商品研究 | 走势评级： | 白糖——震荡 | | --- | --- | | | 棉花——震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 巴西供应预期增加，白糖盘整 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-10-22 报告内容摘要: 白糖：受暑期冷饮需求带动，食糖消费季节性回暖。由于国内外价差扩大， 近期食糖进口增长明显。 棉花：8 月新疆和长江流域棉区气温偏高、降水偏少，棉花遭受高温热害风 险较高。当前棉花商业库存持续下降，同时棉纺织旺季即将到来，棉价存在 底部支撑。 库存仓单：郑糖仓单 8376.0 张，涨跌幅为-0.37%；郑棉仓单 2579.0 张， 涨跌幅为-0.73%。 结论： 策略建议：观望为主 风险提示：全球贸易前景不明 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 白糖：8 月份内蒙古降雨偏多，不利于甜菜糖分积累及起收，糖厂开机时间 推迟，对甜菜糖产量 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar is supported by supply - demand data, with seasonal consumption recovery due to summer cold - drink demand and significant increase in recent sugar imports. The impact on beet sugar production and post - typhoon sugarcane growth in main producing areas need further attention. [1][3] - Cotton has bottom - line support as commercial inventory is decreasing and the cotton textile peak season is approaching. Although some areas have good growth, the cotton price is expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan with a potential downward risk after centralized listing. [1][3] - The recommended strategy is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - On the futures market, the U.S. sugar closed at 15.77 with a change of 1.55%, and the U.S. cotton closed at 64.19 with a change of - 0.16%. [1] - In the spot market, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5770.0 yuan, the Kunming sugar spot price was 5740.0 yuan, and the Xinjiang cotton spot price was 14500.0 yuan. [1] Supply - Demand Situation - Sugar: Driven by summer cold - drink demand, sugar consumption has a seasonal recovery, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening domestic - foreign price difference. [1] - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increased the risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton. The current commercial cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cotton textile peak season is coming. [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 8407.0, with a change of - 0.13%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts were 2598.0, with a change of - 2.07%. [2] Data Overview - **External Market Quotes**: From October 19 to 20, 2025, the U.S. sugar rose from 15.53 to 15.77 with a change of 1.55%, and the U.S. cotton fell from 64.29 to 64.19 with a change of - 0.16%. [4] - **Spot Prices**: From October 17 to 20, 2025, the Nanning and Kunming sugar prices both decreased by 0.35%, the cotton index 328 remained unchanged, and the Xinjiang cotton price remained at 14500.0 yuan. [4] - **Price Spread Overview**: There were various changes in sugar and cotton contract spreads and basis from October 19 - 20, 2025. For example, SR01 - 05 increased by 11.43%, and the cotton 09 basis decreased by 12.12%. [4] - **Import Prices**: The cotton cotlookA remained at 75.1 from October 17 - 20, 2025. [4] - **Profit Space**: The sugar import profit remained at 1567.5 from October 17 - 20, 2025. [4] - **Options**: The implied volatilities of SR601C5400, SR601P5400, CF601C13400, and CF601P13400 were 0.0763, 0.0762, 0.0791, and 0.0796 respectively. [4] - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: From October 17 - 20, 2025, sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 8418.0 to 8407.0 with a change of - 0.13%, and cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 2653.0 to 2598.0 with a change of - 2.07%. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The effect of anti-involution is minimal, and the year-on-year growth rates of PPI and M1 are rising due to low bases. The economic data in October is crucial. Exports maintained resilience in September, but the growth rate is expected to decline significantly in Q4. The central government has allocated 500 billion yuan to local governments, and the economic growth rate is expected to pick up in Q4 [1]. - The Fourth Plenary Session is expected to focus on emerging technology, supply chain security, and economic restructuring. The "15th Five-Year Plan" will provide specific policy measures. Sino-US relations are at a critical juncture, and the market may be hit if the leaders do not meet in late October or early November [2]. - The sales area of new homes in 30 large and medium-sized cities has seasonally rebounded but is still far below the historical level. The housing market remains pessimistic. The bond market is expected to be volatile and bullish, with the stock market being the main risk [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Next Week's Key Focus: The Fourth Plenary Session and Sino-US Relations (1) Anti-involution Effect is Minimal, and the