行 业 及 产 业 公用事业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 2026 年 03 月 16 日 十五五新型能源体系建设出台 欧亚 气价小幅回落 看好 ——申万公用环保周报(26/03/09~26/03/13) 本期投资提示： 风险提示：天然气价格高波动风险、国内顺价机制落地情况不及预期风险、新能源发电业务环境价值兑 现风险、电价下降风险。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 - ⚫ 电力：十五五规划纲要新型能源体系建设，风光水核多能并举。新华社受权于 13 日全文播发《中华人 民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要》。关于新型能源体系建设，十五五加力建设新型 能源基础设施。推进非化石能源安全可靠有序替代化石能源，坚持风光水核等多能 ...

行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 行 业 及 产 业 公用事业 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 2026 年 03 月 16 日 十五五新型能源体系建设出台 欧亚 气价小幅回落 看好 ——申万公用环保周报(26/03/09~26/03/13) 本期投资提示： 风险提示：天然气价格高波动风险、国内顺价机制落地情况不及预期风险、新能源发电业务环境价值兑 现风险、电价下降风险。 ⚫ 电力：十五五规划纲要新型能源体系建设，风光水核多能并举。新华社受权于 13 日全文播发《中华人 民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要》。关于新型能源体系建设，十五五加力建设新型 能源基础设施。推进非化石能源安全可靠有序替代化石能源，坚持风光水核等多能并举，实施非化石能 源十年倍增行动。对于核电、海 ...

3月，2026年政府工作报告（以下简称"报告"）为综合能源服务行业的机遇划出了重点。 从新型电力系统构建，到市场化机制优化、绿色低碳转型推进，再到数字化技术赋能等关键领域，报告 释放出一系列涵盖"十五五"时期综合能源服务产业发展的政策信号。 这一顶层设计不仅将综合能源服务的规模化实践推至能源转型的核心位置，也让深耕综合能源业务的中 国燃气迎来更加广阔的成长空间。 政策加速综合能源服务发展，未来机遇在哪里？ 报告立足绿色低碳发展核心目标，从多个维度形成政策合力，既破解了行业发展的核心痛点，又开拓了 全新的价值空间，构建起支撑行业高质量发展的完整政策体系，推动综合能源服务行业加速迈入规模化 落地的新阶段。 其一，新型电力系统建设与加速零碳建设，为综合能源服务行业开拓了蓝海市场。报告明确"着力构建 新型电力系统，加快智能电网建设并发展新型储能"，这也是新型储能连续第三年被写入政府工作报 告。 综合能源服务商在长期运营中积累的海量能源数据成为核心资产，可依托这些数据搭建专业化能源数据 平台，为客户提供数据服务，持续拓展业务边界。 同时，报告强调扩大绿电应用、优化电力辅助服务市场体系，进一步释放了用户侧储能的市场价值， ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it provides various investment recommendations for specific sectors and companies within the energy and environmental sectors. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a dual control system for carbon emissions, focusing on low-carbon development and the promotion of non-fossil energy sources [5][8][9]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a sharp increase in natural gas prices, particularly affecting Europe and Asia, with significant price fluctuations observed [13][22][36]. - The report outlines several investment opportunities across different energy sectors, including thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, green energy, and natural gas [11][12][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - The "14th Five-Year Plan" introduces a dual control system for carbon emissions, aiming for carbon peak and neutrality, and emphasizes the development of non-fossil energy sources [5][8][9]. - Key tasks include accelerating the transition to green energy, promoting low-carbon technologies, and enhancing resource management [10]. 2. Gas Sector - The Middle East tensions have caused a rapid increase in gas prices, with significant weekly changes noted in various markets, such as a 116.35% increase in Northeast Asia LNG prices [13][22][36]. - The report highlights that the current geopolitical situation has led to a more abrupt price increase compared to previous cycles, with a potential for shorter duration [36]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Thermal Power: Recommended companies include Datang Power A+H and JianTou Energy, particularly in regions with high computational demand [11][12]. - Hydropower: Companies like Guotou Power and Changjiang Power are favored due to expected improvements in financial metrics [12]. - Nuclear Power: Focus on China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power, with a projected increase in approved units [12]. - Green Energy: Companies such as Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power are recommended as new energy market rules enhance project stability [12]. - Natural Gas: Companies like Kunlun Energy and China Gas are highlighted for their potential in a favorable pricing environment [12][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the public utility and environmental sectors, particularly in electricity and natural gas [3][46]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a dual control system for carbon emissions, focusing on low-carbon development and the promotion of non-fossil energy sources [10][11]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a sharp increase in natural gas prices in Europe and Asia, with significant price fluctuations observed [15][24]. - The report identifies several investment opportunities across various energy sectors, including thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, green energy, and natural gas [13][14][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: Implementation of Dual Control on Carbon Emissions - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines a comprehensive approach to achieving carbon neutrality, emphasizing the need for a robust incentive mechanism and specific tasks related to energy, industry, and lifestyle [10][11][12]. - Key tasks include accelerating the transition to renewable energy, promoting low-carbon technologies, and enhancing resource management [12]. 