长沙市写字楼市场运营情况分析及展望 结构评级三部 陈海义 刘依璇 引言 资料来源：2008－2023 年联合资信根据Wind 数据整理，2024年数据为统计局发布的初步核算数据 CMBS、商业地产类 REITs 为代表的具有实物抵押的商业地产证券化已成为 企业融资的重要方式之一。商业地产的经营活动现金流作为商业地产 ABS 的主 要偿付来源，其运营状况分析是 ABS 评级工作中的重要一环。联合资信选取了 数个重点新一线及二线城市，对其商业地产中的写字楼市场进行分析，以作为商 业地产 ABS 评级分析的支撑。本文选取长沙市的写字楼市场作为研究对象，分 析区域环境、行业政策与城市规划等对长沙市写字楼市场运营状况的影响，并对 其未来发展展开分析与讨论。 在全国人口增长放缓甚至出现负增长的情形下，未来长沙市人口增速或将 区域环境分析 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00% 中国GDP同比增长 长沙GDP同比增长 图 1 2008 年－2024 年长沙市和中国 GDP 同比增长率 2008－2024 年，长沙市 GDP 增幅与全国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The "Due Diligence Rules" released in 2025 are an extension and supplement to the original rules, and are coordinated with "Guideline No. 2". The two policies complement each other, making the asset - securitization business operation more perfect and providing clearer operation guidelines for market participants. The "Due Diligence Rules" comprehensively clarify the due - diligence requirements for business participants, basic assets, cash flows, and transaction structures, strengthening risk control and reflecting the regulatory concept of "substance over form" [1][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Due Diligence on Business Participants - The "Due Diligence Rules" comprehensively sort out the due - diligence requirements for business participants, with more comprehensive operating standards and content compared to "Guideline No. 2", and add verification requirements for some institutions [2]. - **Original Equity Holder**: The "Due Diligence Rules" require due - diligence verification of the basic situation of the original equity holder, and have different requirements for verifying whether it is a real - estate enterprise or an overseas entity compared to "Guideline No. 2". However, the requirements for business, credit, authorization, and hidden local - government debt are basically the same [3][5]. - **Specific Original Equity Holder**: The "Due Diligence Rules" require verification of the main business and financial status of the specific original equity holder, as well as other important matters, which are not required in "Guideline No. 2". The requirements for production and operation compliance, continuous operation ability, and credit status are basically the same [6][8]. - **Important Cash - Flow Provider**: The "Due Diligence Rules" require verification of the basic situation, relationship with the original equity holder, and historical repayment situation of the important cash - flow provider, which are not required in "Guideline No. 2". The requirements for verifying the main business, financial status, and credit status are basically the same [9][10]. - **Credit - Enhancement Institution**: The "Due Diligence Rules" basically continue the requirements of the original rules and add new content to be verified. They require verification of the basic situation, main business, and financial status of the credit - enhancement institution, which are not required in "Guideline No. 2". The requirements for verifying serious illegal and dishonest situations, business qualifications, and regulatory indicators are basically the same [12][14]. - **Asset Service Provider**: The "Due Diligence Rules" clarify the verification of the basic situation, continuous service ability, and financial leasing business management ability of the asset service provider, which are not required in "Guideline No. 2" [15][16]. - **Other Participants**: For other participants, the requirements of the "Due Diligence Rules" and "Guideline No. 2" are generally unified, with the "Due Diligence Rules" making further requirements for some verification content [17]. 3.2 Basic Assets - The "Due Diligence Rules" update and revise the original rules and combine relevant content of "Guideline No. 2", strengthening the identification and control of basic - asset risks. "Guideline No. 2" focuses on the framework - level norms of basic - asset access standards, while the "Due Diligence Rules" refine the verification procedures at the operational level [20]. - **Main Differences**: The "Due Diligence Rules" add due - diligence requirements for the sampling of revolving - purchase basic assets, emphasize that underlying assets and cash flows should not be involved in litigation, add requirements for verifying the background and history of related - party transactions, and add the statistical requirements for the top 20 basic assets with the largest unpaid principal - balance ratio. They also add new points of attention for financial leasing assets and emphasize the verification of basic - asset dispersion [21][26][27]. - **Consistency Requirements**: The general due - diligence requirements for basic assets in the "Due Diligence Rules" are basically the same as those in "Guideline No. 2", requiring real transaction backgrounds, no fictional or controversial assets, and compliance with laws, regulations, and regulatory negative lists [38]. 