Domestic Economy Remains Sluggish - Exports grew by 8.3% year-on-year in September, continuing to show resilience. However, the growth rate is expected to decline in Q4 due to the high base. High-frequency data shows that exports in October may be lower than in September [12]. - The effect of anti-involution is minimal, as shown by the PPI. The year-on-year growth rate of PPI has been rising for five months, mainly due to the low base. The economic data in October is crucial [14]. - The year-on-year growth rate of M1 is also affected by the low base. The domestic economy remains weak, as shown by the social financing and credit data. The government has allocated 500 billion yuan to local governments, and the economic growth rate is expected to pick up in Q4 [17]. (2) The 15th Five-Year Plan and Sino-US Relations - The Fourth Plenary Session is expected to focus on emerging technology, supply chain security, and economic restructuring. The "15th Five-Year Plan" will provide specific policy measures [21]. - Sino-US relations are at a critical juncture, with the leaders expected to meet during the APEC Summit in late October or early November. The market may be hit if the leaders do not meet and the US imposes 100% tariffs. China will implement new rare earth export control measures on December 1 [21]. 2. Real Estate Market Tracking: New Home Sales are Far Below the Seasonal Level - The sales area of new homes in 30 large and medium-sized cities has seasonally rebounded but is still far below the historical level. First-tier cities are weak, second-tier cities are similar to last year, and third-tier cities are higher than in 2023 [3]. - The listing price index of second-hand homes has continued to decline, with the decline accelerating in second- and third-tier cities. The overall trend of the real estate market remains pessimistic [3]. 3. Treasury Bonds: Continue to Run Strongly - The bond market has been volatile this week, with the Sino-US confrontation increasing market risk aversion and benefiting the bond market. The bond market is expected to be volatile and bullish, with the stock market being the main risk [34].

| 走势评级： | 白糖——震荡 | | --- | --- | | | 棉花——震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 受美银行业震荡影响，白糖盘整为主 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-10-20 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 资讯：南宁白糖现货价 5790.0 元，昆明白糖现货价 5760.0 元，新疆棉花 现货价 14500.0 元。 软商品日报 商品研究 棉花：8 月新疆和长江流域棉区气温偏高、降水偏少，棉花遭受高温热害风 险较高。当前棉花商业库存持续下降，同时棉纺织旺季即将到来，棉价存在 底部支撑。 库存仓单：郑糖仓单 8418.0 张，涨跌幅为-0.24%；郑棉仓单 2653.0 张， 涨跌幅为-2.61%。 结论： 白糖：8 月份内蒙古降雨偏多，不利于甜菜糖分积累及起收，糖厂开机时间 推迟，对甜菜糖产量的影响需进一步跟踪评估。9 月底 10 月初广东、广西 等甘蔗主产区受台风影响，出现甘蔗倒伏等现 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级： | 白糖——震荡 | | --- | --- | | | 棉花——震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 巴西中南部产量高于预期，白糖震荡为主 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-10-17 库存仓单：郑糖仓单 8438.0 张，涨跌幅为 0.00%；郑棉仓单 2724.0 张， 涨跌幅为-1.77%。 结论： 白糖：8 月份内蒙古降雨偏多，不利于甜菜糖分积累及起收，糖厂开机时间 推迟，对甜菜糖产量的影响需进一步跟踪评估。9 月底 10 月初广东、广西 等甘蔗主产区受台风影响，出现甘蔗倒伏等现象，后期需持续关注灾后甘蔗 生长恢复情况。 棉花：棉花生长期间气象条件适宜，局地单产和品质高于预期，部分地区进 入集中采收期，截至 10 月 6 日，新疆棉花采摘进度为 24.9%，同比提高 0.9 个百分点。籽棉开秤价同比持平略跌，集中上市后存在下行风险，棉花价格 预计运行 14000-16000 元区间。 策略建议 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级： | 白糖——震荡 | | --- | --- | | | 棉花——震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 国际贸易情绪紧张，软商品观望为主 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-10-15 报告内容摘要: 盘面：美白糖收 15.57，涨跌幅-3.29%。美棉花收 63.54，涨跌幅-0.36%。 棉花——震荡 供需： 白糖：受暑期冷饮需求带动，食糖消费季节性回暖。由于国内外价差扩大， 近期食糖进口增长明显。 棉花：8 月新疆和长江流域棉区气温偏高、降水偏少，棉花遭受高温热害风 险较高。当前棉花商业库存持续下降，同时棉纺织旺季即将到来，棉价存在 底部支撑。 库存仓单：郑糖仓单 8681.0 张，涨跌幅为 0.00%；郑棉仓单 2867.0 张， 涨跌幅为 0.00%。 结论： 白糖：8 月份内蒙古降雨偏多，不利于甜菜糖分积累及起收，糖厂开机时间 推迟，对甜菜糖产量的影响需进一步跟踪评估。9 月底 10 月初广东 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term trend rating for nickel is "shock", and the medium - term view is bullish [1] Core Viewpoints - The main operating range of nickel is between 118,000 and 126,000 yuan/ton; there is no upward breakthrough momentum in the short - term, but a bullish outlook in the medium - term. It is recommended to go long when the price approaches the lower limit [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro & Industry News - Botswana implemented a new mining regulation on October 1st, 2025. If the government chooses not to acquire the corresponding equity of a mining right, mining companies must sell 24% of the new mining right to local investors. The previous regulation allowed the government to acquire 15% of the mining right, and a higher proportion for diamond projects [1] 2. Supply - For nickel ore, the approaching rainy season in the Philippines and the previous riots in