Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks during the summer vacation, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly. The impact of rainfall in Inner Mongolia and typhoons in Guangdong and Guangxi on sugar production needs further tracking and evaluation. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [1][3] - High temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August pose a high risk of heat damage to cotton. The current commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, there is bottom support for cotton prices. Cotton growth conditions are suitable, but there is a risk of price decline after the centralized listing of cotton. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5,770.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5,740.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14,550.0 yuan [1] Market - US sugar closed at 15.24, with a change of - 3.36%. US cotton closed at 64.41, with a change of 0.34% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for cold drinks during the summer vacation, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered. Due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets, recent sugar imports have increased significantly [1] - Cotton: High temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August pose a high risk of heat damage to cotton. The current commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, there is bottom support for cotton prices [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 8,376.0, with a change of - 0.37%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 2,579.0, with a change of - 0.73% [2] Conclusion - Sugar: In August, excessive rainfall in Inner Mongolia was unfavorable for sugar beet sugar accumulation and harvesting, and the opening time of sugar mills was postponed. In late September and early October, typhoons in Guangdong, Guangxi and other major sugar - cane producing areas caused sugar - cane lodging. The post - disaster growth and recovery of sugar - cane need continuous attention [3] - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the cotton growth period were suitable, and the yield per unit area and quality in some areas were higher than expected. As of October 6, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton was flat or slightly lower year - on - year, and there was a risk of decline after the centralized listing. Cotton prices are expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan [3] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [3] Data Quick View - **Foreign Market Quotes**: US sugar decreased from 15.77 to 15.24, a change of - 3.36%; US cotton increased from 64.19 to 64.41, a change of 0.34% [4] - **Spot Prices**: Nanning and Kunming sugar spot prices remained unchanged; the cotton index 328 decreased slightly, and Xinjiang cotton increased from 14,500.0 to 14,550.0, a change of 0.34% [4] - **Price Difference Quick View**: The price differences of SR01 - 05, SR09 - 01, etc. changed to varying degrees, while some remained unchanged [4] - **Import Prices**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged [4] - **Profit Margin**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged [4] - **Options**: The implied volatilities of SR601C5400, SR601P5400, CF601C13600, and CF601P13600 are given, along with the historical volatilities of relevant futures [4] - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: Sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 8,407.0 to 8,376.0, a change of - 0.37%; cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 2,598.0 to 2,579.0, a change of - 0.73% [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar is supported by supply - demand data, with seasonal consumption recovery due to summer cold - drink demand and significant increase in recent sugar imports. The impact on beet sugar production and post - typhoon sugarcane growth in main producing areas need further attention. [1][3] - Cotton has bottom - line support as commercial inventory is decreasing and the cotton textile peak season is approaching. Although some areas have good growth, the cotton price is expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan with a potential downward risk after centralized listing. [1][3] - The recommended strategy is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - On the futures market, the U.S. sugar closed at 15.77 with a change of 1.55%, and the U.S. cotton closed at 64.19 with a change of - 0.16%. [1] - In the spot market, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5770.0 yuan, the Kunming sugar spot price was 5740.0 yuan, and the Xinjiang cotton spot price was 14500.0 yuan. [1] Supply - Demand Situation - Sugar: Driven by summer cold - drink demand, sugar consumption has a seasonal recovery, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening domestic - foreign price difference. [1] - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increased the risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton. The current commercial cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cotton textile peak season is coming. [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 8407.0, with a change of - 0.13%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts were 2598.0, with a change of - 2.07%. [2] Data Overview - **External Market Quotes**: From October 19 to 20, 2025, the U.S. sugar rose from 15.53 to 15.77 with a change of 1.55%, and the U.S. cotton fell from 64.29 to 64.19 with a change of - 0.16%. [4] - **Spot Prices**: From October 17 to 20, 2025, the Nanning and Kunming sugar prices both decreased by 0.35%, the cotton index 328 remained unchanged, and the Xinjiang cotton price remained at 14500.0 yuan. [4] - **Price Spread Overview**: There were various changes in sugar and cotton contract spreads and basis from October 19 - 20, 2025. For example, SR01 - 05 increased by 11.43%, and the cotton 09 basis decreased by 12.12%. [4] - **Import Prices**: The cotton cotlookA remained at 75.1 from October 17 - 20, 2025. [4] - **Profit Space**: The sugar import profit remained at 1567.5 from October 17 - 20, 2025. [4] - **Options**: The implied volatilities of SR601C5400, SR601P5400, CF601C13400, and CF601P13400 were 0.0763, 0.0762, 0.0791, and 0.0796 respectively. [4] - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: From October 17 - 20, 2025, sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 8418.0 to 8407.0 with a change of - 0.13%, and cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 2653.0 to 2598.0 with a change of - 2.07%. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The effect of anti-involution is minimal, and the year-on-year growth rates of PPI and M1 are rising due to low bases. The economic data in October is crucial. Exports maintained resilience in September, but the growth rate is expected to decline significantly in Q4. The central government has allocated 500 billion yuan to local governments, and the economic growth rate is expected to pick up in Q4 [1]. - The Fourth Plenary Session is expected to focus on emerging technology, supply chain security, and economic restructuring. The "15th Five-Year Plan" will provide specific policy measures. Sino-US relations are at a critical juncture, and the market may be hit if the leaders do not meet in late October or early November [2]. - The sales area of new homes in 30 large and medium-sized cities has seasonally rebounded but is still far below the historical level. The housing market remains pessimistic. The bond market is expected to be volatile and bullish, with the stock market being the main risk [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Next Week's Key Focus: The Fourth Plenary Session and Sino-US Relations (1) Anti-involution Effect is Minimal, and the Domestic Economy Remains Sluggish - Exports grew by 8.3% year-on-year in September, continuing to show resilience. However, the growth rate is expected to decline in Q4 due to the high base. High-frequency data shows that exports in October may be lower than in September [12]. - The effect of anti-involution is minimal, as shown by the PPI. The year-on-year growth rate of PPI has been rising for five months, mainly due to the low base. The economic data in October is crucial [14]. - The year-on-year growth rate of M1 is also affected by the low base. The domestic economy remains weak, as shown by the social financing and credit data. The government has allocated 500 billion yuan to local governments, and the economic growth rate is expected to pick up in Q4 [17]. (2) The 15th Five-Year Plan and Sino-US Relations - The Fourth Plenary Session is expected to focus on emerging technology, supply chain security, and economic restructuring. The "15th Five-Year Plan" will provide specific policy measures [21]. - Sino-US relations are at a critical juncture, with the leaders expected to meet during the APEC Summit in late October or early November. The market may be hit if the leaders do not meet and the US imposes 100% tariffs. China will implement new rare earth export control measures on December 1 [21]. 2. Real Estate Market Tracking: New Home Sales are Far Below the Seasonal Level - The sales area of new homes in 30 large and medium-sized cities has seasonally rebounded but is still far below the historical level. First-tier cities are weak, second-tier cities are similar to last year, and third-tier cities are higher than in 2023 [3]. - The listing price index of second-hand homes has continued to decline, with the decline accelerating in second- and third-tier cities. The overall trend of the real estate market remains pessimistic [3]. 3. Treasury Bonds: Continue to Run Strongly - The bond market has been volatile this week, with the Sino-US confrontation increasing market risk aversion and benefiting the bond market. The bond market is expected to be volatile and bullish, with the stock market being the main risk [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks in summer, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widened price gap between domestic and foreign markets. The impact of rainfall in Inner Mongolia on sugar beet production and the growth recovery of sugarcane after typhoon disasters in Guangdong and Guangxi need further attention [1][3]. - High temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August pose a high risk of heat damage to cotton. With the continuous decline of commercial cotton inventory and the approaching peak season of cotton textile industry, there is a bottom - support for cotton prices. The cotton growth period has suitable meteorological conditions, and the price is expected to operate in the range of 14,000 - 16,000 yuan [1][3]. - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5,790 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5,760 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14,500 yuan [1] 3.2 Disk - U.S. sugar closed at 15.53 with a change of 0.00%. U.S. cotton closed at 64.29 with a change of 0.00% [1] 3.3 Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for cold drinks in summer, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widened price gap between domestic and foreign markets [1] - Cotton: High temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August pose a high risk of heat damage to cotton. The current commercial cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, and with the approaching peak season of cotton textile industry, there is a bottom - support for cotton prices [1] 3.4 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 8,418.0, with a change of - 0.24%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 2,653.0, with a change of - 2.61% [2] 3.5 Conclusion - Sugar: In August, excessive rainfall in Inner Mongolia is not conducive to the sugar