期货研究报告 宏观金融研究 [Table_ReportType] 股指日报 走势评级： 短期-震荡 中短期-看涨 宋婧琪 从业资格证号：F03100886 投资咨询证号：Z0021165 联系电话：0571-28132632 邮箱：songjingqi@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 指数高位分歧，进入短期筑顶阶段 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 08 月 27 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 宏观股市信息： 股指盘面回顾： 核心逻辑小结： 近期牛市氛围不断升温推动股指保持强势运行，资金试图挖掘各类牛市线 索。上周股指的上涨主要围绕 1）杰克逊霍尔会议释放的鸽派信号、2）居民 存款向股市迁移的预期发酵展开。我们认为，当前 A 股已进入赚钱效应的正 向循环阶段，中长期趋势上暂无重大风险扰动，可继续以做多思路对待。需 要注意的是，短期杠杆资金攀升令慢牛行情加速演化，而从 ETF 份额回落、 期权隐含波动率放大有限、板块轮动速度偏快等现象来看，投资者间的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core View of the Report - The consumption of sugar has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently. However, the total annual import volume is still expected to be within the anticipated range. The extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may have an impact on sugar production, and continuous monitoring is required. [1][3] - The cotton in most parts of the country is in the peak flowering period, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening and flocculation stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin is at high risk of heat damage. Currently, the commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, so the cotton price is supported at the bottom. [1][3] - The recommended strategy is to mainly wait and see. [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5,950 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5,860 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15,100 yuan. [1] Disk - US sugar closed at 16.42, with a change of 0.18%. US cotton closed at 66.67, with a change of - 1.05%. [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: The demand for sugar has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets. [1] - Cotton: In August, the temperature in the cotton - growing areas of Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin is high and the precipitation is low, so the risk of heat damage to cotton is relatively high. Currently, the commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, so the cotton price has bottom support. [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 15,315, with a change of - 0.45%. Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 6,977, with a change of - 1.79%. [2] Data Quick View Outer - Market Quotes - US sugar: On August 25, 2025, it was 16.39 dollars, and on August 26, 2025, it was 16.42 dollars, with a change of 0.18%. - US cotton: On August 25, 2025, it was 67.38 dollars, and on August 26, 2025, it was 66.67 dollars, with a change of - 1.05%. [4] Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning): On August 25, 2025, it was 5,970 yuan, and on August 26, 2025, it was 5,950 yuan, with a change of - 0.34%. - Sugar (Kunming): On August 25, 2025, it was 5,860 yuan, and on August 26, 2025, it was 5,860 yuan, with a change of 0.00%. - Cotton Index 328: On August 25, 2025, it was 3,281, and on August 26, 2025, it was 3,280, with a change of 0.65%. - Cotton (Xinjiang): On August 25, 2025, it was 15,100 yuan, and on August 26, 2025, it was 15,100 yuan, with a change of 0.00%. [4] Spread Quick View - SR01 - 05: On August 25, 2025, it was 42.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 33.0, with a change of - 21.43%. - SR05 - 09: On August 25, 2025, it was - 74.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was - 79.0, with a change of 6.76%. - SR09 - 01: On August 25, 2025, it was 32.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 46.0, with a change of 43.75%. - CF01 - 05: On August 25, 2025, it was 45.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 45.0, with a change of 0.00%. - CF05 - 09: On August 25, 2025, it was 275.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 275.0, with a change of 0.00%. - CF09 - 01: On August 25, 2025, it was - 320.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was - 320.0, with a change of 0.00%. - Sugar 01 basis: On August 25, 2025, it was 172.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 228.0, with a change of 32.56%. - Sugar 05 basis: On August 25, 2025, it was 214.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 261.0, with a change of 21.96%. - Sugar 09 basis: On August 25, 2025, it was 140.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 182.0, with a change of 30.00%. - Cotton 01 basis: On August 25, 2025, it was 1,115.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 1,234.0, with a change of 10.67%. - Cotton 05 basis: On August 25, 2025, it was 1,160.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 1,279.0, with a change of 10.26%. - Cotton 09 basis: On August 25, 2025, it was 1,435.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 1,554.0, with a change of 8.29%. [4] Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA: On August 25, 2025, it was 78.9, and on August 26, 2025, it was 78.9, with a change of 0.00%. [4] Profit Margins - Sugar import profit: On August 25, 2025, it was 1,515.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 1,515.0, with a change of 0.00%. [4] Options - SR601C5600: Implied volatility is 0.0865, and the futures underlying is SR601, with a historical volatility of 6.38. - SR601P5600: Implied volatility is 0.0863. - CF601C14000: Implied volatility is 0.1046, and the futures underlying is CF601, with a historical volatility of 5.63. - CF601P14000: Implied volatility is 0.1048. [4] Inventory Warehouse Receipts (sheets) - Sugar: On August 25, 2025, it was 15,385.