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中国燃气(0384.HK):一次性项目影响2025财年盈利 2026财年现金流确定性仍待提高
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-01 02:31
机构:交银国际 研究员:郑民康/文昊 较多一次性项目影响2025 财年盈利,自由现金流有较大改善。中燃2025财年报表盈利同比增2.1%,核 心盈利同比降约14%,低于我们预期,主因:1)下半财年零售气量同比下滑1% ,因公司受暖冬影响约 5 个月,导致居民售气同比下跌4%;2)由于船舶出售,期內减少2.6 亿港元的租赁收入;3)2024 财年 有1.5 亿港元的一次性的退税没有在2025 财年再出现。 虽然如此,公司售气毛差同比增约4 分至每方0.54 元人民币,新增居民接驳同比仅下跌15%至150 万 戶,仍高于我们预期的125 万戶,增值业务经营利润同比增长10.6%,合乎预期。同时公司自由现金流 达到新高46.6 亿港元,末期分红亦维持在0.35 港元,合乎预期。 公司目前6.8%的股息率为我们覆盖的燃气分销商中最高,但我们认为目前公司约10 倍2026 财年市盈率 已是合理水平。目前我们认为提高评级仍需要等待盈利/现金流稳定度再提高,从而在股息率和估值上 有更好的平衡点。维持中性评级。 2026/27 财年自由现金流仍有望覆盖目前年度分红。公司2026 财年指引偏向保守:1)零售气增长2%, 售气毛 ...
中国燃气(00384):毛差稳健提升,自由现金流再创新高
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Gas [2][7][8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of HKD 79.26 billion for the fiscal year 2024/25, a decrease of 2.6% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 3.25 billion, an increase of 2.1% [7] - Free cash flow reached a record high of HKD 4.66 billion, up 8.7% year-on-year, supporting a dividend of HKD 0.50 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 6.8% [7] - The retail sales volume of natural gas showed a slight increase, with a total sales volume of 39.96 billion m³, down 4.2% year-on-year, but the gross margin improved to HKD 0.537 per m³, an increase of HKD 0.036 per m³ [7] - The connection business faced challenges, with new residential users decreasing by 15.5% year-on-year, but the decline is expected to narrow in the future [7] - Value-added services and comprehensive energy solutions are growing steadily, with revenue from value-added services reaching HKD 3.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the next fiscal years are as follows: HKD 78.49 billion for 2025/26, HKD 75.36 billion for 2026/27, and HKD 76.31 billion for 2027/28 [6] - Net profit forecasts are HKD 3.51 billion for 2025/26, HKD 3.89 billion for 2026/27, and HKD 4.33 billion for 2027/28, reflecting a growth trend [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be HKD 0.64 for 2025/26, HKD 0.71 for 2026/27, and HKD 0.79 for 2027/28 [6] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to be 11 for 2025/26, 10 for 2026/27, and 9 for 2027/28, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [7][8]
中国燃气(00384):一次性项目影响2025财年盈利,2026财年现金流确定性仍待提高
BOCOM International· 2025-06-30 06:19
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral [4][19]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's earnings for the fiscal year 2025 will be impacted by one-time items, while cash flow certainty for fiscal year 2026 remains to be improved [2][8]. - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend yield of 6.8%, which is the highest among gas distributors covered [8][19]. - The report suggests that the valuation is reasonable at approximately 10 times the fiscal year 2026 earnings, with a target price adjustment to HKD 6.80, reflecting a potential downside of 7.5% from the current price [8][19]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - FY2024: HKD 81,410 million - FY2025: HKD 79,258 million (down 2.6% YoY) - FY2026E: HKD 80,449 million (up 1.5% YoY) [3][22]. - Net profit estimates are: - FY2024: HKD 3,185 million - FY2025: HKD 3,252 million (up 2.1% YoY) - FY2026E: HKD 3,707 million (up 14% YoY) [3][22]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: - FY2024: HKD 0.73 - FY2025: HKD 0.63 (down 14.1% YoY) - FY2026E: HKD 0.68 (up 8.5% YoY) [3][22]. - The company’s free cash flow reached a record high of HKD 46.6 billion [8]. Operational Insights - Retail gas sales volume is expected to grow by 2% in FY2026, with a slight increase in gas margin to RMB 0.55 per cubic meter [10][11]. - The company anticipates adding 120,000 to 140,000 new residential connections in FY2025 [11]. - The management's guidance for FY2025 includes a gas margin of RMB 0.53 per cubic meter and a growth rate of over 2% for gas sales volume [11]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of 8.57% [6]. - The 52-week high and low for the stock are HKD 8.26 and HKD 5.87, respectively [6].
