Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "sideways" [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For sugar, extreme rainfall in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July has damaged local sugarcane and beets, and the potential impact on sugar production needs continuous monitoring. Summer cold - drink consumption drives seasonal growth in sugar demand. Recently, sugar imports have increased significantly due to the expanding domestic - foreign price gap, but the annual import volume is still expected to be within the forecast range [1] - For cotton, most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of blooming, and some parts of Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. According to the China Meteorological Administration, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin may face high - temperature heat damage in August. Currently, commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, which supports cotton prices [1] Group 3: Summary According to Data Tables 1. Price and Spread Data - **Foreign Market Quotes**: On August 13 - 14, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased from 16.83 dollars to 16.58 dollars, a decline of 1.49%, and the price of US cotton dropped from 67.7 dollars to 67.59 dollars, a decrease of 0.16% [3] - **Spot Prices**: From August 13 to 14, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning increased from 5970.0 to 5980.0, a rise of 0.17%, and in Kunming, it increased from 5855.0 to 5860.0, a rise of 0.09%. The cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a decline of 0.17%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged at 15050.0 [3] - **Spreads**: For sugar spreads such as SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, SR09 - 01, and for cotton spreads like CF01 - 05, CF05 - 09, CF09 - 01, most showed a downward trend from August 13 to 14, 2025. For example, SR01 - 05 decreased from 51.0 to 40.0, a decline of 21.57%, and CF01 - 05 decreased from 40.0 to 30.0, a decline of 25.00% [3] - **Basis**: For sugar basis (01, 05, 09) and cotton basis (01, 05, 09), the changes were mixed. For instance, the sugar 01 basis increased from 198.0 to 201.0, a rise of 1.52%, while the cotton 09 basis decreased from 1358.0 to 1339.0, a decline of 1.40% [3] 2. Other Data - **Import Price**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 79.95 from August 13 to 14, 2025 [3] - **Profit Space**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1454.0 from August 13 to 14, 2025 [3] - **Options**: The implied volatility of SR601C5700 is 0.0872, and its underlying futures is SR601 with a historical volatility of 6.26. The implied volatility of CF601C14200 is 0.1134, and its underlying futures is CF601 with a historical volatility of 5.6 [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: From August 13 to 14, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 17529.0 to 17284.0, a decline of 1.40%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 8006.0 to 7922.0, a decline of 1.05% [3] Group 4: Company Information - CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business, wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has memberships in multiple futures exchanges and is an observer of relevant industry associations [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways" rating for both sugar and cotton [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For sugar, extreme rainfall in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may affect sugarcane and beet crops, and continuous monitoring of its impact on sugar production is needed. Summer cold drink consumption drives seasonal growth in sugar demand. Recently, sugar imports have increased significantly due to the expanding domestic - foreign price gap, but the annual import volume is still expected to be within the forecast range [1] - For cotton, most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin faces the risk of heat damage. Currently, commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, providing some support for cotton prices [1] Group 3: Data Summary 1. Price and Spread Data - **Foreign Market Quotes**: From August 12 to 13, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 0.71% from 16.95 to 16.83 dollars, and the price of US cotton decreased by 1.08% from 68.44 to 67.7 dollars [3] - **Spot Prices**: From August 12 to 13, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning increased by 0.17% from 5960.0 to 5970.0, and in Kunming it increased by 0.69% from 5815.0 to 5855.0. The cotton index 328 decreased slightly by 0.07% from 3281 to 3280, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged at 15050.0 [3] - **Spreads**: There were significant changes in various sugar and cotton spreads from August 12 to 13, 2025. For example, SR01 - 05 increased by 8.51%, SR05 - 09 decreased by 20.00%, and CF01 - 05 decreased by 42.86% [3] 2. Other Data - **Import Prices**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 78.2 from August 12 to 13, 2025 [3] - **Profit Margins**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1515.0 from August 12 to 13, 2025 [3] - **Options**: The implied volatilities of SR601C5700, SR601P5700, CF601C14200, and CF601P14200 are 0.0894, 0.0914, 0.1116, and 0.1113 respectively [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: From August 12 to 13, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1.81% from 17853.0 to 17529.0, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 1.00% from 8087.0 to 8006.0 [3] Group 4: Company Information - CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business, wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has obtained the futures trading consulting business qualification and is a comprehensive settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, etc. [2][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the stock index has been rising hesitantly. Although the technical pressure has been increasing, the actual retracement is far less than expected, indicating that the short - term market sentiment remains strong. This week, this strong state is expected to continue, but to break through the current oscillatory pattern, new macro - level support is needed [3] - The rotation of sectors is still significant. Last week, the national defense and military industry concepts soared, while the anti - involution direction faded. In the pre - emptive market without performance realization, investors need to pay attention to the previous high pressure [3] - In August, the positive factors are expected to be limited, including the policy vacuum period after the Politburo meeting and the risk of downward revision of expectations due to the intensive release of corporate semi - annual reports. The general upward trend of the stock index is the market's main theme, but in the short term, the safety cushion for unilateral long positions has shrunk, and there is an expected phased retracement in August. It is recommended to take short - term long positions intraday, and subsequent sharp drops are opportunities to re - enter the market for long positions [3] 3. Summary of Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Stock Market Information - Sino - US issued the "Joint Statement of the Sino - US Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks". The US promised to continue adjusting the measures of imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, and both sides continued to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days starting from August 12 [4] - Three departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", clarifying that from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026, eligible personal consumption loans can enjoy fiscal interest subsidies [4] 3.2 Stock Index盘面 Review - **Market Tracking**: In the previous trading day, the A - share market oscillated upwards. Among the four major indices, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 0.61%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.52%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.41%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.28%. In terms of sectors, motorcycles (+3.32%) and computer hardware (+2.18%) led the gains, while aerospace and military industry (-1.26%) and chemical fiber industry (-1.18%) lagged. More than 2,000 stocks rose, and 60 stocks hit the daily limit, with a relatively poor profit - making effect [4] - **Technical Tracking**: The daily and weekly lines maintain an upward trend, while the monthly line remains in an oscillatory market. Among different varieties, the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have performed strongly in recent days, while the Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 show signs of marginal weakening [4] - **Fund Flow**: The trading volume of the A - share market slightly increased to 1.9 trillion yuan, indicating a moderately positive trading sentiment [4] 3.3 Core Logic Summary - **Futures Operation**: The short - term sentiment is strong, but the safety cushion for long positions has shrunk. It is recommended to take short - term long positions intraday or wait and see. For the IH - IM spread, a left - hand layout can be made in advance [3] - **Options Operation**: The implied volatility of stock index options has flattened, with the at - the - money IV of the CSI 300 in the current month fluctuating between 12 - 13%. During the narrow - range oscillation period, the cost - effectiveness of participating in options is not high. It is recommended to wait and see for the second wave of enhanced volatility [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Report's Core View - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall recently in the Inner Mongolia production area, making it prone to pests and diseases, which require early prevention. Internationally, it is necessary to continue to monitor the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will remain high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. Data Summary Price Data - **External Market Quotes**: On August 11 - 12, 2025, the price of US sugar was $16.54, with a 0.00% change; the price of US cotton was $66.84, with a 0.00% change [3]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning remained at 5960.0, with a 0.00% change; the price of sugar in Kunming decreased from 5825.0 to 5815.0, a - 0.17% change; the cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a - 0.11% change; the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained at 15050.0, with a 0.00% change [3]. Spread Data - **Sugar Spreads**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, SR01 - 05 increased by 11.90%, SR05 - 09 increased by - 1.36%, and SR09 - 01 decreased by - 6.67% [3]. - **Cotton Spreads**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, CF01 - 05 increased by 40.00%, CF05 - 09 increased by 16.67%, and CF09 - 01 increased by 22.50% [3]. Basis Data - **Sugar Basis**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, the basis of sugar 01 decreased by - 17.86%, the basis of sugar 05 decreased by - 13.61%, and the basis of sugar 09 decreased by - 25.85% [3]. - **Cotton Basis**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, the basis of cotton 01 decreased by - 6.56%, the basis of cotton 05 decreased by - 4.81%, and the basis of cotton 09 decreased by - 2.63% [3]. Import Price and Profit Data - **Import Price**: On August 11 - 12, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA was 78.0, with a 0.00% change [3]. - **Profit Space**: