Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, China's exports exceeded expectations, but container throughput dropped sharply at the beginning of August, and if the trend continues, August may be a turning point [1][11]. - Although the month - on - month PPI growth rate rebounded in July, the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged. If commodity prices can hold up in August, the year - on - year PPI growth rate may rebound, but the rebound amplitude is expected to be limited [2][17]. - The real estate market continues to be sluggish, with new home sales area at a historical low and the second - hand housing market deteriorating [2][21]. - The bond market is in a volatile state this week. Looking forward, the bond market has investment value, and bond yields may break previous lows [3][35]. Summary by Directory 1. Domestic Economic Data Tracking (1) Export Exceeded Expectations - In July, China's export value was $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, far exceeding the Wind consensus forecast of 5.8% [11]. - Due to the "rush to export", the cumulative growth rate of export value has deviated from the annual average of the new export order index. Exports to the EU and ASEAN remained resilient, while those to the US continued to decline [11]. - Container throughput continued to rise in July but dropped sharply at the beginning of August. If the trend continues, August may be a turning point [1][11]. (2) Supply - side Reform Has Not Been Transmitted to PPI - In July, the year - on - year PPI remained at - 3.6%, the same as in June, due to the base effect. However, the month - on - month PPI growth rate rebounded by 0.2 percentage points compared to June [15][17]. - If commodity prices can hold up in August, the year - on - year PPI growth rate may rebound. However, the rebound amplitude is expected to be limited because the price increase in the upstream is difficult to be transmitted downstream, and overall demand needs to recover. Currently, only the mining and raw material sectors are showing price increases, accounting for about 25% [2][19]. 2. Real Estate Policy Effect Tracking - The Real Estate Market Continued to Perform Sluggishly - The sales area of new homes in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline seasonally, remaining lower than the same period in 2024. The sales area of new homes in first - and third - tier cities was lower than in 2024, while that in second - tier cities was basically the same as last year. All are hovering at historical lows [2][21]. - As of July 28, the listing price index of second - hand housing continued to decline overall. The listing price index in first - tier cities rebounded slightly, while those in second - and third - tier cities continued to fall [2][21]. 3. Treasury Bonds: Policy Disturbance Cooled Down, and the Bond Market Remained Volatile - The bond market was relatively stable this week. The central bank conducted a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan, sending a signal of explicit support [35]. - The upward trend brought by supply - side reform cooled down this week, and the impact on the bond market was not significant. Due to the unfalsifiable expectation of economic recovery brought by policy expectations, the bond market remained volatile [35]. - Looking forward, the overall view is bullish, with short - term volatility expected. The probability of interest rates continuing to decline is relatively high, and it will take time to test the policy effects [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Jiao Coal - Sideways [1] - Coke - Sideways [1] Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of tariffs has risen again. Although the extension of the suspension of Sino - US tariffs for another 90 days is likely to be implemented, there are still some variables. With the approaching delivery of the near - month contract, the market is expected to return to the fundamentals [4]. - For Jiao Coal, the mine - end production continues to decline, but the capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants has increased. The inventory transfer from upstream to downstream has slowed down. For Coke, the sixth round of spot price increase has started, and further price increases depend on whether downstream steel products can raise prices [4]. - From the perspective of steel profit distribution in the industrial chain, Jiao Coal is relatively overvalued compared to downstream steel products. In the short term, with the implementation of steel mill production restrictions in the north, the raw material trend may be weaker than that of steel products again. It is recommended to hold long positions in J01/JM01 lightly and beware of callback risks [5]. Summary by Directory Jiao Coal Supply and Demand - The operating rate of 523 mines is 83.89% (-2.42), and the capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants is 36.22% (+1.19). The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.75% (+0.27) [2]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is 245.66 million tons (-2.6), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 288.11 million tons (+2.1), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 808.66 million tons (+4.87), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 832.75 million tons (-11.31), and the port inventory is 277.34 million tons (-4.77) [2]. Spot Price and Spread - The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal is 1,150 yuan/ton (-0), the active contract is 1,227 yuan/ton (-2.5), the basis is -57 yuan/ton (+2.