机构：交银国际 研究员：郑民康/文昊 下半财年受暖冬影响时间较长，拖累期内盈利水平。公司将于6 月27 日公布2025 财年全年业绩，我们 预期公司全年核心利润同比降6.4%至37 亿港元，受下半财年内暖冬影响，公司有4 至5 个月售气量偏弱 （较12 月年结的同业受影响时间更长），我们估计公司全年零售气量同比微增约1%（下半年仅同比升 0.5% ） ， 低于公司指引的2% 。其中， 居民/ 工商业售气同比升2%/0.5%，售气毛差应可达公司指引的 每立方米0.53 元人民币。另外，预计期内居民新增接驳同比下降约21%至125 万户。我们预期末期分红 维持在0.35 港元（全年派息0.5 港元）。同时我们预计公司在合营公司的应收款回收或持续取得进展， 自由现金流有望维持在46 亿港元的水平。 2026 财年预期营运端平稳，期待分拆增值业务上市有所突破。展望2026 财年，我们认为零售气量同比 增长有望回升至2%，售气毛差在居民用气持续顺价后提升至每方0.54 元人民币的水平。至于居民新增 接驳，目前我们保守预期同比轻微下降至123 万户，若公司2025 财年下半年新增接驳量超预期，或在手 合同能显现复苏信号， ...

据悉，目标公司为该公司全资附属公司，主要从事电力销售及清洁能源开发、咨询服务及投资。目标公 司以国家级规模营运，专注于拓展其于能源行业的业务及推动清洁能源及低碳解决方案。于完成后，该 集团于目标公司的股权将因增资而由100%摊薄至77%。 智通财经APP讯，中国燃气(00384)公布，于2025年6月20日，目标公司中燃宏明电力销售有限公司与中 燃燃气(各为该公司全资附属公司)、中国双碳、辉煌联智与美亚订立增资协议，据此，中国双碳、辉煌 联智及美亚同意认购目标公司的新发行注册资本，占完成后目标公司合共23%的股权，总代价为人民币 2.16亿元。 公告称，增资所得款项主要用于目标公司电力及新能源分部的持续业务发展。公司认为，该集团若干核 心管理成员作出增资，表明彼等对目标公司所从事的电力及新能源分部的长期承诺，亦使彼等的利益与 公司于该业务分部的长期战略目标挂鈎，确保于实现集团为该业务分部建立全面框架的愿景方向及承诺 一致。增资亦将为业务分部的进一步发展提供资金，为进行中项目、研发及能源服务产品扩展给予支 持，确保长期增长及可持续发展。公司亦认为，对集团电力及新能源分部进行业务整合至关重要。通过 建立全面能源服 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral with a target price of HKD 6.70, indicating a potential downside of 11.4% from the current price of HKD 7.56 [4][17]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a decline in profit for the fiscal year 2025 due to the impact of a warm winter, with a focus on the certainty of profit improvement in the following year [2][7]. - The forecast for fiscal year 2025 has been adjusted downwards by approximately 2% to reflect the impact of the warm winter on gas sales volume, with an expected core profit decrease of 6.4% to HKD 3.712 billion [7][8]. - The company anticipates a slight increase in retail gas volume of about 1% year-on-year, which is below the company's guidance of 2% [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to decline from HKD 91,988 million in 2023 to HKD 75,183 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7.6% [3][18]. - Net profit is expected to decrease from HKD 4,293 million in 2023 to HKD 3,712 million in 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 6.4% [3][18]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to drop from HKD 0.76 in 2023 to HKD 0.68 in 2025, indicating a decrease of 6.4% [3][18]. Operational Insights - The company expects retail gas volume to grow by 2% year-on-year in fiscal year 2026, with a projected gas margin increase to RMB 0.54 per cubic meter [7][10]. - The number of new residential connections is anticipated to decline by approximately 21% to 1.25 million households in fiscal year 2025 [7][9]. - The company maintains a dividend of HKD 0.35 for the final period, with an annual payout of HKD 0.50 [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 11.1 times for fiscal year 2025, with an expected price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.75 [3][18]. - The company has a dividend yield of 6.6%, which is considered defensive [7][8]. - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 6.70 from the previous HKD 5.92, reflecting a more favorable valuation compared to other gas companies [7][8].