3.3 Cash Flows - The due - diligence requirements for cash flows in the "Due Diligence Rules" are basically the same as those in "Guideline No. 2", with clearer requirements for the entire process from prediction to collection, transfer, and distribution [39]. - **Cash - Flow Source and Prediction**: The "Due Diligence Rules" require verification of the source of cash flows, and the parameters and indicators for cash - flow prediction are consistent with those in "Guideline No. 2". If there are significant changes in cash - flow prediction, the reasons need to be analyzed [41]. - **Cash - Flow Collection and Revolving Purchase**: The requirements for cash - flow collection and revolving - purchase in the "Due Diligence Rules" are similar to those in "Guideline No. 2", aiming to reduce the risk of fund commingling and misappropriation. For small - loan claims, the risk of fund commingling in the collection process needs to be verified [44]. - **Cash - Flow Payment Mechanism**: The "Due Diligence Rules" continue the due - diligence requirements for the cash - flow payment mechanism in "Guideline No. 2", requiring verification of the cash - flow distribution process, order, and amount or ratio distributed to investors. Exchange - rate and cross - border regulatory risks need to be considered for foreign - currency settlement [47]. 3.4 Transaction Structures - **Main Differences**: The "Due Diligence Rules" clarify the verification points for guarantee contracts, guarantee letters, collateral, and overseas credit enhancement, providing a more practical compliance framework for intermediary institutions [51]. - **Consistency Requirements**: The requirements for term - scale matching, risk retention, revolving - purchase mechanism, investor - protection mechanism, and qualified investment in the "Due Diligence Rules" are basically the same as those in "Guideline No. 2" [53].

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the impact of the "reciprocal tariff" on the credit level of the photovoltaic industry in China is limited, and the overall risk is controllable [2][10]. Core Insights - The United States announced a 10% minimum baseline tariff on all goods exported to the U.S. starting April 5, 2025, which will affect Chinese photovoltaic manufacturers exporting to the U.S. through Southeast Asia [2][4]. - Since 2011, the U.S. has implemented various export restrictions on Chinese photovoltaic components, leading to a significant reduction in direct exports to the U.S. market [7][9]. - The diversification of export regions for Chinese photovoltaic components has been increasing, with a notable rise in exports to Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, which helps mitigate risks from changing trade policies [8][10]. Summary by Sections Background of the "Reciprocal Tariff" - The U.S. President announced a 10% minimum baseline tariff on all goods exported to the U.S. starting April 5, 2025, with additional tariffs for countries with significant trade deficits or deemed to have unfair trade practices [4]. - The Chinese government responded with a 34% tariff on all imports from the U.S. starting April 10, 2025, and further escalated tariffs on U.S. goods [4][5]. Impact on the Chinese Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry - The U.S. has imposed multiple trade restrictions on Chinese photovoltaic components since 2011, significantly limiting their market space in the U.S. [7][9]. - As of 2024, the export volume of Chinese photovoltaic components is projected to reach 235.93 GW, with less than 0.03% directly exported to the U.S. [9]. - The "reciprocal tariff" will have a limited direct impact on the Chinese photovoltaic manufacturing industry due to the low percentage of exports to the U.S. and the ongoing diversification of export markets [10]. Conclusion - The Chinese photovoltaic manufacturing industry has adapted to U.S. trade restrictions by establishing production bases in Southeast Asia, although the new "reciprocal tariff" may still affect these operations [8][10]. - The overall credit level impact of the "reciprocal tariff" on the photovoltaic industry is assessed to be limited, with manageable risks due to the diversified export strategies [10].

