2024 年 10 月 20 日 公司点评 超微半导体(AMD) 超微半导体（AMD）大会简评：AI 新品 MI325X 发布，瞄准 H200 证券分析师：李珏晗 E-MAIL：lijuehan@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523080001 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 事件：美东时间 10 月 10 日，公司在旧金山举办 Advancing AI 2024 大会，会议期间发布多款针对企业级应用的 AI 产品，其中包括 Instinct MI325X、第五代 EPYC 处理器。 MI325X 预期与 24Q4 量产，对标英伟达 H200。MI325X 为 23 年发布的 MI300X 的升级版，MI325X 架构与 MI300X 相同，即 CDNA3。从产品性能来 看：1）MI325X 在 FP8、FP16 分别为 2.6PF、1.3PF，2）MI325X 内存升级 为 HBM3e，MI300X 为 HBM3；内存容量为 256GB，MI300X 为 192GB；带宽为 6TB/s，MI300X 为 5.3TB/s。3）在处理大型语言模型如 Mixtr ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ASML is "Buy," indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [4]. Core Insights - ASML's Q3 2024 revenue reached €7.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%, exceeding the previous guidance of €6.7-7.3 billion [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 50.8%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, aligning with the guidance of 50%-51% [1]. - The company has revised its revenue guidance for 2025 downwards due to export control factors, now expecting €30-35 billion instead of the previous €30-40 billion [1]. Summary by Sections Q3 Financial Performance - Q3 revenue was €7.5 billion, up 12% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter, with EUV machines contributing €2.1 billion and non-EUV machines €3.8 billion [1]. - Revenue breakdown by region: Mainland China €2.8 billion (47% of total, +14% YoY, +19% QoQ), Taiwan €0.9 billion (15%, -30% YoY, +70% QoQ), USA €1.2 billion (21%, +369% YoY, +771% QoQ), South Korea €0.9 billion (15%, -16% YoY, -33% QoQ) [1]. - Revenue by application: Logic revenue €3.8 billion (64%, -6% YoY, +48% QoQ), Storage revenue €2.1 billion (36%, +67% YoY, -3% QoQ) [1]. Equipment Orders - Q3 equipment orders totaled €2.6 billion, flat year-on-year but down 54% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - EUV equipment orders were €1.4 billion (up 180% YoY, down 44% QoQ), while non-EUV equipment orders were €1.2 billion (down 43% YoY, down 61% QoQ) [1]. - The backlog of orders stands at €36 billion [1]. Future Guidance - For Q4, ASML expects revenue between €8.8-9.2 billion, with a midpoint indicating a 24% year-on-year increase and a 20% quarter-on-quarter increase [1]. - The full-year revenue forecast for 2024 is €28 billion, with a gross margin of 50.6% [1].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide specific ratings for the chemical pharmaceuticals and traditional Chinese medicine sectors, while the biopharmaceutical sector is rated as Neutral [1][6]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector is viewed positively, with expectations of returns exceeding the CSI 300 index by more than 5% over the next six months [6]. - The report highlights the positive mid-term results of Otsuka Pharmaceutical's Sibeprenlimab in Phase III clinical trials for treating IgA nephropathy [4]. - The pharmaceutical sector's performance on October 23, 2024, showed a slight decline of -0.14%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.53 percentage points, ranking 24th among 31 sub-industries [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - On October 23, 2024, the pharmaceutical sector's performance was -0.14%, with blood products (+1.01%) and medical R&D outsourcing (+0.74%) leading, while offline pharmacies (-1.11%) and hospitals (-0.62%) lagged [3]. Company Announcements - Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical reported a revenue of 570 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.84%, with a net profit of 96 million yuan, up 21.72% [4]. - Lijun Group reported a revenue of 9.082 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.94%, but a net profit of 1.673 billion yuan, an increase of 4.44% [4]. - Iwubio reported a revenue of 730 million yuan, an increase of 8.38%, with a net profit of 272 million yuan, up 0.78% [4]. - Jinkai Biotechnology reported a revenue of 387 million yuan, a decrease of 33.93%, with a net profit of 39 million yuan, down 73.13% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ganyuan Food with a target price of 87.80, compared to the last closing price of 70.40 [1][2]. Core Insights - Ganyuan Food's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 5.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.58%, and a net profit of 1.11 billion yuan, up 17.10% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company has shown strong growth in offline channels, particularly in snack wholesale and overseas markets, with significant progress in transitioning from distribution to direct sales in supermarkets [2][3]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 36.8%, a slight decrease of 0.75 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to changes in channel structure, while the net profit margin improved significantly [2][3]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Ganyuan Food are estimated to grow at rates of 23%, 19%, and 15% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 24%, 20%, and 14% for the same years [3][2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 4.39 yuan, 5.25 yuan, and 6.00 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16x, 13x, and 12x [3][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price based on the last closing price of 250.55 [1][8]. Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance shows a significant increase in gross margin, with a quarter-on-quarter rise of 4.5 percentage points to 31.2%. This improvement is attributed to a larger decrease in raw material prices compared to product prices and the premium from new technology products [3][4]. - The company reported a Q3 revenue of 92.278 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.48% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.07%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.136 billion yuan, up 25.97% year-on-year and 6.32% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The report highlights that the company has made a significant asset impairment provision of 4.74 billion yuan, primarily related to lithium carbonate, which is expected to enhance future earnings elasticity [3][4]. - The company’s energy storage battery shipments are estimated to have increased by approximately 15% quarter-on-quarter, with new products expected to continue gaining market share, thereby maintaining strong profitability [3][4]. - The company is advancing its overseas factory projects, with expectations of improved global competitiveness. The German factory is projected to break even in 2024, and the Hungarian factory is expected to commence production in 2025, benefiting from the anticipated growth in the European market for power batteries [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue: 92.278 billion yuan, YoY -12.48%, QoQ +6.07% - Q3 2024 net profit: 13.136 billion yuan, YoY +25.97%, QoQ +6.32% - Q3 2024 non-recurring net profit: 12.122 billion yuan, YoY +28.58%, QoQ +12.18% [3][4]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 353.899 billion yuan, 401.047 billion yuan, and 539.259 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of -11.73%, +13.32%, and +34.46% [4]. - Net profit projections for the same years are 50.689 billion yuan, 63.570 billion yuan, and 90.208 billion yuan, with growth rates of +14.89%, +25.41%, and +41.90% [4]. Market Position - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for power batteries in Europe due to stricter carbon emission regulations set for 2025, which will likely lead to more cost-effective vehicle models being launched by automakers [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company Tianyu Digital Science (002354) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.2 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11.53%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 8.58 million yuan [1] - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 439 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.58% [1] - The decline in revenue for the first three quarters is attributed to reduced investment income from joint ventures and adjustments based on recent litigation results [1] - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance its three major business platforms, which are continuously evolving to support digital transformation and intelligent upgrades across various industries [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1.863 billion yuan, with growth rates of 5.74%, 6.02%, and 5.56% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to recover to 13.27 million yuan in 2024, with further increases to 20.10 million yuan in 2025 and 37.11 million yuan in 2026 [3] Business Development - The company has developed its proprietary "Zhizhe Qianwen" large model, which has completed algorithm and model filings [1] - The three business platforms include: 1. AI Sales SaaS platform "Mofang Mix" which provides AIGC advertising material generation and optimization [1] 2. Spatial Intelligence MaaS platform "Yuanxiang" offering foundational large model services in the 3D spatial intelligence field [1] 3. Mobile Application Distribution PaaS platform that serves numerous leading generative AI products [1] Financial Projections - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability, with net profits projected to be 0.13 million yuan in 2024, 0.20 million yuan in 2025, and 0.37 million yuan in 2026 [1] - The report anticipates a significant increase in the number of enterprise clients served, exceeding 1,600 by the end of 2024 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dongpeng Beverage with a target price of 263 RMB, based on a projected PE of 45 times for 2024 [2]. Core Insights - Dongpeng Beverage is positioned to capitalize on the growing energy drink market, which is expected to expand significantly, potentially reaching a market size of 100 billion RMB in China [1][9]. - The company has demonstrated strong growth, with a revenue CAGR of 23% from 2017 to 2023, and its flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, has surpassed 10 billion RMB in revenue [1][2]. - The energy drink segment in China has seen a CAGR of 14.0% from 2013 to 2023, indicating robust demand driven by health consciousness and efficiency needs among consumers [1][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Energy Drink Market Growth - The energy drink sector is a high-growth area within the soft drink industry, with significant expansion in consumer demographics and usage scenarios [1][9]. - The overall soft drink market in China has stabilized, with a CAGR of 3.2% from 2013 to 2023, while energy drinks have outperformed with a CAGR of 14.0% [1][9]. 2. Competitive Landscape - Dongpeng Beverage has emerged as a strong competitor in the energy drink market, increasing its market share to 24.7% in 2023, up from 8.6% in 2016 [1][9]. - The company has effectively differentiated itself through high cost-performance products and a robust channel management strategy, including a nationwide distribution network [1][9]. 