联合研究丨港股公司深度丨中国燃气（0384.HK） [Table_Title] 中国燃气：高股息燃气龙头，顺价带动毛差回升 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Summary] 中国燃气是中国最大的城燃公司之一，从此前的跑马圈地式高速发展逐渐过渡到目前的稳健经 营阶段，近两年分红金额维持在 27.2 亿港元，股息率约 7%。受益于居民燃气顺价和上游采购 成本下降带来毛差修复；燃气接驳工程业绩占比已到低位，我们预计自 2024/25 财年开始将扭 转此前业绩大幅下滑的趋势，EPS 重新恢复增长。PB 和 PE 估值仍处低位，看好公司价值重 估机会。 报告要点 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520070003 SFC：BUV415 SFC：BQT627 宋尚骞 SAC：S0490520110001 徐科 张韦华 贾少波 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 30 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 中国燃气 2023 ...

联合研究丨港股公司深度丨中国燃气（0384.HK） [Table_Title] 中国燃气：高股息燃气龙头，顺价带动毛差回升 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 中国燃气是中国最大的城燃公司之一，从此前的跑马圈地式高速发展逐渐过渡到目前的稳健经 营阶段，近两年分红金额维持在 27.2 亿港元，股息率约 7%。受益于居民燃气顺价和上游采购 成本下降带来毛差修复；燃气接驳工程业绩占比已到低位，我们预计自 2024/25 财年开始将扭 转此前业绩大幅下滑的趋势，EPS 重新恢复增长。PB 和 PE 估值仍处低位，看好公司价值重 估机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 徐科 张韦华 贾少波 SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520070003 SFC：BUV415 SFC：BQT627 宋尚骞 SAC：S0490520110001 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 30 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 中国燃气（038 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 2.6% year-on-year to HKD 35.11 billion in the first half of the 2024/25 fiscal year, while gross profit increased by 2.3% to HKD 5.86 billion. The attributable profit decreased by 3.8% to HKD 1.76 billion [3][6] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of HKD 0.15 per share, unchanged from the previous year, resulting in a dividend yield of 7.8% based on the closing price on December 6, 2024 [4][10] - Natural gas retail volume grew by 1.4% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase to HKD 0.59 per cubic meter. The full-year gross margin guidance remains at HKD 0.53 per cubic meter, while the retail gas growth forecast has been adjusted down to 2% [3][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of the 2024/25 fiscal year, the company reported a revenue of HKD 35.11 billion, a decrease of 2.6% year-on-year, and a gross profit of HKD 5.86 billion, an increase of 2.3%. The attributable profit was HKD 1.76 billion, down 3.8% [3][6] - The natural gas sales segment saw a revenue decline of 9.6% to HKD 19.64 billion, while segment profit increased by 6.3% to HKD 1.66 billion [4][7] Business Segments - The LPG business segment reported a revenue increase of 13.5% to HKD 9.558 billion, but segment profit decreased to HKD 2.01 million. The value-added services segment's revenue rose by 1.0% to HKD 2.57 billion, with segment profit increasing by 11.0% to HKD 1.24 billion [4][10] - The company achieved 904,000 new residential connections in the first half of the fiscal year, with a full-year target of 1.2 to 1.4 million connections [8] Future Outlook - The company expects attributable net profits for the fiscal years 2024/25, 2025/26, and 2026/27 to reach HKD 3.763 billion, HKD 3.992 billion, and HKD 4.423 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 18.1%, 6.1%, and 10.8% respectively [4][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Gas [5] Core Views - China Gas reported a slight decline in revenue and net profit for the fiscal year 2023/24, with revenue at HKD 35.105 billion, down 2.6% year-on-year, and net profit at HKD 1.761 billion, down 3.8% year-on-year, primarily due to delays in government subsidies and increased costs [5][6] - The company's gas sales volume increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 17.13 billion m³, with town gas sales up 1.4% [5] - The retail gas gross margin improved by HKD 0.02/m³ to HKD 0.59/m³, with residential gas prices rising to HKD 2.85/m³, an increase of HKD 0.08/m³ year-on-year [5] - The company experienced a decline in new residential user connections, down 14% year-on-year, but saw significant growth in industrial and commercial connections [5] - Value-added services and comprehensive energy businesses showed rapid growth, contributing positively to the company's performance [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2023/24, the company reported revenue of HKD 81.41 billion, a decrease of 11.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 3.185 billion, down 25.8% year-on-year [6][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024/25 is projected to be HKD 0.73, with subsequent years showing growth [6][9] Business Segments - The gas sales business showed a recovery trend, with a focus on increasing commercial user connections through market development strategies [5] - The connection and engineering business accounted for 22.6% of the company's total pre-tax profit, indicating a stabilization in this segment [5] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in gas sales volume and profitability in the second half of the fiscal year, driven by improved pricing mechanisms and recovering industrial demand [5] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for the fiscal years 2024/25 to 2026/27, reflecting a more conservative outlook due to various operational challenges [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a decrease in revenue and net profit for the first half of FY2025, with total revenue at HKD 35.734 billion, down 2.70% year-on-year, and net profit at HKD 1.761 billion, down 3.81% year-on-year. The company aims to maintain a dividend of HKD 0.5 per share for the full year, corresponding to a dividend yield of 