Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the issuance of Sci-tech bonds by urban investment companies, suggesting that the marketization transformation of these companies will accelerate [3][15]. Core Insights - Sci-tech bonds are essential financial instruments aimed at promoting technological innovation and industrial transformation, with urban investment companies increasingly participating in their issuance since the pilot program began in March 2021 [3][5]. - The issuance of Sci-tech bonds by urban investment companies has been growing annually, with a notable increase in the number of bonds issued and the total amount raised [15][16]. - The report highlights that urban investment companies are transitioning towards market-oriented operations, utilizing equity investments and industrial funds as part of their transformation strategy [3][15]. Policy Evolution - The report outlines the evolution of policies related to the issuance of Sci-tech bonds, starting from the pilot program in March 2021 to the formal launch in May 2022, and subsequent revisions in October 2023 and December 2024 [5][6]. - Key policies have been established by exchanges and regulatory bodies to guide the issuance of Sci-tech bonds, emphasizing the need for issuers to demonstrate significant technological innovation attributes or direct the raised funds towards technology-related fields [4][8]. Issuance Requirements - The report details the requirements for issuing Sci-tech bonds, which vary between exchanges and the interbank market, focusing on the issuer's creditworthiness and the intended use of raised funds [9][13]. - For exchange-listed bonds, issuers must generally maintain a debt-to-asset ratio below 80% and ensure that at least 70% of the raised funds are directed towards technology innovation [9][10]. Urban Investment Companies' Issuance Status - Since the launch of Sci-tech bonds, urban investment companies have issued a total of 117 bonds amounting to approximately 93.05 billion yuan, with a steady increase in issuance scale observed from 2021 to 2025 [16][22]. - The report notes that urban investment companies primarily issue medium to long-term bonds, with a significant portion of issuers located in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Chongqing, and Sichuan [17][22]. Characteristics of Issuers - The report categorizes urban investment companies into Sci-tech and non-Sci-tech issuers, with the majority being non-Sci-tech, relying on the allocation of funds towards technology innovation to meet issuance requirements [26][31]. - Among the successful issuers, a small percentage are recognized as Sci-tech issuers, primarily due to their substantial R&D investments, while most non-Sci-tech issuers focus on equity and fund investments [28][31]. Financial and Business Features - The financial characteristics of urban investment companies indicate a diversified income structure, with many companies generating significant revenue from market-oriented activities rather than traditional urban investment operations [34][39]. - The report emphasizes the increasing contribution of investment income to overall profits, highlighting a trend towards greater marketization and diversification within the sector [39][48].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a weak supply and demand situation in the steel industry, with expectations of continued operational pressure for steel enterprises in the short term and a shift towards high-quality development in the long term [2][28]. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry in China is experiencing a slight decline in crude steel production, with 2024 projections showing a production of 1,005 million tons, down from 1,019 million tons in 2023 [4][9]. - The overall profitability of the steel industry is declining due to excess supply and weak downstream demand, particularly from the real estate sector, which has seen a significant drop in investment [4][20]. - The report anticipates that steel prices will maintain a volatile trend in 2025, with no significant improvement in the operational efficiency of steel enterprises [28][29]. Industry Operation Status - The steel industry is currently in a phase of exploration, with supply exceeding demand and product prices declining [4]. - Crude steel production from 2022 to 2024 is projected to be 1,013 million tons, 1,019 million tons, and 1,005 million tons respectively, indicating a downward trend [4]. - The first three quarters of 2024 saw a decline in steel prices, but a rebound occurred in late September due to favorable monetary policies [7][9]. Upstream and Downstream Situation - The real estate sector continues to decline, impacting steel demand, while manufacturing and infrastructure investments provide some support [10][20]. - The report highlights that iron ore imports are expected to rise from 1,107 million tons in 2022 to 1,237 million tons in 2024, with a high dependency on