Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Swing [1] - Cotton: Swing [1] Core View of the Report - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and plant number shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, which is prone to pests and diseases and requires early prevention and control. Internationally, the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere need to be continuously monitored [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton - growing areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will remain high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, exposing cotton to a high risk of heat damage. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties needs to be continuously monitored [1]. Summary based on Related Catalogs Data Overview 1. Foreign Market Quotes - US sugar (USD): On July 28, 2025, it was 16.43, and on July 29, 2025, it was 16.56, with a growth rate of 0.79% [3]. - US cotton (USD): On July 28, 2025, it was 68.3, and on July 29, 2025, it was 67.66, with a decline rate of - 0.94% [3]. 2. Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning): It remained at 6050.0 from July 28 to July 29, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.00% [3]. - Sugar (Kunming): It remained at 5915.0 from July 28 to July 29, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.00% [3]. - Cotton Index 328: On July 28, 2025, it was 3281, and on July 29, 2025, it was 3280, with a decline rate of - 0.19% [3]. - Cotton (Xinjiang): On July 28, 2025, it was 15400.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 15450.0, with a growth rate of 0.32% [3]. 3. Spread Overview - SR01 - 05: On July 28, 2025, it was 62.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 61.0, with a decline rate of - 1.61% [3]. - SR05 - 09: On July 28, 2025, it was - 205.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was - 197.0, with a decline rate of - 3.90% [3]. - SR09 - 01: On July 28, 2025, it was 143.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 136.0, with a decline rate of - 4.90% [3]. - CF01 - 05: On July 28, 2025, it was 65.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 60.0, with a decline rate of - 7.69% [3]. - CF05 - 09: On July 28, 2025, it was - 75.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 40.0, with a decline rate of - 153.33% [3]. - CF09 - 01: On July 28, 2025, it was 10.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was - 100.0, with a decline rate of - 1100.00% [3]. - Sugar 01 basis: On July 28, 2025, it was 213.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 184.0, with a decline rate of - 13.62% [3]. - Sugar 05 basis: On July 28, 2025, it was 275.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 245.0, with a decline rate of - 10.91% [3]. - Sugar 09 basis: On July 28, 2025, it was 70.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 48.0, with a decline rate of - 31.43% [3]. - Cotton 01 basis: On July 28, 2025, it was 1544.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 1555.0, with a growth rate of 0.71% [3]. - Cotton 05 basis: On July 28, 2025, it was 1609.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 1615.0, with a growth rate of 0.37% [3]. - Cotton 09 basis: On July 28, 2025, it was 1534.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 1655.0, with a growth rate of 7.89% [3]. 4. Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA: It remained at 78.7 from July 28 to July 29, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.00% [3]. 5. Profit Margins - Sugar import profit: It remained at 1600.5 from July 28 to July 29, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.00% [3]. 6. Options - SR509C5900: Implied volatility is 0.1005, and the futures underlying is SR509, with a historical volatility of 6.73 [3]. - SR509P5900: Implied volatility is 0.0997 [3]. - CF509C14000: Implied volatility is 0.1358, and the futures underlying is CF509, with a historical volatility of 8.71 [3]. - CF509P14000: Implied volatility is 0.1332 [3]. 7. Warehouse Receipts (sheets) - Sugar: On July 28, 2025, it was 20150.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 19746.0, with a decline rate of - 2.00% [3]. - Cotton: On July 28, 2025, it was 9226.0, and on July 29, 2025, it was 9156.0, with a decline rate of - 0.76% [3]. Company Information - Cinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is one of the large - scale, standardized, and high - reputation futures companies in China. It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for both coke and coking coal [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the Sino - US trade talks have made new progress, and the two sides have extended the tariff suspension period by 90 days. Due to previous policies falling short of expectations and over - hyped recent expectations, some long - position funds may take early profits. The market focuses on anti - involution in this meeting. If there is more incremental information, the anti - involution hype may continue. After the Dalian Commodity Exchange lowered the trading limit of coking coal on Friday, the coking coal market saw a sharp fall at night, with signs of long - position stampede. Short - term macro uncertainties increase, and the market is likely to experience significant volatility. If long - position investors leave the market on a large scale, coking coal may be weak in the future; if there is a stalemate between long and short positions and the market can oscillate at a high level, coking coal is still expected to reach new highs after the emotional release [4] - In terms of coking coal, the mine - end production recovery is slow, while downstream replenishment enthusiasm is high, and spot transactions remain at a high