Core Viewpoint - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating on China Gas (00384) and raises the target price from HKD 8.2 to HKD 8.9, supported by a dividend yield of 7%, which is higher than the industry average of 4% to 5% [1] Summary by Category Company Performance - Management guidance indicates a projected dividend of HKD 0.5 per share for the fiscal year ending March 2026, which is expected to be sustainable over the coming years [1] Market Comparison - The dividend yield of 7% for China Gas is significantly above the industry average of 4% to 5%, providing a competitive edge in the market [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent policy changes in China's energy sector, particularly the "Document No. 136," which promotes market participation for renewable energy and establishes a sustainable pricing mechanism for new energy projects [1] - It highlights the shift in energy storage projects from mere compliance to creating actual economic benefits for users and the power system [1] Group 1: Policy and Market Changes - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notice to deepen the market-oriented reform of renewable energy pricing [1] - The new policy encourages energy storage projects to focus on generating actual revenue through various means such as peak-valley arbitrage and frequency regulation services [1] Group 2: Company Capabilities - China Gas has emerged as a leading player in the commercial energy storage sector, leveraging its technological expertise and comprehensive service system [3] - The company offers a full lifecycle service that addresses user pain points, including customized energy storage system design, standardized installation, and professional operation and maintenance [3][4] Group 3: Project Implementation - China Gas has successfully implemented numerous energy storage projects in regions like the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, demonstrating its ability to adapt to different scales of enterprise needs [4] - The company has established partnerships with high-energy-consuming industries, showcasing its technical advantages in energy storage solutions [4] Group 4: Revenue Generation - The primary revenue source for China Gas comes from peak-valley arbitrage, with specific projects demonstrating significant cost savings for enterprises [6] - The company has developed a robust revenue structure that reduces reliance on peak-valley arbitrage by integrating virtual power plants and participating in demand response services [7] Group 5: Competitive Advantage - China Gas has transformed energy storage assets from mere cost optimization tools to revenue-generating vehicles, enhancing its value proposition for commercial users [8] - The company’s comprehensive energy service model positions it favorably in the market, allowing it to meet diverse energy management needs while ensuring safety and cost efficiency [10] Group 6: Future Growth Potential - The article suggests that as a comprehensive energy service provider, China Gas has a higher growth ceiling compared to pure energy storage companies [10] - The integration of energy storage into a holistic energy management system presents significant opportunities for China Gas, enabling it to optimize overall energy costs and enhance its market presence [10]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Daiwa upgrades the outlook for the mainland natural gas industry to "neutral," anticipating improvements in the fundamentals of companies by 2026 [1] Industry Summary - It is expected that the sales volume of major natural gas companies in mainland China will see low single-digit growth compared to last year's low base by 2026 [1] - The gas price margin is projected to increase by 1 to 2 cents year-on-year, assuming a mild winter and no significant deterioration in competition [1] - The new connection volume for major companies is expected to decline by low to mid-double digits year-on-year, although its impact is gradually diminishing [1] Company Summary - Major companies are expected to maintain stable or slightly increased dividends year-on-year [1] - The report favors high-yield stocks such as China Gas (00384) and Hong Kong and China Gas (00003), with target prices set at HKD 8.3 and HKD 7.7 respectively, both rated as "outperform" [1] - The rating for Hong Kong and China Gas has been upgraded from "hold" to "outperform" due to potential turnaround in its EcoCeres business [1]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa has upgraded its view on the mainland natural gas industry to "neutral," anticipating improvements in the fundamentals of companies by 2026 [1] Industry Summary - It is expected that the sales volume of major natural gas companies in the mainland will see low to mid-single-digit growth compared to last year's low base by 2026 [1] - The gas price differential is projected to increase by 1 to 2 cents year-on-year, assuming a mild winter and no significant deterioration in competition [1] - The new connection volume for major companies is expected to decline by low to mid-double digits year-on-year, although the impact is gradually diminishing [1] Company Summary - Major companies are expected to maintain stable or slightly increased dividends year-on-year [1] - The company prefers high-yield stocks such as China Gas and Towngas, with target prices set at HKD 8.3 and HKD 7.7 respectively, both rated as "outperform" [1] - Towngas's rating has been upgraded from "hold" to "outperform" due to potential turnaround in its EcoCeres business [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Gas Holdings Limited has officially launched the issuance of two Panda bonds, each with an issuance amount of 500 million RMB, marking the commencement of Panda bond issuance for the year 2026 [1] Group 1 - The total amount raised from the two Panda bonds will be 1 billion RMB [1] - The funds will be allocated to a National Revenue Account (NRA) established by the issuer in the domestic market [1] - The purpose of the funds is to repay the issuer's upcoming debt financing instruments [1]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國燃氣控股有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年1月5日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 2. 