Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar is affected by consecutive droughts from autumn to spring, with unfavorable emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi. Beet growth is generally good, but there is a risk of pests and diseases in Inner Mongolia due to excessive rainfall. Attention should be paid to Brazil's sugar production progress and Northern Hemisphere sugar crop growth [1]. - Most cotton - growing areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with growth 4 - 7 days ahead of previous years. High - temperature in Xinjiang in July poses a heat - damage risk. Cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market is in a slack season, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Weather changes and tariff uncertainties need to be monitored [1]. Data Summary 1. Price Changes - **Foreign Market Quotes**: From August 10 to August 11, 2025, the price of US sugar increased by 1.66% from 16.27 to 16.54 dollars, and the price of US cotton increased by 0.30% from 66.64 to 66.84 dollars [3]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 8 to August 11, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning increased by 0.17% from 5950.0 to 5960.0, while the price in Kunming remained unchanged. The cotton index 328 decreased by 0.11% from 3281 to 3280, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 0.33% from 15100.0 to 15050.0 [3]. 2. Spread Changes - **Sugar Spread**: From August 10 to August 11, 2025, SR01 - 05 decreased by 2.33%, SR05 - 09 decreased by 2.00%, and SR09 - 01 decreased by 1.87% [3]. - **Cotton Spread**: CF05 - 09 increased by 36.36%, and CF09 - 01 increased by 25.00%, while CF01 - 05 remained unchanged [3]. 3. Basis Changes - **Sugar Basis**: From August 8 to August 11, 2025, the basis of sugar 01 remained unchanged, the basis of sugar 05 decreased by 0.34%, and the basis of sugar 09 increased by 1.38% [3]. - **Cotton Basis**: The basis of cotton 01 decreased by 7.04%, the basis of cotton 05 decreased by 6.79%, and the basis of cotton 09 decreased by 3.71% [3]. 4. Import Price and Profit - The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged from August 8 to August 11, 2025, and the sugar import profit also remained unchanged [3]. 5. Option Volatility - For SR601C5600, the implied volatility is 0.0856, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying SR601 is 5.86. For CF601C13600, the implied volatility is 0.107, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying CF601 is 5.03 [3]. 6. Warehouse Receipts - From August 8 to August 11, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1.64% from 18545.0 to 18240.0, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.97% from 8252.0 to 8172.0 [3] Company Information - Xinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business, wholly - owned by Xinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has multiple memberships and observer statuses in relevant institutions [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, China's exports exceeded expectations, but container throughput dropped sharply at the beginning of August, and if the trend continues, August may be a turning point [1][11]. - Although the month - on - month PPI growth rate rebounded in July, the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged. If commodity prices can hold up in August, the year - on - year PPI growth rate may rebound, but the rebound amplitude is expected to be limited [2][17]. - The real estate market continues to be sluggish, with new home sales area at a historical low and the second - hand housing market deteriorating [2][21]. - The bond market is in a volatile state this week. Looking forward, the bond market has investment value, and bond yields may break previous lows [3][35]. Summary by Directory 1. Domestic Economic Data Tracking (1) Export Exceeded Expectations - In July, China's export value was $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, far exceeding the Wind consensus forecast of 5.8% [11]. - Due to the "rush to export", the cumulative growth rate of export value has deviated from the annual average of the new export order index. Exports to the EU and ASEAN remained resilient, while those to the US continued to decline [11]. - Container throughput continued to rise in July but dropped sharply at the beginning of August. If the trend continues, August may be a turning point [1][11]. (2) Supply - side Reform Has Not Been Transmitted to PPI - In July, the year - on - year PPI remained at - 3.6%, the same as in June, due to the base effect. However, the month - on - month PPI growth rate rebounded by 0.2 percentage points compared to June [15][17]. - If commodity prices can hold up in August, the year - on - year PPI growth rate may rebound. However, the rebound amplitude is expected to be limited because the price increase in the upstream is difficult to be transmitted downstream, and overall demand needs to recover. Currently, only the mining and raw material sectors are showing price increases, accounting for about 25% [2][19]. 