| --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|---------------------------------------|-------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | www.ccxi.com.cn | | | 中诚信国际行业展望 | | | | | 中诚信国际 | | | | | | | 2024 | 年 4 月 | | 行业展望 证券行业 | | | | | | | | | | 2024 年中国证券行业展望：行业分化加 | | | | | | | 目录 | | | 剧，兼并整合或将再现 | | 摘要 | 1 | | 资本市场全面深化改革持续推进、多层次资本市场建设进一步完善，证 | | 市场环境及行业政策 | 2 | | 券行业向高质量发展迈出坚实步伐。 2023 年以来证券行业分化加剧， | | 证券行业 IPO | 及再融资情况 3 | | ...

Economic Overview - The macroeconomic indicators for January-February 2024 show a steady improvement, with industrial value-added growth at 7%, up 2.4 percentage points from December 2023[9] - Fixed asset investment growth has marginally improved but remains down 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous year, with real estate investment declining by 9%[9][24] - The government has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2024, aligning with market expectations[9][24] Production and Investment - Industrial production continues to show resilience, with 39 out of 41 industrial sectors reporting positive growth, particularly in high-tech and consumer goods manufacturing[16][19] - Manufacturing investment has accelerated due to equipment upgrades, with high-tech manufacturing value-added growth at 7.5%[16] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 6.3% year-on-year, although it is still significantly lower than the previous year's figures[24] Consumption Trends - Social retail sales (retail sales) grew by 5.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points from December 2023, indicating a weak recovery in consumer spending[28] - Service consumption remains strong, with a 12.3% increase in service retail sales, while goods retail sales grew by only 4.6%[28] - Despite a vibrant tourism sector during the Spring Festival, per capita spending remains weak, down 10% compared to 2019 levels[28] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment continues to decline, with a 20.5% drop in new residential sales area and a 29.3% decrease in sales revenue year-on-year[24] - The decline in real estate investment has slowed marginally, but the overall trend remains negative, with significant uncertainty about a potential recovery[24][33] - The consumer confidence index in the real estate sector remains low, indicating ongoing pressure on housing sales[33]

2 月 11 日，巴基斯坦选举委员会公布 2024 年国民议会选举最终 结果：隶属于正义运动党的独立参选人集团获得 92 席，处于领先地位， 穆斯林联盟获得 79 席，人民党获得 54 席。但由于没有政党获得超过 半数（168）席位，需要各方协商联合组建内阁政府并召开国民议会会 议选举总理。 巴基斯坦大选导致该国政治不确定性攀升，或影响该国与 IMF 达成新贷款协议。目前，穆斯林联盟（纳瓦兹·谢里夫派）和人民党 （比拉瓦尔·布托·扎尔达里派）决定联手组建联合政府以遏制正义 运动党（伊姆兰·汗派）的领先地位，并计划与其他小型政党共同提 名前总理夏巴兹·谢里夫为总理职位候选人。根据巴基斯坦宪法，看 守政府和选举委员会应在 2 月 29 日前召开国民议会会议并选举新总 理。然而，由于人民党意图获得巴基斯坦重要部门以及国民议会议长 和参议院主席的职位，两党在历经 5 轮谈判后尚未就权力分享方案达 成一致。与此同时，多数巴基斯坦民众仍支持正义运动党，若该党派 在组阁过程中持续被边缘化，将进一步激发该国民众不满情绪，抬升 该国社会动荡及政局波动风险。 3 国际宏观资讯周报 期内改善工人的经济状况，但在青年失业率高和经济压 ...

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Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the consumption-based infrastructure REITs in China, suggesting a favorable development environment supported by policy measures, although the market is still in its early stages [10][12]. Core Insights - The first batch of consumption-based infrastructure REITs launched in March 2024 provides a new financing channel for real estate companies holding quality shopping centers, aiding their strategic transformation [7][10]. - The commercial real estate market in China is substantial, and with ongoing policy support, the prospects for consumption-based infrastructure REITs are promising, despite current limitations in institutional development and market performance [10][12]. - The report highlights that the issuance of consumption-based infrastructure REITs is heavily reliant on the original equity holders and their associated parties, indicating a high dependency on their subscription during the initial issuance phase [10][12]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Hotspots - The first batch of consumption-based infrastructure REITs has been launched, with a total issuance scale of 8.923 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 8% of the total public REITs fundraising [7][9]. - The underlying assets of these REITs generally possess good location advantages, with occupancy rates above 98% for most, except for one community commercial REIT [7][9]. Section 2: Real Estate Financing Policies - Recent policies have continued to support reasonable financing for various types of real estate companies, expanding the scope and limits of operating property loans, which helps improve liquidity for companies with substantial holding properties [10][12]. - The implementation of a real estate financing coordination mechanism is expected to ensure the smooth development of "white list" projects, boosting buyer confidence and stabilizing the market [10][12]. Section 3: Inventory and Market Dynamics - As of February 2024, the nationwide inventory of unsold commercial housing reached 375.969 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, indicating growing inventory pressure [12][13]. - The report notes that the inventory turnover cycle in first-tier cities has been increasing, with Shanghai facing the least pressure, while Shenzhen is expected to experience significant challenges due to the influx of government-subsidized housing [12][13]. Section 4: Sales and Investment Trends - The sales amount in January and February 2024 saw a year-on-year decline, with a drop of 29.3% in sales area and 20.5% in sales amount, reflecting a low operating state in the market [14][15]. - Despite a slowdown in land supply, the transaction amount increased year-on-year, with high-quality land in key cities attracting interest from real estate companies [14][15].

