Group 1: Financial Policy Analysis - The financial policy discussions in the 20th Central Committee's Third Plenary Session align with expectations, continuing previous policies and maintaining consistency with the "National Nine Articles" [14] - The overall aim is to deepen reforms to better serve the real economy while continuing to emphasize risk prevention and strong regulation to promote stability and healthy development in the financial market [14] - A new financial law is being formulated to strengthen regulatory responsibilities and accountability, enhancing coordination between central and local authorities to solidify the financial stability framework against systemic risks [14] Group 2: Capital Market Insights - The capital market statements are largely consistent with the "National Nine Articles," indicating a commitment to effective governance in the capital market [14] - The analysis of the series of policies following the "National Nine Articles" highlights a focus on implementing measures that encourage early investment in hard technology and enhance investor protection [14] - The report suggests that the brokerage sector's profits are declining, but there are opportunities for performance recovery as the market stabilizes and through industry mergers and acquisitions [14] Group 3: ABS Market Overview - In the context of narrowing market spreads, ABS (Asset-Backed Securities) still presents investment opportunities, with current spreads remaining relatively high compared to other securities [15] - The issuance of ABS has been declining since 2021, with a notable concentration of issuance at the end of each quarter, particularly in the third and fourth quarters [15] - The report indicates that the majority of ABS issuers are financial entities, with a complex structure for enterprise ABS issuers, and highlights the importance of understanding the repayment methods and issuance characteristics of ABS [15] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The ABS market is deemed to have investment value due to its variety and relative resilience compared to higher-yielding non-public municipal and industrial bonds [15] - Strategies for investment include focusing on underlying assets, considering the differences between senior and subordinated tranches, and ensuring liquidity while pursuing yield [15] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring default rates, recovery rates, and early repayment rates in the ABS market to assess potential risks [15]

Sales and Production Trends - Passenger car wholesale average daily sales reached 36,300 units, a week-on-week increase of 30.13%, but a year-on-year decrease of 19.20%[2] - Retail average daily sales of passenger cars were 43,300 units, with a week-on-week increase of 10.57% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.47%[11] - National blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.17 percentage points week-on-week and 7.28 percentage points year-on-year[3] Real Estate Market Insights - Commodity housing sales area in 30 major cities decreased by 9.76% week-on-week, with first, second, and third-tier cities down by 6.85%, 14.01%, and 3.93% respectively[4] - Land transaction area in 100 major cities was 9.1765 million square meters, down 19.88% week-on-week, with first, second, and third-tier cities down by 95.97%, 10.50%, and 20.31% respectively[10] - Land premium rate across 100 major cities was approximately 9.89%, up 4.94 percentage points from the previous week[4] Inventory and Price Movements - Steel inventories for rebar, wire rod, and hot-rolled sheets decreased by 1.76%, 3.39%, and 0.22% week-on-week respectively[5] - Food prices increased, with average wholesale prices for pork, beef, lamb, eggs, and key vegetables rising by 1.70%, 1.27%, 0.37%, 1.32%, and 1.67% respectively[6] - Crude oil futures prices fell, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreasing by 2.89% and 4.29% week-on-week respectively[6] Import and Export Performance - The export container freight index increased by 3.29% week-on-week, while the Shanghai export container freight index decreased by 3.60%[5] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 4.76% week-on-week, while the China Import Dry Bulk Freight Index (CDFI) fell by 1.37%[5] Risk Factors - Overall decline in real estate sales and rising food prices pose risks to the market[7]

、 政策专题│二十届三中全会金融政策分析与展望：政策基调延续 非银金融 证券研究报告/专题研究报告 2024 年 7 月 23 日 [Table_Main] 评级：增持（ 维持 ） 分析师：蒋峤 执业证书编号：S0740517090005 Email：jiangqiao@zts.com.cn 分析师：戴志锋 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 | --- | |----------------------------------------------------| | 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 | | Email：daizf@r.qlzq.com.cnEEmail：daizf@zts.com.cn | [Table_Profit] 基本状况 | --- | --- | |----------------------|---------| | 上市公司数 | 85 | | 行业总市值(百万元) | 4337812 | | 行业流通市值(百万元) | 1926014 | [Table_QuotePic] 行业-市场走势对比 非银金融 沪深300 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 ...

