1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "Sideways" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, making it prone to pests and diseases, which require early prevention. Internationally, continued attention should be paid to the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1] - Cotton: Most cotton-producing areas in the country have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, and the number of high-temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off-season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Overview - **External Market Quotes**: On July 21 - 22, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 0.61% from $16.36 to $16.26, and the price of US cotton increased by 0.25% from $68.09 to $68.26 [3] - **Spot Prices**: From July 21 - 22, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning decreased by 0.17% from 6060.0 to 6050.0, remained unchanged in Kunming at 5920.0. The cotton index 328 decreased by 0.26% from 3281 to 3280, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang increased by 0.65% from 15400.0 to 15500.0 [3] - **Spread Overview**: From July 21 - 22, 2025, most sugar and cotton spreads changed, with some increasing and some decreasing. For example, SR01 - 05 decreased by 9.26% from 54.0 to 49.0, and CF01 - 05 decreased by 11.11% from 45.0 to 40.0 [3] - **Import Prices**: The price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 79.45 from July 21 - 22, 2025 [3] - **Profit Margins**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1613.0 from July 21 - 22, 2025 [3] - **Options**: Information on various sugar and cotton option contracts, including implied volatility and historical volatility, is provided [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: From July 21 - 22, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 0.36% from 21437.0 to 21359.0, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.68% from 9501.0 to 9436.0 [3] 3.2 Company Introduction - The report is produced by Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., a large - scale futures company in China. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has various memberships in multiple futures exchanges and is an observer member of relevant associations [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, market sentiment remains strong. Although there is hesitation during the market upswing, the willingness of funds to support the market is strong, and the retracement of the stock index is less than expected. Some funds are rushing ahead due to short - term pricing of medium - term factors. However, investors have significant differences at the current level, and a market consensus has not been formed. Considering the strong technical resistance at the March high and the expected weakening of China's economic data in the second half of the year, the timing for a new full - scale bull market has not arrived. Overall, the short - term baseline prediction is the preparation period for a bull market. Given the early entry of some funds, it is recommended to be cautious when going long this week (either wait and see or conduct intraday short - term long positions). If there is a sharp decline later, it can be regarded as a good opportunity to re - enter the market with long positions. In terms of style, a light - position left - hand layout for IH - IM can be started this week [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Stock Market Information - From 1998 to the end of the second quarter of 2025, Chinese public funds created a profit of 5.94 trillion yuan for holders. At the end of the second quarter, the market scale of public funds reached a new high of 33.73 trillion yuan. China's LPR in July remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the 1 - year variety at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year variety at 3.5%. Monetary policy has entered an observation period, and the unchanged LPR quote is in line with market expectations [4] 3.2 Stock Index Disk Review 3.2.1 Disk Tracking - In the previous trading day, the A - share market oscillated upwards. Among the four major indices, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 0.28%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.67%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.01%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.92%. In terms of sectors, building materials (+5.45%) and construction machinery (+4.00%) led the gains, while education (-0.79%) and banking (-0.77%) lagged. More than 4,000 stocks rose, and 130 stocks hit the daily limit, indicating a good profit - making effect [4] 3.2.2 Technical Tracking - The stock indices generally approached the March high. The daily and weekly lines have turned into a bullish trend, indicating short - term market strength, while the monthly line remains in an oscillating market [4] 3.2.3 Fund Flow - The trading volume of the A - share market yesterday increased to around 1.7 trillion yuan, and investor sentiment was moderately bullish [4] 3.3 Core Logic Summary - Short - term market sentiment is strong, but there are differences among investors. The start of a new full - scale bull market is not yet due to technical resistance and economic data expectations. It is recommended to be cautious when going long in the short - term, and a sharp decline can be an opportunity to re - enter the market. A light - position left - hand layout for IH - IM can be started this week [3] 3.4 Operation Suggestions 3.4.1 Futures Operation - In the short - term, the market is in a strong oscillation. Pay attention to the resistance at the March high. It is recommended that investors wait