Indonesia may support the ore price. The nickel industry chain has been in an overall oversupply situation, and although the oversupply level may decline, the current situation is still one of oversupply, with relatively stable price ranges. For nickel iron, the profit in Indonesia is low but still positive, while domestic production is in the red. However, Indonesia's nickel - iron production continues to increase year - on - year. The production cost of electrowinning nickel for integrated pure - nickel enterprises has dropped to 118,500 yuan/ton, and the cost is relatively firm due to the support from the Indonesian government and the Philippines' rainy season. The bottom - line reference for pure nickel is about 118,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. Demand - The profit of the stainless - steel industry has recovered recently but is still in the loss range. The full - cost tracked by SMM is about 13,879 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow cost is about 13,017 yuan/ton. There is still an oversupply expectation in the nickel - ore end, which may drive down the nickel - iron price, and the stainless - steel price is still some distance from the cost support. In terms of demand, the real - estate market is at the bottom, small household appliances have recovered due to national subsidies, and there are few changes in tableware and medical devices. The substitution trend of infrastructure demand by 200 - series and 400 - series (low - quality stainless steel) continues. In the element competition, in a poor economic environment, the market pursues cost - effectiveness. Ternary batteries are gradually being replaced by lithium iron phosphate, and the high - nickel trend of ternary batteries has paused, with the proportion of 811 decreasing monthly and a shift to 622, which is generally unfavorable for nickel - element digestion, resulting in weak demand [2] 4. Inventory and Structure - LME nickel inventory continues to increase, and the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is increasing at an accelerated pace. The futures - spot and inter - month relationships maintain a Contango structure [3] 5. Other Data Analysis - The report also includes various data charts on macro - indicators, spot premiums and discounts, spreads, inventory, profit, and import profit and loss for metals such as lead, zinc, and nickel, which can be used for comprehensive analysis of the metals market [5][7][25][34][46][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is "Shock" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term fundamentals provide a basis for speculation on the supply side, but the consumer side does not support continuous price increases. The overall trend will show pulse - like increases, which may not be long - lasting [2] - The market's trading logic has shifted to macro trading. With the re - rise of inflation expectations and the unexpected decline of employment expectations, the Fed's interest rate cut is favorable for the non - ferrous metals sector [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Macro and Industry News - In September 2025, the domestic copper rod output was 99,960 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,100 tons or 2.09%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate in September was 50.9%, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%. Among them, enterprises with an annual capacity of over 50,000 tons had a capacity utilization rate of 61.94%, a month - on - month increase of 2.19%, while those with an annual capacity of less than 50,000 tons had a capacity utilization rate of 37.57%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.34%. The copper rod market in September was only slightly better than in August [1] Market Conditions - The main contract of Shanghai copper in the night session closed at 86,520 yuan/ton, with a gain of 2.02%. The trading volume was 85,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1,362 lots to 200,500 lots. Technically, the market continued to recover losses, showing a typical bullish arrangement [1] Supply - The processing fee for imported copper concentrate in smelters has basically remained flat after a sudden decline, and the smelters' losses have expanded. It is necessary to determine whether it is the increase in smelting output or the tightening of the ore end. The 8 - month output data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that domestic smelting has increased significantly, falsifying the previous view that the decline in processing fees was due to ore shortage [2] Demand - Among the primary consumption sectors, only the output of