Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks during the summer vacation, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The cotton market is expected to see a phased recovery in demand during the traditional peak season, and the price has the potential to rise [1][2] - The strategy recommendation is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Nanning's spot sugar price is 5780 yuan, Kunming's is 5800 yuan, and Xinjiang's spot cotton price is 15150 yuan. The US sugar closed at 16.16, up 1.96%, and the US cotton closed at 66.61, up 0.54% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for cold drinks in summer, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and imports have increased significantly. Cotton: In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was at a high risk of heat damage. The commercial cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is coming, providing bottom support for cotton prices [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 10022.0, down 2.84%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 3915.0, down 4.42% [1] Data Overview - **Outer - Market Quotes**: On September 23, 2025, the US sugar was at 16.16 (up 1.96% from September 22), and the US cotton was at 66.61 (up 0.54% from September 22) [3] - **Spot Prices**: On September 23, 2025, Nanning's sugar price was 5780 yuan (down 0.34% from September 22), Kunming's was 5800 yuan (down 0.34% from September 22), the cotton index 328 was 3280 (down 0.60% from September 22), and Xinjiang's cotton price was 15150 yuan (down 0.33% from September 22) [3] - **Spread Overview**: For example, SR01 - 05 spread was 33.0 on September 23, 2025 (up 65.00% from September 22), and CF01 - 05 spread was - 20.0 (up 300.00% from September 22) [3] - **Import Prices**: The cotton cotlookA price remained unchanged at 77.85 from September 22 to September 23, 2025 [3] - **Profit Margins**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1654.0 from September 22 to September 23, 2025 [3] - **Options**: For options such as SR601C5400, the implied volatility was 0.0848, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying SR601 was 6.21 [3] - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: On September 23, 2025, sugar warehouse receipts were 10022.0 (down 2.84% from September 22), and cotton warehouse receipts were 3915.0 (down 4.42% from September 22) [3] Conclusion - Sugar: The growth of sugarcane in southern production areas is generally good, but the sugar beet production in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia has been affected, delaying the sugar factory's start - up time. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating. Cotton: Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the ending inventory is expected to be reduced. The overall growth of cotton is better than last year, and the demand in the textile market is expected to recover during the peak season, driving up cotton prices [2]

[T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-09-23 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 资讯：南宁白糖现货价 5800.0 元，昆明白糖现货价 5820.0 元，新疆棉花 现货价 15200.0 元。 软商品日报 盘面：美白糖收 15.85，涨跌幅-2.04%。美棉花收 66.25，涨跌幅-0.08%。 棉花——震荡 商品研究 | 走势评级： | 白糖——震荡 | | --- | --- | | | 棉花——震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 受到供应前景压制，白糖短期震荡偏弱 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 供需： 白糖：受暑期冷饮需求带动，食糖消费季节性回暖。由于国内外价差扩大， 近期食糖进口增长明显。 棉花：8 月新疆和长江流域棉区气温偏高、降水偏少，棉花遭受高温热害风 险较高。当前棉花商业库存持续下降，同时棉纺织旺季即将到来， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core View of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The price of cotton has bottom - support as the commercial inventory is decreasing and the peak season for cotton textile is coming. The strategy recommendation is to mainly wait and see [1][3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5840.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5850.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15250.0 yuan [1] Disk - US sugar closed at 16.13, with a change of 4.00%. US cotton closed at 66.92, with a change of - 0.39% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for summer cold drinks, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widened price difference between domestic and foreign markets. Cotton: In August, the temperature in cotton - growing areas in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was high and precipitation was low, so cotton was at high risk of heat damage. Currently, the commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and as the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, the cotton price has bottom - support [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 10629.0, with a change of - 3.27%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 4438.0, with a change of - 3.84% [2] Conclusion - Sugar: The sugarcane growth in southern producing areas is generally good, but the sugar beet production in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is affected, which delays the sugar factory's start - up time. Brazil's sugar production progress has accelerated, and the market expects production to exceed consumption. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. Cotton: Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the expected ending inventory is revised down. The overall growth of cotton this season is better than last year. As the textile market enters the traditional peak season, cotton demand is expected to recover, and the price has the impetus to rise [3] Data Quick View - **Outer - market Quotes**: US sugar rose from 15.51 to 16.13, a 4.00% increase; US cotton fell from 67.18 to 66.92, a - 0.39% decrease [4] - **Spot Prices**: Nanning sugar spot price decreased from 5870.0 to 5840.0, a - 0.51% decrease; Kunming sugar spot price decreased from 5860.0 to 5850.0, a - 0.17% decrease; cotton index 328 increased from 3281 to 3280, a 0.06% increase; Xinjiang cotton spot price increased from 15200.0 to 15250.0, a 0.33% increase [4] - **Spread Quick View**: SR01 - 05 decreased by - 5.26%, SR05 - 09 increased by 100.00%, SR09 - 01 decreased by - 100.00%, CF01 - 05 remained unchanged, CF05 - 09 increased by 20.00%, CF09 - 01 increased by 27.27%. Sugar and cotton basis for different contracts also had corresponding changes [4] - **Import Prices**: Cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 79.1 [4] - **Profit Margins**: Sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1587.5 [4] - **Options**: The implied volatility and historical volatility of different sugar and cotton option contracts are given [4] - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: Sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 10988.0 to 10629.0, a - 3.27% decrease; cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 4615.0 to 4438.0, a - 3.84% decrease [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oscillation; Mid - short - term: Bullish [1] Core Viewpoints - Recent market fluctuations are mainly due to increased divergence between long and short sides after the market's fear of high prices. Since September, the market has adjusted slightly with daily trading volume above 2 trillion, indicating strong capital entry willingness. The current callback has no systemic risk, and a sharp decline can be an opportunity to add long positions. The IM contract's widened discount last week reflects cautious sentiment in the derivatives market. Short - term, the market will be in a wide - range oscillation. The market index is supported around the 20 - day moving average, and it's advisable to conduct high - selling and low - buying operations on IC and IF contracts within the "20 - day moving average support - previous high pressure" range. The Fed's 25bp interest rate cut may suppress the stock index sentiment. Mid - term, long positions can be arranged when the index adjusts to around the early - August level [3] Summary by Related Contents Macro Stock Market Information - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut this year and the restart after 9 months. China's State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce policies to expand service consumption, including selecting about 50 pilot cities, issuing policy documents, promoting AI application, and enhancing capital supply in the consumption field [5] Stock Index盘面 Review - In the previous trading day, A - shares oscillated upwards. The Shanghai 50 Index rose 0.17%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.61%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.96%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.95%. The diversified finance and motorcycle sectors led the rise, while precious metals and agriculture sectors lagged. Over 2,500 stocks rose, and 80 stocks hit the daily limit, with a poor profit - making effect. The daily - line shows high - level divergence and weakening upward momentum, while the weekly and monthly lines maintain an upward trend. The trading volume of A - shares remained flat at around 2.4 trillion, with a cooling trading enthusiasm but still at a historical high, indicating high capital entry willingness [5] Core Logic Summary - The recent market is not affected by additional events. The market fluctuates due to increased divergence between long and short sides after the market's fear of high prices. Since September, the market has adjusted slightly with daily trading volume above 2 trillion, indicating strong capital entry willingness. The current callback has no systemic risk, and a sharp decline can be an opportunity to add long positions. The IM contract's widened discount last week reflects cautious sentiment in the derivatives market. Short - term, the market will be in a wide - range oscillation. The market index is supported around the 20 - day moving average, and it's advisable to conduct high - selling and low - buying operations on IC and IF contracts within the "20 - day moving average support - previous high pressure" range. The Fed's 25bp interest rate cut may suppress the stock index sentiment. Mid - term, long positions can be arranged when the index adjusts