-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——看涨 焦煤——看涨 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 煤焦大幅上行，供改预期或有反复，多单择机加仓 报告内容摘要: 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 3 日 [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 焦煤： 现货企稳，期货反弹。蒙 5#主焦煤报 868 元/吨(-0)，部分地区现货小幅提涨。活跃 合约报 843.5 元/吨(+29)。基差 44.5 元/吨(-29)，9-1 月差-48 元/吨（-5.5）。 供给收缩，需求小幅下调。523 家矿山开工率报 82.48%（-2.01），110 家洗煤厂 开工率报 5 ...

商品研究 棉花：由于美国施加的关税影响，棉花进口量未达到预期。自播种以来， 全国棉区的光照和温度总体适宜，有利于棉花的生长。目前，新疆大部分地 区的棉花已进入现蕾期，而黄河和长江流域的棉花则处于第五真叶至现蕾 期。大多数棉花的发育期比往年提前了 3 到 15 天，后续需要持续关注天气 对单产的影响。 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 1 [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将 ...

-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡偏强 焦煤——震荡 供改预期升温，盘面减仓下行，逢低做多 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 2 日 报告内容摘要: 焦煤： 现货企稳，期货回落。蒙 5#主焦煤报 868 元/吨(-0)，部分地区现货小幅提涨。活跃 合约报 814.5 元/吨(-10.5)。基差 73.5 元/吨(+10.5)，9-1 月差-42.5 元/吨（-6.5）。 供给收缩，需求小幅下调。523 家矿山开工率报 82.48%（-2.01），110 家洗煤厂 开工率报 59.1%(-2.24)。230 家独 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 1 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 产量预期强劲，原糖持续承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-07-02 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 主产国预期产量强劲，原糖承压 报告内容摘要: [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-07-01 [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将增产，而巴西的干旱影响相对有限， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "volatile and bullish" rating for both coking coal and coke [1][5] Core Viewpoints - With the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran and the signing of a trade agreement between China and the US, external risks are easing, and market sentiment is warming up. However, domestic economic data is below expectations, and the market may speculate on the Political Bureau meeting at the end of July. The implementation of crude steel production restrictions is under discussion, but steel mills are reluctant to cut production due to acceptable profits [4] - For coking coal, under the influence of safety inspections, mines and coal washing plants have reduced production, and the supply contraction has affected the inventory. The fundamentals are showing positive factors. But after the safety inspections end and mines resume production, the spot acceptance and market reaction need to be observed. The J09 contract is recommended to add positions after the coking coal correction ends, and go long on coking coal at low prices after the correction [4][5] - For coke, as coking coal stabilizes, the cost center moves up, providing strong support. The blast furnace profit remains high, and the molten iron output increases slightly, with the supply - demand situation continuing to improve [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The operating rates of 523 mines and 110 coal washing plants decreased to 82.48% (-2.01) and 59.1% (-2.24) respectively. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises decreased to 73.26% (-0.16) [2] Inventory - Upstream mines and coal washing plants reduced inventory, while downstream steel mills and coking enterprises increased inventory. The port inventory decreased [2] Spot Price and Spread - The spot price of Mongolian 5 coking coal was 868 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract was 825 yuan/ton (-22.5). The basis was 63 yuan/ton (+22.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was -36 yuan/ton (+6.5) [2] Coke Supply and Demand - The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises decreased to 73.26% (-0.16). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased to 90.83% (+0.04), and the daily average molten iron output was 242.29 million tons (+0.11) [3] Inventory - The inventory of the entire industrial chain decreased, with the inventory of 230 coking enterprises, 247 steel mills, and ports all decreasing [3] Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was 1220 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract was 1404 yuan/ton (-17.5). The basis was -92 yuan/ton (+17.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was -38.5 yuan/ton (+1.5) [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index market is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the stock index market rebounded due to the cease - fire between Iran and Israel, which restored global risk appetite, and the fermentation of concepts like "Stability Ratio + Military Parade". The small and medium - cap growth sectors led the market, and the financial and growth styles performed well. The gains of the four major broad - based indices were: CSI 1000 (+4.62%) > CSI 500 (+3.98%) > SSE 50 (+1.27%) [1]. - In the US stock market, the three major indices all closed in the green last week, with the Nasdaq rising 4.25% [1]. - From the perspective of Shenwan's primary industry classification, most sectors rose last week. Computer (+7.70%) and National Defense and Military Industry (+6.90%) led the gains, while Petroleum and Petrochemicals (-2.07%) and Food and Beverage (-0.88%) lagged [2]. - The trading volume of A - shares increased last week, indicating a restart of investors' trading enthusiasm, but it was still at a neutral - to - bullish level in the short term. After continuous low - volatility periods, the market sentiment broke through last week, with the four major broad - based indices generally surpassing their May highs, showing stronger short - term (daily) bullish sentiment. However, the upward momentum weakened on Thursday and Friday [2]. - The fundamental logic behind the stock index has not changed. The short - term rise is just a manifestation of lingering sentiment, and it is difficult to form a trend - based upward force. This week, the short - term daily bullish power has strengthened, and the market can be regarded as having a relatively strong oscillation. Given that the technical indicators are at high levels and the imagination space of recent themes is limited, it is expected to be difficult to break through the March high. It is recommended that investors can choose short - term long positions within the day or continue to wait and see [2]. - In the derivatives market, the discount of stock index futures has rapidly converged. Currently, the annualized discount rates of the current - quarter contracts of IC and IM have reached 8% and 10% respectively, and it is expected that the convergence speed will slow down. Long positions as substitutes for long - term index investment in futures can be held [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Last Week's Stock Index Operation 3.1.1 International Risk Preference Restoration and General Rise of Global Stock Indices - The stock index market rebounded last week. The reasons were the cease - fire between Iran and Israel, which restored global risk appetite, and the fermentation of concepts like "Stability Ratio + Military Parade". The small and medium - cap growth sectors led the market, and the financial and growth styles performed well. Among the four major broad - based indices, CSI 1000 (+4.62%) > CSI 500 (+3.98%) > SSE 50 (+1.27%) [8]. - Overseas, the easing of the Middle East situation and the restart of interest - rate cut expectations led to a general recovery of global risk assets. In the US stock market, the three major indices all closed in the green last week, with the Nasdaq rising 4.25% [8]. 3.1.2 Computer and National Defense and Military Industry Leading the Gains, and Trading Volume Larger than the Previous Week - From the perspective of Shenwan's primary industry classification, most sectors rose last week. Computer (+7.70%) and National Defense and Military Industry (+6.90%) led the gains, while Petroleum and Petrochemicals (-2.07%) and Food and Beverage (-0.88%) lagged [9]. - In terms of capital flow, the trading volume of A - shares increased last week, with the highest reaching over 16 trillion yuan during the week. Investors' trading enthusiasm restarted, and it was still at a neutral - to - bullish level in the short term [9]. 3.1.3 Continued Convergence of Futures Discount and Fluctuation of Option Volatility - In the futures market, the basis (spot - futures) of each futures contract continued to decline last week. Currently, the annualized discount rates of the current - quarter contracts of IC and IM have reached 8% and 10% respectively, and it is expected that the convergence speed will slow down. In operation, short - term investors can choose short - term long positions within the day or continue to wait and see. For monthly operations, the band - trading idea should be maintained. Long positions as substitutes for long - term index investment in futures can be held [10]. - In the options market, the implied volatility of stock index options first rose and then fell last week. The IV of the at - the - money contracts of SSE 300 Index Options reached up to 15% during the week and dropped to 13% at the end of the week. It is expected that the volatility will mainly oscillate at a low level in the short term. The previous short - term double - selling positions can take profits and exit. After a second wave of rising volatility, investors can re - enter the market [10]. 3.2 Fundamental Factors and Outlook for the Future 3.2.1 The Central Bank's Net Injection of 136.72 Billion Yuan in the Open Market Last Week - In terms of inter - bank liquidity, the central bank achieved a net injection of 136.72 billion yuan in the open market last week. It conducted 202.75 billion yuan of open - market reverse repurchase operations and 30 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a total reverse - repurchase maturity amount of 96.03 billion yuan [71]. - In terms of inter - bank interest rates, the interest rates of various tenors increased slightly last week. The overnight Shibor rose 0.30bp, the one - week Shibor rose 13.90bp, the two - week Shibor rose 3.60bp, R001 rose 1.22bp, R007 rose 32.91bp, and R014 rose 8.89bp [71]. 