中金:维持中国燃气(00384)“跑赢大市”评级 目标价8港元
智通财经网· 2025-06-30 01:28
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Gas (00384) maintains an outperform rating due to its relatively high dividend yield, with a target price of HKD 8, corresponding to FY26/FY27 P/E ratios of 13.3x/12.6x, indicating an upside potential of 8.8% [1] - For FY25, the company reported urban gas sales of 23.52 billion cubic meters, remaining stable year-on-year, with commercial gas volume increasing by 3.7% and industrial gas volume by 1.0%. The gross margin was HKD 0.537 per cubic meter, up by HKD 0.036 per cubic meter, and the operating profit from value-added services was HKD 1.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10% [2] - The trend of improving gross margin is expected to continue into FY27, with FY26 projections indicating a 2% year-on-year increase in urban gas sales and a gross margin of HKD 0.55 per cubic meter, benefiting from an increase in the residential pricing ratio [3] Group 2 - As of the end of FY25, the company's net debt (excluding trade-related financing) was approximately HKD 47.8 billion, showing a slight decrease from FY24. The company is expected to continue controlling capital expenditures, indicating that the scale of interest-bearing debt has likely peaked, with potential for further reduction in financial expenses in FY26 due to relatively low RMB financing costs [4] - The company is projected to maintain a stable dividend per share over the next 2-3 years, with a payout ratio of 83.3% in 2024. Based on the growth outlook and debt situation, the expected dividend is around HKD 0.5 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 6.8% based on the closing price on June 27 [5]
中国燃气(00384):财报点评:每股股息不变,归母业绩恢复正增长
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-29 11:15
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of HKD 79.258 billion for the fiscal year 2024/25, a decrease of 2.6% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 3.252 billion, an increase of 2.1% year-on-year. The free cash flow for the year reached HKD 4.66 billion, up 8.7% year-on-year. The annual dividend per share remained unchanged at HKD 0.50, resulting in a current dividend yield of approximately 6.8% [2][6] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue for the fiscal year 2024/25 was HKD 79.258 billion, down 2.6% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 3.252 billion, up 2.1% year-on-year. The free cash flow increased to HKD 4.66 billion, reflecting an 8.7% year-on-year growth [2][6] Dividend Policy - The company maintained its annual dividend at HKD 0.50 per share, consistent with the previous year, resulting in a payout ratio of 83.3% and a current dividend yield of approximately 6.8% [2][6] Business Segments Performance - Natural gas sales revenue was HKD 49.05 billion, down 6.5% year-on-year. Gas connection revenue was HKD 3.63 billion, down 9.6%. Engineering design and construction revenue increased by 14.7% to HKD 1.76 billion. Liquefied petroleum gas sales revenue rose by 8.9% to HKD 19.58 billion, while value-added services revenue increased by 2.1% to HKD 3.73 billion [9] Sales Volume and Pricing - The sales volume of town gas showed a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year, with residential gas usage down 2.1% and industrial gas usage up 1.0%. The average residential gas price increased from HKD 2.71 per cubic meter in 2022 to HKD 3.00 per cubic meter in 2024, with a potential for further increases in the 2025/26 fiscal year [9] Margin Recovery - The company's gross margin improved from HKD 0.50 per cubic meter in the 2023/24 fiscal year to HKD 0.537 per cubic meter in the 2024/25 fiscal year, with expectations for further improvement to HKD 0.55 per cubic meter in the 2025/26 fiscal year [9] Connection Projects - The company added approximately 1.4 million new residential connections in the 2024/25 fiscal year, with guidance for 1.0 to 1.2 million new connections in the 2025/26 fiscal year [9] Value-Added Services - The value-added services segment achieved a pre-tax profit of HKD 1.75 billion, accounting for 26.2% of total profits, with a year-on-year growth of 10.6% [9] Financing Costs - The company optimized its debt structure, reducing the proportion of foreign currency loans to 0.5%, with the average financing cost decreasing from 4.83% to 3.84% year-on-year [9] Cash Flow - The free cash flow for the fiscal year reached HKD 4.66 billion, with expectations for further improvement due to a slowdown in capital expenditures related to connection projects [9]
中国燃气(00384) - 2025 H2 - 电话会议演示
2025-06-27 10:53
