意大利 2024 年第一季度 GDP 较上一季度增长 0.3%，同比增长 0.6%，三产均有所增长。在需求方面，国内部分有负贡献，而国外净 部分有正贡献。4 月，扣除能源和新鲜食品后的基本通胀率从 2.3%降 至 2.2%，仅扣除能源商品的通胀率则从 2.4%降至 2.2%。商品价格趋 势略有下降，服务价格略有放缓，导致服务业和商品部门之间的通胀 差异扩大。 6、IMF 警告巴基斯坦经济面临重大下行风险，代表团将于 5 月下旬 赴巴谈判 5 月 10 日，IMF 支持小组抵达巴基斯坦，IMF 代表团将于 5.16 抵 达巴基斯坦，与该国金融团队讨论新的长期贷款计划。IMF 认为，巴 基斯坦下行风险仍然非常高。虽然新政府已表示打算继续实施 SBA（备 用安排）政策，但政治不确定性仍然很大。IMF 指出，该国在未来五 4 国际宏观资讯周报 年内需要价值 1230 亿美元的总融资，预计巴基斯坦将在 2024-25 财年 寻求 210 亿美元，在 2025-26 财年寻求 230 亿美元。 差快报 7、孟加拉国提高关键政策利率以应对通货膨胀 5 月 8 日，孟加拉国央行将其关键利率上调了半个百分点至 8.5%， 这是 ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 行业展 望 中国财产险行业 2024年5月 中国财产险行业展望 2023 年，“车险综合改革”进一步深入，新能源车险发展逐步规 目录 范，健康险、农险、责任险等非车险业务贡献度不断提升，但财 产险行业保费增速放缓，承保盈利下滑；同时监管持续深化改革， 摘要 1 进一步引导行业支持实体经济发展，但受利率下行和资本市场震 监管环境 2 荡影响，投资端表现不佳。偿付能力监管标准优化后，财产险行 业务运营 4 业偿付能力有所提升，目前处于较充足水平，但个别中小公司仍 财务状况 9 面临一定流动性风险。财产险行业展望维持稳定，未来仍需关注 外部支持 16 保费增速承压、承保利润和投资收益波动加剧以及投资资产相关 附表 17 风险释放等因素对行业信用水平的影响。 维持中国财产险行业展望为稳定。该展望反映了中诚信国际对该行业未 联络人 来12~18个月基本信用状况的预测。 作者 摘要 金融机构部  “车险综合改革”进一步深入，新能源车险业务逐步规范；多项政策 张 璐 010-66428877-432 指导非车险业务开展，引导财产险行业理性竞争，实现高质量发展； lzhang@c ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 资讯一览 ttzhang@ccxi.com.cn 南非正式推出混合动力太阳能发电厂 伊朗正在全球超过 20 个国家实施大型水电项目 美日利差加大、特别是近期美联储降息预期落空叠加日本议息会 议的偏鸽态度致使近期日元急速贬值。在加息预期减弱下，日元或将 继续贬值，而通胀走势仍将是影响央行政策转变的关键信号。未来一 段时间内仍需高度关注日本央行的货币政策变化及对外汇的干预事态 等。日元大幅贬值将明显提升日本进口商品价格，并对服务业产生明 显冲击。由于冲击具有一定的滞后效应，因此尽管当前进口通胀不如 预期显著，但预计将在后续的 CPI 中有所体现。在经历长达 30 年的通 缩后，日本当局希望日本通胀更具有持续性和稳定性。若日后日本核 心消费者价格指数明显受到日元贬值的影响，即日元贬值对日本经济 及物价产生难以忽视的影响，则加息的紧迫性将提升，亦将成为日本 央行扭转货币政策的明显信号。日本央行或将采取减少长期国债购入 规模、加息等措施加强鹰派立场。而若日本 压低购买日本国债的规模， 则短期内日本国债收益率或将明显上升。由于日本具有庞大的债务规 模，在债券发行利率上升后，必将削弱日本的债 ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 特别评论 保险行业研究 2024年5月 “率费双降” ——监管积极引导人身险行业压实负债质量 联络人 作者 金融机构部 邓 婕 010-66428877 事件 jdeng@ccxi.com.cn 陶美娟 010-66428877 2023 年以来，在增额终身寿险产品爆发式增长、资本市场震荡及 mjtao@ccxi.com.cn 行业竞争加剧背景下，人身险行业利差损、费差损风险不断积聚。为压 降行业经营风险，夯实负债质量，监管多次发文及窗口指导要求人身险 其他联络人 公司下调产品预定利率及结算利率，并开始在银保渠道严格执行“报行 金融机构评级总监 吕寒 010-66428877 合一”政策。人身险公司积极响应监管要求，陆续调整产品利率设计及 hlv@ccxi.com.cn 渠道费率，实现保险产品“率费双降”。 中诚信国际行业评论 “率”走在前——引导人身险公司下调产品预定利率，加强资产负债联动管理，防范 行业长期利差损风险。 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The outlook for the Chinese life insurance industry is maintained as stable, reflecting the expectation of stable credit conditions over the next 12-18 months [1] Core Views - The life insurance industry experienced rapid premium growth in 2023, driven by the popularity of increasing whole life insurance products [1] - The industry faces challenges such as weak recovery in the agent channel, regulatory adjustments in the bancassurance channel, and pressure on profitability due to declining interest rates and poor investment performance [1] - The industry's solvency remains adequate, but the ability to replenish capital internally continues to decline [1] - With macroeconomic recovery and increasing demand for health, pension, and wealth management products, the life insurance industry is expected to maintain growth momentum [1] Regulatory Environment - The establishment of the National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA) in 2023 has reshaped the financial regulatory landscape, enhancing systemic risk prevention and regulatory efficiency [2] - The NFRA has introduced stricter regulations, including the "Systemically Important Insurance Companies Assessment Measures" and the "Interim Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Pension Insurance Companies," to strengthen oversight and promote stable industry operations [2] - The "Regulatory Rating Measures for Life Insurance Companies" introduced in 2024 aim to classify life insurers based on risk levels and