3. Future Growth Prospects - Dongpeng is expected to continue its national expansion and product diversification, aiming to exceed 20 billion RMB in revenue in the near future [1][9]. - The company is also exploring new product categories, including electrolyte water and sugar-free tea, to enhance its market presence and appeal to health-conscious consumers [1][9]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Dongpeng Beverage are optimistic, with expected revenues of 158 billion RMB in 2024, 200 billion RMB in 2025, and 248 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 40%, 27%, and 24% respectively [2][3]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is 30 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 49.2% [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [4][8]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant growth in the first half of 2024, with revenue reaching 1.576 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 179 million yuan, up 99.31% [2]. - The product matrix is robust and continuously innovated, with strong R&D capabilities leading to a series of products that meet market demands, particularly in the signal chain and power management sectors [2][3]. - The company has invested heavily in R&D, with expenditures of 418 million yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a R&D expense ratio of 26.49% [3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.576 billion yuan, with a net profit of 179 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 158 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 37.27%, 99.31%, and 223.43% respectively [2]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 850 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.42% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.23% [2]. - The main business segments, signal chain and power management, generated revenues of 538 million yuan and 1.038 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.66% and 46.30% respectively [2]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.245 billion yuan, 4.006 billion yuan, and 4.895 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 423 million yuan, 668 million yuan, and 950 million yuan [4][5]. - The expected price-to-earnings ratios for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 106.57x, 67.46x, and 47.45x respectively [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [1][7]. Core Views - The company's revenue growth is driven by the strong performance of etching equipment, with a significant increase in new orders, suggesting a positive outlook for the future [1]. - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.448 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.46%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 48% to 517 million yuan [1]. - The company's etching equipment revenue reached 2.698 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of approximately 56.68%, accounting for 78.26% of total revenue [1]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 8.260 billion yuan, 12.036 billion yuan, and 15.227 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 31.87%, 45.73%, and 26.51% [3][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.886 billion yuan, 2.670 billion yuan, and 3.359 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 5.61%, 41.57%, and 25.81% [3][5]. - The company’s diluted earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.04 yuan, 4.30 yuan, and 5.41 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3][5]. Order and Production Insights - The company received new orders totaling 4.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of approximately 40.3%, with etching equipment orders growing by about 50.7% to 3.94 billion yuan [1]. - The company has maintained a leading position in the domestic semiconductor equipment market, with significant growth in the shipment of plasma etching equipment [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [1][9]. Core Views - The company reported strong performance in H1 2024, with revenue reaching 1.531 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.26%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 148 million yuan, up 199.76% year-on-year, and the non-GAAP net profit was 112 million yuan, a staggering increase of 1872.87% [2][3]. - The growth in performance is driven by sustained demand in the downstream markets, particularly in smart wearables and smart home sectors. The company's market share in smart watch and band chips has rapidly increased, supported by the launch of new products [2][3]. - The new generation wearable chip, BES2800, has been mass-produced and is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in the market, providing powerful computing capabilities and seamless connectivity for wearable devices [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.531 billion yuan, with a Q2 revenue of 878 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 66.80% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 34.45% [2][3]. - The company’s total expenses for sales, management, and R&D in H1 2024 amounted to 395 million yuan, accounting for 25.81% of revenue, which is a decrease of 7.36 percentage points compared to the previous year [3]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.156 billion yuan, 4.136 billion yuan, and 5.312 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 355 million yuan, 541 million yuan, and 777 million yuan for the same years [3][5]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) from 1.03 yuan in 2023 to 2.96 yuan in 2024, with a corresponding PE ratio decreasing from 149.21 to 90.51 [5][3]. Market Position - The company has successfully expanded its market share in the smart wearable sector, with smart watch and band chips contributing approximately 28% to its revenue in H1 2024, a notable increase from the previous year [2][3]. - The ongoing investment in high-level technology research and development is crucial for maintaining the company's core competitiveness, with R&D expenses rising by 36.76% year-on-year [3].