Space X 再申请百万颗卫星，商业航天关注度持续提升 国防军工 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 02 日 Email：mamz@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 143 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 35,234.26 | 2026-01-25 2、《国产大飞机航司交付及国产化 率双提升，C919 产业链景气上行》 2026-01-18 3、《商业航天高景气上行，国产大 飞机迎双提升机遇》2026-01-11 分析师：陈鼎如 执业证书编号：S0740521080001 Email：chendr01@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740523060003 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | | 分析师： ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the giant tire industry, with a strong focus on overseas expansion and a robust order book, indicating potential for revenue growth [9]. - The global giant tire market is expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 8.4% from 2023 to 2027, with significant demand driven by the mining sector [7]. - The company plans to establish a joint venture in Russia for tire production, with an estimated investment of 43.19 billion RMB and an annual production capacity of 10,500 tires [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2,251 million RMB in 2023, 2,300 million RMB in 2024, 2,200 million RMB in 2025, 2,468 million RMB in 2026, and 3,404 million RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 49%, 2%, -4%, 12%, and 38% respectively [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 654 million RMB in 2023, 679 million RMB in 2024, 660 million RMB in 2025, 740 million RMB in 2026, and 1,021 million RMB in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 85%, 4%, -3%, 12%, and 38% [5]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to remain high at around 55%, with net profit margins stabilizing at approximately 30% from 2025 to 2027 [12]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The giant tire market is characterized by high barriers to entry, with a few foreign companies historically dominating the sector. However, domestic companies are beginning to capture market share due to improved product quality and competitive pricing [8]. - The company has established strong customer relationships with major mining enterprises, which enhances its market position and customer retention [9]. - The company’s planned production capacity expansion includes 24,400 tires domestically and 10,500 tires in Russia, which is expected to significantly increase its output and market presence [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [4][7] Core Insights - The report highlights the establishment of an independent capacity pricing mechanism for energy storage and a reliable capacity compensation mechanism, which further improves the market-oriented pricing system [6] - The notification from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration clarifies the capacity pricing mechanism for independent energy storage, providing clearer operational income guarantees and revenue expectations for independent storage [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of the reliable capacity concept and its corresponding compensation mechanism, which compensates units that can provide stable power during peak demand periods, marking a significant improvement in the capacity pricing system [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry comprises 358 listed companies with a total market value of 51,526.63 billion and a circulating market value of 45,711.37 billion [2] Key Company Status - The report recommends specific companies such as Guoneng Rixin and suggests continuous attention to companies like Langxin Technology and Dongfang Electronics [6] Financial Projections - Guoneng Rixin is projected to have an EPS of 0.85 in 2023, increasing to 1.38 by 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 77.38 in 2023 to 36.49 in 2027 [4] - Dongfang Electronics is expected to have an EPS of 0.40 in 2023, rising to 0.76 by 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 32.60 in 2023 to 15.02 in 2027 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [9] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 130.5 billion, 132.3 billion, and 137.1 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of -6%, 1%, and 4% respectively [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 10.1 billion, 10.4 billion, and 11.3 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of -30%, 3%, and 9% respectively [7] - The company plans to release the value of marginal assets and enhance operational stability through the transfer of its wholly-owned subsidiary, Xintai Coal, which has a significant increase in assessed net asset value [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total share capital of 10,037.48 million shares and a market price of 14.64 yuan, leading to a market capitalization of approximately 146.95 billion yuan [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.44, 1.01, 1.04, and 1.13 yuan for the years 2024 to 2027 [7] Asset Management - The company is in the process of transferring the 100% equity of its subsidiary, Xintai Coal, with a base price of 670 million yuan, and the highest bid reaching 3.05 billion yuan [7] - The transaction is expected to release hidden asset value and positively contribute to the company's net profit in 2026 [6][7] Market Position - The company is focusing on optimizing its asset structure by concentrating on core mining areas, which is anticipated to improve overall asset quality and capital allocation efficiency [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electric equipment industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the introduction of a national capacity pricing policy for energy storage, which recognizes the capacity value of new energy storage systems [7][21] - It forecasts a significant increase in new energy storage installations, with an expected addition of 62.24 GW/183 GWh by 2025, marking an 84% growth compared to the end of 2024 [24] - The report emphasizes the ongoing high demand for energy storage both domestically and internationally, with leading companies expected to accelerate their performance [7][21] Summary by Sections Energy Storage - The national capacity pricing mechanism for energy storage has been established, allowing independent energy storage systems to receive compensation based on their peak capacity contributions [21][22] - The average storage duration is projected to increase to 2.58 hours, with an expected utilization of 1195 hours in 2025, reflecting a significant improvement in efficiency [25] - Key companies in the energy storage sector include Haibo Shichuang, Sunshine Power, and others, which are expected to benefit from the new policies and market conditions [7] Lithium Battery Sector - Xianhui Technology anticipates a net profit of 350 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 56.93%, driven by improved operational efficiency and overseas project contributions [13] - Jiayuan Technology expects revenues between 9.5 billion and 9.75 billion yuan for 2025, with a return to profitability, highlighting a recovery in market demand [14] - The report recommends companies such as Ningde Times and Yiwei Lithium Energy for investment, indicating a positive outlook for the lithium battery sector [7] Electric Equipment - The report notes that Hunan Province plans to invest 45.2 billion yuan in 2026 to promote 24 major energy projects, indicating strong regional support for electric infrastructure [26] - The report also highlights the surge in electricity prices in the U.S., which reached unprecedented levels, suggesting potential volatility in energy markets [29] - Companies like Xujie Electric and Pinggao Electric are recommended for their roles in high-voltage projects and equipment exports [7][26] Photovoltaic Sector - The report indicates that new photovoltaic installations in China are expected to reach 315 GW in 2025, with a focus on companies like Longi Green Energy and Trina Solar [7] - The prices of photovoltaic components are experiencing fluctuations, with recent increases in battery and module prices due to market dynamics [31][33] - The report suggests that the photovoltaic sector remains a key area for investment, particularly in light of upcoming policy changes affecting export taxes [7][33]

2025 年 A 股业绩前瞻：结构分化加剧，资源与制造板块领跑 证券研究报告/策略专题报告 2026 年 02 月 01 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 一、业绩预告全景：整体偏弱，分化显著 截至 2026 年 1 月 31 日共有 2963 家上市公司披露业绩预警，整体喜忧参半，但以"报 忧"为主基调。"报喜"类（预增、续盈、略增、扭亏）公司共 1095 家，占比约 37%； "报忧"类（预减、略减、续亏、首亏）公司则有 1867 家，占比约 63%。整体来看， 2025 年上市公司盈利整体呈现企稳回升趋势，但整体仍处于弱通道。另外，不少企业 盈利同比有所改善，但分化明显，仍有大批公司未能实现盈利增长。 相关报告 行业方面，2025 年出现集中"报喜"的行业有非银金融，有色金属，美容护理，汽车 与公用事业。集中"报忧"的行业有煤炭，房地产，轻工制造，食品饮料和建筑装饰。 非银金融板块集体预增，业绩预警表现远好于其他行业， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, Shaanxi Coal, and others, while some companies like Huayang Co. and Shanmei International are rated as "Overweight" [4]. Core Insights - The coal consumption scale has reached a peak plateau, with the demand for electricity generated from coal expected to stabilize in the coming years. The report suggests that the traditional growth model of coal-fired power generation may face a turning point due to the increasing share of clean energy [6][7]. - The transition of coal-fired power from a primary energy source to a supporting role in the new energy system is emphasized, with a significant expansion in installed capacity expected in the next few years [6][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Coal-fired Power: Transitioning to Peak Regulation and Support - The role of coal-fired power is shifting towards providing peak regulation and support, with its share in the energy mix declining but still remaining a core component of energy security [6][11]. - Installed capacity of coal-fired power is expected to continue expanding, with projections of new installations reaching 87 GW, 86 GW, and 43 GW from 2026 to 2028, respectively [6][29]. 2. Clean Energy: Becoming the Main Source of New Installations - Hydropower is expected to play a dual role in stable supply and peak regulation, with new installations projected to reach 17 GW, 18 GW, and 33 GW from 2026 to 2028 [7][39]. - Wind power is anticipated to see significant growth, with new installations expected to reach 109 GW, 161 GW, and 193 GW during the same period, reflecting its transition to a primary energy source [7][52]. - Solar energy is entering a stable development phase, with new installations projected at 192 GW, 139 GW, and 153 GW from 2026 to 2028, despite recent challenges in energy consumption and bidding processes [7][59]. 3. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Dividend and Flexibility - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong cash flow stability and dividend potential, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, while also highlighting companies like Yanzhou Coal and Huayang Co. as having potential benefits from high coal demand [6][7][8].