2. Real Estate Policy Effect Tracking - The Real Estate Market Continued to Perform Sluggishly - The sales area of new homes in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline seasonally, remaining lower than the same period in 2024. The sales area of new homes in first - and third - tier cities was lower than in 2024, while that in second - tier cities was basically the same as last year. All are hovering at historical lows [2][21]. - As of July 28, the listing price index of second - hand housing continued to decline overall. The listing price index in first - tier cities rebounded slightly, while those in second - and third - tier cities continued to fall [2][21]. 3. Treasury Bonds: Policy Disturbance Cooled Down, and the Bond Market Remained Volatile - The bond market was relatively stable this week. The central bank conducted a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan, sending a signal of explicit support [35]. - The upward trend brought by supply - side reform cooled down this week, and the impact on the bond market was not significant. Due to the unfalsifiable expectation of economic recovery brought by policy expectations, the bond market remained volatile [35]. - Looking forward, the overall view is bullish, with short - term volatility expected. The probability of interest rates continuing to decline is relatively high, and it will take time to test the policy effects [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Jiao Coal - Sideways [1] - Coke - Sideways [1] Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of tariffs has risen again. Although the extension of the suspension of Sino - US tariffs for another 90 days is likely to be implemented, there are still some variables. With the approaching delivery of the near - month contract, the market is expected to return to the fundamentals [4]. - For Jiao Coal, the mine - end production continues to decline, but the capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants has increased. The inventory transfer from upstream to downstream has slowed down. For Coke, the sixth round of spot price increase has started, and further price increases depend on whether downstream steel products can raise prices [4]. - From the perspective of steel profit distribution in the industrial chain, Jiao Coal is relatively overvalued compared to downstream steel products. In the short term, with the implementation of steel mill production restrictions in the north, the raw material trend may be weaker than that of steel products again. It is recommended to hold long positions in J01/JM01 lightly and beware of callback risks [5]. Summary by Directory Jiao Coal Supply and Demand - The operating rate of 523 mines is 83.89% (-2.42), and the capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants is 36.22% (+1.19). The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.75% (+0.27) [2]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is 245.66 million tons (-2.6), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 288.11 million tons (+2.1), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 808.66 million tons (+4.87), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 832.75 million tons (-11.31), and the port inventory is 277.34 million tons (-4.77) [2]. Spot Price and Spread - The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal is 1,150 yuan/ton (-0), the active contract is 1,227 yuan/ton (-2.5), the basis is -57 yuan/ton (+2.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -157.5 yuan/ton (-15) [1]. Coke Supply and Demand - The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.75% (+0.27), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.09% (-0.15), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.4032 million tons (-0.39) [3]. Inventory - The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 44.63 million tons (-1.89), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 619.28 million tons (-7.41), and the port inventory is 218.15 million tons (+3.05) [3]. Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1,470 yuan/ton (+0), the active contract is 1,653.5 yuan/ton (-14), the basis is -73 yuan/ton (+14), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -80.5 yuan/ton (-4). The sixth round of price increase has started [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Core View of the Report - Sugar: Affected by consecutive droughts in autumn, winter, and spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, making it prone to pests and diseases, which need to be prevented in advance. Internationally, attention should continue to be paid to the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, attention should be continuously paid to the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. Summary According to Data 1. Price and Spread - **Ex - market Quotes**: The prices of US sugar and US cotton remained unchanged from August 9th to 10th, 2025, with a 0.00% increase or decrease [3]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 7th to 8th, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning decreased by 0.34%, in Kunming by 0.09%, the cotton index 328 by 0.09%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged [3]. - **Price Spreads**: All price spreads and basis for sugar and cotton remained unchanged from August 9th to 10th, 2025, with a 0.00% increase or decrease [3]. 2. Import and Profit - **Import Prices**: From August 7th to 8th, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA decreased by 0.32% [3]. - **Profit Space**: The import profit of sugar remained unchanged from August 7th to 8th, 2025, with a 0.00% increase or decrease [3]. 3. Option and Warehouse Receipt - **Options**: The implied volatilities of SR601C5600, SR601P5600, CF509C13600, and CF509P13600 are 0.0874, 0.0855, 0.0923, and 0.0923 respectively, and the historical volatilities of SR601 and CF509 are 5.93 and 7.78 respectively [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: From August 7th to 8th, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 0.38%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.92% [3]. Company Introduction - **General Information**: CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is one of the large - scale, standardized, and high - reputation futures companies in China [8]. - **Exchange Membership**: It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil showed a lackluster performance with six consecutive negative closes, and the market sentiment was relatively weak. Although there were potential supply tightening and strong demand signals, the market reaction was flat due to the approaching end of the traditional demand peak season, India's strong response, and the progress of the US - Russia talks. The current oil price is approaching a key support level and faces a directional choice. There is a risk of the oil price breaking down due to the accumulation of US commercial crude oil inventories and the approaching seasonal demand inflection point. It is recommended to short on rallies [1][2][3][5] Summary by Directory Market Structure - The report presents the WTI forward curve, WTI monthly spreads, Brent forward curve, Brent monthly spreads, SC forward curve, and SC crude oil monthly spreads, showing the latest data and those from one and two weeks ago [11][14][16] Supply - The report shows data on US crude oil production, rigs, and active fracturing fleets, as well as OPEC+ member countries' production. It also includes the US refinery utilization rate and the refining plant utilization rate of Shandong local refineries (atmospheric and vacuum distillation units) [21][24] Demand - The report shows the production of crude oil in countries such as Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Oman, Azerbaijan, and Malaysia, reflecting the supply - side situation related to demand [30] Inventory - The report presents data on US crude oil inventories, including strategic petroleum reserves, commercial crude oil in the whole US, and commercial crude oil in Cushing, as well as the inventories of gasoline, aviation kerosene, and distillate fuel oil [27][31] Position/US Dollar - The report shows the WTI fund position, Brent fund position, WTI total position, Brent total position, and the US dollar index [32][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for coke is "Bullish", and for coking coal is also "Bullish" [1] Core Viewpoints - Macro events are mostly settled, reducing future uncertainties. The Politburo meeting shows optimism about the economy, and the Sino-US-Sweden meeting has limited substantial outcomes. The real estate financing situation has improved in July, which may repair market pessimism [4] - For coking coal, the long - term agreement price of major coking coal from Shanxi large mines has increased, the spot price is firm, the mine start - up is slow, downstream