implement differentiated supervision to improve industry standards [3] Business Operations - In 2023, the life insurance industry achieved total premium income of 4.15 trillion yuan, a 9.33% increase year-on-year, driven by the strong sales of increasing whole life insurance products [8] - The industry's original premium income reached 3.54 trillion yuan, a 10.25% increase year-on-year, with the aging population and declining deposit rates creating significant demand for life insurance products [8] - The increasing whole life insurance segment saw a 12.76% growth in premium income, contributing 78.14% to the industry's total original premium income [10] - Health insurance premiums grew by 2.97% in 2023, while accident insurance premiums declined by 9.92% [12] Financial Analysis - The life insurance industry's profitability weakened in 2023 due to increased reserve provisions from declining interest rates and poor investment performance [19] - The industry's financial investment yield dropped to 2.29%, significantly lower than the 10-year average of 5.0% [20] - Listed life insurers reported a combined net profit of 2,054.87 billion yuan under the new accounting standards in the first three quarters of 2023, a 15.86% decline year-on-year [22] - Non-listed life insurers reported a combined net loss of 14.11 billion yuan in 2023, with 34 out of 59 companies experiencing losses [22] Asset Allocation and Investment - The life insurance industry maintained a diversified asset allocation strategy in 2023, with fixed-income instruments remaining the primary investment category [16] - Equity investments accounted for 12.59% of total assets, slightly lower than the previous year, due to market volatility [16] - The industry's investment assets reached 25.19 trillion yuan, with bond investments growing by 23.07% to 11.58 trillion yuan [16] - Regulatory policies have encouraged long-term capital investments in the stock market, with life insurers expected to increase their participation in the capital market [17] Capital and Solvency - The industry's comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio stood at 186.7% at the end of 2023, with the core solvency adequacy ratio at 110.5% [24] - External capital replenishment has become increasingly important, with 27 insurance companies approved for capital increases totaling 28.99 billion yuan in 2023 [25] - Capital replenishment bonds and perpetual capital bonds have emerged as key tools for life insurers to strengthen their capital base, with 16 companies issuing capital replenishment bonds totaling 76.4 billion yuan in 2023 [26] External Support - Large state-owned life insurers, foreign-funded insurers, and bank-affiliated insurers benefit from systemic and shareholder support, enhancing their stability and creditworthiness [27] - The "Systemically Important Insurance Companies Assessment Measures" introduced in 2023 aim to identify and regulate systemically important insurers, ensuring their stability during crises [27]

Economic Performance - In Q1 2024, GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9% and up 1.6% quarter-on-quarter[2][6][15] - The contribution of the secondary industry to GDP growth was 41.6%, with industrial production significantly accelerating, contributing 2 percentage points to GDP growth[6][15] - Final consumption expenditure contributed 73.7% to GDP growth, although this was a decrease of 6.3 percentage points compared to the previous quarter[6][15] Industrial and Investment Trends - Industrial added value increased by 6.1% year-on-year, with high-tech manufacturing growing by 7.5%[12][70] - Manufacturing