3.2.2 Maintaining the Idea of an Oscillating Market - After continuous low - volatility periods, the market sentiment broke through last week, with the four major broad - based indices generally surpassing their May highs, indicating stronger short - term (daily) bullish sentiment [72]. - However, the upward momentum weakened on Thursday and Friday, with indicators such as trading volume and volatility showing varying degrees of decline. The fundamental logic behind the stock index has not changed. The short - term rise is just a manifestation of lingering sentiment, and it is difficult to form a trend - based upward force [72]. - This week, the short - term daily bullish power has strengthened, and the market can be regarded as having a relatively strong oscillation. Given that the technical indicators are at high levels and the imagination space of recent themes is limited, it is expected to be difficult to break through the March high. It is recommended that investors can choose short - term long positions within the day or continue to wait and see. In the derivatives market, the discount of stock index futures has rapidly converged. Currently, the annualized discount rates of the current - quarter contracts of IC and IM have reached 8% and 10% respectively, and it is expected that the convergence speed will slow down. Long positions as substitutes for long - term index investment in futures can be held [72]. 3.3 Economic Data and Financial Event Forecast 3.3.1 Announcement of Macroeconomic Data - The report mentions the announcement of macroeconomic data, but specific details are not provided [100]. 3.3.2 Key Financial Events - There are no major financial events. Specific events include: the release of the official manufacturing PMI for June at 09:30 on June 30; the release of the US manufacturing PMI for June at 22:00 on July 1; the release of the US unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls for June at 20:30 on July 3; and the release of the US non - manufacturing PMI for June at 22:00 on July 3 [101].

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 消费淡季来临，棉花盘整为主 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-30 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将增产，而巴西的干旱影响相对有限，全 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Futures Quantitative Report - Date: June 29, 2025 - Researcher: Chen Weiwen - Contact Information: Phone 0571 - 28132619, Email chenweiwen@cindasc.com [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the overall performance of commodity futures is mixed, with significant differences in the rise and fall of various sectors and varieties. The total commodity positions slightly decreased this week. The market is in a stage of stock - fund game, and there are differences in the short - term trends of different varieties [4][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Plate Rise and Fall - Wind Commodity Index fell 1.01%, Wind Precious Metals Index fell 1.06%, Wind Non - ferrous Metals Index rose 3.98%, Wind Coking Coal and Steel Ore Index rose 2.24%, Wind Energy Index fell 11.01%, Wind Chemical Index fell 2.27%, Wind Non - metallic Building Materials Index rose 1.08%, Wind Oilseeds and Oils Index fell 3.58%, Wind Soft Commodities Index rose 0.76%, Wind Grain Index fell 0.81%, and Wind Agricultural and Sideline Products Index rose 1.49% [4] 3.2 Variety Rise and Fall - This week, the rise and fall of varieties are different. Industrial Silicon Index soared 8.48%, Lithium Carbonate Index rose 7.16%, Coking Coal Index rose 6.99%, Polysilicon Index rose 5.92%, Red Date Index rose 4.83%, Crude Oil Index plunged 12.21%, Fuel Oil Index plunged 10.89%, Low - sulfur Fuel Oil Index plunged 8.5%, Rapeseed Index fell 5.97%, and LPG Index fell 5.69% [7] 3.3 Strategy Signals - From the perspective of position, the total commodity positions slightly decreased this week. Red dates, pulp, Shanghai Tin, Rapeseed Meal, Coking Coal and other varieties had a relatively high increase in positions. Currently, the position percentiles of Coking Coal, Red Dates, Hot - rolled Coil, Soybean Meal, and Shanghai Copper are above 90%. - From the perspective of volatility, the volatility percentiles of Crude Oil, Fuel Oil and other varieties are above 90%, while those of Shanghai Lead, Apple, Stainless Steel, Corn, Sugar, Hot - rolled Coil, Cotton, Rebar, Shanghai Nickel, Iron Ore, and Live Pigs are below 10%. - From the perspective of basis, Red Dates, Polyethylene, Pulp, Glass, Shanghai Zinc and other futures have a large discount, while Coke, Eggs and other futures have a large premium. - Key varieties to focus on recently: Red Dates, Pulp, Cotton, Shanghai Copper, Coking Coal [8] 3.4 Fund Tracking - In terms of precipitation funds, varieties with more precipitation funds this week are Shanghai Gold, Shanghai Copper, Shanghai Silver, Soybean Meal, and Iron Ore, indicating a greater long - term interest from the market. Varieties with less precipitation funds are Early Indica Rice, Common Wheat, Strong Gluten Wheat, Late Indica Rice, and Steam Coal, indicating a smaller long - term interest from the market. - In terms of fund flow, the market is in a stage of stock - fund game this week. Varieties