广东提出稳市场，新房销售数据上升 ——20260130 房地产行业周报 房地产 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 01 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：由子沛 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 | | 保利发展 | 6.81 | 1.01 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.51 | 0.54 | 6.7 | 16.2 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 12.6 | 买入 | | Email：youzp@zts.com.cn | | ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [16]. Core Insights - The market is currently in an upward trend, with the core observation being whether the profit-making effect is positive. The market trend line is near 6800 points, and the profit-making effect is at the zero value edge, suggesting the potential for a halt in the upward trend [5][8]. - The short-term outlook indicates continued outflows from broad-based ETFs, particularly the CSI 300 ETF, which is exerting pressure on the index. A significant drop in non-ferrous metals has also dampened short-term risk appetite [7][8]. - The industry trend configuration model suggests waiting for reversal signals in the liquor and real estate sectors, while the TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on rebound opportunities in commercial aerospace [6][8]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The WIND All A index is in an upward trend, with a significant distance of 6.77% between the short-term (20-day) and long-term (120-day) moving averages, indicating a continued upward trend [5][9]. - The market experienced a decline of 1.59% last week, with small-cap stocks (CSI 1000) down 2.55% and mid-cap stocks (CSI 500) down 2.56%. The CSI 300 saw a slight increase of 0.08%, while the SSE 50 rose by 1.13% [2][7]. Valuation Metrics - The PE ratio of the WIND All A index is at the 90th percentile, indicating a high valuation level, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, suggesting a moderate valuation level [9][11]. Positioning Recommendations - The report recommends a 70% allocation to absolute return products based on the WIND All A index, reflecting a cautious but optimistic stance on market conditions [9][10]. - The performance trend model highlights the importance of focusing on the computing power-related industry chain and suggests waiting for significant volume reductions in high-performing cyclical sectors such as industrial non-ferrous metals and chemicals [6][14].

戴维斯双击策略本周超额收益 2.39% Email：wuxx02@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740525060001 Email：wangpf@zts.com.cn 1、《量化择时周报：牛市格局仍在 延 续 ， 主 题 投 资 重 回 主 线 》 2026-01-25 2、《沪深 300 增强策略本周超额收 益 3.90%》2026-01-25 3、《净利润断层策略本周绝对收益 1.99%》2026-01-18 证券研究报告/金融工程定期报告 2026 年 02 月 01 日 执业证书编号：S0740525110003 分析师：吴先兴 报告摘要 相关报告 净利润断层策略 沪深 300 增强组合 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 戴维斯双击策略 分析师：王鹏飞 戴维斯双击即指以较低的市盈率买入具有成长潜力的股票，待成长性显现、市盈率相 应提高后卖出，获得乘数效应的收益，即 EPS 和 PE 的"双击"。策略在 2010-2017 年回测期内实现了 26.45%的年化收益，超额基准 21.08%。 策略在 2010-2017 回测期内实现了 26.45%的年化收益，超额基准 21.08%，且在回 测 ...