【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收吕品：多空互加筹码，债市迎来 "验牌时刻" 证券研究报告/晨会聚焦 2026 年 02 月 09 日 分析师：戴志锋 2、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】医药祝嘉 琦：战略重视原料药板块，价格修复 +新业务增量；积极把握医药底部机 会》2026-02-04 3、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】军工陈鼎 如：Space X 再申请百万颗卫星，商 业航天关注度持续提升》2026-02-03 今日预览 今日重点>> 【固收】吕品：多空互加筹码，债市迎来"验牌时刻" 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 晨报内容回顾 1、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收林 莎：如何在定位和投资上做好一只"固 收+"——基金四季报详细拆解》 2026-02-06 【食品饮料】何长天：快餐市场重焕生机，产品创新增时运营 研究分享>> 【固收】吕品：信用债类 ETF 持续净流出 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 今日重点 【固收】吕品：多空互加筹码，债市迎来"验牌时刻" 近两周以来，债市的行情不断修复。尤其是以二永、10 年内期限为代表的配置型品种来说，债 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the ChinaBond New Composite Index rose 0.08% throughout the week; short - term and medium - long - term pure bond funds rose 0.01% respectively; the CSI AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index and the SSE Benchmark Market - making Corporate Bond Index rose 0.03% respectively [2]. - As of February 6, 2026, bond - type ETFs had a net outflow of 4.075 billion yuan in the past week, with interest - rate, credit, and convertible - bond ETFs having net inflows of 1.745 billion yuan, net outflows of 6.72 billion yuan, and net inflows of 0.9 billion yuan respectively [4]. - Overall, the net values of various types of bond ETF products generally rose last week. As of February 6, 2026, the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF Boshi performed well, rising 0.74% for the week [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds Flow - As of February 6, 2026, bond - type ETFs had a net outflow of 4.075 billion yuan in the past week. Interest - rate, credit, and convertible - bond ETFs had net inflows of 1.745 billion yuan, net outflows of 6.72 billion yuan, and net inflows of 0.9 billion yuan respectively. Among credit - type ETFs, short - term financing, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds had net inflows of 3.274 billion yuan, 0.016 billion yuan, and 0.283 billion yuan respectively, while market - making credit bonds had a net outflow of 2.384 billion yuan, and sci - tech innovation bonds had a net outflow of 7.908 billion yuan. Since 2025, interest - rate, credit, and convertible - bond ETFs have had cumulative net inflows of 53.805 billion yuan, 459.605 billion yuan, and 33.807 billion yuan respectively, totaling 547.217 billion yuan [4]. 3.2 Net Value Performance - Overall, the net values of various types of bond ETF products generally rose last week. As of February 6, 2026, the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF Boshi performed well, rising 0.74% for the week; the Treasury Bond ETF Huaxia rose 0.23%, and the Policy Financial Bond ETF rose 0.22%. The Convertible Bond ETF and the SSE Convertible Bond ETF fell 0.02% and 0.12% respectively last week [5]. 3.3 Performance of Credit Bond ETFs and Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETFs - As of February 6, 2026, the median unit net values of credit bond ETFs and sci - tech innovation bond ETFs were 1.0148 and 1.0026 respectively, rising 0.02% and 0.01% for the week. Among credit bond ETFs, the Credit Bond ETF Boshi performed relatively well, rising 0.03% for the week. Among sci - tech innovation bond ETFs, the Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETF Dacheng and the Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETF Yongying performed relatively well. As of February 6, 2026, the median discount rate of credit bond ETFs was 16BP, and that of sci - tech innovation bond ETFs was 17BP [6]. 3.4 Duration Tracking of Credit - type ETFs - As of February 6, 2026, the holding durations of short - term financing ETFs, corporate bond ETFs, and urban investment bond ETFs were 0.31 years, 1.90 years, and 2.08 years respectively. Among market - making credit bond ETFs, the median holding durations of products tracking the Shanghai Market - making Corporate Bond Index and the Shenzhen Market - making Corporate Bond Index were 3.57 years and 2.74 years respectively. Among sci - tech innovation bond ETFs, the median holding durations of products tracking the AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index, the Shanghai AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index, and the Shenzhen AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index were 