to around the early - August level [3] Operation Suggestions - In futures operations, the short - term market is in a wide - range oscillation. Short - term traders can conduct high - selling and low - buying according to the above - mentioned range, and trend long positions should wait for further adjustment. The long IF and short IM portfolio can be appropriately liquidated for profit. In options operations, the implied volatility of stock index options rose yesterday, with the average IV of the CSI 300 current - month options at around 23%. It's okay to hold the current - month double - selling options until expiration, but attention should be paid to margin fluctuations [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to summer cold drink demand, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The overall growth of sugarcane in southern producing areas is good, but the beet harvest in some areas has been affected, delaying the sugar mill start - up time. [1][3] - In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was at high risk of heat damage. The current commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textiles, the cotton price has bottom - support. The import of cotton is lower than expected, and the new - season cotton has generally grown better than last year. The cotton demand is expected to recover seasonally during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the price has the motivation to rise. [1][3] Summary According to Related Contents Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5870.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5860.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15200.0 yuan. [1] Futures Market - U.S. sugar closed at 15.51, with a change of - 2.33%. U.S. cotton closed at 67.18, with a change of - 0.72%. [1] - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 10988.0, with a change of - 2.48%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 4615.0, with a change of - 3.03%. [2] Data Comparison | Category | Item | 2025 - 09 - 16 | 2025 - 09 - 17 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Outer - market Quotes | U.S. sugar (USD) | 15.88 | 15.51 | - 2.33% | | | U.S. cotton (USD) | 67.67 | 67.18 | - 0.72% | | Spot Prices | Sugar (Nanning) | 5890.0 | 5870.0 | - 0.34% | | | Sugar (Kunming) | 5865.0 | 5860.0 | - 0.09% | | | Cotton Index 328 | 3281 | 3280 | 0.07% | | | Cotton (Xinjiang) | 15150.0 | 15200.0 | 0.33% | | Spread Overview | SR01 - 05 | 23.0 | 19.0 | - 17.39% | | | SR05 - 09 | - 6.0 | - 9.0 | 50.00% | | | SR09 - 01 | - 17.0 | - 10.0 | - 41.18% | | | CF01 - 05 | 35.0 | 40.0 | 14.29% | | | CF05 - 09 | - 155.0 | - 150.0 | - 3.23% | | | CF09 - 01 | 120.0 | 110.0 | - 8.33% | | | Sugar 01 basis | 318.0 | 331.0 | 4.09% | | | Sugar 05 basis | 341.0 | 350.0 | 2.64% | | | Sugar 09 basis | 335.0 | 341.0 | 1.79% | | | Cotton 01 basis | 1405.0 | 1420.0 | 1.07% | | | Cotton 05 basis | 1440.0 | 1460.0 | 1.39% | | | Cotton 09 basis | 1285.0 | 1310.0 | 1.95% | | Import Prices | Cotton cotlookA | 78.1 | 78.1 | 0.00% | | Profit Margins | Sugar import profit | 1587.5 | 1587.5 | 0.00% | | Options | SR601C5500 | 0.0875 | SR601 | 6.13 | | | SR601P5500 | 0.0855 | | | | | CF601C13800 | 0.1156 | CF601 | 6.82 | | | CF601P13800 | 0.1124 | | | | Inventory Warehouse Receipts (sheets) | Sugar | 11268.0 | 10988.0 | - 2.48% | | | Cotton | 4759.0 | 4615.0 | - 3.03% | [4] Strategy Suggestion - Mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given documents. 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the soft commodities market, specifically sugar and cotton. The market is currently paying attention to weather conditions, and cotton is expected to experience short - term fluctuations. The consumption of sugar has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and the import of sugar has increased significantly recently. Cotton is at risk of high - temperature heat damage in some areas, but the decreasing commercial inventory and the upcoming cotton textile peak season provide some support for cotton prices. The recommended strategy is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Data Overview - **External Quotes**: On September 10, 2025, the price of US sugar was 15.89 US dollars, with a daily increase of 0.32%, and the price of US cotton was 66.72 US dollars, with a daily increase of 0.50% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: On September 10, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5880.0 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of sugar in Kunming was 5835.