2. Natural Gas: Impact of Middle Eastern Conflicts on Prices - Natural gas prices have surged due to geopolitical tensions, with the Henry Hub spot price at $2.90/mmBtu and European prices experiencing significant increases [15][24]. - The report notes that the current supply constraints, particularly from Qatar, have led to a more pronounced price increase compared to previous cycles [42][44]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on LNG traders and unconventional gas resource companies that benefit from high price environments [44]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The public utility, electricity, and gas sectors have outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, while the environmental sector has lagged [46]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent regulatory updates include the implementation of new standards for ecological industrial parks and competitive pricing mechanisms for renewable energy projects in Zhejiang [56]. - Notable company announcements include significant investments in waste-to-energy projects and renewable energy initiatives [57].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes the transformative impact of AI on Human Resource Shared Services Centers (HRSSC), shifting their role from transactional processing to enhancing employee experience and enabling smart decision-making [12][59] - It highlights the necessity for organizations to integrate AI into HR practices to improve efficiency and meet the evolving expectations of a new generation of employees [12][13] Summary by Sections 1. Embracing AI in Enterprises - Enterprises show a high enthusiasm for AI technology, but this enthusiasm has not yet translated into deep understanding or practical capabilities within HR teams [16][21] - The current state of HR teams' AI capabilities is primarily at the awareness level (50.89%), with a smaller percentage moving towards regular application (39.29%) [19][46] 2. Restructuring HRSSC under AI - The construction rate of HRSSCs is at 76.79%, with 76.74% of these centers in the 2.0-3.0 maturity stage, indicating significant growth driven by external pressures and internal demands [71] - AI is reshaping the responsibilities and collaboration models within the three-pillar HR structure (COE, HRBP, SSC), pushing SSC personnel towards a dual focus on technical application and business understanding [53][57] 3. Enhancing Employee Experience through AI - The report categorizes AI applications in HRSSC into various scenarios, emphasizing the importance of planning and readiness for AI integration [37][60] - It identifies challenges faced in AI application and suggests solutions to enhance employee self-service and overall experience [47][60] 4. Wisdom Decision-Making - The report explores the concept of "wisdom decision-making," detailing the steps necessary for organizations to transition from intelligent operations to strategic decision-making [49][60] - It outlines the foundational elements required for effective decision-making in the context of AI integration [49][60] 5. Expert Insights and Case Studies - The report includes insights from various experts and case studies from companies like Greentown China, Roche, and Ping An Technology, showcasing practical applications of AI in HR [45][46] - These case studies illustrate how different organizations are implementing AI strategies to enhance HR functions and employee engagement [45][46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 9.60, based on a 15x FY26 forecast PE, which is above the historical average of 10x [5][4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a stable recovery in core business profitability and long-term growth momentum from new business initiatives, supported by strong free cash flow for stable dividends [1][4]. - The management highlighted that the impact of gas price fluctuations is manageable due to sufficient hedging and cost transmission capabilities [2]. - The implementation of the pricing mechanism is accelerating, providing a clear path for margin recovery, with an annual margin guidance of HKD 0.55 per cubic meter expected to be achieved [2]. - The company is optimizing its gas sales structure and steadily advancing its connection business, which is expected to improve the profitability structure [3]. - New business developments in integrated energy are seen as a second growth curve, with projects in biomass energy and other value-added services contributing to stable profit supplements [3]. Summary by Sections Pricing Mechanism and Cost