1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oscillation - Medium - short - term: Bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the stock index market rose first and then fell. After the holiday, the capital enthusiasm recovered, but the high - level divergence continued. The growth styles such as the ChiNext and the Science and Technology Innovation Board declined, and the four major broad - based indexes closed slightly down. - The US announced a 100% new tariff on Chinese imported goods last Friday, which will transmit bearish sentiment to the domestic A - share market this week. High - position stocks and the ChiNext and Science and Technology Innovation Board with front - running characteristics are expected to continue the downward trend, and small - cap styles such as the CSI 1000 need key defense. However, the direct impact of overseas sentiment transmission on the market is limited, and the indirect impact is more short - term and phased. In the long - term, market adjustments can be regarded as a new layout opportunity. [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Last Week's Stock Index Operation Situation 3.1.1 Trade Tensions Resurfaced, and Most Global Stock Indexes Fell - The four major broad - based indexes in the domestic stock index market closed slightly down last week. The weekly gains and losses of the four major stock indexes were: CSI 500 (- 0.19%) > SSE 50 (- 0.47%) > CSI 300 (- 0.51%) > CSI 1000 (- 0.54%). - Overseas, affected by the US government shutdown and the new 100% tariff on Chinese imports, the international risk - aversion sentiment generally increased last week. The VIX fear index rose 25% on Friday, and the three major US stock indexes generally fell. The Nasdaq Index dropped 3.56% on Friday and 2.53% for the week. [1][8] 3.1.2 Non - ferrous Metals and Coal Led the Gains, and the Trading Volume Rebounded Compared with Before the National Day - From the performance of the Shenwan primary industry classification, sectors were significantly differentiated last week. Non - ferrous metals (+ 4.44%) and coal (+ 4.41%) led the gains, while media (- 3.83%) and electronics (- 2.63%) lagged behind. The growth style adjusted, and the cycle and stable styles were relatively strong. - In terms of capital, the A - share trading volume rebounded last week, fluctuating between 2.5 - 2.6 trillion yuan during the week, and the capital entry willingness remained at a relatively strong historical level. [2][9] 3.1.3 The Basis of Stock Index Futures Changed Little, and the Option Volatility Fell Rapidly - In the futures market, the basis (spot - futures) of each stock index futures changed little last week. The far - month discounts of IC and IM slightly expanded compared with before the holiday, while IF and IH basically remained unchanged. The sentiment in the derivatives market was more cautious than that in the spot market. - In the options market, the implied volatility of stock index options fell last week. After the long - holiday effect ended, the average IV of the CSI 300 current - month contract reached the 15 - 16% level, which was at a relatively low historical level. [10] 3.2 Fundamental Elements and Outlook for the Future 3.2.1 The Central Bank Conducted a Net Withdrawal of 152.63 Billion Yuan in the Open Market Last Week - In terms of inter - bank liquidity, the central bank achieved a net withdrawal of 152.63 billion yuan in the open market last week, with open - market reverse repurchase operations of 113.7 billion yuan and a cumulative reverse repurchase maturity amount of 266.33 billion yuan. - In terms of inter - bank interest rates, interest rates at various tenors generally declined last week. The overnight Shibor decreased by 6.50bp, the one - week Shibor decreased by 0.20bp, the two - week Shibor decreased by 22.00bp, R001 decreased by 21.57bp, R007 decreased by 19.98bp, and R014 decreased by 18.49bp. [70] 3.2.2 The Tariff Shock Resurfaced, but the Impact is Expected to be Weaker than in April - The US announced a 100% new tariff on Chinese imported goods last Friday, which led to a spread of panic in the international market. For the A - share market, bearish sentiment is expected to spread this week. High - position stocks and the ChiNext and Science and Technology Innovation Board are expected to continue to decline, and small - cap styles need key defense. However, the direct impact of overseas sentiment on the A - share market is limited. - Futures operation: If there are unclosed long - term trend orders, short positions can be opened on Monday for hedging or temporarily exit the market for observation. For speculators, if the market falls this week, there may be rebound opportunities near the 20 - day moving average and the position on September 4th, and intraday long positions can be used for short - term trading based on these two points. - Options operation: It is very likely that the volatility will increase this week, but the increase is expected to be smaller than that in early April. Short - term participation in buying far - month CSI 1000 put options is recommended, and exit the market in time if there is a profit during the week. For SSE 50 and CSI 300 options, it is recommended to wait for the volatility to rise before entering the double - selling strategy. [2][71] 3.3 Economic Data and Financial Event Forecast 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Data Release No specific data release information was provided in the report. 