海 外 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 公用事业 ＃investSuggestion＃ 买入（维持） 跟 踪 报 告 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------|------------|-------| | ＃ 市场数据 investSuggestionChange 日期 \n＃ | 2024.12.06 | | | 收盘价（港元） | 6.45 | | | 总股本 ( 百万股 ) 总市值（亿港元） | 5,437 351 | | | 净资产 ( 亿港元 ) | 571 | | | 总资产 ( 亿港元 ) | 1,535 | | | 每股净资产 ( 港元 ) | 10.51 | | | 数据来源： Wind | | | ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ 中国燃气(00384.HK)2023-24 财年 中期业绩点评：现金流改善，毛差 修复可期-231202 中国燃气（00384.HK）23 财年业绩 点评：气量稳定增长，毛差修复曙 光初现-20230628 中国燃气（00384.HK）23 ...

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 公用事业 2024 年 12 月 03 日 中国燃气 (00384) ——工业承压销气小幅增长 毛差延续修复趋势 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | --- | --- | |----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 12 月 03 日 | | 收盘价（港币） | 6.34 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 7072.13 | | 52 周最高 / 最低（港币） | 8.43/5.78 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 344.73 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 5,437.44 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0808 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -12% 38% 88% 12/0401/0402/0403/0404/0405/0406/0407/0408/0409/0410/0411/04 HSCEI 中国燃气 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@ ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·公用事业Ⅱ(HS) 中国燃气（00384.HK） 2025FY 中报点评：顺价稳步推进，非经影响 下利润承压 2024 年 12 月 03 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025E | FY2026E | FY2027E | | 营业总收入（百万港元） | 92423 | 81863 | 88805 | 92099 | 95409 | | 同比 (%) | 4.31 | (11.43) | 8.48 | 3.71 | 3.59 | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | 4293 | 3185 | 3955 | 4437 | 4866 | | 同比 (%) | (43.96) | (25.82) | 24.19 | 12.16 | 9.67 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（港元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Neutral** rating for China Gas (384 HK) with a target price of HKD 5.92, representing a potential downside of 8.1% from the current price of HKD 6.44 [1][3] Core Views - China Gas' 1H FY25 earnings declined by 3.8% YoY to HKD 1.76 billion, missing market expectations by approximately 15% due to losses from joint ventures, higher taxes, and increased minority interests [1] - Retail gas sales volume grew by only 1.9% YoY in 1H FY25, dragged down by weak industrial gas demand, which grew by only 1% YoY [2] - The company's gas sales gross margin improved by RMB 0.02 per cubic meter to RMB 0.59, driven by residential gas price adjustments in 32 cities [2] - New residential connections declined by 14% YoY in 1H FY25 due to reduced rural coal-to-gas conversions and weak property sales [2] - The report downgrades FY25-27 earnings forecasts by 13-19%, reflecting slower industrial gas growth and reduced new residential connections [2] - Management expects the spin-off of value-added services to the US market to provide a second growth driver, but the timeline remains unclear [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is expected to decline by 6.8% YoY in FY25 to HKD 75.9 billion, followed by a gradual recovery with 2.7% and 2.9% growth in FY26 and FY27, respectively [4] - Net profit is forecasted to grow by 18.8% YoY in FY25 to HKD 3.78 billion, with further growth of 6.7% and 5.7% in FY26 and FY27, respectively [4] - EPS is expected to decline by 4.6% YoY in FY25 to HKD 0.70, with subsequent growth of 6.7% and 5.7% in FY26 and FY27, respectively [4] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to increase from 8.8x in FY24 to 9.3x in FY25, before declining to 8.7x and 8.2x in FY26 and FY27, respectively [4] - Dividend yield is expected to remain stable at 5.4% from FY25 to FY27, with a maintained dividend payout of HKD 0.35 per share [4] Operational Data and Forecasts - Total retail gas sales volume is expected to grow by 2.2% YoY in FY25 to 24.04 billion cubic meters, with growth slowing to 2.5% and 2.7% in FY26 and FY27, respectively [8] - Residential gas sales volume is forecasted to grow by 0.5% YoY in FY25 to 8.97 billion cubic meters, while industrial gas sales are expected to decline by 3.3% YoY to 14.65 billion cubic meters [8] - The gas sales gross margin is projected to remain stable at RMB 0.53 per cubic meter from FY25 to FY27 [8] - New residential connections are expected to decline by 5.2% YoY in FY25 to 1.27 million households, with further declines of 4.6% and 7.6% in FY26 and FY27, respectively [8] Valuation and Peer Comparison - China Gas is trading at a discount to its peers, with a FY25E P/E of 9.3x compared to the sector average of 12.0x [9] - The company's FY25E P/B ratio of 0.63x is below the sector average of 1.0x [9] - Among peers, China Gas has the lowest potential upside of -8.1%, compared to 27.4% for Kunlun Energy (135 HK) and 24.6% for ENN Energy (2688 HK) [13]