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -157.5 yuan/ton (-15) [1]. Coke Supply and Demand - The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.75% (+0.27), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.09% (-0.15), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.4032 million tons (-0.39) [3]. Inventory - The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 44.63 million tons (-1.89), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 619.28 million tons (-7.41), and the port inventory is 218.15 million tons (+3.05) [3]. Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1,470 yuan/ton (+0), the active contract is 1,653.5 yuan/ton (-14), the basis is -73 yuan/ton (+14), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -80.5 yuan/ton (-4). The sixth round of price increase has started [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Core View of the Report - Sugar: Affected by consecutive droughts in autumn, winter, and spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, making it prone to pests and diseases, which need to be prevented in advance. Internationally, attention should continue to be paid to the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, attention should be continuously paid to the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. Summary According to Data 1. Price and Spread - **Ex - market Quotes**: The prices of US sugar and US cotton remained unchanged from August 9th to 10th, 2025, with a 0.00% increase or decrease [3]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 7th to 8th, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning decreased by 0.34%, in Kunming by 0.09%, the cotton index 328 by 0.09%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged [3]. - **Price Spreads**: All price spreads and basis for sugar and cotton remained unchanged from August 9th to 10th, 2025, with a 0.00% increase or decrease [3]. 2. Import and Profit - **Import Prices**: From August 7th to 8th, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA decreased by 0.32% [3]. - **Profit Space**: The import profit of sugar remained unchanged from August 7th to 8th, 2025, with a 0.00% increase or decrease [3]. 3. Option and Warehouse Receipt - **Options**: The implied volatilities of SR601C5600, SR601P5600, CF509C13600, and CF509P13600 are 0.0874, 0.0855, 0.0923, and 0.0923 respectively, and the historical volatilities of SR601 and CF509 are 5.93 and 7.78 respectively [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: From August 7th to 8th, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 0.38%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.92% [3]. Company Introduction - **General Information**: CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is one of the large - scale, standardized, and high - reputation futures companies in China [8]. - **Exchange Membership**: It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil showed a lackluster performance with six consecutive negative closes, and the market sentiment was relatively weak. Although there were potential supply tightening and strong demand signals, the market reaction was flat due to the approaching end of the traditional demand peak season, India's strong response, and the progress of the US - Russia talks. The current oil price is approaching a key support level and faces a directional choice. There is a risk of the oil price breaking down due to the accumulation of US commercial crude oil inventories and the approaching seasonal demand inflection point. It is recommended to short on rallies [1][2][3][5] Summary by Directory Market Structure - The report presents the WTI forward curve, WTI monthly spreads, Brent forward curve, Brent monthly spreads, SC forward curve, and SC crude oil monthly spreads, showing the latest data and those from one and two weeks ago [11][14][16] Supply - The report shows data on US crude oil production, rigs, and active fracturing fleets, as well as OPEC+ member countries' production. It also includes the US refinery utilization rate and the refining plant utilization rate of Shandong local refineries (atmospheric and vacuum distillation units) [21][24] Demand - The report shows the production of crude oil in countries such as Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Oman, Azerbaijan, and Malaysia, reflecting the supply - side situation related to demand [30] Inventory - The report presents data on US crude oil inventories, including strategic petroleum reserves, commercial crude oil in the whole US, and commercial crude oil in Cushing, as well as the inventories of gasoline, aviation kerosene, and distillate fuel oil [27][31] Position/US Dollar - The report shows the WTI fund position, Brent fund position, WTI total position, Brent total position, and the US dollar index [32][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for coke is "Bullish", and for coking coal is also "Bullish" [1] Core Viewpoints - Macro events are mostly settled, reducing future uncertainties. The Politburo meeting shows optimism about the economy, and the Sino-US-Sweden meeting has limited substantial outcomes. The real estate financing situation has improved in July, which may repair market pessimism [4] - For coking coal, the long - term agreement price of major