证券研究报告 2024 年 7 月 23 日 [b_Suy 今日预览 【银行】戴志锋：测算与展望│降息符合预期，新一轮存款利率调降可期 总结 晨报内容回顾： 今日重点 2024Q2 全国土地供应及成交情况 土地推出建面方面，2024 年 Q2 全国供给土地规划建面 7.00 亿方，同比增速为-28.25%。土地出让 金方面，2024 年 Q2 全国实现土地出让金 0.56 万亿，同比增速为-46.39%。 从溢价率数据来看，2024 年 Q2 土地出让平均溢价率 2.82%，相比 2023 年 Q2 下降 2.81 个百分点。 从城市能级来看，2024 年 Q2 一线、二线、三四线城市土地出让溢价率平均值分别为 2.33%、2.50%、 3.19%。从单月数据来看，2024 年 6 月全国、一线、二线、三四线溢价率分别为 2.83%、0.57%、 3.62%、2.84%。 流拍率方面，2024 年 Q2 平均流拍率为 8.60%，2023 年 Q2 流拍率为 8.96%，相比下降 0.36 个百分 点。2024 年 Q2，4-6 月流拍率分别为 7.87%、9.91%、10.29%。 高总价及高溢价率地块的城 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as the first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company, Dameng Data, is a leader in the domestic database industry, leveraging its fully self-developed database technology and a comprehensive product suite to capitalize on the growing demand in the government and financial sectors [3][28]. - The company has shown significant revenue and net profit growth, with a projected increase in net profit from 350 million yuan in 2024 to 510 million yuan in 2026 [3][40]. - The report highlights the company's strong market position, with a stable shareholding structure and a founder with a deep technical background, enhancing its competitive edge in the industry [3][21]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 794 million yuan in 2023, 926 million yuan in 2024, and 1,314 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.39% from 2019 to 2023 [1][40]. - Net profit is expected to grow from 296 million yuan in 2023 to 510 million yuan in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 66.1x in 2023 to 34.8x in 2026 [1][3]. - The company's gross margin has improved significantly, rising from 80.30% in 2019 to 95.81% in 2023, indicating enhanced profitability [40]. Company Overview - Dameng Data was established in 2000 and has developed a comprehensive suite of database products, including the DM8 database, which is fully self-developed and meets high security standards [3][28]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with China Electronics as the actual controller, which strengthens its market position [21][65]. - The company's business model includes software product licensing, solutions, and operational services, with software licensing accounting for over 91% of revenue in 2023 [3][17]. Industry Context - The domestic database market is expanding, with a notable shift towards domestic products as international market share declines [3][49]. - The report emphasizes the high barriers to entry in the government and financial sectors, where database selection is heavily influenced by technology and compliance requirements [3][46]. - The trend towards domestic database solutions is accelerating, driven by policy support and the need for secure and reliable data management systems [3][49].

行业名称 银行 测算与展望 | 降息符合预期,新一轮存款利率调降可期 证券研究报告/专题研究报告 2024 年 7 月 23 日 评级:增持( 维持重点公司未未状况 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|-------|----------|-------|----------|-------|-------| | 分析片 真心单执业迁半篇予: S0740517030004 | 简称 | 股价(无) | 2023 | EPS2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | | | 7.77 | 1.57 | | 1.87 | 2.00 | 分析片 环美君沪农有什6.611.261.321.381.445.285.044.824.62 34.25格斯林什5.755.755.815.875.805.80执业迁半篇导: S07405190500025.745.68 点上从付4.640.760.750.740.756.116.196.276.19 Email: dengmj@ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Qilu Bank with a market price of 4.48 CNY [2][9]. Core Insights - Qilu Bank's revenue and profit growth remain robust, with a 5.5% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2024 and a 17.0% increase in net profit [3][4]. - The bank's asset quality is improving, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.24% and a provision coverage ratio of 309.25% as of mid-2024 [6][7]. - The bank is effectively leveraging local economic policies to enhance its competitive position in the market [8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Revenue (in million CNY) is projected to grow from 11,940 in 2023 to 12,575 in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.31% [2]. - Net profit (in million CNY) is expected to increase from 4,234 in 2023 to 4,886 in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 15.40% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.90 in 2023 to 1.04 in 2024 [2]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio has improved to 1.24%, with a provision coverage ratio of 309.25% [6][7]. - The bank's provision for loan losses is at 3.83%, indicating a strong buffer against potential loan defaults [6][7]. Loan and Deposit Growth - Qilu Bank's new loans for the first half of 2024 totaled 26.4 billion CNY, which is 4.49 billion CNY more than the same period in 2023 [3][5]. - Total deposits increased by 20.5 billion CNY in the second quarter of 2024, a rise of 9.1% year-on-year [5][6]. Valuation Metrics - Projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 4.32, 3.82, and 3.39, respectively [8]. - Projected price-to-book (P/B) ratios for the same years are 0.57, 0.51, and 0.46 [8].