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.26%. The price of the cotton index 328 was 3280, with a daily decrease of 0.32%, and the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang was 15250.0 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.33% [3]. - **Spread Overview**: The spreads of sugar and cotton futures contracts showed different degrees of changes. For example, the SR01 - 05 spread increased by 33.33%, and the CF01 - 05 spread decreased by 22.22% [3]. - **Import Prices**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 77.65 on September 10, 2025 [3]. - **Profit Margin**: The import profit of sugar remained unchanged at 1614.0 on September 10, 2025 [3]. - **Options**: The implied volatilities of sugar and cotton option contracts SR601C5500, SR601P5500, CF601C13800, and CF601P13800 were 0.0855, 0.0816, 0.1278, and 0.115 respectively [3]. - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: On September 10, 2025, the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 11772.0, with a daily decrease of 1.71%, and the number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 5322.0, with a daily decrease of 2.51% [1][3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Sugar**: The consumption of sugar has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks. The import of sugar has increased significantly recently due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets, but the total annual import volume is still expected to be within the expected range. Since July, extreme rainfall in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia has affected local sugarcane and sugar beet crops, and the potential impact on sugar production needs continuous monitoring [1][2]. - **Cotton**: Most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening and flocculation stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin is at high risk of high - temperature heat damage. The commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and the upcoming cotton textile peak season provides some support for cotton prices [1][2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar demand has a seasonal increase due to summer cold - drink consumption, and recent sugar imports have risen significantly driven by the expanding domestic - foreign price gap, with the annual import volume expected to stay within the forecast range. However, extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may affect sugar production [1][3]. - Most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some parts of Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening and flocculation stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin faces a high risk of heat damage. Currently, cotton commercial inventories are decreasing, and the cotton textile peak season is approaching, providing support for cotton prices [1][3]. - The recommended strategy is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Information and Quotes - Nanning sugar spot price is 5,880 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5,830 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15,350 yuan [1]. - U.S. sugar closed at 15.64 with a change of 0.39%, and U.S. cotton closed at 66.28 with a change of 0.29% [1]. Supply and Demand - Sugar: Summer cold - drink demand drives a seasonal recovery in sugar consumption, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the expanding domestic - foreign price gap [1]. - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increase the risk of heat damage to cotton. Current cotton commercial inventories are decreasing, and the cotton textile peak season is approaching, providing a bottom - support for cotton prices [1]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 12,102.0, with a change of - 3.00%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 5,571.0, with a change of - 2.43% [2]. Data Overview - **External Quotes**: From September 7th to 8th, 2025, U.S. sugar rose from 15.58 to 15.64 (0.39%), and U.S. cotton rose from 66.09 to 66.28 (0.29%) [4]. - **Spot Prices**: From September 5th to 8th, 2025, Nanning sugar remained at 5,880 yuan (0.00% change), Kunming sugar dropped from 5,835.0 to 5,830.0 (- 0.09%), the cotton index 328 dropped from 3,281 to 3,280 (- 0.16%), and Xinjiang cotton remained at 15,350 yuan (0.00% change) [4]. - **Price Spread Overview**: There were various changes in sugar and cotton price spreads from September 7th to 8th, 2025, such as SR01 - 05 rising 28.57% and CF01 - 05 dropping 25.00% [4]. - **Import Prices**: The cotton cotlookA remained at 77.6 from September 5th to 8th, 2025 (0.00% change) [4]. - **Profit Margins**: The sugar import profit remained at 1,672.5 from September 5th to 8th, 2025 (0.00% change) [4]. - **Options**: The implied volatilities of SR601C5500, SR601P5500, CF601C13800, and CF601P13800 are 0.0838, 0.0825, 0.1121, and 0.1091 respectively [4]. - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: From September 5th to 8th, 2025, sugar warehouse receipts dropped from 12,476.0 to 12,102.0 (- 3.00%), and cotton warehouse receipts dropped from 5,710.0 to 5,571.0 (- 2.43%) [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks. Recent sugar imports have increased significantly driven by the expanding price difference between domestic and international markets, but the total annual imports are still expected to be within the projected range. Extreme rainfall in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may potentially impact sugar production, which requires continuous monitoring [1][3]. - Most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening and flocculation stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin faces a high risk of heat damage due to high temperatures and insufficient precipitation. Currently, commercial cotton inventories are continuously decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, cotton prices are supported [1][3]. - The recommended strategy is to mainly wait and observe [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5,880.