Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the redevelopment of old buildings in Hong Kong, highlighting significant opportunities for developers in this sector [1]. Core Insights - The aging building issue in Hong Kong is severe, with over 10,000 buildings aged over 50 years, necessitating urgent urban renewal efforts [1]. - The Urban Renewal Authority has successfully assisted in the redevelopment of 1,300 buildings over the past 18 years, which is still a small fraction compared to the current stock of old buildings [1]. - The "Yau Ma Tei and Mong Kok" area, covering 212 hectares and involving 3,345 buildings, has over 80% of its buildings aged 30 years or more, indicating a substantial redevelopment opportunity [1]. - The report emphasizes that while redevelopment may not significantly increase land supply, it can improve living conditions in old communities [1]. Summary by Sections Challenges in Old Building Redevelopment - The threshold for applying for compulsory sale has been lowered to 80% ownership for buildings aged over 30 years, encouraging developers to acquire old buildings [6]. - Developers can potentially acquire properties at a lower cost compared to purchasing land directly, presenting a profitable opportunity [6]. Comprehensive Thinking in Urban Renewal - By 2046, it is estimated that there will be 326,000 private residential units aged 70 years or more in Hong Kong, with a significant concentration in the Yau Ma Tei and Mong Kok areas [8]. - The remaining plot ratio in these areas is only 10%, limiting development potential unless height restrictions are relaxed [11]. Involvement of Chinese Developers - Since the amendment of the compulsory sale ordinance in 2010, there has been an increase in private market participation, with major Chinese developers like Vanke and Country Garden actively acquiring old buildings [13]. - The scarcity of land in urban areas has led developers to focus on acquiring old buildings as a means to increase land reserves [13]. Old Building Acquisition Trends - In 2018, there were 39 cases of compulsory sale applications, a 1.6 times increase from 2017, indicating a growing trend in old building redevelopment [15]. - The report notes that smaller developers are finding opportunities in acquiring old buildings, especially as larger land parcels become less accessible [15]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued interest from mainland property groups in acquiring old buildings due to lower investment costs compared to government land tenders [22]. - The demand for professional services related to valuation and expert reports for compulsory sales is expected to remain strong as developers seek to navigate the complexities of the process [22].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Beijing retail market is experiencing significant changes with the opening of new shopping centers, contributing to a total retail space of 1.545 million square meters as of Q3 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.8% in stock [2][3] - The average rent for prime retail properties in core business districts is ¥2,180 per square meter per month, reflecting ongoing demand despite economic pressures [2][10] - The report highlights a trend of upgrading older commercial projects in response to the increasing competition from new shopping centers and changing consumer preferences towards experiential retail [3][5] Market Overview - In Q3 2024, Beijing's retail market welcomed the opening of three major shopping centers, adding 236,000 square meters of quality retail space [3] - The total retail space in Beijing is projected to exceed 1.2 million square meters for the year, the highest in nearly a decade, driven by the development of international consumption centers [5] - The report notes a decline in retail sales in Beijing, with a 0.8% year-on-year decrease in total retail sales from January to July 2024, particularly in the dining sector, which saw a 4.2% drop [4] Rental and Vacancy Rates - The average rent in the retail market has shown fluctuations, with a current average of ¥2,180 per square meter per month, while the overall vacancy rate stands at 10.8% [2][10] - Specific business districts exhibit varying vacancy rates, with the Central Business District at 5.32% and Sanlitun at 2.95% [10] New Supply and Future Projects - A total of eight retail projects have entered the market in 2024, contributing 756,000 square meters of retail space, with more projects expected to open in Q4 [5] - Future supply is projected to reach 2.73 million square meters by 2027, indicating robust growth in the retail sector [10]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a downward trend in rental prices for office spaces in Beijing, suggesting a cautious investment outlook for the sector [3][7]. Core Insights - The rental prices for office spaces in Beijing have decreased by 4.7% quarter-on-quarter and 13.5% year-on-year, reaching RMB 266.1 per square meter per month [3]. - The overall vacancy rate in Beijing's office market has increased to 18.2%, with a slight rise of 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter [3]. - The demand for office spaces is shifting, with traditional industries such as finance, TMT, and professional services dominating the leasing market, accounting for 35.7%, 24.2%, and 20.0% of total leasing area respectively [6]. - New projects entering the market