8.0% [2] - Retail gas volume growth was below expectations, but segment profits showed steady growth. The company adjusted its retail gas volume growth target for the year from +5% to +2% due to lower-than-expected sales [2] - The company is experiencing a gradual price adjustment in its city gas projects, with a price difference increase of 0.29 RMB per cubic meter, and 62% of residential gas volume has achieved price alignment [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2023A, total revenue was HKD 92.423 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.31%. For FY2024A, revenue is projected to decrease to HKD 81.863 billion, a decline of 11.43%. The net profit for FY2023A was HKD 4.293 billion, down 43.96% year-on-year, while FY2024A is expected to further decline to HKD 3.185 billion, a decrease of 25.82% [1][2] - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY2023A was HKD 0.79, projected to decrease to HKD 0.59 for FY2024A, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.89 for FY2023A and 10.64 for FY2024A [1][2] Segment Performance - The natural gas sales segment saw a profit increase of 6.28% to HKD 1.658 billion, while the connection business segment's profit rose by 13.45% to HKD 0.521 billion. The engineering design and construction segment experienced a significant profit increase of 36.25% to HKD 0.349 billion [2] - The LPG sales segment's profit plummeted by 98.96% to HKD 0.02 billion due to various market factors, while the value-added services segment's profit increased by 15.37% to HKD 1.002 billion [2] Future Outlook - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for FY2025 to HKD 3.955 billion, down from the previous estimate of HKD 4.017 billion, with expected growth rates of 24%, 12%, and 10% for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively [2] - The P/E ratios for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 are projected to be 8.56, 7.64, and 6.96 respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Neutral** rating for China Gas (384 HK) with a target price of HKD 5.92, representing a potential downside of 8.1% from the current price of HKD 6.44 [1][3] Core Views - China Gas' 1H FY25 earnings declined by 3.8% YoY to HKD 1.76 billion, missing market expectations by approximately 15% due to losses from joint ventures, higher taxes, and increased minority interests [1] - Retail gas sales volume grew by only 1.9% YoY in 1H FY25, dragged down by weak industrial gas demand, which grew by only 1% YoY [2] - The company's gas sales gross margin improved by RMB 0.02 per cubic meter to RMB 0.59, driven by residential gas price adjustments in 32 cities [2] - New residential connections declined by 14% YoY in 1H FY25 due to reduced rural coal-to-gas conversions and weak property sales [2] - The report downgrades FY25-27 earnings forecasts by 13-19%, reflecting slower industrial gas growth and reduced new residential connections [2] - Management expects the spin-off of value-added services to the US market to provide a second growth driver, but the timeline remains unclear [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is expected to decline by 6.8% YoY in FY25 to HKD 75.9 billion, followed by a gradual recovery with 2.7% and 2.9% growth in FY26 and FY27, respectively [4] - Net profit is forecasted to grow by 18.8% YoY in FY25 to HKD 3.78 billion, with further growth of 6.7% and 5.7% in FY26 and FY27, respectively [4] - EPS is expected to decline by 4.6% YoY in FY25 to HKD 0.70, with subsequent growth of 6.7% and 5.7% in FY26 and FY27, respectively [4] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to increase from 8.8x in FY24 to 9.3x in FY25, before declining to 8.7x and 8.2x in FY26 and FY27, respectively [4] - Dividend yield is expected to remain stable at 5.4% from FY25 to FY27, with a maintained dividend payout of HKD 0.35 per share [4] Operational Data and Forecasts - Total retail gas sales volume is expected to grow by 2.2% YoY in FY25 to 24.04 billion cubic meters, with growth slowing to 2.5% and 2.7% in FY26 and FY27, respectively [8] - Residential gas sales volume is forecasted to grow by 0.5% YoY in FY25 to 8.97 billion cubic meters, while industrial gas sales are expected to decline by 3.3% YoY to 14.65 billion cubic meters [8] - The gas sales gross margin is projected to remain stable at RMB 0.53 per cubic meter from FY25 to FY27 [8] - New residential connections are expected to decline by 5.2% YoY in FY25 to 1.27 million households, with further declines of 4.6% and 7.6% in FY26 and FY27, respectively [8] Valuation and Peer Comparison - China Gas is trading at a discount to its peers, with a FY25E P/E of 9.3x compared to the sector average of 12.0x [9] - The company's FY25E P/B ratio of 0.63x is below the sector average of 1.0x [9] - Among peers, China Gas has the lowest potential upside of -8.1%, compared to 27.4% for Kunlun Energy (135 HK) and 24.6% for ENN Energy (2688 HK) [13]

