行 业 及 产 业 公用事业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 傅浩玮 A0230522010001 fuhw@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 (8621)23297818× zhuhe@swsresearch.com 2025 年 04 月 28 日 新能源装机首超煤电 欧美气价降至 近期新低 看好 ——申万公用环保周报(25/04/21~25/04/25) 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 - ⚫ 电力：新能源装机历史性超越火电，清洁能源占比稳步提升。1-3 月我国新增发电装机容量达 8572 万千瓦，其中水电、火电、核电、风电、光伏装机新增容量分别为 213、925、0、1462、 5971 万千瓦，新能源新增装机贡献率达 86.7%。截至 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index (HSSCHKY) has shown positive performance, with significant increases in constituent stocks, indicating a potential recovery in the Hong Kong real estate market and overall economic stability [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of April 25, 2025, the HSSCHKY index rose by 0.85%, with notable increases in stocks such as China Resources Land (4.64%) and China Overseas Development (3.76%) [2]. - The Bosera Hang Seng High Dividend ETF (513690) increased by 1.20%, with a latest price of 0.93 yuan and a trading volume of 16.6197 million yuan [2]. - Over the past year, the Bosera Hang Seng High Dividend ETF has seen an average daily trading volume of 78.9566 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Economic Measures - A recent State Council meeting focused on stabilizing employment and the economy, emphasizing the need to maintain a stable stock market and promote healthy development in the real estate sector [2]. - Despite a slight decline in new home sales and falling second-hand home prices, historical trends suggest that the real estate sector often rebounds before the fundamentals stabilize, supported by strong expectations for new policies [2]. Group 3: ETF Performance Metrics - The Bosera Hang Seng High Dividend ETF has a current size of 3.731 billion yuan, with net inflows remaining balanced recently [3]. - The ETF's net value increased by 22.27% over the past year, with a maximum monthly return of 24.18% since inception [3]. - The ETF's Sharpe ratio for the past year is 1.48, indicating a favorable risk-adjusted return [3]. Group 4: Index Composition - As of April 24, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the HSSCHKY index account for 28.32% of the index, with Yanzhou Coal Mining (4.39%) and Hang Lung Properties (3.38%) being the most significant [4][6].

随着4月的到来,中国燃气控股有限公司(简称"中国燃气")为期120余天的冬季保供攻坚战正式收官。在又 一个寒潮频发的冬季大考中,中国燃气统筹全国八大区域资源,以"政企协同稳供应、科技赋能强保障、民 生服务筑底线、应急攻坚破难题、精神传承守初心"五大维度构建保供体系,累计向近6000万户家庭供应 天然气超120亿立方米,实现"零安全责任事故、零投诉、零舆情、零断供"的"四零"目标,用扎实行动诠释 了能源保供先锋的责任担当。 而面对近年来国际气价持续高位震荡、国内部分地区气价严重倒挂的严峻挑战,中国燃气经过深入沟通, 与全国多个省份各级政府建立"政府+企业"常态化保供协作机制,签订超150份长效保供协议,其中华北区 域保供协议签订率已超99%,有效缓解了燃气企业购销倒挂压力,助力冬季保供圆满收官。 国家发改委多次点赞保供协议"河北模式",要求全国各地政府学习河北等地的先进做法,通过保供协议增 强燃气企业的保供能力和保供信心。4月2日,央视《正点财经》栏目播出关于天然气供需的相关报道,内 容聚焦中国燃气与济南章丘当地政府签订的保供协议,点赞政企携手保民生的责任担当。 在西北区域,乌兰察布中燃、乌蒙中燃等项目公司通过 ...

联合研究丨港股公司深度丨中国燃气（0384.HK） [Table_Title] 中国燃气：高股息燃气龙头，顺价带动毛差回升 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Summary] 中国燃气是中国最大的城燃公司之一，从此前的跑马圈地式高速发展逐渐过渡到目前的稳健经 营阶段，近两年分红金额维持在 27.2 亿港元，股息率约 7%。受益于居民燃气顺价和上游采购 成本下降带来毛差修复；燃气接驳工程业绩占比已到低位，我们预计自 2024/25 财年开始将扭 转此前业绩大幅下滑的趋势，EPS 重新恢复增长。PB 和 PE 估值仍处低位，看好公司价值重 估机会。 报告要点 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520070003 SFC：BUV415 SFC：BQT627 宋尚骞 SAC：S0490520110001 徐科 张韦华 贾少波 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 30 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 中国燃气 2023 ...