imports [11]. - The focus on high-quality steel products is increasing, with manufacturing steel consumption rising from 42% in 2020 to 50% in 2024 [21]. Industry Policies and Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of reducing crude steel production capacity to alleviate supply-demand imbalances and improve profitability [22]. - Policies are being implemented to accelerate the digital transformation and upgrade of the steel industry, focusing on energy conservation and emission reduction [24][25]. - The report notes that while steel exports have increased, trade barriers and tariffs are intensifying competition in the domestic market [26][27]. Industry Outlook - The steel industry is expected to continue facing supply and demand weaknesses in 2025, with a slight decrease in demand anticipated [28]. - The report suggests that while short-term pressures will persist, long-term improvements are expected as inefficient capacities are phased out [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable outlook for the power and electrical equipment manufacturing industry, projecting continued growth and investment in the sector through 2025 [2][18][23]. Core Insights - The power and electrical equipment manufacturing industry is experiencing steady growth, driven by increased electricity consumption and significant investments in power generation and grid infrastructure [4][18]. - The industry is closely linked to national economic performance and electricity investment demand, with a projected 6.8% year-on-year increase in total electricity consumption in 2024 [4][18]. - The construction of new energy systems and the development of high-voltage transmission lines are expected to create substantial opportunities for the industry [2][18][19]. Industry Overview - The power and electrical equipment manufacturing industry is a crucial part of the national economy, with a favorable external environment and significant investment growth in 2024 [4][8]. - In 2024, total electricity investment is expected to reach 1.78 trillion yuan, a 13.2% increase year-on-year, with major investments in power generation and grid projects [8][10]. - The industry is characterized by a competitive landscape with many small and medium-sized enterprises, and the competition is intensifying due to centralized bidding practices by major state-owned enterprises [11][12]. Policy Support - Recent policies aim to eliminate local protectionism and optimize resource allocation for the renewable energy industry, fostering a more competitive market environment [15][17]. - The government has outlined a series of initiatives to enhance energy infrastructure and promote the development of a new power system, emphasizing the importance of renewable energy integration [16][17]. Future Outlook - The implementation of the "dual carbon" strategy and the anticipated growth in energy demand will support the development of the power equipment manufacturing industry [18][19]. - The construction of ultra-high voltage transmission lines and smart grids is expected to drive significant investment and innovation in the sector [19][21]. - The industry is poised for stability and growth, with substantial investments planned by major grid companies during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [18][23].

2025 年有色金属行业分析 联合资信 | 工商评级三部 2024 年以来，避险需求增加带动黄金价格持续上涨，传统工业金属铜、铝、锌价中枢明显上移，但受供需失衡等因素影 响，新能源类金属价格承压。中国有色金属产业整体呈现稳中向好态势，产业景气综合指数呈上升态势。具体来看： （1）铜：新能源产业强劲需求对国际铜价形成一定支撑；但我国高度依赖进口资源的情况无法改善。铜价整体波动很大， 2024 年以来受供应紧张影响震荡上行，加工费暴跌至负值，铜冶炼企业经营压力明显加大。 （2）铝：中国铝土矿对外依存度高，2024 年铝消费市场呈现显著的结构性分化特征，中国氧化铝价格在铝土矿供应短缺 和下游电解铝需求旺盛双重因素推动下大幅上涨；LME 铝价受宏观经济政策、国际贸易环境等因素影响波动幅度较大。 （3）铅：中国为全球最大的铅精矿和再生铅生产国，2024 年全球铅市场呈现供需紧平衡局面，LME 铅价于二季度冲高 后回落。 （4）锌：2024 年以来，全球锌矿产量延续下降趋势，但受益于下游新能源需求增加以及经济政策刺激投资需求回升使得 锌市场呈现供不应求局面，LME 锌价中枢明显上移。 www.lhratings.com ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the guarantee industry [2] Core Insights - The guarantee industry in China has entered a business adjustment period since 2022, with a decrease in the scale of financial product guarantee business and high credit risk levels [4][5] - The financial guarantee institutions are categorized into national guarantee companies, credit enhancement companies, provincial guarantee companies, and municipal guarantee companies, each with different operational areas and business types [4] - The market share of the top ten financial guarantee institutions was 60.18% at the end of 2024, a decrease of 3.19 percentage points from the end of 2023, indicating a high industry concentration [5] - The credit ratings of guaranteed financial products are primarily concentrated in the AA category, accounting for 71.41%, with a slight decline from the previous year [5] - The report highlights the importance of re-guarantee companies in risk dispersion and transfer within the guarantee system, suggesting that government-led establishment of re-guarantee companies is an effective solution [6] Industry