Financial Performance - For the six months ended September 30, 2024, the company reported a revenue of HKD 35,105,202, a decrease of 2.6% compared to HKD 36,049,154 for the same period in 2023[2]. - The gross profit for the same period was HKD 5,855,695, representing a gross margin of approximately 16.7%[3]. - The net profit attributable to the company's owners was HKD 1,760,747, down from HKD 1,830,412 in the previous year, indicating a decline of 3.8%[8]. - The total comprehensive income for the period was HKD 3,879,660, compared to HKD 3,396,983 in the prior year, reflecting an increase of 14.2%[10]. - Basic earnings per share for the period were HKD 0.3271, a decrease from HKD 0.3400 in the same period last year[11]. - The group reported a total segment profit of HKD 3,856,283 thousand for the six months ended September 30, 2024, compared to HKD 3,673,888 thousand for the same period in 2023, reflecting a growth of approximately 5%[34][37]. - The attributable profit declined by 3.8% to HKD 1,760,747,000, with basic earnings per share at HKD 0.327, also down by 3.8%[63]. - Free cash flow was HKD 2,222,093,000, down from HKD 4,974,242,000 year-on-year[101]. Assets and Liabilities - Non-current assets increased to HKD 106,183,466 as of September 30, 2024, up from HKD 103,450,545 as of March 31, 2024[14]. - Current assets totaled HKD 47,290,062, an increase from HKD 45,247,179 in the previous reporting period[14]. - The company's total assets less current liabilities amounted to HKD 105,671,479, compared to HKD 98,315,467 in the prior year[18]. - The total equity attributable to the company's owners was HKD 57,123,321, an increase from HKD 53,927,655 as of March 31, 2024[20]. - The group has total bank loans and other loans amounting to HKD 46,397,031,000 as of September 30, 2024[107]. - The group has pledged bank deposits of HKD 232,854,000, and properties, plants, and equipment valued at HKD 8,935,040,000 as of September 30, 2024[111]. Revenue Streams - The group's revenue decreased by 2.6% year-on-year to HKD 35,105,202,000[63]. - The segment revenue from natural gas sales was HKD 19,641,836 thousand for the six months ended September 30, 2024, down from HKD 21,718,489 thousand for the same period in 2023, a decrease of approximately 9.6%[34][37]. - The sales revenue from liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) amounted to HKD 9,557,976,000, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.5%[85]. - The group achieved LPG sales of 201,800 tons, which is a 1.9% increase year-on-year[85]. - The sales volume of urban and rural pipeline gas was 9.33 billion cubic meters, an increase of 1.4% compared to the same period last year[80]. Expenses and Financial Management - The interest and other income and losses for the six months ended September 30, 2024, amounted to HKD 71,135 thousand, while the financial expenses were HKD 407,825 thousand[33]. - The group’s income tax expense for the six months ended September 30, 2024, was HKD 647,264 thousand, an increase from HKD 412,023 thousand for the same period in 2023, representing a rise of approximately 57%[39][41]. - Financial expenses decreased by 16.7% to approximately HKD 828,740,000 compared to the previous year[96]. Dividends and Shareholder Information - The board declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.15 per share for the six months ended September 30, 2024, consistent with the previous year's dividend[50]. - The interim dividend will be paid in cash, with shareholders having the option to receive new shares under a scrip dividend scheme[50]. - The expected cash interim dividend checks and shares under the scrip dividend scheme will be mailed around February 18, 2025[51]. Operational Strategies and Market Position - The group is actively exploring innovative business growth paths and enhancing operational efficiency through digital transformation[60]. - The group emphasizes safety operations and aims to enhance safety management as a core objective[61]. - The group is focusing on expanding value-added services and kitchen renovation business in response to market opportunities[61]. - The group plans to actively expand its market presence in the real estate sector, with new user installation business expected to stabilize[117]. - The group aims to enhance its operational strategy by focusing on customer orientation and value creation, while exploring new business areas such as energy storage and biomass energy[116]. Market Conditions and Economic Outlook - The Chinese government has introduced significant policies to stabilize the economy, which is expected to positively impact the natural gas industry[56]. - The group anticipates that the Chinese government will introduce more concrete and effective stimulus policies to stabilize the economy, positively impacting the capital market[115]. - The global LNG prices have stabilized at low levels, providing a favorable environment for the group's operations[55].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for China Gas Holdings Limited (00384.HK) [1]. Core Views - China Gas is positioned as a leading urban gas provider in China, with a strong market share and potential for profit recovery. The company has diversified its operations to include liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and value-added services, transitioning into a comprehensive energy service provider [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the implementation of natural gas pricing policies across various regions, which will enhance its profitability. The gross margin is projected to recover, with a forecasted increase in net profit for FY2025 to FY2027 [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Established in 2002 and listed in the same year, China Gas has developed a robust urban gas distribution network, accounting for approximately 5.9% of national consumption with a sales volume of 23.5 billion cubic meters in FY2023/24 [1][3]. - The company has shifted from being solely a gas supplier to a comprehensive energy service provider, integrating various energy solutions including LPG, LNG, and renewable energy services [3][4]. 