level. Mines' inventories are continuously transferred to downstream. Although steel mills' replenishment speed is slower than that of coke enterprises, it has slightly accelerated this week. For coke, the third and fourth rounds of spot price increases are expected to be quickly implemented next week, and the expectation of further price increases remains. Although blast furnace profits have slightly declined, they are still at a relatively high level, and coke demand remains resilient [5] - Based on the recent trends and positions of coking coal, from the 21st to the 22nd, the exit of short - position investors accelerated the market, and from the 23rd to the 25th, long - position investors further pushed up the market. It is possible that the long - position investors who entered the market after the 23rd are new short - term funds and are most likely to be stopped out. Currently, the price has basically returned to the gap area on the 23rd, erasing the gains from last Wednesday to Friday. Recently, the coal - coke market rebounded, and it is recommended to hold long positions in J09 and JM09 lightly and make further decisions after the outcome of the long - short tug - of war becomes clear [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Supply and Demand - Supply: The operating rate of 523 mines was reported at 86.9% (+0.83), and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was reported at 62.31% (-0.54) [2] - Demand: The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises was reported at 73.61% (+0.71) [2] 3.1.2 Inventory - Upstream inventory decreased: The clean coal inventory of 523 mines was reported at 2.7844 million tons (-606,300 tons), and the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants was 1.7561 million tons (-159,300 tons) [2] - Downstream inventory increased: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.9951 million tons (+84,100 tons), and the inventory of 230 coke enterprises was 8.4121 million tons (+510,200 tons). Port inventory was 2.9234 million tons (-291,600 tons) [2] 3.1.3 Spot Price and Spread - Spot price: Mongolian 5 coking coal was reported at 1,150 yuan/ton (-93 yuan), and the active contract was reported at 1,120.5 yuan/ton (+20 yuan) [2] - Basis: The basis was +49.5 yuan/ton (-113 yuan), and the September - January spread was -94 yuan/ton (-14.5 yuan) [2] 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Supply and Demand - Supply: The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises was reported at 73.61% (+0.71) [3] - Demand: The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was reported at 90.81% (-0.08), and the daily average pig iron output was 2.4223 million tons (-21,000 tons) [3] 3.2.2 Inventory - Upstream inventory decreased: The inventory of 230 coke enterprises was 501,200 tons (-54,300 tons) [3] - Downstream inventory increased: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.3998 million tons (+9,900 tons), and port inventory was 1.9813 million tons (-9,800 tons) [3] 3.2.3 Spot Price, Spread and Profit - Spot price: The quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was reported at 1,420 yuan/ton (+50 yuan), and the active contract was reported at 1,633 yuan/ton (+24.5 yuan) [3] - Basis: The basis was -106 yuan/ton (+29.26 yuan), and the September - January spread was -57.5 yuan/ton (-15.5 yuan) [3] - Profit: Although blast furnace profits have slightly declined, they are still at a relatively high level, and coke demand remains resilient [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar: Affected by consecutive droughts from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, which is prone to pests and diseases and requires early prevention. Internationally, the progress of sugar production in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere need to be continuously monitored [1] - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, exposing cotton to a high risk of heat damage. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties needs to be continuously monitored [1] Data Summary Price Data - **Outer - market Quotes**: From July 27 to 28, 2025, the price of US sugar increased by 0.92% from 16.28 to 16.43 US dollars, and the price of US cotton increased by 0.10% from 68.23 to 68.3 US dollars [3] - **Spot Prices**: From July 25 to 28, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning remained unchanged at 6050.0 yuan, the price of sugar in Kunming decreased by 0.08% from 5920.0 to 5915.0 yuan, the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.39% from 3281 to 3280, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 0.32% from 15450.0 to 15400.0 yuan [3] Spread Data - From July 27 to 28, 2025, most sugar and cotton spreads showed a downward trend, with the SR09 - 01 spread decreasing by 15.88% and the CF09 - 01 spread decreasing by 81.82%. However, the basis of sugar 09 and cotton 01, 05, 09 showed an upward trend, with the basis of sugar 09 increasing by 59.09% [3] Import and Profit Data - From July 25 to 28, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 79.2, and the import profit of sugar remained unchanged at 1641.5 [3] Option and Volatility Data - The implied volatility of SR509C5800 is 0.0868, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR509 is 6.89; the implied volatility of CF509C14000 is 0.1383, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF509 is 8.52 [3] Warehouse Receipt Data - From July 25 to 28, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 2.38% from 20642.0 to 20150.0, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.42% from 9265.0 to 9226.0 [3] Company Information - The report is produced by Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., a wholly - owned subsidiary of Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It is a large - scale and high - reputation futures company in China, with memberships in multiple exchanges and observer status in relevant associations [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is bullish, and for coking coal is also bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, macro uncertainties increase and market sentiment fluctuates greatly. Next week, the market is likely to experience significant volatility. If bulls exit en masse, coking coal may be weak in the coming period; if there is a stalemate between bulls and bears and the price can oscillate at a high level, coking coal is still expected to reach a new high after the sentiment is released [4] - For coking coal, the mine - end production resumes slowly, downstream replenishment enthusiasm is high, and spot transactions remain at a high level. Mines' inventory is continuously transferred to downstream. For coke, the fourth round of price increase is likely to be implemented soon, and there are still expectations for further price increases. The demand for coke remains resilient [3][4] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Spot and Futures - Spot is strong, futures decline. Mongolian 5 prime coking coal is reported at 1,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is reported at 1,100.5 yuan/ton (-158.5). The basis is +119.5 yuan/ton (+118.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -79.5 yuan/ton (-20) [1] 3.1.2 Supply and Demand - Both supply and demand increase slightly. The operating rate of 523 mines is reported at 86.9% (+0.83), the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 62.31% (-0.54), and the productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 73.61% (+0.71) [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream destocks, downstream restocks. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 278.44 million tons (-60.63), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 175.61 million tons (-15.93). The inventory of 247 steel mills is 799.51 million tons (+8.41), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 841.21 million tons (+51.02), and the port inventory is 292.34 million tons (-29.16) [2] 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Spot and Futures - Spot prices are expected to rise, futures decline. Tianjin Port's quasi - first - grade coke is reported at 1,370 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the fourth round of price increase is likely to be implemented soon. The active contract is reported at 1,763 yuan/ton (+28). The basis is -135 yuan/ton (+154.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -42 yuan/ton (+6) [3] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Demand remains high, supply increases slightly. The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 73.61% (+0.71). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 90.81% (-0.08), and the average daily pig iron output is 242.23 million tons (-0.21) [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream destocks, downstream restocks. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 50.12 million tons (-5.43), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 639.98 million tons (+0.99), and the port inventory is 198.13 million tons (-0.98) [3] 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - Hold J09 and JM09 long positions lightly this week and wait for the price to stabilize before re - entering the market [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, which is prone to pests and diseases and requires early prevention. Internationally, it is necessary to continue to monitor the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will remain high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics. Textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. 3. Summary According to the Data Directory 3.1 Outer Market Quotes - US sugar (in dollars): The price decreased from 16.57 on July 24, 2025, to 16.28 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 1.75% [3]. - US cotton (in dollars): The price decreased from 68.74 on July 24, 2025, to 68.23 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 0.74% [3]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning): The price remained at 6050.0 from July 24 to 25, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Sugar (Kunming): The price increased from 5910.0 on July 24, 2025, to 5920.0 on July 25, 2025, with an increase of 0.17% [3]. - Cotton Index 328: The price decreased from 3281 on July 24, 2025, to 3280 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 0.09% [3]. - Cotton (Xinjiang): The price increased from 15400.0 on July 24, 2025, to 15450.0 on July 25, 2025, with an increase of 0.32% [3]. 3.3 Spread Overview - SR01 - 05: The spread increased from 53.0 on July 24, 2025, to 63.0 on July 25, 2025, with an increase of 18.87% [3]. - SR05 - 09: The spread increased from - 251.0 on July 24, 2025, to - 233.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 7.17% [3]. - SR09 - 01: The spread decreased from 198.0 on July 24, 2025, to 170.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 14.14% [3]. - CF01 - 05: The spread remained at 75.0 from July 24 to 25, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3]. - CF05 - 09: The spread increased from - 170.0 on July 24, 2025, to - 130.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 23.53% [3]. - CF09 - 01: The spread decreased from 95.0 on July 24, 2025, to 55.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 42.11% [3]. - Sugar 01 basis: The basis decreased from 242.0 on July 24, 2025, to 214.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 11.57% [3]. - Sugar 05 basis: The basis decreased from 295.0 on July 24, 2025, to 277.