压的情况，且Q2经营情况要更差于Q1。 24H1计算机 ...

四季度"岁末年初"行情或呈现哪些特点？ 证券研究报告/策略周刊 2024 年 9 月 21 日 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 投资要点 Email:xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email:zhangwy01@zts.com.cn [Table_Report] 相关报告 ◼ 一、四季度"岁末年初"行情或呈现哪些特点？ 本周 A 股整体企稳，市场主要指数小幅回暖。9 月初公布的经济数据对市场的扰动 逐渐减缓，市场节后出现小幅超跌反弹，情绪出现一定好转。另一方面，美联储 降息 50bp，使得港股走强，一定程度上带动 A 股市场情绪。近期以电力设备、新 能源、创业板等为代表的出口链开始反弹，领涨市场。其背后原因在于美国大选 辩论中，哈里斯表现相对占优，进而降低了后续关税预期。 美国总统选举格局重塑后第一场电视辩论（特朗普 VS 哈里斯）于 9 月 10 日晚在 费城举行。整体而言，本次辩论哈里斯相对占优。根据民调网站 RCP 数据，辩论 结束后哈里斯当选预期出现明 ...