香 港 交 易 及 結 算 所 有 限 公 司 及 香 港 聯 合 交 易 所 有 限 公 司 對 本 公 告 之 內 容 概 不 負 責，對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示 概 不 就 因 本 公 告 全 部 或 任 何 部 份 內 容 而 產 生 或 因 倚 賴 該 等 內 容 而 引 致 之 任 何 損 失 承 擔 任 何 責 任。 CHINA GAS HOLDINGS LIMITED 中國燃氣控股有限公司 * （於百慕達註冊成立之有限公司） （股 份 代 號：384） 中期業績 截至二零二四年九月三十日止六個月 中國燃氣控股有限公司*（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」或「董 事」）宣 佈，本 公 司 及 其 附 屬 公 司（「本集團」）截 至 二 零 二 四 年 九 月 三 十 日 止 六 個 月 之 簡 明 綜 合 財 務 業 績，連 同 截 至 二 零 二 三 年 九 月 三 十 日 止 六 個 月 之 比 較 數 字 如 下： 簡明綜合損益及其他全面收入報表 截至二零二四年九月三十日止六個月 截至下列日期止六個月 | --- | --- | |- ...

证券研究报告·海外公司深度·公用事业Ⅱ(HS) 中国燃气（00384.HK） 全国城市燃气龙头，居民气占比奠定高顺价 弹性，盈利有望触底反弹 2024 年 11 月 22 日 买入（首次） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025E | FY2026E | FY2027E | | 营业总收入（百万港元） | 92423 | 81863 | 92308 | 96626 | 101265 | | 同比 (%) | 4.31 | (11.43) | 12.76 | 4.68 | 4.80 | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | 4293 | 3185 | 4017 | 4464 | 4914 | | 同比 (%) | (43.96) | (25.82) | 26.12 | 11.12 | 10.09 | | EPS- 最新 ...

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained with a target price of HKD 8.75, implying a 25% upside from the current price [2] Core Views - The company's profitability structure is steadily improving, with gas sales contribution increasing to 48.7% while connection revenue contribution declines to 10.8% [2] - Gas sales volume grew 6.2% YoY to 41.7 billion cubic meters, with average gross margin per cubic meter increasing 19% to RMB 0.50 [2] - Value-added services revenue grew 5.8% to HKD 3.65 billion, with operating profit up 5.7% to HKD 1.58 billion [2] - Comprehensive energy business achieved breakthrough with total signed installed capacity reaching 221.6MWH, including 112.7MWH of commercial and industrial user-side energy storage [2] Financial Performance - FY23/24 revenue declined 11.5% YoY to HKD 81.41 billion, mainly due to weak real estate market and lower LPG sales [2] - Gross margin improved 0.8 percentage points to 13.9%, driven by better gas sales margins [2] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders remained flat at HKD 4.29 billion after excluding one-off items [2] - Operating cash flow reached record high of HKD 11.34 billion, with free cash flow increasing HKD 1.77 billion to HKD 4.29 billion [2] Future Outlook - Gas sales gross margin expected to further improve as more cities implement upstream-downstream price linkage mechanisms [2] - Revenue forecast at HKD 85.9/89.2/92.2 billion for FY24/25/26/27, with net profit of HKD 4.3/4.8/5.0 billion [2] - Target price of HKD 8.75 implies 11x FY24/25 PE, maintaining Buy rating [2] Industry Analysis - The company benefits from natural gas being a key transitional energy in China's "dual carbon" goals [2] - As one of China's largest gas companies, it is well-positioned to capture incremental gas sales growth [2]

