1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating of the stock index is "volatile" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, investor sentiment remains strong, and sectors such as securities brokers related to bull - market expectations have performed well. However, the main line of the bull market has not been established, and it will take time to form a structural slow - bull market. The market has shown some fear of high prices, but the willingness of funds to enter the market is strong. The callback depth and space are limited, and the profit margin of unilateral operations is relatively narrow. It is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate at a high level this week [3]. - For futures operations, short - term long within a day is advisable, and it is an opportunity to lay out long - term long orders when there is a sharp decline. There is still an expectation of regression for IH - IM, and it is still in the left - hand trading area in the short term, with preset stop - profit and stop - loss recommended. For option operations, the implied volatility of stock index options rebounded after hitting the bottom yesterday. This week, one can try short - term double - selling to narrow the volatility, with preset stop - profit and stop - loss. Investors with a conservative preference can wait for the volatility of CSI 300 options to rise to 20% before intervening [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Stock Market Information - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that child - rearing subsidies issued in accordance with the child - rearing subsidy system are exempt from personal income tax, effective January 1, 2025 [4]. - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with only two opposing. There are differences among Fed officials regarding the risks of inflation, employment, and the impact of tariffs on inflation, but most think the risk of rising inflation is higher than the risk of declining employment [4]. 3.2 Stock Index盘面 Review - **Market Performance**: In the previous trading day, the A - share market opened lower and closed higher. Among the four major indexes, the Shanghai 50 Index rose 1.23%, the CSI 300 Index rose 1.14%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.09%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.86%. In terms of sectors, computer hardware (+3.59%) and petrochemicals (+3.54%) led the gains, while highways (-0.41%) and biotechnology (-0.15%) lagged. More than 3,600 stocks rose, and 104 stocks hit the daily limit, indicating a good profit - making effect [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily and weekly lines of the four major stock indexes maintain an upward trend, and they have generally broken through the 2023 high, showing a strong technical pattern [4]. - **Fund Flow**: The trading volume of the A - share market slightly declined to around 2.4 trillion yuan, indicating a relatively high trading enthusiasm [4]. 3.3 Core Logic Summary - Short - term investor sentiment is strong, and sectors related to bull - market expectations have performed well. However, the main line of the bull market is not clear, and the market shows fear of high prices. Although the short - term sentiment is still optimistic, the callback space is limited, and the profit margin of unilateral operations is narrow. It is expected that the market will fluctuate at a high level this week [3]. 3.4 Operation Suggestions - **Futures**: Short - term long within a day is advisable, and it is an opportunity to lay out long - term long orders when there is a sharp decline. For IH - IM, there is an expectation of regression, and it is in the left - hand trading area in the short term, with preset stop - profit and stop - loss recommended [3]. - **Options**: Try short - term double - selling to narrow the volatility this week, with preset stop - profit and stop - loss. Conservative investors can wait for the volatility of CSI 300 options to rise to 20% before intervening [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - For sugar, extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may affect sugar production, while summer cold - drink consumption boosts seasonal demand. Sugar imports have recently increased significantly due to the expanding price difference between domestic and foreign markets, but the annual import volume is expected to remain within the expected range [1] - For cotton, most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening stage. The growth progress is earlier than usual. High - temperature and low - precipitation conditions in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August may increase the risk of heat damage to cotton. The decreasing commercial inventory and the upcoming peak season for cotton textile support cotton prices [1] Data Summary Price Data - **Foreign Futures Prices**: On August 18 - 19, 2025, the price of US sugar rose from $16.24 to $16.3, a 0.37% increase; the price of US cotton fell from $67.84 to $67.53, a 0.46% decrease [3] - **Spot Prices**: From August 18 to 19, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged; the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.06%, and the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged [3] Spread Data - **Sugar Spreads**: From August 18 to 19, 2025, SR01 - 05 decreased by 8.70%, SR05 - 09 decreased by 11.82%, SR09 - 01 decreased by 14.06%, and the basis of sugar contracts all increased to varying degrees [3] - **Cotton Spreads**: From August 18 to 19, 2025, CF01 - 05 decreased by 50.00%, CF05 - 09 increased by 1.96%, CF09 - 01 decreased by 5.08%, and the basis of cotton contracts all increased to varying degrees [3] Import - Related Data - **Import Price**: From August 18 to 19, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA increased by 0.19% [3] - **Profit Space**: From August 18 to 19, 2025, the sugar import profit remained unchanged [3] Option Data - For sugar option SR601C5700, the implied volatility is 0.083, and the historical volatility of the underlying futures SR601 is 6.19; for SR601P5700, the implied volatility is 0.0844. For cotton option CF601C14000, the implied volatility is 0.1017, and the historical volatility of the underlying futures CF601 is 5.61; for CF601P14000, the implied volatility is 0.1056 [3] Inventory Data - From August 18 to 19, 2025, the number of sugar inventory warrants decreased by 2.63%, and the number of cotton inventory warrants decreased by 2.14% [3] Company Information - Xinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business, wholly - owned by Xinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has various memberships in multiple exchanges and associations [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "Shock" [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - From July, extreme rainfall in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia affected local sugarcane and sugar beet crops, and the potential impact on sugar production needs continuous monitoring. Summer cold - drink consumption drives seasonal growth in sugar demand. Although recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets, the annual import volume is still expected to be within the forecast range [1] - Most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin faces a high risk of heat damage due to high temperatures and insufficient precipitation. Currently, commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, which supports cotton prices [1] Group 3: Summary of Data 1. Price Changes - From August 17 - 18, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 1.40% to $16.24, and the price of US cotton increased by 0.53% to $67.84. Among domestic spot prices, the price of Nanning sugar remained unchanged at 5980 yuan, Kunming sugar decreased by 0.09% to 5855 yuan, the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.12% to 3280, and Xinjiang cotton increased by 0.33% to 15100 yuan [3] 2. Spread Changes - From August 17 - 18, 2025, SR01 - 05 increased by 9.52% to 46, SR05 - 09 increased by 6.78% to - 110, SR09 - 01 decreased by 15.79% to 64, CF01 - 05 increased by 33.33% to 40, CF05 - 09 remained unchanged at 255, and CF09 - 01 decreased by 3.51% to - 295. The basis of sugar 01 decreased by 6.63% to 183, sugar 05 decreased by 3.78% to 229, sugar 09 decreased by 0.83% to 119, cotton 01 increased by 1.19% to 1109, cotton 05 increased by 2.04% to 1149, and cotton 09 increased by 1.67% to 1404 [3] 3. Import Price and Profit Changes - From August 15 - 18, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA decreased by 0.31% to 79.15, and the sugar import profit increased by 2.79% to 1565 [3] 4. Option Information - For options, the implied volatility of SR601C5700 is 0.0832 with a futures underlying of SR601 and a historical volatility of 6.18; the implied volatility of SR601P5700 is 0.084. The implied volatility of CF601C14200 is 0.1094 with a futures underlying of CF601 and a historical volatility of 5.61; the implied volatility of CF601P14200 is 0.1099 [3] 5. Warehouse Receipt Changes - From August 15 - 18, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1.01% to 16931, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.86% to 7762 [3] Group 4: Company Information - Xinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Xinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It is a comprehensive settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, and a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - For sugar, since July, extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia has affected local sugarcane and sugar beet crops, and the potential impact on sugar production needs continuous monitoring. Summer cold drink consumption drives a seasonal increase in sugar demand. Recently, sugar imports have climbed significantly due to the widening domestic - foreign price gap, but the annual import volume is still expected to be within the forecast range [1]. - For cotton, most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of blooming, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening and flocculation stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin faces a high risk of heat damage due to high temperatures and insufficient precipitation. Currently, commercial cotton inventories are declining, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, which supports cotton prices [1]. Data Overview 1. Price Changes - **Foreign Market Quotes**: From August 17 to 18, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased from 16.47 dollars to 16.24 dollars, a decline of 1.40%, while the price of US cotton increased from 67.48 dollars to 67.84 dollars, a rise of 0.53% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 15 to 18, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning remained unchanged at 5980.0 yuan, the price in Kunming decreased from 5860.0 yuan to 5855.0 yuan, a decline of 0.09%. The cotton index 328 decreased slightly from 3281 to 3280, a decline of 0.12%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang increased from 15050.0 yuan to 15100.0 yuan, a rise of 0.33% [3]. 