| --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 期货研究报告 | 预防式降息下美指弱势格局较难一直维持 | | 金融研究 | [Table_ ...

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目录 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款2 一、 内需走弱，信贷供给持续较低 大家可能非常关注猪周期。确实，由于前期产能收缩，生猪供给量受限，猪肉价格大幅上涨， 同比增速高达 18.1%，环比增速也上升到 11.4%。但其他畜肉类价格仍在下跌，且同比跌幅 较大。加之部分应季蔬果和水产品集中上市，鲜菜、薯类、鲜果和虾蟹类价格分别季节性下 降 7.3%、4.8%、3.8%和 2.4%，所以整体来看，食品端价格环比降幅较大。猪肉价格并不能 撑起整个食品端的 CPI，自然也撑不起整体 CPI。未来，尽管猪肉仍有可能上涨，但涨幅预 计受限。 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------- ...

Domestic Economic Outlook - Domestic consumption remains sluggish, with real estate still searching for a bottom, and infrastructure funding is ample but lacks projects[1] - The overall domestic economy is in a painful transition period, with severe industry differentiation and weak old drivers persisting[1] - Exports performed well in the first half of the year, and leading indicators suggest that this trend may continue until the end of the year[1] U.S. Economic Insights - The U.S. economy is expected to remain balanced, with no significant recession anticipated, despite some weakening indicators in Q2[23] - The unemployment rate has risen to 4% as of May, up 0.6 percentage points from its low of 3.4%[12] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has raised its fiscal deficit forecast for the year from $1.5 trillion to $1.9 trillion, with a deficit rate increase from 5.3% to 6.7%[15] Market Trends and Risks - The risk of the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates this year remains significant, influenced by economic performance and inflation expectations[30] - The bond market is expected to experience differentiation, with U.S. Treasury yields remaining high due to increased supply from fiscal deficits[59] - The RMB faces depreciation pressure, with the central bank's stance being crucial for its future trajectory[66] Export Performance - Export growth is primarily driven by an increase in export quantities, despite ongoing negative PPI impacts on prices[52] - The manufacturing cycle and inventory cycle will be key factors in the evolution of exports, with current global conditions supporting continued demand[48]

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Í in In -10.00 -5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 消费整体还成。环比来看，社零增速提升至 0.51%，较前 5 年均值（剔除 2020）高出 0.19 个百分点。只是这里也有一定 4 月基数低的效应在。同比来看，社零当月同比升至 3.72%， 较 4 月提升 1.47 个百分点。数值来看提升较多，但也有基数效应的问题，去年 4 月社零当 月同比增速为 18.41%，5 月则只有 12.69%。因此社零数据是提升了，但其中基数作用较为 关键。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款1 | --- | --- | |--------------------|-------| | | | | 降息落空 . | | | 国外制造业周期仍存 | | | | | | 总结 . | | 图 6: 美国制造业依然处于上升阶段 一、 降息落空 资料来源：Wind，信达期货研究所 资料来源：Wind，信达期货研究所 基建回落或与缺项目有关。2024 年 6 月份新闻发布会，国家发展改革委发言人表示，去年 增发 1 万亿国债项目加快建设，截至 5 月末项目开工率已超过 80%。而在 5 月的新 ...

免责声明 此报告所载的全部内容仅作参考之用。此报告的内容不构成对任何人的投资建议，且信达期货不会因接收人收到 此报告而视其为客户。 评级说明 【信达期货简介】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款9 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款1 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | 宏观情绪转弱 . | | | 部分经济体降息周期开启, 美国非农超预期………………………………………………………………………………………………… 5 | | | 总结 . | | 表 2: 5月非农及共分项. 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款2 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------ ...

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