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 15,315.0, with a change of - 0.45%. - Cotton: On August 25, 2025, it was 7,104.0, and on August 26, 2025, it was 6,977.0, with a change of - 1.79%. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for sugar is "Sideways" [1]. - The investment rating for cotton is "Sideways" [1]. Core Viewpoints - The strengthening US dollar suppresses commodity prices, leading to short - term adjustments in soft commodities [1]. - For sugar, seasonal consumption growth is driven by summer cold - drink demand, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets. However, the total annual import volume is still expected to be within the forecast range. Extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may affect sugar production, and continuous monitoring is required [1][3]. - For cotton, most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, with some areas in Xinjiang entering the boll - opening and flocculation stage, and the overall growth progress is ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin faces a high risk of heat damage. With the continuous decline of commercial cotton inventory and the approaching peak season of cotton textile, cotton prices are supported [1][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Information - The spot price of sugar in Nanning is 5970.0 yuan, in Kunming is 5860.0 yuan, and the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang is 15100.0 yuan [1]. Market - The closing price of US sugar is 16.39, with a change of - 0.30%. The closing price of US cotton is 67.38, with a change of - 0.91% [1]. Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by summer cold - drink demand, sugar consumption has a seasonal recovery. Due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets, recent sugar imports have increased significantly [1]. - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increase the risk of heat damage to cotton. The continuous decline of commercial cotton inventory and the approaching peak season of cotton textile provide support for cotton prices [1]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts is 15385.0, with a change of - 1.09%. The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts is 7104.0, with a change of - 1.31% [2]. Data Overview - **Foreign Market Quotes**: On August 25, 2025, the price of US sugar was 16.39 dollars, down 0.30% from the previous day; the price of US cotton was 67.38 dollars, down 0.91% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 22 to 25, 2025, the price of Nanning sugar remained unchanged at 5970.0 yuan; the price of Kunming sugar rose from 5855.0 yuan to 5860.0 yuan, an increase of 0.09%; the cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a decrease of 0.05%; the price of Xinjiang cotton rose from 15050.0 yuan to 15100.0 yuan, an increase of 0.33% [4]. - **Price Difference Overview**: From August 24 to 25, 2025, the price differences of SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, SR09 - 01, CF01 - 05, CF05 - 09, and CF09 - 01 all changed to varying degrees, with the largest increase of 22.11% and the largest decrease of 42.86%. The basis of sugar and cotton contracts also changed, with the largest increase of 8.53% and the largest decrease of 8.08% [4]. - **Import Prices**: From August 22 to 25, 2025, the price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 78.9 [4]. - **Profit Margins**: From August 22 to 25, 2025, the profit from sugar imports remained unchanged at 1515.0 [4]. - **Options**: For options such as SR601C5700, SR601P5700, CF601C14200, and CF601P14200, the implied volatility and historical volatility of the underlying futures are provided [4]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: From August 22 to 25, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 15555.0 to 15385.0, a decrease of 1.09%; the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 7198.0 to 7104.0, a decrease of 1.31% [4]. Strategy Suggestion - It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The consumption of sugar has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks. The import of sugar has increased significantly recently due to the widening price difference between domestic and international markets, but the total annual import volume is still expected to be within the anticipated range. However, in July, Yunnan and Inner Mongolia experienced extreme precipitation, which may have affected the sugar cane and sugar beet crops, and the potential impact on sugar production needs continuous monitoring [1][2]. - Most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin is at high risk of heat damage due to high temperatures and low precipitation. Currently, the commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, so the cotton price is supported [1][2]. - The recommended strategy is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Data on Commodity Prices and Fluctuations - **External Market Quotes**: On August 23 - 24, 2025, the price of US sugar was 16.44 dollars with a 0.00% change, and