3.3.2 Key Financial Events - October 13 (to be determined): China's import and export volume in September. - October 13 (20:30): The number of new non - farm payrolls and the unemployment rate in the US in September. - October 15 (to be determined): Financial data such as new social financing and M2 in China in September. - October 15 (20:30): CPI and core CPI in the US in September. - October 16 (20:30): PPI and core PPI in the US in September. - October 18 (10:00): Real estate data (new construction, completion, and construction area of houses) in China in September. [102]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Views - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening price gap between domestic and foreign markets. The impact of rainfall in Inner Mongolia on sugar beet production and the growth recovery of sugarcane after typhoon damage in Guangdong and Guangxi need further attention. The strategy is to mainly wait and see [1][3] - In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was at high risk of high - temperature heat damage. The current commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and the cotton price has bottom - support as the cotton textile peak season is approaching. The cotton growth period has suitable meteorological conditions, and the picking progress in Xinjiang is 24.9% as of October 6, with the price expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan. The strategy is to mainly wait and see [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5,800.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5,810.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14,650.0 yuan [1] Disk - US sugar closed at 16.1 with a change of 0.00%. US cotton closed at 63.77 with a change of 0.00% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for summer cold drinks, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening price gap between domestic and foreign markets [1] - Cotton: In August, the temperature in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was high and precipitation was low, so cotton was at high risk of high - temperature heat damage. The current commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and the cotton price has bottom - support as the cotton textile peak season is approaching [1] Inventory Warrants - Zhengzhou sugar warrants are 8,867.0 with a change of 0.00%; Zhengzhou cotton warrants are 2,942.0 with a change of 0.00% [2] Data Quick View Outer Market Quotes - US sugar was 16.1 on October 11 and 16.1 on October 12, with a change of 0.00%. US cotton was 63.77 on October 11 and 63.77 on October 12, with a change of 0.00% [4] Spot Prices - Nanning sugar was 5,800.0 on October 10 and 5,800.0 on October 11, with a change of 0.00%. Kunming sugar was 5,820.0 on October 10 and 5,810.0 on October 11, with a change of - 0.17%. Cotton Index 328 was 3,281 on October 10 and 3,280 on October 11, with a change of 0.12%. Xinjiang cotton was 14,750.0 on October 10 and 14,650.0 on October 11, with a change of - 0.68% [4] Spread Quick View - All spreads and basis for sugar and cotton contracts from October 11 to October 12 had a change of 0.00% [4] Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA was 76.05 on October 10 and 76.05 on October 11, with a change of 0.00% [4] Profit Space - Sugar import profit was 1,459.0 on October 10 and 1,459.0 on October 11, with a change of 0.00% [4] Options - For SR601C5500, the implied volatility was 0.0827, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying SR601 was 6.63. For SR601P5500, the implied volatility was 0.0789. For CF601C13400, the implied volatility was 0.0917, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying CF601 was 7.76. For CF601P13400, the implied volatility was 0.0935 [4] Inventory Warrants - Sugar warrants were 8,867.0 on October 10 and 8,867.0 on October 11, with a change of 0.00%. Cotton warrants were 2,942.0 on October 10 and 2,942.0 on October 11, with a change of 0.00% [4] Conclusion - Sugar: In August, rainfall in Inner Mongolia was excessive, which was not conducive to the sugar accumulation and harvesting of sugar beets, and the sugar factory start - up time was postponed. The impact on sugar beet sugar production needs further tracking and evaluation. In late September and early October, sugarcane in major producing areas such as Guangdong and Guangxi was affected by typhoons, and the post - disaster growth recovery needs continuous attention [3] - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the cotton growth period were suitable, and the yield and quality in some areas were higher than expected. As of October 6, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton was flat to slightly lower year - on - year, and there is a downward risk after the centralized listing. The cotton price is expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan [3] Strategy Suggestion - Wait and see mainly [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks in summer, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The price of cotton has bottom - support as the commercial inventory is decreasing and the peak season for cotton textile is coming. The strategy suggestion is to mainly wait and see [1][3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Information - The spot price of sugar in Nanning is 5,800.0 yuan, in Kunming is 5,820.0 yuan, and the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang is 14,850.0 yuan [1] Disk Surface - The closing price of US sugar is 16.25, with a change of - 0.43%. The closing price of US cotton is 64.46, with a change of - 0.74% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the summer cold - drink demand, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and sugar imports have increased significantly due to the expanded price difference between domestic and foreign markets. Cotton: In August, the temperature in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin cotton areas was high and precipitation was low, so cotton was at a high risk of heat damage. The commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is coming, so the cotton price has bottom - support [1] Inventory Warrants - The number of Zhengzhou sugar warrants is 8,898.0, with a change of - 0.78%. The number of Zhengzhou cotton warrants is 3,030.0, with a change of - 1.66% [2] Conclusion - Sugar: The growth of sugarcane in southern producing areas is generally good, but the sugar beet production in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is affected, which delays the sugar factory's startup time. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. Cotton: Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the expected ending inventory is lowered. The overall growth of cotton is better than last year, and the demand for cotton is expected to recover during the traditional peak season, so the price has the impetus to rise [3] Data Quick View - **Outer - Market Quotes**: The price of US sugar decreased from 16.32 to 16.25, a change of - 0.43%. The price of US cotton decreased from 64.94 to 64.46, a change of - 0.74% [4] - **Spot Prices**: The price of sugar in Nanning increased from 5,780.0 to 5,800.0, a change of 0.35%. The price of sugar in Kunming increased from 5,810.0 to 5,820.0, a change of 0.17%. The cotton index 328 decreased from 3,281 to 3,280, a change of - 0.14%. The price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased from 14,950.0 to 14,850.0, a change of - 0.67% [4] - **Price Difference Quick View**: Different sugar and cotton contract price differences and basis have different degrees of change [4] - **Import Prices**: The price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 76.05, a change of 0.00% [4] - **Profit Space**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1,456.0, a change of 0.00% [4] - **Options**: Different sugar and cotton option contracts have different implied volatilities and historical volatilities [4] - **Inventory Warrants**: The number of sugar warrants decreased from 8,968.0 to 8,898.0, a change of - 0.78%. The number of cotton warrants decreased from 3,081.0 to 3,030.0, a change of - 1.66% [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Views - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks in summer, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The overall growth of sugarcane in southern producing areas is good, but the sugar production in some beet - producing areas in China is affected. The strategy is to mainly wait and see [1][3]. - In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was at high risk of heat damage. The commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and the cotton price has bottom - support. The import of cotton is lower than expected, and the demand for cotton is expected to recover seasonally during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, with potential for price increase. The strategy is to mainly wait and see [1][3]. Summaries based on Related Content Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5,780 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5,810 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14,950 yuan [1]. Market Trends - U.S. sugar closed at 16.32, with a change of - 1.92%. U.S. cotton closed at 64.94, with a change of 0.78% [1]. Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the summer demand for cold drinks, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets [1]. - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increased the risk of heat damage to cotton. The commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and the cotton textile peak season is approaching, providing bottom - support for cotton prices [1]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 8,968, with a change of 0.00%. Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 3,081, with a change of 0.00% [2][4]. Data Quick View - **External Market Quotes**: U.S. sugar decreased from 16.64 to 16.32, a change of - 1.92%. U.S. cotton increased from 64.44 to 64.94, a change of 0.78% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Nanning and Kunming sugar spot prices remained unchanged. The cotton index 328 decreased slightly by 0.01%, and Xinjiang cotton spot price remained unchanged [4]. - **Price Difference Quick View**: Most price differences and basis points remained unchanged, with only a slight increase in cotton basis points [4]. - **Import Prices**: The cotton cotlookA price remained unchanged [4]. - **Profit Margins**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged [4]. - **Options**: The implied volatilities of SR601C5500, SR601P5500, CF601C13200, and CF601P13200 are 0.1034, 0.0929, 0.1347, and 0.1294 respectively [4]. Conclusions - Sugar: The overall growth of sugarcane in southern producing areas is good, but the sugar production in some beet - producing areas in China is affected. Brazil's sugar production progress has accelerated, and the market expects production to exceed consumption. