Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given documents. 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the soft commodities market, specifically sugar and cotton. The market is currently paying attention to weather conditions, and cotton is expected to experience short - term fluctuations. The consumption of sugar has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and the import of sugar has increased significantly recently. Cotton is at risk of high - temperature heat damage in some areas, but the decreasing commercial inventory and the upcoming cotton textile peak season provide some support for cotton prices. The recommended strategy is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Data Overview - **External Quotes**: On September 10, 2025, the price of US sugar was 15.89 US dollars, with a daily increase of 0.32%, and the price of US cotton was 66.72 US dollars, with a daily increase of 0.50% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: On September 10, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5880.0 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of sugar in Kunming was 5835.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.26%. The price of the cotton index 328 was 3280, with a daily decrease of 0.32%, and the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang was 15250.0 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.33% [3]. - **Spread Overview**: The spreads of sugar and cotton futures contracts showed different degrees of changes. For example, the SR01 - 05 spread increased by 33.33%, and the CF01 - 05 spread decreased by 22.22% [3]. - **Import Prices**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 77.65 on September 10, 2025 [3]. - **Profit Margin**: The import profit of sugar remained unchanged at 1614.0 on September 10, 2025 [3]. - **Options**: The implied volatilities of sugar and cotton option contracts SR601C5500, SR601P5500, CF601C13800, and CF601P13800 were 0.0855, 0.0816, 0.1278, and 0.115 respectively [3]. - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: On September 10, 2025, the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 11772.0, with a daily decrease of 1.71%, and the number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 5322.0, with a daily decrease of 2.51% [1][3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Sugar**: The consumption of sugar has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks. The import of sugar has increased significantly recently due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets, but the total annual import volume is still expected to be within the expected range. Since July, extreme rainfall in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia has affected local sugarcane and sugar beet crops, and the potential impact on sugar production needs continuous monitoring [1][2]. - **Cotton**: Most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening and flocculation stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin is at high risk of high - temperature heat damage. The commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and the upcoming cotton textile peak season provides some support for cotton prices [1][2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar demand has a seasonal increase due to summer cold - drink consumption, and recent sugar imports have risen significantly driven by the expanding domestic - foreign price gap, with the annual import volume expected to stay within the forecast range. However, extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may affect sugar production [1][3]. - Most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some parts of Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening and flocculation stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin faces a high risk of heat damage. Currently, cotton commercial inventories are decreasing, and the cotton textile peak season is approaching, providing support for cotton prices [1][3]. - The recommended strategy is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Information and Quotes - Nanning sugar spot price is 5,880 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5,830 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15,350 yuan [1]. - U.S. sugar closed at 15.64 with a change of 0.39%, and U.S. cotton closed at 66.28 with a change of 0.29% [1]. Supply and Demand - Sugar: Summer cold - drink demand drives a seasonal recovery in sugar consumption, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the expanding domestic - foreign price gap [1]. - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increase the risk of heat damage to cotton. Current cotton commercial inventories are decreasing, and the cotton textile peak season is approaching, providing a bottom - support for cotton prices [1]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 12,102.0, with a change of - 3.00%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 5,571.0, with a change of - 2.43% [2]. Data Overview - **External Quotes**: From September 7th to 8th, 2025, U.S. sugar rose from 15.58 to 15.64 (0.39%), and U.S. cotton rose from 66.09 to 66.28 (0.29%) [4]. - **Spot Prices**: From September 5th to 8th, 2025, Nanning sugar remained at 5,880 yuan (0.00% change), Kunming sugar dropped from 5,835.0 to 5,830.0 (- 0.09%), the cotton index 328 dropped from 3,281 to 3,280 (- 0.16%), and Xinjiang cotton remained at 15,350 yuan (0.00% change) [4]. - **Price Spread Overview**: There were various changes in sugar and cotton price spreads from September 7th to 8th, 2025, such as SR01 - 05 rising 28.57% and CF01 - 05 dropping 25.00% [4]. - **Import Prices**: The cotton cotlookA remained at 77.6 from September 5th to 8th, 2025 (0.00% change) [4]. - **Profit Margins**: The sugar import profit remained at 1,672.5 from September 5th to 8th, 2025 (0.00% change) [4]. - **Options**: The implied volatilities of SR601C5500, SR601P5500, CF601C13800, and CF601P13800 are 0.0838, 0.0825, 0.1121, and 0.1091 respectively [4]. - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: From September 5th to 8th, 2025, sugar warehouse receipts dropped from 12,476.0 to 12,102.0 (- 3.00%), and cotton warehouse receipts dropped from 5,710.0 to 5,571.0 (- 2.43%) [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks. Recent sugar imports have increased significantly driven by the expanding price difference between domestic and international markets, but the total annual imports are still expected to be within the projected range. Extreme rainfall in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may potentially impact sugar production, which requires continuous monitoring [1][3]. - Most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening and flocculation stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin faces a high risk of heat damage due to high temperatures and insufficient precipitation. Currently, commercial cotton inventories are continuously decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, cotton prices are supported [1][3]. - The recommended strategy is to mainly wait and observe [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5,880.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5,835.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15,350.0 yuan [1]. 3.2 Market Quotes - U.S. sugar closed at 15.58 with a change of 0.00%. U.S. cotton closed at 66.09 with a change of 0.00% [1]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by summer cold - drink demand, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the expanding price difference [1]. - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increase the risk of heat damage to cotton. Current commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and with the approaching peak season for cotton textile, cotton prices have bottom - end support [1]. 3.4 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 12,476.0, a decrease of 2.16%. Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 5,710.0, a decrease of 2.04% [2]. 3.5 Data Quick View - **External Market Quotes**: U.S. sugar remained at 15.58 from September 6th to 7th, 2025, with a change of 0.00%. U.S. cotton remained at 66.09 during the same period, with a change of 0.00% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: From September 4th to 5th, 2025, Nanning sugar spot price remained at 5,880.0 yuan with a change of 0.00%, Kunming sugar spot price dropped from 5,845.0 to 5,835.0 yuan, a decrease of 0.17%, cotton index 328 dropped from 3,281 to 3,280, a decrease of 0.03%, and Xinjiang cotton spot price remained at 15,350.0 yuan with a change of 0.00% [4]. - **Price Difference Quick View**: All price differences and basis for sugar and cotton remained unchanged from September 6th to 7th, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4]. - **Import Prices**: From September 4th to 5th, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA increased from 77.5 to 77.6, an increase of 0.13% [4]. - **Profit Margins**: Sugar import profit remained at 1,646.5 from September 4th to 5th, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4]. - **Options**: The implied volatilities of SR601C5500, SR601P5500, CF601C14000, and CF601P14000 are 0.0843, 0.0815, 0.1099, and 0.1085 respectively, and the historical volatilities of SR601 and CF601 are 6.38 and 6.68 respectively [4]. - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: From September 4th to 5th, 2025, sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 12,752.0 to 12,476.0, a decrease of 2.16%, and cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 5,829.0 to 5,710.0, a decrease of 2.04% [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate as extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia may affect sugar production, while summer cold drink consumption boosts demand and sugar imports have increased significantly recently but are still expected to be within the annual forecast range [1][3] - Cotton prices are also expected to oscillate. Most cotton - growing areas are in the peak flowering period, with some in Xinjiang entering the boll - opening and flocculation stage. High - temperature heat damage risks are high in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August. With decreasing commercial inventories and the upcoming cotton textile peak season, cotton prices have bottom support [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5900.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5850.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15300.0 yuan [1] - U.S. sugar closed at 16.05, with a change of - 0.56%; U.S. cotton closed at 66.23, with a change of 0.27% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Summer cold drink demand drives seasonal recovery in sugar consumption, and sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening domestic - foreign price gap [1] - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increase the risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton. Current commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and the cotton textile peak season is approaching, providing bottom support for cotton prices [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 12782.0, with a change of - 3.18%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 5996.0, with a change of - 2.20% [2] Data Quick View Outer - Market Quotes - U.S. sugar decreased from 16.14 to 16.05, a change of - 0.56%; U.S. cotton increased from 66.05 to 66.23, a change of 0.27% [4] Spot Prices - Nanning and Kunming sugar spot prices remained unchanged; the cotton index 328 increased by 0.34%, and Xinjiang cotton decreased from 15400.0 to 15300.0, a change of - 0.65% [4] Spread Quick View - Various sugar and cotton spreads showed different degrees of change, such as SR01 - 05 decreasing by 23.08% and CF01 - 05 decreasing by 20.00% [4] Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA decreased from 77.95 to 77.5, a change of - 0.58% [4] Profit Margins - Sugar import profit increased from 1550.0 to 1570.0, a change of 1.29% [4] Options - Implied volatilities and historical volatilities