the price of US cotton was 68.0 dollars with a 0.00% change [3]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 21 - 22, 2025, the price of Nanning sugar was 5970.0 yuan with a 0.00% change, the price of Kunming sugar was 5855.0 yuan with a 0.00% change, the cotton index 328 changed from 3281 to 3280 with a 0.22% change, and the price of Xinjiang cotton changed from 15100.0 yuan to 15050.0 yuan with a - 0.33% change [3]. - **Price Spreads**: From August 23 - 24, 2025, all the price spreads of SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, SR09 - 01, CF01 - 05, CF05 - 09, CF09 - 01, and the basis of sugar and cotton contracts had a 0.00% change [3]. - **Import Prices**: From August 21 - 22, 2025, the price of cotton cotlookA was 78.9 with a 0.00% change [3]. - **Profit Margins**: From August 21 - 22, 2025, the sugar import profit was 1515.0 with a 0.00% change [3]. - **Options**: For options such as SR601C5700, SR601P5700, CF601C14000, and CF601P14000, the implied volatility and historical volatility data are provided [3]. - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: From August 21 - 22, 2025, the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 15751.0 to 15555.0 with a - 1.24% change, and the number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 7335.0 to 7198.0 with a - 1.87% change [1][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for sugar is "sideways", and for cotton is also "sideways" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Sugar consumption has a seasonal uptick due to summer cold - drink demand, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening domestic - foreign price gap. However, the overall annual import volume is still expected to be within the anticipated range. Extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may affect sugar production, and continuous monitoring is required. - Cotton is at risk of heat damage in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August due to high temperatures and low precipitation. Cotton commercial inventory is decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, cotton prices are supported at the bottom. The overall strategy recommendation is to wait and see [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Market Information - Spot prices: Nanning sugar spot price is 5970.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5855.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15100.0 yuan [1] - Futures closing prices and changes: U.S. sugar closed at 16.36, with a change of - 1.33%; U.S. cotton closed at 67.47, with a change of - 0.09% [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand - Sugar: Summer cold - drink demand drives seasonal recovery in sugar consumption. The widening domestic - foreign price gap has led to a significant increase in recent sugar imports [1] - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increase the risk of heat damage to cotton. Current cotton commercial inventory is decreasing, and the upcoming cotton textile peak season provides support for cotton prices [1] 3.3 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 15751.0, with a change of - 3.03%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 7335.0, with a change of - 1.61% [2] 3.4 Data Quick View - **Futures price changes**: U.S. sugar decreased from 16.58 to 16.36 (-1.33%), and U.S. cotton decreased from 67.53 to 67.47 (-0.09%) - **Spot price changes**: Nanning and Kunming sugar spot prices remained unchanged; the cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280 (-0.20%), and Xinjiang cotton spot price remained unchanged - **Spread changes**: For example, SR01 - 05 decreased from 43.0 to 42.0 (-2.33%), and CF01 - 05 increased from 15.0 to 25.0 (66.67%) - **Import price**: Cotton cotlookA remained at 78.95 - **Profit margin**: Sugar import profit remained at 1565.0 - **Options**: For SR601C5700, implied volatility is 0.08, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying is 6.1; for CF601C14000, implied volatility is 0.105, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying is 5.61 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating of the stock index is "volatile" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, investor sentiment remains strong, and sectors such as securities brokers related to bull - market expectations have performed well. However, the main line of the bull market has not been established, and it will take time to form a structural slow - bull market. The market has shown some fear of high prices, but the willingness of funds to enter the market is strong. The callback depth and space are limited, and the profit margin of unilateral operations is relatively narrow. It is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate at a high level this week [3]. - For futures operations, short - term long within a day is advisable, and it is an opportunity to lay out long - term long orders when there is a sharp decline. There is still an expectation of regression for IH - IM, and it is still in the left - hand trading area in the short term, with preset stop - profit and stop - loss recommended. For option operations, the implied volatility of stock index options rebounded after hitting the bottom yesterday. This