3.28 years, 3.18 years, and 3.14 years respectively [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [1]. Core Insights - Ralph Lauren's Q3 2026 performance exceeded expectations with a 12% year-on-year revenue increase and a 21.6% rise in net profit, driven by strong growth in China and a robust direct-to-consumer channel [5]. - The Milan Winter Olympics is expected to enhance the visibility and demand for sports brands, particularly benefiting companies like Li Ning and Anta, which have established partnerships for the event [6]. - The report highlights the resilience of the Chinese market and the ongoing premiumization of brands, indicating a shift from mass luxury to top-tier luxury business models [5][6]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - Ralph Lauren's revenue growth was over 30% in China, with North America and Europe also showing positive trends [5]. - Tapestry reported a 14% increase in net sales, with significant growth in its Coach brand [5]. Market Trends - The light industry manufacturing index rose by 0.96%, ranking 8th among 28 industries, while the textile apparel index increased by 1.32%, ranking 6th [11]. - The report notes a positive outlook for sports and outdoor products sales due to major sporting events in 2026, including the Winter Olympics and World Cup [6]. Sector Analysis - The report suggests focusing on companies with clear Olympic rights and product strategies, such as Anta and Li Ning, as they prepare for significant events [6]. - In the textile manufacturing sector, Uniqlo's FY26Q1 performance was above expectations, with a 20.3% increase in overseas markets [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends monitoring companies like Bubble Mart for their ability to innovate and maintain market confidence through product launches and share buybacks [6]. - It also suggests looking into the AI eyewear market, highlighting the potential for growth as AI technology becomes more integrated into consumer products [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the building materials sector, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [6][110]. Core Insights - The building materials industry is at a turning point, with both demand and valuation expected to improve. The real estate sector is anticipated to stabilize, leading to a recovery in building materials demand. The report highlights that new construction starts in 2025 are projected to decline by 70% compared to 2021, with completions down by 40% and new home sales down by 50% [9][8]. - Rising prices of upstream raw materials such as asphalt, polypropylene, and polyethylene are expected to drive up building material prices, benefiting companies with pricing power [9][8]. - The report recommends several companies, including Beixin Building Materials, Oriental Yuhong, and Sanhe Tree, while suggesting to pay attention to companies like Rabbit Baby and China Liansu [9][8]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The building materials sector is currently underweighted, with a configuration ratio of 0.72% as of Q4 2025, which is significantly lower than the historical average since 2010 [8]. - The cement and glass sectors are noted to be at low valuation levels, with the cement manufacturing PB at the 16th percentile and glass manufacturing PB also at the 16th percentile since 2010 [8]. Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Beixin Building Materials: EPS forecasted to increase from 2.1 in 2024 to 3.5 in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 13.4 to 8.2 [6]. - Conch Cement: EPS forecasted to rise from 1.5 in 2024 to 2.2 in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 17.3 to 11.6 [6]. - China Jushi: EPS expected to grow from 0.6 in 2024 to 1.2 in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 36.1 to 18.6 [6]. - Other companies include Weixing New Materials, Sanhe Tree, and Huaxin Cement, all rated as "Buy" or "Increase" [6]. Industry Trends - The report notes a significant increase in market share for consumer building materials over the past few years, with profitability in segments like waterproofing and piping at a low point, suggesting potential for recovery [9][8]. - The cement sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability, with a current national cement market price decrease of 1% and a notable drop in average shipment rates [36][9]. - The float glass sector