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating [3]. - Cotton: Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the expected ending inventory is reduced. The overall growth of new - season cotton is better than last year, and the demand for cotton is expected to recover seasonally during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, with potential for price increase [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Mainly wait and see [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oscillation - Medium - short - term: Bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the National Day holiday, the overall situation of domestic news was stable, and the issue of the U.S. government shutdown continued to ferment overseas, but the actual impact on peripheral stock indices was limited. The contribution of foreign capital to the A - share index rally was not high, so the subsequent international influence was limited. With the expectation of narrowing Sino - U.S. interest rate differentials, macro - level risks were basically cleared, and the stock index entered a stage where it was more likely to rise than fall. In the short term, the pre - holiday market was in a high - level consolidation state, and the main contradiction between bulls and bears was the improvement of long - term fundamentals versus high short - term valuations. The time point for breaking the deadlock in October might be around the Fourth Plenary Session on the 20th. The small - cap cyclical style (including the previously undervalued optional consumer industry) was expected to be the direction of post - holiday capital speculation, but the rotation speed within the sector was expected to be relatively fast. Technology stocks remained the medium - term main line, but the short - term cost - performance was not high. Attention should be paid to the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Stock Market Information - From October 1st to 8th, the cumulative cross - regional personnel flow in the whole society was expected to exceed 2.432 billion person - times, a record high, with an average daily flow of 304 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The Fed's September meeting minutes showed that Fed officials were willing to cut interest rates further this year, but many officials were cautious due to inflation concerns. Most participants believed that further easing of policies might be appropriate for the rest of the year [5]. 3.2 Stock Index Disk Review - **Market Tracking**: On the last trading day before the holiday, the A - share market oscillated at a high level. Among the four major indices, the SSE 50 rose 0.53%, the CSI 300 rose 0.45%, the CSI 500 rose 0.84%, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.03%. In terms of sectors, aerospace and military industry (+3.45%) and basic metals (+3.04%) led the gains, while communication equipment (-1.71%) and insurance (-1.38%) lagged behind. More than 2,600 stocks rose, and 63 stocks hit the daily limit, with a relatively poor profit - making effect [5]. - **Technical Tracking**: There were high - level divergences on the daily line. The CSI 300 and CSI 500 were stronger than the SSE 50 and CSI 1000. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support and pressure between the "20 - day moving average + September 4th low - previous high". The weekly and monthly lines maintained an upward trend, and the medium - term bullish signal continued [5]. - **Fund Flow**: The pre - holiday trading volume of A - shares narrowed to about 2.1 trillion yuan. The willingness of funds to enter the market before the long holiday decreased, but it was still at a relatively high level in history [5]. 3.3 Core Logic Summary - After the holiday, the stock index was expected to continue the oscillation pattern with enlarged overall fluctuations. Trend traders were not recommended to chase high on the first trading day after the holiday. They could consider gradually increasing positions when the index pulled back to the 20 - day moving average or the low point in early September. If the long positions had achieved profits before the October meeting, they could take profits and exit in a timely manner [3]. 3.4 Operation Suggestions - **Futures Operation**: Considering that the stock index failed to break through effectively before the holiday, trend traders were not recommended to chase high on the first trading day after the holiday. They could consider gradually increasing positions when the index pulled back to the 20 - day moving average or the low point in early September [4]. - **Options Operation**: The implied volatility declined before the holiday. The average IV of the CSI 300 for the current month fluctuated around 18%, which was at a medium - high level in history. Considering the limited news fluctuations during the holiday, the volatility was expected to decline slightly after the holiday, and the overall operation cost - performance was limited. It was recommended to wait for the volatility to rise