and see or conduct intraday short - term long positions. The styles of large - and small - cap stocks alternate, and a left - hand layout for IH - IM can be started this week [3] 3.4.2 Options Operation - The implied volatility of stock index options has slightly declined, with the at - the - money IV of the CSI 300 for the current month fluctuating between 13 - 14%. During the oscillation period, it is recommended to wait for the volatility to rise before intervening in short - term double - selling [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating for both coke and coking coal [1]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is currently dominated by the expectation of domestic supply - side policies. Before August 12th, the market is mainly focused on risk prevention. With the upcoming release of the steady - growth plan for ten key industries by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project, market sentiment has been boosted. In the short term, a bullish approach can be taken, but the risk of a callback should be watched [4]. - For coking coal, the mine output recovery is slow, while downstream replenishment enthusiasm is high. The inventory is shifting from mines to downstream. For coke, the first round of spot price increases has been implemented, and there are expectations for further increases. The supply - demand gap for coke is widening. If steel prices continue to rise, the industrial chain profits may be transmitted upstream [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Related News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that a steady - growth plan for ten key industries, including steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, is即将出台 [1]. - On July 19th, the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project officially started, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, six times that of the Three Gorges Project [1]. 3.2 Coking Coal 3.2.1 Price and Basis - The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is reported at 1,008 yuan/ton (+58). The active contract is reported at 1,006 yuan/ton (+80). The basis is 22 yuan/ton (-22), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 50 yuan/ton (-0.5) [1]. 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - The production recovery at the mine end is slower than expected, while demand remains flat. The operating rate of 523 mines is reported at 86.07% (+0.55), and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 62.85% (+0.53). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 72.9% (+0.18) [2]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, while downstream inventory is increasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 339.07 million tons (-38.11), and the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 191.54 million tons (-5.53). The inventory of 247 steel mills is 791.1 million tons (+8.17), and the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 790.19 million tons (+37.75). The port inventory is 321.5 million tons (-0.14) [2]. 3.3 Coke 3.3.1 Price and Basis - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1,270 yuan/ton (+0), and the second - round spot price increase has started. The active contract is reported at 1,603 yuan/ton (+85). The basis is - 237 yuan/ton (-85), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 51 yuan/ton (-6) [3]. 3.3.2 Supply and Demand - Demand has increased more than expected, and the supply - demand gap has widened. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 72.9% (+0.18). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 90.89% (+0.99), and the daily average pig iron output is 242.44 million tons (+2.63) [3]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, while downstream inventory is increasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 55.55 million tons (-4.03), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 638.99 million tons (+1.19), and the port inventory is 199.11 million tons (-0.97) [3]. 3.4 Strategy Recommendations - In the short term, a bullish approach can be taken, but if the market accelerates, the risk of a callback should be watched. For J09 and JM09, it is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and re - enter the market on pullbacks [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, which may lead to pests and diseases and requires early prevention. Internationally, it is necessary to continue to monitor the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Data Overview 3.1.1 Outer - Market Quotes - US sugar (USD): On July 20, 2025, it was 16.79, and on July 21, 2025, it was 16.36, with a decline of 2.56% [3]. - US cotton (USD): On July 20, 2025, it was 68.76, and on July 21, 2025, it was 68.09, with a decline of 0.97% [3]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning): On July 18, 2025, it was 6050.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 6060.0, with an increase of 0.17% [3]. - Sugar (Kunming): On July 18, 2025, it was 5920.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 5920.0, with no change [3]. - Cotton Index 328: On July 18, 2025, it was 3281, and on July 21, 2025, it was 3280, with a decline of 0.52% [3]. - Cotton (Xinjiang): On July 18, 2025, it was 15300.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 15400.0, with an increase of 0.65% [3]. 3.1.3 Spread Overview - SR01 - 05: On July 20, 2025, it was 59.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 54.0, with a decline of 8.47% [3]. - SR05 - 09: On July 20, 2025, it was - 229.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was - 223.0, with a decline of 2.62% [3]. - SR09 - 01: On July 20, 2025, it was 170.