copper rods remains at a historically high level, while the outputs of copper tubes, cables, copper strips, etc. are all declining [2] Inventory and Structure - The total inventory of the three major exchanges has increased. The inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME have changed from rapid accumulation to slight depletion, while the Comex inventory has continued to accumulate rapidly, indicating the weakness of the demand side [2] Strategy Suggestion - Existing long positions should be held, and it is not advisable to open new positions for the time being [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc - Short - term Volatility [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side is fully loosening, the initial - stage consumption rebounds and then declines, showing short - term weakness. However, it is difficult to break through downward, and there are no more negative factors to hype. Meanwhile, the progress of European natural gas winter storage is slow, and overseas zinc prices are firm [3] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro & Industry News - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group predicts that the global refined zinc demand will grow by 1.1% in 2025, reaching 13.71 million tons, and further grow by 1% in 2026, reaching 13.86 million tons. The global refined zinc production is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2025, reaching 13.8 million tons, and further grow by 2.4% in 2026, reaching 14.13 million tons. The global refined zinc supply surplus is expected to be 85,000 tons in 2025 and expand to 271,000 tons in 2026 [1] 3.2 Supply - The mine - end production remains at a high level, and imports are rapidly recovering. The total supply is at the highest level in the same period of history. The zinc ore port inventory has significantly decreased since August, indicating that the smelting end is starting to gain momentum. The total supply at the smelting end remains high, and the smelting - end profit also supports the high - level production. The profit of mining enterprises has dropped to around 4,000, but it is still at a relatively medium - high level. The domestic TC price has not declined, and the imported TC has further increased. Although the profit of integrated enterprises has shrunk, it is still not low. Under the current processing fees, the possibility of production cuts for both pure smelting enterprises and integrated enterprises is extremely small, and the supply side generally shows a loosening trend [2] 3.3 Demand - The operating rate of zinc oxide has slightly increased, and the monthly operating rate is at the second - lowest level in the same period of history. For die - casting alloys, the operating rate has maintained a slight decline. Currently, the operating rate is lower than that of last year, showing both month - on - month and year - on - year decreases. The weekly output is currently at the middle level in the same period of history. Considering the demand boost brought by the traditional consumption peak season, the subsequent output may rebound, but zinc oxide and die - casting alloys have a low proportion in the consumption end, so the consumption boost for zinc ingots will be relatively limited. The overall profit level of galvanizing has decreased, but losses rarely occur. Currently, the profit margin of galvanizing has rebounded. From the trend, the profit margin is approaching the break - even point, which may reduce the production enthusiasm of galvanizing manufacturers. It is expected that after entering October, it will be difficult for the output to increase significantly. At the same time, the steel mill inventory and redemption inventory of galvanizing have increased simultaneously, indicating that the terminal demand is still weak [3] 3.4 Inventory and Structure - The LME inventory has continuously decreased, but the domestic social inventory and SHFE inventory have continuously increased. Except for the main contract, the spot - futures and inter - month structures maintain the Contango structure [3] 3.5 Operation Suggestion - Adopt a wait - and - see approach [4]

商品研究 | 走势评级： | 白糖——震荡 | | --- | --- | | | 棉花——震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 美元波动引发美棉震荡，棉花观望为主 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-10-14 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 资讯：南宁白糖现货价 5800.0 元，昆明白糖现货价 5810.0 元，新疆棉花 现货价 14650.0 元。 软商品日报 盘面：美白糖收 15.57，涨跌幅-3.29%。美棉花收 63.54，涨跌幅-0.36%。 棉花——震荡 供需： 白糖：受暑期冷饮需求带动，食糖消费季节性回暖。由于国内外价差扩大， 近期食糖进口增长明显。 棉花：8 月新疆和长江流域棉区气温偏高、降水偏少，棉花遭受高温热害风 险较高。当前棉花商业库存持续下降，同时棉纺织旺季即将到来，棉价存在 底部支撑。 库存仓单：郑糖仓单 8681.0 张，涨跌幅为-2.10%；郑棉仓单 2867.0 张， 涨跌幅为 ...