Overview - The financial guarantee business has shown a trend of stabilization followed by decline, with the total guarantee balance projected to decrease from 9,642.07 billion yuan in 2022 to 8,355.71 billion yuan by the end of 2024 [5] - The report notes that the government has been increasingly supportive of small and micro enterprises, agriculture, and technology innovation through various policies [7][8] - The establishment of a multi-level government financing guarantee system is underway, which includes national, provincial, and municipal levels to address financing difficulties for small and micro enterprises [12] Future Trends - The national government financing guarantee system is expected to continue improving, with stronger credit competitive advantages for provincial guarantee institutions in economically robust regions [12] - The report anticipates that the guarantee industry will face pressure on business growth due to a shrinking market capacity and increasing competition among market participants [14] - There is a trend towards enhancing risk control capabilities, especially for local guarantee institutions, which can leverage their understanding of regional enterprises [16]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a balanced investment outlook for the power industry in 2025, with a focus on ensuring stable supply and promoting clean energy investments [3][31]. Core Insights - The power supply in China is expected to remain generally balanced in 2024, but localized shortages may occur during peak demand periods due to extreme weather and fuel shortages [3][31]. - Clean energy investments are rapidly increasing, with installed capacity of clean energy surpassing that of thermal power for the first time by the end of 2024 [5][8]. - The report highlights the importance of technological innovation in ensuring safe and stable power supply, establishing a market-oriented pricing system, and accelerating the construction of a new power system [31][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Thermal power remains the primary source of electricity in China, but clean energy investments are growing rapidly, particularly in wind and solar power [5][8]. - In 2024, China's power grid construction investment reached 608.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.3% [5]. - The total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.35 billion kilowatts by the end of 2024, with non-fossil energy accounting for 58.2% of the total [8][10]. 2. Power Generation and Demand - Total electricity consumption in China reached 9.85 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [10]. - The utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased to 3,442 hours, with coal power still accounting for over 60% of total generation [10][12]. - The report notes that the marketization of electricity trading is progressing, with 63% of total electricity consumption coming from market transactions [10]. 3. Nuclear Power Overview - China's nuclear power capacity reached 59.43 million kilowatts by the end of 2024, with a utilization rate of 7,805 hours, reflecting a year-on-year increase [13][16]. - The report emphasizes the stability and efficiency of nuclear power operations, with new projects contributing to capacity growth [13][16]. 4. Hydropower Overview - Hydropower remains a major renewable energy source in China, with installed capacity reaching 436 million kilowatts by the end of 2024 [20]. - The report indicates that hydropower generation efficiency is influenced by water availability, with a significant increase in generation due to improved water conditions [20]. 5. Industry Focus and Policy Adjustments - The report discusses the volatility of coal prices and the government's measures to stabilize the market, including enhancing coal supply capabilities [21][23]. - It highlights the need for market-oriented reforms in renewable energy pricing to promote high-quality development in the sector [24][25]. - The establishment of new energy storage systems and virtual power plants is emphasized as crucial for supporting the new power system [26][29]. 6. Industry Outlook - The power supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight in 2025, particularly during peak periods, with continued growth in installed capacity [31][32]. - The report anticipates that coal prices will stabilize, but thermal power companies will still face cost pressures [31][32].

2025 年煤炭行业分析 联合资信 工商评级三部 2024 年，全国煤炭产量保持稳定，且进一步向晋陕蒙和新疆地区集中；煤炭进口量快速增加，但下游 需求支撑不足，煤炭价格震荡回落，行业整体盈利水平有所下滑。2025 年，煤炭供需预计将维持供略大于 求的状态，动力煤价格中枢预计将小幅下移，受下游钢铁及房地产行业持续疲软影响，炼焦煤价格或将进 一步下探。煤炭行业企业的收入、利润及经营获现规模将小幅下降，考虑到新增产能审批趋严，在行业整 体没有大规模投资支出的情况下，煤炭行业企业整体债务负担及偿债能力有望保持稳定。但仍需关注非经 营性负担对煤炭企业可持续发展带来压力，以及新能源快速发展对传统能源发展空间的挤压等。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、 行业整体运行情况 煤炭是中国重要的基础能源，在国民经济中具有重要的战略地位。2024 年，全国 煤炭产量保持稳定，煤炭进口量快速增加带动市场整体供应增长；下游火电行业对煤 炭消费需求稳健，但钢铁及建材行业需求支撑不足，煤炭价格震荡回落，行业整体盈 利水平有所下降。 "富煤、贫油、少气"是中国能源资源的基 ...