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 169.0, with a decline of 0.59% [3]. - CF01 - 05: On July 20, 2025, it was 50.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 45.0, with a decline of 10.00% [3]. - CF05 - 09: On July 20, 2025, it was - 355.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was - 240.0, with a decline of 32.39% [3]. - CF09 - 01: On July 20, 2025, it was 305.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 195.0, with a decline of 36.07% [3]. - Sugar 01 basis: On July 20, 2025, it was 264.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 250.0, with a decline of 5.30% [3]. - Sugar 05 basis: On July 20, 2025, it was 323.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 304.0, with a decline of 5.88% [3]. - Sugar 09 basis: On July 20, 2025, it was 94.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 81.0, with a decline of 13.83% [3]. - Cotton 01 basis: On July 20, 2025, it was 1543.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 1599.0, with an increase of 3.63% [3]. - Cotton 05 basis: On July 20, 2025, it was 1593.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 1644.0, with an increase of 3.20% [3]. - Cotton 09 basis: On July 20, 2025, it was 1238.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 1404.0, with an increase of 13.41% [3]. 3.1.4 Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA: On July 18, 2025, it was 79.5, and on July 21, 2025, it was 79.5, with no change [3]. 3.1.5 Profit Margins - Sugar import profit: On July 18, 2025, it was 1506.5, and on July 21, 2025, it was 1506.5, with no change [3]. 3.1.6 Options - SR509C5800: Implied volatility is 0.0791, and the futures underlying is SR509 with a historical volatility of 7.02 [3]. - SR509P5800: Implied volatility is 0.0806 [3]. - CF509C14200: Implied volatility is 0.1252, and the futures underlying is CF509 with a historical volatility of 9.03 [3]. - CF509P14200: Implied volatility is 0.1226 [3]. 3.1.7 Warehouse Receipts (sheets) - Sugar: On July 18, 2025, it was 21477.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 21437.0, with a decline of 0.19% [3]. - Cotton: On July 18, 2025, it was 9532.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 9501.0, with a decline of 0.33% [3]. 3. Company Information - The company is CINDA Futures Co., Ltd., a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business, wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has various memberships and observer statuses in multiple exchanges and associations [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillating [1] - Cotton: Oscillating [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar is affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, with unfavorable emergence and early - stage growth of sugarcane in Guangxi, while beet grows well overall but there are potential pest problems in Inner Mongolia. International factors include the need to monitor Brazil's sugar production progress and Northern Hemisphere sugar crop growth [1]. - Most cotton - growing areas in China have entered the budding - to - flowering stage, with growth 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. High - temperature risks in Xinjiang in July and the cautious raw - material procurement of textile enterprises due to the off - season market require continuous attention to weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Data Overview 3.1.1 Outer - Market Quotes - US sugar price remained at $16.79 from July 19th to 20th, with a 0.00% change [3]. - US cotton price remained at $68.76 from July 19th to 20th, with a 0.00% change [3]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices - Nanning sugar price remained at 6050.0 from July 17th to 18th, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Kunming sugar price remained at 5905.0 from July 17th to 18th, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Cotton Index 328 increased from 3280 to 3281 from July 17th to 18th, with a 1.00% change [3]. - Xinjiang cotton price increased from 15200.0 to 15300.0 from July 17th to 18th, with a 0.66% change [3]. 3.1.3 Spread Overview - All sugar and cotton spreads (SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, etc.) remained unchanged from July 19th to 20th, with a 0.00% change [3]. 3.1.4 Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA increased from 79.3 to 79.5 from July 17th to 18th, with a 0.25% change [3]. 3.1.5 Profit Margins - Sugar import profit remained at 1579.0 from July 17th to 18th, with a 0.00% change [3]. 3.1.6 Options - SR509C5800 has an implied volatility of 0.0745 and a historical volatility of 7.05 for the underlying SR509 [3]. - SR509P5800 has an implied volatility of 0.0746 [3]. - CF509C14200 has an implied volatility of 0.1198 and a historical volatility of 9.16 for the underlying CF509 [3]. - CF509P14200 has an implied volatility of 0.1251 [3]. 3.1.7 Warehouse Receipts - Sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 21857.0 to 21477.0 from July 17th to 18th, with a - 1.74% change [3]. - Cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 9585.0 to 9532.0 from July 17th to 18th, with a - 0.55% change [3]. 