2. Spread Changes - **Sugar Spreads**: From August 17 to 18, 2025, SR01 - 05 increased from 42.0 to 46.0, a rise of 9.52%; SR05 - 09 increased from - 118.0 to - 110.0, a decline of 6.78%; SR09 - 01 decreased from 76.0 to 64.0, a decline of 15.79% [3]. - **Cotton Spreads**: CF01 - 05 increased from 30.0 to 40.0, a rise of 33.33%; CF05 - 09 remained unchanged at 255.0; CF09 - 01 decreased from - 285.0 to - 295.0, a decline of 3.51% [3]. 3. Basis Changes - **Sugar Basis**: From August 15 to 18, 2025, the basis of sugar 01 decreased from 196.0 to 183.0, a decline of 6.63%; the basis of sugar 05 decreased from 238.0 to 229.0, a decline of 3.78%; the basis of sugar 09 decreased from 120.0 to 119.0, a decline of 0.83% [3]. - **Cotton Basis**: The basis of cotton 01 increased from 1096.0 to 1109.0, a rise of 1.19%; the basis of cotton 05 increased from 1126.0 to 1149.0, a rise of 2.04%; the basis of cotton 09 increased from 1381.0 to 1404.0, a rise of 1.67% [3]. 4. Import Price and Profit - **Import Price**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 79.4 from August 15 to 18, 2025 [3]. - **Profit Space**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1495.0 from August 15 to 18, 2025 [3]. 5. Option Information - For the SR601C5700 option, the implied volatility is 0.0832, and the historical volatility of the underlying futures SR601 is 6.18. For the SR601P5700 option, the implied volatility is 0.084. For the CF601C14200 option, the implied volatility is 0.1094, and the historical volatility of the underlying futures CF601 is 5.61. For the CF601P14200 option, the implied volatility is 0.1099 [3]. 6. Warehouse Receipt Changes - From August 15 to 18, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 17104.0 to 16931.0, a decline of 1.01%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 7829.0 to 7762.0, a decline of 0.86% [3] Company Information - The report is issued by CINDA Futures Co., Ltd., located at the 19 - 20th floors of Tianren Building, Qianjiang Century City, Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou, with a postal code of 311200. It is a wholly - owned subsidiary of CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It is a large - scale and high - reputation futures company in China, holding various memberships in multiple exchanges and associations [1][2][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bull market sentiment continued to ferment last week, with the stock index hitting a new high for the year. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3,700 - point mark during the week, and the small - cap growth style outperformed. The overseas market sentiment returned to caution, and the US stock market was basically flat. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level this week, and the one - sided trading strategy should focus on short - term long positions within the day [1][2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Last Week's Stock Index Operation Review 1. Bull Market Atmosphere Continued to Ferment, and A - shares Reached a New High - The bull market atmosphere continued to ferment last week, and the stock index hit a new high for the year. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3,700 points. Among the four broad - based indexes, CSI 1000 (+4.09%) > CSI 500 (+3.88%) > SSE 50 (+2.37%) > SSE 50 (+1.57%). Overseas, the international market sentiment became cautious, and US stocks were basically flat, with the Nasdaq rising 0.81% [1][8] 2. Communications and Electronics Led the Rise, and Trading Volume Increased Rapidly - From the perspective of Shenwan's primary industry classification, most sectors rose last week. Communications (+7.66%) and electronics (+7.02%) led the gains, while banks (-3.19%) and steel (-2.04%) lagged. The A - share trading volume increased rapidly and exceeded 2 trillion at the end of the week [2][9] 3. The Premium of Stock Index Futures Narrowed Rapidly, and the Option Volatility Increased Rapidly - In the futures market, the basis of each stock index futures (spot - futures) declined last week. In operation, short - term long positions within the day are appropriate, and it is an opportunity to lay out long - term long positions when there is a sharp decline. In the options market, the implied volatility of stock index options increased, and the at - the - money IV of the current - month SSE 300 Index reached around 18%. One can try short - term double - selling to reduce volatility [3][10] II. Fundamental Elements Review and Market Outlook 1. The Central Bank Conducted a Net Withdrawal of 41.49 Billion Yuan in the Open Market Last Week - In terms of inter - bank liquidity, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 41.49 billion yuan in the open market last week, with 71.18 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 112.67 billion yuan in reverse repurchase maturities. Inter - bank interest rates changed little, with Shibor overnight rising 8.36bp, Shibor one - week rising 2.94bp, etc. [69] 2. Short - Term Sentiment Remained Strong, and One - Sided Operations Became More Difficult - In the short term, investor sentiment remained strong. The brokerage sector related to the bull market expectation performed well. However, the rotation of sectors continued, indicating that the main line of the bull market has not been established. The market showed some fear of high prices, but the willingness of funds to enter the market was strong. It is expected that the market will oscillate at a high level this week, and one - sided trading strategies should focus on short - term long positions within the day [2][70] III. Economic Data & Financial Event Forecast 1. Macroeconomic Data Release - On August 19th (20:30), the data of new housing starts in the US in July will be released [101] 2. Key Financial Events - There are no major financial events [101]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "sideways" [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For sugar, extreme rainfall in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July has damaged local sugarcane and beets, and the potential impact on sugar production needs continuous monitoring. Summer cold - drink consumption drives seasonal growth in sugar demand. Recently, sugar imports have increased significantly due to the expanding domestic - foreign price gap, but the annual import volume is still expected to be within the forecast range [1] - For cotton, most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of blooming, and some parts of Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. According to the China Meteorological Administration, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin may face high - temperature heat damage in August. Currently, commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, which supports cotton prices [1] Group 3: Summary According to Data Tables 1. Price and Spread Data - **Foreign Market Quotes**: On August 13 - 14, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased from 16.83 dollars to 16.58 dollars, a decline of 1.49%, and the price of US cotton dropped from 67.7 dollars to 67.59 dollars, a decrease of 0.16% [3] - **Spot Prices**: From August 13 to 14, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning increased from 5970.0 to 5980.0, a rise of 0.17%, and in Kunming, it increased from 5855.0 to 5860.0, a rise of 0.09%. The cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a decline of 0.17%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged at 15050.0 [3] - **Spreads**: For sugar spreads such as SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, SR09 - 01, and for cotton spreads like CF01 - 05, CF05 - 09, CF09 - 01, most showed a downward trend from August 13 to 14, 2025. For example, SR01 - 05 decreased from 51.0 to 40.0, a decline of 21.57%, and CF01 - 05 decreased from 40.0 to 30.0, a decline of 25.00% [3] - **Basis**: For sugar basis (01, 05, 09) and cotton basis (01, 05, 09), the changes were mixed. For instance, the sugar 01 basis increased from 198.0 to 201.0, a rise of 1.52%, while the cotton 09 basis decreased from 1358.0 to 1339.0, a decline of 1.40% [3] 2. Other Data - **Import Price**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 79.95 from August 13 to 14, 2025 [3] - **Profit Space**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1454.0 from August 13 to 14, 2025 [3] - **Options**: The implied volatility of SR601C5700 is 0.0872, and its underlying futures is SR601 with a historical volatility of 6.26. The implied volatility of CF601C14200 is 0.1134, and its underlying futures is CF601 with a historical volatility of 5.6 [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: From August 13 to 14, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 17529.0 to 17284.0, a decline of 1.40%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 8006.0 to 7922.0, a decline of 1.05% [3] Group 4: Company Information - CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business, wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has memberships in multiple futures exchanges and is an observer of relevant industry associations [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways" rating for both sugar and cotton [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For sugar, extreme rainfall in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may affect sugarcane and beet crops, and continuous monitoring of its impact on sugar production is needed. Summer cold drink consumption drives seasonal growth in sugar demand. Recently, sugar imports have increased significantly due to the expanding domestic - foreign price gap, but the annual import volume is still expected to be within the forecast range [1] - For cotton, most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin faces the risk of heat damage. Currently, commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, providing some support for cotton prices [1] Group 3: Data Summary 1. Price and Spread Data - **Foreign Market Quotes**: From August 12 to 13, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 0.71% from 16.95 to 16.83 dollars, and the price of US cotton decreased by 1.08% from 68.44 to 67.7 dollars [3] - **Spot Prices**: From August 12 to 13, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning increased by 0.17% from 