Financial Performance - The company generated an operating profit of HK$1.75 billion, a 10.6% year-over-year increase[4, 51] - Value-added Services (VAS) revenue increased by 2.1% year-over-year to HK$3.73 billion[50] - The company's full-year dividend per share remained stable at HK$ 0.50[4, 90] - Revenue decreased by 2.6% year-over-year to HK$79.258 billion[90] - Profit for the year increased by 8.7% year-over-year to HK$4.190 billion[90] - Free cash flow reached HK$4.66 billion, an 8.7% increase compared to the previous year[93] Natural Gas Business - Natural gas sales volume decreased by 4.2% year-over-year[8] - Residential natural gas sales volume increased by 3.7% year-over-year[8] - The average dollar margin for city & township projects increased from RMB 0.501/m³ to RMB 0.537/m³[15] LPG Business - LPG sales volume decreased by 3.2% year-over-year to 3.868 million tons[30] - LPG revenue increased by 8.9% year-over-year to HK$19.5755 billion[30, 90] Connections - New residential connections decreased by 15.5% year-over-year to 1,400,521 users[22] - New commercial connections increased by 46.1% year-over-year to 44,206 users[22]
中国燃气(00384) - 提名委员会职权范围
2025-06-27 09:15
中國燃氣控股有限公司 提名委員會職權範圍 中國燃氣控股有限公司 提名委員會職權範圍 (於2005年12月20日採納並於2007年7月20日,2012年12月31日, 2013年8月23日 及2025年6月27日 修 訂) – 1 – 中國燃氣控股有限公司 提名委員會職權範圍 中國燃氣控股有限公司 (「本 公 司」) 提名委員會 職權範圍 1. 組 成 2. 秘 書 本公司公司秘書須擔任委員會秘書(「秘 書」)。 3. 法定人數及決議 處 理 事 務 所 須 的 法 定 人 數 為 委 員 會 內 的 所 有 董 事 會 獨 立 非 執 行 董 事。在 正 式 召 開 的 委 員 會 會 議,倘 出 席 者 達 法 定 人 數,即 能 夠 行 使 委 員 會 獲 賦 予 或 可 行 使 的 全 部 或 任 何 授 權、權 力 及 酌 情 權。任 何 議 案 獲 超 過 一 半 出 席 該 會 議 的 委 員 通 過 後,將 成 為 委 員 會 批 准 的 有 效 決 議。 – 2 – 1.1 提名委員會(「委 員 會」)須 包 括 本 公 司 的 大 多 數 獨 立 非 執 行 董 事。委 員 會 成 員(包 ...
中国燃气(00384) - 2025 - 年度业绩
2025-06-27 08:30
Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, total revenue was HKD 79,258,009, a decrease of 2.8% from HKD 81,410,133 in the previous year[3]. - Gross profit for the same period was HKD 11,263,173, slightly down from HKD 11,304,123, reflecting a gross margin of approximately 14.2%[3]. - The company reported a net profit of HKD 4,189,979, an increase of 8.7% compared to HKD 3,852,887 in the prior year[3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for the year was HKD 0.59, compared to HKD 0.60 in the previous year, indicating a slight decline[4]. - Total comprehensive income for the year was HKD (733,795), a significant decrease from HKD 3,430,831 in the previous year[4]. - The total profit before tax for the year ended March 31, 2025, was HKD 5,183,182, down from HKD 4,612,445 in 2024, reflecting an increase of approximately 12.3%[13][14]. - The company reported a total external customer revenue of HKD 79,258,009 for 2025, compared to HKD 81,410,133 for 2024, a decrease of about 2.6%[13][14]. - The company's attributable profit increased by 2.1% year-on-year to HKD 3,251,614,000[39]. - Basic earnings per share rose by 1.7% to HKD 0.60[39]. Assets and Liabilities - Non-current assets totaled HKD 103,673,070, a slight increase from HKD 103,450,545 year-over-year[5]. - Current assets decreased to HKD 44,547,500 from HKD 45,247,179, indicating a reduction in liquidity[5]. - As of March 31, 2025, the group's net current liabilities amounted to HKD 2,354,784,000, a decrease from HKD 5,135,078,000 in the previous year[8]. - The group's total assets less current liabilities increased to HKD 101,318,286,000 from HKD 98,315,467,000 year-on-year[8]. - Non-current liabilities increased to HKD 40,591,581,000 from HKD 37,568,114,000, reflecting a rise in long-term borrowing[8]. - The total equity attributable to the owners of the company was HKD 53,864,695,000, slightly down from HKD 53,927,655,000 in the previous year[8]. - The group reported a total equity of HKD 60,726,705,000, which remained relatively stable compared to HKD 60,747,353,000 last year[8]. - Trade receivables as of March 31, 2025, amounted to HKD 5,699,682,000, an increase from HKD 5,623,799,000 in 2024[24]. - The aging analysis of trade receivables shows that HKD 2,761,029,000 is overdue by more than 365 days as of March 31, 2025, compared to HKD 2,647,000,000 in 2024[25]. - Trade payables and other payables totaled HKD 16,746,886,000 as of March 31, 2025, down from HKD 17,628,751,000 in 2024[28]. Financial Management - The company’s financial expenses decreased to HKD 1,802,182 from HKD 2,121,753, reflecting improved cost management[3]. - The company incurred financial expenses of HKD 1,073,835 in 2025, compared to HKD 1,139,162 in 2024, a decrease of about 5.8%[13][14]. - Financial expenses decreased by 15.1% to approximately HKD 1,802,182,000 compared to the previous year[58]. - The group maintained a stable liquidity ratio