3.2 Company Information - CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business, wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It holds various memberships in multiple exchanges and associations [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - For sugar, affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, which may lead to pests and diseases. Internationally, the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere need to be continuously monitored [1] - For cotton, most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days earlier than in previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will remain high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties needs to be continuously monitored [1] Data Summary Price and Spread - From July 16 to July 17, 2025, the price of US sugar increased by 1.21% from 16.55 to 16.75 US dollars, and the price of US cotton increased by 0.41% from 68.56 to 68.84 US dollars. The spot price of sugar in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged, while the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.54% from 3281 to 3280, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 0.65% from 15300 to 15200 [3] - The spreads SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, SR09 - 01, CF01 - 05, CF05 - 09, and CF09 - 01 all showed varying degrees of increase, with CF05 - 09 and CF09 - 01 having relatively large increases of 109.68% and 132.00% respectively. The basis of sugar and cotton contracts generally decreased [3] Import Price and Profit - The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 79.3 from July 16 to July 17, 2025, and the sugar import profit also remained unchanged at 1579 [3] Option and Warehouse Receipt - The implied volatility of SR509C5800 is 0.0713, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR509 is 7.31. The implied volatility of SR509P5800 is 0.0737. The implied volatility of CF509C14200 is 0.1274, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF509 is 9.16. The implied volatility of CF509P14200 is 0.1287 [3] - From July 16 to July 17, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1.94% from 22289 to 21857, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.60% from 9643 to 9585 [3] Company Introduction - Cinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited liability company specialized in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is one of the large - scale, standardized, and high - reputation futures companies in China [9] - The company is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, making it prone to pests and diseases, which require early prevention. Internationally, it is necessary to continue to monitor the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will also exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. Data Summary Price Data - **Foreign Market Quotes**: On July 15 - 16, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 0.06% from 16.56 to 16.55 dollars, and the price of US cotton decreased by 0.01% from 68.57 to 68.56 dollars [3]. - **Spot Prices**: From July 15 to 16, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning decreased by 0.17% from 6060.0 to 6050.0, the price of sugar in Kunming remained unchanged at 5905.0, the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.20% from 3281 to 3280, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged at 15300.0 [3]. - **Price Spreads**: From July 15 to 16, 2025, SR01 - 05 increased by 10.00% from 50.0 to 55.0, SR05 - 09 increased by 4.61% from - 217.0 to - 227.0, SR09 - 01 increased by 2.99% from 167.0 to 172.0, CF01 - 05 decreased by 14.29% from 35.0 to 30.0, CF05 - 09 increased by 138.46% from - 65.0 to - 155.0, and CF09 - 01 increased by 316.67% from 30.0 to 125.0 [3]. - **Basis**: From July 15 to 16, 2025, the basis of sugar 01 decreased by 0.37% from 270.0 to 269.0, the basis of sugar 05 increased by 1.25% from 320.0 to 324.0, the basis of sugar 09 decreased by 5.83% from 103.0 to 97.0, the basis of cotton 01 decreased by 5.06% from 1482.0 to 1407.0, the basis of cotton 05 decreased by 5.27% from 1517.0 to 1437.0, and the basis of cotton 09 decreased by 11.71% from 1452.0 to 1282.0 [3]. - **Import Prices**: The price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 78.75 from July 15 to 16, 2025 [3]. - **Profit Margins**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1590.0 from July 15 to 16, 2025 [3]. Option Data - The implied volatility of SR509C5800 is 0.0744, with the futures underlying SR509 and a historical volatility of 7.29; the implied volatility of SR509P5800 is 0.0751; the implied volatility of CF509C14000 is 0.1206, with the futures underlying CF509 and a historical volatility of 8.48; the implied volatility of CF509P14000 is 0.1118 [3]. Warehouse Receipt Data - From July 15 to 16, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1.38% from 22602.0 to 22289.0, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.75% from 9716.0 to 9643.0 [3] Company Information - The report is produced by Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., a large - scale and reputable futures company in China. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, and a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for coke is bullish, and for coking coal is also bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rumor of crude steel production restrictions has boosted the sentiment of the sector, and coal and coke are oscillating. The market tends to trade policy expectations due to the combination of economic pressure and policy relaxation expectations. The social financing data in June exceeded expectations, and the short - term bullish sentiment remains strong. However, the possible implementation of steel production control may suppress the price increase of coal and coke spot, but it may also drive the overall repair of industrial chain profits. Currently, coking coal faces resistance after basis repair and may have short - term correction pressure [1][4][5] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Related Information - In June, the new social financing was 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 900.8 billion yuan year - on - year. The growth rate of social financing stock was 8.9%, up 0.2% from the previous month, with significant increases in government and corporate financing [1] 3.2 Coking Coal - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of coking coal increased, while the futures price oscillated downward. The price of Mongolian 5 prime coking coal was 950 yuan/ton, the active contract was 897 yuan/ton (-14.5), the basis was 73 yuan/ton (+14.