before intervening in double - selling [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, the economic fundamentals are relatively cold. To achieve the economic growth target, policies in the fourth quarter still need to be strengthened. The newly announced 500 billion in new policy - based financial instruments may have various sources of funds, and there is still a certain probability of releasing the debt space limit. The "anti - involution" policy has had an impact on PPI and industrial enterprise profits, but the subsequent recovery process remains tortuous [1][10][13]. - Abroad, the Fed's interest rate cut in September can be regarded as a preventive one. There is a significant divergence between the Fed and the market next year. The controversy over the Fed's independence will continue in October, and the US Supreme Court will start reviewing the legality of some tariffs in November. The US government faces a shutdown risk on October 1st, which may affect economic data release and market sentiment [2][22][27]. - In terms of major asset trends, stocks will mainly fluctuate, and it is advisable to go long on dips; bonds have weak sentiment; the exchange rate will fluctuate within a range; and for gold, it is advisable to take a long - biased approach [3][28][30]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic: A New Round of Support Policies is Coming (1) The expectation of stable - growth policies resurfaces - The economic data in August was generally cold, with consumption weakening, production sluggish, and investment under pressure. To achieve the economic growth target, new stable - growth policies are necessary. The new policies may focus on debt limits and policy - based banks. The 500 billion in new policy - based financial instruments will be used to supplement project capital and support private enterprises' participation in the "Artificial Intelligence +" action [10][13]. (2) Has the "anti - involution" policy taken effect? - The "anti - involution" policy did not boost the "troika" of the economy but had an impact on PPI and industrial enterprise profits. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of PPI increased from - 3.6% in July to - 2.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits soared from - 1.5% in July to 20.4%. However, the recovery of PPI and industrial enterprise profits is also due to the low base last year [17][18]. Abroad: There is a Significant Divergence between the Fed and the Market Next Year - The Fed's interest rate cut in September was a preventive one. There is a difference between the Fed's and the market's expectations for the federal funds target rate next year. If the Fed remains data - dependent, the market's pricing may be incorrect, but the upcoming change of the Fed chairman adds uncertainty. The controversy over the Fed's independence will continue in October, and the US Supreme Court will review the legality of some tariffs in November. The US government faces a shutdown risk on October 1st, which may affect economic data release and market sentiment [21][23][27]. Major Asset Trends Outlook (1) Stocks: Mainly fluctuate, and it is advisable to go long on dips - Since September, the strong upward trend of the equity market has been curbed, and the Shanghai Composite Index has generally fluctuated. The growth style leads, and the market risk appetite will be maintained due to new policy tools and the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee. The general direction of the stock market is still upward, but the market may fluctuate in the short term [28]. (2) Bonds: Weak sentiment - The bond market continued to adjust in September. Factors such as the draft for soliciting opinions on fund fees, possible over - expected fiscal policies, and potential redemption pressure on the liability side of funds have suppressed the bond market. Although the overall view is bullish, short - term caution is needed [30]. (3) The RMB exchange rate will remain volatile - Since September, the domestic supporting factors for the RMB exchange rate have weakened, but the support from the current account and the capital account still exists. The US dollar index is the core variable. After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the US dollar index rebounded slightly, but in the long run, it is in a downward channel, and the RMB is still in an appreciation trend [34]. (4) Gold: It is advisable to take a long - biased approach - Gold showed strong performance in September. The Fed's interest rate cut, along with geopolitical issues, the controversy over the Fed's independence, and fiscal issues in various countries, supported the gold price. It is recommended to allocate 15 - 20% of the position to go long on gold [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and international markets. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The textile market has entered the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", and cotton demand is expected to recover seasonally, with upward price momentum [1][2]. - The overall growth of sugarcane in southern production areas is good, but the sugar beet production in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is affected by drought and excessive rainfall respectively, resulting in a delay in the start - up time of sugar mills. Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the expected ending inventory is revised downwards. The overall growth of new - season cotton is better than last year [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5780.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5810.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14950.0 yuan [1]. Market - U.S. sugar closed at 16.4, with a change of 0.31%. U.S. cotton closed at 65.4, with a change of - 1.40% [1]. Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for summer cold drinks, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and international markets [1]. - Cotton: In August, the temperature in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin cotton areas was high and precipitation was low, increasing the risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton. Currently, the commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and as the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, there is bottom support for cotton prices [1]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 8981.0, with a change of - 5.10%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 3173.0, with a change of - 6.59% [1] Data Quick View Outer - Market Quotes - U.S. sugar (in dollars) rose from 16.35 on September 28, 2025, to 16.4 on September 29, 2025, with a change of 0.31%. U.S. cotton (in dollars) fell from 66.33 to 65.4, with a change of - 1.40% [3]. Spot Prices - Nanning sugar spot price remained at 5780.0 yuan, and Kunming sugar spot price remained at 5810.0 yuan. The cotton index 328 fell from 3281 to 3280, with a change of - 0.32%. Xinjiang cotton spot price fell from 15000.0 yuan to 14950.0 yuan, with a change of - 0.33% [3]. Spread Quick View - The spreads of SR01 - 05, SR09 - 01, and sugar 05 and 09 basis points have changed to varying degrees, while the spreads of CF09 - 01 and cotton 01 and 09 basis points remained unchanged [3]. Import Prices - The import price of cotton cotlookA remained at 77.7 on September 28 and 29, 2025 [3]. Profit Margins - The sugar import profit remained at 1484.5 on September 28 and 29, 2025 [3]. Options - The implied volatility of SR601C5500 and SR601P5500 is 0.0859, and the historical volatility of SR601 is 6.48. The implied volatility of CF601C13400 is 0.1195, and the implied volatility of CF601P13400 is 0.1234, with the historical volatility of CF601 being 7.39 [3]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 9464.0 on September 28, 2025, to 8981.0 on September 29, 2025, with a change of - 5.10%. Cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 3397.0 to 3173.0, with a change of - 6.59% [3] Strategy Recommendations - Adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for sugar is "sideways" [1]. - The investment rating for cotton is "sideways" [1]. Core Viewpoints - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks during the summer. The import of sugar has increased significantly recently due to the widened price difference between domestic and international markets. The international sugar price is weakly fluctuating above the lowest point in the past four years, with production expected to exceed consumption. The overall growth of sugarcane in southern China is good, but the sugar production in some beet - producing areas in China is affected [1][2]. - The cotton import is lower than expected, and the expected ending inventory is reduced. The overall growth of cotton this year is better than last year. As the textile market enters the traditional peak season, cotton demand is expected to recover, and prices have the potential to rise [2]. Summary by Directory Information - The spot price of sugar in Nanning is 5780.0 yuan, and in Kunming is 5810.0 yuan. The spot price of cotton in Xinjiang is 15050.0 yuan [1]. Futures Market - The closing price of US sugar is 16.35, with a change of 0.37%. The closing price of US cotton is 66.33, with a change of 0.09% [1]. Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the summer demand for cold drinks, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered. Due to the widened price difference between domestic and international markets, sugar imports have increased significantly recently [1]. - Cotton: In August, the temperature in cotton - growing areas in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was high and precipitation was low, increasing the risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton. The commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, there is support at the bottom for cotton prices [1]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts is 9464.0, with a change of - 3.36%. The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts is 3397.0, with a change of - 5.19% [1]. Data Quick View - **External Market Quotes**: The price of US sugar increased from 16.29 to 16.35, a change of 0.37%. The price of US cotton increased from 66.27 to 66.33, a change of 0.09% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of sugar in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The cotton index 328 decreased by 0.27%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang increased by 0.33% [3]. - **Price Difference Insights**: There were various changes in the price differences of sugar and cotton futures contracts, and the basis of both sugar and cotton increased [3]. - **Import Prices**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged [3]. - **Profit Margins**: The sugar import profit decreased by 1.88% [3]. - **Options**: The implied volatility of SR601C5500 is 0.0871, and that of SR601P5500 is 0.0824. The implied volatility of CF601C13400 is 0.1257, and that of CF601P13400 is 0.1181 [3]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 9793.0 to 9464.0, a change of - 3.36%. The number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 3583.0 to 3397.0, a change of - 5.19% [3]. Conclusion - Sugar: The growth of sugarcane in southern China is good, but the sugar production in some beet - producing areas is affected. The international sugar price is weakly fluctuating [2]. - Cotton: Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the new - season cotton growth is good. With the peak season approaching, cotton demand is expected to recover, and prices may rise [2]. Strategy Suggestion - It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core View of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the summer cold drink demand, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The price is expected to remain in an oscillating state, and the report suggests a wait - and - see approach [1][3] - Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the ending inventory is expected to be revised downwards. With the arrival of the traditional peak season in the textile market, cotton demand is expected to recover, and the price has the impetus to rise. The price is expected to oscillate, and the report suggests a wait - and - see approach [1][3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5780.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5810.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15000.0 yuan [1] Market - US sugar closed at 16.29, with a change of 1.05%. US cotton closed at 66.27, with a change of 0.20% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by summer cold drink demand, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening domestic - foreign price difference [1] - Cotton: In August, the temperature in cotton - growing areas in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was high and precipitation was low, increasing the risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, commercial cotton inventories are continuously decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textiles, there is bottom - support for cotton prices [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 9793.0, with a change of - 0.62%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 3583.0, with a change of - 3.58% [2] Data Quick View Outer - Market Quotes - US sugar rose from 16.12 on September 24, 2025, to 16.29 on September 25, 2025, with a change of 1.05%. US cotton rose from 66.14 to 66.27, with a change of 0.20% [4] Spot Prices - Nanning sugar spot price remained at 5780.0 yuan, with a change of 0.00%. Kunming sugar spot price rose from 5800.0 to 5810.0, with a change of 0.17%. Cotton Index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, with a change of - 0.14%. Xinjiang cotton spot price decreased from 15050.0 to 15000.0, with a change of - 0.33% [4] Spread Quick View - The spreads of SR01 - 05, SR09 - 01, CF01 - 05, and CF05 - 09 all decreased, while SR05 - 09 increased. The spreads of SR09 - 01 and CF09 - 01 remained unchanged [4] Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA remained at 78.15, with a change of 0.00% [4] Profit Margins - Sugar import profit remained at 1547.0, with a change of 0.00% [4] Options - The implied volatilities of SR601C5500, SR601P5500, CF601C13600, and CF601P13600 are 0.0879, 0.0874, 0.1067, and 0.1064 respectively, and the historical volatilities of SR601 and CF601 are 6.53 and 7.12 respectively [4] Inventory Warehouse Receipts - Sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 9854.0 to 9793.0, with a change of - 0.62%. Cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 3716.0 to 3583.0, with a change of - 3.58% [4] Conclusion - Sugar: Sugarcane in southern producing areas is growing well, but in Xinjiang, the beet yield per unit has slightly decreased due to drought, and in central and western Inner Mongolia, the sugar content of beets has decreased and the harvest has been affected, delaying the sugar factory start - up time. Brazil's sugar production progress has accelerated, and the market expects production to exceed consumption. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years [3] - Cotton: Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the ending inventory is expected to be revised downwards. The overall growth of new - season cotton is better than last year. With the arrival of the traditional peak season in the textile market, cotton demand is expected to recover, and the price has the impetus to rise [3] Strategy Suggestion - It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]

| 走势评级： | 白糖——震荡 | | --- | --- | | | 棉花——震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 商品研究 期货研究报告 新棉批量上市，棉花短期承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-09-25 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 资讯：南宁白糖现货价 5780.0 元，昆明白糖现货价 5800.0 元，新疆棉花 现货价 15050.0 元。 软商品日报 盘面：美白糖收 16.12，涨跌幅-0.25%。美棉花收 66.14，涨跌幅-0.71%。 棉花——震荡 供需： 白糖：受暑期冷饮需求带动，食糖消费季节性回暖。由于国内外价差扩大， 近期食糖进口增长明显。 棉花：8 月新疆和长江流域棉区气温偏高、降水偏少，棉花遭受高温热害风 险较高。当前棉花商业库存持续下降，同时棉纺织旺季即将到来，棉价存在 底部支撑。 库存仓单：郑糖仓单 9854.0 张，涨跌幅为-1.68%；郑棉仓单 3716.0 张， 涨跌幅为-5.0 ...