5960.0 to 5970.0, and in Kunming it increased by 0.69% from 5815.0 to 5855.0. The cotton index 328 decreased slightly by 0.07% from 3281 to 3280, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged at 15050.0 [3] - **Spreads**: There were significant changes in various sugar and cotton spreads from August 12 to 13, 2025. For example, SR01 - 05 increased by 8.51%, SR05 - 09 decreased by 20.00%, and CF01 - 05 decreased by 42.86% [3] 2. Other Data - **Import Prices**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 78.2 from August 12 to 13, 2025 [3] - **Profit Margins**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1515.0 from August 12 to 13, 2025 [3] - **Options**: The implied volatilities of SR601C5700, SR601P5700, CF601C14200, and CF601P14200 are 0.0894, 0.0914, 0.1116, and 0.1113 respectively [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: From August 12 to 13, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1.81% from 17853.0 to 17529.0, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 1.00% from 8087.0 to 8006.0 [3] Group 4: Company Information - CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business, wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has obtained the futures trading consulting business qualification and is a comprehensive settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, etc. [2][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the stock index has been rising hesitantly. Although the technical pressure has been increasing, the actual retracement is far less than expected, indicating that the short - term market sentiment remains strong. This week, this strong state is expected to continue, but to break through the current oscillatory pattern, new macro - level support is needed [3] - The rotation of sectors is still significant. Last week, the national defense and military industry concepts soared, while the anti - involution direction faded. In the pre - emptive market without performance realization, investors need to pay attention to the previous high pressure [3] - In August, the positive factors are expected to be limited, including the policy vacuum period after the Politburo meeting and the risk of downward revision of expectations due to the intensive release of corporate semi - annual reports. The general upward trend of the stock index is the market's main theme, but in the short term, the safety cushion for unilateral long positions has shrunk, and there is an expected phased retracement in August. It is recommended to take short - term long positions intraday, and subsequent sharp drops are opportunities to re - enter the market for long positions [3] 3. Summary of Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Stock Market Information - Sino - US issued the "Joint Statement of the Sino - US Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks". The US promised to continue adjusting the measures of imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, and both sides continued to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days starting from August 12 [4] - Three departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", clarifying that from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026, eligible personal consumption loans can enjoy fiscal interest subsidies [4] 3.2 Stock Index盘面 Review - **Market Tracking**: In the previous trading day, the A - share market oscillated upwards. Among the four major indices, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 0.61%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.52%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.41%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.28%. In terms of sectors, motorcycles (+3.32%) and computer hardware (+2.18%) led the gains, while aerospace and military industry (-1.26%) and chemical fiber industry (-1.18%) lagged. More than 2,000 stocks rose, and 60 stocks hit the daily limit, with a relatively poor profit - making effect [4] - **Technical Tracking**: The daily and weekly lines maintain an upward trend, while the monthly line remains in an oscillatory market. Among different varieties, the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have performed strongly in recent days, while the Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 show signs of marginal weakening [4] - **Fund Flow**: The trading volume of the A - share market slightly increased to 1.9 trillion yuan, indicating a moderately positive trading sentiment [4] 3.3 Core Logic Summary - **Futures Operation**: The short - term sentiment is strong, but the safety cushion for long positions has shrunk. It is recommended to take short - term long positions intraday or wait and see. For the IH - IM spread, a left - hand layout can be made in advance [3] - **Options Operation**: The implied volatility of stock index options has flattened, with the at - the - money IV of the CSI 300 in the current month fluctuating between 12 - 13%. During the narrow - range oscillation period, the cost - effectiveness of participating in options is not high. It is recommended to wait and see for the second wave of enhanced volatility [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Report's Core View - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall recently in the Inner Mongolia production area, making it prone to pests and diseases, which