are expected to further increase the overall vacancy rate, leading to continued downward pressure on rental prices in the fourth quarter [7]. Summary by Sections Market Key Indicators - As of the second quarter of 2024, Beijing's GDP growth rate is projected at 5.8%, with a CPI growth rate of -1.7% and a real estate development investment growth rate of 0.1% [2]. Office Market Performance - In the third quarter of 2024, the net absorption of office space in Beijing was 24,000 square meters, with core business districts seeing a net absorption of 31,000 square meters [3]. - The report highlights that landlords are adopting more attractive leasing strategies, including lower rents and extended rent-free periods to attract tenants [3]. Future Supply and Demand - By 2027, the projected new supply of office space in Beijing is estimated at 1.678 million square meters, with a supply-demand ratio of only 12% [7]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in demand for office spaces as economic conditions improve and new supply remains limited [7]. Major Leasing Transactions - Key leasing transactions in the third quarter include companies like 超威半导体 and 深圳市小赢信息技术, indicating active leasing activity in the market [12]. Upcoming Projects - Notable upcoming projects include the 国家会议中心二期南北塔 and 鼎好DH3二期, expected to be delivered in the fourth quarter of 2024 [13].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The overall demand in the Qingdao Grade A office market remains weak due to economic uncertainties and cost control measures by enterprises, leading to a net absorption of only 3,568 square meters, a 55% decrease quarter-on-quarter [38]. - The average rent for office space has decreased by 1.8% to RMB 101.2 per square meter per month, reflecting a downward trend in rental expectations [38]. - The report anticipates a significant supply of approximately 174,000 square meters of quality office space in 2025, with a total of about 360,000 square meters expected over the next three years [38]. - The retail market in Qingdao has seen a total stock increase to 4,109,300 square meters, with a slight decrease in vacancy rates to 8.5% due to new project openings [62]. - The average rental price in the retail market remains stable at RMB 436 per square meter per month, with a focus on attracting new brands and enhancing consumer experience [62]. Summary by Sections Economic Overview - Qingdao's GDP is reported at 1,239.9 billion RMB, with a third industry growth rate of 4.5% [4][11]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 453.2 billion RMB, indicating a robust consumer market [6]. Office Market Overview - The total stock of Grade A office space in Qingdao is 1,793,528 square meters, with an overall vacancy rate of 24.3% [26]. - The average rent varies by district, with the highest in Laoshan CBD at RMB 111.23 per square meter per month [26]. Future Supply in Office Market - Upcoming projects from 2025 to 2027 are expected to add significant office space, intensifying market competition [28]. Retail Market Overview - The retail market's total stock is 4,109,300 square meters, with a vacancy rate of 8.5% [44]. - The report highlights the importance of experiential retail and the introduction of new brands to attract consumers [62]. Future Supply in Retail Market - Over 700,000 square meters of retail space is projected to enter the market from 2025 to 2027, indicating ongoing development in the sector [62].

Group 1 - The report highlights that many Chinese enterprises have entered the ranks of world-class companies and are actively pursuing a "going out" strategy to expand into global markets [4][5][17] - The report categorizes Chinese enterprises into three types: state-owned enterprises, private enterprises, and unicorn companies, all of which are increasingly participating in overseas investments [9][17][19] - In 2016, the number of overseas mergers and acquisitions led by Chinese enterprises increased by 28.1% to 515 cases, with the total transaction value surging by 121.9% to $249.7 billion [13][42] Group 2 - The five most favored industries for Chinese enterprises' overseas investments in 2016 were chemicals and materials, energy, financial services, computer software, and e-commerce [13][46] - The report identifies seven key markets for Chinese enterprises' overseas investments in 2016, including the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, Singapore, India, and Australia [50][56] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is emphasized as a significant geopolitical factor influencing Chinese enterprises' overseas investments, aiming to enhance cooperation and infrastructure development across Eurasia [60][65] Group 3 - The report notes that private enterprises accounted for 65.3% of China's total overseas investment by the end of 2015, surpassing state-owned enterprises [19][22] - The report discusses the challenges faced by private enterprises in overseas financing and the lack of mature overseas investment strategies [22] - The report indicates that the "Belt and Road" initiative is expected to provide a substantial opportunity for Chinese enterprises to expand their global business [65]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The development of urban agglomerations is crucial for China's economic growth and regional integration, with 19 urban agglomerations identified as key growth areas [13][40] - Urban