accumulation and harvesting of sugar beets, and the start - up time of sugar mills is postponed. In late September and early October, sugarcane in major producing areas such as Guangdong and Guangxi was affected by typhoons, and the post - disaster growth recovery needs continuous attention [3] - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the cotton growth period are suitable, and the yield and quality in some areas are higher than expected. As of October 6, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang is 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton is slightly lower year - on - year, and there is a downward risk after the centralized listing. The cotton price is expected to operate in the range of 14,000 - 16,000 yuan [3] 3.6 Data Quick View - **External Market Quotes**: U.S. sugar and cotton prices remained unchanged from October 18 to 19, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] - **Spot Prices**: Sugar spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged from October 16 to 17, 2025, with a change of 0.00%. The cotton index 328 increased by 0.10%, and Xinjiang cotton spot price remained unchanged [4] - **Price Difference Quick View**: All price differences and basis of sugar and cotton remained unchanged from October 18 to 19, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] - **Import Prices**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged from October 16 to 17, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] - **Profit Margin**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged from October 16 to 17, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] - **Options**: The implied volatility and historical volatility of sugar and cotton options are provided [4] - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: From October 16 to 17, 2025, sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 0.24%, and cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 2.61% [4]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for sugar is "sideways", and for cotton is also "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks during the summer. Sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets. The impact of adverse weather on sugar beet and cane production needs further assessment. Sugar prices are expected to move sideways [1][3] - In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increased the risk of heat damage to cotton. Current commercial cotton inventories are declining, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, there is support at the bottom for cotton prices. Cotton prices are expected to range between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan [1][3] - The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Information - Nanning's spot sugar price is 5,790 yuan, Kunming's is 5,760 yuan, and Xinjiang's spot cotton price is 14,500 yuan [1] Market - The U.S. sugar closed at 15.85, up 1.15%. The U.S. cotton closed at 63.78, down 0.08% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks during the summer. Sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets [1] - In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increased the risk of heat damage to cotton. Current commercial cotton inventories are declining, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, there is support at the bottom for cotton prices [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 8,438, with a change of 0.00%. Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 2,724, down 1.77% [2] Conclusion - In August, excessive rainfall in Inner Mongolia was unfavorable for sugar beet sugar accumulation and harvesting, delaying the sugar factory's start - up time. The impact on sugar beet sugar production needs further assessment. In late September and early October, typhoons in major sugar cane - producing areas such as Guangdong and Guangxi caused sugar cane lodging, and the post - disaster recovery of sugar cane growth needs continuous attention [3] - The meteorological conditions during the cotton growth period were suitable, with local yields and quality higher than expected. As of October 6, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton was flat to slightly lower year - on - year, and there is a risk of decline after the centralized listing. Cotton prices are expected to range between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan [3] Data Overview External Quotes - The U.S. sugar price rose from 15.67 to 15.85, up 1.15%. The U.S. cotton price fell from 63.83 to 63.78, down 0.08% [4] Spot Prices - Nanning's sugar price remained at 5,790 yuan, Kunming's sugar price fell from 5,770 to 5,760 yuan, down 0.17%. The cotton index 328 fell from 3,281 to 3,280, down 0.07%. Xinjiang's cotton price fell from 14,600 to 14,500 yuan, down 0.68% [4] Spread Overview - Various spreads of sugar and cotton futures contracts showed different changes, such as SR01 - 05 up 6.25%, SR05 - 09 down 5.56%, etc. [4] Import Prices - The cotton cotlookA price remained at 74.85, with a change of 0.00% [4] Profit Margins - The sugar import profit remained at 1,482 yuan, with a change of 0.00% [4] Options - The implied volatility of sugar and cotton options contracts was provided, such as SR601C5400 with an implied volatility of 0.0847 [4] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Sugar warehouse receipts remained at 8,438, with a change of 0.00%. Cotton warehouse receipts fell from 2,773 to 2,724, down 1.77% [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Amidst tense international trade sentiment, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach for soft commodities [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5800.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5780.