、 测算与展望│降息符合预期,新一轮存款利率调降可期 行业名称 银行 证券研究报告/专题研究报告 2024 年 7 月 23 日 | --- | |-----------------------------| | 分析师 戴志锋 | | 执业证书编号:S0740517030004 | | Email:daizf@zts.com.cn | | 分析师 邓美君 | | 执业证书编号:S0740519050002 | Email:dengmj@zts.com.cn 投资要点 ◼ 核心观点:1、降息符合预期,LPR 挂钩 7 天 OMO,利率市场化进一步深化。2、本次 LPR 调降 10bp 对银行 2024 年息差影响 1bp 左右,对营收和税前利润分别影响 0.5pcts/1.1pcts。3、从近期 LPR 以及存款利率的调整来看:央行每下调 LPR 两次, 接着大行就会下调挂牌存款利率两次,而今年初以来已降息两轮,新一轮存款利率 调降可期。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------| ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for Qilu Bank [3][4][10] Core Insights - Qilu Bank's revenue and profit growth remain high, with a cumulative revenue increase of 5.5% year-on-year in 1H24 and a net profit increase of 17.0% [4][6] - The bank's credit growth outperformed the industry average, with new loans of 26.4 billion yuan in the first half of the year, representing a 62% increase compared to the previous year [4][6] - Asset quality continues to improve, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.24% and a provision coverage ratio of 309.25% [6][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2022: 11,052 - 2023: 11,940 - 2024E: 12,575 - 2025E: 13,254 - 2026E: 13,915 - Net Profit (in million yuan): - 2022: 3,587 - 2023: 4,234 - 2024E: 4,886 - 2025E: 5,516 - 2026E: 6,229 - Earnings per Share (in yuan): - 2022: 0.78 - 2023: 0.90 - 2024E: 1.04 - 2025E: 1.17 - 2026E: 1.32 [3][4][9] Credit and Deposit Growth - New loans in 1H24 totaled 26.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.49 billion yuan, with a quarterly increase of 21% in Q2 compared to the previous year [4][6] - Total deposits increased by 9.1% year-on-year, with a quarterly increase of 20.5 billion yuan in Q2, which is 9.6 billion yuan more than the same period last year [6][7] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio improved to 1.24%, with a provision coverage ratio of 309.25% and a loan-to-provision ratio of 3.83% [6][8] - The bank's asset quality has been supported by significant provisions in the past, ensuring ample profit release space [8][9] Valuation Metrics - Projected Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios: - 2024E: 4.32 - 2025E: 3.82 - 2026E: 3.39 - Projected Price-to-Book (P/B) ratios: - 2024E: 0.57 - 2025E: 0.51 - 2026E: 0.46 [3][9]

| --- | |------------| | | | 一、 事件… | | 二、 点评… | | 风险提示 | - 5 - [投资要点 Table_Summary ] [Table_ 分析师：徐驰 Authors] 分析师：张文宇 总量政策定力保持，重视科技创新——二十届三中全会快评 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 图表 1： 关于深化科创板改革服务科技创新和新质生产力发展的八条措施……-4- [Table_Industry] ◼ 新华社北京 7 月 18 日电，中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第三次全体会议，于 2024 年 7 月 15 日至 18 日在北京举行。出席这次全会的有，中央委员 199 人，候补中央委 员 165 人。全会听取和讨论了总书记受中央政治局委托所作的工作报告，审议通过了《中 共中央关于进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化的决定》。 ◼ 全会指出，进一步全面深化改革的总目标是继续完善和发展中国特色社会主义制度，推 进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化。到二〇二九年中华人民共和国成立八十周年时，完 成本决定提出的改革任务。 ◼ 二、点评： ◼ 1、总量政策或持续保持定力。就经济政策而言，会 ...