刘显达指，中东局势不稳虽会拖累市场气氛，但同时带来低吸港股的机会，而且中国当前处于通缩，油 价上升带来的通胀对中国未必是坏事。 他指，7至8月关注企业业绩报告，第四季及明年焦点则是"十五五"规划，因投资中资股最看重国策，预 期当局会以新经济去拉动经济增长，当中医疗养老、科技研发、教育和文化旅游行业料可受惠国策。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗上月调高恒指目标价，花旗集团中国股票策略师刘显达认为，中东局势对港股 影响不大，加上关税发展较之前明朗，全球主要央行减息亦降低资金成本，预期明年港股盈利增长可能 较今年更佳，因此对港股看法依然正面，并不排除未来有进一步调高目标价的可能。 花旗早前调高恒指今年底目标价至25,000点，若中美关系今年稍后继续有改善，2026年上半年目标为 26,000点。 花旗予消费股增持评级，因受海外贸易关税上涨影响较小，而且政府刺激措施和补贴有望提振本地消 费。对于行业内卷问题，刘显达指，选股时要留意内卷因素，建议选择较大型、实力较强，行内竞争较 少的公司。 花旗最新首选股名单为腾讯 (00700) 、华能国电 (00902) 、携程(TCOM.US)、比亚迪 (01211) 、友邦 (012 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for various companies in the energy sector, including hydroelectric, nuclear, and gas companies, indicating a positive outlook for their growth potential [3][41][44]. Core Insights - The report highlights the successful commissioning of the Hami-Chongqing ±800 kV UHVDC transmission project, which significantly enhances power supply capabilities in Chongqing, with over 360 billion kWh of electricity expected to be delivered annually, of which more than 50% will be clean energy [3]. - European gas prices have seen a slight increase due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with the TTF spot price rising by 4.88% to €37.63/MWh as of June 13 [7][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the Hami-Chongqing project in improving the efficiency of green energy resource consumption and the long-term enhancement of Xinjiang's electricity export capacity [3]. Summary by Sections Natural Gas - Geopolitical conflicts have led to a tightening of supply in Eurasia, causing a rebound in gas prices. As of June 13, the Henry Hub spot price was $2.65/mmBtu, while the TTF spot price increased by 4.88% [7][11]. - The report notes that the LNG national ex-factory price was 4406 yuan/ton, reflecting a weekly decrease of 0.38% [7][25]. - The report suggests focusing on integrated gas trading companies and city gas companies, recommending firms like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy [27]. Weekly Market Review - The public utility, electricity, and gas sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index during the week of June 9 to June 13, while the environmental protection and power equipment sectors lagged [30]. Company and Industry Dynamics - In the first five months of the year, China imported 230 million tons of crude oil, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, while natural gas imports decreased by 9.5% to 49.05 million tons [35]. - The report highlights the importance of enhancing the "power acquisition" service level to create a modern business environment for electricity [35][37]. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the public utility sector, with several companies rated as "Buy," indicating strong growth potential [41][44].

本周大事件 本周化工市场综述 本周基础化工指数下跌 0.01%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.24%。标的方面，本周康宽、硝化棉、碳酸锶、溴素、甲 醇、H 酸相关标的表现较强。基础化工行业，建议关注以下事件，一是产品涨价继续，其中辉隆公布 97%的氯虫苯甲 酰胺预售价格为 32 万元/吨，泰禾将百菌清价格上调至 3 万元/吨；二是中国平煤神马集团 10 万吨/年艾斯安装置投 产，己二腈工艺之争或存在变数；三是利安德巴赛尔公司（LYB）宣布，已与 AEQUITA 达成协议并展开独家谈判，出 售其位于欧洲的部分烯烃和聚烯烃资产及相关业务；四是本周中国钾肥大合同价格顺利达成，价格为 346 美元/吨， 钾肥景气度有望持续，本周市场开始关注估值较低的钾肥标的。 石油化工行业边际变化，本周由于伊朗以色列冲突升级，地缘风险溢价明显上升，进而推动油价明显上升，同 时，也推升了甲醇、碳酸锶、溴素的关注度；整体来说，今年油价走势超市场预期，核心推动因素还是地缘政治。 关税方面，本周主要关注三大事件，一是中美经贸磋商机制首次会议召开，中美原则上达成协议框架；二是美国联 邦上诉法院为特朗普关税"续命"，7 月底将迎关键听证；三是贝森 ...