agglomerations are seen as a response to the challenges of rapid urbanization, including the alleviation of "big city diseases" through the development of metropolitan areas [50][62] - The report emphasizes the importance of coordinated development among large, medium, and small cities to enhance overall urbanization quality [33][64] Summary by Sections 1. International Experience and Chinese Practice - World-class urban agglomerations play a central role in national and regional development, with examples including New York, Tokyo, and London [20][24] - China's urbanization policies have evolved from promoting small towns to focusing on urban agglomerations as the main form of urbanization [28][40] 2. Development Logic of Metropolitan Areas under Urban Agglomeration Strategy - Rapid urbanization has led to negative effects, necessitating the development of metropolitan areas to alleviate urban issues [50][62] - The relationship between metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations is defined, highlighting the need for coordinated development [54][61] 3. Urban Renewal and Livability - Urban renewal efforts aim to enhance livability by relieving some functions of central cities [10][62] - Balancing livability and economic efficiency is a key focus in urban renewal discussions [10] 4. Construction of Multi-level Transportation Systems in Urban Agglomerations - The impact of rail transit and Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) on urban agglomeration development is discussed [6] - Japan's experience in rail transit construction is highlighted as a reference for China [6] 5. Urban-Rural Integration and Industry-City Integration Development - The report outlines the historical development and pathways for urban-rural integration [8] - Characteristics and types of industry-city integration are explored [8] 6. Current Status and Trends of Typical Urban Agglomerations in China - The report focuses on the development planning and strategic positioning of five major urban agglomerations [12] - It provides an analysis of the development trends of urban agglomerations in China [12][40] 7. Planning and Goals for Urban Agglomeration Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines the goal of forming a "two horizontal and three vertical" urbanization pattern, emphasizing the importance of urban agglomerations [41][44] - The report notes that urban agglomerations account for over 75% of China's urban population and contribute over 80% of the national GDP [40][41]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed outlook for the Greater China region, with core areas in first-tier cities being more attractive for investment, while second-tier cities face challenges due to increased supply and vacancy rates [61][72]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the economic recovery is underway globally, with the U.S. and China leading growth, but the impact of rising interest rates and potential inflation remains a concern for real estate investors [4][10]. - The rental costs in the Greater China region are expected to see moderate growth, particularly in mature markets, while second-tier cities may experience increased vacancy rates and more options for tenants [4][62]. - The report emphasizes the importance of market liquidity for investors, especially as relative value may decline with rising interest rates, urging investors to act decisively [36][37]. Summary by Sections Global Outlook - Economic growth is projected to improve, with GDP growth rates expected to rise significantly over the next five years [8]. - The report notes that the downtrend in economic expectations has dissipated, with most clients no longer concerned about the potential disintegration of the Eurozone [9]. - The anticipated increase in bond yields and interest rates is expected to impact the real estate market significantly [10]. Regional Outlook - The report states that the average vacancy rate in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to rise, providing tenants with more choices [18]. - Despite increasing vacancy rates, rental growth in the Asia-Pacific region is projected to be the highest globally due to inflationary pressures [19]. - The report suggests that many markets in the Asia-Pacific region have limited room for improving space efficiency, making it challenging for tenants to offset rising costs [20]. Greater China Tenant Outlook - In second-tier cities, the rental costs for prime office spaces are only 46% of the Greater China average, with significant new supply and rising vacancy rates suppressing rental growth [61]. - The report anticipates a slight improvement in rental growth in 2014, particularly in mature markets where new supply is limited [62]. - Over 60% of new supply is expected to come from non-core areas, which will have a limited direct impact on prime rental rates [63]. Greater China Investor Outlook - The FVI index score for Greater China indicates that first-tier cities are the most attractive markets, with scores reflecting stable growth predictions [71]. - Retail properties are highlighted as the most attractive asset type in the region, while industrial properties in mainland China are expected to maintain optimistic sentiment [72]. - The report warns that rising bond yields and interest rates will likely limit investment growth in the short term, particularly in Hong Kong and Taipei [73].