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14650.0 yuan [1] - U.S. sugar closed at 15.57, with a change of - 3.29%. U.S. cotton closed at 63.54, with a change of - 0.36% [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand Situation - Sugar: Driven by the summer demand for cold drinks, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered. Due to the widening price difference between domestic and international markets, recent sugar imports have increased significantly [1] - Cotton: In August, the temperature in the cotton - growing areas of Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was relatively high and precipitation was low, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and as the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, there is a bottom - support for cotton prices [1] 3.3 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 8681.0, with a change of 0.00%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 2867.0, with a change of 0.00% [2] 3.4 Conclusion - Sugar: In August, there was excessive rainfall in Inner Mongolia, which was unfavorable for sugar beet sugar accumulation and harvesting, and the sugar factory's start - up time was postponed. The impact on sugar beet sugar production needs further tracking and evaluation. At the end of September and early October, the main sugar - cane producing areas such as Guangdong and Guangxi were affected by typhoons, resulting in sugar - cane lodging. The post - disaster growth and recovery of sugar cane need continuous attention [3] - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the cotton - growing period were suitable, and the yield per unit area and quality in some areas were higher than expected. Some areas have entered the centralized harvesting period. As of October 6, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton was flat to slightly lower year - on - year, and there is a downward risk after the centralized listing. Cotton prices are expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan [3] 3.5 Strategy Recommendation - Adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] 3.6 Data Overview - **Outer - market Quotes**: From October 12 to 13, 2025, U.S. sugar dropped from 16.1 to 15.57, a decrease of 3.29%; U.S. cotton dropped from 63.77 to 63.54, a decrease of 0.36% [4] - **Spot Prices**: From October 13 to 14, 2025, Nanning sugar remained at 5800.0 yuan, Kunming sugar dropped from 5810.0 to 5780.0 yuan, a decrease of 0.52%; the cotton index 328 remained at 3280, and Xinjiang cotton remained at 14650.0 yuan [4] - **Spread Overview**: There were various changes in sugar and cotton spreads from October 12 to 13, 2025, such as SR01 - 05 increasing by 18.52%, SR05 - 09 increasing by 266.67%, etc [4] - **Import Prices**: From October 13 to 14, 2025, the cotton cotlookA remained at 75.3 [4] - **Profit Margin**: From October 13 to 14, 2025, the sugar import profit remained at 1459.0 [4] - **Options**: The implied volatility of SR601C5500 is 0.0844, and its futures underlying is SR601 with a historical volatility of 6.69; the implied volatility of CF601C13200 is 0.0971, and its futures underlying is CF601 with a historical volatility of 7.76 [4] - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: From October 13 to 14, 2025, sugar warehouse receipts remained at 8681.0, and cotton warehouse receipts remained at 2867.0 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term trend rating for nickel is "shock", and the medium - term view is bullish [1] Core Viewpoints - The main operating range of nickel is between 118,000 and 126,000 yuan/ton; there is no upward breakthrough momentum in the short - term, but a bullish outlook in the medium - term. It is recommended to go long when the price approaches the lower limit [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro & Industry News - Botswana implemented a new mining regulation on October 1st, 2025. If the government chooses not to acquire the corresponding equity of a mining right, mining companies must sell 24% of the new mining right to local investors. The previous regulation allowed the government to acquire 15% of the mining right, and a higher proportion for diamond projects [1] 2. Supply - For nickel ore, the approaching rainy season in the Philippines and the previous riots in Indonesia may support the ore price. The nickel industry chain has been in an overall oversupply situation, and although the oversupply level may decline, the current situation is still one of oversupply, with relatively stable price ranges. For nickel iron, the profit in Indonesia is low but still positive, while domestic production is in the red. However, Indonesia's nickel - iron production continues to increase year - on - year. The production cost of electrowinning nickel for integrated pure - nickel enterprises has dropped to 118,500 yuan/ton, and the cost is relatively firm due to the support from the Indonesian government and the Philippines' rainy season. The bottom - line reference for pure nickel is about 118,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. Demand - The profit of the stainless - steel industry has recovered recently but is still in the loss range. The full - cost tracked by SMM is about 13,879 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow cost is about 13,017 yuan/ton. There is still an oversupply expectation in the nickel - ore end, which may drive down the nickel - iron price, and the stainless - steel price is still some distance from the cost support. In terms of demand, the real - estate market is at the bottom, small household appliances have recovered due to national subsidies, and there are few changes in tableware and medical devices. The substitution trend of infrastructure demand by 200 - series and 400 - series (low - quality stainless steel) continues. In the element competition, in a poor economic environment, the market pursues cost - effectiveness. Ternary batteries are gradually being replaced by lithium iron phosphate, and the high - nickel trend of ternary batteries