of 0.95, up from 0.90 year-on-year, with a net debt-to-equity ratio of 0.788[64]. Revenue Sources and Segments - Revenue sources include natural gas sales, gas connections, engineering design and construction, liquefied petroleum gas sales, value-added services, and other business contracts[10]. - The group operates in several segments, including natural gas sales, gas connections, engineering design and construction, liquefied petroleum gas sales, value-added services, and others[12]. - The group’s performance is evaluated based on the type of products sold or services provided, aligning with its organizational structure[10]. - The segment profit for the gas sales division was HKD 3,306,003 for 2025, compared to HKD 3,062,678 in 2024, indicating an increase of about 7.9%[13][14]. - The segment profit from value-added services was HKD 1,749,601 in 2025, up from HKD 1,582,032 in 2024, marking an increase of approximately 10.6%[13][14]. - The group achieved LPG sales of 3.868 million tons, a decrease of 3.2% year-on-year, with total sales revenue of HKD 19,575,477,000, an increase of 8.9%[50]. - The group reported a revenue of HKD 3,731,560,000 from value-added services, an increase of 2.1% year-on-year, with operating profit rising by 10.6%[52]. Strategic Focus and Future Plans - The company plans to focus on market expansion and new product development to drive future growth[3]. - The company is focusing on urban underground pipeline construction and renovation as part of its long-term investment strategy[37]. - The company is actively participating in the renovation of old pipelines and rural revitalization, creating new development opportunities[38]. - The group aims to enhance its market share in the integrated energy business through both external and internal growth strategies[54]. - The group is focusing on the development of energy storage and diversified energy solutions to meet various customer needs[53]. Compliance and Governance - The company has complied with the corporate governance code as per the listing rules throughout the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025[76]. - The company has adopted the standard code for securities transactions by directors, confirming compliance for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025[77]. - The annual general meeting is scheduled for August 21, 2025, to discuss the annual report for the year ending March 31, 2025[80].
中国燃气(00384) - 截至二零二五年三月三十一日止年度之末期股息
2025-06-27 08:30
EF001 EF001 發行人所發行上市權證/可轉換債券的相關信息 發行人所發行上市權證/可轉換債券 不適用 其他信息 其他信息 不適用 發行人董事 於本公告日期,劉明輝先生、黃勇先生、朱偉偉先生、李晶女士、劉暢女士及趙琨先生為本公司執行董事;熊斌先生、劉明興教 授、Ayush GUPTA先生及周雪燕女士為本公司非執行董事;以及趙玉華先生、毛二萬博士、陳燕燕女士、張凌先生及馬蔚華博士 為本公司獨立非執行董事 第 2 頁 共 2 頁 v 1.1.1 免責聲明 | 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責,對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明,並明確表示,概不對因 | | | --- | --- | | 公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 | | | 股票發行人現金股息公告 | | | 發行人名稱 | 中國燃氣控股有限公司(僅供識別) | | 股份代號 | 00384 | | 多櫃檯股份代號及貨幣 | 不適用 | | 相關股份代號及名稱 | 不適用 | | 公告標題 截至二零二五年三月三十一日止年度之末期股息 | | | 公告日期 | 2025年 ...
中国燃气(0384.HK):2025财年受暖冬影响盈利同比下降 关注明年盈利改善确定性
Ge Long Hui· 2025-06-21 02:21
Group 1 - The company is expected to report a core profit decline of 6.4% to HKD 3.7 billion for the fiscal year 2025, primarily due to the prolonged impact of a warm winter affecting gas sales volume for 4 to 5 months [1] - Retail gas sales volume is projected to increase by approximately 1% year-on-year, with only a 0.5% increase in the second half of the fiscal year, which is below the company's guidance of 2% [1] - The company anticipates a decrease of about 21% in new residential connections, totaling 1.25 million households [1] Group 2 - For fiscal year 2026, retail gas sales volume is expected to recover to a growth rate of 2%, with the gas sales margin improving to RMB 0.54 per cubic meter [2] - The company conservatively projects a slight decline in new residential connections to 1.23 million households, but may adjust this if there are positive signs in contract performance [2] - The company is expected to maintain a strong free cash flow level, despite a potential decrease in capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 [2] Group 3 - The profit forecast for fiscal year 2025 has been adjusted down by approximately 2% due to the impact of the warm winter on gas sales volume [3] - Profit growth is anticipated for fiscal years 2026 and 2027, with expected increases of 8.9% and 5.5% respectively [3] - The target price has been raised to HKD 6.7 from HKD 5.92, maintaining a neutral rating, with a focus on the company's dividend yield exceeding 6% as a defensive measure [3]