week, one can try short - term double - selling to narrow the volatility, with preset stop - profit and stop - loss. Investors with a conservative preference can wait for the volatility of CSI 300 options to rise to 20% before intervening [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Stock Market Information - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that child - rearing subsidies issued in accordance with the child - rearing subsidy system are exempt from personal income tax, effective January 1, 2025 [4]. - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with only two opposing. There are differences among Fed officials regarding the risks of inflation, employment, and the impact of tariffs on inflation, but most think the risk of rising inflation is higher than the risk of declining employment [4]. 3.2 Stock Index盘面 Review - **Market Performance**: In the previous trading day, the A - share market opened lower and closed higher. Among the four major indexes, the Shanghai 50 Index rose 1.23%, the CSI 300 Index rose 1.14%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.09%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.86%. In terms of sectors, computer hardware (+3.59%) and petrochemicals (+3.54%) led the gains, while highways (-0.41%) and biotechnology (-0.15%) lagged. More than 3,600 stocks rose, and 104 stocks hit the daily limit, indicating a good profit - making effect [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily and weekly lines of the four major stock indexes maintain an upward trend, and they have generally broken through the 2023 high, showing a strong technical pattern [4]. - **Fund Flow**: The trading volume of the A - share market slightly declined to around 2.4 trillion yuan, indicating a relatively high trading enthusiasm [4]. 3.3 Core Logic Summary - Short - term investor sentiment is strong, and sectors related to bull - market expectations have performed well. However, the main line of the bull market is not clear, and the market shows fear of high prices. Although the short - term sentiment is still optimistic, the callback space is limited, and the profit margin of unilateral operations is narrow. It is expected that the market will fluctuate at a high level this week [3]. 3.4 Operation Suggestions - **Futures**: Short - term long within a day is advisable, and it is an opportunity to lay out long - term long orders when there is a sharp decline. For IH - IM, there is an expectation of regression, and it is in the left - hand trading area in the short term, with preset stop - profit and stop - loss recommended [3]. - **Options**: Try short - term double - selling to narrow the volatility this week, with preset stop - profit and stop - loss. Conservative investors can wait for the volatility of CSI 300 options to rise to 20% before intervening [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - For sugar, extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may affect sugar production, while summer cold - drink consumption boosts seasonal demand. Sugar imports have recently increased significantly due to the expanding price difference between domestic and foreign markets, but the annual import volume is expected to remain within the expected range [1] - For cotton, most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening stage. The growth progress is earlier than usual. High - temperature and low - precipitation conditions in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August may increase the risk of heat damage to cotton. The decreasing commercial inventory and the upcoming peak season for cotton textile support cotton prices [1] Data Summary Price Data - **Foreign Futures Prices**: On August 18 - 19, 2025, the price of US sugar rose from $16.24 to $16.3, a 0.37% increase; the price of US cotton fell from $67.84 to $67.53, a 0.46% decrease [3] - **Spot Prices**: From August 18 to 19, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged; the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.06%, and the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged [3] Spread Data - **Sugar Spreads**: From August 18 to 19, 2025, SR01 - 05 decreased by 8.70%, SR05 - 09 decreased by 11.82%, SR09 - 01 decreased by 14.06%, and the basis of sugar contracts all increased to varying degrees [3] - **Cotton Spreads**: From August 18 to 19, 2025, CF01 - 05 decreased by 50.00%, CF05 - 09 increased by 1.96%, CF09 - 01 decreased by 5.08%, and the basis of cotton contracts all increased to varying degrees [3] Import - Related Data - **Import Price**: From August 18 to 19, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA increased by 0.19% [3] - **Profit Space**: From August 18 to 19, 2025, the sugar import profit remained unchanged [3] Option Data - For sugar option SR601C5700, the implied volatility is 0.083, and the historical volatility of the underlying futures SR601 is 6.19; for SR601P5700, the implied volatility is 0.0844. For cotton option CF601C14000, the implied volatility is 0.1017, and the historical volatility of the underlying futures CF601 is 5.61; for CF601P14000, the implied volatility is 0.1056 [3] Inventory Data - From August 18 to 19, 2025, the number of sugar inventory warrants decreased by 2.63%, and the number of cotton