is experiencing a supply-side adjustment, with production capacity at a five-year low, indicating potential for price recovery [9][8]. Emerging Opportunities - The report highlights opportunities in overseas markets, particularly in Africa, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia, where rising populations and urbanization rates are creating demand for building materials [9][8]. - The electronic fabric market is also noted for its upward price trend due to supply constraints, with significant price increases observed in recent weeks [9][8]. Conclusion - The building materials industry is positioned for a recovery phase, driven by stabilization in the real estate market and rising raw material prices. The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong pricing power and market positioning to capitalize on these trends [9][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electric power equipment industry [6] Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the lithium battery sector, including Elon Musk's announcement of the large-scale production of dry electrodes and CATL securing a 10GWh energy storage project [8][14][15] - The energy storage market shows strong demand, with January's procurement reaching 36.3GWh and a 42% increase in the average price of 4-hour storage systems over the past six months [25][26] - The report emphasizes the potential for performance and valuation improvements in the lithium battery and energy storage sectors, suggesting a favorable medium-term investment outlook [8] Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Sector - The battery industry index rose by 3.24%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 4.57 percentage points, with key stocks like Enjie and Wanrun New Energy showing significant gains [12] - Major events include the announcement of dry electrode mass production by Tesla and strategic partnerships in solid-state battery technology [14][16][18] Energy Storage Sector - January saw a procurement of 36.3GWh in energy storage, with a notable 42% increase in the average price of 4-hour systems [25][26] - The report notes strong demand in regions like Ningxia, which completed a procurement scale of 7.76GWh, the highest in the country [25] - The report identifies key companies in the energy storage sector, including Haibo Sichuang and Sungrow Power [8] Electric Power Equipment Sector - The report discusses the approval of significant high-voltage projects, including the "Mont Electricity into Shanghai" project, marking the start of substantial construction [29][30] - It highlights the ambitious "six AC and six DC" plan in Inner Mongolia, which aims to add 48 million kilowatts of high-voltage transmission capacity [30] Photovoltaic Sector - The report tracks the stability in silicon material prices and the decline in silicon wafer prices, indicating a cautious market outlook [33][36] - It notes the recent interest from Musk's team in Chinese photovoltaic companies, focusing on potential collaborations in solar technology [39] Wind Power Sector - The report outlines progress in offshore wind projects across various regions, with significant approvals and tenders being announced [42][44] - It emphasizes the expected growth in offshore wind capacity and the importance of supply chain developments in the sector [51][52]

多空互加筹码，债市迎来"验牌时刻" 证券研究报告/固收专题报告 2026 年 02 月 08 日 分析师：吕品 执业证书编号：S0740525060003 Email：lvpin@zts.com.cn 报告摘要 近两周以来，债市的行情不断修复。尤其是以二永、10 年内期限为代表的配置型品种 来说，债市短期已经走出了非熊的局面。随着 T、TL、30 年现券的不断修复，但 30 年国债活跃券借贷量仍然在大幅度提高，空头和多头都在互扔筹码，多空决战临近"验 牌时刻"： 分析师：严伶怡 执业证书编号：S0740525070001 Email：yanly@zts.com.cn Email：suht@zts.com.cn 铜价仍有支撑》2026-02-05 2、《如何在定位和投资上做好一只 "固收+"》2026-02-05 执业证书编号：S0740524070004 Email：youyong@zts.com.cn 好？》2026-02-04 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 债券市场多空都有自信，正在互加筹码 分析师：游勇 空方：在中期与短期的逻辑可能都具有较强的完备性。比如，科技行业带动各类资产 的涨价逻辑与债市自身 ...

中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 两融资金继续退潮，宽基ETF流出放缓——负债行为跟踪 2 0 2 6 . 2 . 8 林莎 执业证书编号：S0740525060004 邮 箱：linsha@zts.com.cn 张可迎 执业证书编号： S0740525080001 邮 箱：zhangky04@zts.com.cn 摘要 本周，A股市场缩量下跌，有色、TMT板块领跌。 周一以来有色板块的暴跌是前期预期高度一致、杠杆资金过于集中后必然会发生的"挤水分"的结果。TMT板块的下跌则一方面是受有色板块下跌的恐慌外溢影响， 另一方面，海外科技业绩不及预期，对前期高增预期进行修正。 大幅下跌是极端市场情绪压力的反映。开年以来的增量资金抢跑，大多数资金已积累了大量浮盈，金银暴跌以及海外事件给了这些资金顺势止盈降仓的理由。但即 便如此，周二多数板块也出现超跌反弹，虽未收复所有跌幅，但反映抄底资金已经开始入场。 本周负债行为特点： 1、两融资金继续退潮。 1）两融交易额比重回落，从上周9.71%回落至9.32%，回落至接近均值水平，与去年6-7月水平基本相当 ...