of sugar and cotton options are provided, e.g., SR601C5600 has an implied volatility of 0.0882 and SR601 has a historical volatility of 6.33 [4] Inventory Warehouse Receipts - Sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 13202.0 to 12782.0, a change of - 3.18%; cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 6131.0 to 5996.0, a change of - 2.20% [4] Conclusions and Strategy Recommendations - Sugar: Extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may affect sugar production. Summer cold drink consumption drives seasonal growth in sugar demand, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently but the annual total is still expected to be within the forecast range [3] - Cotton: Most cotton - growing areas are in the peak flowering period, with some in Xinjiang entering the boll - opening and flocculation stage. High - temperature heat damage risks are high in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August. Current commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and the cotton textile peak season is approaching, so cotton prices are supported [3] - Strategy recommendation: It is advisable to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term trend: Oscillatory [1] - Medium - short - term trend: Bullish [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent spot sentiment is strong, especially in the startup and growth sectors, which have continuously reached new highs. Although the overall trend is bullish, short - term changes need attention. The market is rising amidst divergence, with an increased retracement amplitude. After the trading volume exceeded 3 trillion, there is a possibility of the index losing upward momentum after sufficient chip turnover. Derivatives have entered a defensive state, with the discount of stock index futures widening last week, especially for IC and IM, indicating a significant increase in cautious sentiment. The profit - making effect is limited due to significant sector differentiation. Considering factors such as the full release of domestic macro risks and the start of the overseas interest - rate cut cycle, the stock index is expected to continue rising in the medium - to - long term. Currently, the market lacks the conditions for a rapid bull market. [3] - In terms of futures operations, short - term long positions are advised to set stop - loss and take - profit points in a timely manner, and medium - to - long - term long positions should wait for further adjustments before entering. For options operations, the implied volatility of stock index options declined yesterday. Those who have entered double - selling positions are advised to take profits, and those holding until expiration need to be aware of potential margin fluctuations during the contract period. [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Stock Market Information - FTSE Russell announced changes to the quarterly review of the FTSE China A50 Index, including the inclusion of BeiGene - U, New Fiber Optic Network, WuXi AppTec, and Zhongji Innolight, and the removal of China National Nuclear Power, China Unicom, State Grid NARI, and Wanhua Chemical. [4] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 3.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 96.6%. In October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 1.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 46.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 51.6%. [4] Stock Index Disk Review Disk Tracking - In the previous trading day, the A - share market showed a divergent trend. Among the four major indices, the Shanghai 50 Index fell 1.07%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.68%, the CSI 500 Index fell 1.34%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.46%. In terms of sectors, precious metals (+1.61%) and electric power grids (+1.59%) led the gains, while aerospace and defense (-6.63%) and diversified finance (-3.66%) lagged. Only more than 800 stocks rose, and 41 stocks hit the daily limit, indicating a poor profit - making effect. [4] Technical Tracking - The daily - line chart shows high - level divergence, with signs of weakening upward momentum. In the long - term, the four major stock indices have broken through their 2023 highs, and the weekly and monthly lines maintain an upward trend, with the bullish signal continuing. [4] Capital Flow - The trading volume of A - shares declined yesterday, remaining in the range of 2.3 - 2.4 trillion throughout the day. Although it decreased compared to last week, the trading enthusiasm is still at a historical high, and the short - term chip turnover rate is relatively fast. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - The weakening US dollar provides support, and soft commodities will experience short - term oscillations [1] - For sugar, from July, extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia may affect sugar production. Summer cold drink consumption drives seasonal growth in sugar demand. Recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the expanded price difference between domestic and foreign markets, but the annual import volume is still expected to be within the forecast range [1][3] - For cotton, most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening stage. The overall growth progress is earlier than usual. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin is at high risk of heat damage. Currently, commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, cotton prices are supported [1][3] - The recommended strategy is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5900.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5850.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15300.0 yuan [1] Market - US sugar closed at 16.05, with a change of - 0.56%. US cotton closed at 66.23, with a change of 0.27% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by summer cold drink demand, sugar consumption has a seasonal recovery. Due to the expanded price difference between domestic and foreign markets, recent sugar imports have increased significantly [1] - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increase the risk of heat damage to cotton. Current commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, cotton prices have bottom - end support [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 12782.0, with a change of - 3.18%. Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 5996.0, with a change of - 2.20% [2] Data Quick View - **External Market Quotes**: On September 3, 2025, compared with September 2, 2025, US sugar decreased by 0.56% to 16.05 US dollars, and US cotton increased by 0.27% to 66.23 US dollars [4] - **Spot Prices**: On September 3, 2025, compared with September 2, 2025, Nanning and Kunming sugar spot prices remained unchanged; the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.34% to 3280, and Xinjiang cotton decreased by 0.65% to 15300.0 yuan [4] - **Price Difference Quick View**: There were significant changes in the price differences between different futures contracts of sugar and cotton, and the basis of sugar and cotton futures also changed to different degrees [4] - **Import Prices**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 77.95 on September 3, 2025, compared with September 2, 2025 [4] - **Profit Margins**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1550.0 on September 3, 2025, compared with September 2, 2025 [4] - **Options**: Different sugar and cotton option contracts have corresponding implied volatilities and historical volatilities [4] - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: On September 3, 2025, compared with September 2, 2025, sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 3.18% to 12782.0, and cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 2.20% to 5996.0 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oscillation - Medium - short - term: Bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent spot market sentiment continues to heat up, especially in the ChiNext and growth sectors, which have reached new highs. The market is rising amidst divergence, and there are several short - term changes to note, including potential index weakness after sufficient chip turnover, the derivatives entering a defensive state, and significant sector differentiation. The report believes that factors such as the full release of domestic macro - risks and the start of the overseas interest - rate cut cycle support a long - term bullish view on stock indices, with short - term issues only related to the pace of increase. The market currently lacks the conditions for a fast - bull market. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Logic Summary - The spot market sentiment is warming up, especially in the ChiNext and growth sectors. Short - term changes include: the market rising amidst divergence with increased intraday pull - backs after trading volume exceeds 3 trillion; derivatives entering a defensive state with increased hedging demand; and significant sector differentiation with limited spread of the profit - making effect. The report is bullish on stock indices in the long - term and suggests short - term intraday long positions and waiting for further adjustments for long - term long positions. [3] 3.2 Operation Suggestions - **Futures**: Short - term long positions should set stop - loss and take - profit levels in a timely manner (consider daily closing). Long - term long positions should wait for further adjustments. - **Options**: The implied volatility of stock index options declined slightly yesterday. The absolute level of volatility is high, and the high - level oscillation may last for a long time. Investors with double - selling positions can take appropriate profits, and those holding until maturity need to be aware of potential margin fluctuations. [4] 3.3 Macro Stock Market Information 3.3.1 Policy and Social Data - The "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans" was officially implemented on September 1st, and pilot banks and other institutions began accepting subsidy applications. - From July 1st to August 31st, the cumulative cross - regional population flow in the whole society reached 11.697 billion person - times, a year - on - year increase of 7%. Among them, the volume of self - driving trips on highways reached 8.7 billion person - times, accounting for 70% of the cross - regional population flow. [5] 3.3.2 Market Tracking - In the previous trading day, the A - share market showed resilience and closed in the green. The Shanghai 50 Index rose 0.16%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.60%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.94%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.84%. The precious metals (+6.67%) and communication equipment (+3.99%) sectors led the gains, while the insurance (-2.32%) and banking (-1.09%) sectors lagged. More than 3,200 stocks rose, and 123 stocks hit the daily limit, indicating a good profit - making effect. [5] 3.3.3 Technical Tracking - Short - term high - level divergence has emerged, and the upward momentum shows signs of weakening. In terms of trends, the four major stock indices have broken through their 2023 highs, and the daily and weekly lines maintain an upward trend, with the bullish signal continuing. [5] 3.3.4 Capital Flow - The trading volume of the A - share market remained flat yesterday, maintaining around 2.7 trillion throughout the day, a decline from last week. However, the trading heat is still at a historical high, and the short - term chip turnover rate is relatively fast. [5]

商品研究 | 走势评级： | 白糖——震荡 | | --- | --- | | | 棉花——震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 巴基斯坦洪水引发产量担忧，棉花短期震荡 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-09-02 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 资讯：南宁白糖现货价 5910.0 元，昆明白糖现货价 5825.0 元，新疆棉花 现货价 15250.0 元。 软商品日报 盘面：美白糖收 16.34，涨跌幅 0.00%。美棉花收 66.53，涨跌幅 0.00%。 棉花——震荡 供需： 白糖：受暑期冷饮需求带动，食糖消费季节性回暖。由于国内外价差扩大， 近期食糖进口增长明显。 棉花：8 月新疆和长江流域棉区气温偏高、降水偏少，棉花遭受高温热害风 险较高。当前棉花商业库存持续下降，同时棉纺织旺季即将到来，棉价存在 底部支撑。 库存仓单：郑糖仓单 13434.0 张，涨跌幅为-3.46%；郑棉仓单 6320.0 张， 涨 ...