股份分類 | 優先股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | N/A | 說明 | 優先股B | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 56,402,477 | | 0 | | 56,402,477 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | 0 | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 56,402,477 | | 0 | | 56,402,477 | | 3. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | -- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, indicating potential investment opportunities in these areas [1]. Core Insights - The 2026 long-term electricity prices are under pressure, with significant declines observed in transaction prices across various provinces, reflecting a shift in the power generation model from reliance on thermal power to a more diversified income structure [6][7]. - Natural gas consumption saw a year-on-year increase of 5.1% in November 2025, indicating a recovery in demand, particularly due to heating needs during the winter season [34]. - The report highlights the importance of optimizing the electricity market mechanism and restructuring the power generation mix as key future trends [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: 2026 Long-term Electricity Prices - The annual transaction results for 2026 show a total transaction volume of 2,724.81 billion kWh in Jiangsu, with a weighted average price of 344.19 yuan/MWh, down 16.55% from the previous year [6][8]. - Similar trends are observed in Guangdong and Anhui, with prices decreasing by 5.03% and 10.09% respectively [6][8]. - The report suggests that coastal provinces will face significant pricing pressure in 2026, as the role of thermal power shifts from being the main energy source to a regulatory support role [7]. 2. Gas: November Natural Gas Consumption - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of natural gas reached 362.8 billion m³, marking a 5.1% increase year-on-year, while the total consumption from January to November was 3,880 billion m³, a slight decline of 0.1% [34]. - The report notes that the increase in consumption is attributed to a low base from the previous year and a recovery in industrial gas demand [34]. - The report also highlights a favorable trend in natural gas pricing, with a decrease in costs due to lower international oil prices and improved supply conditions [36]. 3. Investment Analysis Recommendations - For thermal power, the report recommends companies with integrated coal and power operations, such as Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian, as well as those with significant large unit ratios like Datang Power and Huaneng International [10]. - In the hydropower sector, companies like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power are recommended due to their sufficient capacity and expected improvements in profit margins [10]. - The report suggests focusing on nuclear power companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power, which have stable cost structures and high utilization hours [10]. - For green energy, companies such as Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power are highlighted for their stable returns and increasing operational benefits from environmental value releases [10].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for various sectors within the energy industry, particularly recommending companies involved in coal power, hydropower, nuclear power, green energy, and gas [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that in November 2025, the total electricity consumption reached 835.6 billion kWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. The growth contributions from the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries, as well as residential consumption, were 2%, 49%, 29%, and 19% respectively [4][6]. - The secondary industry remains the largest contributor to electricity consumption, accounting for over 60% of the total, with significant growth in high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors [5][6]. - Natural gas prices have shown fluctuations, with the U.S. Henry Hub spot price at $3.31/mmBtu, reflecting a weekly decline of 7.30%. The report notes that the domestic LNG ex-factory price is 3915 yuan/ton, down 2.85% week-on-week [1][16]. Summary by Sections Electricity Sector - In November 2025, the electricity consumption by the first, second, and third industries grew by 7.9%, 4.4%, and 10.3% respectively, while residential consumption increased by 9.8% [4][6]. - The high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors saw a 6.7% increase in electricity consumption, with automotive manufacturing leading at a 10% growth rate [5][6]. Natural Gas Sector - The report indicates that global gas prices are experiencing slight fluctuations, with the U.S. market showing a significant drop in spot prices. The report anticipates that the demand for natural gas will increase as winter approaches, potentially stabilizing prices [1][16]. - Recommendations include focusing on integrated gas companies and those benefiting from cost reductions and improved profitability