coking coal from Shanxi large mines has increased, the spot price is firm, the mine start - up is slow, downstream replenishment is active, and inventory is transferring from upstream to downstream [4] - For coke, the sixth round of spot price increase has started, the futures price is close to the spot price, and further price increase depends on the rise of downstream steel prices. The coke demand remains resilient, the coke enterprises' inventory is decreasing, and the port's term - hedging positions are increasing [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal 1. Market Conditions - Spot prices are stable, and futures prices are rebounding. The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,150 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is 1,229.5 yuan/ton (+8.5), the basis is - 59.5 yuan/ton (-8.5), and the September - January spread is - 142.5 yuan/ton (+4.5) [2] 2. Supply and Demand - Supply and demand have slightly declined. The operating rate of 523 mines is 86.31% (-0.59), the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is 61.51% (-0.8), and the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.48% (-0.13) [2] 3. Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is 248.26 million tons (-30.18), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 166.38 million tons (-9.23), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 803.79 million tons (+4.28), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 844.06 million tons (+2.85), and the port inventory is 282.11 million tons (-10.23) [2] Coke 1. Market Conditions - The sixth round of spot price increase has started, and futures prices are rebounding. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1,470 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is 1,667.5 yuan/ton (+23), the basis is - 87 yuan/ton (-23), and the September - January spread is - 76.5 yuan/ton (+11.5) [3] 2. Supply and Demand - Supply and demand are flat month - on - month, but there is still a gap. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.48% (-0.13), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.24% (-0.57), and the daily average hot metal output is 240.71 million tons (-1.52) [3] 3. Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, downstream inventory is changing, and port inventory is increasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 46.52 million tons (-3.6), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 626.69 million tons (-13.29), and the port inventory is 215.1 million tons (+16.97) [3] Strategy Suggestions - With the reduction of macro uncertainties, the market will return to the industrial logic. It is recommended to reduce the long positions of J01/JM01 and add positions after the callback. The coking coal market may remain strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to the adjustment risk [4][5]

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 市场等待美农数据，棉花震荡运行 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-08-07 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：受秋冬春连旱影响，广西甘蔗出苗和前期生长不利，甘蔗长势和株 数较去年同期偏矮偏少。甜菜长势总体良好，但内蒙古产区近期降水偏多， 易发生病虫害，需提前防治。国际方面，后期需继续关注巴西产糖进度和北 半球糖料生长情况。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：全国大部分棉花产区已进入现蕾至开花阶段，生长进度比往年提前 了 4 到 7 天。根据中国气象局的气候预测，7 月份新疆地区的气温将持续偏 高，高温天数也将超过往年同期，这使得棉花面临较高的热害风险。目前， 棉花库存总量持续减少，但下游市场表现出明显的淡季特征，纺织企业在原 料采购上显得 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for both coke and coking coal [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - After major macro - events are finalized, market uncertainty decreases, and the market will return to the industrial logic [4] - For coking coal, the long - term agreement price of major mines in Shanxi has increased, the spot price is firm, the mine's inventory is transferred to downstream, and the spot trading volume is high. The coking coal market is expected to remain strong, but its upward space depends on whether other black - sector varieties can catch up. In the short - term, it is recommended to hold and add positions to J01/JM01 contracts [4][5] - For coke, the fifth round of spot price increase has been implemented, with limited room for further increase. The demand for coke remains resilient due to high production enthusiasm of steel mills. Coke enterprises are reducing inventory, and the inventory in ports is increasing [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The operating rates of 523 mines and 110 coal - washing plants have decreased, and the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises has also slightly declined [2] Inventory - Upstream mines and coal - washing plants are reducing inventory, while downstream steel mills and coking enterprises are increasing inventory. Port inventory has decreased [2] Spot Price and Spread - The spot price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is stable at 1150 yuan/ton. The active contract price is 1221 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan. The basis is - 51 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 147 yuan/ton, down 11.5 yuan [2] Coke Supply and Demand - The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises has slightly decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills and the daily average pig - iron output have also declined. Supply and demand are flat month - on - month, but there is still a gap [3] Inventory - Coking enterprises are reducing inventory, steel mills' inventory has decreased, and port inventory has increased [3] Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke in Tianjin Port is 1470 yuan/ton after the fifth round of price increase. The active contract price is 1644.