政府采购本国商品的经验、重点与效果 ——当前经济与政策思考 Email：xiazf01@zts.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 报告摘要 参考美国、日本和欧盟在推动政府采购本国产品方面的经验： 美国通过《购买美国产品法》、《贸易协定法》、《贝瑞修正案》等立法，确立优先采购 本国产品的原则，同时兼顾国际协定义务，针对中小企业和国防领域设立特殊支持和 例外。 日本名义上遵循世贸组织《政府采购协议》（GPA）透明原则，但通过高门槛技术标 准和合同拆分等隐性手段保护本土企业；其承诺覆盖范围有限，排除多类敏感产品与 服务。 相关报告 欧盟则强调公开竞争，早期以消除壁垒为主，但在 2014 年开始引入"战略性采购" 理念，将绿色、社会责任和创新纳入评标，加大本土中小企业参与力度，又在 2022 年实施《国际采购工具》，针对非互惠第三国设置限制。 从效果来看，即使只考虑 GPA 所覆盖的政府采购合同，美日欧的本国供应占比也均 高于 85%，其中日、美高于 95%。 美国政府采购重点从冷战时期的国防本土化，逐步转向支持技术创新、中小企业、绿 色与基建领域。日本则在保障国防与基建等敏感行业本土化的同时，对高技术 ...

Supply Side - The approach to eliminate outdated production capacity includes market-driven mergers and government guidance, as seen in Japan's steel industry where the number of major companies reduced from six to three, achieving a combined crude steel production share of 71.6% by 2011[8] - Japan's government encouraged mergers through tax incentives, leading to the formation of Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corporation, the world's second-largest steel company, with a crude steel production share of 80.7% by 2014[8] - China has also implemented market-oriented reforms to promote mergers and capacity elimination, resulting in the establishment of China Baowu Steel Group, the largest steel conglomerate globally[8] Demand Side - Japan's "National Income Doubling Plan" in the 1960s aimed to boost domestic demand, resulting in an annual income growth exceeding 10% and private consumption reaching over 60% of GDP[20] - From 1983 to 1989, Japan's construction investment surged from 27.5 trillion yen to 46.4 trillion yen, driving steel consumption by approximately 10.3 trillion yen[20] - The U.S. "Marshall Plan" from 1948 to 1952 provided $15 billion in aid to Europe, facilitating the export of surplus production and stimulating the U.S. economy[22] Policy Measures - The U.S. has established a comprehensive bankruptcy procedure allowing companies to reorganize during bankruptcy, maximizing value for stakeholders[24] - Japan's legislation in 1978 provided employment assistance for laid-off workers during capacity reduction, including job training and extended unemployment benefits[25] - Risk factors include unexpected fluctuations in overseas economies and potential delays in the update of public data used in the report[26]

Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The first technology innovation green corporate bond on the Beijing Stock Exchange was successfully issued on June 25, 2025, by China Communications First Highway Engineering Group Co., Ltd. with a total issuance scale of 300 million yuan[2] - The bond has a maturity of 60 days and an issuance interest rate of 1.60%, marking a historical low for short-term corporate bonds issued by central state-owned enterprises on the exchange[2][13] - Multiple financial institutions, including SPDB, Xiamen International Bank, Huaxia Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and CITIC Securities, participated in the subscription[2] Group 2: Bond Characteristics and Impact - This bond is characterized by both "technology innovation" and "green" labels, with all raised funds allocated to the green building sector[3][15] - The successful issuance supports the green transformation in infrastructure, promoting a high-quality development path through the integration of technology finance and green finance[3][15] Group 3: Support Measures and Future Outlook - The Beijing Stock Exchange has introduced nine specific measures to support the development of technology innovation bonds, including broadening the range of issuers and simplifying information disclosure[4][18] - The exchange aims to enhance financing support for the technology innovation sector and will continue to innovate bond varieties while strengthening the synergy between equity and bond markets[4][18] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as data centers, robotics, semiconductors, consumer goods, and military information technology for investment opportunities in 2025[4][17][20] - Specific companies highlighted include Krait (data center), Suzhou Axis (robotics), and Hualing (semiconductors), among others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance[4][17][20] Group 5: Risk Considerations - Potential risks include policy risk, liquidity risk, macroeconomic environment risk, and the risk of technological innovation not meeting expectations[21][22]

乘用车 北汽蓝谷：制定三年跃升计划提量增利，双品牌边际显著向好 北汽蓝谷（600733.SH） 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2025 年 07 月 03 日 | 评级： | 增持（首次） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：何俊艺 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 14,319 | 14,512 | 38,390 | 59,751 | 76,564 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | 50% | 1% | 165% | 56% | 28% | | 执业证书编号：S0740523020004 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | -5,400 | -6,948 | -4,341 | -1,244 | 1,388 | | Email：hejy02@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | 1% | -29% | 38% | 71% | 212% | | | | 每股收益（元） | -0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The successful issuance of the first technology innovation green corporate bond on the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) marks a significant milestone, combining both "technology innovation" and "green" labels [4][14] - The bond, issued by China Communications First Public Bureau Group Co., Ltd., raised 300 million yuan with a term of 60 days and an interest rate of 1.60%, setting a historical low for short-term corporate bonds in the exchange market [3][14] - The funds raised will be fully invested in the green building sector, providing financial support for the green transformation in infrastructure [5][14] - The BSE has introduced nine specific measures to support the development of technology innovation bonds, enhancing financing support for the technology innovation sector [7][12] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The BSE currently has 274 listed companies with a total market value of 845.857 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 511.769 billion yuan [1] Recent Developments - The issuance of the first technology innovation green corporate bond is a response to national strategies aimed at promoting financial support for green and technological advancements [14] - The BSE is actively conducting training and research to align funding with the needs of technology innovation enterprises [7][14] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as data centers, robotics, semiconductors, and consumer goods for potential investment opportunities in 2025 [9][13] - Specific companies highlighted include: - Data Centers: Krait and Shuguang Data Creation - Robotics: Suzhou Axis, Audiwei, Jun Chuang Technology, and Fuheng New Materials - Semiconductors: Hualing Co. and Kaide Quartz - Consumer Goods: Taihu Snow, Boshenglong, Lusi Co., Kangbiter, and Thunder Technology [9][13]