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5,835.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15,350.0 yuan [1]. 3.2 Market Quotes - U.S. sugar closed at 15.58 with a change of 0.00%. U.S. cotton closed at 66.09 with a change of 0.00% [1]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by summer cold - drink demand, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the expanding price difference [1]. - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increase the risk of heat damage to cotton. Current commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and with the approaching peak season for cotton textile, cotton prices have bottom - end support [1]. 3.4 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 12,476.0, a decrease of 2.16%. Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 5,710.0, a decrease of 2.04% [2]. 3.5 Data Quick View - **External Market Quotes**: U.S. sugar remained at 15.58 from September 6th to 7th, 2025, with a change of 0.00%. U.S. cotton remained at 66.09 during the same period, with a change of 0.00% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: From September 4th to 5th, 2025, Nanning sugar spot price remained at 5,880.0 yuan with a change of 0.00%, Kunming sugar spot price dropped from 5,845.0 to 5,835.0 yuan, a decrease of 0.17%, cotton index 328 dropped from 3,281 to 3,280, a decrease of 0.03%, and Xinjiang cotton spot price remained at 15,350.0 yuan with a change of 0.00% [4]. - **Price Difference Quick View**: All price differences and basis for sugar and cotton remained unchanged from September 6th to 7th, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4]. - **Import Prices**: From September 4th to 5th, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA increased from 77.5 to 77.6, an increase of 0.13% [4]. - **Profit Margins**: Sugar import profit remained at 1,646.5 from September 4th to 5th, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4]. - **Options**: The implied volatilities of SR601C5500, SR601P5500, CF601C14000, and CF601P14000 are 0.0843, 0.0815, 0.1099, and 0.1085 respectively, and the historical volatilities of SR601 and CF601 are 6.38 and 6.68 respectively [4]. - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: From September 4th to 5th, 2025, sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 12,752.0 to 12,476.0, a decrease of 2.16%, and cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 5,829.0 to 5,710.0, a decrease of 2.04% [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate as extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia may affect sugar production, while summer cold drink consumption boosts demand and sugar imports have increased significantly recently but are still expected to be within the annual forecast range [1][3] - Cotton prices are also expected to oscillate. Most cotton - growing areas are in the peak flowering period, with some in Xinjiang entering the boll - opening and flocculation stage. High - temperature heat damage risks are high in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August. With decreasing commercial inventories and the upcoming cotton textile peak season, cotton prices have bottom support [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5900.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5850.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15300.0 yuan [1] - U.S. sugar closed at 16.05, with a change of - 0.56%; U.S. cotton closed at 66.23, with a change of 0.27% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Summer cold drink demand drives seasonal recovery in sugar consumption, and sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening domestic - foreign price gap [1] - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increase the risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton. Current commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and the cotton textile peak season is approaching, providing bottom support for cotton prices [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 12782.0, with a change of - 3.18%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 5996.0, with a change of - 2.20% [2] Data Quick View Outer - Market Quotes - U.S. sugar decreased from 16.14 to 16.05, a change of - 0.56%; U.S. cotton increased from 66.05 to 66.23, a change of 0.27% [4] Spot Prices - Nanning and Kunming sugar spot prices remained unchanged; the cotton index 328 increased by 0.34%, and Xinjiang cotton decreased from 15400.0 to 15300.0, a change of - 0.65% [4] Spread Quick View - Various