A H 股市场周度观察（2 月第 1 周） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 02 月 08 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 1、《当前市场调整是大周期见顶还 是结构性切换？》2025-08-10 报告摘要 一、A 股： 二、港股： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 周）》2025-08-04 何？》2025-08-03 分析师：张文宇 【市场走势】本周 A 股延续调整，宽基指数普遍收跌：上证指数周跌约 1.27%，深证 成指周跌约 2.11%，创业板指周跌约 3.28%。风格层面，大盘价值相对抗跌，而成长 与中小盘回撤更明显；行业层面，食品饮料、银行等偏防御方向领涨，而有色金属、 通信、电子等高β板块领跌。成交额方面，本周沪深两市日均成交额明显缩量。 相关报告 【深度剖析】本周 A 股市场整体呈现震荡回调走势，主要受海外与大类资产风险扰动。 一方面，黄金，白银等贵金属本周持续大幅震荡，对 A 股风险偏好造成持续扰动。另 一方面， ...

Core Insights - The report highlights three investment strategies: Davis Double Hit Strategy, Net Profit Gap Strategy, and Enhanced CSI 300 Strategy, each demonstrating distinct performance metrics and methodologies [5][11][14]. Davis Double Hit Strategy - The Davis Double Hit Strategy involves buying stocks with low price-to-earnings (PE) ratios that have strong growth potential, aiming to sell them once growth is realized and PE increases, thus achieving a multiplier effect on returns [5][8]. - Historical backtesting from 2010 to 2017 shows an annualized return of 26.45%, exceeding the benchmark by 21.08%, with consistent excess returns over 11% in each of the seven complete years [10]. - As of February 6, 2026, the strategy has achieved a cumulative absolute return of 4.47%, with an excess return of -4.65% compared to the CSI 500 Index [10]. Net Profit Gap Strategy - The Net Profit Gap Strategy combines fundamental and technical analysis, focusing on stocks that exceed earnings expectations, indicated by a significant upward price gap on the first trading day post-earnings announcement [11]. - Since 2010, this strategy has yielded an annualized return of 29.66%, with an annualized excess return of 25.92% [12]. - The strategy's performance for the current year shows a cumulative absolute return of 5.28%, with an excess return of -3.84% against the benchmark [12]. Enhanced CSI 300 Strategy - The Enhanced CSI 300 Strategy is constructed based on investor preference factors, including GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), growth, and value investing styles, aiming to identify undervalued stocks with strong profitability [14][18]. - Historical backtesting indicates stable excess returns, with the current year's strategy showing an excess return of 6.28% relative to the CSI 300 Index [18]. - As of February 6, 2026, the strategy has achieved a return of 6.58%, outperforming the benchmark [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the fast food industry, expecting a growth of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [5][28]. Core Insights - The fast food market in China is experiencing a revival, driven by product innovation and extended operational hours, with a notable shift towards healthier and more diverse offerings [6][8]. - The market is characterized by a significant presence of Chinese fast food, which accounts for over 47% of the market, while Western fast food holds a smaller share of 2.1% [7][10]. - The report highlights three key trends: 1. Store distribution is increasingly penetrating lower-tier cities, with expectations that by 2025, these cities will account for 65% of the market [16]. 2. Accelerated product innovation is evident, with a focus on fusion and health-oriented products, exemplified by KFC's introduction of new items at an average rate of 7.5 per month [22]. 3. A shift towards all-day operations is being adopted to maximize store utilization, with brands like KFC and McDonald's introducing time-limited products to attract diverse consumer segments [25]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The fast food sector is witnessing a recovery with a stable growth trajectory after fluctuations in store numbers and average spending per customer [7][10]. - The market size for Western fast food is projected to reach 297.5 billion yuan in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 11% [12]. Consumer Trends - The average spending for Chinese fast food is predominantly below 30 yuan, with a K-shaped distribution emerging in 2024, while Western fast food also shows a similar trend [14]. Store Distribution - The number of Chinese fast food outlets is expected to grow from 3.24 million in 2023 to 3.49 million by 2025, while Western fast food outlets are anticipated to rise from 292,000 to 325,000 in the same period [10]. Product Innovation - There is a notable trend towards product innovation, with over 1,000 new items launched by 45 Western fast food brands from January 2024 to February 2025 [22]. Operational Strategies - Fast food brands are extending their operational hours and diversifying their product offerings to cater to various consumer needs throughout the day [25].