Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural gas industry is "Positive" (first-time rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - Natural gas is recognized as a clean, low-carbon, and flexible fossil energy source, serving as a crucial bridge for energy transition. It is expected to support global energy transformation for an extended period [4][7] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has shown significant achievements in supply-side development, with infrastructure construction accelerating. By the end of 2024, China's natural gas production is projected to reach 246.451 billion cubic meters, a 28% increase from 2020 [4][14] - The consumption growth rate of natural gas during the "14th Five-Year Plan" has slowed compared to the previous five years, but the price mechanism is gradually being rationalized. The apparent consumption of natural gas in China is expected to reach 426.05 billion cubic meters in 2024, an 8% year-on-year increase [4][36] - The report anticipates a continued downward trend in natural gas costs, with stable demand growth expected before 2030. The demand for LNG in the transportation sector is projected to reach 40-55 billion cubic meters by 2030 [4][14] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Natural gas is positioned as a transitional energy source to achieve carbon peak goals by 2030, with a target of 15% of total energy consumption by that year [4][7] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes energy security, energy conservation, and carbon reduction, with a clear trend of increasing natural gas consumption in provincial plans [8] Supply and Infrastructure - Significant progress has been made in increasing domestic gas production, with a focus on conventional and unconventional gas sources. The total length of natural gas pipelines reached 126,000 kilometers by the end of 2023 [14][25] - By the end of 2024, 31 LNG receiving stations will be operational, with a total receiving capacity exceeding 15 million tons per year [25][26] Consumption Trends - The natural gas consumption structure includes urban gas, industrial fuel, power generation, and chemical use, with urban gas and industrial fuel maintaining stable proportions [36] - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical factors on gas prices, with a notable increase in the average import price of LNG in 2022 [4][19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on upstream exploration companies like Xin Natural Gas, integrated companies like ENN Energy and Jiufeng Energy, and downstream city gas companies such as China Resources Gas and Kunlun Energy [4]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·公用事业Ⅱ(HS) 中国燃气（00384.HK） 24/25 财年年报点评：自由现金流改善，DPS 维持 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 81,863 | 80,255 | 79,610 | 81,073 | 83,311 | | 同比(%) | (11.43) | (1.96) | (0.80) | 1.84 | 2.76 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 3,185 | 3,252 | 3,477 | 3,726 | 3,997 | | 同比(%) | (25.82) | 2.09 | 6.93 | 7.16 | 7.28 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.58 | 0.60 | 0.64 | 0.68 | 0.73 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 12.54 | 12.28 | 11.49 | 10.72 | 9.99 | 20 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Gas reported a revenue of HKD 79.258 billion for the fiscal year 2024/25, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.1% to HKD 3.252 billion, with a stable dividend of HKD 0.50 per share, meeting expectations [1] Revenue Breakdown - Natural gas sales revenue was HKD 49.05 billion, down 6.5% year-on-year - Gas connection revenue was HKD 3.63 billion, down 9.6% year-on-year - Engineering design and construction revenue was HKD 1.76 billion, up 14.7% year-on-year - Liquefied petroleum gas sales revenue was HKD 19.58 billion, up 8.9% year-on-year - Value-added services revenue was HKD 3.73 billion, up 2.1% year-on-year [1] Sales Volume Insights - The volume of gas transported and traded decreased by 9.6% year-on-year - Town gas volume saw a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year, with residential gas down 2.1%, industrial gas up 1.0%, commercial gas up 3.7%, and gas station gas down 9.0% - The lower-than-expected town gas volume was attributed to a warm winter and economic pressures affecting industrial gas growth [1] Pricing and Margin Analysis - As of March 2025, the cumulative completion of residential gas pricing was approximately 68%, with residential gas prices rising from CNY 2.71 per cubic meter in 2022 to CNY 3.00 in 2024 - The gross margin improved from CNY 0.50 per cubic meter in the fiscal year 2023/24 to CNY 0.537 in 2024/25, with a forecasted increase to CNY 0.55 in 2025/26 [2] Connection Engineering Performance - In the fiscal year 2024/25, the company added approximately 1.4 million new residential connections, with guidance