2009年7月，经国务院同意，原银监会颁布《消费金融公司试点管理办法》（以下简称"《试点 办法》"），此后在北京、天津、上海、成都4地各设立1家机构进行试点，待积累经验后推广。 经过3年试点与总结，2013年11月，《试点办法》迎来修订，对主要出资人条件、业务范围和 经营规则等方面作出修改和调整，并按照"一地一家"原则，启动扩大试点申请，随后消费 金融公司步入快速发展阶段。截至2022年末，全国共有30家消费金融公司成立展业，贷款余 额达8,348.78亿元，同比增长17.48%。与此同时，消费金融公司的业务模式和风险特征均发生 显著变化，且近年来监管部门在公司治理、股权管理、消费者权益保护等方面出台了一系列 监管制度法规，为满足行业发展和监管需求、适用现行委任性或准用性规范，金融监管总局 于2023年12月公开征求意见并于2024年3月正式发布《消费金融公司管理办法》，新办法主要 在提高准入标准、强化业务分类监管、加强公司治理监督、强化风险管理以及加强消费者权 益保护等五个方面进行了修订。 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|------------------- ...

年同期回落 0.3 个百分点、但较去年全年回升 1.3 个百分点；完成全年预算进度达 15.28%，高于近五年来水平，前置发力特征明显，或与去年增发的万亿国债已下 达完毕并落实至项目有关。其中，中央支出 4828 亿元，同比增长 14.0%、较去年 同期抬升 5.3 个百分点，地方支出 38796 亿元，同比增长 5.8%、较去年同期回落 1 个百分点。 2024 年 1-2 月财政数据点评 居民收入掣肘下个税跌幅创新高，支出前置发力但专项债发行偏慢 2024 年 1-2 月财政数据点评 居民收入掣肘下个税跌幅创新高，支出前置发力但专项债发行偏慢 www.ccxi.com.cn 一般公共预算收入完成进度偏慢，居民收入掣肘下个人所得税创近五年最大跌幅 一般公共预算支出前置发力，基建发力明显、债务付息压力仍较大 2024 年 1-2 月财政数据点评 居民收入掣肘下个税跌幅创新高，支出前置发力但专项债发行偏慢 www.ccxi.com.cn 3 新增专项债发行放缓拖累政府性基金预算支出下滑，央地支出一升一降。1-2月， 全国政府性基金预算支出 11223亿元，同比下降 10.2%，或主要与今年新增专项债 发行节奏大 ...

Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The new management measures increase the minimum shareholding requirement for major investors from 30% to 50%, significantly narrowing the pool of eligible investors and enhancing shareholder responsibility[2] - The minimum registered capital requirement for establishing consumer finance companies has been raised from 300 million RMB to 1 billion RMB, aimed at strengthening the risk resistance capacity of these companies[2] - As of February 2024, there are 15 consumer finance companies with major investors holding less than 50%, 6 companies not meeting the experience requirement, and 10 companies with registered capital below 1 billion RMB[2] Group 2: Risk Management Enhancements - The new regulations introduce a liquidity ratio requirement of no less than 50%, compared to the 25% minimum for commercial banks, reflecting the reliance of consumer finance companies on interbank borrowing[9] - New provisions require that the balance of guaranteed loans must not exceed 50% of the total loan balance, addressing the over-reliance on financing guarantee companies[9] - A dedicated chapter on "Risk Disposal and Market Exit" has been established to clarify procedures for dissolution, takeover, or bankruptcy of consumer finance companies[9] Group 3: Corporate Governance Improvements - The management measures emphasize corporate governance, including shareholder obligations not to pledge or trust their shares, with at least 5 companies still having share pledges as of February 2024[10] - The new regulations require consumer finance companies to establish a consumer rights protection committee and improve information disclosure mechanisms to safeguard consumer interests[20]

om.cn（） 专题研究 中诚信国际 结构融资部 杨 威 wyang@ccxi.com.cn 刘祚亨 zhliu@ccxi.com.cn 王 立 lwang03@ccxi.com.cn 项目到期与清算方面，自 2017 年至 2023 年所发行的 61 单微小 企业贷款 ABS产品中，已有 36单产品完成清算，清算比例为 57.4%。 具体微小企业贷款 ABS 产品的发行及清算情况见下图。 资料来源：wind，中诚信国际整理 ` 3 微小企业贷款 ABS 产品的清算方式包括清仓回购、全部变现（含对外转让）、原状分配 等。其中清仓回购是发起机构的一项选择权，一般在资产池未偿本金余额降至初始资产池未 偿本金余额的 10%或以下，或资产支持证券余额降至初始发行面值的 10%或以下时，发起机 构通过回购资产池剩余基础资产，进而完成资产支持证券兑付与产品清算。全部变现是指资 产池全部清收处置完毕，非现金信托财产全部变现。清仓回购与全部变现的清算方式，通常 发生在次级档证券对外配售的情况下。原状分配是指将非现金信托财产"原状"分配给剩余 资产支持证券持有人，尚未兑付的资产支持证券持有人最终将获得部分贷款资产，这种清算 方 ...