美东时间 2025 年 4 月 2 日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署两项关于所谓"对等关税" 的行政令，对中国实施 34%"对等关税"，4 月 4 日，国务院关税税则委员会宣布自 4 月 10 日起对原产于美国的所有进口商品加征 34%关税。4 月 8 日（当地时间），美国总统特 朗普宣布对中国输美商品加征关税税率由 34%提至 84%，4 月 9 日，国务院关税税则委 员会于宣布自 4 月 10 日 12 时 01 分起对原产于美国的所有进口商品加征 84%关税。4 月 9 日（当地时间）美国总统特朗普再次宣布将对华关税提至 125%。 "对等关税"对中国化工行业进出口的影响 联合资信 工商评级三部 毛文娟 进口方面，"对等关税"对于原油和天然气供应影响有限，关注企业库存收益情况。 部分大宗商品原料（乙烷和丙烷）对美依赖度较高，需关注"对等关税"对采用乙烷裂解 和丙烷裂解工艺化工企业的不利影响。此外，中国在部分精细化工和特种化工品领域对 外依赖度高，需关注以进口美国高端化学品作为原材料的化工企业的原材料供应稳定性 和成本控制。 出口方面，部分美国对中国依赖度较高产品得到了对等关税豁免，"对等关税"对于 中国化工 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the engineering machinery industry Core Viewpoints - The "reciprocal tariff" policy by the Trump administration is expected to benefit US domestic engineering machinery companies while intensifying global competition in the industry. Chinese engineering machinery companies have limited exposure to the US market, making the overall risk manageable. The industry faces both short-term pressures and long-term opportunities as it shifts towards high-end and globalized operations, supported by domestic demand stimulation and the "Belt and Road" initiative [1][5][8] Summary by Sections Impact of Tariffs - The "reciprocal tariff" policy includes a minimum baseline tariff of 10% on all goods exported to the US, effective April 5, 2025, with additional tariffs for countries with significant trade deficits or deemed to engage in "unfair trade" [3][4] Export Trends - Chinese engineering machinery exports have been growing, particularly to countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative, with exports to these regions reaching $21.055 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%, accounting for 47.2% of total exports. The share of exports to the US has decreased, currently representing about 7%-8% of total exports, with major companies like SANY, Zoomlion, and XCMG having less than 5% exposure to the US market [5][8] Competitive Landscape - US brands such as Caterpillar and John Deere hold a combined market share of 52% in the US market, and the high tariffs are likely to strengthen their market position. European and Japanese companies are also facing similar tariff pressures, which may heighten competition in other global markets [7][8] Strategic Responses - Major Chinese engineering machinery companies are expanding their overseas production capabilities and entering emerging markets to mitigate risks. For instance, SANY has established a factory in North America, while Zoomlion and Hengli Hydraulic have set up operations in Mexico and Brazil to cater to local demand [7][8] Future Outlook - While short-term challenges exist due to increased tariffs leading to a decline in exports to the US, the long-term outlook is positive as the industry is pushed towards higher-end and globalized operations. The focus of competition is expected to shift towards technological innovation and localized service capabilities rather than merely the gains or losses in a single market [8]

关税政策将对全球汽车行业产生深远影响。虽然中国对美直接出口整车 基数较低，短期内冲击有限，但转口贸易和零部件出口面临较大压力。同时， 该政策迫使全球汽车行业进行供应链重构和产业布局调整。但挑战与机遇并 存，中国汽车行业将加速开拓新兴市场，核心技术突破与国产替代必将加速， 推动本土产业链的建设，增强企业抗风险能力。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 "对等关税"对中国汽车行业影响 联合资信 工商评级三部 苏柏文 美东时间 2025 年 4 月 2 日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署两项关于所谓 "对等关税"的行政令，对中国实施 34%"对等关税"，4 月 4 日，国务院 关税税则委员会宣布自 4 月 10 日起对原产于美国的所有进口商品加征 34% 关税。4 月 8 日（当地时间），美国总统特朗普宣布对中国输美商品加征关税 税率由 34%提至 84%，4 月 9 日，国务院关税税则委员会于宣布自 4 月 10 日 12 时 01 分起对原产于美国的所有进口商品加征 84%关税。4 月 9 日（当 地时间）美国总统特朗普再次宣布将对华关税提至 125%。 "对等关税"背景 截至当地时间 2025 年 4 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the credit risk level of the factoring industry in China is expected to remain stable by 2025 [5][32]. Core Insights - The regulatory environment is tightening, which is beneficial for the long-term standardized development of the industry. The number of factoring companies is expected to decrease further due to increased regulatory scrutiny [6][32]. - The macroeconomic slowdown and the deceleration of accounts receivable turnover are creating more business opportunities for the factoring industry, which is currently experiencing significant market potential [6][19]. - The profitability of factoring companies may face challenges due to declining interest margins, but rapid growth in business scale could enhance operating income [6][33]. - The application of financial technology is expected to improve efficiency and security in the factoring industry, particularly in areas such as process optimization and risk management [6][33]. - The market share of market-oriented factoring businesses is expected to increase significantly, with a high proportion of existing businesses related to engineering and real estate projects, which poses greater risk control pressure [6][34]. Industry Overview - Factoring, also known as accounts receivable financing, is a financial transaction where a business sells its receivables to a third party (the factor) to improve cash flow and reduce credit risk [7]. - The traditional factoring business in China is primarily conducted by banks, which focus on financing and require strict credit assessments of sellers [8]. - The commercial factoring sector has evolved from rapid growth to a phase of regulatory tightening, with a more complete regulatory framework being established [9][10]. Industry Development and Policies - Since 2012, the commercial factoring industry in China has undergone significant changes, including pilot explorations and subsequent regulatory reforms [9][11]. - The regulatory responsibilities for commercial factoring were transferred from the Ministry of Commerce to the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission in 2018, leading to stricter oversight [11][12]. - The introduction of the "205 Document" in 2019 set forth quantitative regulatory indicators to standardize the operations of commercial factoring companies [12][13]. Industry Performance - The factoring industry has shown a counter-cyclical characteristic, with increasing demand for factoring services due to the growing scale of accounts receivable and extended collection periods [19][20]. - The total accounts receivable of industrial enterprises in China has been growing rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.71% from 2022 to 2024 [20]. - The commercial factoring business volume has increased significantly, with annual volumes reaching over 3 trillion yuan in 2024 [21]. Credit Rating Situation - As of the first quarter of 2025, very few commercial factoring companies have obtained credit ratings, with most rated companies being state-owned enterprises [22]. - The highest-rated companies include Guoxin Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd. and Guoneng (Beijing) Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd., both rated AAA [23]. Bond Issuance Situation - As of the end of 2024, only Guoxin Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd. had outstanding credit bonds, with a total issuance scale of 6.5 billion yuan [26]. - The issuance of asset-backed securities (ABS) by commercial factoring companies has decreased due to the downturn in the real estate sector [26][27].