联合资信 结构评级三部 |王劲蒙 |韩子腾 2025 年 3 月 27 日，中国证券投资基金业协会发布了《不动产抵押贷款债权资 产证券化业务尽职调查工作细则》等三项自律规则，同时于 2019 年 6 月 24 日 发布的《企业应收账款资产证券化业务尽职调查工作细则》《融资租赁债权资产 证券化业务尽职调查工作细则》《政府和社会资本合作（PPP）项目资产证券化 业务尽职调查工作细则》（中基协字〔2019〕292 号）废止。 本文将《不动产抵押贷款债权资产证券化业务尽职调查工作细则》进行拆解， 并结合上海证券交易所以及深圳证券交易所发布的相关业务规则进行分析，为 后续不动产抵押贷款债权资产证券化尽调工作提供相关参考。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 【政策解读】不动产抵押贷款债 权尽调新规解读 背景介绍 2025 年 3 月 27 日，中国证券投资基金业协会（以下简称"中基协"）发布了《不 动产抵押贷款债权资产证券化业务尽职调查工作细则》（以下简称"《不动产抵押贷款 债权尽调细则》"，与《债权类资产证券化业务尽职调查工作细则》和《未来经营收入 类资产证券化业务尽职调查工作细则》合称"《尽调细则》" ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable outlook for the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry, with expectations for revenue recovery and profit stabilization in 2024 [1][4]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry is experiencing a recovery in revenue and stabilization in profit levels due to the normalization of policies such as medical insurance cost control and volume-based procurement [1][3]. - The industry is heavily influenced by policies that promote innovation in drug research and development, as well as the regulation of the market through anti-corruption measures [7][8]. - The demand for pharmaceuticals is expected to continue growing, supported by an aging population and improvements in medical insurance payment capabilities [16][17]. Industry Overview - In 2024, the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector is projected to see a rebound in revenue, with total revenue for large-scale enterprises estimated at 25,298.50 billion, a slight increase from the previous year [4]. - The number of pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises in China reached 9,793 by the end of 2024, with an increase in the number of loss-making companies, indicating a growing industry divide [12][13]. - The medical insurance fund's income and expenditure are expected to rise, enhancing the overall financial health of the pharmaceutical sector [16]. Policy Impact - Recent policies have reinforced the integration of medical, insurance, and pharmaceutical sectors, encouraging the development of innovative drugs and high-quality traditional Chinese medicine [7][8]. - The implementation of volume-based procurement has led to significant price reductions for many drugs, impacting the profitability of pharmaceutical companies [13][14]. - The government is focusing on optimizing drug pricing mechanisms and enhancing the regulatory framework to support innovation and prevent irrational price competition [17][18]. Industry Challenges - The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry faces structural challenges, including a high number of small and fragmented companies, which limits competitiveness and innovation [12][13]. - Research and development investment remains insufficient compared to developed countries, hindering the industry's ability to innovate and adapt to market demands [13][19]. - The concentration of new drug approvals remains high in certain therapeutic areas, particularly oncology, indicating a need for diversification in drug development [19][20].

关税博弈狂飙！底层逻辑及行业影响分析 联合资信 研究中心 |王 妍 |王信鑫 |吴 玥 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 摘要 2025 年 4 月 3 日，美国总统特朗普宣布"对等关税"政策，对进口自所有国家 的商品征收 10%的关税，针对中国征收 34%的进口关税，并取消小额关税豁免。对 此，中国迅速采取包括报复性关税、出口管制等在内的反制措施，对原产于美国的所 有进口商品，在现行适用关税税率基础上加征 34%关税。4 月 8 日，特朗普政府宣布 在 34%的基础之上再次对中国加征 50%的关税。4 月 9 日特朗普表示将对中国关税 征收提升至 125%。 从特朗普政府综合博弈的政策特点来看，结合上一轮中美贸易摩擦的走势，后续 通过中美通过谈判缓和关税摩擦的可能性较高。 特朗普政府"对等关税"政策本质是经济民族主义与地缘战略的混合产物，征收 逻辑的本质是以关税为筹码，试探各国底线，寻求对自身最有利的谈判结果。同时差 异化豁免与选择性施压策略引发全球产业链"重新站队"，将贸易问题与地缘政治绑 定。中国的应对策略既坚守多边主义底线，又通过市场多元化和国际协调构建战略韧 性。当前在冲突持续升级与 ...