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was -46.5 yuan/ton (+4) [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Mine production resumed, but the intensity was lower than expected. The demand contracted. The operating rate of 523 mines was 85.52% (+1.7), and that of 110 coal washing plants was 62.32% (+2.6). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.72% (-0.48) [2] - **Inventory**: Upstream inventory decreased, and downstream inventory increased. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines was 377.18 million tons (-32.43), that of coal washing plants was 197.07 million tons (-17.91), that of 247 steel mills was 782.93 million tons (-6.76), that of 230 coking enterprises was 752.44 million tons (+36), and the port inventory was 321.64 million tons (+12.37) [2] 3.3 Coke - **Spot and Futures**: There is an expectation of spot price increase, and the futures price oscillated downward. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was 1220 yuan/ton, and some steel mills in Tianjin accepted the first - round spot price increase of 50 yuan/ton. The active contract was 1494.5 yuan/ton (-19.5), the basis was -183 yuan/ton (+19.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was -44 yuan/ton (+2.5) [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Both supply and demand declined, but there was still a gap. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.72% (-0.48), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 89.9% (-0.39), and the daily average pig iron output was 239.81 million tons (-1.04) [3] - **Inventory**: Upstream inventory decreased, and downstream inventory increased. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 59.58 million tons (-2.02), that of 247 steel mills was 637.8 million tons (+0.31), and the port inventory was 200.08 million tons (+8.96) [3] 3.4 Strategy Suggestions - Trump extended the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs to July 31. The market's attitude towards tariffs is mainly risk - prevention without further pricing. Domestically, the anti - involution campaign continues to develop, and the social financing data in June exceeded expectations. For coking coal, mine production resumed but was less than expected, and the spot trading volume reached a new high this year. For coke, some steel mills accepted a 50 - yuan/ton spot price increase. The blast furnace profit remained at around 180 yuan. The rumor of crude steel production restrictions increased, and the pig iron output declined, but the supply and demand of coke remained tight. It is recommended to hold long positions in J09 and hold long positions in JM09 while reducing positions at high prices in a timely manner [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for both coke and coking coal [1] Core Viewpoints - The base spread repair is nearing its end, and coal and coke are oscillating [1] - The market tends to trade on policy expectations due to the combination of economic pressure and policy relaxation expectations. The short - term bullish sentiment remains strong [5] - For coking coal, although mine production is increasing, downstream restocking enthusiasm persists. For coke, the supply - demand gap remains despite a decline in both supply and demand, and industry chain profits are expected to transfer from steel to furnace materials [5] - It is recommended to hold long positions in J09 and hold long positions in JM09 while reducing positions at high prices in a timely manner [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - **Spot and Futures**: Spot prices are rising, while futures are oscillating. The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 950 yuan/ton (+23), and the active contract is 911.5 yuan/ton (-8.5). The base spread is 58.5 yuan/ton (+31.5), and the September - January spread is - 50.5 yuan/ton (-7) [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Mine production is resuming, while demand is contracting. The operating rate of 523 mines is 85.52% (+1.7), and that of 110 coal - washing plants is 62.32% (+2.6). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 72.72% (-0.48) [2] - **Inventory**: Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The refined coal inventory of 523 mines is 377.18 million tons (-32.43), and that of coal - washing plants is 197.07 million tons (-17.91). The inventory of 247 steel mills is 782.93 million tons (-6.76), that of 230 coking enterprises is 752.44 (+36), and port inventory is 321.64 million tons (+12.37) [2] Coke - **Spot and Futures**: Spot price increases have partially taken effect, and futures are rising. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1220 yuan/ton (-0), and some steel mills in Tianjin have accepted the first - round spot price increase of 50 yuan/ton. The active contract is 1514 yuan/ton (-11). The base spread is - 202 yuan/ton (+11), and the September - January spread is - 46.5 yuan/ton (-2.5) [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Both supply and demand have declined, but the gap remains. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 72.72% (-0.48). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 89.9% (-0.39), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.3981 million tons (-1.04) [3] - **Inventory**: Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 59.58 million tons (-2.02), that of 247 steel mills is 637.8 million tons (+0.31), and port inventory is 200.08 million tons (+8.96) [3] Strategy and Market Environment - **Tariff and Policy**: Trump extended the reciprocal tariff suspension period to July 31. China's reciprocal tariffs will start on August 12. The market is mainly focused on risk prevention regarding tariffs [4] - **Social Financing**: In June, the new social financing was 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 900.8 billion yuan year - on - year. The growth rate of social financing stock was 8.9%, up 0.2% from the previous month [1] - **Anti - Involution**: The anti - involution campaign is ongoing, and this round of capacity reduction may be more moderate and longer - term [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar is affected by consecutive droughts from autumn to spring in Guangxi, leading to unfavorable emergence and early growth of sugarcane, with shorter and fewer sugarcane plants compared to the same period last year. Beet growth is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia sugar beet production area recently, making it prone to pests and diseases. Internationally, it is necessary to continue monitoring the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Most cotton - growing areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. In July, Xinjiang is expected to have persistently high temperatures and more high - temperature days than usual, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. It is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Overview 3.1.1 Outer - Market Quotes - The price of US sugar increased from $16.31 on July 14, 2025, to $16.56 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 1.53% [3]. - The price of US cotton rose from $68.11 on July 14, 2025, to $68.57 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.68% [3]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices - The spot price of sugar in Nanning remained at 6060.0 from July 14 to July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.00% [3]. - The spot price of sugar in Kunming stayed at 5905.0 from July 14 to July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.00% [3]. - The cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 on July 14, 2025, to 3280 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of 0.05% [3]. - The spot price of cotton in Xinjiang increased from 15250.0 on July 14, 2025, to 15300.0 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.33% [3]. 3.1.3 Spread Overview - The SR01 - 05 spread decreased from 57.0 on July 14, 2025, to 50.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of 12.28% [3]. - The SR05 - 09 spread increased from - 235.0 on July 14, 2025, to - 217.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of - 7.66% [3]. - The SR09 - 01 spread decreased from 178.0 on July 14, 2025, to 167.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of 6.18% [3]. - The CF01 - 05 spread increased from 25.0 on July 14, 2025, to 35.0 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 40.00% [3]. - The CF05 - 09 spread increased from - 85.0 on July 14, 2025, to - 65.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of - 23.53% [3]. - The CF09 - 01 spread decreased from 60.0 on July 14, 2025, to 30.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of 50.00% [3]. - The sugar 01 basis increased from 266.0 on July 14, 2025, to 270.0 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 1.50% [3]. - The sugar 05 basis decreased from 323.0 on July 14, 2025, to 320.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of - 0.93% [3]. - The sugar 09 basis increased from 88.0 on July 14, 2025, to 103.0 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 17.05% [3]. - The cotton 01 basis increased from 1480.0 on July 14, 2025, to 1482.0 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.14% [3]. - The cotton 05 basis increased from 1505.0 on July 14, 2025, to 1517.0 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.80% [3]. - The cotton 09 basis increased from 1420.0 on July 14, 2025, to 1452.0 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 2.25% [3]. 3.1.4 Import Prices - The import price of cotton cotlookA remained at 78.05 from July 14 to July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.00% [3]. 3.1.5 Profit Margins - The sugar import profit remained at 1656.5 from July 14 to July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.00% [3]. 3.1.6 Options - The implied volatility of SR509C5800 is 0.075, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR509 is 7.53 [3]. - The implied volatility of SR509P5800 is 0.0743 [3]. - The implied volatility of CF509C13800 is 0.0932, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF509 is 8.31 [3]. - The implied volatility of CF509P13800 is 0.0994 [3]. 3.1.7 Warehouse Receipts - The number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 22716.0 on July 14, 2025, to 22602.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of 0.50% [3]. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 9807.0 on July 14, 2025, to 9716.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of 0.93% [3]. 3.2 Company Information - Report research is carried out by CINDA Futures Co., Ltd, a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd, with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is one of the large - scale, standardized, and high - reputation futures companies in China [9]. - The company is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [9]