for 1.2-1.4 million - The tax-pre-profit margin from connection and engineering construction decreased to 16.3% last year, with expectations for reduced performance drag from declining connection numbers [2] Value-Added Services Growth - Value-added services achieved a pre-tax profit of HKD 1.75 billion, accounting for 26.2% of total profits, with a year-on-year increase of 10.6% - The growth was driven by increased user coverage, improved operational efficiency, and a richer product and service mix, with guidance for a similar growth rate in 2025/26 [3] Financing and Cash Flow - The company optimized its debt structure, reducing the proportion of foreign currency loans to 0.5%, with the average financing cost decreasing from 4.83% to 3.84% - Free cash flow reached HKD 4.66 billion, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year, with expectations for further improvement due to reduced capital expenditures from declining connection numbers [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company's FY25 earnings fell below expectations, with a revenue of HKD 79.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3%, and a net profit of HKD 3.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2% [1] Financial Performance - FY25 revenue was HKD 79.3 billion, down 3% year-on-year - FY25 net profit was HKD 3.25 billion, up 2% year-on-year, but below expectations - The decline in performance was primarily due to underperformance in joint venture earnings, which fell 37% year-on-year to HKD 441 million, and a 31% increase in income tax expenses to HKD 993 million due to reduced tax refunds [1] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of HKD 0.35 per share, maintaining the same level as the previous year, with a total annual dividend of HKD 0.50 per share [1] Sales and Margins - FY25 urban gas sales were 23.52 billion cubic meters, remaining stable year-on-year - Residential gas sales decreased by 2.1%, while commercial and industrial gas sales increased by 3.7% and 1.0%, respectively - The gross margin was HKD 0.537 per cubic meter, an increase of HKD 0.036 year-on-year - The company added 1.4 million residential connections, a decrease of 16.5% year-on-year [1] Cash Flow and Investments - FY25 investment cash outflow was HKD 1.78 billion, down 74.8% year-on-year, mainly due to the recovery of loans from joint ventures and a reduction in capital expenditures by approximately HKD 1.4 billion [1] Future Outlook - The trend of improving gross margins is expected to continue until FY27 - For FY26, the company anticipates a 2% year-on-year increase in urban gas sales and a gross margin of HKD 0.55 per cubic meter, driven by an increase in residential pricing ratios [1] Debt and Financial Management - As of the end of FY25, the company's net debt (excluding trade-related financing) was approximately HKD 47.8 billion, showing a slight decrease from FY24 - The company is expected to maintain control over capital expenditures, indicating that the debt level has likely peaked [2] - FY25 saw an increase in receivables provision of HKD 568 million, with ongoing pressure expected in FY26 due to uncertainties in the real estate sector [2] Dividend and Valuation - The company maintained a dividend payout ratio of 83.3% in 2024, with expectations for stable dividends of HKD 0.50 per share over the next 2-3 years, translating to a dividend yield of approximately 6.8% based on the closing price on June 27 [2] - Earnings forecasts for FY26 have been revised down by 32% to HKD 3.285 billion, with FY27 earnings projected at HKD 3.449 billion [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 12.2x for FY26 and 11.6x for FY27, with a target price adjustment of 9.1% down to HKD 8, indicating an upside potential of 8.8% [2]

接驳业务继续承压，降幅同比有所收窄。2024/25 财年公司新增居民用户140.05 万户，同比下滑15.5% （去年同比下滑28%）。在接驳用户增量中，存量用户占比达到34.5%，同比增长2.7 个百分点。 2024/25 财年接驳及工程业务合计税前利润仅占公司全部业务税前利润的16.4%，接驳业务对利润贡献 度持续下降。根据公司业绩指引，2025/26 财年新增接驳用户数量小幅下降至100-120 万户，接驳用户 数有望降幅进一步收窄，接驳业务未来对公司整体业绩影响可控。 增值业务与综合能源稳健成长，打造公司成长新动能。2024/25 财年，公司增值业务收入达37.32 亿港 元，同比增长2.1%，经营利润17.5 亿港元，同比增长10.6%。公司以"壹品慧"平台业务作为增值服务业 务主要服务载体，通过增加服务范围及网格精细化管理，盈利能力持续提升。综合能源业务方面，公司 全年供能规模达77.6 亿KWh，切入工商业用户侧储能、绿电、综合能效等业务领域，为客户打绿色低 碳综合能源服务生态，提供多元能源解决方案。 机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：王璐/朱赫 中国燃气发布2024/25 财年业绩。2024/25 ...

机构：交银国际 研究员：郑民康/文昊 较多一次性项目影响2025 财年盈利，自由现金流有较大改善。中燃2025财年报表盈利同比增2.1%，核 心盈利同比降约14%，低于我们预期，主因：1）下半财年零售气量同比下滑1% ，因公司受暖冬影响约 5 个月，导致居民售气同比下跌4%；2）由于船舶出售，期內减少2.6 亿港元的租赁收入；3）2024 财年 有1.5 亿港元的一次性的退税没有在2025 财年再出现。 虽然如此，公司售气毛差同比增约4 分至每方0.54 元人民币，新增居民接驳同比仅下跌15%至150 万 戶，仍高于我们预期的125 万戶，增值业务经营利润同比增长10.6%，合乎预期。同时公司自由现金流 达到新高46.6 亿港元，末期分红亦维持在0.35 港元，合乎预期。 公司目前6.8%的股息率为我们覆盖的燃气分销商中最高，但我们认为目前公司约10 倍2026 财年市盈率 已是合理水平。目前我们认为提高评级仍需要等待盈利/现金流稳定度再提高，从而在股息率和估值上 有更好的平衡点。维持中性评级。 2026/27 财年自由现金流仍有望覆盖目前年度分红。公司2026 财年指引偏向保守：1）零售气增长2%， 售气毛 ...