investment rose by 9.9% year-on-year, driven by equipment updates and policy support, with specific sectors like general equipment manufacturing seeing growth rates of 13.9%[70][59] - Infrastructure investment grew by 8.8% year-on-year, continuing to provide a stabilizing effect on the economy[62][59] Market and Asset Allocation Insights - The bond market saw a decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching its lowest level since May 2002[23][3] - Stock market performance was mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell[23][3] - Commodity performance varied, with gold and oil prices showing significant increases, indicating a preference for safe-haven assets[23][3]

| --- | --- | |-----------------------|----------------------------------| | | | | CPI、PPI | 双双回落，通胀压力处于可控范围-- | | 12 月价格数据点评及 | 年展望,2022 年 1 | | | | | 12 日 | | | CPI、PPI | 双双回落，通胀压力处于可控范围-- | | 12 月价格数据点评及 | 年展望,2022 年 1 | www.ccxi.com.cn -30.00 -10.00 10.00 30.00 50.00 2022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-03 % 中国:工业企业:利润总额:累计同比 中国:工业企业:利润总额:当月同比 数据来源：Wind,中诚信国际 数据来源：Wind,中诚信国际 图 3：国有、私营企业利润均边际减弱 图 4：3 月中游利润占比大幅回升 -50 0 50 100 150 2021-072021-09202 ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 行业分析 保险资产管理行业研究 浙江省债权投资计划产品运行分析： 产品登记数量全国领先，区县级基投主体为 联络人 作者 产品运用主力 创新产品评级部 唐启元 010-66428877 qytang@ccxi.com.cn 国 徽 010-66428877 摘要 hguo@ccxi.com.cn 1. 2023 年，浙江省实现 GDP 为 8.26 万亿元，比上年增长 6.0%，经 济总量位居全国第四，同时人均 GDP 与人均可支配收入均位居全 国前列，综合经济实力较强，“富民强省”的地位持续巩固。 2021~2023 年，浙江省企业登记债权投资计划产品数量居全国第 三，产品运用情况国内领先，具体投向以基投行业为主，债项级别 主要为AAA级，且AA+级占比有所增加。 其他联络人 2. 浙江省内各地市经济发展水平呈现梯队序列，债权投资计划运用分 创新产品评级部评级总监 布情况与各地市经济发展程度、融资需求、债务结构相关，产品投 张凤华 010-66428877 向区域有所下沉，覆盖 19 个区县，且呈扩张趋势。其中，杭州、 fhzhang@ccxi.com.cn 宁波作 ...

市场跟踪 地方政府债与城投行业监测周报2022年第9期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范“处置风险的风险” 房地产行业 双轨制渐行渐近，关注配售型保障房 对商品房市场的冲击 作者 中诚信国际 企业评级部 ——2024年 4 月房地产市场跟踪 侯一甲 027-87339288 yjhou@ccxi.com.cn 行业热点 熊 攀 027-87339288 pxiong@ccxi.com.cn  配售型保障性住房对商品房市场影响：对保障房体系的完善健全可 充分满足核心城市的刚性住房需求，为核心城市的持续、稳定发展提供 曹文龙 027-87339288 wlcao@ccxi.com.cn 保障，同时配售型保障房的入市将推动我国房地产市场进入“双轨制” 阶段，长期而言对住房市场健康发展产生深远影响。另一方面，在当前 其他联络人 商品房市场容量不断萎缩的背景下，具有明显价格优势的配售型保障房 龚天璇 027-87339288 无疑是对周边存在库存压力的商品市场的二次加压，尤其是配售型保障 txgong@ccxi.com.cn 房供应节奏相对较快且供应区域临近中心城区的城市，短期内或将面临 全市商品房去库存难度升级的严 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Credit card installment ABS products have seen a total issuance of 46 units, amounting to CNY 394.5 billion from 2016 to 2023[3] - The issuance scale of credit card installment ABS products has significantly declined since 2020, with only 9 units issued totaling CNY 53.5 billion from 2020 to 2023[3] Group 2: Clearing and Settlement - As of the end of 2023, 43 out of 46 credit card installment ABS products have been cleared, resulting in a clearance ratio of 93.48%[10] - Among the cleared products, 40 were settled through repurchase, accounting for 93.02% of the cleared units[33] Group 3: Product Characteristics - The average expected term for the subordinate securities of cleared credit card installment ABS products is 28.16 months, while the average actual term is 15.72 months, indicating a ratio of 0.56[15] - The actual term of subordinate securities is closely related to the weighted average remaining term of the asset pool, especially for non-revolving purchase structures[16] Group 4: Yield and Investment Trends - The yield of subordinate securities is primarily concentrated below 20%, with only 2 products exceeding 30%[39] - The marketization level of credit card installment ABS products is high, with approximately 77% of subordinate securities being placed externally[26]