公用事业 上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 06 月 25 日 中国燃气 (00384) ——现金流大幅改善 高分红高股息提升投资价值 报告原因:有业绩公布需要点评 | 市场数据: | 2024 年 06 月 24 日 | |------------------------|---------------------------------| | 收盘价(港币) | 7.14 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 6441.16 | | 52 周最高/最低(港币) | 9.60/6.35 | | H 股市值(亿港币) | 388.1 | | 流通 H 股(百万股) | 5435.6 | | 汇率(人民币/港币) | 1.0960 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势: -22% -2% 19% 06/2607/2608/2609/2610/2611/2612/2601/2602/2603/2604/2605/26 HSCEI 中国燃气 资料来源:Bloomberg | 证券分析师 | |------------------------| | 王璐 A0230516080007 | | wanglu@s ...

自由现金流扩大,高股息特征显著 | | | | | |---------------------------------------|------------|-----------------|------| | 华泰研究 年报点评 | | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | 2024 年 6 月 25 日│中国香港 | 燃气及分销 | 目标价(港币 ): | 8.47 | FY24 核心溢利同比-4.3%,每股派息 50 港仙对应股息率 7% 中国燃气发布 FY24 业绩(23 年 4 月至 24 年 3 月),FY24 实现收入 814 亿港币(同比-11.5%),股东应占核心溢利 39.7 亿港币(同比-4.3%),低 于华泰预测(46.8 亿港币);公司经营利润率同比回升,但减值与汇兑损失 影响拖累盈利表现;公司自由现金流同比+70%,应收账款与资本开支下降。 我们预计中国燃气 FY25-27 盈利预测为 41.9/46.4/51.8 亿港币(前值 55.0/66.0/-亿港币),EPS 为 0.77/0.85/0.95 港币,其中零售气量增速、毛 差与燃气接驳下调。给予公司目标价 8.47 港币 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 燃气 2024 年 6 月 25 日 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 7.14 港元 6.82↓ -4.5% 中国燃气 (384 HK) 盈利稳定度仍有待提高,维持中性 2024 财年核心盈利再度倒退。中燃 2024 财年(3 月结)核心盈利同比下 跌 4.3%,低于我们预期约 10%。当中较大的差异为:1)期内民用零售气 的增量主要来自合营公司层面(下半年同比增长近 5%),是毛利低于我 们预期的主因;2)财务成本因公司非人民币贷款的成本上升而高于预期 约11%。公司去年度零售气量同比增2.2%,毛差为每方气0.5元(人民币, 下同),与预期相若。居民新增接驳量虽然同比下跌 28%至 166 万户(高 于我们预期约 22 万户),但经营利润率仍同比下跌 1.3 个百分点。虽然去 年度盈利水平偏弱,公司自由现金流进一步提升至 43 亿港元(同比 +70%)。另外,尽管核心盈利同比倒退,公司维持末期分红 0.40 港元。 预期售气毛差进一步改善,新增接驳量仍有待止跌。公司预期 2025 财年 在采购成本优化及民用气顺价比例提升下,毛差将进一步改善。我们估计 在采购成本同比下降 1 分及居 ...