关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 巴斯夫大中华区董事长兼总裁楼剑锋博士表示 ： "通过与国轩高科、中国燃气、巴斯夫杉杉的强强联合， 我们将进一步推动储能技术创新、清洁能源的广泛应用，同时创造协同效应，为共同的可持续目标注入强 劲动能。" 进固态电池群 ，加小编微信：13248122922 注：添加好友请备注 公司名称、姓名、职务，入群需发送1张您的纸质名片~ 会议详情 I C C S I N O 会议主办： 鑫椤资讯 会议时间： 2025年7月8-9日（8号报到） 本文来源：国轩高科 2025 年上海国际碳中和技术、产品与成果博览会（简称 "上海碳中和博览会"）期间，国轩高科与巴斯 夫、中国燃气控股有限公司（简称"中国燃气"）及 巴斯夫杉杉 电池材料有限公司（简称 "巴斯夫杉杉"） 达成四方战略合作。 本次合作将聚焦储能系统研发、新型电池材料应用、储能项目商业化推广及绿色能源解决方案，建立全面 战略合作关系，共同打造新能源产业链生态闭环。 同时四方将致力于推动储能技术创新、清洁能源规模化 应用及 "双碳"目标实现。 国轩高科执行总裁王启岁表示，国轩高科 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the public utility and environmental sectors, indicating an expectation of outperformance compared to the overall market [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the narrow fluctuations in global natural gas prices, with European prices rebounding due to supply-side influences. As of June 6, the Henry Hub spot price in the U.S. was $2.68/mmBtu, reflecting a weekly decline of 6.29%, while the Dutch TTF spot price increased by 7.59% to €35.88/MWh [4][7][13]. - The report emphasizes the acceleration of unmanned sanitation layouts driven by aging populations and advancements in AI technology, suggesting a significant growth potential in the sector [4][4]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies in the electricity sector such as hydroelectric and nuclear power, as well as natural gas and environmental sectors, with specific companies highlighted for their growth potential [4][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Natural Gas: Global Price Fluctuations and European Price Recovery - Global natural gas prices are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with European prices recovering due to supply-side factors. The report notes a significant increase in European gas prices, with the NBP spot price rising by 8.28% [7][13]. - The report indicates that U.S. natural gas inventories are rising rapidly, maintaining a loose overall market structure, but anticipates a divergence in price trends due to increased demand from rising temperatures in July [7][8][13]. 2. Weekly Market Review - The report states that the gas and power equipment sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index during the review period from May 30 to June 6, while the power and environmental sectors underperformed [30]. 3. Company and Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the State Energy Administration's initiatives to promote the construction of a new power system, focusing on innovative technologies and models [38]. - It also highlights the continuous improvement in ecological environment quality in China, as reported by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment [38]. 4. Key Company Valuation Table - The report provides a valuation table for key public utility companies, indicating various ratings such as "Buy" and "Hold" along with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025 [40][42].

2025 年6月6日——2025年上海国际碳中和技术、产品与成果博览会（简称"上海碳中和博览会"）期间，巴斯夫与合肥国轩高科动力能源有限公司（简 称"国轩高科"）、中国燃气控股有限公司（简称"中国燃气"）及巴斯夫杉杉电池材料有限公司（简称"巴斯夫杉杉"）达成四方战略合作。 本次合作将聚焦储能系统研发、新型电池材料应用、储能项目商业化推广及绿色能源解决方案，建立全面战略合作关系，共同打造新能源产业链生态闭 环。同时四方将致力于推动储能技术创新和清洁能源的规模化应用，助力"双碳"目标实现。 "要达成'双碳'目标，实现绿色转型，需要更多合作伙伴的加入。"巴斯夫大中华区董事长兼总裁楼剑锋博士表示，"通过与国轩高科、中国燃气、巴斯夫杉 杉的强强联合，我们将进一步推动储能技术创新、清洁能源的广泛应用，同时创造协同效应，为共同的可持续发展目标注入强劲动能。" 巴斯夫杉杉首席执行官龙志强表示，巴斯夫杉杉在电池材料行业深研22年，专注于自主研发，具备强大的技术创新实力，一直服务于电动汽车和消费电子 领域，助力新能源发展，"这次协同巴斯夫中国与产业链伙伴携手通过充分发挥各方在技术和资源方面的优势共同推动循环经济进程，我们深感鼓舞 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index (HSSCHKY) has shown a strong increase of 1.54% as of June 3, 2025, with notable gains in stocks such as China CITIC Bank (00998) up 4.88%, Swire Properties (01972) up 3.94%, and Agricultural Bank of China (01288) up 3.41% [2] - The Bosera Hang Seng High Dividend ETF (513690) has risen by 0.72%, with a latest price of 0.99 yuan and a trading volume of 61.74 million yuan [2] - The Bosera Hang Seng High Dividend ETF has a recent scale of 4.005 billion yuan and has seen a net financing amount of 1.201 million yuan in the previous trading day [3] Group 2 - The Bosera Hang Seng High Dividend ETF has achieved a net value increase of 32.41% over the past two years, ranking 120 out of 2187 in the index stock fund category [4] - The ETF has a maximum monthly return of 24.18% since inception, with an average monthly return of 4.99% [4] - The ETF's management fee is 0.50% and the custody fee is 0.10%, with a tracking error of 0.055% over the past six months [4] Group 3 - As of June 2, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index account for 28.55% of the index, including Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (01171) and Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings (00008) [5][7] - The weight of the top stock, Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, is 4.39%, while the second, Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings, has a weight of 2.66% [7]