sugar and cotton spreads showed different degrees of change, such as SR01 - 05 decreasing by 23.08% and CF01 - 05 decreasing by 20.00% [4] Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA decreased from 77.95 to 77.5, a change of - 0.58% [4] Profit Margins - Sugar import profit increased from 1550.0 to 1570.0, a change of 1.29% [4] Options - Implied volatilities and historical volatilities of sugar and cotton options are provided, e.g., SR601C5600 has an implied volatility of 0.0882 and SR601 has a historical volatility of 6.33 [4] Inventory Warehouse Receipts - Sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 13202.0 to 12782.0, a change of - 3.18%; cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 6131.0 to 5996.0, a change of - 2.20% [4] Conclusions and Strategy Recommendations - Sugar: Extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may affect sugar production. Summer cold drink consumption drives seasonal growth in sugar demand, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently but the annual total is still expected to be within the forecast range [3] - Cotton: Most cotton - growing areas are in the peak flowering period, with some in Xinjiang entering the boll - opening and flocculation stage. High - temperature heat damage risks are high in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August. Current commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and the cotton textile peak season is approaching, so cotton prices are supported [3] - Strategy recommendation: It is advisable to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term trend: Oscillatory [1] - Medium - short - term trend: Bullish [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent spot sentiment is strong, especially in the startup and growth sectors, which have continuously reached new highs. Although the overall trend is bullish, short - term changes need attention. The market is rising amidst divergence, with an increased retracement amplitude. After the trading volume exceeded 3 trillion, there is a possibility of the index losing upward momentum after sufficient chip turnover. Derivatives have entered a defensive state, with the discount of stock index futures widening last week, especially for IC and IM, indicating a significant increase in cautious sentiment. The profit - making effect is limited due to significant sector differentiation. Considering factors such as the full release of domestic macro risks and the start of the overseas interest - rate cut cycle, the stock index is expected to continue rising in the medium - to - long term. Currently, the market lacks the conditions for a rapid bull market. [3] - In terms of futures operations, short - term long positions are advised to set stop - loss and take - profit points in a timely manner, and medium - to - long - term long positions should wait for further adjustments before entering. For options operations, the implied volatility of stock index options declined yesterday. Those who have entered double - selling positions are advised to take profits, and those holding until expiration need to be aware of potential margin fluctuations during the contract period. [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Stock Market Information - FTSE Russell announced changes to the quarterly review of the FTSE China A50 Index, including the inclusion of BeiGene - U, New Fiber Optic Network, WuXi AppTec, and Zhongji Innolight, and the removal of China National Nuclear Power, China Unicom, State Grid NARI, and Wanhua Chemical. [4] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 3.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 96.6%. In October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 1.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 46.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 51.6%. [4] Stock Index Disk Review Disk Tracking - In the previous trading day, the A - share market showed a divergent trend. Among the four major indices, the Shanghai 50 Index fell 1.07%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.68%, the CSI 500 Index fell 1.34%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.46%. In terms of sectors, precious metals (+1.61%) and electric power grids (+1.59%) led the gains, while aerospace and defense (-6.63%) and diversified finance (-3.66%) lagged. Only more than 800 stocks rose, and 41 stocks hit the daily limit, indicating a poor profit - making effect. [4] Technical Tracking - The daily - line chart shows high - level divergence, with signs of weakening upward momentum. In the long - term, the four major stock indices have broken through their 2023 highs, and the weekly and monthly lines maintain an upward trend, with the bullish signal continuing. [4] Capital Flow - The trading volume of A - shares declined yesterday, remaining in the range of 2.3 - 2.4 trillion throughout the day. Although it decreased compared to last week, the trading enthusiasm is still at a historical high, and the short - term chip turnover rate is relatively fast. [4]