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The basis is - 64 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 88 yuan/ton, down 14.5 yuan [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon's spot price continues to weaken, and the market is mainly oscillating. The supply pressure will increase in the short term, and the demand may decline significantly after the downstream production cut. The inventory begins to be depleted, but there is still a possibility of further decline following the fundamentals [1][2]. - For polysilicon, the expectation of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic industry still exists. The short - term sentiment turns to the fundamentals, and the price has fallen back. The supply is still under pressure, and the demand is expected to decline. The price has rebounded but may still have a short - term correction [3]. - The trading logic suggests that the fundamentals of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are currently weak, and there is a short - term risk of decline with the exchange's intervention. The recommended operation is to short industrial silicon on rallies and wait and see for polysilicon [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Supply Side - The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 silicon is 9000 - 9200 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In July, the output of industrial silicon rose to 330,000 tons, 10,000 tons more than in June. The output increase mainly comes from the southwest region, while the output in Xinjiang decreased slightly. Although the production cut by leading enterprises at the end of June relieved the supply pressure, the supply pressure will continue to increase in the short term due to the resumption of production in the southwest [2]. Downstream Demand Side - The output of polysilicon increased slightly in June, reaching 101,000 tons. After the end of the photovoltaic installation rush, the demand for polysilicon is expected to decline, but it may increase during the wet season. In the long term, the expectation of production cut due to supply - side reform is strong. The combined production cut of organic silicon monomer manufacturers has ended, but the demand for industrial silicon has declined due to short - term production stagnation. The demand for industrial silicon from alloy silicon remains stable [2]. Inventory - The inventory of industrial silicon has started to be depleted, but the social inventory has accumulated again. This week's inventory increased by 5,000 tons compared with last week, and the current social inventory is reported at 540,000 tons [2]. Polysilicon Supply Side - The price of polysilicon has rebounded, and the spot price of re - feeding material has been continuously raised to 46,000 yuan/ton. The output in June was 101,000 tons, and it is expected to increase to about 108,000 tons in July, so the supply side is still under pressure [3]. Downstream Demand Side - With the gradual withdrawal of photovoltaic subsidies and the entry of the power market into the market - oriented trading stage, the terminal installation was over - consumed in the first half of the year. The installation in June was only 13GW, showing a sharp decline. The expectation of weakening photovoltaic installation in the second half of the year is strengthened, and the demand for polysilicon will decline to a large extent [3]. Inventory - The current polysilicon inventory is about 229,000 tons, and part of the inventory has been registered on the disk. The industry still has a large pressure to reduce inventory [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Both sugar and cotton are rated as "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar: Affected by consecutive droughts from autumn to spring, sugarcane emergence and early growth in Guangxi are unfavorable, with shorter and fewer sugarcane plants compared to the same period last year. Beet growth is generally good, but recent heavy rainfall in Inner Mongolia may lead to pests and diseases. Internationally, attention should be paid to Brazil's sugar production progress and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton - growing areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, 4 to 7 days earlier than usual. High temperatures in Xinjiang in July pose a heat - damage risk. Cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market is in a slack season, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Weather changes and tariff uncertainties need to be monitored [1]. Data Summary Price Changes - **Foreign Market Quotes**: From August 3 to August 4, 2025, the price of US sugar increased by 0.31% from 16.2 to 16.25 dollars, and US cotton rose by 0.30% from 66.42 to 66.62 dollars [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of sugar in Nanning remained unchanged at 6030.0 yuan from August 1 to August 4, 2025. In Kunming, it decreased by 0.26% from 5880.0 to 5865.0 yuan. The cotton index 328 dropped by 0.70% from 3281 to 3280, and cotton in Xinjiang fell by 1.30% from 15400.0 to 15200.0 yuan [3]. Spread Changes - **Sugar Spreads**: From August 3 to August 4, 2025, SR01 - 05 increased by 24.00% from 50.0 to 62.0, SR05 - 09 decreased by 11.66% from - 163.0 to - 144.0, and SR09 - 01 dropped by 27.43% from 113.0 to 82.0 [3]. - **Cotton Spreads**: CF01 - 05 decreased by 18.18% from 55.0 to 45.0, CF05 - 09 fell by 41.38% from 145.0 to 85.0, and CF09 - 01 increased by 35.00% from - 200.0 to - 130.0 [3]. Basis Changes - **Sugar Basis**: From August 1 to August 4, 2025, the basis of sugar 01 decreased by 11.92% from 260.0 to 229.0, sugar 05 decreased by 6.13% from 310.0 to 291.0, and sugar 09 remained unchanged at 147.0 [3]. - **Cotton Basis**: The basis of cotton 01 decreased by 8.61% from 1475.0 to 1348.0, cotton 05 dropped by 8.95% from 1530.0 to 1393.0, and cotton 09 decreased by 11.76% from 1675.0 to 1478.0 [3]. Other Data - **Import Price**: The import price of cotton cotlookA decreased by 1.27% from 78.5 to 77.5 from August 1 to August 4, 2025 [3]. - **Profit Margin**: The import profit of sugar increased by 1.41% from 1597.0 to 1619.5 from August 1 to August 4, 2025 [3]. - **Option Data**: For options, SR509C5700 has an implied volatility of 0.0764 with a historical volatility of 7.06 for the underlying SR509; SR509P5700 has an implied volatility of 0.0707. CF509C13600 has an implied volatility of 0.096 with a historical volatility of 9.18 for the underlying CF509; CF509P13600 has an implied volatility of 0.0937 [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: From August 1 to August 4, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 0.36% from 19443.0 to 19373.0, and cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 1.40% from 8807.0 to 8684.0 [3]. Company Information - Report research is conducted by CINDA Futures Co., Ltd., a wholly - owned subsidiary of CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It is a large - scale and reputable domestic futures company, holding memberships in multiple exchanges [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the popularity of major financial concepts such as stablecoins ebbed, the market mainly engaged in thematic speculation around "anti - involution" and the Yaxia Hydropower Station in July. There were signs of increasing divergence in funds regarding the cyclical style at the end of the month, and the market was in a relatively strong oscillatory state [3] - In August, there are limited expected macro - level positives. Domestically, after the tone - setting of the Political Bureau meeting, there are no obvious over - expected clues in the short term, and the policy is mainly about implementation. Overseas, Sino - US trade negotiations are ongoing, and issues like the change of the Fed Chairman will indirectly affect foreign investors' willingness to participate in the A - share market [3] - Investors are advised to prepare for defense in August. In the first half of the month, there may be a phased pull - back in stock indices due to strengthened technical pressure. In a six - month perspective, the four major indices are expected to approach the 2023 highs, with small - cap indices like CSI 500 and CSI 1000 performing better in a liquidity - easing cycle [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Stock Market Information - The central bank, the financial regulatory administration, and the CSRC plan to further clarify the specific requirements for risk - based customer due diligence of financial institutions. For remittances of over RMB 5,000 or foreign currency equivalent to $1,000, the identity of the remitter should be verified [5] - Beijing has introduced 16 measures to promote the development of future industries, focusing on areas such as urban transportation and medical health, and exploring the opening of application demonstration scenarios [5] 3.2 Stock Index盘面回顾 (Stock Index Market Review) - In the previous trading day, the A - share market opened lower and closed higher. Among the four major indices, the Shanghai 50 rose 0.55%, the CSI 300 rose 0.39%, the CSI 500 rose 0.78%, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.04%. The precious metals (+3.84%) and aerospace and military industries (+3.59%) led the gains, while the education (-0.72%) and automobile (-0.66%) sectors lagged. There were more than 3,800 rising stocks and 70 daily limit stocks, indicating a good profit - making effect [5] - The daily and weekly lines maintained an upward trend, indicating short - term market strength, while the monthly line remained in an oscillatory state [5] - The trading volume of the A - share market dropped to around 1.5 trillion yuan, and the trading enthusiasm declined marginally [5] 3.3 Core Logic Summary - After the decline of major financial concepts, the market had new themes in July, and there were signs of divergence in the cyclical style. In August, with limited macro - level positives, investors should be defensive, especially in the first half of the month. In the medium - term, small - cap indices are expected to perform better [3] 3.4 Operation Suggestions - In futures operations, it is recommended to switch to a defensive state temporarily, choose to wait and see or conduct short - term long positions intraday. Buying on dips is a good opportunity, and IH - IM can be pre - arranged on the left side [4] - In options operations, the implied volatility of stock index options has decreased. During the narrow - range oscillation period, the cost - effectiveness of participating in options is not high, and it is recommended to wait for a second wave of rising volatility [4]