On August 11 - 12, 2025, the sugar import profit was 1515.0, with a 0.00% change [3]. Option and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Options**: For options such as SR601C5600, SR601P5600, CF601C14000, and CF601P14000, the implied volatility and relevant futures contract information are provided [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by - 2.12%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by - 1.04% [3]. Company Information - The report is produced by Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., which is a limited liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has various memberships in multiple futures exchanges [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar is affected by consecutive droughts from autumn to spring, with unfavorable emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi. Beet growth is generally good, but there is a risk of pests and diseases in Inner Mongolia due to excessive rainfall. Attention should be paid to Brazil's sugar production progress and Northern Hemisphere sugar crop growth [1]. - Most cotton - growing areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with growth 4 - 7 days ahead of previous years. High - temperature in Xinjiang in July poses a heat - damage risk. Cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market is in a slack season, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Weather changes and tariff uncertainties need to be monitored [1]. Data Summary 1. Price Changes - **Foreign Market Quotes**: From August 10 to August 11, 2025, the price of US sugar increased by 1.66% from 16.27 to 16.54 dollars, and the price of US cotton increased by 0.30% from 66.64 to 66.84 dollars [3]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 8 to August 11, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning increased by 0.17% from 5950.0 to 5960.0, while the price in Kunming remained unchanged. The cotton index 328 decreased by 0.11% from 3281 to 3280, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 0.33% from 15100.0 to 15050.0 [3]. 2. Spread Changes - **Sugar Spread**: From August 10 to August 11, 2025, SR01 - 05 decreased by 2.33%, SR05 - 09 decreased by 2.00%, and SR09 - 01 decreased by 1.87% [3]. - **Cotton Spread**: CF05 - 09 increased by 36.36%, and CF09 - 01 increased by 25.00%, while CF01 - 05 remained unchanged [3]. 3. Basis Changes - **Sugar Basis**: From August 8 to August 11, 2025, the basis of sugar 01 remained unchanged, the basis of sugar 05 decreased by 0.34%, and the basis of sugar 09 increased by 1.38% [3]. - **Cotton Basis**: The basis of cotton 01 decreased by 7.04%, the basis of cotton 05 decreased by 6.79%, and the basis of cotton 09 decreased by 3.71% [3]. 4. Import Price and Profit - The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged from August 8 to August 11, 2025, and the sugar import profit also remained unchanged [3]. 5. Option Volatility - For SR601C5600, the implied volatility is 0.0856, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying SR601 is 5.86. For CF601C13600, the implied volatility is 0.107, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying CF601 is 5.03 [3]. 6. Warehouse Receipts - From August 8 to August 11, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1.64% from 18545.0 to 18240.0, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.97% from 8252.0 to 8172.0 [3] Company Information - Xinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business, wholly - owned by Xinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has multiple memberships and observer statuses in relevant institutions [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, China's exports exceeded expectations, but container throughput dropped sharply at the beginning of August, and if the trend continues, August may be a turning point [1][11]. - Although the month - on - month PPI growth rate rebounded in July, the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged. If commodity prices can hold up in August, the year - on - year PPI growth rate may rebound, but the rebound amplitude is expected to be limited [2][17]. - The real estate market continues to be sluggish, with new home sales area at a historical low and the second - hand housing market deteriorating [2][21]. - The bond market is in a volatile state this week. Looking forward, the bond market has investment value, and bond yields may break previous lows [3][35]. Summary by Directory 1. Domestic Economic Data Tracking (1) Export Exceeded Expectations - In July, China's export value was $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, far exceeding the Wind consensus forecast of 5.8% [11]. - Due to the "rush to export", the cumulative growth rate of export value has deviated from the annual average of the new export order index. Exports to the EU and ASEAN remained resilient, while those to the US continued to decline [11]. - Container throughput continued to rise in July but dropped sharply at the beginning of August. If the trend continues, August may be a turning point [1][11]. (2) Supply - side Reform Has Not Been Transmitted to PPI - In July, the year - on - year PPI remained at - 3.6%, the same as in June, due to the base effect. However, the month - on - month PPI growth rate rebounded by 0.2 percentage points compared to June [15][17]. - If commodity prices can hold up in August, the year - on - year PPI growth rate may rebound. However, the rebound amplitude is expected to be limited because the price increase in the upstream is difficult to be transmitted downstream, and overall demand needs to recover. Currently, only the mining and raw material sectors are showing price increases, accounting for about 25% [2][19]. 