联合研究丨港股公司深度丨中国燃气（0384.HK） [Table_Title] 中国燃气：高股息燃气龙头，顺价带动毛差回升 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 中国燃气是中国最大的城燃公司之一，从此前的跑马圈地式高速发展逐渐过渡到目前的稳健经 营阶段，近两年分红金额维持在 27.2 亿港元，股息率约 7%。受益于居民燃气顺价和上游采购 成本下降带来毛差修复；燃气接驳工程业绩占比已到低位，我们预计自 2024/25 财年开始将扭 转此前业绩大幅下滑的趋势，EPS 重新恢复增长。PB 和 PE 估值仍处低位，看好公司价值重 估机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 徐科 张韦华 贾少波 SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520070003 SFC：BUV415 SFC：BQT627 宋尚骞 SAC：S0490520110001 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 30 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 中国燃气（038 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 2.6% year-on-year to HKD 35.11 billion in the first half of the 2024/25 fiscal year, while gross profit increased by 2.3% to HKD 5.86 billion. The attributable profit decreased by 3.8% to HKD 1.76 billion [3][6] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of HKD 0.15 per share, unchanged from the previous year, resulting in a dividend yield of 7.8% based on the closing price on December 6, 2024 [4][10] - Natural gas retail volume grew by 1.4% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase to HKD 0.59 per cubic meter. The full-year gross margin guidance remains at HKD 0.53 per cubic meter, while the retail gas growth forecast has been adjusted down to 2% [3][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of the 2024/25 fiscal year, the company reported a revenue of HKD 35.11 billion, a decrease of 2.6% year-on-year, and a gross profit of HKD 5.86 billion, an increase of 2.3%. The attributable profit was HKD 1.76 billion, down 3.8% [3][6] - The natural gas sales segment saw a revenue decline of 9.6% to HKD 19.64 billion, while segment profit increased by 6.3% to HKD 1.66 billion [4][7] Business Segments - The LPG business segment reported a revenue increase of 13.5% to HKD 9.558 billion, but segment profit decreased to HKD 2.01 million. The value-added services segment's revenue rose by 1.0% to HKD 2.57 billion, with segment profit increasing by 11.0% to HKD 1.24 billion [4][10] - The company achieved 904,000 new residential connections in the first half of the fiscal year, with a full-year target of 1.2 to 1.4 million connections [8] Future Outlook - The company expects attributable net profits for the fiscal years 2024/25, 2025/26, and 2026/27 to reach HKD 3.763 billion, HKD 3.992 billion, and HKD 4.423 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 18.1%, 6.1%, and 10.8% respectively [4][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Gas [5] Core Views - China Gas reported a slight decline in revenue and net profit for the fiscal year 2023/24, with revenue at HKD 35.105 billion, down 2.6% year-on-year, and net profit at HKD 1.761 billion, down 3.8% year-on-year, primarily due to delays in government subsidies and increased costs [5][6] - The company's gas sales volume increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 17.13 billion m³, with town gas sales up 1.4% [5] - The retail gas gross margin improved by HKD 0.02/m³ to HKD 0.59/m³, with residential gas prices rising to HKD 2.85/m³, an increase of HKD 0.08/m³ year-on-year [5] - The company experienced a decline in new residential user connections, down 14% year-on-year, but saw significant growth in industrial and commercial connections [5] - Value-added services and comprehensive energy businesses showed rapid growth, contributing positively to the company's performance [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2023/24, the company reported revenue of HKD 81.41 billion, a decrease of 11.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 3.185 billion, down 25.8% year-on-year [6][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024/25 is projected to be HKD 0.73, with subsequent years showing growth [6][9] Business Segments - The gas sales business showed a recovery trend, with a focus on increasing commercial user connections through market development strategies [5] - The connection and engineering business accounted for 22.6% of the company's total pre-tax profit, indicating a stabilization in this segment [5] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in gas sales volume and profitability in the second half of the fiscal year, driven by improved pricing mechanisms and recovering industrial demand [5] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for the fiscal years 2024/25 to 2026/27, reflecting a more conservative outlook due to various operational challenges [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a decrease in revenue and net profit for the first half of FY2025, with total revenue at HKD 35.734 billion, down 2.70% year-on-year, and net profit at HKD 1.761 billion, down 3.81% year-on-year. The company aims to maintain a dividend of HKD 0.5 per share for the full year, corresponding to a dividend yield of 8.0% [2] - Retail gas volume growth was below expectations, but