with the largest fund inflows are Shanghai Copper, Coking Coal, Cotton, Shanghai Tin, and Pulp, indicating increased short - term differences in the market for these varieties and potential large - scale market movements. Varieties with the largest fund outflows are Shanghai Gold, Rapeseed Oil, PTA, Soybean Meal, and Shanghai Nickel, indicating reduced short - term differences in the market for these varieties and a lower possibility of large - scale market movements [9] 3.5 Member Positions - Varieties with consistent long net positions this week are Shanghai Gold, Shanghai Copper, Shanghai Tin, Asphalt, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Cotton, indicating a long - term bullish view on these varieties. - Varieties with consistent short net positions this week are Glass, Soda Ash, PVC, Methanol, Short Fibre, Rubber, and Live Pigs, indicating a long - term bearish view on these varieties. - Varieties with consistent net position changes turning long this week are Shanghai Copper, Shanghai Nickel, Shanghai Tin, Shanghai Zinc, Coking Coal, Soda Ash, 20 - grade Rubber, and Peanuts, indicating a short - term bullish view on these varieties. - Varieties with consistent net position changes turning short this week are Fuel Oil, Styrene, Methanol, Short Fibre, PTA, Urea, Soybean Meal, Red Dates, and Corn Starch, indicating a short - term bearish view on these varieties [10]

Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "sideways", and for coking coal is also "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - The end of the Iran-Israel conflict and the potential for a further Sino-US trade agreement in the near future are releasing external disturbance risks. Coking coal will return to its own logic. The short - term recommendation is to hold a light long position in J09 and gradually increase the position [5] - For coking coal, the spot price is stabilizing, and trading volume is gradually picking up. The start - up of mines and coal washing plants is increasing. For coke, the fourth round of spot price cuts has been implemented, and there is little room for further cuts. With the strengthening of coking coal, the cost support is gradually transmitted to coke, and the supply - demand margin of coke is improving [5] Summary by Directory Coking Coal Related Information - On June 26, White House officials stated that the US and China had reached an understanding on how to speed up the transportation of rare earths to the US [1] Spot and Futures - The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 868 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is reported at 804.5 yuan/ton (+20.5), the basis is 83.5 yuan/ton (-20.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 43 yuan/ton (+0.5) [1] Supply and Demand - The resumption of production at the mine end and the reduction of the capacity utilization rate of coking enterprises. The starting rate of 523 mines is reported at 84.49% (+0.78), the starting rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 61.34% (+3.2), and the productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 73.42% (-0.54) [2] Inventory - Upstream inventory accumulates, and downstream inventory decreases. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 499.15 million tons (+13.11), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 237.39 million tons (-14.08), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 774.66 million tons (+0.68), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 665.65 million tons (-3.88), and the port inventory is 303.31 million tons (-8.71) [2] Coke Spot and Futures - The fourth round of spot price cuts has been implemented. The price of quasi - first - class coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1220 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is reported at 1387.5 yuan/ton (+36), the basis is - 76 yuan/ton (-36), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 40.5 yuan/ton (+7.5) [3] Supply and Demand - Supply decreases, and demand slightly rebounds. The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 73.42% (-0.54), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 90.79% (+0.21), and the daily average pig iron output is 242.18 million tons (+0.57) [3] Inventory - Both upstream and downstream continue to reduce inventory, and the port inventory remains flat. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 80.93 million tons (-6.38), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 634.2 million tons (-8.64), and the port inventory is 203.11 million tons (+0.02) [3] Strategy Suggestion - The end of the Iran - Israel conflict and the potential for a Sino - US trade agreement in the near future are releasing external risks. Coking coal has shown a relatively strong trend. The short - term suggestion is to hold a light long position in J09 and gradually increase the position. In addition to the capital side, on the fundamental side, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there is any active production reduction behavior at the mine end [5]