目录 | 简介 | 1 | | --- | --- | | 武汉物流市场的发展现状 | 2 | | 市场新变化 | 7 | | 未来市场的预测研判 | 8 | 作者 China Insight 腾飞中的武汉物流地产 高增长蕴酿的机遇和前景 2013 年 11 月 12 日 李孔瑞 华中区研究部主管 +86 20 8510 8209 christal.kr.li@dtz.com 白薇 DTZ 戴德梁行研究部 +86 27 8555 8239 vivian.w.bai@dtz.com 邝伟烘 DTZ 戴德梁行研究部 +86 20 8510 8216 nikko.wh.kuang@dtz.com 联系方式 Andrew Ness 北亚区研究部主管 +852 2507 0779 andrew.ness@dtz.com Hans Vrensen 全球研究部主管 +44 (0) 20 3296 2159 hans.vrensen@dtz.com DTZ Research Hh 近年来刺激内需已替代出口和固定资产投资而成为中国国民经济发展 的主要推动力，直接催生了物流行业的高速发展。数据显示，从 2006 年至 2012年 ...

DTZ China Insight 中国投资市场信心调查 投资活动放缓 2014 年 1 月 24 日 目录 | 投资额 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 资金来源 | 5 | | 价格、租金和回报率 | 5 | | 展望 | 6 | 作者 聂安达 北亚区研究部主管 +852 2507 0779 andrew.ness@dtz.com 冯国健 亚太区预测部主管 +852 2250 8864 dennis.kk.fung@dtz.com DTZ Research 信心调查发现，受访者认为未来一年中国的投资市场将平稳发展。然而， 调查也显示出大多数受访者预计市场整合将会发生。 其中一个主要的调查结果是开发商和投资者就一系列的问题对中国房地 产业务的影响持有不同的意见（图 1 ）。开发商明确地指出中国房地产 热潮还沒有完全消退，投资者则普遍较为保守及非常关注房地产市场的 下行风险。 开发商对前景最为乐观而投资者则较为谨慎。此分歧将进一步限制商业 投资活动的发展，这有可能导致市场缺乏方向或令市场在未来一段时间 内相对平稳。 尽管开发商对前景普遍较为乐观，市场开始忧虑政策将会阻碍贷款人和 开发商的商业活动。因 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the Yangtze River Middle Reaches Urban Agglomeration is one of the most promising growth areas in China, with a focus on high-quality development and strategic positioning within the national economic framework [3][11][13]. Core Insights - The Yangtze River Economic Belt is a key national strategy for regional coordinated development, with the Yangtze River Middle Reaches Urban Agglomeration serving as a natural "bridge" for integration between eastern, central, and western China [3][9]. - Wuhan is positioned as the core city of the Yangtze River Middle Reaches Urban Agglomeration, playing a crucial role in driving regional development and enhancing its economic influence [3][17]. - The report highlights the rapid growth of high-tech industries and modern services in Wuhan, indicating a shift towards a more diversified economic structure [18][21][24]. Summary by Sections Economic and Geographical Significance - The Yangtze River Middle Reaches Urban Agglomeration acts as a bridge connecting major urban clusters, facilitating regional integration and development [9][11]. - In 2020, the GDP of the Yangtze River Middle Reaches Urban Agglomeration reached 9.3 trillion yuan, ranking third among China's major urban clusters [13][14]. Population Dynamics - Wuhan's population has been increasing rapidly, with a net inflow of residents contributing to a 26% growth from 2010 to 2020, indicating significant future growth potential [31][34]. - The city is projected to have an additional 10 million people over the next 20 years, supported by ongoing urbanization in the surrounding provinces [34][36]. Transportation Infrastructure - Wuhan is a central transportation hub with a 3-hour flight radius covering 80% of major cities in China, enhancing its logistical capabilities [37][41]. - The city has a comprehensive public transport system, including a planned expansion of its metro network to 600 kilometers by 2025 [39][40]. Educational Resources and Innovation - Wuhan is home to a rich array of educational institutions, ranking third in the number of higher education establishments in China, which supports a strong talent pool for innovation [53][54]. - The city has implemented policies to retain graduates, resulting in a significant increase in the number of students choosing to stay in Wuhan for employment [58][59]. Industrial Development - The report outlines Wuhan's focus on upgrading traditional manufacturing and fostering strategic emerging industries, aiming for a GDP of 2 trillion yuan by 2024 [29][27]. - The "965" modern industrial system is being developed, emphasizing strategic emerging industries, advanced manufacturing, and modern services [24][65].