2. Energy Business - The report highlights a recovery in urban gas pricing, with the company’s gross margin increasing by 0.08 CNY per cubic meter in FY2023/24. The company has signed long-term contracts for LNG at lower prices, enhancing its cost advantages [2][4]. - The company has improved its customer penetration rate to 71% among existing clients, with a total of 54.4 million urban users as of FY2023/24 [2]. 3. Value-Added Services and Comprehensive Energy Solutions - China Gas is actively expanding its value-added services, including the "Yipinhui" initiative, which aims to leverage its existing customer base for new revenue streams. The company has signed contracts with over 50 external gas clients [3]. - The company is also focusing on green energy solutions, including distributed solar energy projects and carbon management services, positioning itself as a green city operator [3]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The report forecasts net profits of 4.017 billion HKD, 4.464 billion HKD, and 4.914 billion HKD for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 26%, 11%, and 10% [4]. - The price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 8.73, 7.86, and 7.14 for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation for potential investors [4].

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained with a target price of HKD 8.75, implying a 25% upside from the current price [2] Core Views - The company's profitability structure is steadily improving, with gas sales contribution increasing to 48.7% while connection revenue contribution declines to 10.8% [2] - Gas sales volume grew 6.2% YoY to 41.7 billion cubic meters, with average gross margin per cubic meter increasing 19% to RMB 0.50 [2] - Value-added services revenue grew 5.8% to HKD 3.65 billion, with operating profit up 5.7% to HKD 1.58 billion [2] - Comprehensive energy business achieved breakthrough with total signed installed capacity reaching 221.6MWH, including 112.7MWH of commercial and industrial user-side energy storage [2] Financial Performance - FY23/24 revenue declined 11.5% YoY to HKD 81.41 billion, mainly due to weak real estate market and lower LPG sales [2] - Gross margin improved 0.8 percentage points to 13.9%, driven by better gas sales margins [2] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders remained flat at HKD 4.29 billion after excluding one-off items [2] - Operating cash flow reached record high of HKD 11.34 billion, with free cash flow increasing HKD 1.77 billion to HKD 4.29 billion [2] Future Outlook - Gas sales gross margin expected to further improve as more cities implement upstream-downstream price linkage mechanisms [2] - Revenue forecast at HKD 85.9/89.2/92.2 billion for FY24/25/26/27, with net profit of HKD 4.3/4.8/5.0 billion [2] - Target price of HKD 8.75 implies 11x FY24/25 PE, maintaining Buy rating [2] Industry Analysis - The company benefits from natural gas being a key transitional energy in China's "dual carbon" goals [2] - As one of China's largest gas companies, it is well-positioned to capture incremental gas sales growth [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Gas [4][5]. Core Views - China Gas reported a significant improvement in cash flow, with operating cash flow reaching HKD 11.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%. The company proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.35 per share, resulting in an annual dividend of HKD 0.5 per share, maintaining a dividend yield of 7% based on the closing price on June 24 [4][5]. - Despite a decline in net profit, the company's historical cash flow supports high dividends. The net profit decreased primarily due to a 28% drop in new user connections, a 3.4% depreciation of the RMB, and increased financial costs from foreign debt. However, the company's gas sales volume showed positive growth, with a 6.2% year-on-year increase [4][5]. - The retail gas sales volume recovered, with a gross margin improvement. The company sold 41.7 billion cubic meters of gas, with a retail gas gross margin of HKD 0.5 per cubic meter, an increase of HKD 0.08 year-on-year [4][5]. - The connection business faced challenges, but its impact on overall performance is expected to be limited. The number of new residential users decreased by 28%, but the company anticipates a stabilization in this area moving forward [4][5]. - Value-added services and integrated energy solutions are seen as new growth drivers for the company. The value-added business revenue reached HKD 3.655 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2023/24, China Gas achieved operating revenue of HKD 81.41 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 3.185 billion, down 25.82% [4][5]. - The company’s operating profit for the same period was HKD 11.304 billion, with a gross profit margin improvement noted in gas sales [4][5]. Future Projections - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2024/25 and 2025/26 to HKD 4.495 billion and HKD 5.643 billion, respectively, down from previous estimates. The EPS estimates for the same periods are revised to HKD 0.83 and HKD 1.04 [4][5].