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 6.10% [3]. - Sugar 09 basis: The basis remained at 44.0 from July 24 to 25, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Cotton 01 basis: The basis decreased from 1498.0 on July 24, 2025, to 1434.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 4.27% [3]. - Cotton 05 basis: The basis decreased from 1573.0 on July 24, 2025, to 1509.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 4.07% [3]. - Cotton 09 basis: The basis decreased from 1403.0 on July 24, 2025, to 1379.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 1.71% [3]. 3.4 Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA: The price increased from 78.7 on July 24, 2025, to 79.2 on July 25, 2025, with an increase of 0.64% [3]. 3.5 Profit Margins - Sugar import profit: The profit remained at 1582.0 from July 24 to 25, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3]. 3.6 Options - SR509C5900: Implied volatility is 0.1037, and the futures underlying is SR509 with a historical volatility of 6.95 [3]. - SR509P5900: Implied volatility is 0.1111 [3]. - CF509C14200: Implied volatility is 0.1531, and the futures underlying is CF509 with a historical volatility of 8.6 [3]. - CF509P14200: Implied volatility is 0.1511 [3]. 3.7 Warehouse Receipts (in pieces) - Sugar: The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 20940.0 on July 24, 2025, to 20642.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 1.42% [3]. - Cotton: The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 9337.0 on July 24, 2025, to 9265.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 0.77% [3]. 4. Company Information - The report is from Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has various memberships in multiple futures exchanges and is an observer of relevant associations [8].

情绪退潮，焦炭四轮提涨有望落地，多单减仓 -------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——看涨 焦煤——看涨 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 报告内容摘要: 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 28 日 [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 1. 大商所发布，经研究决定，自 2025 年 7 月 29 日交易时（即 7 月 28 日夜盘交易小 节时）起，非期货公司会员或者客户在焦煤期货 JM2509 合约上单日开仓量不得超 过 500 手，在焦煤期货其他合约上单日开仓量不得超过 2,000 手。 焦煤： 现货上调，期货偏强。蒙 5#主焦煤报 1200 元/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Wind Commodity Index rose 1.37%. Different sub - indexes showed various trends, with the Wind Coal - Coking - Steel - Ore Index surging 11.3% and the Wind Non - metallic Building Materials Index soaring 19.41%, while the Wind Agricultural and Sideline Products Index dropped 3.22% [4]. - Most commodity varieties rose this week. For example, the coking coal index soared 36.04%, and the glass index jumped 25.51%, while the container shipping European line index tumbled 6.98% [7]. - From the perspective of positions, the total commodity positions decreased slightly this week. Some varieties like stainless steel, Shanghai tin, and live pigs had a relatively high increase in positions. Currently, the position percentiles of coking coal, hot - rolled coil, and soybean meal are above 90% [8]. - In terms of volatility, the volatility percentiles of glass and industrial silicon are above 90%, while those of many other varieties are below 10% [8]. - Regarding the basis, some futures like red dates and polyethylene have a large discount, while glass and manganese silicon have a large premium [8]. - The market is in the stage of incremental capital entry. Capital inflows are prominent in coking coal, lithium carbonate, etc., indicating increased short - term divergence. Capital outflows are significant in iron ore, soda ash, etc., suggesting reduced short - term divergence [9]. - The net positions of some varieties are consistently long, indicating a long - term bullish view; some are consistently short, indicating a long - term bearish view. Some varieties' net position changes turn long or short, reflecting short - term views [10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plate and Variety Price Changes - **Plate Changes**: The Wind Commodity Index rose 1.37%, the Wind Precious Metals Index rose 0.76%, the Wind Non - ferrous Metals Index fell 1.77%, the Wind Coal - Coking - Steel - Ore Index soared 11.3%, the Wind Energy Index fell 0.3%, the Wind Chemical Index soared 7.14%, the Wind Non - metallic Building Materials Index soared 19.41%, the Wind Oilseeds and Oils Index fell 1.51%, the Wind Soft Commodities Index rose 0.7%, the Wind Grains Index fell 0.55%, and the Wind Agricultural and Sideline Products Index fell 3.22% [4]. - **Variety Changes**: Most varieties rose. Coking coal, glass, soda ash, polysilicon, and coke indexes had significant increases, while the container shipping European line index, rapeseed meal index, etc. declined [7]. 3.2 Strategy Signals - Different varieties have different operation suggestions based on factors such as volatility percentile, position percentile, and technical analysis. For example, for precious metals, Shanghai silver suggests holding long positions, and Shanghai gold suggests waiting and seeing. Many varieties in different sectors like non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products also have corresponding long - holding, short - holding, or waiting - and - seeing suggestions [8]. 3.3 Capital Tracking - **Precipitated Capital**: Varieties with more precipitated capital include Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, Shanghai copper, soybean meal, and iron ore, indicating greater long - term market interest. Those with less precipitated capital include early indica rice, japonica rice, etc., indicating lower long - term market interest [9]. - **Capital Flow**: Capital inflows are prominent in coking coal, lithium carbonate, Shanghai gold, etc., suggesting increased short - term divergence. Capital outflows are significant in iron ore, soda ash, etc., suggesting reduced short - term divergence [9]. 