replenishment is active, and inventory is transferring from upstream to downstream [4] - For coke, the sixth round of spot price increase has started, the futures price is close to the spot price, and further price increase depends on the rise of downstream steel prices. The coke demand remains resilient, the coke enterprises' inventory is decreasing, and the port's term - hedging positions are increasing [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal 1. Market Conditions - Spot prices are stable, and futures prices are rebounding. The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,150 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is 1,229.5 yuan/ton (+8.5), the basis is - 59.5 yuan/ton (-8.5), and the September - January spread is - 142.5 yuan/ton (+4.5) [2] 2. Supply and Demand - Supply and demand have slightly declined. The operating rate of 523 mines is 86.31% (-0.59), the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is 61.51% (-0.8), and the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.48% (-0.13) [2] 3. Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is 248.26 million tons (-30.18), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 166.38 million tons (-9.23), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 803.79 million tons (+4.28), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 844.06 million tons (+2.85), and the port inventory is 282.11 million tons (-10.23) [2] Coke 1. Market Conditions - The sixth round of spot price increase has started, and futures prices are rebounding. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1,470 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is 1,667.5 yuan/ton (+23), the basis is - 87 yuan/ton (-23), and the September - January spread is - 76.5 yuan/ton (+11.5) [3] 2. Supply and Demand - Supply and demand are flat month - on - month, but there is still a gap. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.48% (-0.13), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.24% (-0.57), and the daily average hot metal output is 240.71 million tons (-1.52) [3] 3. Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, downstream inventory is changing, and port inventory is increasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 46.52 million tons (-3.6), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 626.69 million tons (-13.29), and the port inventory is 215.1 million tons (+16.97) [3] Strategy Suggestions - With the reduction of macro uncertainties, the market will return to the industrial logic. It is recommended to reduce the long positions of J01/JM01 and add positions after the callback. The coking coal market may remain strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to the adjustment risk [4][5]

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 市场等待美农数据，棉花震荡运行 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-08-07 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：受秋冬春连旱影响，广西甘蔗出苗和前期生长不利，甘蔗长势和株 数较去年同期偏矮偏少。甜菜长势总体良好，但内蒙古产区近期降水偏多， 易发生病虫害，需提前防治。国际方面，后期需继续关注巴西产糖进度和北 半球糖料生长情况。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：全国大部分棉花产区已进入现蕾至开花阶段，生长进度比往年提前 了 4 到 7 天。根据中国气象局的气候预测，7 月份新疆地区的气温将持续偏 高，高温天数也将超过往年同期，这使得棉花面临较高的热害风险。目前， 棉花库存总量持续减少，但下游市场表现出明显的淡季特征，纺织企业在原 料采购上显得 ...

-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——看涨 焦煤——看涨 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 供给端传闻不断，焦煤强势运行 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 7 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 1. 交通部、财政部、自然资源部印发《新一轮农村公路提升行动方案》，到 2027 年， 全国完成改建农村公路 30 万公里。 焦煤： 现货暂稳，期货反弹。蒙 5#主焦煤报 1150 元/吨(-0)，现货暂稳。活跃合约报 1221 元/吨(+39)。基差-51 元/吨(-39)，9-1 月差-147 元/吨（-11.5）。 供需小幅回 ...

期货研究报告 商品研究 [Table_ReportType] 工业硅/多晶硅早报 走势评级： 工业硅：震荡 多晶硅：震荡 楼家豪—有色分析师 从业资格证号：F3080463 投资咨询证号：Z0018424 联系电话：0571-28132615 徐浩然—有色分析师 从业资格证号：F03120971 联系电话：0571-28132578 邮箱：xuhaoran@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 ◆相关咨询： 中国机电商会关于反对不正当竞争 维护光伏行业对外贸易高 质量发展的倡议。 ◆基本面： 工业硅：现货价格方面，华东不通氧 553#硅在 9000-9200 元/吨，较上一交易 日跌 200 元/吨。供给方面：7 月份工业硅产量再度抬升至 33 万吨，较 6 月提 高 1w 吨，新疆地区产量小幅下降，产量增量主要由西南地区提供，四川地区 复产至 4.8w 吨，云南产量复产至 4 万吨，六月底头部企业减产落地，缓解了 供应端压力，但西南地区仍在复产阶段，短期内供应压力仍将不断抬升。由于 供给侧改革的预期，期 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 受助于空头回补，棉花有所支撑 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-08-06 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：受秋冬春连旱影响，广西甘蔗出苗和前期生长不利，甘蔗长势和株 数较去年同期偏矮偏少。甜菜长势总体良好，但内蒙古产区近期降水偏多， 易发生病虫害，需提前防治。国际方面，后期需继续关注巴西产糖进度和北 半球糖料生长情况。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：全国大部分棉花产区已进入现蕾至开花阶段，生长进度比往年提前 了 4 到 7 天。根据中国气象局的气候预测，7 月份新疆地区的气温将持续偏 高，高温天数也将超过往年同期，这使得棉花面临较高的热害风险。目前， 棉花库存总量持续减少，但下游市场表现出明显的淡季特征，纺织企业在原 料采购上显得较 ...