require early prevention. Internationally, it is necessary to continue to monitor the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will remain high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. Data Summary Price Data - **External Market Quotes**: On August 11 - 12, 2025, the price of US sugar was $16.54, with a 0.00% change; the price of US cotton was $66.84, with a 0.00% change [3]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning remained at 5960.0, with a 0.00% change; the price of sugar in Kunming decreased from 5825.0 to 5815.0, a - 0.17% change; the cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a - 0.11% change; the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained at 15050.0, with a 0.00% change [3]. Spread Data - **Sugar Spreads**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, SR01 - 05 increased by 11.90%, SR05 - 09 increased by - 1.36%, and SR09 - 01 decreased by - 6.67% [3]. - **Cotton Spreads**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, CF01 - 05 increased by 40.00%, CF05 - 09 increased by 16.67%, and CF09 - 01 increased by 22.50% [3]. Basis Data - **Sugar Basis**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, the basis of sugar 01 decreased by - 17.86%, the basis of sugar 05 decreased by - 13.61%, and the basis of sugar 09 decreased by - 25.85% [3]. - **Cotton Basis**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, the basis of cotton 01 decreased by - 6.56%, the basis of cotton 05 decreased by - 4.81%, and the basis of cotton 09 decreased by - 2.63% [3]. Import Price and Profit Data - **Import Price**: On August 11 - 12, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA was 78.0, with a 0.00% change [3]. - **Profit Space**: On August 11 - 12, 2025, the sugar import profit was 1515.0, with a 0.00% change [3]. Option and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Options**: For options such as SR601C5600, SR601P5600, CF601C14000, and CF601P14000, the implied volatility and relevant futures contract information are provided [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by - 2.12%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by - 1.04% [3]. Company Information - The report is produced by Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., which is a limited liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has various memberships in multiple futures exchanges [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar is affected by consecutive droughts from autumn to spring, with unfavorable emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi. Beet growth is generally good, but there is a risk of pests and diseases in Inner Mongolia due to excessive rainfall. Attention should be paid to Brazil's sugar production progress and Northern Hemisphere sugar crop growth [1]. - Most cotton - growing areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with growth 4 - 7 days ahead of previous years. High - temperature in Xinjiang in July poses a heat - damage risk. Cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market is in a slack season, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Weather changes and tariff uncertainties need to be monitored [1]. Data Summary 1. Price Changes - **Foreign Market Quotes**: From August 10 to August 11, 2025, the price of US sugar increased by 1.66% from 16.27 to 16.54 dollars, and the price of US cotton increased by 0.30% from 66.64 to 66.84 dollars [3]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 8 to August 11, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning increased by 0.17% from 5950.0 to 5960.0, while the price in Kunming remained unchanged. The cotton index 328 decreased by 0.11% from 3281 to 3280, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 0.33% from 15100.0 to 15050.0 [3]. 2. Spread Changes - **Sugar Spread**: From August 10 to August 11, 2025, SR01 - 05 decreased by 2.33%, SR05 - 09 decreased by 2.00%, and SR09 - 01 decreased by 1.87% [3]. - **Cotton Spread**: CF05 - 09 increased by 36.36%, and CF09 - 01 increased by 25.00%, while CF01 - 05 remained unchanged [3]. 3. Basis Changes - **Sugar Basis**: From August 8 to August 11, 2025, the basis of sugar 01 remained unchanged, the basis of sugar 05 decreased by 0.34%, and the basis of sugar 09 increased by 1.38% [3]. - **Cotton Basis**: The basis of cotton 01 decreased by 7.04%, the basis of cotton 05 decreased by 6.79%, and the basis of cotton 09 decreased by 3.71% [3]. 4. Import Price and Profit - The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged from August 8 to August 11, 2025, and the sugar import profit also remained unchanged [3]. 5. Option Volatility - For SR601C5600, the implied volatility is 0.0856, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying SR601 is 5.86. For CF601C13600, the implied volatility is 0.107, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying CF601 is 5.03 [3]. 6. Warehouse Receipts - From August 8 to August 11, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1.64% from 18545.0 to 18240.0, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.97% from 8252.0 to 8172.0 [3] Company Information - Xinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business, wholly - owned by Xinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has multiple memberships and observer statuses in relevant institutions [8].