segment profits showed steady growth. The company adjusted its retail gas volume growth target for the year from +5% to +2% due to lower-than-expected sales [2] - The company is experiencing a gradual price adjustment in its city gas projects, with a price difference increase of 0.29 RMB per cubic meter, and 62% of residential gas volume has achieved price alignment [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2023A, total revenue was HKD 92.423 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.31%. For FY2024A, revenue is projected to decrease to HKD 81.863 billion, a decline of 11.43%. The net profit for FY2023A was HKD 4.293 billion, down 43.96% year-on-year, while FY2024A is expected to further decline to HKD 3.185 billion, a decrease of 25.82% [1][2] - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY2023A was HKD 0.79, projected to decrease to HKD 0.59 for FY2024A, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.89 for FY2023A and 10.64 for FY2024A [1][2] Segment Performance - The natural gas sales segment saw a profit increase of 6.28% to HKD 1.658 billion, while the connection business segment's profit rose by 13.45% to HKD 0.521 billion. The engineering design and construction segment experienced a significant profit increase of 36.25% to HKD 0.349 billion [2] - The LPG sales segment's profit plummeted by 98.96% to HKD 0.02 billion due to various market factors, while the value-added services segment's profit increased by 15.37% to HKD 1.002 billion [2] Future Outlook - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for FY2025 to HKD 3.955 billion, down from the previous estimate of HKD 4.017 billion, with expected growth rates of 24%, 12%, and 10% for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively [2] - The P/E ratios for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 are projected to be 8.56, 7.64, and 6.96 respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Neutral** rating for China Gas (384 HK) with a target price of HKD 5.92, representing a potential downside of 8.1% from the current price of HKD 6.44 [1][3] Core Views - China Gas' 1H FY25 earnings declined by 3.8% YoY to HKD 1.76 billion, missing market expectations by approximately 15% due to losses from joint ventures, higher taxes, and increased minority interests [1] - Retail gas sales volume grew by only 1.9% YoY in 1H FY25, dragged down by weak industrial gas demand, which grew by only 1% YoY [2] - The company's gas sales gross margin improved by RMB 0.02 per cubic meter to RMB 0.59, driven by residential gas price adjustments in 32 cities [2] - New residential connections declined by 14% YoY in 1H FY25 due to reduced rural coal-to-gas conversions and weak property sales [2] - The report downgrades FY25-27 earnings forecasts by 13-19%, reflecting slower industrial gas growth and reduced new residential connections [2] - Management expects the spin-off of value-added services to the US market to provide a second growth driver, but the timeline remains unclear [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is expected to decline by 6.8% YoY in FY25 to HKD 75.9 billion, followed by a gradual recovery with 2.7% and 2.9% growth in FY26 and FY27, respectively [4] - Net profit is forecasted to grow by 18.8% YoY in FY25 to HKD 3.78 billion, with further growth of 6.7% and 5.7% in FY26 and FY27, respectively [4] - EPS is expected to decline by 4.6% YoY in FY25 to HKD 0.70, with subsequent growth of 6.7% and 5.7% in FY26 and FY27, respectively [4] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to increase from 8.8x in FY24 to 9.3x in FY25, before declining to 8.7x and 8.2x in FY26 and FY27, respectively [4] - Dividend yield is expected to remain stable at 5.4% from FY25 to FY27, with a maintained dividend payout of HKD 0.35 per share [4] Operational Data and Forecasts - Total retail gas sales volume is expected to grow by 2.2% YoY in FY25 to 24.04 billion cubic meters, with growth slowing to 2.5% and 2.7% in FY26 and FY27, respectively [8] - Residential gas sales volume is forecasted to grow by 0.5% YoY in FY25 to 8.97 billion cubic meters, while industrial gas sales are expected to decline by 3.3% YoY to 14.65 billion cubic meters [8] - The gas sales gross margin is projected to remain stable at RMB 0.53 per cubic meter from FY25 to FY27 [8] - New residential connections are expected to decline by 5.2% YoY in FY25 to 1.27 million households, with further declines of 4.6% and 7.6% in FY26 and FY27, respectively [8] Valuation and Peer Comparison - China Gas is trading at a discount to its peers, with a FY25E P/E of 9.3x compared to the sector average of 12.0x [9] - The company's FY25E P/B ratio of 0.63x is below the sector average of 1.0x [9] - Among peers, China Gas has the lowest potential upside of -8.1%, compared to 27.4% for Kunlun Energy (135 HK) and 24.6% for ENN Energy (2688 HK) [13]