Core Insights - The "Interim Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Microfinance Companies" aims to enhance the regulatory framework for the microfinance industry, emphasizing risk management and compliance [2][18] - The measures maintain the principle of small and dispersed loans, promoting inclusive finance while setting stricter operational guidelines for microfinance companies [2][18] Group 1: Impact on Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) - The new regulations raise the entry threshold for microfinance companies to issue ABS, requiring approval from provincial financial regulatory bodies and emphasizing good corporate governance and risk management [4][5] - The measures continue to enforce leverage ratios, limiting the amount of funds raised through non-standard financing methods to no more than the company's net assets from the previous year [5][4] Group 2: Business Operations and Regional Restrictions - The measures reinforce the small and dispersed loan principle, specifying that online microfinance loans for consumption and production should not exceed RMB 200,000 and RMB 10 million respectively [6][7] - The geographical expansion of microfinance companies is allowed but remains limited to inter-city operations as defined by provincial financial regulatory bodies, maintaining a regional characteristic [6][7] Group 3: Prohibition of Certain Business Practices - The measures prohibit microfinance companies from engaging in "assisted lending" and set a minimum contribution ratio for joint loans, which may impact the scale and structure of joint loan ABS issuance [9][10] - Microfinance companies must not outsource core functions such as credit assessment and risk control, ensuring that they maintain direct responsibility for these critical areas [10][9] Group 4: Strengthening Compliance and Risk Management - The measures require microfinance companies to implement a standardized asset classification system and risk reserve management, enhancing asset quality management and compliance [13][14] - A clear definition of non-performing loans is established, which will improve cash flow recovery processes and enhance the monitoring of underlying asset quality for ABS [13][14] Group 5: Expanded Business Scope - The measures allow microfinance companies to engage in commercial bill acceptance and discounting, broadening their revenue sources and providing new channels for bill transactions [16][17] - Microfinance companies are prohibited from issuing or selling wealth management products, ensuring a focus on core lending activities [17][16] Group 6: Overall Industry Development - The "Interim Measures" are expected to lead to a more competitive and regulated microfinance market, enhancing the overall development of the industry [18][19] - As a key issuer of ABS, microfinance companies are positioned to maintain a significant role in the ABS market, benefiting from improved regulatory standards and operational practices [18][19]

商业地产作为经营性物业，其发展主要受到国民经济整体发展速度、城市化水平 以及社会消费能力的影响；同时，由于商业地产的投资属性突出，其发展速度短期内 受社会融资成本和通货膨胀率的影响较大。2024 年，我国国内生产总值同比增长 5.0% （按不变价计算），经济总体运行平稳，但依然面临着国内有效需求不足、企业经营 压力较大的挑战。从商业地产细分行业来看，全年商业营业用房开发投资完成额 6943.97 亿元，同比下降 13.9%；新开工面积 4980.32 万平方米，同比下降 23.30%。 同期，办公楼开发投资完成额 4159.88 亿元，同比下降 9.0%；新开工面积 1892.93 万 平方米，同比下降 27.7%。商业营业用房和办公楼开发投资完成额降幅有所收窄，但 新开工面积降幅均有所扩大，预计未来几年商业地产新增供应量将显著下滑。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 2 2025 年商业地产行业分析 联合资信 工商评级一部 2024 年商业地产行业在销售端延续去库存态势，新增供应持续缩减， 开发投资低迷。租赁方面，一线城市零售物业出租率有一定企稳改善迹象， 但租金水平仍缓步下滑；写字楼出租率和租 ...

科创企业具有高科技、高成长、市场前景广阔等特征，是我国新质生产力重要组 成部分，但由于其高风险性、轻资产、融资渠道有限等因素，致使其融资较为困难。 2025 年《政府工作报告》提出"推动科技创新和产业创新融合发展"，加快多层次债 券市场发展。3 月 6 日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在十四届全国人大三次会议经济主 题记者会上表示，科技创新活动复杂多元，处于不同生命周期的企业的风险特征和金 融需求有很大差异，金融供给的适配性要进一步提升。人民银行将会同证监会、科技 部等部门创新推出债券市场的科技板，支持金融机构、科技型企业、私募股权投资机 构等三类主体，发行科技创新债券，丰富科技创新债券的产品体系。国家发改委主任 郑栅洁表示，持续加大科技创新投入力度。国资委将组建国家创业投资引导基金，带 动地方资金、社会资本合计近 1 万亿元，聚焦硬科技、坚持长周期、提高容错率，通 过市场化方式投向科技型企业；同时，完善并购重组、份额转让等政策，鼓励发展并 购基金等，畅通创业投资退出渠道，更大力度吸引社会资本参与创业投资。中国证监 会主席吴清表示，资本市场支持科技企业不只有上市一条路也不只有股票一种工具， 债券、可转债、优先股、资 ...