2. Real Estate Policy Effect Tracking - The Real Estate Market Continued to Perform Sluggishly - The sales area of new homes in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline seasonally, remaining lower than the same period in 2024. The sales area of new homes in first - and third - tier cities was lower than in 2024, while that in second - tier cities was basically the same as last year. All are hovering at historical lows [2][21]. - As of July 28, the listing price index of second - hand housing continued to decline overall. The listing price index in first - tier cities rebounded slightly, while those in second - and third - tier cities continued to fall [2][21]. 3. Treasury Bonds: Policy Disturbance Cooled Down, and the Bond Market Remained Volatile - The bond market was relatively stable this week. The central bank conducted a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan, sending a signal of explicit support [35]. - The upward trend brought by supply - side reform cooled down this week, and the impact on the bond market was not significant. Due to the unfalsifiable expectation of economic recovery brought by policy expectations, the bond market remained volatile [35]. - Looking forward, the overall view is bullish, with short - term volatility expected. The probability of interest rates continuing to decline is relatively high, and it will take time to test the policy effects [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Jiao Coal - Sideways [1] - Coke - Sideways [1] Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of tariffs has risen again. Although the extension of the suspension of Sino - US tariffs for another 90 days is likely to be implemented, there are still some variables. With the approaching delivery of the near - month contract, the market is expected to return to the fundamentals [4]. - For Jiao Coal, the mine - end production continues to decline, but the capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants has increased. The inventory transfer from upstream to downstream has slowed down. For Coke, the sixth round of spot price increase has started, and further price increases depend on whether downstream steel products can raise prices [4]. - From the perspective of steel profit distribution in the industrial chain, Jiao Coal is relatively overvalued compared to downstream steel products. In the short term, with the implementation of steel mill production restrictions in the north, the raw material trend may be weaker than that of steel products again. It is recommended to hold long positions in J01/JM01 lightly and beware of callback risks [5]. Summary by Directory Jiao Coal Supply and Demand - The operating rate of 523 mines is 83.89% (-2.42), and the capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants is 36.22% (+1.19). The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.75% (+0.27) [2]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is 245.66 million tons (-2.6), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 288.11 million tons (+2.1), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 808.66 million tons (+4.87), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 832.75 million tons (-11.31), and the port inventory is 277.34 million tons (-4.77) [2]. Spot Price and Spread - The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal is 1,150 yuan/ton (-0), the active contract is 1,227 yuan/ton (-2.5), the basis is -57 yuan/ton (+2.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -157.5 yuan/ton (-15) [1]. Coke Supply and Demand - The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.75% (+0.27), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.09% (-0.15), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.4032 million tons (-0.39) [3]. Inventory - The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 44.63 million tons (-1.89), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 619.28 million tons (-7.41), and the port inventory is 218.15 million tons (+3.05) [3]. Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1,470 yuan/ton (+0), the active contract is 1,653.5 yuan/ton (-14), the basis is -73 yuan/ton (+14), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -80.5 yuan/ton (-4). The sixth round of price increase has started [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Core View of the Report - Sugar: Affected by consecutive droughts in autumn, winter, and spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, making it prone to pests and diseases, which need to be prevented in advance. Internationally, attention should continue to be paid to the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, attention should be continuously paid to the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. Summary According to Data 1. Price and Spread - **Ex - market Quotes**: The prices of US sugar and US cotton remained unchanged from August 9th to 10th, 2025, with a 0.00% increase or decrease [3]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 7th to 8th, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning decreased by 0.34%, in Kunming by 0.09%, the cotton index 328 by 0.09%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged [3]. - **Price Spreads**: All price spreads and basis for sugar and cotton remained unchanged from August 9th to 10th, 2025, with a 0.00% increase or decrease [3]. 2. Import and Profit - **Import Prices**: From August 7th to 8th, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA decreased by 0.32% [3]. - **Profit Space**: The import profit of sugar remained unchanged from August 7th to 8th, 2025, with a 0.00% increase or decrease [3]. 