Financial Performance - For the six months ended September 30, 2024, the company reported a revenue of HKD 35,105,202, a decrease of 2.6% compared to HKD 36,049,154 for the same period in 2023[2]. - The gross profit for the same period was HKD 5,855,695, representing a gross margin of approximately 16.7%[3]. - The net profit attributable to the company's owners was HKD 1,760,747, down from HKD 1,830,412 in the previous year, indicating a decline of 3.8%[8]. - The total comprehensive income for the period was HKD 3,879,660, compared to HKD 3,396,983 in the prior year, reflecting an increase of 14.2%[10]. - Basic earnings per share for the period were HKD 0.3271, a decrease from HKD 0.3400 in the same period last year[11]. - The group reported a total segment profit of HKD 3,856,283 thousand for the six months ended September 30, 2024, compared to HKD 3,673,888 thousand for the same period in 2023, reflecting a growth of approximately 5%[34][37]. - The attributable profit declined by 3.8% to HKD 1,760,747,000, with basic earnings per share at HKD 0.327, also down by 3.8%[63]. - Free cash flow was HKD 2,222,093,000, down from HKD 4,974,242,000 year-on-year[101]. Assets and Liabilities - Non-current assets increased to HKD 106,183,466 as of September 30, 2024, up from HKD 103,450,545 as of March 31, 2024[14]. - Current assets totaled HKD 47,290,062, an increase from HKD 45,247,179 in the previous reporting period[14]. - The company's total assets less current liabilities amounted to HKD 105,671,479, compared to HKD 98,315,467 in the prior year[18]. - The total equity attributable to the company's owners was HKD 57,123,321, an increase from HKD 53,927,655 as of March 31, 2024[20]. - The group has total bank loans and other loans amounting to HKD 46,397,031,000 as of September 30, 2024[107]. - The group has pledged bank deposits of HKD 232,854,000, and properties, plants, and equipment valued at HKD 8,935,040,000 as of September 30, 2024[111]. Revenue Streams - The group's revenue decreased by 2.6% year-on-year to HKD 35,105,202,000[63]. - The segment revenue from natural gas sales was HKD 19,641,836 thousand for the six months ended September 30, 2024, down from HKD 21,718,489 thousand for the same period in 2023, a decrease of approximately 9.6%[34][37]. - The sales revenue from liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) amounted to HKD 9,557,976,000, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.5%[85]. - The group achieved LPG sales of 201,800 tons, which is a 1.9% increase year-on-year[85]. - The sales volume of urban and rural pipeline gas was 9.33 billion cubic meters, an increase of 1.4% compared to the same period last year[80]. Expenses and Financial Management - The interest and other income and losses for the six months ended September 30, 2024, amounted to HKD 71,135 thousand, while the financial expenses were HKD 407,825 thousand[33]. - The group’s income tax expense for the six months ended September 30, 2024, was HKD 647,264 thousand, an increase from HKD 412,023 thousand for the same period in 2023, representing a rise of approximately 57%[39][41]. - Financial expenses decreased by 16.7% to approximately HKD 828,740,000 compared to the previous year[96]. Dividends and Shareholder Information - The board declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.15 per share for the six months ended September 30, 2024, consistent with the previous year's dividend[50]. - The interim dividend will be paid in cash, with shareholders having the option to receive new shares under a scrip dividend scheme[50]. - The expected cash interim dividend checks and shares under the scrip dividend scheme will be mailed around February 18, 2025[51]. Operational Strategies and Market Position - The group is actively exploring innovative business growth paths and enhancing operational efficiency through digital transformation[60]. - The group emphasizes safety operations and aims to enhance safety management as a core objective[61]. - The group is focusing on expanding value-added services and kitchen renovation business in response to market opportunities[61]. - The group plans to actively expand its market presence in the real estate sector, with new user installation business expected to stabilize[117]. - The group aims to enhance its operational strategy by focusing on customer orientation and value creation, while exploring new business areas such as energy storage and biomass energy[116]. Market Conditions and Economic Outlook - The Chinese government has introduced significant policies to stabilize the economy, which is expected to positively impact the natural gas industry[56]. - The group anticipates that the Chinese government will introduce more concrete and effective stimulus policies to stabilize the economy, positively impacting the capital market[115]. - The global LNG prices have stabilized at low levels, providing a favorable environment for the group's operations[55].