inventory warrants decreased by 2.14% [3] Company Information - Xinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business, wholly - owned by Xinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has various memberships in multiple exchanges and associations [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "Shock" [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - From July, extreme rainfall in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia affected local sugarcane and sugar beet crops, and the potential impact on sugar production needs continuous monitoring. Summer cold - drink consumption drives seasonal growth in sugar demand. Although recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets, the annual import volume is still expected to be within the forecast range [1] - Most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin faces a high risk of heat damage due to high temperatures and insufficient precipitation. Currently, commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, which supports cotton prices [1] Group 3: Summary of Data 1. Price Changes - From August 17 - 18, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 1.40% to $16.24, and the price of US cotton increased by 0.53% to $67.84. Among domestic spot prices, the price of Nanning sugar remained unchanged at 5980 yuan, Kunming sugar decreased by 0.09% to 5855 yuan, the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.12% to 3280, and Xinjiang cotton increased by 0.33% to 15100 yuan [3] 2. Spread Changes - From August 17 - 18, 2025, SR01 - 05 increased by 9.52% to 46, SR05 - 09 increased by 6.78% to - 110, SR09 - 01 decreased by 15.79% to 64, CF01 - 05 increased by 33.33% to 40, CF05 - 09 remained unchanged at 255, and CF09 - 01 decreased by 3.51% to - 295. The basis of sugar 01 decreased by 6.63% to 183, sugar 05 decreased by 3.78% to 229, sugar 09 decreased by 0.83% to 119, cotton 01 increased by 1.19% to 1109, cotton 05 increased by 2.04% to 1149, and cotton 09 increased by 1.67% to 1404 [3] 3. Import Price and Profit Changes - From August 15 - 18, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA decreased by 0.31% to 79.15, and the sugar import profit increased by 2.79% to 1565 [3] 4. Option Information - For options, the implied volatility of SR601C5700 is 0.0832 with a futures underlying of SR601 and a historical volatility of 6.18; the implied volatility of SR601P5700 is 0.084. The implied volatility of CF601C14200 is 0.1094 with a futures underlying of CF601 and a historical volatility of 5.61; the implied volatility of CF601P14200 is 0.1099 [3] 5. Warehouse Receipt Changes - From August 15 - 18, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1.01% to 16931, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.86% to 7762 [3] Group 4: Company Information - Xinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Xinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It is a comprehensive settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, and a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - For sugar, since July, extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia has affected local sugarcane and sugar beet crops, and the potential impact on sugar production needs continuous monitoring. Summer cold drink consumption drives a seasonal increase in sugar demand. Recently, sugar imports have climbed significantly due to the widening domestic - foreign price gap, but the annual import volume is still expected to be within the forecast range [1]. - For cotton, most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of blooming, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening and flocculation stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin faces a high risk of heat damage due to high temperatures and insufficient precipitation. Currently, commercial cotton inventories are declining, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, which supports cotton prices [1]. Data Overview 1. Price Changes - **Foreign Market Quotes**: From August 17 to 18, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased from 16.47 dollars to 16.24 dollars, a decline of 1.40%, while the price of US cotton increased from 67.48 dollars to 67.84 dollars, a rise of 0.53% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 15 to 18, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning remained unchanged at 5980.0 yuan, the price in Kunming decreased from 5860.0 yuan to 5855.0 yuan, a decline of 0.09%. The cotton index 328 decreased slightly from 3281 to 3280, a decline of 0.12%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang increased from 15050.0 yuan to 15100.0 yuan, a rise of 0.33% [3]. 2. Spread Changes - **Sugar Spreads**: From August 17 to 18, 2025, SR01 - 05 increased from 42.0 to 46.0, a rise of 9.52%; SR05 - 09 increased from - 118.0 to - 110.0, a decline of 6.78%; SR09 - 01 decreased from 76.0 to 64.0, a decline of 15.79% [3]. - **Cotton Spreads**: CF01 - 05 increased from 30.0 to 40.0, a rise of 33.33%; CF05 - 09 remained unchanged at 255.0; CF09 - 01 decreased from - 285.0 to - 295.0, a decline of 3.51% [3]. 