has paused, with the proportion of 811 decreasing monthly and a shift to 622, which is generally unfavorable for nickel - element digestion, resulting in weak demand [2] 4. Inventory and Structure - LME nickel inventory continues to increase, and the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is increasing at an accelerated pace. The futures - spot and inter - month relationships maintain a Contango structure [3] 5. Other Data Analysis - The report also includes various data charts on macro - indicators, spot premiums and discounts, spreads, inventory, profit, and import profit and loss for metals such as lead, zinc, and nickel, which can be used for comprehensive analysis of the metals market [5][7][25][34][46][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is "Shock" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term fundamentals provide a basis for speculation on the supply side, but the consumer side does not support continuous price increases. The overall trend will show pulse - like increases, which may not be long - lasting [2] - The market's trading logic has shifted to macro trading. With the re - rise of inflation expectations and the unexpected decline of employment expectations, the Fed's interest rate cut is favorable for the non - ferrous metals sector [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Macro and Industry News - In September 2025, the domestic copper rod output was 99,960 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,100 tons or 2.09%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate in September was 50.9%, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%. Among them, enterprises with an annual capacity of over 50,000 tons had a capacity utilization rate of 61.94%, a month - on - month increase of 2.19%, while those with an annual capacity of less than 50,000 tons had a capacity utilization rate of 37.57%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.34%. The copper rod market in September was only slightly better than in August [1] Market Conditions - The main contract of Shanghai copper in the night session closed at 86,520 yuan/ton, with a gain of 2.02%. The trading volume was 85,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1,362 lots to 200,500 lots. Technically, the market continued to recover losses, showing a typical bullish arrangement [1] Supply - The processing fee for imported copper concentrate in smelters has basically remained flat after a sudden decline, and the smelters' losses have expanded. It is necessary to determine whether it is the increase in smelting output or the tightening of the ore end. The 8 - month output data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that domestic smelting has increased significantly, falsifying the previous view that the decline in processing fees was due to ore shortage [2] Demand - Among the primary consumption sectors, only the output of copper rods remains at a historically high level, while the outputs of copper tubes, cables, copper strips, etc. are all declining [2] Inventory and Structure - The total inventory of the three major exchanges has increased. The inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME have changed from rapid accumulation to slight depletion, while the Comex inventory has continued to accumulate rapidly, indicating the weakness of the demand side [2] Strategy Suggestion - Existing long positions should be held, and it is not advisable to open new positions for the time being [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc - Short - term Volatility [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side is fully loosening, the initial - stage consumption rebounds and then declines, showing short - term weakness. However, it is difficult to break through downward, and there are no more negative factors to hype. Meanwhile, the progress of European natural gas winter storage is slow, and overseas zinc prices are firm [3] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro & Industry News - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group predicts that the global refined zinc demand will grow by 1.1% in 2025, reaching 13.71 million tons, and further grow by 1% in 2026, reaching 13.86 million tons. The global refined zinc production is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2025, reaching 13.8 million tons, and further grow by 2.4% in 2026, reaching 14.13 million tons. The global refined zinc supply surplus is expected to be 85,000 tons in 2025 and expand to 271,000 tons in 2026 [1] 3.2 Supply - The mine - end production remains at a high level, and imports are rapidly recovering. The total supply is at the highest level in the same period of history. The zinc ore port inventory has significantly decreased since August, indicating that the smelting end is starting to gain momentum. The total supply at the smelting end remains high, and the smelting - end profit also supports the high - level production. The profit of mining enterprises has dropped to around 4,000, but it is still at a relatively medium - high level. The domestic TC price has not declined, and the imported TC has further increased. Although the profit of integrated enterprises has shrunk, it is still not low. Under the current processing fees, the possibility of production cuts for both pure smelting enterprises and integrated enterprises is extremely small, and the supply side generally shows a loosening trend [2] 3.3 Demand - The operating rate of zinc oxide has slightly increased, and the monthly operating rate is at the second - lowest level in the same period of history. For die - casting alloys, the operating rate has maintained a slight decline. Currently, the operating rate is lower than that of last year, showing both month - on - month and year - on - year decreases. The weekly output is currently at the middle level in the same period of history. Considering