due to lower oil prices [39][40]. Investment Recommendations - For coal power, companies like Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian are recommended due to their diversified revenue sources [1]. - Hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation are favored due to expected improvements in profit margins from reduced capital expenditures [1]. - Nuclear power firms like China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are highlighted for their stable cost structures and growth potential [1]. - In the green energy sector, companies like Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power are recommended for their stable returns and increasing operational value [1]. - The report also suggests investment in gas companies like Shenzhen Energy and Kunlun Energy, which are expected to benefit from cost reductions and improved market conditions [1][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the utility and environmental sectors, indicating potential investment opportunities in these areas [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that in November, the total electricity consumption in China reached 835.6 billion kWh, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.2%. The contributions from various sectors were: primary industry (7.9%), secondary industry (4.4%), tertiary industry (10.3%), and urban and rural residents (9.8%) [3][8]. - The growth in electricity consumption is primarily driven by the tertiary industry, particularly in sectors related to big data analysis and artificial intelligence services, which saw significant increases in electricity usage [9]. - The report notes that the natural gas market is experiencing slight fluctuations, with LNG prices continuing to decline. As of December 26, the national LNG ex-factory price was 3915 RMB/ton, down 2.85% week-on-week [3][40]. Summary by Sections Electricity Sector - In November, the total electricity consumption was 8356 billion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. The secondary industry contributed 49% to the growth, while the tertiary industry followed with a 29% contribution [10][11]. - The high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors showed a notable increase in electricity consumption, with a year-on-year growth of 6.7%, surpassing the average growth rate of the manufacturing sector by 2.5 percentage points [9][10]. Natural Gas Sector - The report indicates that global gas prices are experiencing minor fluctuations, with the Henry Hub spot price at $3.31/mmBtu, reflecting a weekly decrease of 7.30%. The TTF spot price in the Netherlands was €27.70/MWh, down 1.42% week-on-week [3][19]. - The report suggests that the LNG ex-factory price in China is under pressure due to high inventory levels and low-cost sea gas resources, leading to a continued downward trend [40][41]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their performance and market positioning: - For thermal power, companies like Guodian Power, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and Datang Power are highlighted for their integrated coal and power operations [3][17]. - In the hydropower sector, companies such as Yangtze Power and Guotou Power are recommended due to their stable financial performance and reduced capital expenditures [3][17]. - For nuclear power, China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are suggested due to their stable cost structures and growth potential [3][17]. - In the green energy sector, companies like Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power are noted for their improved returns from stable project yields [3][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights an upward adjustment in temperature expectations leading to a decrease in US gas prices, while European gas prices show a slight increase due to inventory withdrawals [1][4] - Domestic gas demand shows marginal improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 9.3% in November 2025 [1][25] Price Tracking - As of December 26, 2025, the week-on-week changes in gas prices are as follows: US HH down by 8.2%, European TTF up by 0.9%, East Asia JKM up by 0.5%, China LNG ex-factory down by 2.9%, and China LNG CIF up by 0.7% [9][14] - The average gas price in China is reported at 2.6 yuan per cubic meter for LNG ex-factory and 2.4 yuan per cubic meter for LNG CIF [14] Supply and Demand Analysis - US natural gas market prices decreased by 8.2% due to higher temperature expectations, with storage levels dropping by 1.2% year-on-year [16] - European gas consumption from January to September 2025 reached 313.8 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [18] - Domestic gas consumption in China for January to November 2025 increased by 1.5% year-on-year, totaling 392 billion cubic meters [25][28] Pricing Mechanism Progress - Nationwide price adjustments for residential gas have been gradually implemented, with 67% of cities adjusting prices by an average of 0.22 yuan per cubic meter [37] - The report indicates that there is still a 10% room for price adjustment in the gas distribution sector [37] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing price mechanism adjustments, recommending companies such as Xin'ao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy [53][54] - It also highlights the importance of companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling, recommending Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Shares [54] - The report emphasizes the significance of energy independence, suggesting attention to companies with gas production capabilities like New Natural Gas and Blue Flame Holdings [54]