3. Basis Changes - **Sugar Basis**: From August 15 to 18, 2025, the basis of sugar 01 decreased from 196.0 to 183.0, a decline of 6.63%; the basis of sugar 05 decreased from 238.0 to 229.0, a decline of 3.78%; the basis of sugar 09 decreased from 120.0 to 119.0, a decline of 0.83% [3]. - **Cotton Basis**: The basis of cotton 01 increased from 1096.0 to 1109.0, a rise of 1.19%; the basis of cotton 05 increased from 1126.0 to 1149.0, a rise of 2.04%; the basis of cotton 09 increased from 1381.0 to 1404.0, a rise of 1.67% [3]. 4. Import Price and Profit - **Import Price**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 79.4 from August 15 to 18, 2025 [3]. - **Profit Space**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1495.0 from August 15 to 18, 2025 [3]. 5. Option Information - For the SR601C5700 option, the implied volatility is 0.0832, and the historical volatility of the underlying futures SR601 is 6.18. For the SR601P5700 option, the implied volatility is 0.084. For the CF601C14200 option, the implied volatility is 0.1094, and the historical volatility of the underlying futures CF601 is 5.61. For the CF601P14200 option, the implied volatility is 0.1099 [3]. 6. Warehouse Receipt Changes - From August 15 to 18, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 17104.0 to 16931.0, a decline of 1.01%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 7829.0 to 7762.0, a decline of 0.86% [3] Company Information - The report is issued by CINDA Futures Co., Ltd., located at the 19 - 20th floors of Tianren Building, Qianjiang Century City, Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou, with a postal code of 311200. It is a wholly - owned subsidiary of CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It is a large - scale and high - reputation futures company in China, holding various memberships in multiple exchanges and associations [1][2][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bull market sentiment continued to ferment last week, with the stock index hitting a new high for the year. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3,700 - point mark during the week, and the small - cap growth style outperformed. The overseas market sentiment returned to caution, and the US stock market was basically flat. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level this week, and the one - sided trading strategy should focus on short - term long positions within the day [1][2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Last Week's Stock Index Operation Review 1. Bull Market Atmosphere Continued to Ferment, and A - shares Reached a New High - The bull market atmosphere continued to ferment last week, and the stock index hit a new high for the year. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3,700 points. Among the four broad - based indexes, CSI 1000 (+4.09%) > CSI 500 (+3.88%) > SSE 50 (+2.37%) > SSE 50 (+1.57%). Overseas, the international market sentiment became cautious, and US stocks were basically flat, with the Nasdaq rising 0.81% [1][8] 2. Communications and Electronics Led the Rise, and Trading Volume Increased Rapidly - From the perspective of Shenwan's primary industry classification, most sectors rose last week. Communications (+7.66%) and electronics (+7.02%) led the gains, while banks (-3.19%) and steel (-2.04%) lagged. The A - share trading volume increased rapidly and exceeded 2 trillion at the end of the week [2][9] 3. The Premium of Stock Index Futures Narrowed Rapidly, and the Option Volatility Increased Rapidly - In the futures market, the basis of each stock index futures (spot - futures) declined last week. In operation, short - term long positions within the day are appropriate, and it is an opportunity to lay out long - term long positions when there is a sharp decline. In the options market, the implied volatility of stock index options increased, and the at - the - money IV of the current - month SSE 300 Index reached around 18%. One can try short - term double - selling to reduce volatility [3][10] II. Fundamental Elements Review and Market Outlook 1. The Central Bank Conducted a Net Withdrawal of 41.49 Billion Yuan in the Open Market Last Week - In terms of inter - bank liquidity, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 41.49 billion yuan in the open market last week, with 71.18 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 112.67 billion yuan in reverse repurchase maturities. Inter - bank interest rates changed little, with Shibor overnight rising 8.36bp, Shibor one - week rising 2.94bp, etc. [69] 2. Short - Term Sentiment Remained Strong, and One - Sided Operations Became More Difficult - In the short term, investor sentiment remained strong. The brokerage sector related to the bull market expectation performed well. However, the rotation of sectors continued, indicating that the main line of the bull market has not been established. The market showed some fear of high prices, but the willingness of funds to enter the market was strong. It is expected that the market will oscillate at a high level this week, and one - sided trading strategies should focus on short - term long positions within the day [2][70] III. Economic Data & Financial Event Forecast 1. Macroeconomic Data Release - On August 19th (20:30), the data of new housing starts in the US in July will be released [101] 2. Key Financial Events - There are no major financial events [101]