3.4 Member Positions - **Net Positions**: Some varieties have consistent long - term net long positions (e.g., Shanghai silver, Shanghai gold), and some have consistent long - term net short positions (e.g., glass, soda ash). - **Net Position Changes**: Some varieties' net position changes turn long (e.g., Shanghai gold, Shanghai aluminum), and some turn short (e.g., iron ore, coke), reflecting short - term market views [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for both coke and coking coal [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market is mainly influenced by domestic macro - policies. The release of the Politburo meeting announcement and the expiration of overseas tariff extension on August 12 are important time nodes. The supply - side policies of traditional industries are emerging, and the expectation of infrastructure driving economic growth is strengthened. The market sentiment is high, and it should be treated with a bullish mindset in the short term, but also beware of callback risks if the market accelerates [4] - For coking coal, the resumption of mining operations is less than expected, while downstream replenishment enthusiasm is high. The inventory is continuously transferred from mines to downstream. For coke, the second - round price increase has been implemented, and the third - round is expected to be implemented soon. The demand for coke is strong, and the overall supply - demand gap is widening [4] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The resumption of mining operations is less than expected. The operating rate of 523 mines is 86.07% (+0.55), and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is 62.31% (-0.54). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.61% (+0.71) [2] Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The refined coal inventory of 523 mines is 339.07 million tons (-38.11), the refined coal inventory of coal washing plants is 191.54 million tons (-5.53), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 791.1 million tons (+8.17), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 790.19 million tons (+37.75), and the port inventory is 321.5 million tons (-0.14) [2] Spot Price and Spread - The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1029 yuan/ton (+0), the active contract price is 1198.5 yuan/ton (+63), the basis is - 149.5 yuan/ton (-63), and the 9 - 1 monthly spread is - 66 yuan/ton (-6) [1] Coke Supply and Demand - The demand has increased more than expected, and the supply - demand gap has widened. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.61% (+0.71), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.89% (+0.99), and the daily average pig iron output is 242.44 million tons (+2.63) [3] Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 55.55 million tons (-4.03), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 638.99 million tons (+1.19), and the port inventory is 199.11 million tons (-0.97) [3] Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1320 yuan/ton (+0), the active contract price is 1735 yuan/ton (+27.5), the basis is - 316 yuan/ton (-27.5), and the 9 - 1 monthly spread is - 50.5 yuan/ton (-15). The second - round price increase has been implemented, and the third - round is expected to be implemented soon [3] Strategy Recommendations - In general, take a bullish approach in the short term, but beware of callback risks if the market accelerates. For coking coal, the resumption of mining operations is less than expected, and downstream replenishment is active. For coke, the second - round price increase has been implemented, and the third - round is expected to be implemented soon. If steel prices continue to rise, the industrial chain profit is expected to be transmitted upstream [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for both coke and coking coal [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market is mainly influenced by domestic macro - policies. The release of the Politburo meeting notice and the expiration of overseas tariff extension on August 12 are important time points. In the short - term, a bullish approach is recommended, but beware of callback risks if the market accelerates [5] - For coking coal, mine production recovery is slow, while downstream replenishment enthusiasm is high. Inventory is shifting from mines to downstream. For coke, the first round of price increase has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further increases. The overall supply - demand of coke is tight, and if steel prices continue to rise, industrial chain profits may be transmitted upstream [6] - The news of the National Energy Administration's verification of coal mine over - production has heated up the market. The market sentiment is positive, and the monthly spread has started to go into positive arbitrage, indicating a reversal of industrial expectations [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices have increased, and futures are rising rapidly. Mongolian 5 prime coking coal is reported at 1029 yuan/ton (+0), and the active contract is reported at 1135.5 yuan/ton (+87). The basis is - 86.5 yuan/ton (-87), and the September - January spread is - 60 yuan/ton (+28.5) [2] 3.1.2 Supply - Mine production recovery is below expectations. The operating rate of 523 mines is reported at 86.07% (+0.55), and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 62.85% (+0.53) [2] 3.1.3 Demand - The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 72.9% (+0.18), showing flat demand [2] 3.1.4 Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 339.07 million tons (-38.11), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 191.54 million tons (-5.53), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 791.1 million tons (+8.17), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 790.19 million tons (+37.75), and the port inventory is 321.5 million tons (-0.14) [3] 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices have increased, and futures are rising rapidly. The quasi - first - grade coke in Tianjin Port is reported at 1320 yuan/ton (+50), and the active contract is reported at 1707.5 yuan/ton (+10). The basis is - 288 yuan/ton (+43.76), and the September - January spread is - 35.5 yuan/ton (+19) [4] 3.2.2 Supply - The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 72.9% (+0.18), and supply recovery is limited due to high raw material costs and delayed price increases [4][6] 3.2.3 Demand - Demand has increased more than expected, and the supply - demand gap has widened. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 90.89% (+0.99), and the daily average pig iron output is 242.44 million tons (+2.63) [4] 3.2.4 Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 55.55 million tons (-4.03), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 638.99 million tons (+1.19), and the port inventory is 199.11 million tons (-0.97) [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Sideways [1] - Cotton: Sideways [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi were unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, which may lead to pests and diseases and requires early prevention. Internationally, attention should continue to be paid to the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton - growing areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days earlier than in previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, attention should be paid to the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Data Overview 1. Foreign Market Quotes - US sugar (USD): On July 21, 2025, it was 16.36, and on July 22, 2025, it was 16.26, a decrease of 0.61% [3]. - US cotton (USD): On July 21, 2025, it was 68.09, and on July 22, 2025, it was 68.26, an increase of 0.25% [3]. 2. Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning): On July 21, 2025, it was 6060.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 6050.0, a decrease of 0.17% [3]. - Sugar (Kunming): On July 21, 2025, it was 5920.0, and on July 22, 2025, it remained 5920.0, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Cotton Index 328: On July 21, 2025, it was 3281, and on July 22, 2025, it was 3280, a decrease of 0.26% [3]. - Cotton (Xinjiang): On July 21, 2025, it was 15400.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 15500.0, an increase of 0.65% [3]. 3. Spread Overview - SR01 - 05: On July 21, 2025, it was 54.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 49.0, a decrease of 9.26% [3]. - SR05 - 09: On July 21, 2025, it was - 223.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was - 219.0, a decrease of 1.79% [3]. - SR09 - 01: On July 21, 2025, it was 169.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 170.0, an increase of 0.59% [3]. - CF01 - 05: On July 21, 2025, it was 45.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 40.0, a decrease of 11.11% [3]. - CF05 - 09: On July 21, 2025, it was - 240.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was - 235.0, a decrease of 2.08% [3]. - CF09 - 01: On July 21, 2025, it was 195.0, and on July 22, 2025, it remained 195.0, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Sugar 01 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 250.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 267.0, an increase of 6.80% [3]. - Sugar 05 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 304.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 316.0, an increase of 3.95% [3]. - Sugar 09 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 81.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 97.0, an increase of 19.75% [3]. - Cotton 01 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 1599.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 1519.0, a decrease of 5.00% [3]. - Cotton 05 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 1644.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 1559.0, a decrease of 5.17% [3]. - Cotton 09 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 1404.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 1324.0, a decrease of 5.70% [3]. 4. Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA: On July 21, 2025, it was 79.45, and on July 22, 2025, it was 78.65, a decrease of 1.01% [3]. 5. Profit Margins - Sugar import profit: On July 21, 2025, it was 1613.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 1630.0, an increase of 1.05% [3]. 6. Options - SR509C5800: Implied volatility is 0.0871, and the futures underlying is SR509, with a historical volatility of 7.03 [3]. - SR509P5800: Implied volatility is 0.0845 [3]. - CF509C14200: Implied volatility is 0.1357, and the futures underlying is CF509, with a historical volatility of 8.59 [3]. - CF509P14200: Implied volatility is 0.1357 [3]. 7. Warehouse Receipts (sheets) - Sugar: On July 21, 2025, it was 21437.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 21359.0, a decrease of 0.36% [3]. - Cotton: On July 21, 2025, it was 9501.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 9436.0, a decrease of 0.68% [3]. Company Information - Cinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is one of the large - scale, standardized and high - reputation futures companies in China. It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [8].