3. Option and Warehouse Receipt - **Options**: The implied volatilities of SR601C5600, SR601P5600, CF509C13600, and CF509P13600 are 0.0874, 0.0855, 0.0923, and 0.0923 respectively, and the historical volatilities of SR601 and CF509 are 5.93 and 7.78 respectively [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: From August 7th to 8th, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 0.38%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.92% [3]. Company Introduction - **General Information**: CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is one of the large - scale, standardized, and high - reputation futures companies in China [8]. - **Exchange Membership**: It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil showed a lackluster performance with six consecutive negative closes, and the market sentiment was relatively weak. Although there were potential supply tightening and strong demand signals, the market reaction was flat due to the approaching end of the traditional demand peak season, India's strong response, and the progress of the US - Russia talks. The current oil price is approaching a key support level and faces a directional choice. There is a risk of the oil price breaking down due to the accumulation of US commercial crude oil inventories and the approaching seasonal demand inflection point. It is recommended to short on rallies [1][2][3][5] Summary by Directory Market Structure - The report presents the WTI forward curve, WTI monthly spreads, Brent forward curve, Brent monthly spreads, SC forward curve, and SC crude oil monthly spreads, showing the latest data and those from one and two weeks ago [11][14][16] Supply - The report shows data on US crude oil production, rigs, and active fracturing fleets, as well as OPEC+ member countries' production. It also includes the US refinery utilization rate and the refining plant utilization rate of Shandong local refineries (atmospheric and vacuum distillation units) [21][24] Demand - The report shows the production of crude oil in countries such as Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Oman, Azerbaijan, and Malaysia, reflecting the supply - side situation related to demand [30] Inventory - The report presents data on US crude oil inventories, including strategic petroleum reserves, commercial crude oil in the whole US, and commercial crude oil in Cushing, as well as the inventories of gasoline, aviation kerosene, and distillate fuel oil [27][31] Position/US Dollar - The report shows the WTI fund position, Brent fund position, WTI total position, Brent total position, and the US dollar index [32][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for coke is "Bullish", and for coking coal is also "Bullish" [1] Core Viewpoints - Macro events are mostly settled, reducing future uncertainties. The Politburo meeting shows optimism about the economy, and the Sino-US-Sweden meeting has limited substantial outcomes. The real estate financing situation has improved in July, which may repair market pessimism [4] - For coking coal, the long - term agreement price of major coking coal from Shanxi large mines has increased, the spot price is firm, the mine start - up is slow, downstream replenishment is active, and inventory is transferring from upstream to downstream [4] - For coke, the sixth round of spot price increase has started, the futures price is close to the spot price, and further price increase depends on the rise of downstream steel prices. The coke demand remains resilient, the coke enterprises' inventory is decreasing, and the port's term - hedging positions are increasing [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal 1. Market Conditions - Spot prices are stable, and futures prices are rebounding. The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,150 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is 1,229.5 yuan/ton (+8.5), the basis is - 59.5 yuan/ton (-8.5), and the September - January spread is - 142.5 yuan/ton (+4.5) [2] 2. Supply and Demand - Supply and demand have slightly declined. The operating rate of 523 mines is 86.31% (-0.59), the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is 61.51% (-0.8), and the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.48% (-0.13) [2] 3. Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is 248.26 million tons (-30.18), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 166.38 million tons (-9.23), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 803.79 million tons (+4.28), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 844.06 million tons (+2.85), and the port inventory is 282.11 million tons (-10.23) [2] Coke 1. Market Conditions - The sixth round of spot price increase has started, and futures prices are rebounding. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1,470 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is 1,667.5 yuan/ton (+23), the basis is - 87 yuan/ton (-23), and the September - January spread is - 76.5 yuan/ton (+11.5) [3] 2. Supply and Demand - Supply and demand are flat month - on - month, but there is still a gap. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.48% (-0.13), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.24% (-0.57), and the daily average hot metal output is 240.71 million tons (-1.52) [3] 3. Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, downstream inventory is changing, and port inventory is increasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 46.52 million tons (-3.6), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 626.69 million tons (-13.29), and the port inventory is 215.1 million tons (+16.97) [3] Strategy Suggestions - With the reduction of macro uncertainties, the market will return to the industrial logic. It is recommended to reduce the long positions of J01/JM01 and add positions after the callback. The coking coal market may remain strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to the adjustment risk [4][5]