the demand boost brought by the traditional consumption peak season, the subsequent output may rebound, but zinc oxide and die - casting alloys have a low proportion in the consumption end, so the consumption boost for zinc ingots will be relatively limited. The overall profit level of galvanizing has decreased, but losses rarely occur. Currently, the profit margin of galvanizing has rebounded. From the trend, the profit margin is approaching the break - even point, which may reduce the production enthusiasm of galvanizing manufacturers. It is expected that after entering October, it will be difficult for the output to increase significantly. At the same time, the steel mill inventory and redemption inventory of galvanizing have increased simultaneously, indicating that the terminal demand is still weak [3] 3.4 Inventory and Structure - The LME inventory has continuously decreased, but the domestic social inventory and SHFE inventory have continuously increased. Except for the main contract, the spot - futures and inter - month structures maintain the Contango structure [3] 3.5 Operation Suggestion - Adopt a wait - and - see approach [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Volatility [1] - Cotton - Volatility [1] Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends of sugar and cotton, including supply - demand, price fluctuations, and inventory changes, and suggests a wait - and - see strategy [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5800.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5810.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14650.0 yuan [1] Market Trends - US sugar closed at 15.57 with a change of - 3.29%, and US cotton closed at 63.54 with a change of - 0.36% [1] Supply - Demand Analysis - Sugar: Driven by summer cold - drink demand, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets [1] - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increased the risk of heat damage to cotton. Current commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, there is bottom - support for cotton prices [1] Inventory Information - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 8681.0, a change of - 2.10%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 2867.0, a change of - 2.55% [2] Conclusions - Sugar: In August, excessive rainfall in Inner Mongolia was unfavorable for sugar - beet sugar accumulation and harvesting, delaying sugar - factory operations. Typhoons in September and early October affected sugar - cane in Guangdong and Guangxi, and the post - disaster recovery of sugar - cane growth needs continuous attention [3] - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the cotton - growing period were suitable, with some areas having higher yields and quality than expected. As of October 6, the cotton - picking progress in Xinjiang was 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton was flat to slightly lower year - on - year, and there is a downward risk after centralized listing. Cotton prices are expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan [3] Strategy Suggestions - Wait - and - see [3] Data Overview Outer - Market Quotes - US sugar: From 16.1 on October 12, 2025, to 15.57 on October 13, 2025, a change of - 3.29% - US cotton: From 63.77 on October 12, 2025, to 63.54 on October 13, 2025, a change of - 0.36% [4] Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning): 5800.0 yuan on both October 11 and 13, 2025, a change of 0.00% - Sugar (Kunming): 5810.0 yuan on both October 11 and 13, 2025, a change of 0.00% - Cotton Index 328: From 3281 on October 11, 2025, to 3280 on October 13, 2025, a change of 0.09% - Cotton (Xinjiang): 14650.0 yuan on both October 11 and 13, 2025, a change of 0.00% [4] Spread Overview - SR01 - 05: From 27.0 on October 12, 2025, to 32.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 18.52% - SR05 - 09: From - 3.0 on October 12, 2025, to - 11.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 266.67% - SR09 - 01: From - 24.0 on October 12, 2025, to - 21.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of - 12.50% - CF01 - 05: From - 50.0 on October 12, 2025, to - 60.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 20.00% - CF05 - 09: From - 175.0 on October 12, 2025, to - 170.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of - 2.86% - CF09 - 01: From 225.0 on October 12, 2025, to 230.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 2.22% [4] Basis - Sugar 01 basis: From 314.0 on October 12, 2025, to 340.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 8.28% - Sugar 05 basis: From 341.0 on October 12, 2025, to 372.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 9.09% - Sugar 09 basis: From 338.0 on October 12, 2025, to 361.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 6.80% - Cotton 01 basis: From 1450.0 on October 12, 2025, to 1489.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 2.69% - Cotton 05 basis: From 1400.0 on October 12, 2025, to 1429.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 2.07% - Cotton 09 basis: From 1225.0 on October 12, 2025, to 1259.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 2.78% [4] Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA: 76.05 on both October 11 and 13, 2025, a change of 0.00% [4] Profit Margins - Sugar import profit: 1459.0 on both October 11 and 13, 2025, a change of 0.00% [4] Options - SR601C5500: Implied volatility 0.0844, futures underlying SR601, historical volatility 6.69 - SR601P5500: Implied volatility 0.0806 - CF601C13200: Implied volatility 0.0971, futures underlying CF601, historical volatility 7.76 - CF601P13200: Implied volatility 0.0966 [4] Inventory Warehouse Receipts - Sugar: From 8867.0 on October 11, 2025, to 8681.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of - 2.10% - Cotton: From 2942.0 on October 11, 2025, to 2867.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of - 2.55% [4]