Management - The company’s core gas supply comes from major state-owned oil companies, with a slight reliance on spot market LNG purchases, which is expected to mitigate the impact of geopolitical conflicts on gas prices [2]. - The pricing mechanism's deepening is expected to provide rigid policy support for margin stabilization, allowing the company to maintain profitability even amid upstream price fluctuations [2]. Sales Volume and Business Development - As of January 2026, retail gas sales volume showed a slight year-on-year decline, consistent with national trends, but residential gas sales are expected to grow modestly, while commercial gas demand faces short-term pressure [3]. - The connection business is progressing steadily, with the company on track to meet its annual targets [3]. New Business Initiatives - The company is actively expanding into biomass energy, with projects already launched in Anhui, supplying energy to industrial clients and supporting low-carbon production [3]. - The integrated energy business, focusing on storage, green electricity, and biomass energy, aligns with carbon reduction trends and is anticipated to become a core profit growth driver from FY26 to FY28 [3]. Financial Projections - The company’s projected net profit for FY26-28 is HKD 34.91 billion, HKD 37.36 billion, and HKD 39.49 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 0.64, HKD 0.69, and HKD 0.72 [4][8].

作为我国最大的跨区域综合能源供应及服务企业之一，中国燃气始终致力于保障国计民生、推动行业进 步。在此，我谨结合企业实践，提出如下建议：一是健全促进可持续发展的公用事业价格机制。在保障 民生基本需求的前提下，逐步完善更富弹性、更可持续的城市燃气等公用事业动态价格调整机制，引导 企业持续投入储气调峰、管网更新等长效基础设施建设。二是推动AI技术与能源管理深度融合。建议 国家加大政策引导，鼓励能源企业深化人工智能、大数据等技术在管网运维、负荷预测、客户服务及风 险预警等全场景的应用。三是支持先进能源技术与管理模式稳步出海。建议国家层面搭建平台，支持中 国企业"抱团出海"。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the power sector, particularly in regions benefiting from rapid computational development [1]. Core Insights - The power supply in China is abundant, with a projected installed capacity of 389,134 MW by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.1%. The share of coal power is 40%, while solar and wind power capacities have increased by 35.4% and 22.9% respectively, leading to a significant rise in the proportion of clean energy [4][5]. - The report highlights the importance of coal power as a stabilizing force in the energy system, providing reliable support for high-energy-consuming digital infrastructure, which is crucial for the development of AI and the digital economy [9]. - Natural gas prices are expected to rise in 2025, with the US Henry Hub spot price projected at $3.51 per million British thermal units, a 59.7% increase year-on-year. This increase is attributed to geopolitical factors, extreme weather, and changes in supply-demand fundamentals [35][36]. - The report emphasizes the potential for green hydrogen projects in Yunnan, with subsidies of up to 13 RMB/kg, which could accelerate the development of the hydrogen and methanol industry [1]. Summary by Sections Power Sector - The installed capacity in China is projected to reach 389,134 MW by the end of 2025, with a significant increase in clean energy sources [4]. - The contribution of coal power to electricity generation remains substantial, accounting for 65% of the total output despite its 40% share in installed capacity [4][5]. - The "East Data West Calculation" project aims to enhance the computational network across various regions, leading to higher electricity consumption growth in provinces like Guizhou and Zhejiang [6][9]. Natural Gas - Global natural gas prices are expected to rise, with the US Henry Hub price forecasted to increase significantly due to various geopolitical and supply-demand factors [35][36]. - The report notes that the LNG supply in Northeast Asia is currently stable, but geopolitical tensions could lead to price volatility [30][36]. Environmental and Renewable Energy - The report discusses the potential for green hydrogen development in Yunnan, supported by government subsidies, which could enhance the economic viability of hydrogen projects [1]. - The report recommends several companies in the renewable energy sector, including new energy operators and integrated gas traders, as potential investment opportunities [1][36].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年2月28日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國燃氣控股有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年3月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00384 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 9,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.01 | HKD | | 90,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 9,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.01 | HKD | | 90,000,000 | 本月底法定/註冊 ...