上 市 公 司 2025 年 06 月 30 日 中国燃气 (00384) ——毛差稳健提升 自由现金流再创新高 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 06 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 7.35 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8762.47 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 8.40/5.78 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 400.44 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 5,448.15 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0959 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -11% 9% 29% 49% HSCEI 中国燃气 资料来源：Bloomberg 公用事业 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/26E | 2026/27E | 2027/28E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万港元） | 81,410 | 79,258 | 78,487 | 75,362 | 76,308 | | 同比增长率（% ...

| 财务数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年结3月31日 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | 收入 (百万港元) | 81,410 | 79,258 | 80,449 | 82,049 | 83,692 | | 同比增长 (%) | -11.5 | -2.6 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | | 净利润 (百万港元) | 3,185 | 3,252 | 3,707 | 3,934 | 4,114 | | 每股盈利 (港元) | 0.73 | 0.63 | 0.68 | 0.72 | 0.76 | | 同比增长 (%) | -4.2 | -14.1 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 4.6 | | 前EPS预测值 (港元) | | | 0.74 | 0.79 | | | 调整幅度 (%) | | | -8.5 | -8.0 | | | 市盈率 (倍) | 10.1 | 11.7 | 10.8 | 10.2 | 9.7 | | 每股账面净值 (港元) | 9.92 | 9.89 | 10 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Gas (00384) maintains an outperform rating due to its relatively high dividend yield, with a target price of HKD 8, corresponding to FY26/FY27 P/E ratios of 13.3x/12.6x, indicating an upside potential of 8.8% [1] - For FY25, the company reported urban gas sales of 23.52 billion cubic meters, remaining stable year-on-year, with commercial gas volume increasing by 3.7% and industrial gas volume by 1.0%. The gross margin was HKD 0.537 per cubic meter, up by HKD 0.036 per cubic meter, and the operating profit from value-added services was HKD 1.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10% [2] - The trend of improving gross margin is expected to continue into FY27, with FY26 projections indicating a 2% year-on-year increase in urban gas sales and a gross margin of HKD 0.55 per cubic meter, benefiting from an increase in the residential pricing ratio [3] Group 2 - As of the end of FY25, the company's net debt (excluding trade-related financing) was approximately HKD 47.8 billion, showing a slight decrease from FY24. The company is expected to continue controlling capital expenditures, indicating that the scale of interest-bearing debt has likely peaked, with potential for further reduction in financial expenses in FY26 due to relatively low RMB financing costs [4] - The company is projected to maintain a stable dividend per share over the next 2-3 years, with a payout ratio of 83.3% in 2024. Based on the growth outlook and debt situation, the expected dividend is around HKD 0.5 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 6.8% based on the closing price on June 27 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of HKD 79.258 billion for the fiscal year 2024/25, a decrease of 2.6% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 3.252 billion, an increase of 2.1% year-on-year. The free cash flow for the year reached HKD 4.66 billion, up 8.7% year-on-year. The annual dividend per share remained unchanged at HKD 0.50, resulting in a current dividend yield of approximately 6.8% [2][6] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue for the fiscal year 2024/25 was HKD 79.258 billion, down 2.6% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 3.252 billion, up 2.1% year-on-year. The free cash flow increased to HKD 4.66 billion, reflecting an 8.7% year-on-year growth [2][6] Dividend Policy - The company maintained its annual dividend at HKD 0.50 per share, consistent with the previous year, resulting in a payout ratio of 83.3% and a current dividend yield of approximately 6.8% [2][6] Business Segments Performance - Natural gas sales revenue was HKD 49.05 billion, down 6.5% year-on-year. Gas connection revenue was HKD 3.63 billion, down 9.6%. Engineering design and construction revenue increased by 14.7% to HKD 1.76 billion. Liquefied petroleum gas sales revenue rose by 8.9% to HKD 19.58 billion, while value-added services revenue increased by 2.1% to HKD 3.73 billion [9] Sales Volume and Pricing - The sales volume of town gas showed a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year, with residential gas usage down 2.1% and industrial gas usage up 1.0%. The average residential gas price increased from HKD 2.71 per cubic meter in 2022 to HKD 3.00 per cubic meter in 2024, with a potential for further increases in the 2025/26 fiscal year [9] Margin Recovery - The company's gross margin improved from HKD 0.50 per cubic meter in the 2023/24 fiscal year to HKD 0.537 per cubic meter in the 2024/25 fiscal year, with expectations for further improvement to HKD 0.55 per cubic meter in the 2025/26 fiscal year [9] Connection Projects - The company added approximately 1.4 million new residential connections in the 2024/25 fiscal year, with guidance for 1.0 to 1.2 million new connections in the 2025/26 fiscal year [9] Value-Added Services - The value-added services segment achieved a pre-tax profit of HKD 1.75 billion, accounting for 26.2% of total profits, with a year-on-year growth of 10.6% [9] Financing Costs - The company optimized its debt structure, reducing the proportion of foreign currency loans to 0.5%, with the average financing cost decreasing from 4.83% to 3.84% year-on-year [9] Cash Flow - The free cash flow for the fiscal year reached HKD 4.66 billion, with expectations for further improvement due to a slowdown in capital expenditures related to connection projects [9]