商品研究 | | | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 印度降雨或高于预期，棉花短期震荡 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-09-01 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 资讯：南宁白糖现货价 5960.0 元，昆明白糖现货价 5825.0 元，新疆棉花 现货价 15250.0 元。 软商品日报 盘面：美白糖收 16.34，涨跌幅 0.00%。美棉花收 66.53，涨跌幅 0.00%。 棉花——震荡 供需： 白糖：受暑期冷饮需求带动，食糖消费季节性回暖。由于国内外价差扩大， 近期食糖进口增长明显。 棉花：8 月新疆和长江流域棉区气温偏高、降水偏少，棉花遭受高温热害风 险较高。当前棉花商业库存持续下降，同时棉纺织旺季即将到来，棉价存在 底部支撑。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 1 库存仓单：郑糖仓单 13916.0 张，涨跌幅为-4.29%；郑棉仓单 6514.0 张， 涨跌幅为-3.07%。 结论： 白糖：7 月起，云南、 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets. However, the total annual import volume is still expected to be within the expected range. In July, extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia may have affected sugar cane and sugar beet crops, and the potential impact on sugar production needs continuous monitoring. [1][2] - Most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin is at high risk of heat damage. Currently, the commercial inventory of cotton is decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, so cotton prices are supported. [1][2] - The recommended strategy is to mainly wait and see. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5920.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5845.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15250.0 yuan. [1] Market - The closing price of US sugar is 16.44, with a change of 0.12%. The closing price of US cotton is 66.65, with a change of - 0.03%. [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by summer cold drink demand, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets. [1] - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin pose a high risk of heat damage to cotton. The current commercial inventory of cotton is decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, providing support for cotton prices. [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 14906.0, with a change of - 2.67%. Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 6859.0, with a change of - 1.69%. [1] Data Quick View External Market Quotes - The price of US sugar increased from 16.42 on August 26, 2025, to 16.44 on August 27, 2025, with a change of 0.12%. The price of US cotton decreased from 66.67 to 66.65, with a change of - 0.03%. [3] Spot Prices - The price of sugar in Nanning decreased from 5950.0 yuan to 5920.0 yuan, with a change of - 0.50%. The price of sugar in Kunming decreased from 5860.0 yuan to 5845.0 yuan, with a change of - 0.26%. The cotton index 328 changed from 3281 to 3280, with a change of 0.05%. The price of cotton in Xinjiang increased from 15100.0 yuan to 15250.0 yuan, with a change of 0.99%. [3] Spread Quick View - SR01 - 05 increased from 33.0 to 34.0, with a change of 3.03%. SR05 - 09 increased from - 79.0 to - 45.0, with a change of - 43.04%. SR09 - 01 decreased from 46.0 to 11.0, with a change of - 76.09%. CF01 - 05 remained unchanged at 45.0, with a change of 0.00%. CF05 - 09 decreased from 275.0 to 270.0, with a change of - 1.82%. CF09 - 01 increased from - 320.0 to - 315.0, with a change of - 1.56%. [3] - The basis of sugar 01 decreased from 228.0 to 225.0, with a change of - 1.32%. The basis of sugar 05 decreased from 261.0 to 259.0, with a change of - 0.77%. The basis of sugar 09 increased from 182.0 to 214.0, with a change of 17.58%. The basis of cotton 01 increased from 1234.0 to 1267.0, with a change of 2.67%. The basis of cotton 05 increased from 1279.0 to 1312.0, with a change of 2.58%. The basis of cotton 09 increased from 1554.0 to 1582.0, with a change of 1.80%. [3] Import Prices - The price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 78.9 on August 26 and 27, 2025, with a change of 0.00%. [3] Profit Margin - The profit of sugar imports remained unchanged at 1516.0 on August 26 and 27, 2025, with a change of 0.00%. [3] Options - For SR601C5600, the implied volatility is 0.0854, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying SR601 is 6.39. For SR601P5600, the implied volatility is 0.0837. For CF601C14000, the implied volatility is 0.1079, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying CF601 is 5.66. For CF601P14000, the implied volatility is 0.1044. [3] Inventory Warehouse Receipts - The number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 15315.0 on August 26, 2025, to 14906.0 on August 27, 2025, with a change of - 2.67%. The number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 6977.0 to 6859.0, with a change of - 1.69%. [3]