影视院线 执业证书编号：S0740515080001 Email：kangyw@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740523070003 Email：yansy@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 29,875.86 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 29,875.86 | | 市价(港元) | 0.96 | | 市值(百万港元) | 28,680.83 | | 流通市值(百万港元) | 29,875.86 | 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 "演艺+IP"双引擎，重构线下娱乐新基建 ——大麦娱乐首次覆盖 股价与行业-市场走势对比 一、大麦娱乐：国内领先的全产业链现实娱乐平台。大麦娱乐是一家主要从事内容制 作、宣传和发行、IP 衍生授权及商业运营、院线及娱乐活动票务管理，以及互联网数 据服务的投资控股公司。旗下电影业务累计参与了 300 余部电影的出品发行和推广， 旗下演出业务覆盖全品类现实娱乐票务类型。阿里巴巴集团系公司控股股东，管理层 互联网行业经验丰富且参与持股。23 年起，架构调整激活组织活力，增长进入快车道， 规模效应明显。 相关 ...

服装家纺 执业证书编号：S0740523030001 Email：zhangxiao06@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740523090002 Email：wush@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 11,544 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 11,544 | | 市价(港元) | 4.64 | | 市值(百万港元) | 53,565 | | 流通市值(百万港元) | 53,565 | 波司登（03998.HK） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 07 月 01 日 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 暖冬下 FY25 稳健增长，利润增速优于收入 股价与行业-市场走势对比 主品牌羽绒服稳健增长，全季化品类拓展带动增量。24/25 财年品牌羽绒服业务实现 营收 216.68 亿元（+11.0%），占集团收入 83.7%。毛利率为 63.4%，同比-1.6pct， 主要受经销商渠道销售增长较快、防晒服等新品类毛利略低及羽绒等原材料成本上涨 影响。1）波司登品牌收入同比+10.1%至 184.81 亿元，毛利率同比-0.6pct 至 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that the overall prices of industrial metals have risen, with LME copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc showing weekly changes of 2.3%, 1.3%, 2.3%, and 4.9% respectively [4][27] - The non-ferrous metal sector index outperformed the market, with the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metal Index closing at 5094.64 points, up 5.11% week-on-week, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.20 percentage points [4][25] - The report highlights that the decline in the US dollar index has led to a general increase in basic metal prices, suggesting limited downside potential for these prices in the long term [10] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share market has risen, with the non-ferrous metal sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [19] - Domestic metal prices have generally increased, with specific weekly changes noted for LME and SHFE metals [27] Macro Factors - In China, the PMI for May showed a slight recovery at 49.5, while the CPI remained negative at -0.1% [6][37] - The US GDP for Q1 was revised down to a year-on-year growth of 1.99%, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.5% [6][39] - European manufacturing PMI showed a slight recovery, while global manufacturing PMI continued to decline [7][45] Basic Metals Analysis - For electrolytic aluminum, the report notes a strong price increase due to low inventory levels and a declining dollar [8][47] - The aluminum processing sector's average operating rate decreased to 58.8%, indicating a slight decline in demand [9][47] - The report indicates that the global aluminum inventory has increased, with domestic aluminum ingot inventory rising to 505,000 tons [9][47] - In terms of profitability, the industry maintains a profit margin of over 3,000 yuan per ton, with current aluminum prices at 20,940 yuan per ton [9][47] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the industry, emphasizing the potential for price increases in rigid supply varieties like aluminum and copper [10]

国防军工 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 06 月 30 日 分析师：陈鼎如 执业证书编号：S0740521080001 Email：chendr01@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740523060003 9·3 阅兵在即，重视新域新质作战力量发展 Email：mamz@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 143 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 26,967.47 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 22,823.81 | | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | | 分析师：陈鼎如 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 202 ...

履约形态适配中国土壤，即时零售潜力或超预期 ——即时零售行业研究 评级： 增持（首次） 执业证书编号：S0740523110001 Email：suchang@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524040004 Email：zhengch@zts.com.cn | 上市公司数 | 59 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 5,581.43 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 5,247.73 | 一般零售 证券研究报告/行业深度报告 2025 年 06 月 30 日 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 分析师：苏畅 报告摘要 核心观点：受制于较高履约成本，即时零售在发源地美国现仍是小众市场。但在中国， 在强烈的便捷需求，与显著成本结构优势共振下，即时零售较大概率成为一种主流的 零售模式。美团在履约体系与用户心智上具有较为显著优势，即时零售业务的发展有 望为其提高估值潜力。 分析师：郑澄怀 各国零售行业演进的理念是一致的，但最优履约形态受到人口、城市形态等因素影响。 基于对零售行业国别对比研究，我们发现优秀的零售企业均有着一致的理念：为消费 者降低交易成本。但具体的履约形态，在 ...